LOCAL PRESS

Dacic, Guterres: Full support to mandate of UNMIK in Kosovo (RTS)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic, on the eve of the meeting of the United Nations Security Council dedicated to a report on the work of UNMIK, talked with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Dacic informed the UN Secretary-General about the current situation in Kosovo-Metohija, especially in the context of a series of unilateral moves made by Pristina, without whose withdrawal there can be no continuation of the dialogue. He expressed full support for the mandate of UNMIK in the southern Serbian province. Also, in the light of the discussions preceding the meeting of the UN Security Council, Dacic informed the UN Secretary-General about reaching an agreement on the dynamics of the meetings in the coming period, and that it is more important to keep this issue on the agenda of the UN Security Council than how many sessions per year will be held. The UN Secretary-General expressed readiness for the continuation of the engagement of UNMIK in an objective and constructive manner, according to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Dacic: One of most positive UNSC sessions for Serbia (Tanjug)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic has told Tanjug that this year there will be three sessions of the UNSC on the report on the situation in Kosovo and Metohija. Following the UNSC session on Kosovo, Dacic said that in 2020 two sessions will be devoted to the situation on this territory. Dacic assessed that yesterday’s session was one of the most positive ones for Serbia since all SC member state unanimously condemned the taxes introduced by Pristina and called for immediate abolishment of these measures. Dacic says that he is especially happy that such words were not heard only from representatives of Russia, China, Indonesia, Equatorial Guinea and the South-African Republic that haven’t recognized Kosovo and Metohija, but also from other members, such as the US, which also called for immediate abolishment of taxes, Germany, which stated that this was absolutely against European values, while Belgium, Poland and the Ivory Coast were extremely harsh in condemning the taxes. It is very important that we reached an unanimous agreement by all the members of the UN Security Council that the issue of dynamics in which the sessions will be held will no longer be posed, since this did not depend on Serbia at the end of the day, Dacic assessed. He pointed out that, given that some Western countries do not want the topic of Kosovo at the session of the UN Security Council, there was a danger that this session would not be held at all. We agreed that this year three sessions will be dedicated to the Report of the Secretary General, that is, the situation in the province, with the possibility of convening extraordinary meetings due to positive or negative events, explained Dacic. He also emphasized that an agreement was reached that next year the sessions should be held twice a year, and next year. Dacic expressed gratitude to Equatorial Guinea, which, as he said, acted principally, although this is a small country that presides over the UN Security Council this month, and said that the country is a great friend of Serbia.

UNSC united on issue of Pristina’s taxes (Tanjug/B92)

Another discussion on the UN Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the situation in Kosovo and Metohija has been held at the United Nations Security Council. During the debate, held in spite of the previous opposition by a number of members of the UN Security Council, Pristina institutions were unanimously called on to abolish taxes increased by 100 percent last November on goods coming from Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Different views, however, have been expressed when it comes to the future dynamics of holding these sessions dedicated to the situation in Kosovo and Metohija. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said that Russia shares Serbia’s concerns because of the seriousness of the situation in Kosovo. He told Kosovo Ambassador (to Washington) Vlora Citaku, who referred to this meeting as a charade that if this was her opinion, although invited, she had been under no obligation to attend. He added that Russia does not accept Kosovo being taken off the agenda of the UN Security Council and that it should be under constant control of this body because the situation is unstable and could spiral out of control at any moment. Nebenzya reiterated Russia’s view that Pristina had violated the CEFTA agreement by imposing taxes on Serbian goods and said that Kosovo has since ignored the unconvincing demands coming from its western patrons. According to him, the formation of an army in Kosovo represents a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 and there is no guarantee that this army would not move against the Serbs. He also estimated that statements by Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj about stopping communication with UNMIK would constitute a flagrant violation of the UN resolution and reiterated that Russia’s position is that Kosovo can be represented only via UNMIK. China also noted that it respects Serbia’s sovereignty and Resolution 1244 and UNMIK, and stressed the need to find a solution for the dialogue within this resolution.  The representative of China said that the UN Security Council should continue to hold debates on Kosovo. US Deputy Ambassador to the UN Jonathan Cohen said that UNMIK had fulfilled its mandate and that it was long time to reduce the mission of that body. He recalled that the United States also in the past demanded a reduction of the UNMIK mission, and called for urgent progress in the dialogue with an immediate cancellation of tariffs. The British representative welcomed UNMIK’s work but said that Kosovo was “no longer an acute crisis” and that there were other more important world peace problems, and also interpreted the UNSC Resolution 1244 as not prohibiting the formation of an army in Kosovo.

