The Serb Republic (RS) will separate from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), above all because Serbs are extremely dissatisfied with the common life.
Former British diplomat Timothy Less told this to Belgrade weekly NIN in an interview.
“They feel that their security is threatened by Sarajevo’s policy and are deeply hurt by the imposed decisions, especially during the administration of (international representative) Paddy Ashdown, which further separated them from BiH,” Less, who heads the Nova Europa consultancy, said.
According to him, the second reason is a change in the international environment.
“In the past 20 years, the West has had superiority over Bosnia and kept all options closed, which means that even if the Bosnian Serbs wanted to distance themselves from Sarajevo, they were not allowed to. Today the European Union faces a deterioration and a minimal impact in Bosnia because it is not planning to expand,” Less is quoted as saying.
His conclusion is that the US interest in the Balkans is now diminishing, which creates a situation where the Bosnian Serbs have the opportunity to push their idea of separation.
“Until recently, the EU was a regional policeman, who took over that responsibility in the last decade from the United States. The way in which the EU forced on the implementation of certain policies was driven by the pretext of membership. In other words, the EU offered the region a chance to join this organization if it buried national frustrations. In a sense, that has been accomplished,” Less said.
He assessed that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is working to reach a compromise with Pristina, and is calming the Bosnian Serbs, mostly because he wants EU membership.
However, Less said, that phase of history is now over.
“The EU is in a state of irreversible decline, so the membership offer has been withdrawn. The EU has little to offer to this region except money, so it has no authority,” Less said.