LOCAL PRESS

 

Dacic: Dayton 2 for Kosovo (Srpski Telegraf/Tanjug)

 

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic has told Srpski Telegraf that a solution of the Kosovo knot could be reached at some international conference. Dacic notes that a solution could be a so-called Dayton 2, i.e. a solution after a delineation model at a large international conference that should be held before May 2019, when the European Commission’s mandate expires. “The prerequisite for something like that is for the stands of the two sides to draw closer,” said Dacic, adding that presently the stands of the two sides are significantly far away. He says that delineation with the Albanians is the only issue of borders that would be on the agenda in case of a new Dayton.

 

Mogherini: Chance of reaching agreement within months is realistic (Beta)

 

There is a realistic chance of a comprehensive, legally binding agreement on the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia in the coming months, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini said this on Monday, Beta is reporting. “I believe there is a realistic chance that Presidents Vucic and Thaci could reach an agreement on all open issues between Belgrade and Pristina, a comprehensive, legally binding agreement on the normalization of relations between the two sides, an agreement in full compliance with international law, which can contribute to the stabilization of the entire region,” Mogherini said in a speech to EU ambassadors in Brussels.

She said the EU had to continue its work in the Balkans and with the Balkans, with determination, persistence and stubbornness, adding that the last year was incredibly intensive, and that the coming months will be even more decisive. “Let me play with the dates, as next year, in 2019, it will be 20 years since the war in Kosovo. I believe it's time to end the conflict. I believe that we need to do everything we can with partners in Europe, the region and on the international scene, starting with the UN Security Council, to support the talks through dialogue, and within the international community,” Mogherini said. She recalled that Athens and Skopje had reached an agreement before summer, and that a referendum on the agreement would take place in a few weeks, adding that the next year will be a dynamic year for the preparations for the opening of accession talks for Macedonia and Albania. “These opportunities have to be used now this year is the year. It's not about a concession, it is in the interest of all European citizens, both within the EU and outside the EU. It is very clear in the Balkans today that the EU is the reference point. Allow me to say to everyone fearing that other forces are becoming increasingly present in the region whenever we are present, there is no room for others,” Mogherini added.

 

Community of Serb Municipalities could be part of the final agreement (Tanjug)

 

Defining a common ground for a future legally binding agreement on the comprehensive normalization of Belgrade-Pristina relations will be the fundamental topic of the 7 September 7 meeting between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo President Hashim Thaci in Brussels, Tanjug learns. Tanjug also reported that, unofficially, the possibility is not excluded for the elements of the agreement on the Community of Serb Municipalities to be a part of the final agreement. For the time being, in the EU they do not want to predict which elements the final agreement could contain. Spokesperson of the European Commission Maja Kocijancic said, concerning the announcement of a new meeting between Vucic and Thaci, that the question of the forming of the Community of Serb Municipalities could also finds itself on the debating table in Brussels. She said that the EU representatives would, as soon as the Management team officially informs them of the work on the draft statute of this association, transfer this to the level of the next meeting on a high political level.

 

Joint letter of Serbian Orthodox congregations and organizations in the US to senators, members of Congress and administration officials (NSPM/KosSev)

 

“As leaders of the Serbian Orthodox congregations and Serbian-American organizations from throughout the United States, we are writing to appeal for the protection of the security, human rights and religious freedom of the Serbian population in Kosovo and Metohija, and to express our strong opposition to the proposed ethnic partition of the territory. For nineteen years now, the Serbian people in Kosovo and Metohija have been systematically deprived of their most basic human rights—including the right to worship freely, the right to use their own property, and even the right to visit the homes and churches from which they were forced to flee.  We are disturbed that after years of dialogue, and after commitments from the authorities in Pristina to implement standards for the protection of Serbs consistent with EU and international human rights norms, Kosovo Serbs continue to face discrimination, threats of violence, assaults to their basic human dignity and existence, and a general disregard by the authorities for the rule of law. In this context, we resolutely oppose the proposed territorial partition of Kosovo and Metohija which would result—as all historic partitions have done—in a mass exodus and internal displacement of people. This scenario would also leave our most important churches, monasteries and holy sites exposed and vulnerable—devoid of basic 21st century legal and institutional safeguards—and is inconsistent with UNSCR 1244 and the Message of the Assembly of Bishops of the Serbian Orthodox Church on Kosovo of May 13th, 2018. For centuries, the Serbian Orthodox Church has shared the fate of the Christian population in Kosovo and Metohija, promoting peace, reconciliation and the dignity of every individual as a unique person created in God’s likeness and image.  We feel that, at a minimum, this voice of the Church also deserves to be heard by officials and policymakers as they deliberate vital issues that will affect its life,” it is stated on the website serborth.org.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Pacolli not to attend informal meeting in Banja Luka; Dodik: Pacolli is not welcome in Banja Luka (BHT1)

