LOCAL PRESS

Dacic: Maintain stability in South Caucasus region (RTS)

Serbian Foreign Minister and the OSCE Chair Ivica Dacic said during his visit to Armenia that maintaining stability in the South Caucasus region is in the interest of that international organization and efforts are being invested in establishing trust among countries in the region.

“We as an organization, and Serbia as the country holding the chairmanship, will give our full contribution to making this work successful,” Dacic said after meeting with Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian. Dacic also commended the cooperation between the Armenian authorities and the OSCE Mission in Armenia, and underlined his support to the Minsk Group that acts as an intermediary in finding a solution to the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, and his Special Representative for the South Caucasus Angelo Gnaedinger. “I think that is very important for the development and reforms in this country, and that the OSCE should be regarded as a partner,” Dacic said, adding that the OSCE strives to preserve peace and security in the interest of citizens and all peoples. “Serbia and Armenia are friendly countries and efforts must be made to develop their bilateral relations in all areas, ranging from political to economic ties,” Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said. “Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic and I attach importance to the many years of friendship between the two countries and I would particularly like to stress that we appreciate Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic’s attendance at the commemoration of the centenary of the Armenian genocide,” Nalbandian noted after a meeting with his Serbian counterpart.

Gasic: Serbia appreciates Spain’s principled position not to recognize Kosovo (Tanjug)

Spanish Defense Minister Pedro Morenes met in Madrid with Serbian Defense Minister Bratislav Gasic and discussed the bilateral defense cooperation. Gasic and Morenes agreed that the Spain-Serbia relations are very good and growing stronger, the Serbian Defense Ministry said in a statement. Serbia greatly appreciates the principled position of Spain not to recognize the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo, Gasic stressed at the meeting. The Ministers agreed that the bilateral defense cooperation is very good, and pointed to the joint engagement in the UN-mandated peacekeeping mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The Ministers also discussed Serbia’s cooperation with NATO within the framework of the Partnership for Peace program and the strengthening of partnership with the adoption of the Individual Partnership Action Plan. Gasic presented the military memorial medal for the contribution to the defense system of Serbia to Spanish Brigadier General Andres Capa Huidobro, who served as Commander of Sector East in the UNIFIL mission, the release states.

Accounts of municipalities in northern Kosovo and Metohija unblocked (Politika)

After exactly three months, the interim institutions in Pristina unblocked the accounts of the four municipalities in northern Kosovo and Metohija, so that they dispose already today with the money they have in the budget, which is intended for capital investments, goods, services and subsidies. The leaderships of northern Kosovska Mitrovica, Zvecan, Leposavic and Zubin Potok have in their municipals registers a total of two million Euros, and today they will sign the Agreement on Cooperation and Understanding with the Kosovo ministries in charge so they will be able to realize projects that “had been on hold” over the blockade of the account. The mayors of Leposavic and Zubin Potok, Dragan Jablanovic and Vucina Jankovic respectively, as well as the President of the Northern Mitrovica Assembly Ksenija Bozovic, told Politika that they will start the realization of capital investments (infrastructure, investments in healthcare and education, aid for socially vulnerable population…) with the money that has been approved for this year, but they also expect funding that the Kosovo ministries in charge, the Fund for the North, and the EU allocated for different projects – a total of around 25 million Euros. “For the time being we can only use the money from the municipal account,” Bozovic tells Politika. “We have a little more than 300,000 Euros for capital investments, goods, services and subsidies, while we can count on the money from the Kosovo ministries, Fund for the North and the EU donations only once the projects are approved. Under the condition that the funds are approved (each municipality receives 1,5 billion Euros from the Fund for the North, as well as 500,000 Euros from EU donations, along with the money from Pristina), we plan the construction of a bus and railway station, while the EU would additionally donate money for the construction of the municipal building. Vucina Jankovic recalls that the thereby approved money, other than from the Fund for the North, must be spent by 25 December this year. “We would have to realize the projects by the end of the year. Only the money from the Fund for the North can be transferred for the following year. We are already in June, we need to pass through complicated administrative procedure, but I believe the money will be approved based on the projects,” says Mayor Jankovic. He notes that these funds will not be used for the construction of the regional landfill that should resolve the acute problem of Zvecan, northern Kosovo Mitrovica and Leposavic.

