LOCAL PRESS

Nikolic visits Ground Safety Zone (RTS/Tanjug)

During the visit to the members of the security forces in the Ground Safety Zone on the administrative line with Kosovo and Metohija, Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic has stated that the state is ready to respond to any security threat, but that at the same time Serbia values peace over anything else. Whoever might dare to cause any unpleasant situation in Serbia may count with the resistance form the entire country, and this unity of the army and the police shows it, pointed Nikolic. Since we have to deal with terrorism that spills over from the territory of Kosovo to Macedonia, and since we know what kind of policy stands behind it, we have clearly told the army and the gendarmerie of the police that they are at peace, but have to be aware that there can never be too much safety or training, the President underlined. He has congratulated all members of the security forces for organizing the life in that area and for the way they preserve the peace for all Serbian citizens.

Dacic: South Caucasus important for European stability (Tanjug)

Serbian Foreign Minister and chair of the OSCE Ivica Dacic has stated in Baku that the region of South Caucasus is of great importance for the stability in Europe, and pointed that conflict can only be solved through dialog. Also required is the political will from all sides involved, Dacic stressed in the meeting with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov. Dacic has expressed the good will of Serbia and as the chair of the OSCE to help in finding the solutions via its representatives and co-presidents of the Minsk Group. Serbia is especially sensitive to the issue of the territorial integrity, having in mind that many double standards were in play in Kosovo, so we believe the political will is important in approaching the solving of any dispute, he underlined. With a view to the bilateral relations, Dacic and Mammadyarov have agreed that the two countries are strategic partners and friends, and there is willingness to develop the relations on all levels.

Assistance for investments in Kosovo and Metohija (FoNet/Novosti/Danas)

Belgrade has hosted a round table entitled “Region of Success”, aimed at boosting the investment of Serbian companies in Kosovo and Metohija and the development of that region, with the youngest population and the highest unemployment rate in Europe. Calling on business people to invest there, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic emphasized that the state of Serbia would give significant tax and contribution benefits to investors. Serbia wants to have a free economy and will be removing political barriers so people can work and the state to realize as high profit as possible, said Vucic. A state’s policy is strong economy, the state being as strong as its economy is, said the Prime Minister. We have taken resolute measures and achieved results on the basis of which we can earmark part of the funds for subsidizing new work places in Kosovo and Metohija, stressed Vucic. He called on business people to open “daughter companies” in Kosovo and Metohija, both in areas inhabited by Serbs and those inhabited by Albanians and added that the best solutions for successful investments would be found in three months. In that respect, propositions of business people themselves are welcome so optimal results can be achieved, he said. Business people are guided by profit and the state, Vucic explained, does not want to exert pressure, but to encourage them to invest in new work places in Kosovo and Metohija, as that will contribute to the improvement of citizens’ standard and bring profit to investors. Thereby Serbia wants to help people see their own prospects and survival in Kosovo and Metohija, he said. Business activities will reduce their dependence on the state, which does not mean withdrawal of institutions, he said. To that end, talks with Pristina will continue in so that bureaucratic procedures can be reduced and easier access to the market enabled.

The round table, organized by the Office for Kosovo and Metohija in cooperation with the Ministry of Economy and the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, gathered representatives of the Serbian government, provisional institutions of self-government in Pristina, academic community and relevant professional institutions, diplomatic corps and civilian society, business people and associations. Thus, according to the Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric, the usual format of the meeting of the Serbian Prime Minister with Kosovo Serb representatives has been expanded, with a view to discussing a set of measures to be established in the next three months and to improve the economic situation in Kosovo and Metohija, which is a prerequisite for the survival of Serbs there. Emphasis was also laid on the importance of a meeting previously held with the Kosovo Chamber of Commerce. The Region of Success round table included three special sessions dedicated to the promotion of economic development, agriculture and environment and construction, traffic, infrastructure, mining and energy respectively.

