LOCAL PRESS

Djuric: Formation of Kosovo army contrary to UNSCR 1244 (TV Prva)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric has called the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija not to join the illegal army of Kosovo and reminded that, according to the Serbian criminal law, joining illegal, foreign armed formations is illegal and punishable with up to ten years in prison. He underlines that the formation of the illegal army in Kosovo is contrary to UNSCR 1244, the Kumanovo Agreement and the goal of the Serbian state – long-term stability. He says the Serb List that opposes the formation of the army in Kosovo and Metohija has the support of President Vucic and the Serbian government. Speaking about the Pristina platform proposed by the Kosovo government, Djuric says the stand of the international community will be best seen if the Pristina Assembly adopts the platform. “Pristina never does anything without consent of the international community. If the international community wants the platform not to be adopted they will tell their friends and partners not to adopt it in the Assembly,” Djuric told TV Prva. “The reaction of the international community is not satisfying, it is not encouraging success in the continuation of the dialogue,” says Djuric. “A strong army is a guardian of peace and it is important for the Serbian Army to strengthen. The goal of strengthening is to have a stronger guarantee of peace,” he says, adding that the EULEX Mission is unsuccessful in Kosovo and Metohija since it hasn’t created conditions for the rule of law. “That and such EULEX has been brought by those who say that Kosovo should be let into the UN without any conditions,” said Djuric.

Drecun: Management team for ZSO Statute is contrary to the Brussels agreement (TV N1)

The Chairman of the Serbian parliamentary Committee for Kosovo and Metohija Milovan Drecun has told TV N1 that the Kosovo Serbs have not given up the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO), but have decided to wait since Pristina has made a political maneuver. The Management Team for the ZSO Statute that is formed by Pristina is not in line with the Brussels agreement. This is why, he says, the ZSO Statute will be contrary to that agreement. Now we have a situation where the Albanians in Pristina are writing a political platform. Drecun thinks that they are completely closing the door to normalization of relations, because they are requesting a transfer into the final phase, which, he claims, according to the Albanian opinion, could only end in Serbia recognizing Kosovo. He says that the continuation of the talks in Brussels is uncertain: “Pristina wishes to raise tensions and to draw us farther away from reaching any solution”. He notes that Belgrade has stated clearly that it will not recognize Kosovo and open them the door to the UN, but that it is ready to sit at the table. Drecun says it seems to him that the EU, regarding Kosovo, has no policy and that it is actually following everything that is arriving from Washington. There is a stalemate in the normalization of relations because of all this, he says. Drecun notes that Pristina is now saying that the ZSO will be formed based on the Kosovo Constitution, but then the question is why we have been negotiating in Brussels. He says that Pristina is now trying to take what suits them (from the Brussels agreement) and to reject what it doesn’t suit them and to form some strange ZSO, unacceptable for the Serbian side. The agreement is for the ZSO to have executive power, and it is written in the implementation plan, and this was accepted by Pristina, that in case some legal document in Kosovo is not in line with the Brussels agreement, that this document will be amended, and not the Brussels agreement, says Drecun. “Pristina is making a maneuver, and has sent immediately the Brussels agreement to the Constitutional Court for assessment of constitutionality in the part that refers to the ZSO, where this Constitutional Court states that almost all items, except one, are not in line with the document. Fine, well then amend this document, according to the implementation plan…but they say no – we will form the ZSO in line with the Kosovo Constitution, and they are potentially creating a conflicting situation. It was agreed in Brussels for the Serbs exclusively to form the management team, because I guess an Albanian will not be writing the Statute, how will she/he know what are the needs and interests of the Serbs, when they are doing everything to subordinate them to their own interests,” says Drecun. He says the Serbs have their own management team but Pristina is forming its own, which is not in line with the Brussels agreement. We are waiting, says Drecun, so the Serbian side doesn’t turn out to be the disturbing factor, and we are waiting to see what they will do, but it is clear to me what they will do. He notes the Brussels agreement states that the government should introduce the ZSO into the existing legal order and nothing more. Serbia doesn’t want to disable progress of this part of our territory, to make a black hole from it, so this is why we have an agreement that we will not do anything to prevent Kosovo on its EU path. However, it was agreed that Kosovo cannot be represented anywhere, at some forum, without the asterisk. He notes that, when organizing some gathering, the intention is to create an impression, little by little, that Serbia is silently accepting Kosovo to be represented as a state. Commenting the platform of the Kosovo Assembly speaker Kadri Veseli, he says that this is a man who should be on the indictment of the Special Court. We have a thick file for the crimes committed but Veseli, Hashim Thaci and the entire Drenica group, said Drecun.