Serbian-Bulgarian business forum (Radio Serbia, by Ranka Pavlovic)

The relations of Serbia and Bulgaria are friendly and on the best possible political level, which represents a good chance for the strengthening of the economic cooperation and growing trade, it has been jointly assessed by the participants in the Serbian-Bulgarian business forum in the Serbian Chamber of Commerce. This conference has gathered around 100 local and Bulgarian business companies. Serbian Minister of Energy Aleksandar Antic has said that the completion of big infrastructural projects is supposed to enable the development of the economic cooperation between the two countries. In a year and a half at latest Serbia will finish the eastern section of the Corridor 10, i.e. the highway from Nis to Dimitrovgrad, thus opening the faster connection with Bulgaria. Antic has added that there is an excellent air line with daily flights from Belgrade to Sofia, and added Serbia would start the modernization of and electrification of the railroad Nis-Dimitrovgrad, in order to further reinforce the traffic infrastructure. According to him, the gas line interconnection could strengthen the mutual energy security and open the avenues for diversification of the energy sources. There is also a great potential for the joint appearance in the third markets, especially in the counties that have free trade arrangements with Serbia, such as Russia, for example.

Bulgarian Minister of Economy Bozidar Lukarski has emphasized that his country wishes to reinforce the friendly relations with Serbia and increase the economic collaboration. The business forum is a good opportunity for the companies from the two countries to start joint ventures. Strong potential has been noted in the fields of tourism, electronics, IT, chemical and pharmaceutical industry, health protection, agriculture and food industry. Lukarski has said that both sides should take advantage of the geographical proximity, low transport costs, good political relations and linguistic similarities, in order to improve their economic cooperation. He has also highlighted that the completion of the highway between Nis and Sofia is very important for the growth of the trade exchange, which amounted to 600 million euro last year. Serbia is in the 5th place when it comes to export and import with Bulgaria, among the non-EU countries, as well as the 5th favorite tourist destination for Bulgarian citizens.

The president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce Marko Cadez has said that Bulgaria is 17th on the list of Serbia’s foreign trade partners. For years, the Serbian side was in the deficit, but it was considerably diminished last year. The possibilities of long-term cooperation are seen in energy supply, traffic, agriculture, furniture making, automotive industry, tourism and construction, he said. Cadez pointed to the positive example of cooperation in the joint construction of the medicament factory in Stari Banovci, which was realized by the pharmaceutical companies “Ivancic and sons” from Serbia, and the “Sopharma” from Bulgaria.

REGIONAL PRESS

Sarovic: Team formed to create coordination mechanism (Oslobodjenje)

Mirko Sarovic, Deputy Chair of the Council of Ministers and foreign trade and economic relations minister, told reporters after a meeting in Sarajevo that the chair of the Council of Ministers at today’s session discussed the forming of a team to create a coordination mechanism.

“The team was formed, it would seem, today. It received certain instructions and tasks, has a certain deadline in which it must offer a proposal, or the first version of a coordination mechanism to submit to the consideration of the Council of Ministers,” said Minister Sarovic, adding that he thinks the first deadline will be a month from now. We expect, he said, that the team will comprise high-ranking state officials in B&H institutions and the entities doing their part of the work and ”through procedure we will come to one of the key documents expected of B&H”. Minister Sarovic said that the obligation is to adopt a coordination mechanism, adding that it is absolutely clear coming from the statement adopted by the B&H Presidency and Parliamentary Assembly. “How the mechanism will look in its details, we’ll see about that. After all, the basis of the new coordination mechanism will be to achieve a degree of consensus on this issue of coordination in the previous legislature, which was not done,” said Sarovic. Denis Zvizdic, chair of the Council of Ministers, said yesterday that at the session of the Council of Ministers today a coordination team would form, which with the European integration directorate would have a deadline of 30 days to create a coordination mechanism that would be acceptable to both the acquis communautaire and the laws at all levels of government in B&H.

