LOCAL PRESS

 

Dacic: Serbia on good path owing to strategic choices (Tanjug/RTS/Beta)

 

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said on Thursday that the key foreign policy priorities of Serbia are the struggle for the preservation of territorial integrity and sovereignty, the continuation of the EU negotiation process, and the further development of good neighborly relations. In a speech to students of the Diplomatic Academy themed “Serbia’s foreign policy priorities”, Dacic said that Serbia is on the right track, thanks to its foreign policy and strategic choices made in recent years. He said that Serbia’s strategic choices are the reform path and membership in the EU, improving relations with the creators of the world politics which are Russia, China and the United States, the development of relations with friendly countries of Africa, Asia and South America, and the key and most important priority of our foreign policy is the preservation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state, with Kosovo and Metohija as an integral part of Serbia. Although we believe that the road to the EU can be faster, we support the “regatta principle”, according to which the progress of each country individually is assessed, and not of all the countries of the region in “package”, he underlined. Dacic also stressed that developed and successful regional cooperation, through numerous regional initiatives, also contributes to EU membership, and in this sense highlighted the significance of the Berlin Process.

 

Vulin: Unclear why Dikovic was denied US visa (Tanjug)

 

Serbian Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin said it was unclear why the US embassy in Belgrade had denied Serbian Armed Forces Chief of General Staff Gen Ljubisa Dikovic a visa for a trip to Washington for an October conference on fighting violent extremist organizations. Dikovic is a brave and honorable officer the SAF is proud of and nothing in his wartime career or his life can be the reason to be denied a visa, Vulin said.

 

Dikovic: I have never committed or ordered a crime (Tanjug)

 

Serbian Armed Forces Chief of General Staff Gen Ljubisa Dikovic said Thursday he had taken part in a heroic fight for Kosovo and Metohija, dismissing claims that he had committed or ordered any crime. Visiting a memorial room dedicated to Serbs who have been kidnapped or gone missing in Kosovo and Metohija, Dikovic said about three quarters of the people had been kidnapped after the arrival of international forces in Kosovo.

 

Russian Humanitarian Center in Nis not to get diplomatic status (Danas)

 

Serbia will not assign the diplomatic status to the Russian-Serbian humanitarian center in Nis, Danas reads on Friday. The daily’s sources in the highest ranking authorities claim that President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic said this to President of Russia Vladimir Putin during his recent visit to Moscow. The sources said they did not know if such a stand would be communicated to the general public and how it would be done except that the decision not to assign a special status to the center in Nis did not change since 2014, when Russia requested diplomatic status for its humanitarian center after NATO obtained the same status for their personnel.

Danas reads they did not manage to verify the information from diplomatic sources among the high ranking authorities about whether Vucic discussed finding the compromise solution with Putin that would imply special status for the center staff, but not for the transit of goods.

 

EU sources: Juncker to push Belgrade and Podgorica faster; Mogherini favors package (Beta)  

 

This year, the EU will give important political support to the Western Balkan countries on the path to EU membership, because the awareness has prevailed among the European partners about this region, which has been pushed aside in a way, being once again burdened with conflict and instability, which would undoubtedly reflect on the EU itself. Beta learned this from EU diplomatic sources in Brussels, who said that, in Sofia on Jan. 12, the heads of the European Commission and of the Bulgarian EU presidency would round off the guidelines for a strategy that would clear the way for the Western Balkan countries' EU membership.

 

US Senate report: Attack on Serbia, Trump, or Putin? (B92/Sputnik)

 