The French representative said that normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina depends on the dialogue, and repeated the demand for Pristina to revoke, or at least suspend its trade barriers. According to her, France wishes to improve trade between the two sides and see the political will and compromise both from Belgrade and from Pristina.

Vucic: If UNSC is ‘charade’ to you – what are you doing there? (Tanjug/B92)

President Aleksandar Vucic said on Friday that without talks, there is no solution to the Kosovo issue. He stressed that Serbia is strong enough to continue building a better future even without reaching an agreement on this problem. When reporters in the town of Vranje asked him to comment Thursday’s UN Security Council session dedicated Kosovo and Metohija, which the Kosovo ambassador in Washington, who was present, referred to as a charade, Vucic said he no longer knows what representatives of Kosovo want either from Belgrade, or from the world.

“I think that the Russian Ambassador’s question – what were they doing there if the session was a charade to them – was logical. I don’t find it frivolous and a charade when I go to Brussels, the UN, because the stakes are high. And at stake are peace and security, which people are taking for granted – considering that only one spark could set the region on fire”” Vucic said. He added that Pristina is constantly changing statements and messages, unlike himself, because he knows what Belgrade is fighting for. “We get from them a number of different statements daily – am I supposed to read tea leaves or look to the sky to see what they want,” Vucic asked. He stressed, however, that without a deal and a conversation, there will be no solution. “We do not know what they want, what they want from us, from the world… Our policy is rational, serious and responsible, a policy of peace and gradual steps, of approaching a compromise. If someone doesn’t want that – we are strong enough to continue to build a better future for our people and citizens even without an agreement,” Vucic said.  The President was on Friday in the Pcinj District, after launching his campaign “The Future of Serbia” the day before.

Odalovic: Unanimous message sent to Pristina on abolishment of taxes (RTS)

Serbian Foreign Ministry’s General Secretary Veljko Odalovic has told Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS) that several very important messages were sent out from the UNSC session, continuity of reporting was ensured and a unanimous message to Pristina on abolishment of taxes was sent. Even though we will have less session devoted to Kosovo, this will guarantee continuity of reporting, said Odalovic. “It is better to have quarterly reporting than to depend from the Presiding whether this issue will be placed on the agenda as was the case during the presidency of Great Britain. This is a very important measure since you have consensus in the UN where they are debating about the place of their mission,” said Odalovic. According to Odalovic, now we have a quite elaborated situation and confirmation that Serbia has shown consistency that has led to good results. As long as we have UNSCR 1244, any agreement between Belgrade and Pristina must receive an epilogue in the UN.

Scott, Kosnett: Support to Belgrade and Pristina for comprehensive agreement (Politika/Tanjug)

It is time for Kosovo to abolish taxes, and for Serbia to respond in a constructive manner, to stop with provocations from both sides, for Belgrade and Pristina to return to the dialogue led by the EU, and for both sides to courageously opt for peace, the US Ambassadors in Belgrade and Pristina, Kyle Scott and Philip Kosnett respectfully, wrote in an op-ed for dailies Politika and Zeri. They state that Belgrade and Pristina will have full support of the US in this so to form and implement the comprehensive agreement. “If you do so, we are optimists that you can achieve an historical agreement on normalization in 2019,” Scott and Kosnett agree.