Cvijanovic: B&H Council of Ministers cannot appoint RS government representatives (Srna)

The Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Zeljka Cvijanovic told Srna that B&H Council of Ministers cannot form a team to draft a coordination mechanism to which it would appoint RS government representatives without previously conducting consultations with the Government and getting its approval. “They must learn that RS is a party to the negotiations and talks, and that we are functioning in keeping with determined procedures, and not that they ‘generously’ offer us ‘a whole seat’ in some team tasked with drafting a document, without asking us anything about it,” Cvijanovic said. She said that only the RS Government, and not anyone else, should decide on the participation of its representatives in any task force. “If some government level intends to form a joint task force, then it should first consult the RS Government, determine a number of participants of each side through these consultations and define principles on which the operations of the task force are based,” Cvijanovic said. She said that no one from the B&H Council of Ministers informed the RS Cabinet nor did it consult it about drafting a new proposal of a coordination mechanism. “It means that they decided to ignore us and to serve us ready solutions. They did it in several more cases when they turned a deaf ear to negative opinions of RS Ministries. In addition to this, there is another problem here. In order to draft a new proposal of a coordination mechanism, the Council of Ministers should first reject a proposal which is a result of a joint work of all government levels, which is before the Council,” Cvijanovic said. She said that while it was drafted, all necessary procedures were respected regarding the formation of a task force, the number of participants, and principles on which their work is based. In addition to this, the RS Cabinet and Parliament approved this proposal, and opposition MPs, who are now in power at the B&H level, also voted for it. “We in the RS Cabinet insist that the Council of Ministers first decide on this proposal. We want to know if parties from RS, who are now in power at the B&H level, changed their minds and dropped the proposal for which they earlier voted in the RS Parliament. We also expect them to explain what is bad in this proposal – maybe the fact that it stipulates that decisions are brought by consensus, and not by outvoting as Bosniak parties want, and they think that it is better for them to offend the RS institutions than Bakir Izetbegovic,” Cvijanovic told Srna. In order to start drafting a new proposal of coordination mechanism, Cvijanovic said, the Council of Ministers must first reject the one which was submitted to the Council for consideration. “Also, if they reject it, they need to explain what is wrong with this proposal since we spent the whole year to draft it together with representatives all other government levels. Then they must consult the RS Cabinet about a possible formation of a team tasked with drafting a new proposal and respect all procedures of which I earlier spoke,” said the Prime Minister. Cvijanovic said that conclusions in this regard have been defined and that the Cabinet will adopt them at a session tomorrow. “The second set of conclusions will pertain to reforms we implemented in cooperation with the World Bank, and the current parliamentary majority with the SDS, PDP and NDP blocked the ratification of this arrangement which prevented the drawing of KM 35 million to the RS Budget,” she said. Cvijanovic said that before the Cabinet defines any reform agenda with the B&H level, funds that belong to RS citizens on the basis of business registration reform conducted by the Cabinet will have to be returned. “They have a majority, let them then do their part of the job, since we did our part. What is the point of signing any reform agendas with the B&H level when they will block them? The RS Budget will not collapse for KM 35 million, but this is about principles and rules of behavior,” Cvijanovic said. She said that the RS Cabinet wants to know if it has credible partners at the B&H level for implementation of reforms, or they, including parties from RS, will constantly speak about reforms and will then block funds intended for RS citizens.”