Spain approves draft declaration for the Sofia Summit (Tanjug)

The ambassadors of the 28 EU member states, including Spain, have approved a draft declaration for the EU-Western Balkans summit in Sofia, Tanjug learns in Brussels. “The draft declaration has also been approved by Spain’s ambassador to the EU and it is up to the member states themselves to accept it,” Tanjug was told at the Bulgarian EU Presidency. Diplomatic sources in Brussels not that, due to the opposition of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy for his signature to be on the declaration together with the signature of Kosovo’s representative, they reached a compromise solution for the declaration to be adopted by only 28 member states, and not in the format 28 plus six “partners” from Western Balkans. Diplomatic sources say that it is still not certain whether Prime Minister Rahoy will attend the EU-Western Balkans summit. Unofficial information states that Rahoy had conditioned his attendance at the summit with complete marginalization of the Kosovo representative, who should not be allowed according to Spain’s stand, to take the stand nor to sit at the same table with other leaders of the EU and Western Balkans.

Pristina platform makes the dialogue pointless? (Politika)

The Brussels dialogue has become pointless if the Pristina Assembly, at the proposal of the Kosovo government, adopts the platform on the dialogue with Belgrade, but this doesn’t necessarily mean abandoning talks from the Serbian side in the EU headquarters, Politika learns unofficially at the Serbian Presidency. Politika notes that the new document of Ramush Haradinaj’s government is pointless because it envisages talks in Brussels to end in mutual recognition of Serbia and the self-declared state of Kosovo, to which President Vucic and the Serbian government will not agree. Haradinaj’s government decided to go for this move because the parliamentary crisis in Kosovo, after the departure of the Serb List representatives from the executive authority, will be resolved with early parliamentary elections, most probably in June, Politika writes.

Hahn: No new members with neighborhood problems; Vucic doing a brave job (FoNet)

EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn said on Monday that the EU would not accept new members who have open issues with neighbors. Hahn told the European Parliament’s Foreign Policy Committee progress in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue is important and added that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is doing a brave job in the dialogue on normalizing Serbia-Kosovo relations.  He warned that progress in the dialogue does not mean that official Belgrade should stop reforms, especially in regard to rule of law.  Hahn said that Belgrade had missed the 2016 deadline to meet some of the rule of law criteria. It’s important for Serbia to understand that both these things have to be resolved, he added.  Hahn said that institutional reforms and the EU enlargement should be parallel processes leading to a stronger EU. We can’t wait for years to reach an agreement within the EU before continuing the pre-accession negotiations, he said adding that the European Commission would draw up a proposal by next autumn on which decisions can be taken by a majority vote and which have to be taken unanimously.

REGIONAL PRESS

Matviyenko underlines that Russia advocates closing of OHR (ATV)