Germany against change of borders between Belgrade and Pristina (Beta/DW)

Mihael Roth, Minister of State for Europe at German Foreign Office, said on Thursday Germany was against any solution to the Belgrade – Pristina relations that would involve the changes of border adding it would be hazardous and would destabilize the region, the Beta news agency reported. In an interview with Deutsche Welle in Albanian, Roth added he expected Tirana to use its influence and prevent the destabilization. “The Western Balkans territorial integrity is crucial to us. The attempts to change the borders had caused endless sufferings. That’s why I think such thoughts cannot lead to success but are extremely dangerous,” Roth said.

He reiterated the European Union stand that Belgrade and Pristina need “a comprehensive agreement which will solve all technical issues, finally regulate relations and enable both Serbia and Kosovo to join the EU.” Roth said the US and some European countries had a different view on solving the dispute but said Berlin “believes Kosovo – Serbia agreement should empower stability in both countries.” “I don’t see how that can be achieved by border change. On the contrary, the Western Balkans would not be peaceful. I hear the neighboring countries expressing fear of the domino effect. For the EU accession process that would not be helpful,” Roth said.

REGIONAL PRESS

Republika Srpska forming commissions to review 1992-95 war events (N1)

Authorities of Republika Srpska (RS) plan to form commissions that would be dealing with the suffering of the Serbs in Sarajevo and suffering of all peoples in the eastern town of Srebrenica during the 1992-95 Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) war. The RS Government discussed on Thursday the appointment of the commission’s members which will be formed, as the government members said, to “reconcile these and future generations.” “These two commissions will be dealing with the suffering of peoples in the Srebrenica region and in Sarajevo, in the period 1992-95. This is a very delicate and difficult issue, and I’d like to say that this considers piety for all victims but also collecting of all relevant data regarding the horrors of the past war we all had experienced,” said RS Justice Minister Anton Kasipovic, addressing a press conference after the government session. “It is our goal to shed light on all facts of those tragic events, for the sake of the victims, families, coexistence” he said. Israeli historian Gideon Greif will head the commission for Srebrenica, while academician of the same origin, Raphael Israeli, will be at the helm of the commission for Sarajevo.

RS Vice-President condemns forming of ‘Commission for Srebrenica’ (Fena)

By forming new commissions which would review what happened during the 1992-95 war in Srebrenica and Sarajevo, the RS government is trying to deny the findings of two international courts, RS Vice President Ramiz Salkic said on Thursday. The move creates instability and insecurity, he said. Authorities in RS announced the establishment of commissions that would investigate the suffering of Serbs in Sarajevo and of all peoples in the eastern town of Srebrenica. Officials from the ruling party in RS, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), have for years been saying that what happened in Srebrenica in 1995 was not an act of genocide, despite international courts saying otherwise. Salkic, a Bosniak from the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), pointed out that both the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) had ruled that what happened in Srebrenica was genocide committed against Bosniaks and that neighbouring Serbia was criticized for not preventing it and not punishing those responsible. “The forming of the so-called Commission for Srebrenica by the government of the RS is on the verge of implementing the phase of genocide denial, which includes denying and minimizing the crimes that took place, glorifying war criminals and offending the victims” Salkic said. He said that the move endangers the implementation of Annex VII of the Dayton 1995 Peace Agreement which ended the war in the country. The Annex refers to the right of those who were expelled from their homes in B&H to return. Setting up the Commission “produces fear, doubt and distrust in entity institutions,” Salkic said, adding that this produces a “non-secure environment for the victims who have returned to their homes. The (RS) government’s move produces instability, distrust and endangers peace,” Salkic said. He called upon “all of those who are tasked with securing the implementation of the Dayton Agreement” to react and “protect the victims from further torture and humiliation by those who deny crimes and glorify war criminals.” The victims expect that “such an assault on the truth and justice” will prompt a meeting of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), he said. “This move shows that the (RS) Government is not ready to build a democratic society, a society offering rule of law and equal opportunities for all,” he said. Salkic argued that the move will foster the continuation of “discrimination and domination of stances, ideas and programs of only the Serb people” in the RS, which is contrary to the state and entity constitutions and “basic European values.”