 

The informal meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs from member states of the South-East European Cooperation Process (SEECP) scheduled for Wednesday in Banja Luka will not be postponed. This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Igor Crnadak, who reacted to the statement made by President Milorad Dodik who said that Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kosovo Beghjet Pacolli is not welcome in Banja Luka. ˝Representatives of Pristina participate in regional meetings exclusively according to the agreement between Belgrade and Pristina within the Brussels talks and only with the full approval by Belgrade˝ Crnadak said. Dodik underlined that Republika Srpska (RS) did not give consent to B&H to recognize self-proclaimed Kosovo. “Consequently, the Minister of that fake country cannot be welcome to the RS.  The decision of Crnadak to invite Pacolli to the RS is recognized as provocation he was talked into by his foreign mentors and his mentor Mladen Ivanic. Maybe Pacolli is the best evidence of how Crnadak has been performing the duty of the Minister,” explained Dodik. SNSD’s MP in B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Milica Markovic stated that in her opinion Turkey requested primarily Chairman of B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic to invite Pacolli to the abovementioned meeting “and then Izetbegovic forwarded this task to Ivanic and Crnadak.” Markovic emphasized that this is another example of treachery of the RS carried out by PDP and SDS – the party that supports PDP’s activities.

Head of SNSD Caucus in B&H HoR Stasa Kosarac underlined that once again the Alliance for Changes (SzP) ignored stances of the RS, underlining that representatives of the RS cannot enter any type of relations with self-proclaimed Kosovo. He went on to say that the RS cannot be “a polygon for development of some pro-Bosnian politics” as Izetbegovic – and Ivanic in this case - want it to be. Later, Pacolli stated that he has decided to cancel his visit to Banja Luka because of the threats he and his delegation received. “Because of created obstacles and threats issued against me and my delegation by President of B&H entity of RS Milorad Dodik, I have decided to cancel my trip to Banja Luka” and pointed out that Dodik represents a great problem for everyone in the Western Balkans.

 

OHR: Entities do not have right to secession and exist on ground of Constitution of B&H (N1)

 

Following numerous statements regarding changes of borders in the Balkans, statements on independence of RS and its merging with Serbia, the Office of High Representative (OHR) issued a statement reading that entities do not have right to secession and they exist only on the ground of the B&H Constitution. RS President Milorad Dodik stated recently that the RS will achieve its independence during the next presidential term of Donald Trump. In their reaction to this and similar statements, the OHR said that the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) represents a document all signatories must respect as the highest legal act, especially B&H. The OHR’s statement reads that sovereignty and territorial integrity of B&H is guaranteed by the DPA, the Constitution of B&H and the international law. It further reads that according the DPA, entities do not have right to secession and they exist exclusively on the ground of B&H Constitution.

 

B&H HoR to discuss request for Mektic's removal on Tuesday (RTRS)

 

At its session scheduled for Tuesday, B&H House of Representatives (HoR) should discuss the initiative of SNSD and DNS to remove B&H Minister of Security Dragan Mektic. Talking about the abovementioned initiative, Head of SNSD Caucus in B&H HoR Stasa Kosarac said that Mektic’s behavior has been detrimental for security situation in B&H and for interests of RS. Kosarac added that over last four years Mektic has been working against official stances of the RS. DNS’ Borislav Bojic reminded that some two or three years ago Mektic had been claiming that B&H is not interesting for anyone, including refugees and migrants and that if this happens B&H is prepared for such situation. Bojic added that recent developments denied Mektic’s claims. Also, HDZ B&H will support the initiative regarding the removal of Mektic. Head of HDZ B&H’s Caucus in B&H HoR Nikola Lovrinovic stated that he wishes this initiative had been submitted earlier. SDA expresses support to Mektic, while SBB B&H is yet to decide whether they will support the abovementioned initiative. DF’s Damir Becirovic underlined that it would be much better if the removal of Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Crnadak was requested. Becirovic explained that Crnadak did more things detrimental for B&H than Mektic. SDS’ Aleksandra Pandurevic said that Mektic will not be removed.