A report prepared for the US Senate Committee on Foreign relations, whose excerpts b92.net published on Thursday, is starting to cause reactions. The report, dubbed, "Putin’s asymmetric assault on democracy in Russia and Europe: implications for US national security," dedicates an entire chapter to Serbia. Former Yugoslav foreign minister Vladislav Jovanovic told Sputnik that the initiative coming from US Democrats is two-sided - with one side facing Serbia, and the other Russia. Where it concerns Serbia, the document shows that those behind it, and the United States, view Serbia more as an object of desire than a sovereign state that can take care of its own interests independently, and decide which side, when, and to what degree, is exerting "some whimsical malign influence," Jovanovic said. As for Russia, he continued, its influence in Serbia measured against that of America and its allies and organizations, is about 1 to 100. "The dominant influence of America and the western countries in Serbia, compared to Russia, is too huge. This is seen also in the meddling in (Serbia's) electoral processes. Let's recall that until 2000, America and western countries openly interfered in electoral processes financially, politically, with propaganda, information, and even boasted about it. Never mind other forms of meddling that continued later," Jovanovic said. "As for other forms of their presence, it is especially expressed in the often unfiltered statements made about Serbia, where open attempts to influence Serbia's foreign policy manifest themselves. As for the number of NGOs, there, too, the so-called pro-western NGOs hugely overpower the likely small, even negligible number of the Russian ones," he said. Referring to the report as "that initiative," Jovanovic described is as less a reflection of a sincere desire to repair America's presence and influence, and more a move aimed at tying Serbia's hands, and if at all possible, completely driving out any form of Russia's influence from Serbia, and with that, from the Balkans.

Political scientist Dmitry Evstafiev, who specializes in the US and Canada, thinks the report's appearance signals a new sharpening of the internal political struggle in the US. It is crystal clear, he thinks, that the Trump administration has failed to defeat the Democratic Party in the information war, i.e., that the Democrats are using all available resources and possibilities to accuse the president of allegedly betraying America's interests internationally. According to the report, Russia's malign influence in Serbia manifests itself "through cultural ties, propaganda, energy sector, and an expanding military cooperation," while, according to US State Department data, the number of NGOs and media with a pro-Russian stance has increased significantly.

Objectively, says Evstafiev, the report reflects a complete change in the balance of power in Europe, and specifically in the Balkans, and this can be seen first in the ways in which various forms of influence are being exerted, for example, through NGOs and media that use new formats. "The US no longer has that undisputed primacy, and that worries and frightens them terribly. This report reflects what the American elite and establishment are thinking. It's a different matter that everything that's said turns into general anti-Russian hysteria, which is very, very dangerous," he said. America's foreign policy toward Serbia, Evstafiev continued, was formulated and demonstrated "in great detail" back in 1999 - "when Kosovo was separated" by means of military intervention.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Komsic announces candidacy for B&H Presidency (Oslobodjenje)

 

The leader of DF Zeljko Komsic will be a candidate for the post of a member of B&H Presidency in upcoming General Elections 2018 in B&H. Komsic told the daily that he will certainly run for the post and he will run for the post of Croat member of B&H Presidency. To reporter’s remark that this could cause additional complications in B&H, Komsic said that this is something that those who “brought us in this situation”, should be thinking about. He underlined that country is in worse situation than it was caused by the Dayton, adding that B&H is not moving forward towards EU standards, but it is moving backwards. “I am not sure if Dragan Covic is aware of the repercussions of him mentioning the second and third scenarios. When he is already mentioning the second and third scenarios, he should be aware that there are the second and third scenarios for his scenarios. Are we supposed to shake before Covic’s announcements and his scenarios? When he can announce these scenarios, he should know that there are scenarios for him and his policy,” said Komsic.

 

Crnadak: I do not expect any change in relations between B&H and Georgia (BHT1)

 

B&H Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Crnadak stated on Thursday that he does not expect any change in relations between B&H and Georgia, after Georgia sent a diplomatic note to B&H criticizing the visit of the South Ossetia delegation to Banja Luka. Crnadak confirmed that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was in no way included in the arrival of the delegation of South Ossetia, which has not been internationally recognized, in Banja Luka. Crnadak accused the current RS authorities of causing damage to the RS by inviting the delegation of South Ossetia and devaluating the RS’ international position. According to the B&H minister, the RS authorities thereby presented the RS, which is internationally supported and recognized by all UN member states, as equal to the region of suspicious international status.

 

Ivanic: Position of US Assistant Deputy Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia is important to B&H (Dnevni list)

 

Member of the Presidency of B&H Mladen Ivanic stated on Thursday he is convinced the US is going to select an adequate Ambassador to B&H. He refused to comment unofficial claims that Brian Hoyt Yee is likely to be appointed new US Ambassador to B&H following his resignation to the post of US Assistant Deputy Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. Ivanic said it remains to be seen what the US authorities plan to do next: “The position of the US Assistant Deputy Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs is important to us, and we have to wait and see who is going to be appointed.”