Report on obligations in the process of accession to the EU adopted (Srna)

The RS government adopted today a report on obligations of B&H/RS in the process of accession to the EU, with a review of measures and activities implemented last year and results achieved in harmonizing RS regulations with that of the EU. The aim of the report is to present results achieved in the year 2018 and upcoming obligations in all segments of the process of accession to the EU, including integration policy, that is, the implementation of RS/B&H obligations stemming from the Stabilization and Association Agreement, which entered into force on 1 June 2015. “This includes the harmonization of RS legislation with the EU Acquis Communautaire and legal acts of the Council of Europe, the process of programming and implementation of EU financial instruments that are at the disposal of B&H and RS, translation for the need of European integration and training in the field of European integration” says a press release from the RS Public Relations Office. It says that the report will be sent to the RS Parliament for consideration.

EUFOR Operational Commander meets with Member of Presidency of B&H (Fena)

The EUFOR Operational Commander, General Sir James Everard, visited EUFOR at Camp Butmir, from 3-5 February. The Operational Commander spent 2 days at Camp Butmir where he met with COMEUFOR, Major General Martin Dorfer, and COM NATO HQ Sarajevo, Major General Marti Bissell. General Everard was updated on the EUFOR mission and also presided over a medal parade for 157 soldiers from 10 different troop-contributing nations. Commenting on the time he spent at Camp Butmir, General Everard said: “The EUFOR mission B&H has refocused on its core mandate, to support a safe and secure environment, I am really please with EUFOR’s achievements over the last 2 years”. General Everard attended office calls with the High Representative to B&H, Valentin Inzko, and the European Special Representative to B&H, Lars-Gunnar Wigemark, early on Tuesday 5thFebruary. General Everard had meetings with one of the members of the Presidency of B&H, Sefik Dzaferovic. Commenting on the EUFOR mission to B&H, Presidency member Sefik Dzaferovic said: “The Presidency of B&H views Operation Althea as very important in supporting our efforts to provide peace and stability for the country’s people”. General Everard’s final official meeting of his visit was with the Minister of Defence, Marina Pendes. During the meeting Minister Pendes said: “Thanks to the Capacity Building and Training program that has been delivered by EUFOR, there has been a significant increase in the operational capability, and international interoperability, of the Armed Forces of B&H”.

Darmanovic: Russia’s chief target is the EU (CDM/VOA)

In an interview with the Voice of America, Montenegro foreign minister, Srdjan Darmanovic, told Russia has been striving towards greater influence in the Western Balkans, while the EU represents the main target of its foreign policy. “Russian influence has already been active in our region, unfortunately it’s the one not in favor of the Atlantic and European integrations. This was evident in our own case two years ago. Russia doesn’t declare openly as a European integration opponent, but I think the chief target of the Russian foreign policy is the EU, as this all is about a geopolitical fight which doesn’t mean the countries themselves do not cooperate, especially in economic terms,” Darmanovic said. Russia doesn’t openly disagree with the European integration of the Western Balkans, according to him. “But you see, it wants to have influence in each one of them in various ways, that is, in terms of economy or by encouraging hybrid warfare. This is why I believe the EU must be more active if it wants the Western Balkans to become part of Europe.” Darmanovic also hopes Montenegro will open its last negotiation chapter with the EU during the Romanian presidency, and that the upcoming European elections won’t affect the enlargement policy.

Presidential election to be announced today (Nezavisen vesnik)

Parliament speaker Talat Xhaferi is expected to launch on Friday the presidential election in the country, the first round of which is scheduled for 21 April and the second for 5 May. The term of the current President of the country Gjorge Ivanov ends on 12 May. The term of office of the President of the country lasts five years. At the same time, processes are intensifying in the parties to nominate their candidates in the presidential election. VMRO-DPMNE’s main opposition party will present its candidate at a party meeting to be held on February 16th. Among the most important contenders for VMRO-DPMNE’s nomination, from the nine who have submitted a candidacy, are the Constitutional Law Professor at the Faculty of Law of the University of Skopje, Gordana Siljanovska (64) and the MP of the party, Vlatko Gjorcev (41). In Zoran Zaev‘s ruling Social Democratic Union party (SDSM) there seems to be a dilemma about the nomination of his candidate in the presidential election. Indeed, so far, no candidate names have been announced. The only thing known is that the SDSM will choose its candidate at a party conference to be held on 3 March. According to Skopje’s media, the front-runners to receive SDSM’s vote in the presidential election are Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov, Interior Minister Oliver Spasovski and the National Coordinator of Macedonia for NATO, Stevo Pentarovski, who was also a candidate for the party in the last presidential election and was defeated by Gjorge Ivanov.