 

B&H HoP’s CLAC defines proposal of amendments to Law on Criminal Procedure of B&H (FTV)

 

The Constitutional Legal Affairs Commission (CLAC) of the B&H House of Peoples (B&H HoP) held a session in Sarajevo on Monday and defined the proposal of amendments to the Law on Criminal Procedure of B&H. The presenter reminded that adoption of the amendment was ordered by the Constitutional Court of B&H (B&H CC), while the international community insisted on the amendments that will be in line with the European standards. The CLAC adopted the proposal of the amendments submitted by President of the Bosniak Caucus in the B&H HoP Halid Genjac (SDA), but the CLAC also adopted amendments to Genjac’s proposal submitted by the Croat Caucus. Members of the CLAC agreed that defined amendments, which are identical to those submitted by the Serb Caucus, will improve quality of the Law on Criminal Procedure but they will also define norms and deadlines more clearly. Members of the CLAC also agreed that the defined amendments will help B&H judiciary to preserve its capacity and integrity in the battle against crime. Genjac explained that the B&H HoP and the B&H HoR could both hold sessions on the same day and adopt the amendments in urgent procedure. Genjac said that the amendments could be adopted in both Houses by next Tuesday. Deputy speaker of the B&H HoP Barisa Colak (HDZ B&H) confirmed that the defined amendments will be submitted to urgent procedure, which is the fastest procedure and everything else will lead to additional adjustments and sessions. B&H HoP delegate Dragutin Rodic (DNS) claims that he previously conducted comparative analyses and came to the conclusion that it is possible to overcome all differences and disagreements regarding the amendments. According to the reporter, the B&H HoP and the B&H House of Representatives (B&H HoR) are both expected to adopt defined amendments, as well as to discuss the amendments submitted by the Serb Caucus at their next sessions. The reporter argued that B&H politicians wasted a year disagreeing over relatively insignificant provisions and risked collapse of the judiciary which was prevented by the B&H CC’s decision not to suspend disputable provisions of the Law on Criminal Procedure. The reporter noted that it is good that B&H politicians managed to resolve one of many important issues before the 2018 general elections, regardless if this was the result of their agreement or pressure to find a solution in line with the European standards.

 

Retrial in case of Oric and Muhic starts before Appellate Division of Court of B&H; B&H Prosecutor Janjic receives death threats (BNTV)

 

Prosecutor Miroslav Janjic stated on Monday that he and his family received death threats from a witness in a previous trial in the Naser Oric case. Janjic has said that they received death threats in writing some twenty days ago, and he informed the B&H Prosecutor’s Office and the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) of B&H about it, adding that he expects them to undertake concrete activities. He says that he has never received direct threats before. A retrial of the commander of the Army of B&H in Srebrenica, Naser Oric, and his associate Sabahudin Muhic for crimes committed against Serbs in the areas of Srebrenica and Bratunac in 1992 commenced on Monday before the Appellate Chamber of the Court of B&H. The Prosecutor’s Office of B&H in the retrial is again represented by prosecutor Miroslav Janjic. In October 2017 Oric and Muhic were acquitted of killing three Serb prisoners at the start of the war. The ruling was overturned in June for procedural reasons. Janjic asked the Appellate Chamber that all evidence presented by the witnesses in this case be re-examined, but the Appellate Chamber rejected this motion on the grounds that it was not the practice of the Court and that all the evidence has been examined and the witnesses already heard. Only evidence from Radivoje Ostojic and a protected witness known as ‘O1’ are to be re-heard, because in these two cases the criminal proceedings were violated due to an improper presentation of the evidence. A new hearing is scheduled for September 17, when Ostojic will be heard, and on September 24, a hearing will be held for the protected witness ‘O1’.

 

‘Quick Response 2018’ begins in Butmir (N1)

 

Three-day military exercise ‘Quick Response 2018’ commenced on Monday. Participants of this exercise gathered in military base Butmir near Sarajevo on Monday. Besides members of law enforcement agencies in B&H and B&H Armed Forces, members of EUFOR forces in B&H and soldiers from Austria, Bulgaria, Italy Romania and the UK will take part in this exercise. One reserve battalion of NATO forces in Kosovo will also participate in the abovementioned exercise. This exercise will be carried out in the areas of the International Airport Sarajevo, Pazaric, Kalinovik, Dubrave (Tuzla), Mrkonjic Grad and Brcko District. EUFOR Commander Major General Martin Dorfer said that this will be the biggest in series of exercises that will be carried out in 2018. Dorfer added that the goal of this exercise is to enable B&H law enforcement agencies, B&H AF and EUFOR to practice their respective contingency plans and improve their capability to provide support to each other. B&H Minister of Defense Marina Pendes underlined that this exercise is excellent opportunity to demonstrate and test operational capabilities of members of B&H AF participating in this exercise. She stressed that security threats B&H and countries in the region have been facing create the need for better and closer cooperation of all relevant factors in security-defense sector. Pendes said that the exercise will provide the necessary tools to support B&H aspirations towards full membership in the EU and NATO.