High-ranking delegation of the Russian Federation led by Chairwoman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation Valentina Matviyenko started an official visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) on Monday. Matviyenko met with members of B&H Parliament Collegium in Sarajevo. Addressing the joint the press conference after the meeting, Matviyenko said that Russia is thankful to B&H for not joining the “illegitimate sanctions” aimed against this country, adding that “Russia is against the policy of interfering and the West is trying to stop the independent foreign policy, but the country will not give up on its principles.” She warned that things that happened in Iraq and Libya, as well as bombing of former Yugoslavia, must never happen again. Speaker of B&H House of Peoples (HoP) Ognjen Tadic (People’s Party) stated that the main context of relations between B&H and Russia should regard economy, judiciary, mutual support in the field of science, education, culture and security. He reminded that B&H has not imposed any restrictive measures or sanctions against Russia and this will not be changed in the future. After the meeting with B&H Parliament Collegium, Matviyenko addressed B&H HoP. She stressed that Russia has never interfered with internal affairs in B&H and it has never supported imposing of solutions. “We advocate the abolition of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) and the reform of B&H judicial institutions, primarily of the Constitutional Court (CC) of B&H,” Matviyenko told B&H HoP. She added that presence of foreigners humiliates peoples in B&H who should have their fate in their own hands, and therefore Russia believes that the OHR should be abolished. “The presence of this protectorate in no way fits reality today. It blocks joint progress in B&H”, she noted. She also reminded that Russia is guarantor of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) and “this is Alpha and Omega for us, so we do not see the need for any change of the system in B&H”. Matviyenko emphasized that B&H can always count on Russia’s support, assessing that economic ties between the two countries could be improved. She said that the fact that European countries often put B&H in a situation to choose between the EU and Russia is inacceptable since these two things are not mutually opposed, noting that countries themselves should decide alone with which countries they will develop cooperation. Bosniak delegates in B&H HoP expressed their discontent with some of the messages that Matviyenko conveyed in her address. Delegate in the Bosniak Caucus in B&H HoP Halid Genjac (SDA) left the HoP’s hall during Matviyenko’s presentation of her perception of the situation in B&H, when she said that “any kind of imposing of solutions would not be in the interest of peoples in B&H, were a civil war happened more than two-decade ago.” This particular statement was fiercely condemned by the Federation of B&H media, which assessed it as shameful. Most of the representatives of Bosniak political parties already started to analyze if Matviyenko’s messages indicate intensified influence of the Russian Federation in B&H and they are angered by these messages. Matviyenko is also expected to meet with the delegation of B&H Presidency.

OHR: Russia respects Dayton Agreement, including mandate of OHR (Fena)

Asked to comment statement of the Chairwoman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation Valentina Matviyenko who said that it is time for the OHR to leave B&H, the Office of the High Representative stated for Fena: “Russia is member of Peace Implementation Council and on several occasions they stated that they fully respect the Dayton Peace Agreement, which includes mandate of High Representative, as well as preserving of territorial integrity and sovereignty of B&H”. The OHR also stressed that conditions for closing down of the OHR are defined at the PIC meeting in February 2008 and are known as ‘5+2 Program’.

Bosic: B&H must be neutral in clash between West and East (N1)

Speaker of the B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Mladen Bosic commented Russia’s relationship with B&H and B&H’s role in the current “clash” between the West and the East. Bosic stated that Russia has always been a great supporter of respecting the Dayton Peace Agreement and maintaining peace and stability in B&H. Bosic emphasized that B&H should remain neutral in the “clash” between the West and the East, because, as he stated, “always in the war between the great powers, the ‘little ones’ are the biggest losers”. “When the great powers play in our territory, that always costs us. I wish that such scenarios are completely avoided. We support cooperation with everyone and I do not see why would we, as a small society, position ourselves as someone who makes ‘big decisions’ in the world, when in fact we do not do that. There is a saying: ‘When elephants play, the grass gets destroyed’, well then let us not be the grass in this story. That will not contribute to our stability” said Bosic.

EC sends message to B&H officials that Election Law must be amended (Hayat)

The European Commission (EC) has sent a message to the B&H officials that the Election Law must be amended very soon and that all political leaders in B&H must assume responsibility and show their willingness to compromise so that the best solution for the Federation of B&H House of Peoples (HoP) is found. The members of the US Congress also commented the political situation in B&H and they stated that B&H politicians want to keep what they have stolen during their recent years in power and joining the EU will prevent them in keeping all that. The US Congress members stated that this is the main reason why B&H is not making any significant progress on its EU path. The international community emphasizes that B&H politicians are responsible for the situation in B&H and they must work on creating a “peaceful, stable and prosperous B&H”. Since the B&H officials are not able to come to agreements in many important matters, the representatives of the international community in B&H have to facilitate meetings to try to help the B&H officials to find compromise solutions.