Foreign Affairs Committee of US Congress support Macedonia’s NATO membership (Meta)

The Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, Eliot L. Engel has called on President Donald Trump’s administration to support the membership of the future Republic of North Macedonia in NATO. In a letter to Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee writes that the membership of North Macedonia in NATO will help ensure stability and peace in the Balkans. “The membership of North Macedonia in NATO will have a significant benefit, not just for North Macedonia and Greece, but also for the United States and other member states” reads the letter. The letter emphasizes that membership of North Macedonia in the Alliance is a clear sign of NATO’s continued sustainability in the 21st century. “The membership of North Macedonia will help the Alliance reject Russian malicious activities in the Balkans, where Vladimir Putin is trying to sow disorder and disagreement. The acceptance of North Macedonia will bring Europe a step closer to a free, united and peaceful continent,” the letter adds. The Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, in the letter, further encourages Trump’s administration to act quickly on the progress of North Macedonia on its path to becoming the 30th NATO member state.

Zakharova: Macedonia’s NATO membership could curb its independence (Republika)

Macedonia may prove unable to pursue an independent foreign policy following its accession to NATO, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a briefing on Thursday. “You will certainly have to pay for the protection by NATO. I already know what the price is for it. It will be necessary to pay as a result of the increase of the defense costs, participation in military preparations, operations that are far from the interests of the Macedonian people, and also the loss of the possibility of conducting a sovereign foreign policy,” said Zakharova. According to her, the Russian Foreign Ministry cannot understand from what threats NATO plans to protect Macedonia. “The Kosovo army, which is being formed of former Albanian militants, is the only serious military power that is destabilizing the region. We don’t see any other security threats and so we ask ourselves: is it possible that NATO will once again wage a war against those who received training and weapons from the Alliance?” Zakharova said.

Kosachev: Macedonia’s accession to NATO will not bring anything good (Meta)

The Chairman of the Committee on International Relations of the Council of the Russian Federation, Konstantin Kosachev, has determined that Macedonia’s signing of the Accession Protocol for NATO is perhaps a symbolic act, but is important for the Alliance, given the growing conflict between the Alliance and Moscow. “This is more of a symbolic step than a practical one, because it’s a small country that has no relevance to NATO. However, it is important for the Alliance, given the conflict with Russia, who constantly points to the destructive role of NATO as a remnant of the Cold War,” says Kosachev. According to him, the whole case around Macedonia shows that Russian dissatisfaction with the Alliance is justified. It also points out that criticism of US President Donald Trump at the expense of NATO has played a key role. “It has undoubtedly alarmed officials from the Alliance in Brussels, who are now doing everything to show Washington that NATO is doing well well and that it is expanding,” says Kosachev. The Russian senator believes that joining NATO will not bring anything good to Macedonia, nor to European security.

Meta meeting with US Congress Chairwoman Pelosi (ADN)