Cvijanovic: We will never agree to anything derogating from RS (Srna/RTRS)

Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Zeljka Cvijanovic said that constitutional jurisdictions must be respected when it comes to a coordination mechanism, and added that the RS Government will never agree to anything that is derogating from the Constitution, RS and its institutions. “We are for cooperation and partnership and we demonstrated this in countless ways, but we do not allow anyone to deceive us. This is a too serious matter. Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Council of Ministers, and particularly the B&H Presidency, cannot arbitrate about things that are not in their jurisdiction,” Cvijanovic told Srna and RTRS. She said that there is still in the B&H Council of Ministers a proposal of a coordination mechanism which was not drafted by RS only or the FB&H only or the Council of Ministers only, having in mind that two to three years ago, the Council of Ministers formed a joint interdepartmental group composed of representatives of all government levels. She said that this proposal was accepted by the RS Parliament and that everyone voted for it, both the opposition and the ruling parties. “I would like to see how the SDS, the PDP and the NDP, parties that are in power at the B&H level, will act now, and I would like to ask them if this means that they dropped the proposal they voted for together with us in the RS Parliament, if they changed their minds overnight and why they allowed that a new coordination mechanism be drafted without previously asking for a vote to be held on a mechanism which is still before the B&H Council of Ministers as a proposal,” Cvijanovic said. She said that several things are crucial in a coordination mechanism, and the respect for constitutional jurisdictions is in the first place. “The Constitution is clear as to what belongs to whom in meeting the European obligations and who should do what, and a coordination mechanism serves you to be coordinated in this process of accession to the EU and to avoid, as was the case till now, that RS is ahead when it comes to harmonization of domestic legislation with the EU legislation or in some other segments, and that others are lagging behind,” Cvijanovic told RTRS. She explained that the coordination mechanism is needed for a joint approach, for defining plans and for actions in keeping with these plans, and finally, she said, certain joint bodies should exist which should evaluate this. “It is important that everywhere in the world, namely, in complex EU countries, there are mechanisms by way of which disputes, which are constitutional in nature, are being resolved. This means that it is possible for two government levels to be in dispute over who will meet a certain European obligation, and these disputes are most often in connection with constitutional jurisdictions,” Cvijanovic said. She stressed that a proposal of a coordination mechanism which was presented in Sarajevo has shortcomings, not only because it did not include RS Government representatives but because it appeared even though there already exists a proposal before the B&H Council of Ministers on which a vote should be held. “It is flawed also because it says that the Council of Ministers and the B&H Presidency are those who are resolving disputes on the road to the EU pertaining to constitutional jurisdictions. No one can be superior to RS and resolve a dispute while RS is not a part of a mechanism for resolution of a dispute if this dispute concerns it. We in RS, in the Cabinet, will be in a situation to say that the B&H level cannot bring some regulation because the Constitution clearly says that this field is in the jurisdiction of RS. It is logical that you are the one who will implement a certain European directive and incorporate it in your law, and not someone else,” Cvijanovic said. She cited as example a situation when several different government levels must accept or adopt a certain regulation or bring their own regulation. “The Council of Minister cannot be an arbitrator in such a situation and in the event I dispute something from the Council of Ministers the Council says ‘look, we are right, we have the right to bring this regulation and to send it to Parliament, and we don’t care that you in RS have the power to do it in keeping with the Constitution,’ and we both are arbitrators. This is impossible,” Cvijanovic said. She said that one should talk to RS if one wants to resolve some dispute and RS must have its representatives who will say their opinion in this body for dispute resolution. “God forbid that the Council of Ministers is the one who should defend our arguments. It is nice to say ‘we are those who will respect constitutional jurisdictions’ and then you define proposals which have nothing to do with constitutional jurisdictions,” Cvijanovic said and added that RS will challenge this proposal since it has to be included in the process. “Constitutional jurisdictions must be respected and the Council of Ministers cannot resolve any constitutional dispute because the Council of Ministers is not superior to anyone. The Council of Ministers is not above the Cabinet. The request for a coordination mechanism was made for this reason,” Cvijanovic said. She says that she reproached Serbian representatives in the B&H Council of Ministers who took part in this as well as MPs who turned a deaf ear to something that is called constitutional jurisdiction of RS.