Karadzic defense asks for annulment of judgment and new trial (RTRS/Srna)

At the beginning of the appeal hearing on Monday, defense of the former RS president Radovan Karadzic requested an annulment of the judgment sentencing him to 40 years in prison and asked the Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals in The Hague to order a new trial. The defence team is presenting its arguments on 46 grounds of appeal, reports RTRS. In its appeal, the prosecution demands a life sentence for Karadzic. Karadzic lodged a complaint in December 2016 to the ICTY judgment sentencing him to 40 years in prison “for genocide in Srebrenica and crimes against humanity in Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1992 and 1995”. The defense hopes they will manage to prove a lack of connection between Karadzic and the events in Srebrenica, which would, they believe, influence the length of the sentence. Lawyer Goran Petronijevic, a member of the defense team, told Srna on an earlier occasion that the defense and prosecution views on mutual complaints and replies would be presented at the appeal hearing.  He noted that after the appeal hearing, only status conferences would be held until the pronouncement of the final judgment, which could take place towards the end of the year, according to the defense’s estimates.

Lawsuit against Missing Persons Institute of B&H for concealing truth about fate of missing Serbs (RTRS)

President of the RS Organization of Families of Captured and Killed Soldiers and Missing Civilians Nedeljko Mitrovic said that the lawsuit against the B&H Missing Persons Institute and the Federation of B&H authorities for concealing the truth about the fate of missing Serbs is being prepared. Mitrovic recalled that back in 2014, the RS Organization of Families of Captured and Killed Soldiers and Missing Civilians got a response from the European Court of Human Rights according to which the B&H Missing Persons Institute is responsible for solving these issues. Mitrovic added that the Federation of B&H authorities are yet to provide the Organization with answers about the fate of missing Serbs.

Contract on construction of Peljesac Bridge signed (Hayat)

A contract for the construction of the Peljesac Bridge was signed between Croatia and a Chinese consortium in Dubrovnik on Monday. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and a number of ministers attended the signing. The project aims to connect by road the southernmost part of Croatia including the city of Dubrovnik with the rest of the mainland, circumventing a short strip of coastal territory belonging to Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) around the town of Neum. Plenkovic added that the future bridge will have a height of 55 meters and a range of 280 meters and therefore “allow our friends in B&H safe passage into the port of Neum”. Plenkovic stressed that European Commission (EC) President Jean-Claude Juncker recently gave full support to this project and to connecting of Croatian territory. “This bridge was constructed in accordance with highest expert criteria, but also with full respect for our neighboring B&H; 55 meters of height provides for a waterway which enables function of harbor in Neum in the best way, thus permitting all rights that B&H has and it in no way is a part of the issues of border organization between the two countries,” Plenkovic stressed. Meanwhile, according to N1, B&H officials and B&H institutions do not have a clear position as to what should be done next when it comes to the Peljesac Bridge issue. B&H Minister of Transport and Communications Ismir Jusko said that he did not receive information from the Croatian side that the contract with the contractor is signed. Jusko stressed that the B&H Ministry of Transport and Communications was waiting for instructions from the B&H Parliament as to what the Ministry’s steps should be in this case.

