Further Serbia’s path towards the EU will be a central topic of discussion of Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic in Berlin, estimated Predrag Simic, professor of Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, who does not expect the country to be exposed to any new conditions.
– As I know, Germany at the moment from Serbia expects only to stick to the obligations of eight points that Berlin as a request made two years ago. That is why this government received support from Germany and that is why the visit somehow is a reward for Vucic for complying with an agreement from 2012 and the Brussels Treaty. This visit should strengthen Vucic in power, not to weaken it – says Predrag Simic to Dnevnik.
Simic emphasizes that “no matter how long and distant path to the EU is, at the moment Germany as the strongest member can open up or close the path, to speeded up or slow down.”
– The only message that Merkel will send to Vucic will be: you do your part of the work, and while doing so, you can count that we will do our part and we will support you. Whether it may shorten the path, and Serbia will become, let’s say, a member in 2019 instead 2020, at this time I do not know. But it seems that Germany because of their problems, the issue of Ukraine and the new polarization, will be more active in the Western Balkans, probably in the Balkans in general – said Simic.
He believes that relations between Belgrade and Pristina will not continue to be the central axis around which will move the talks.
– It won’t be, because it’s the end of the story. The outcome of the elections in Kosovo says that Belgrade has lost influence not only on the Albanian side, but also on the Serbian, which is evident from the fact that in Mitrovica turnout was negligible – Simic said.
– Serbs will not have a major impact or in the Kosovo parliament, nor in the government. I expect that in Pristina, where Thaci claimed a victory, a major force will be the so-called international community, the Americans and the Europeans, and that the West will act directly as a kind of opposition, as a corrective of what will happen in Kosovo.
In his opinion, in the talks Merkel and Vucic, the Republika Srpska will not be a topic. He believes that Ukraine, which became a central theme, reversed the order of moves and therefore it should be expected that after the flood and the economic disasters that hit us, from Serbia will be required to maintain some kind of stability because of its stability will depend and BiH and all around us.
– This is why I expect the talks to pass in a very positive note. Apparently, Germany currently has an interest, for various reasons, to maintain stability in Serbia; that will be very difficult after the flood and troubles that have befallen us. Message from the meeting will be typically German: We support you, but we expect of you to listen to us, or to fulfil your part of the deal that we have written on paper in seven or eight points. To the extent to which Serbia will stick to the agreement, implement reforms and all needed, to the extent and the German side will fulfil their part of the obligations and give us support. The specific details of that support probably will be discussed at a meeting of the Western Balkans that follows – suggests Simic.