Ivanic also confirmed that the Presidency of B&H did not discuss a visit of President of unilaterally declared South Ossetia Anatoly Bibilov to Banja Luka on the RS Day.

 

Sofia hosts ceremony as Bulgaria takes over Presidency of Council of EU: Western Balkan will be priority (Al Jazeera)

 

The Bulgarian capital of Sofia hosted a ceremony on Thursday evening, as the country’s takes over the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU. According to announcements, Bulgarian six-month-long Presidency of the Council of the EU will put bringing the Western Balkan countries closer to the EU, as one of its priorities. The country’s officials actually called the Presidency as the “Western Balkans Presidency of the Council of the EU”.

 

FMs Dimitrov, Kotzias expect for UN mediator to offer initial framework for name row settlement (MIA)

 

The Macedonian, Greek Foreign Ministers, Nikola Dimitrov and Nikos Kotzias respectively, expect for UN mediator Matthew Nimetz at the meeting on 17 January in New York to offer an initial framework that will make substantial progress in surpassing Skopje-Athens differences over the name. Dimitrov and Kotzias discussed Thursday in Thessaloniki on the methodology, approach of the two countries and the framework related to the name issue. They agreed to take a more direct role in the talks to overcome the difference over the name, Macedonia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a press release.

They also tackled the possibilities for advancing the bilateral relations and cooperation in a broader context related to the ongoing confidence building measures. The meeting was held within the framework of established dialogue and consultations between the two countries, directed towards strengthening the transparency and mutual trust.

Greece's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an identical press release with Macedonia's MoFA, MIA reports from Athens.

 

MP Grubi expects President Ivanov, VMRO-DPMNE to support language law (MIA)

 

The adoption of the Law on the Use of Languages concludes the normative aspect of the Ohrid Framework Agreement, MP Artan Grubi said Thursday. "Fifteen years after the signing of the Ohrid Framework Agreement, today's adoption of the law on languages marked the conclusion of the normative aspect of this peace treaty that put an end to the 2001 war. Thus, today is a successful day and I congratulate all citizens on their courageous approach to complete this peace agreement. All we have to do now is to implement everything that has been adopted in Parliament," stated MP Grubi of DUI, the government coalition partner. He said he expected the opposition party VMRO-DPMNE, being one of the signatories of the Ohrid Accord, to back the law. VMRO-DPMNE MPs didn't attend today's session. According to Grubi, Macedonia, its society will benefit from the law by becoming more cohesive, inter-ethnic relations will become more relaxed and it will help close many issues stemming from the Framework Agreement.

Unless President Gjorge Ivanov, he said, decides against signing the bill, this move would be against the Framework Agreement. In that case, the law would be returned in Parliament for a re-vote. "I call on President Ivanov to become part of the successful story of concluding the Ohrid Framework Agreement by signing the decree, thus contributing to a more stable society where all citizens are equal," stated MP Grubi. According to him, all MPs, both ruling and opposition deputies, should support reform-oriented laws, because 'the reform agenda is not an agenda of the government, it is the agenda of the country.'

Furthermore, MP Fadil Zendeli of the opposition party Besa said his party supported the law on the use of languages even though it failed in making the use of Albanian language official.

"Besa has already announced it would support the law, even though we have some remarks about it. We believe this law doesn't make the Albanian language official, it only allows certain improvements to be made regarding the use of Albanian in state institutions," said Zendeli.

 

SDSM: Law on Use of Languages complies with Constitution (MIA)

 

The Law on the Use of Languages complies with the Constitution and Amendment V adopted 17 years ago, said ruling SDSM on Thursday. "The law changes do not jeopardize the constitutional position of the Macedonian language and its Cyrillic letter as an official language at the entire territory of the country, as well as in international relations, but enhances the use of languages of all communities in Macedonia," SDSM said in a press release. According to the party, VMRO-DPMNE's reaction is cowardly and unfounded, since they could have defended any claims at today's Parliament session, instead of running away from it.