B&H Minister of Civil Affairs Adil Osmanovic said that he never got a response from Croatia to his proposals, including for expert groups from B&H and Croatia to agree disputable border issues and then to start talks on the construction of the Peljesac Bridge. Osmanovic stressed that Croatia made a unilateral move in the case of the Peljesac Bridge and that B&H needs to fight with legal means. “I would say that silence of the EU and the EC is worrying here. We know that the EC gave huge money for the construction of the Peljesac Bridge and procedures of expenditure of money of the EU citizens clearly say that this money cannot be used in the direction of depriving someone of their right,” Osmanovic underlined. DF’s Damir Becirovic said that B&H needs to send a note to Croatia, noting that the only valid attitude of B&H when it comes to the construction of the Peljesac Bridge is the stance of the B&H Presidency adopted a couple of years ago, according to which B&H does not allow construction of the Peljesac Bridge in this way. DF leader Zeljko Komsic stated that the case is about an international scandal and Croatia’s direct attack on B&H. He added that Croatia has pulled the EU into violation of European laws. NDP’s Momcilo Novakovic said that B&H reacted to this issue with delay.

Croat officials in B&H, on the other hand, support the construction of the Peljesac Bridge and see nothing controversial about it. Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers (B&H CoM) Denis Zvizdic stated on Monday that B&H has never given consent to construction of the Peljesac Bridge during his term. “The B&H CoM has not adopted a single document approving construction of the Peljesac Bridge,” reads the statement. SDA finds it unacceptable that the bridge is being constructed without B&H, at the expense of its territorial integrity and sovereignty. B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic (SDA) also called on Croatia to stop construction of the Peljesac Bridge. “Despite all the warnings, Croatia has continued with implementation of the disputable project by signing the agreement on the Peljesac Bridge construction. Therefore, B&H will inform the EC, which finance the project, about this. B&H will also take other steps in order to protect the right it has in line with the United Nations (UN) Convention on the Law of the Sea”, Izetbegovic’s office said in a statement. Meanwhile, SDP requested from Zvizdic and Izetbegovic to demand from the European Commission (EC) to suspend financing construction of the Peljesac Bridge. SDP also expects them to inform the public on what kind of legal actions they are going to take with regard to this issue.

Croatian Ministers explain decision to ban Serbian Minister Vulin (Hina)

Croatia’s government would like to see improvement in the bilateral relations with Serbia, however, statements made by Serbian Defence Minister Aleksandar Vulin do not contribute to such developments, Croatian Foreign Minister Marija Pejcinovic Buric said on Sunday. Minister Pejcinovic Buric, who was on a North American tour over this weekend, said that the Croatian Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs was compelled to decide that Vulin was not welcome to Croatia following his statements that “it is only the Serbian Army’s supreme commander, Aleksandar Vucic, who can decide on his travel to Croatia and that this cannot be decided by Croatian ministers”. The Croatian ministry condemned Vulin’s statement and forwarded a protest note to the Serbian embassy in Zagreb. Croatia is committed to developing better relations with Serbia, however, both countries must respect each other and refrain from provocations, the Croatian minister said adding that “unfortunately, Minister Vulin is not a person that can contribute to that end.” Croatian Interior Minister Davor Bozinovic said on Sunday that the Serbian minister Vulin kept making statements in contravention of good neighborly relations which was why the Croatian foreign ministry decided to declare him persona non grata. Asked whether Vulin, who is the defence minister in the Serbian cabinet, could act that way without “a green light being given” by his superiors, Bozinovic said that this was a matter that concerned the internal relations in the Serbian government. Vulin has said that the Serbian Supreme Commander President Vucic is in charge of decisions on his travels. This is their internal business and we can have our opinion on that, the Croatian minister said. Underscoring by Vulin the function of Vucic as the army supreme commander who would decide on allowing anybody to enter Croatia is unacceptable and inappropriate attempt to negate Croatia’s sovereignty, the Croatian foreign ministry stated in its protest note.

Radunovic stands as a candidate for Mayor (CDM)

Slaven Radunovic, member of Democratic Front, will stand as candidate for mayor, and the name of the list of DF and its coalition partners will probably be Zdrava Podgorica (Healthy Podgorica). It’s certain now that DF will unite with Socialist People’s Party. They are also negotiating with the party of Marko Milacic. Radunovic hopes for the formation of the strongest coalition before the elections in Podgorica. He said that they had asked Civil Movement URA and Democrats to withdraw the electoral list for the elections in the capital. “I don’t think they will do that. However, it’s important that we make our greatest contribution to the good result of the opposition so that we can form the Government in reasonable time while also respecting the democratic rules. We’re willing to open the dialogue with relevant parties, the ones which can bring votes to the coalition,” said Radunovic.