Peoples in B&H should be allowed the right to self-determination (Srna, by Boris Nogo)

There are many peoples and regions in the world that are denied the right to self-determination, and Serbs in Kosovo, who are denied it, are but one example, which is inadmissible, says the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, Heinz-Christian Strache, in an interview to Srna. “Allowing the peoples in B&H the right to self-determination must not be a problem. Denying the right to self-determination is contrary to international law,” Strache said. As an example of denying the right to self-determination, along with Republika Srpska (RS), he cited the Italian Province of South Tyrol. “There are many peoples and regions in the world that are denied the right to self-determination. Serbs in Kosovo, who are denied it, are but an example, which is inadmissible,” Strache said. He said that because of the pressure from the IC, “the situation is difficult for RS,” but that “it is important that its institutions are stable.” “The time has come for the OHR to be closed in B&H, but it is obvious that this is not in someone’s interest. These are hidden interests of great powers, and the Austrian Freedom Party was always critical of centralistic approach by the EU and the OHR,” Strache said. He stressed that the whole world tends to federalism and preservation of the identity of peoples. “This is why ever more patriotic movements are being formed in Europe because there is a desire to preserve the identity, culture and language of all peoples. The primacy of self-determination and autonomy should be in the forefront, but world powers often prevented it,” Strache told Srna. He points to the worsening of the security situation in the Balkans because of the latest events in Macedonia and the terrorist attack in Zvornik, noting that the interests of both the US and Russia are present in this area. Strache says that the US, as a self-declared world police, left bombs and chaos in the world, instead of democracy and human rights. “When we see events in Macedonia, we can conclude that everything is being done by secret services and NGOs which are trying to create an artificial revolution,” Strache said. He said that NATO is calmly watching the policy of a greater Albania and radical Islamism. “There is an impression that destabilization of Europe is in the interest of the US. The question is who benefits from this. Europe should jointly suppress radical Islamism and terrorism, as a huge security threat,” Strache said. He feels that Europe is not conducting independent politics and that it imposed sanctions on Russia which are detrimental to European countries. “It is incredible that pressure is being put on other countries, including Serbia, to introduce sanctions in order to become ‘suitable.’ One should keep in mind that the Serbian people have been tied to Russia for centuries and that it is rude to expect something like that,” Strache said. He says that no one should ask RS and Serbia to choose sides between Russia and America. “Russia is a part of Europe, which will have a long lasting peace if it cooperates with that country. It can be problematic if Russia is removed from Europe for geopolitical interests,” Strache said in an interview with Srna’s Boris Nogo. He believes that the cooperation between Austria and RS will be improved in the coming period.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Serbia’s Evolving Energy Policy (Stratfor Global Intelligence, 2 June 2015)

Since the cancellation of the South Stream pipeline project, Russia’s financial constraints, coupled with possible Western incentives for participation in alternate energy projects such as the Southern Corridor, have begun pushing Serbia toward the Western-led projects in the region. On May 28, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic declared that in order to ensure energy security, he was “ready to diversify the sources of gas for Serbia, which is very important for our American friends as well.” In essence, the prime minister confirmed that the United States has been actively seeking ways for Serbia to become less dependent on Russia. Western governments are promoting two alternative ways for Serbia to import energy. The first is for Serbia to construct the infrastructure needed to connect to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline. Scheduled to become operational in 2020 with an initial capacity of 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, the pipeline will transport natural gas from Azerbaijan across Turkey and onward to Greece, Albania and Southern European markets. Serbia would likely need to build pipeline networks through either Macedonia or Montenegro in order to access the new pipeline.

Another potential opportunity for Serbia is a planned liquefied natural gas terminal in Croatia. The project, which is only in the early stages of feasibility studies and is progressing slowly, would be constructed on an island in northern Croatia. In February, reports emerged that the United States had offered to help Serbia access natural gas from the new terminal. Historically dependent on Russian natural gas, Serbia has expressed a willingness to refocus its energy policy toward the West. However, the country’s orientation will ultimately hinge upon the European Union’s willingness to adequately finance energy and infrastructure projects in Serbia. The South Stream pipeline would have created more than 2,000 jobs in Serbia and would have ultimately attracted some 1.5 billions euros (roughly $1.65 billion) in investment. As Russia and the West continue to compete for influence in the Balkans, the question remains whether the European Union is prepared to foot the bill for Serbia’s pivot westward.