 

VMRO-DPMNE says law on use of languages unconstitutional (MIA)

 

VMRO-DPMNE says the Law on the Use of Languages, which the ruling majority adopted on Thursday, is unconstitutional. VMRO-DPMNE says the law has been adopted through deceit.

"By EU-flagging the law, the authorities abused the procedure of passing laws that are important for the country's EU integration," VMRO-DPMNE said in a press release. According to the party, the law does not contribute to the enhancement of rights of the Albanian community in Macedonia, but deepens differences and harms the homogeneity of the society. "Bilingualism will create chaos in the legislative sector, create inefficient institutions that will drown in the translation between languages, instead of benefiting citizens," says VMRO-DPMNE.

 

Kosovo commends Macedonia parliament on adopting language law (MIA)

 

Kosovo on Thursday welcomed the Macedonian Parliament for adopting the law on the use of languages. According to Kosovo President Hashim Thaci, it is a top democratic achievement for the neighboring country, one of the first nations that have recognized Kosovo. "To advance the political rights of the Albanians in Macedonia paves the way towards a stronger civil and ethnic unity in the neighboring republic. We congratulate the Albanian citizens on this political, administrative and cultural achievement," Thaci said in a post on his Facebook profile.

The law's adoption, he added, is a crucial step stemming from the Ohrid Accord.

 

Rama welcomes adoption of language law in Macedonia (MIA)

 

The adoption of the law on the use of languages in Macedonia dominated the headlines in Albania. Albanian media have been widely reporting about the adoption hailing it as 'a historic event' that finally makes the Albanian language in Macedonia official. Top state officials also welcomed the law's adoption. "The enactment by the parliament in Skopje of the law on the Albanian language is a historic achievement for the Albanians that democratizes and strengthens Macedonia itself," Albanian Premier Edi Rama said in a post on his Facebook profile.

 

MoFA hosts EEAS - WB6 meeting in Skopje (MIA)

 

Macedonia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) hosted Thursday a meeting of the European External Action Service (EEAS) and political directors of the Western Balkan countries (WB6).

MoFA State Secretary Viktor Dimovski and EEAS Deputy Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jean-Christophe Belliard co-chaired the gathering, which discussed on the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries and matters related to the EU's Eastern Partnership, MoFA said in a press release. The discussion also tackled the EU common foreign and security policy, current developments in the region and beyond. Dimovski commended the EU overall commitment to Macedonia and the region, expressing belief that it would be crowned with the Balkans' accession to the Union.

 

Albanian 2nd language in Macedonia, Meta welcomes the decision (ADN)

 

Albanian President Ilir Meta welcomed on Thursday the decision of the Macedonian Parliament to make Albanian the country's second official language. "Dear Friends, as soon as I arrived at Ljubljana airport, I received the great news that the Macedonian Parliament has adopted the law on the use of the Albanian language. It is an important act, not only for Albanians but also for the European future of Macedonia," said Meta.

A previous law, which arose from a 2001 peace deal ending an armed conflict between ethnic Albanian rebels and government forces, granted that right only in areas where the minority was larger than 20 percent of the population.

 

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

 

Want stability in the Balkans? Then bring back Yugoslavia (RT, by Neil Clark, 11 January 2018)

 

The influential US think-tank the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has the Balkans on its conflict prevention list in its recently published 2018 survey. However the idea, promoted by the CFR, that the US is the country that can help preserve ‘peace and stability‘ needs to be challenged – as it is the US and its closest NATO allies themselves who are actually responsible for many of the problems currently afflicting the region. These problems all stem from the violent break-up of the multi-ethnic Yugoslavia in the 1990s, a process which the western powers supported and indeed actively encouraged.  But this is not mentioned in the CFR’s background paper‘ The Unravelling of the Balkan Peace Agreements’ (Contingency Planning Memorandum No 32). Instead it’s the Russians who, surprise, surprise, are cast as the bad guys – with "Russian destabilization of Montenegro or Macedonia" listed as one of the possible 2018 scenarios. The truth is however that all the possible "flash points" identified by the CFR- which could lead to conflict, can be directly linked not to Moscow but to the consequences of earlier US or western-led interventions and destabilization campaigns.