Albanian President Ilir Meta, following his visit in Washington D.C, attended this Thursday the Morning of Prayers in the presence of US President Donald Trump, senators, congressmen, as well as political and religious personalities from around the world. He held a friendly meeting also with the Chairwoman of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, whom he congratulated for her election on this important task. The Head of the State stressed the important role that the American Congress has been supporting Albania and promoting democracy and the rule of law. Meta also met with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. According to Meta, the main topic of the discussion was the partnership between the two countries as well as the importance of strengthening security and stability in the region. “I was very happy to meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the Washington Morning Prayer. We talked about the excellent partnership of our two countries and the importance of strengthening security and stability in our region. God bless Albanian-American friendship,” said Meta. In addition, Meta was received by Congressman Robert Aderholt, member of the American Helsinki Committee and co-chair of the US-Albania Friendship Group. During his speech, the Head of the State, expressed gratitude for US support in Albania’s efforts to consolidate democracy and the rule of law, NATO membership, and the fulfillment of the Euro-Atlantic aspiration. “For Albanians, the US is and will remain the key strategic partner. Relationships between the two countries are of vital importance to us. It is imperative that the need for a firmer commitment of the US in our region as a guarantee for all American investment but also as an indispensable aid for the successful finalization of the final agreement between Kosovo and Serbia,” said Meta. Meanwhile, Congressman Aderholt, assured President Meta of unremitting commitment to strengthening the achievements in the Western Balkans thanks to the constant US commitment to peace, freedom and stability.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

‘Antagonistic gestures and accusations’ drown out Kosovo dialogue hopes, Security Council hears (UN News, 7 February 2019)

Prospects for a “swift resumption” of substantive talks between the leaderships of Kosovo and Serbia have been put on the back burner in recent months, by a tendency to resort instead to “antagonistic gestures and accusations” said the head of the UN Mission in Kosovo.

Zahir Tanin, the head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), was briefing the UN Security Council on Thursday via video link, telling members that antagonism and accusations “continue to be far more prominent than efforts to return to a new phase of dialogue”. Kosovo, which has an ethnic-Albanian majority, broke away from Serbia in a bloody conflict which began in 1998, with the Security Council authorizing temporary administrative powers to the UN, in 1999. Kosovo unilaterally declared independence a decade later, backed by the United States and United Kingdom, among others. But Serbia, backed diplomatically by Russia, has never accepted the split, and Kosovo has not achieved full member status at the United Nations. Mr. Tanin, delivering his first report of the year to the Council on the state of relations, said the lack “of a unified stance” in the Kosovar capital Pristina, on how to resume talks with Belgrade, “has reached a critical point in the days since the close of the reporting period, raising concerns about the continued viability of the current Government coalition in Kosovo”. Among specific flash points, Kosovo announced a new 100 per cent tariff on goods from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzogovina in November last year, and Serbia has said that talks are off the table until the hike is reversed. Kosovo heightened tensions further by declaring its right to build its national Security Force, into a professional army – a move condemned by Serbia as an act of “political aggression”. Special Representative Tanin said that UNMIK was focusing on “people-to-people engagement” in Kosovo, collaborating with the UN Kosovo team, and leveraging its “limited resources” with international partners. He said important progress had been made in the work of the “Working Group on missing persons”, adding that it should be kept clear of political influence “in order to maintain the momentum on this issue, which is vital to long-term reconciliation”. “Let me underline the importance of the support by all members of this Council for the engagement between Belgrade and Pristina” he concluded, adding that “reducing tensions, enhancing mutual trust, and removing obstacles to the dialogue, are crucial to stability in the region”.

Zaharova: Pristina’s provocations and Belgrade’s balanced stand (Sputnik, 7 February 2019)

Commenting the statement by Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj on stopping communication with UNMIK, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zaharova said the situation in Kosovo should be in the focus of the UNSC. She noted the fact that the EU, which has the mandate of the UN to mediate in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, has lost the capability to influence the situation. “In that context, Belgrade’s responsible and balanced position is drawing the attention, which underlines readiness to return to dialogue, when the so-called Kosovo Prime Minister withdraws his unacceptable decisions. Also, I would like to stress that Serbia has not yet undertaken reciprocal measures,” said Zaharova.

Greek lawmakers to vote on FYROM name deal’s last hurdle (AP, 7 February 2019)

A Greek parliament committee is debating whether to sign off on the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) joining NATO, the final hurdle to be cleared before its northern neighbor can formally be renamed “Republic of North Macedonia.” The committee debate on Thursday began a process that is set to lead to a vote in parliament on Friday night. Lawmakers are expected to approve FYROM’s accession. While opposition parties don’t support the move, Greece’s left-led government controls the necessary majority needed for passage. In that case, Greece would formally notify FYROM within days and FYROM would proceed with the name change. Greece’s support for FYROM becoming a NATO member was part of a deal that ended a 27-year dispute. Greece had argued that its small landlocked neighbor’s current name implied claims on Greek territory and cultural heritage.