Premature elections agreed on in Macedonia as crisis exit strategy (Xinhua, 3 June 2015)

SKOPJE — Premature parliamentary elections are to be held in Macedonia by the end of April 2016 in an attempt to end the deep political crisis in the country, political leaders decided Tuesday. The agreement was made here at a meeting among leaders of the country’s four biggest political parties along with the EU commissioner for neighborhood and enlargement negotiations, Johannes Hahn. In the meantime, the nine-month transitional period leading up to the elections is to be used to solve the internal problems in the country and to reform the election legislation. “We agreed on a transitional period and to have premature elections by April next year. But before that, it is important to prepare the country. There is a need to cleanse the election list and to accept the EU recommendations,” Commissioner Hahn told reporters in Skopje after the meeting. The details of the compromise are to be defined at a new meeting in Brussels next week. The issue remains open on whether there will be a transitional government in the country in the run up to the elections and, if so, who will lead it. The opposition Social Democratic party (SDSM) demands that the transitional government not be led by Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski. The leaders of the four major parties in Macedonia, namely the revolutionary party (VMRO-DPMNE), SDSM, the Democratic Union for Integration party (DUI) and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA), refused to comment on the issues agreed on at the eight-hour session. The opposition in Macedonia has been boycotting all state institutions since the last parliamentary elections, not recognizing the electoral results of April last year. The political crisis intensified in the last few months, when the opposition started publishing audio recordings from alleged wiretapped phone calls among high ranking officials, claiming that their conversations prove the government’s involvement in corruption cases. In the past few weeks, supporters of the opposition have organized protests and are camping out in front of the government building, demanding the government be dissolved. Government supporters, on the other hand, are also camping out in front of the parliament, claiming they are ready to defend the institutions and the results achieved at the last parliamentary elections.

EU and US broker early elections in Macedonia (EUobserver, by Andrew Rettman, 3 June 2015)

EU-brokered talks in Macedonia have reached agreement on early elections, amid Russian complaints on outside interference. The EU’s enlargement commissioner, Johannes Hahn, announced the deal in Skopje on Tuesday (2 June) after a nine-hour meeting with leaders of the four main political parties and with the US ambassador. The plan is to hold elections by April next year, following electoral reforms to be implemented by a new, transitional government. The composition of the interim administration, including the role of PM Nikola Gruevski, remains to be decided, with a follow-up meeting due in Brussels on 10 June. “It was agreed that by the end of April next year, there should be early elections, but it’s important to prepare the country. It’s about sound electoral codes, it’s about a revised voting list, it’s about respecting the rights of minorities”, Hahn said. He noted the reforms will be based on chapters 23 and 24, on fundamental rights and rule of law, of the EU acquis. Macedonia hasn’t started EU accession talks, despite the commission’s years-old recommendations to do so, due to a Greek and Bulgarian veto. But Hahn added the reforms must be carried out under “time pressure” if the commission is to renew its recommendation later this year. He called the crisis “an opportunity to modernise the country … to keep [Macedonia’s] Euro-Atlantic perspective alive”. The crisis erupted in February, when the opposition SDSM party began to leak wiretaps exposing corruption and abuse of power in Gruevski’s top cadre. It turned violent in May when special forces attacked what they called Albanian terrorists in an incident that threatened to reignite ethnic warfare. It also prompted mass opposition protests in Skopje, where activists set up a tent camp on 17 May recalling events in Kiev last year.

Colour revolution?