Let’s start with the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Here the CFR’s concern is an independence referendum being held in Republika Srpska. But the Americans, who have championed self-determination for Kosovan Albanians as part of their strategy of prizing Kosovo away from Yugoslavia, and then Serbia, can hardly oppose Bosnian Serbs voting to decide their own future. If the "territorial integrity" of Bosnia matters so much, why didn’t the "territorial integrity" of Yugoslavia? In Kosovo itself, tensions remain high between the Albanian and Serbian populations. NATO’s ‘humanitarian’ intervention of 1999 was supposed to have resolved all this, but in fact it was the west who greatly stirred things up with their backing of the hardline Kosovan Liberation Army and marginalization of moderate Kosovan voices who favored dialogue with Belgrade. Macedonia is another potential ‘flash point.’ The CFR warns that disaffected sections of the large Albanian minority could look to unite with Kosovo or Albania. In Montenegro, ethnic Serbs in the north still reject the ‘independent’ government in Podgorica and look instead to Belgrade. “Ethnic politics in the Balkans are interconnected,” the CFR says. “If Republika Srpska tries to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina, some Serbs in northern Kosovo will try to leave Kosovo, and some Albanians in southern Serbia will try to leave Serbia. Some Muslims in Serbia could also want to unite with what remains of Bosnia and Herzegovina. If Macedonia is partitioned, its Albanians could want a union with Kosovo and potentially with Albania and Albanian-majority municipalities of southern Serbia, which would trigger the ethnic partitions of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Serbia,” their report states. If that all sounds pretty complicated, then perhaps you can understand why so many people in the region are nostalgic for Yugoslavia. “For the 50 years of Yugoslavia and Tito’s rule, the Balkans were stable. They weren’t considered the powder keg of Europe. And now we are back to being the powder keg,” was the view of one Antonye Nedelkovski, a former Partisan, quoted in PRI’s article The Rise of Yugo-Nostalgia, in 2015. Last year a Gallup poll, reported by RFE/RL, showed that clear majorities in Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, and 45 percent of people in Slovenia – which are usually regarded as the most ‘successful’ ex-Yugoslav republics – thought the breakup of Yugoslavia was a bad thing. Yugoslavia gave the people of the Balkans not just stability, but economic security. It made sense for the people of the region to come together in one federal state. ‘Brotherhood and Unity’ was much better for everybody than ethnic tensions and disunity. As Besim Spahic, quoted in the RFE/RL piece, says: “In [Josip Broz] Tito’s Yugoslavia, Bosnia was defined as a common state of Serbs, Croats, and Muslims. The focus was on shared values between different ethnic groups. Now the differences are highlighted and blown out of proportion.” Yugoslavia achieved enormous success in the fields of culture, sport, art, education and human development. Its destruction was a tragedy not just for the people of the Balkans but for mankind in general. In the old Cold War, non-aligned socialist Yugoslavia served a purpose for the West. The Yugoslav President, the former wartime Partisan leader Josip Broz Tito, generally received a good press. Leftist intellectuals wrote enthusiastically about the Yugoslav model of workers’ self-management. Westerners watched and enjoyed high quality Yugoslav films and television programs and booked package holidays to the country. But, after the Berlin Wall came down, Yugoslavia became ‘the expendable nation.’ In the words of George Kenney, a Yugoslav desk officer at the US State Department, “no place remained for a large independent-minded socialist state that resisted globalization.”

Germany actively supported and encouraged the secession of Slovenia and Croatia from the Yugoslav Federation. The creation of an ‘independent’ Bosnia was more of a US project. The US backed the separatist Alija Izetbegovic and effectively sabotaged a peaceful solution to the Bosnian question when Ambassador Warren Zimmerman persuaded Izetbegovic to renege on his signing of the EU-sponsored Lisbon Accord in 1992. Zimmerman, as I have noted previously, effectively lit the touch paper for a brutal war in which around 100,000 people are thought to have lost their lives. In place of one strong Yugoslav state, there are now a number of small, economically-weak states in the Balkans. This suits the US, with its imperial strategy of Divide et Imperia, just fine, but is clearly against the best interests of the people of the region.