Luksic nominated for Secretary General of Regional Cooperation Council (MINA)

Former Prime Minister of Montenegro, Igor Luksic, was nominated for the Secretary General of the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC) with the term of office on force from 2022 to 2024. This decision was made during the annual meeting of the Council which was held yesterday.

The meeting was attended by the current Secretary General, Goran Svilanovic and Matej Marn among others.  Activities in the area of regional cooperation and the challenges ahead have been discussed during the meeting. Svilanovic congratulated Luksic on nomination for the function of the Secretary General of the RCC and wished him success in the future work. Marn pointed out the diligent and dedicated work of the Council, as well as excellent results that this Organization has achieved so far. “The Council has become an organization which plays a very important role in those areas which are of common interest,” said Marn.

UN confirms new round of name talks in Vienna (MIA)

The UN mediator in Macedonia-Greece negotiations on settling the name dispute, Matthew Nimetz, will meet the Foreign Ministers of both countries, Nikola Dimitrov and Nikos Kotzias respectively, on 25 April in Vienna. The meeting is part of United Nations’ ongoing efforts to assist the sides in finding a mutually acceptable solution to the ‘name’ issue, the UN said Monday in a press release.

Meta receives Prime Minister of Belgium (ADN)

The President of the Republic, Ilir Meta, received on Monday in a special meeting the Prime Minister of Belgium, Charles Michel. During the meeting, Meta praised the very good relations between the two countries, and expressed gratitude for the support that Belgium has given to Albania, especially in the framework of Albania’s integration process. He emphasized the importance of positive decision-making by the Council, also in the strategic aspect for Albania and the Western Balkans region. Right after that, the Head of the State, expressed the commitment to further progress in reforms for the five key priorities, particularly in the area of rule of law. Belgium has not decided yet if it will vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ for the opening of the accession negotiations with Albania. Prime Minister of Belgium, Charles Michel, declared on Monday, that there was not taken an official decision yet. In a press conference with the Prime Minister, Edi Rama, Michel said that the most important thing for the moment is to keep going with the reforms. “The opening of the accession negotiations is only the beginning of a long journey to be part of the EU. The final decision will be taken on June. We agree to dialogue and help Albania to speed up the reforms,” said Michel.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

A review of the bidding in the Balkans (TransConflict, by David B. Kanin, 24 April 2018)

Save one, conflicts in the region are frozen, EU accession process or not.