Why China and Russia are Vying for Influence Over the Balkans (The National Interest, by Scott B. MacDonald, 7 February 2019)

The Balkans is poised to become the next geopolitical frontier, which is why Russia and China are so eager to invest in the region.

It was Otto von Bismarck, architect for Germany’s unification and rise to world power, who is alleged to have referred to the Balkans as the powder keg of Europe, a region whose internal problems often had a tendency to pull in outside powers. Indeed, it would only be sixteen years after the great statesman’s death that the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand would ignite the bloodbath of World War I. Since then the Balkans have remained a challenging geopolitical region, roiled by World War II, the Cold War and finally Yugoslavia’s savage unwinding in the early 1990s. The last gave birth to a number of countries, the tremors of which are still being felt today. This was made evident again in late January 2019, when the Greek parliament voted to give official diplomatic recognition to the Republic of North Macedonia. For a region where the interests of the European Union (EU), Turkey, Russia, China and the United States overlap, the political and economic development of even a small state like North Macedonia matters. Since its independence in 1991 North Macedonia has been contending with pressures of creating a democracy out of an ethnic mosaic, which consists of a majority of Macedonians (a Slavic people) and a significant minority of Albanians, Turks, Romani, Serbs, and others. Together they account for about 25 percent of the population. The country’s political life has had an undercurrent of repeated crises related to problems in the neighborhood, including an overflow of refugees from fighting next door in Kosovo and a brief Albanian insurgency in 2001–2002. Furthermore, Macedonia was part of the recent migration of people from the Middle East to Western Europe, which strained the country’s resources. As if the political challenges were not enough, North Macedonia’s economy is one of the poorest in Europe. Long closely linked to the larger Yugoslav economy, the newly independent state took considerable measures to open up the economy, making trade in a wide range of goods to EU markets a priority. Although Germany and other EU countries are now its major trade partners, the country’s exports remain heavily dependent on transit to northern European markets through Serbia.