The only way the problems of the Balkans can be solved is by going back in time. The gradual reconstruction of a multiethnic Yugoslav Federation – with full, guaranteed rights for all its citizens – and a friendship agreement being reached with Albania, which perhaps could be offered ‘associate’ membership, is the logical solution to the current divisions. Yugoslavia made sense in the 20th century and it makes just as much sense today. Only don’t expect the CFR, for all its concerns about ‘flash points’ in the Balkans, to recommend it.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

 

Macedonia 2018: All Eyes Focus on ‘Name’ Agreement (BIRN, by Sinisa Jakov Marusic, 12 January 2018)

 

After a year of turbulence, there are hopes of breakthrough this year in Macedonia’s stalled NATO and EU accession bids, provided a compromise is finally reached on the long-standing ‘name’ dispute.

Still fresh out of a crippling political crisis, only resolved in mid-2017, Macedonia has little time for a breathing space if it wishes to seize the favourable international momentum for a breakthrough in its Euro-Atlantic aspirations. To achieve that, Macedonia’s ambitious new government will first need to turn an old political adversary, neighbouring Greece, into a friend that no longer blocks its accession into NATO and the EU over the unresolved dispute over its name. This is easier said than done. The recent build-up of optimism in Athens and Skopje, and the encouragement coming from Washington and Brussels, have yet to translate into a concrete UN-sponsored deal. Domestically, the Social Democrat-led government will be hard at work fulfilling the long overdue set of EU-sought reforms that aim to democratize Macedonia’s key institutions in areas like the judiciary, the secret services and the public administration. Reaching a deal with Greece and convincing the domestic public to support it, and the EU-sought reforms, will to some extent depend also on the cooperation of the right-wing opposition VMRO DPMNE party. In the past, this party played hardball on the name issue, rejected compromises and frequently clashed with Western diplomats who tried to broker a deal. Now faced with its own fall from grace and experiencing internal power struggles after losing control of the government, VMRO DPMNE and its new leader, Hristijan Mickoski, will have to chose whether to continue acting as spoilers on the “name” issue or act more positively. Political analyst professor at the South East European University in Tetovo, Besa Arifi said Macedonia this year must hurry to catch “probably the last train for the EU and NATO.” “This will be a key year that we will have to use well. Politicians but also society as a whole will have to be sure not to miss these opportunities that we have been given once more,” Arifi said.

 

Focus lies on ancient ‘name’ dispute:

Macedonia can only hope for a breakthrough in NATO and EU talks this year if it reaches a deal with Greece over its name. The dispute centres on Greece’s insistence that use of the word “Macedonia” implies a territorial claim to the northern Greek province of the same name.

As a result, in 2008, Greece blocked Macedonia’s entry to NATO and has also continued blocking the start of Macedonia’s EU accession talks, despite several positive annual reports from the European Commission on the country’s progress. During his seven months in power, Macedonia’s new Prime Minister, Zoran Zaev, has managed to greatly improve relations with Greece, making a sharp turn away from previous governments’ defiant and often provocative moves. In one of his latest interviews, Zaev told Greek Alfa TV this week that he was hopeful that “with good will”, which he now sees in Athens, a deal could be reached within the first half of this year. His Greek counterpart, Alexis Tzipras, recently sounded equally optimistic about a compromise in this two-and-a-half decade-old feud. As a result of the rekindled enthusiasm, the UN mediator in the talks, Matthew Nimetz, last December renewed bilateral talks that had been frozen for three years. But the hard part of negotiating an actual compromise name is yet to come, as Nimetz sets up an agenda of frequent meetings for the first few months of 2018. Talks are planned to kick off on January 17. Possible name solutions involve using some forms of the adjectives “Upper”, “Northern” or “New” in front of the term “Macedonia”. But these lie only in the realm of speculation. However, most analysts agree that a possible compromise can only emerge if both sides make concessions. They believe it is possible Greece may give up on its insistence that Macedonia completely remove the term “Macedonia” from its name and, in return, Macedonia would scrap one of its own “red lines” – by agreeing on full international, rather than purely bilateral, use of the new compound name. “The atmosphere [for a compromise] is better than it has been for the past 10 or more years,” Ioannis Armakolas, professor at the University of Macedonia, in Thessaloniki, told Macedonia’s MIA news Agency this week. But he cautioned against being overly optimistic, as the problem has many layers that he insisted are very hard to solve. “It takes coordination from the international community, good will from all sides, good will from the [political] opposition in both countries… [a strategy] on how to present the solution before the public, and what would be the details of the agreement,” Armakolas explained. If the talks succeed, however, and if Macedonia in the meantime convinces Brussels that its internal reforms are going as planned, the next steps are more predictable. With Greece on board, Macedonia could join NATO at the next summit of the alliance this July in Brussels. Around the same time, it could also finally start EU accession talks, following a renewed recommendation from the European Commission. Additional optimism about a solution arises from the fact that Washington and Brussels have made clear their wish to see a settlement this year. Both want the West to strengthen its foothold in the Balkans vis-à-vis Russia’s increased influence in the region. If this does not happen, the opportunity for a historic compromise may well be lost, as both countries enter election cycles in 2019. This would likely divert attention and energy in both countries from this highly sensitive issue.