It will take centuries for 200,000 Serbs to return (Politika, by Biljana Radomirovic)

Only two members of the Belosevic family returned to the territory of Kosovo and Metohija in the course of 2015, while officials note that this has been done by 4,000 Serbs, thus achieving “sustainable return”. Since 28 February, Zarko (60) and Stana (55) Belosevic have been in their home in the village of Crkolez, Istok municipality, in a ruined house, with around six hectares of land and eight thousand Dinars, how much they receive from the state of Serbia. Their son returned with them, but due to illness, he returned to Serbia proper. The Ministry for Returns and Communities in the Kosovo government say that the Belosevic family “returned voluntarily”. Stana claims the same in a telephone conversation with Politika, except that she notes that “it is better to die voluntarily on her own land than in a foreign land”. “Nobody has so far visited us. If it weren’t for relatives, neighbors, and the monks from the Decani Monastery, we would have starved. Only for insulin and medicines for the thyroid, I need six thousand Dinars every month,” says Stana Belosevic, who returned with her husband to “her land” after nearly 16 years. Stana and Zarko are just a number for statistics among the 200,000 Serbs who, running away from Albanian extremists and NATO forces in June 1999, searched for a new life outside Kosovo and Metohija. Now it is becoming more certain that, if something drastically doesn’t change, more precisely if Pristina and the international community do not exercise utmost good faith in their intention, it will take several centuries for the displaced Serbs, if return continues at this rate, to return to their homes. According to UNSCR 1244, the UNHCR conducts the official data and evidence on the return of displaced (of not only Serbs). On request, the UNHCR submits data to official Belgrade, i.e. to the Office for Kosovo and Metohija and the Kosovo Ministry for Returns and Communities. However, just as returns have been unfolding very slowly, even defeating, for 16 years, the exact number of returnees also varies, depending on who you address. Last week at the Security Council session, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic presented information on the return of 14 Serbs. In regard to this piece of news, Politika looked for an answer in the Office for Kosovo and Metohija and in the Kosovo Ministry for Returns. “In the first four months of this year, 46 returnees have been registered on the territory of Kosovo and Metohija,” Boro Tajic from the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, in the department for economic development and sustainable return, told Politika. Tajic couldn’t say how many are Serbs among those 46 returnees, but he specified that between 1999 and 2015, according to the UNHCR data, 12,145 Serbs returned to Kosovo and Metohija from Serbia proper. Of this number, “only some 4,000 realized sustainable return”. “The quarterly reports that are discussed in the UN Security Council point to the concerning trend of reduced returns of internally displaced persons. The main obstacles for sustainable returns are the security situation, lack of an efficient protection mechanism and access to rights, unresolved issue of return of property, inability to use usurped, destroyed housing and agricultural property, insufficient funds for reconstruction and construction of housing units, but also hindered access to public services and possibility to use the mother tongue,” says Tajic, stressing that the international community devotes less and less attention to displaced. Unlike the Office for Kosovo and Metohija, the Kosovo Ministry for Returns and Communities couldn’t give us the exact number of Serb returnees over the past 16 years. Uros Staletovic, advisor spokesperson, tells Politika that between 1999 and 2015, of the total of 250,000 displaced, 25,896 returned to Kosovo and Metohija, which is ten percent of the total displaced population. “In cooperation with the UNHCR, we have data that 2,874 Serbs returned between 2009 and 2014,” Staletovic tells Politika, and who also says that the security situation, usurped property, unemployment, inability to use the mother tongue, are only some of the problems faced by the returnees and those who intend to return.