 

Croatian Navy vessel joins NATO operation in Mediterranean (Hina)

 

The Croatian Navy missile boat Vukovar sailed out from the southern naval port of Lora at Split on Monday to join NATO's Operation Sea Guardian in the Mediterranean. The Vukovar has 32 crew members and a commander and will participate in the maritime security operation from September 5 to 21. It is the first Croatian vessel to join this mission. It will carry out non-combat tasks, including maintaining maritime situational awareness, deterring security threats and providing support to NATO's strategic communications. Addressing the send-off ceremony, Defense Minister Damir Krsticevic said: "We are aware that the security of NATO and Croatia is defended not only at Croatian borders but also in places where threats emerge." He noted that no country could cope with contemporary security challenges on its own. The Chief of Staff of the Croatian Armed Forces, General Mirko Sundov, said that by participating in this operation, Croatia will once again show that it is always ready to strengthen relations and cooperation with its partners and neighbors.

 

Zaev-Page: All political stakeholders to put Macedonia’s interests as priority at upcoming referendum (MIA)

 

The Western Balkans is entering a new, positive phase, thanking mainly to the accomplishments of Macedonia, which should now make efforts to move forward to the EU, NATO membership, Director of the British Foreign Office Western Balkans Department, Andrew Page said Monday in Skopje at a meeting with Prime Minister Zoran Zaev. Zaev and Page agreed that everybody in Macedonia bore responsibility for the success of the 30 September referendum on the country’s future, the government said in a press release.

“I am certain that vast majority of citizens will turn out to vote for Macedonia’s accession to the European Union and NATO. But it is also rather important for all political stakeholders to put the state above personal, party interests, which means to come out and cast their vote” Zaev said.

Zaev and Page also shared opinions on current developments related to the regions’ stability, security and economic prosperity, the press release reads.

 

Dimitrov: Upcoming referendum will be successful (MIA)

 

I am certain that the upcoming referendum is going to be successful, as citizens of Macedonia always make wise decisions when their country is on a crossroad, Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov said Monday at a roundtable, dubbed ‘Euro-Atlantic Future for Macedonia.

‘We have decided to bravely, sincerely deal with the problems and hence managed to settle a dispute that kept the country behind for about three decades and to open the doors to the future. At stake now is our stability, security, welfare and access to the best available reform instrument – the EU accession talks. The solution is here and it is up to all of us as citizens to choose from moving forward to the future and integration or backwards to isolation. There is no alternative to the road ahead,’ Dimitrov said. He once again notified that the name deal with Greece preserved the Macedonian identity and language. Asked to comment the opposition’s reluctance to present its stance on the referendum, Dimitrov said ‘historic decisions call for honesty and responsibility.’

 

Xhaferi meets Head of OSCE/ODIHR referendum observation mission Petersen (MIA)

 

OSCE/ODIHR mission for observing the 30 September referendum in Macedonia will consist of a core team of 13 experts, 20 long-term and 250 short-term observers, Head of the mission Jan Petersen said Monday at a meeting with Parliament Speaker Talat Xhaferi. The OSCE/ODIHR referendum observation mission (ROM) will assess the referendum for its compliance with OSCE commitments and other international obligations and standards, as well as with national legislation, Petersen said. He notified that the observers would closely monitor voter registration, campaign activities, the work of the referendum administration and relevant government bodies, referendum-related legislation and its implementation, and the resolution of referendum-related disputes. As part of the observation, the mission will also monitor the media coverage of the campaign, Petersen said. Xhaferi commended the OSCE decision to send a mission for observing the referendum, saying that Macedonia highly appreciates the OSCE/ODIHR role in many election processes in the country, the Speaker’s Office said in a press release. Many of the recommendations of the OSCE/ODIHR reports on previous election process in Macedonia have been incorporated in the country’s Electoral Code, Xhaferi said. He also referred to the activities of the Parliament related to the upcoming referendum.