Search for a national consensus:
Faced with a historic national decision over the country’s name and over its EU and NATO future, Prime Minister Zaev has called the right-wing VMRO DPMNE party to play a more constructive role in the reform process, and in building a national consensus over a possible name settlement. The year to come will show whether the new VMRO DPMNE leader, Hristijan Mickoski, who succeeded former prime minister Nikola Gruevski in December, is willing or able to respond. The end of 2017 spelled disaster for VMRO DPMNE. After a prolonged political crisis that saw the party alienated from the West as well as from much of its own population, VMRO DPMNE lost control of government to the Social Democrats in May. The party suffered another shattering defeat in the October local elections. These defeats then ended the political career of the party’s long-standing leader, Gruevski, who had consistently denied accusations of wrongdoings, had accused his opponents of treason – especially related to the issue of the unresolved name dispute – and had accused the West of interfering in his country’s internal issues. It is now up to Mickoski to set the party’s future course, a task made more difficult by the fact that he faces internal discord, accusations by some party veterans of being Gruevski’s puppet, as well as ongoing investigations and trials against many former high-ranking party members, including Gruevski himself. The party’s initial responses offer little space for optimism. Despite some hopes to the contrary, VMRO DPMNE officials on Tuesday said they would not end their informal boycott of the parliament, possibly jeopardizing the speedy adoption of several key EU-sought bills. The party started ignoring parliamentary sessions in November after police arrested several of their MPs over last April’s violence in parliament, when a mob broke in and injured some 100 people. Facing terrorism charges, the MPs are still in detention and under house arrest. Regarding the country’s future, Mickoski, in his first interview for the national broadcaster, MRTV, said the party’s priorities remain joining NATO and the EU. But he conditioned his party’s cooperation with the government in connection to key national issues with the release of those arrested for participation in the April 27 rampage. Observers fear the opposition, although weakened, could radicalize its actions this year as the courts continue processing several criminal cases against VMRO DPMNE officials, mostly instigated by the Special Prosecution, formed in 2015 as part of the EU-sponsored crisis agreement between the political parties. “Mickoski will not have much time to make decisions,” said political analyst Petar Arsovski “A key indicator will be his reaction if Gruevski is arrested. Will he then instigate street protests?”

Hopes grow for economic recovery:
Political uncertainty during much of 2017 took its toll on the country’s economy. Macedonia ended 2017 with a disappointing economic growth rate of just under 1 per cent. In its first seven months in office, the new government has managed only to prepare a new strategy for economic growth, after discussing it with experts and economic chambers. Its effects are yet to be seen. The government has promised equal and transparent conditions for foreign and home investors alike, however, when it comes to government subsidies for businesses and new employments.

This was one of the main concerns of domestic companies regarding the practices of past VMRO DPMNE-led governments who often made deals for subsidies with foreign investors away from public eye. The new administration hopes that calmer political waters and its new economic policies will lead to projected growth of 3.2 per cent. Presenting the strategy, Zaev insisted that the projected target is achievable and realistic. He did not hide his hope of an additional positive economic upturn, however, should the country solve the name dispute and join NATO this year – adding that investors were likely to be swayed by evidence of the country’s political predictability.