Lacking any strategy or conceptual framework, EU and US diplomacies in the Balkans continue to consist largely of versions of the same rhetorical script that has held place since the end of the collapse of Yugoslavia. The latest EU strategy for the region includes nothing of substance; it is as insignificant as the pile of Western formulas tried out during the wars of the 1990s and will fail to make a dent in flawed regimes of Dayton and UN Security Council Resolution 1244. As with previous posturing, any document or oration that mentions “transition, “democracy” (or “democratic backsliding,”) “rule of law,” “corruption,” “transparency,” or other well-trod slogans can be safely ignored. The Balkan Conference in Sofia on May 1 will not produce anything substantive, even though it will give Bulgaria a pulpit from which to declare the success of its turn at the EU presidency. This get together should be compared to the similar sorts of regional Balkan conclaves in the 1930s that also were much touted but had minimal impact on regional and international security. Its most important result already is in the books – the five EU members that do not recognize Kosova as a sovereign state demonstrated by the conditions under which they agreed to attend that they have no intention of changing their position, no matter more than a dozen years of American demands that they do so and promises to Pristina that this will happen. Serbian denials of any willingness to grant Pristina even a non-voting status in the UN (much less diplomatic recognition) in return for EU membership suggests another failed effort to move Belgrade off its bedrock position. President Vucic’s rejection of the EU spokesperson’s statement that the association of Serbian municipalities in Kosovo called for by the much-overrated Brussels agreement of April 2013 will be formed in accordance with Kosova’s legal system is a further demonstration of his government’s strong diplomatic position. I have heard some former US officials say influential Serbs have told them privately Belgrade will wait until just before they qualify for EU membership to recognize Kosova’s sovereignty; those officials say Serbia should do this now. These colleagues make the common mistake of believing private assurances to them are more authoritative than public commentary meant for mass domestic and/or foreign audiences. Comments from Vucic, Prime Minister Ana Brnjabic, Foreign Minister Ivic Dacic, and others down the food chain should be taken at face value unless those public positions change. Make no mistake – Serbia is working toward getting into the EU without having to recognize Kosova and, as things stand, has a real shot at making this happen. The key to the eventual success of this goal will be achieving a “normalization” agreement under Brussels’ auspices while maintaining international acquiescence to the idea that there is something called “status neutrality” (the US failure to achieve universal EU recognition means the existence of any neutral national positions on this issue reinforces Pristina’s lack of an international status). A recent New York Times article relegates problems in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Kosova/o, and throughout the region to great power rivalry, and so has things backwards. The US and Russia, much like the Powers of earlier eras, are drawn into local disputes in the Balkans and elsewhere they cannot force into conclusion. Moscow, by choosing sides, (like in Syria), is more skillful than Washington, but Putin’s setback in Montenegro reflects the same limitations on that outsider that have frustrated serial Western initiatives in the region. As always, regional patronage bosses and governments (the two overlap as part of the largely informal economic and political actors that dominate the region) will adapt to changes in the correlation of forces existing among the larger powers they have to contend with. The ongoing shift toward illiberal politics with democratic veneers reflects gradually weakening Western influence. Growing Russia-China cooperation to weaken the US, which only partly results from the current chaos in Washington, is not unnoticed in the region. It stands in sharp contrast to US-Chinese cooperation against Soviet power that contributed to weakening Moscow’s geopolitical stance in the final decades of the Cold War – an arrangement that affected Tito’s adjustments to his non-alignment and contributed to the Western tack of his immediate successors during the 1980s. In this context, determining what the Tito-era Macedonian republic should call itself has taken on outsized importance (whether it joins NATO is a much less important issue). The “name” problem, unlike other disputes regarding Macedonia and the rest of the region, does not intrinsically involve competition over borders, ethnicity, religion, or resources, even though all those things come into the argument. It is possible to settle on a name without changing anything else. The contrast between the behavior of behavior of Zoran Zaev’s government and that of its proto-authoritarian predecessor has lifted hopes for a solution. Press reports suggest to two sides are closing in on some formation of “Upper Macedonia.” Whether the new name will only be used internationally or will be embedded in the country’s constitution remains unresolved. Coming to closure on this issue would provide at least a small reason for cheer among the current and former Western diplomats who have presided over the series of negotiating impasses noted above. Even such a cosmetic success would also provide rhetorical ballast importance in the wake of Vojislav Seselj’s latest victory in The Hague. Sure, he was found guilty of a limited set of war crimes in Vojvodina, but his acquittal related to brutalities committed in Croatia and Bosnia and the Tribunal’s gift of a sentence, in effect, of time served ensures that Seselj’s narrative of patriotic heroism remains intact. He joins the pantheon of nationalistic icons in all the shards of former Yugoslavia whose memories will be nurtured by the current and future agitators who will serve as the entrepreneurs of the next round of regional conflicts. These figures, and sectarian elements ranging from clerics and intellectuals to figures in popular culture and grass-roots football fans continue to prove themselves more durable and deeply rooted than the sliver of people attached to waning Western notions of multiculturalism and liberal institutionalism.

David B. Kanin is an adjunct professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins University and a former senior intelligence analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of TransConflict.