REGIONAL PRESS

Stabilization and Association Agreement with Bosnia and Herzegovina enters into force today (Srna/Tanjug)

The Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between the EU and B&H enters into force today. The SAA establishes a close partnership between the EU and B&H and deepens the political, economic and trade ties between the two parties. It is from now on the main framework for the relations between the EU and B&H, further preparing the country for future EU membership. “Today’s full entry into force of the Stabilization and Association Agreement is a milestone on B&H’s EU path. New chapter begins. Political clarity, decisive action and a real, coordinated effort by institutions at all levels are now needed to develop and implement the reform agenda. Tangible results will be fundamental for the Council to consider a membership application in the future. An overwhelming majority of B&H citizens want their country to join the EU and the leadership of the country needs to redouble its engagement and meet citizens’ expectations,” said Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the Commission. “I welcome the entry into force of the SAA as a defining moment in the relations between the EU and Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as an agreement which firmly sets B&H on an EU-accession path. At the same time, the SAA also brings new responsibilities stemming from its implementation and for B&H authorities to deliver upon. The Commission will spare no effort assisting the country’s authorities in the implementation of the necessary reform agenda,” said Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations.

Daily recruitments of “Islamic state: members in B&H (Srna)

The Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik warned on Saturday that whatever happens to the Islamic State has a special dimension in B&H, where the everyday activities related to the recruitment of new members of that terrorist organization are ongoing. “To fight the Islamic State idea in B&H means daily care and effort to protect us as much as possible from both the `Islamic State’ and the ideas it brings,” Dodik told Srna near Krusedol Monastery on Fruska Gora, where he attends a traditional Pan-Serbian Assembly. He pointed out that conquests of a terrorist organization Islamic State in Iraq and Syria worry him as a statesman and concern him as a person. “Every single person in the world, who does care about peace and stability, is concerned about latest conquests of `Islamic State’ in Syria and Iraq. If you lead a country, as I do, this makes a grand additional responsibility,” said Dodik. He has recalled that B&H, thanks to radical Islam, is the country with the largest number of those who went fighting on behalf of the Islamic State. “Given the number of B&H population, this country recruits the largest number of militants in the world who fight for `Islamic State`. This is because many Bosniaks have succumbed to both the idea and the programs of radical Islam,” said Dodik. He said that many Bosniaks were killed fighting for the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. “Some died fighting for Islamic State, but many of them will return to B&H. Their idea to fight for radical Islam, I am sure, will not stop when they return to Bosnia,” said Dodik. According to him, everyday activities related to the recruitment of new members of Islamic State are ongoing in B&H. “After recruiting process, the recruited ones, indoctrinated with the idea of radical Islam, go to Syria and Iraq. They even do it with a great deal of pride. Obviously, this causes anxiety, and a fear for further development of the situation in Bosnia,” Dodik said.

“Orange revolution” targets Republika Srpska and Macedonia (Srna)

The RS and Macedonia are now targeted by the “Orange Revolution”, because these are two undefeated elements in the “banana countries” chain that the West creates in the Balkans, it was stated at “Orange Balkans” panel held in Andricgrad. Political analyst Dragomir Andjelkovic said that the Balkans region is generally conquered and is in most cases consisted of the countries that have agreed to be “banana country” controlled by someone from abroad. “At this very moment, the exceptions are RS and Macedonia, which are targeted now,” said Andjelkovic. A moderator of the meeting, journalist and military analyst, Miroslav Lazanski, believes that the Balkans region is still not “orange”, but there are attempts in this direction, including the attempts towards the RS which is potentially compromised. “There was an attempt in the Federation of B&H last year, when the riots in the streets threatened to be transferred to the territory of RS. The recent attempt is the violent overthrow of the legally elected government in Macedonia,” said Lazanski. President of Serbian patriotic movement Zavetnici, Stefan Stamenkovski, considers that the orange revolution attempt took place in the pre-election process before the general elections last year, when Western NGOs received lots of money and made a grand effort to unite the opposition, and sent some of its elements to additional training in Ljubljana and Vienna afterwards. He congratulated the citizens and the leadership of RS for recognizing the threats timely, treating them in the best possible manner and avoiding inter-ethnic conflict. “The RS political leadership did not fail the exam, but did the job in the best possible way and RS, although the entity with reduced powers and competencies compared to what it got in Dayton, happened to be the freest territory in the Balkans,” stated Stamenkovski. According to him, a similar scenario was attempted in Macedonia.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Serbia looks to the West (The Hill, by Miodrag Vlahovic, 31 May 2015)

Over the past quarter-century in the Western Balkans, the members of my generation have witnessed and worked toward a historic change – from the tragic war and destruction to the growth of free-market democracies.