North Macedonia’s outlook remains challenging. According to the International Monetary Fund, unemployment is over 20 percent, the labor market is hurt by skill shortages, the educational system needs an overhaul, and there is a need for a more impartial judiciary, all of which are needed to improve investment and growth prospects. Also critical to the country’s development is better infrastructure, especially in transportation. The Balkan country had yet another problem; despite Skopje’s (the national capital) interest in overcoming its relative diplomatic isolation and desire to become a member of the EU and NATO, the path to membership was complicated and stalled by Greece, its neighbor to the south. Starting in 1991 the Republic of Macedonia and Greece had a major problem—the name of the new state. For Greece, the problem was the name of that the new state was similar to one of its regions, which includes its second largest city, Thessaloniki. By claiming to be “Macedonia” there was concern that Skopje might one day seek to create a greater Macedonia, which would encompass parts of northern Greece, southwestern Bulgaria, southeastern Albania, southern Kosovo and Serbia. As the new country was initially in need of establishing diplomatic relations and joining international organizations, it became known as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYRM), under which it joined the United Nations in 1993. The impasse between the FYRM and Greece, however, was not an optimal situation for either country. Pressure to find a solution mounted over the last decade as trade links between the two countries gradually expanded; Greece’s depression (2010–2017) made it more important for Athens to improve relations with its northern neighbor; and the FYRM is playing an important role in the formation of new energy pipelines connecting Russia and European markets. Greece is highly dependent on imported energy and having a better relationship with its northern neighbor would be useful in this regard. Enter Russia. Over the past decade the Russians have been active in stepping up their presence in the Balkans, a region of traditional interest. Various plans for pipelines for Russian gas (seeking to bypass Ukraine with which Russia has tense relations) include North Macedonia (among other countries). At the same time, North Macedonia is working to construct a country-wide natural gas pipeline and distribution network. Most of the country’s natural gas already comes from Russia via Bulgaria. However, in 2016 North Macedonia and Greece signed a memorandum of understanding to build an interconnector that could connect to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, or to an LNG import terminal in Greece. Russia’s preference is for North Macedonia to remain outside of any Western alliance system like NATO and the EU. Russia would prefer North Macedonia and other countries in the region to fall more into its orbit. As the former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker in Foreign Policy noted in late 2018, “a Balkans region that is slowly, but surely becoming a normal part of Europe would upset Russia’s ambitions to keeping Europe divided into spheres of influence; of legitimizing nondemocratic, non-Western forms of top-down rule; and of creating opportunities for Russia to exercise influence through corruption, loaded energy deals, intelligence operations, and disinformation. Where Russia sees instability, insecurity, and weakness as opportunities, the EU tries to build stability, security and prosperity.” Russia has been active in other parts of the Balkans, including Bulgaria and Romania, where it sought to influence elections. There were also investigations in Montenegro over an alleged pro-Russian coup attempt in 2016. Russia’s strategy is to maintain an important role in the Balkans, which are dominated by the EU (especially in terms of trade and investment), but it is a region that still has massive needs for infrastructure help. The opening for Russia is that the EU’s own internal politics have slowed the rush for new members, leaving countries like North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Serbia and Albania outside of their organization. China has been one of these countries willing and able to engage the Balkans and that includes North Macedonia. China has been active in bidding for business in the infrastructure area, in particular on the country’s transportation system. According to American Enterprise Institute’s China Investment Tracker, China’s foreign direct investment and contracts in North Macedonia during the 2005–2018 period has amounted to $400 million, all of it in the transportation sector. For China, North Macedonia is an important link between its port facilities in Greece (where it has invested in the same period $9.88 billion of which $6.7 billion has been in transport) and Serbia ($10.2 billion led by $4.84 billion in transport and $3.07 billion in energy). As China pursues its modernization of the old Silk Road through its Belt and Road Initiative the Balkans, including North Macedonia, will gain in significance as stepping stones into the broader and more affluent western European markets.

Considering all of the above, the January 25 Greek parliament vote (of 153 to 146) in favor of an agreement with its northern neighbor to recognize its decision to change its name from Macedonia to the Republic of North Macedonia has considerable consequence. The Greek vote is a major step for regional stability and a victory for the EU in the Balkan geopolitical game. Significantly it is clears the way for North Macedonia to move toward NATO and EU memberships at a faster pace. Indeed, one of the first to provide a positive response to the news was NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who tweeted that the vote is “an important contribution to the stability and prosperity of the region. I look forward to the future Republic of North Macedonia joining NATO.” For its part, the United States recognized the Republic of Macedonia early in its existence and has been supportive of its membership into NATO and other Euro-Atlantic institutions. Indeed, in September 2018, then Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, visited Skopje, calling the country “a reliable security partner and a valued contributor to global peace and security.” At the same time, Mattis noted that Russia was conducting a veiled propaganda campaign against the name change in Macedonia. The Balkans will remain a major geopolitical frontier, considering the region’s economic needs. The overlapping interests of Europe, Russia, China, and Turkey, which has its own links to local Muslim communities, will also ensure the region stays relevant. For Europe to maintain a dominant role it needs to be active in the game, something it has done through various financial institutions, such as the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Bulgaria, Romania and Greece are already EU members, but the Western Balkans remain apart and open the economic statecraft of China and Russia. This makes it all the more important that the EU play its economic statecraft well. Also, the EU must continue to be supportive of deepening democracy and civic society. Along these lines, the January 2019 Greek vote was a victory, but now comes the hard part, getting North Macedonia (and other parts of the Western Balkans) up to the standards that Europe expects for a closer embrace, which means tackling government efficiency, transparency, corruption as well as improving democratic practices.

Scott B. MacDonald is chief economist for Smith’s Research and Gradings.