18 Sep 14
The announced pause in the European Union enlargement process has obvious consequences for the Balkan region, where several countries are anxiously knocking at the door.

Gjeraqina Tuhina
Brussels

No new members will be allowed to join the 28-member European Union for at least the next five years. This has been confirmed by the newly elected President of European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker - and his words were formalized last week, when his new team did not include a specific enlargement commissioner.

When Juncker unveiled his team last week in Brussels, it had had seven vice presidents and 27 commissioners. Notably absent was an enlargement commissioner, however.

Instead, the enlargement portfolio has been merged with the European Neighborhood Policy and entrusted to the Austrian Johannes Hahn, who will deal also only with “enlargement negotiations”. Hahn is part of the old commission team who served in Jose Manuel Barroso’s team in charge of Regional Policy.

In the letter that Juncker sent to his new commissioner, he stated clearly that the European Union sought no new members in the near future.

“After the enlargement of the Union in the last decade, the next five years will be a period of consolidation, with no further enlargement taking place during our mandate. You will be responsible for continuing ongoing enlargement negotiations, notably with the Western Balkans,” Juncker wrote in his letter.

However disappointing to would-be members, the EU’s decision to halt enlargement is not far from the current reality on the ground and the actual state of play.

The last country to join the European Union was Croatia, in July 2013. This was the first country from the Western Balkans group to join the EU family, unless one includes the former Yugoslav republic of Slovenia, which joined in 2004.

The other countries from the region are asymmetrically placed in the process of European integration.

Montenegro and Serbia are at the head of the queue as they have started accession negotiations. Macedonia is also a candidate country and has been so for almost a decade. It obtained that status in 2005.

However, Macedonia can only start the process of negotiations once the dispute with Greece over its name is solved – which will not be any time soon. Albania obtained candidate status in June but it has no possibility of starting accession talks in the near future.

Bosnia and Herzegovina has contractual relations with European Union but cannot submit a candidacy request as long as it is a de-facto international protectorate. It has also failed to reform its constitution in line with a European Court of Human Rights ruling from 2009.

Kosovo is at the back of the line. It has only initialized a Stabilization and Association agreement and cannot move forward in the integration process owing to the fact that five EU members EU – Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Slovakia and Romania – do not recognize its independence from Serbia.

Juncker’s decision raised eyebrows in European circles. Because enlargement has been used as a carrot by Brussels to push the Balkans states ahead in their reform processes, EU diplomats wonder how will they push those countries further to undertake necessary measures in the name of EU integration.

One high-ranking European diplomat deeply involved in Balkans matters, the Swedish foreign minister, Carl Bildt, was outspoken concerning the decision. In a tweet, Bildt qualified it as a bad signal and as an “abdication of responsibility”.

Corina Stratulat, senior policy analyst from the European Policy Center, argues that the decision should not demoralize countries in the region. According to Stratulat, Commissioner Hahn has the potential to play a constructive role in pushing forward the enlargement policy.

“As no new EU accession is feasible for the next five years, the focus will be on the ongoing negotiations with Montenegro and Serbia, as well as on ensuring that the other Balkan aspirant countries make progress on their EU integration tracks,” Startulat told Balkan Insight.

“The Balkan countries should not therefore be discouraged and should continue with their reform and transformation efforts.”

However, a number of other experts think differently. Augustin Palokaj, a Brussels-based correspondent who has followed enlargement for almost two decades, concedes that the decision to officially halt enlargement is not far from reality, as it is unrealistic to expect any country to be ready to join soon.

“However, having in mind that enlargement is also a political process in which even symbolic messages are important, it will not have a positive impact in the Western Balkan states,” Palokaj told Balkan Insight.

“Just as it is important that citizens and politicians in some EU countries be told that no new countries will become EU members in the near future, it is equally important to tell the people of Balkans that the doors of the EU are not closed to them,” Palokaj said.

Gjeraqina Tuhina is correspondent for Kosovo's public TV, RTK, in Brussels.