Since the difficult days when seven new nations emerged from the former Yugoslavia, we have striven to build modern economies, free societies, and peaceful relations with our neighbors. Our progress has been steady, if not always easy. Joining Western institutions, especially NATO and the European Union (EU), has been one of our most important goals. During 2006, when Montenegro regained its independence, I was honored to serve my country, first as foreign minister and then as ambassador to the United States. In the latter role, I still remember how honored I felt to present my credentials to President George W. Bush. The ceremony was a signpost on Montenegro’s long return journey toward full participation in the Western community of nations. Aleksandar Vucic, the prime minister of our neighbor, Serbia, will be making his first visit to Washington this week), to meet with Vice President Biden and key Congressional leaders from both parties. Prime Minister Vucic has said he will ask for U.S. support for Serbia’s candidacy for EU membership. My modest advice to Prime Minister Vucic: assure these American leaders that Serbia will continue its journey of change, a pathway that leads naturally toward the West. It would be important for Serbia, and for the whole Western Balkans. From economic reforms to international outreach, Vucic is preparing Serbia to join the European Community once the EU opens the door. The government of Serbia has made significant progress under Prime Minister Vucic: cutting unnecessary spending, reducing its budget deficit, privatizing state-owned businesses, and adopting business-friendly policies to encourage domestic entrepreneurs and foreign investors. More needs to be done. On the diplomatic front, Serbia is conducting a difficult, but promising dialogue with Kosovo, raising hopes that historic adversaries can become better neighbors. In another departure from the discords of the past, Vucic recently concluded the first visit by a Serbian prime minister to Tirana, the Albanian capital. Both sides confirmed there that, despite their profound differences regarding Kosovo, they are committed to deepening cooperation between their two nations. Recognizing Serbia’s significant progress, the EU has encouraged its bid for membership, including at a recent meeting of foreign ministers of the EU member states. Still, Serbia, as the other Western Balkans aspirants for EU membership, must make progress on one more front – strengthening the rule of law and justice, namely in the framework of negotiating Chapters 23 and 24 of the EU accession negotiations. EU membership is not an end itself. It is a path to reforms that serve the candidate countries’ national interests. Legal and judicial reforms are instrumental to economic freedom, a vibrant private sector, and a business-friendly environment that Serbia–just like the other EU candidates–badly needs to foster prosperity, employment and foreign and domestic investment. An economically stronger and politically stable Serbia will be beneficial to the entire region. In his meetings with U.S. officials, Vucic should offer assurances that his government will move forward on these fronts. As a former chairman of both of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Judiciary Committee, Biden is an ideal interlocutor as Serbia sends the message that it is bringing its legal system into accord with European norms, as well as that it is making decisive steps to normalize and harmonize Serbia’s relations with other Western Balkan nations. As Vucic can explain to his American hosts, the success of Serbia’s EU accession process would provide an impetus for positive political and economic development of the whole Western Balkans. For the EU and the U.S., Serbia offers an untapped market, as well as proximity to Eastern Europe, with a skilled labor force and investment opportunities. Just as importantly, Serbia’s engagement with Kosovo, despite all the difficulties, can serve as a positive model for other trouble spots in the Balkans, such as the currently crisis-racked Macedonia. One should not forget that Vucic has also already upgraded the NATO-Serbia relationship by signing the Individual Partnership Action Plan last January. Therefore, Serbia is on the right track in the context of its relations to NATO, which remains a challenging and long-term task given the history of the war in Kosovo and the resulting NATO intervention in 1999. For Serbia, as well as for my country, Montenegro, the EU represents our natural home, and the U.S. is our natural ally. Working together and with the assistance of our American friends, both of our countries can come closer to our common dream of a Europe that is, at long last, whole and free, prosperous and at peace.