The developments have seen Russia, once the dominant foreign power in the region, try to stir anti-EU feeling. Russian deputy defence minister Anatoly Antonov, who is on an EU blacklist over Ukraine, said on Saturday the Macedonia unrest is a “colour revolution” which is being “outrageously orchestrated from the outside”. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, last month, also said the anti-Gruevski movement is being “crudely manipulated from the outside“ because the PM refused to join EU sanctions on Russia and because he agreed to take part in a new Russian gas pipeline, Turkish Stream. “We can’t help feeling that there is some kind of connection”, he said at the time. Other Russian allegations said Bulgaria is trying to split Macedonia in order to press territorial claims. But for his part, Gruevski, on 29 May, broke with Moscow, saying he’d only take part in the pipeline if it conforms with EU single market law. “Our position … is that when Brussels and Moscow will reach agreement on this project, we would participate in it,“ he told the Press24 news agency. “We are a country that is geared towards the Euro-Atlantic community, and when making decisions of strategic importance it’s guided by this objective”.

Are the Albanians and the Americans now deciding the Macedonian Question? (Strategic Culture Foundation, by Elena Guskova, 2 June 2015)

Macedonia is becoming destabilized, which is quite symbolic. Precisely on the eve of the 70th anniversary of the defeat of the Nazis, May 7, opposition rallies began in Skopje, and on the night of May 9 a detachment of armed Albanians entered Macedonia from Kosovo and occupied the town of Kumanovo. Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov was forced to leave the celebrations in Moscow. The police responded without hesitation. By the time that operation was over the militants had been routed and neutralized. But opposition protests continued, tents sprang up in the city square, and the protesters’ demands expanded to eventually include a call for regime change and new elections. Politicians and experts are well versed in such crises, and thus a diagnosis was quickly handed down from Moscow: another «color revolution» or a Macedonian-style Maidan was in progress. Russian politicians spoke out quickly and decisively: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that not only was Russia concerned about the situation in Macedonia, he also outlined Moscow’s position on the causes behind the opposition outcry in Macedonia and the potential course of events, as well as the danger of further moves by Albanians in the Balkans, activity that is now being directed by Albania herself. Mr. Lavrov’s concerns stemmed from the fact that Tirana has mentioned pursuing its Greater Albania project. The prime minister of Albania, Edi Rama, has stated that an eventual merger between Albania and Kosovo is inevitable, regardless of whether or not that unification takes place within the context of the EU. The Russian foreign minister is confident that the crisis in Macedonia is being orchestrated by outside forces. «Events in Macedonia are being blatantly controlled from the outside», claimed Sergei Lavrov. Indeed, the US Embassy, the CIA , and NGOs are actively assisting the protesters. American diplomats are advising the prime minister to agree to early elections and are present during all the negotiations. The street opposition truly is acting out the script to a «color revolution», as has been tried in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and many other countries. However, it should be emphasized that there are significant anomalies in the Macedonian version of Maidan.

