Serbian daily Blic runs an analysis on 5 possible solutions for Kosovo, how to get out of the current political deadlock. The daily also said the second option would be the worst for the Serbs in Kosovo.
If Kosovo does not establish the government by 7th August 2017, it may face the second elections. Although the leader of the AAK Ramush Haradinaj and a candidate for the Kosovo Prime Minister, for some time claims he has the majority to establish the government, he still did not officially get the mandate to do so, while the constitutive session of the Kosovo Assembly is not even scheduled yet, and the deadline is approaching. According to Pristina-based media it might happen on 27 July as most of the Kosovo MPs are on holidays.
Option 1: “War coalition” in problems.
The so-called “War coalition” although it won the highest number of seats (39) still has no majority to establish the government (minimum 61 MPs are needed). It means they would need to relay to other parties or minorities’ lists. Haradinaj’s invitation for talks were already rejected by Self-determination Movement and the LDK-run coalition.
Meanwhile, Srpska Lista still remains silent and did not state whether it will support Ramush Haradinaj.
Option 2: Self-determination enough for majority
The second option is that the Self-determination Movement supports “War coalition” and in this case majority would be guaranteed.
If that would have happened, they would need no one else, so the LDK and minorities would remain in opposition. However, Self-determination movement so far does not want to talk to Haradinaj.
When it comes to Serbs in Kosovo this option would definitely be the worst for them. Self-determination movement is opposing the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities, pleading for creating of “Greater Albania” and discontinuation of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, so their attitude towards Serbs would be a big issue.
Option 3: LDK and Self-determination – Weird choice
If they want to avoid Thaci and Haradinaj, LDK and Self-determination would be able to establish minimal majority of 61 MPs. However, it remains disputable if these parties could find the common ground considering radical stances and actions of the Self-determination Movement and peaceful and liberal LDK.
However, if that would have happened, with the support of the minority parties, the majority would be certain. Srpska Lista during the previous mandate cooperated with the LDK, so it is already familiar with the LDK, still the question remains how to harmonize stances of Srpska Lista and radical Self-determination Movement.
Option 4: Old players back together
This is also unlikely to happen, PDK and LDK coalitions to form the majority, although they could have it, given the number of seats both coalitions won. However, it was the PDK that left the government and dissolved it and it was the reason for extraordinary elections on 11 June 2017.
Serbs from Kosovo participated in this government, although they were boycotting it for some time due to Trepca issue, Kosovo army and so on.
Option 5: New elections
After the Central Election Commission on 8th July 2017, confirmed electoral results, constitutive session of the Kosovo Assembly should be held latest 30 days following the certification of results, more respectively by 7th August 2017.
After the constitutive session, president Thaci should nominate the person to establish the government. If a nominee does not secure the majority, then the president Thaci within 10 days should nominate a second candidate, and if government is not established in that case as well, he has to call new elections.
Serbs in Kosovo would not have major issues with this, as they have guaranteed seats in the assembly. The issue would be a new order of power between the Albanian parties following the new elections, while the new agreements would depend upon that.