Vlahovic was Montenegro’s foreign minister in 2006 and ambassador to the United States from 2006 to 2010. He is the owner of MConsult, Ltd., a Montenegrin consulting firm.

From Albania to Bosnia: Brothers Need Arms (BIRN, by Fred Abrahams, 1 June 2015)

In early 1990s Albania offered its help to the United States, which was looking for ways to support the Bosnian Muslims side in conflict in former Yugoslavia

By late 1992 Albania had committed itself fully to the West, and in particular to the United States. Still, Berisha [Sali Berisha, at the time president of Albania] courted Arab governments and Islamic organizations, which had started coming to Albania the previous year. Albanian government delegations visited Egypt, Libya, Kuwait and Iran to seek financial support.

In December 1992 Berisha traveled to Saudi Arabia and unexpectedly announced that Albania had joined the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). Albania had obtained observer status in the conference one year before, mostly to entice aid from Muslim states. Most Albanians expressed shock. To them, Albania rested squarely in the western camp. As one analyst later wrote, Albania at the time was surviving on humanitarian aid from Catholic Italy and remittances from Albanians in Orthodox Greece. Parliament refused to ratify the agreement and some of the country’s intellectuals threatened to convert to Christianity. In part, Berisha’s decision reflected Albania’s East-West divide. Like an American crossing the street in London, the country did not know which direction to look. The political allegiances were with the West but many of the cultural traditions stemmed from the East. Berisha’s decision also reflected a strategic choice. Despite the rhetoric, the West was providing limited aid and Arab states had promised help. The condition for economic support, Berisha informed the government, was Albania joining the Organization of the Islamic Conference. He hoped this would provide desperately needed aid and push the West to give more. “There is no tendency to see religion play a political role in Albania,” Berisha said at the time. To stress the point, he invited Pope John Paul II and NATO Secretary General Manfred Werner to Albania. Albania soon became the first former communist country to request membership in the NATO alliance. Another reason for Albania joining the Organization of the Islamic Conference was the war in Bosnia, pitting Bosnian Muslims against Serbs. According to former senior Democratic Party and Albanian government officials, Berisha offered Albania as a “gateway” to the Bosnian Muslims for arms and foreign fighters, despite the UN arms embargo on Yugoslavia in place since September 1991. He offered this with the knowledge of at least the United States, they said, which was looking for ways to support the Bosnian Muslims and establish a balance of power between the warring parties. According to media accounts and U.S. government documents, the December 1992 OIC meeting in Jeddah, when Albania became a full member, was convened specifically to discuss the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, who had visited Albania two months before, took part, as did the West’s chief negotiators for the Yugoslav war, Cyrus Vance and David Owen. According to a diplomatic cable to Washington from the U.S. consul in Jeddah, almost every conference participant was making the same point: “Bosnia must be allowed to receive arms to help in its defense.” Prime Minister of the Kosovo Albanian government in exile, Bujar Bukoshi, was also in Jeddah at the time, and he had participated in previous meetings of the OIC. Saudi Arabia’s King Fahd opened the meeting, flanked by Izetbegovic and Berisha, saying that Bosnia should have the possibility to obtain the weapons it needs for self-defense. Izetbegovic followed with an impassioned ten-minute speech, in which he asked whether the world’s “indifference” was because the victims in Bosnia were Muslim or because the world did not care. Referring to the arms embargo on the former Yugoslavia, he accused those who “bind our hands” of being accomplices in Bosnia’s tragedy, and then asked for “limited quantities” of defensive weapons. Berisha followed with what the U.S. cable on the meeting called “an anti-Serb diatribe.” He said that Serbian forces had decapitated children and raped women, and warned that war in Kosovo was “just around the corner.” “In contrast to Izetbegovic’s address, which was well-received, was the speech by the President of Albania, Sali Berisha,” the U.S. cable from Jeddah read. “The Albanian leader’s address, delivered in English which was hard to decipher at times, amounted to a diatribe against Serbia and, especially, against what he called the ‘Serbian Orthodox fundamentalists.’” In the end, a conference communique stressed Bosnia’s right to self-defense and called on the United Nations Security Council to lift the arms embargo. It urged member states to “extend their cooperation to the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina in the exercise of its inherent right to individual and collective self-defense.” Behind the scenes, Albania became a transit point for arms to the Bosnian Muslims. As Berisha later admitted in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera, Albania also provided some of its own ammunition at the time to what he called “friendly states.” Some Islamic fighters also made their way through Albania en route to Bosnia during this time. After the war ended in 1995, some of these fighters came to Albania, hoping to make it a European base. This is an excerpt from the new book Modern Albania: From Dictatorship to Democracy in Europe that did not get included in the chapter about militant Islamists in Albania and the country’s close cooperation in counter-terrorism with the United States, including the 1998 arrest and rendition of terrorist suspected to Egypt. Book Modern Albania by Fred Abrahams covers the fall of Communism and the turbulent transition after four decades of labor camps, thought police and one-party rule. The book is based on hundreds of interviews, declassified US government documents, and more than 20 years of work in the Balkans.