First of all. A strong and experienced party (the political base of both the president and prime minister) is currently in power, with the complicated name of VMRO – DPMNE, 4 which commands solid support from the Macedonian public. The country’s leaders had no trouble bringing 90,000 of their loyalists into the streets. And the police are being careful to neither allow themselves to be provoked nor to cede anything to the protesters. Therefore it can be assumed that the confrontation on the streets «in accordance with the usual scenario» could drag on ineffectively for still quite a while. The second difference is very significant – the so-called «Albanian factor.» They serve as the spokesmen for the heavy-handed foreign element in the conflict and are easy to mobilize in the event of further unrest in the streets and squares of the Macedonian capital of Skopje. If the Albanians give a «thumbs up» to their joining the protesters, that would mean that they would take up arms and begin writing their own script for regime change in Macedonia. Provocations and armed clashes with the police would begin immediately, and thus casualties should be expected on both sides. That is the most likely scenario. I will explain why. Albanians would never support the popular protests in Macedonia unless they wanted to exploit the demonstrations for their own ends. Their goal is to unify all the lands surrounding Albania that have a majority Albanian population. Of course the project to build a Greater Albania has been in progress for more than one hundred thirty years. And early in the 21st century it seems those dreams coalesced into an explicit action plan. First the Kosovo Albanians fought to secede from Serbia, then the Albanians in Macedonia and southern Serbia joined them in 2001. Soon the Kosovo Albanians of that province declared their independence in 2008, with Washington’s support. After the talks between Belgrade and Priština (2011-2013), Kosovo became virtually independent, needing only one additional step – the acquiescence of Serbia – to achieve legal, recognized sovereignty. Then even the UN Security Council would not be able to challenge the will of Belgrade. But Belgrade is vacillating. And the patience of the Kosovo Albanians is at an end. And not only they, but also the Albanians in Macedonia, Montenegro, and Greece are left waiting. After all, the plan could not be more clear. Once Kosovo is granted a seat at the United Nations, Albanians in Macedonia, southern Serbia, Montenegro, and northern Greece will take up arms and fight to secede from Macedonia with Kosovo’s support. The West supports these plans, as they are extremely eager to weaken the Serbs and other Orthodox faithful in the Balkans, isolating them from Moscow. The United States also needs to locate its military bases here in order to control the region. Europe silently consents, naively believing that everything will proceed peacefully. But if the plan to create a Greater Albania gets off the ground, Europe will find a very dysfunctional, explosive hotbed of perpetual tensions, hatred, crime, and lawlessness right on its own doorstep. And the semi-independent Kosovo is clear testament to this. But because the pace of Kosovo’s path to full independence has slackened, impatient Albanians are beginning to crop up in Serbia and in Europe. First, a process has begun that cannot be explained either in the Balkans or in Europe: Albanian families by the thousands are leaving home, quitting Kosovo, Montenegro, and Macedonia, headed for Albania and Europe, thanks to the open border. Officials in these countries are puzzled and dismiss it as a reaction to widespread unemployment in the Balkans. But it seems to us that this march of the Albanians must either be a reminder to Europe to take another look at the issue of Kosovo’s independence or else the buildup for a massive war. In Preševo, Medveđa, and Bujanovac (in southern Serbia), preparations are in full swing for those areas to secede from Serbia. In Montenegro, ethnic Albanians make up only 5.5% of the population, but even there a restless drift is unmistakable. Nor can Greece escape problems with Albanians: Albania has filed claims against Greece over some border districts. Second, Albanians are demonstrating right there in Macedonia that they can begin to resolve their question militarily. Radical forces from Kosovo are demanding that Tirana and Priština intervene in the events in Macedonia and «stop that dictator Nikola Gruevski», the prime minister of Macedonia, because the police in Macedonia have attacked Albanians. They promise that seven million Albanians «will move into Macedonia with their bare hands, and soon that state will exist no more». Which scenario is most likely in Macedonia? European and UN politicians will likely express concern about the status of democracy in Macedonia, condemn the actions of the Macedonian police in Kumanovo, and demand an «impartial» international investigation of «violations of citizens’ rights» (with no mention of terrorism). As long as the police are afraid to act, Albanian militants will fabricate a series of provocations and acts of terrorism in the country, accusing the government and the president of responsibility for the casualties. The Albanians in Tetovo, Kumanovo, and Skopje will form armed units and gain control of the territory. By threatening to block Macedonia’s entry into the EU, the European Union will urge Gruevski to make peace with the rebels and refrain from military action. If the Albanians once again call up the National Liberation Army as they did in 2001 (but which has since gone underground), war in the country cannot be avoided. Militants from Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State will rush in to support their Muslim brothers. And they will dictate the terms to the Macedonians. Those who encouraged the Albanians in Kosovo and forced an expansion of their rights in Macedonia in 2001 will be reconciled. At the negotiating table the government will be forced to grant significant concessions to the Albanians, who will raise the issue of independence for part of the country. This will satisfy their yearnings for a Greater Albania, as well as the American goals to fully control the Balkans and establish docile and obedient puppet states there. And most important – Washington hopes that Russia’s influence in that region will finally come to an end.

(1) The Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity is a nationalist party that favors a course toward Euro-Atlantic integration.

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