Macedonia Opposition, PM to Resume Crisis Talks With EU Help (Bloomberg, by Elizabeth Konstantinova, 29 May 2015)

The Republic of Macedonia’s premier and his opposition rival will resume talks next week to defuse a crisis over a wire-tapping scandal and a deadly clash with insurgents. The negotiations are planned for June 2-3 with the mediation of the European Union Commissioner Johannes Hahn, opposition leader Zoran Zaev said during a one-day visit to Sofia on Friday. Gruevski’s resignation will help Macedonia step up accession talks with the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, he said at a joint briefing with Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov. “Our place is in the EU and NATO and we hope that with the help of European institutions we’ll find a solution, because Macedonia’s problems affect the whole region,” Zaev said. “We don’t want to repeat the scenarios in Ukraine and earlier in Serbia.” The former Yugoslav nation is grappling with its deepest political turmoil since its independence in 1991. Zaev has leaked what he says are wire taps that show abuse of power by government officials, including Gruevski, whose administration denies wrongdoing. Along with the political standoff, 22 people died in a battle between police and Albanian insurgents in the northeastern town of Kumanovo earlier this month. Hahn “will stress to all concerned the urgency of settling their differences” during his visit to Skopje, according to the European Commission in Brussels. Zaev and Gruevski’s previous meeting in Strasbourg, France on May 19 with European Parliament members didn’t produce results apart from a commitment to EU integration.

Special Envoy

“A special EU envoy for Macedonia will be needed to help in this process,” if a solution isn’t achieved next week, Zaev said. Macedonia’s opposition proposes to set up a transition government for six to nine months, that would prepare fair elections, he said. The country of 2 million people borders EU members Greece and Bulgaria, as well as Serbia, Albania, and Kosovo. A candidate for EU membership for a decade, it has been hampered to join the world’s largest trading bloc by neighboring Greece, which objects to the use of name Macedonia that is also a northern province of the Mediterranean country. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s allegations of outside forces fomenting the political crisis in Macedonia shows it’s siding with Gruevski and meddling in the country’s affairs, Zaev said in an interview with Bulgarian National Radio earlier on Friday. Gruevski supports the so-called Turkish Stream pipeline proposed by Russia to run as an extension of a link between Russia and Turkey via Macedonia to Europe. It’s OAO Gazprom’s latest plan to deliver gas to southern and central Europe after the state-run gas exporter abandoned the $45 billion South Stream project in December on opposition from the EU.

Russia Concerned That External Forces at Play in Macedonia Protests (Sputnik, 30 May 2015)

The wave of “color revolutions,” launched from the outside, has reached Macedonia, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Saturday. SINGAPORE, May 30 (Sputnik) – The “color revolutions” were a series of regime changes caused by protests in several post-Soviet republics in 2000s. The concept has also been used to describe the revolutions in the Middle East countries during the Arab Spring protests that broke out across the Middle East in 2010-2011. “The epidemic of ‘color revolutions’ that earlier struck the Middle East swept away like a hurricane entire states in the region,” Antonov said at the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore Saturday. He added that the “disease” has affected some European countries as well. “We are witnessing the unrest in Macedonia, outrageously orchestrated from the outside,” Antonov pointed out. Over recent months, violent political protests have been held in Macedonia, with numerous reports of civil rights violations. Earlier this month, crowds of people took part in an anti-government corruption and police brutality demonstration in the Macedonian capital Skopje, organized by the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, led by Zoran Zaev. He urged the protesters not to leave the streets until current Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski steps down. A group of protesters has set up a tent camp outside government buildings in central Skopje.

Macedonia Crisis Linked to Fate of Turkish Stream, Russia’s EU Envoy Says (Novinite, 30 May 2015)

The key issue about Russia’s Turkish Stream project is in what direction the future gas pipeline will go after reaching Turkey’s border with Greece, Russia’s ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov has said. There are three options, three countries after the pipeline enters Greece, Russian news agency Interfax quoted Chizhov as saying in an interview. “One is Bulgaria, relationship with it has accumulated enough negative experience; Albania, where the situation has never been too calm, and Macedonia,” Chizhov said. “[In Macedonia] we see an acute political crisis, actively heated from outside,” the Russian diplomat added, echoing earlier comments by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. While no one will directly admit that the crisis in Macedonia is linked to the fate of Turkish Stream, “the analogy suggests itself”, Chizhov said when asked whether the project could become a second edition of the abandoned South Stream. Russian gas giant Gazprom announced on December 2014 it is abandoning the project designed to carry Russian gas across the Black Sea to Bulgaria and then to central and eastern Europe over objections from the European Commission. The planned Turkish Stream pipeline is set to have an annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters of gas, same as South Stream. Around 14 billion cubic meters of Russian will be supplied to Turkey, while the remainder will be pumped to a hub on Turkey’s border with Greece for delivery to potential customers in Europe.

Zero problem turns into zero strategy? (Today’s Zaman, by Halil Göksan, 29 May 2015)

Two weeks ago, a terrorist attack occurred in Macedonia, followed by huge protests and rallies held by both the opposition and the government. There is a fear that this is going to destabilize the whole Balkan region and end in violent conflicts, similar to the one that shattered Ukraine. The comparison to Ukraine is not inadvertent. On the contrary, it points to the fact that the Balkans is increasingly being considered the new battleground between Russia and the West. The new geopolitics of energy is currently the main issue of discord between these two poles. The borders that the energy line coming from Russia has to cross in order to reach the countries in Central Europe constitute an important factor in the new geopolitical battles of the big powers. This is the reason behind the attention that the Turkish Stream project is attracting among analysts. The fact that this is currently the focal issue in many politicians’ statements would lead every political analyst to conclude that Turkey, a country that claims to be a regional power, will try to reaffirm its influence in the Balkans and its importance in geopolitical games. So far, it doesn’t seem to be the case. The current disputes that deteriorate the energy cooperation between Russia and the EU can easily be instrumentalized by Turkey for the purpose of becoming an energy hub in the region. However, the lack of an official position from Ankara regarding the recent developments in the Balkans — which can potentially threaten the future of the Turkish Stream — points to the weakness of Turkish foreign policymaking. While the EU prefers to diversify its energy sources in order to cut its dependence on Russia, the officials in Moscow aim to use the Turkish Stream project to penalize Ukraine for its rapprochement with the EU and to increase Russian influence in the Balkans. The South Stream project, which was planned to bypass Ukraine and reach Bulgaria via the Black Sea, was an initial attempt to realize Russian interests in this region. However, it had to be canceled due to the Bulgarian refusal to join the project that came as a result of its conformity with EU regulations. This led to significant modifications to the South Stream project, including renaming it the Turkish Stream following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s request to make it a symbol of Turkey’s increasing importance to regional and global politics of energy. Despite the crucial function that Turkey has in the geopolitics of energy, it seems that its foreign policy capacity is not ready to take up this role. The rising instability in the Balkans and the lack of a firm response from Ankara is proof of this. Although the Balkans has an important place on the Turkish foreign policy agenda, Turkey seems to be unaware of the problems in the region and disinterested in the possible consequences. The historical, cultural and economic relations that Turkey has with the countries in the Balkans make the recent destabilization a crucial event that has to be at the top of the current agenda of foreign policymakers in Ankara. In addition, the fact that the future of the Turkish Stream is put under question due to the rising violence and instability makes the question of the Balkans even more salient for Turkish diplomacy. However, the attention that Turkish officials are paying to the new question of the Balkans does not match its salience for the country’s economy and diplomacy. While Russian and Western state representatives at the highest level are fully engaged in the recent political developments in this region, thus trying to reaffirm their interests in the Balkans, it is banal how Erdoğan used the opportunity of his visit to the Balkans last week to implicitly call on foreign countries to get involved in helping him realize his domestic political interests instead of dealing with more internationally important issues. The Russian foreign affairs minister defined the recent developments in the Balkans as another scenario prepared by the EU and the US, whose purpose is to hurt Russia’s interests in the region. The attempts to stage a “colored revolution” in Macedonia together with the efforts to awaken radical Albanian terrorist groups constitute a Western strategy for revenge on Macedonia — and Serbia — for their refusal to support Western-led sanctions against Russia, according to Sergey Lavrov. In addition, the Western-planned destabilization of the region will be conducive to realizing the plan to stall the process of building the Turkish Stream and thus reduce Russian influence in the region. The West, on the other hand, refuses to accept the claim that there is any form of geopolitical games and interests behind the recent destabilization in the Balkans. The ambassadors of EU countries and the US declared a few weeks ago that the Macedonian government is responsible for the recent developments, with some of them even calling for its resignation and supporting the rallies organized by the opposition. These events led many political analysts and politicians to conclude that the Balkans is currently experiencing the scenario that previously was imposed on Ukraine, and that this region is becoming the new “apple of discord” between the great powers. While it is quite evident why Russia and the West are very much engaged into what is happening in the Balkans, it is pretty much a challenging endeavor to make sense of Ankara’s behavior. Maybe the fact that Turkey has an important strategic relationship with both conflicting sides — with the US and the EU through NATO, and with Russia through economic cooperation for the realization of the Turkish Stream — dictates a neutral position in the form of a wait-and-see strategy. This naïve and shallow strategy of Turkey went so far that Russia felt comfortable to unilaterally start the construction of the Turkish Stream though an official binding agreement between Russia and Turkey is still lacking.

Another possible explanation is that Ankara does not really have any idea how to react with regard to the current events in the Balkans. If this is true, two important conclusions can be drawn. First, it proves that Turkish foreign policy is experiencing a period of weakness and confusion, which are manifested through the lack of a clear official position on issues that have been for a long time considered to be of crucial importance for Turkish diplomacy. Second, the consequences of this confusion will be fatal in terms of future Turkish influence in the Balkans. The West and Russia will continue to be the main players in this region, pushing Turkey away from taking part in formulating important political decisions for the region, thus discrediting its claim to be a regional power. The crucial question that pops up as a result of these recent developments is: Will these new events in the neighborhood of Turkey prove once again that its foreign policy does not stand up to its claim of bring a regional power, as we have witnessed many times before in the case of the Middle East? It remains to be seen.

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* Halil Göksan is a Ph.D. candidate in international law at the University of Geneva. Gjorgji Kostojchinoski is a master’s student in international relations at the Graduate Institute in Geneva.

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