 

Mogherini: Opportunities for opening EU accession talks to be seized now (MIA)

 

The next year will be intense one for preparations towards the opening of accession negotiations both with Macedonia and Albania, EU’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said Monday in her speech at the annual EU Ambassadors Conference 2018. ‘Let me say very clearly: these opportunities have to be taken now – this year is the year. It is not a concession we make: it is in the interest of the European citizens, both inside and outside of the European Union,’ Mogherini said. She also notified that just before the summer ‘we celebrated together the agreement between Athens and Skopje, and in just a few weeks' time there will be a referendum on it, in what I hope will become the Republic of North Macedonia.’ ‘In the Balkans, it is today very clear that the European Union is the point of reference. And let me say to all those that fear other powers being more and more present in the region: whenever we are present in the region, there is no space for others,’ Mogherini said.

 

Dimitrov-Scherbak: EU-, NATO-oriented Macedonia wants strong relations with Russia (MIA)

 

Minister of Foreign Affairs Nikola Dimitrov held Monday a farewell meeting with the Russian Ambassador to Macedonia, Oleg Scherbak, as he is concluding his diplomatic mission to Skopje. Minister Dimitrov expressed hope that relations between the two countries in the future would be developed in the spirit of traditional friendship and mutual respect, the MoFA said.

While being committed to Euro-Atlantic integration, the Republic of Macedonia is also focused on developing relations with the Russian Federation and is prepared to bolster cooperation in all areas of mutual interest, he noted.  Dimitrov wished Scherbak success in his future activities, stated the press release.

 

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

 

Hahn: We should leave Serbia and Kosovo to discuss the issue of territory (European Western Balkans/RFE, 4 September 2018)

 

BRUSSELS – Every solution to the bilateral conflict should contribute to the wider stability of the region, said EU Commissioner for Neigbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn in an interview for Radio Free Europe. Asked about his position towards the exchange of territories, he said that it should be left to Serbia and Kosovo to discuss it, as long as the final solution contributes to the stability and development of the region. “I think it is too early to talk about it. They are still negotiating. Some ideas have come up, let us just say that”, he answered to a question about potential consequences on Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, he added that both sides are aware of international limitations, which, despite that, leave enough space for many possible solutions. “It would be useful if the process is concluded by the summer of next year, so that we could continue with further steps”, concluded Hahn.

 

Western Balkans: Dateless accession perspective (EURACTIV, by Herbert Vytiska, 3 September 2018)

 

The inclusion of the Western Balkans in the European Union remains in focus. The timing of the bloc’s expansion, however, is more than uncertain. EURACTIV Germany reports from Vienna.

In the course of the EU’s accession negotiations with Austria 25 years ago, the government in Vienna was expected to use its traditionally good and historical ties with the countries of southeastern Europe to introduce them to Europe. The current Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl are also trying to fulfil this mandate within the framework of the country’s Council Presidency. Therefore, representatives of the Western Balkan countries were invited to the foreign ministers meeting, which took place in Vienna last week. The Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also showed up for the usual family photo. Despite all the problems and no progress in the chapters currently under consideration, Turkey is still a candidate for EU membership. And despite the country’s economic problems, its conflicts with the US, Ankara is clearly trying to improve the basis for talks with the EU. Cavusoglu even spoke of Ankara’s willingness to re-launch negotiations with Brussels.

 

Catching up process for Serbia & Co.

EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, made a clear statement: “The Western Balkans are traditionally seen as an unstable region where the EU has been seeking security for years and decades. The Austrian Presidency makes a remarkable contribution to keeping the Western Balkans at the top of the EU agenda.” There is unity now in the EU for all Western Balkan states from Serbia to Albania to ultimately become part of the Union. However, those countries also have to do a lot of catching up in terms of the rule of law and the fight against corruption.

A concrete date for accession is still a long way off. Only with Serbia and Montenegro, is there a theoretical possibility to join the Club in 2025. Crucial to this will be the resolution of the conflict between Belgrade and Pristina. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his Kosovo counterpart Hashim Thaçi are currently intensively negotiating a settlement of the border, tentatively eyeing an exchange of land and thus a new demarcation. However, this has been met with great scepticism at the foreign ministers’ conference. Not least because they fear that something like that could provoke a political storm and cause restlessness elsewhere.

 

“Ridiculous to talk about borders these days”

Thus, Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn emphasised once again that any solution in the Balkans must take into account the “overriding interest” in promoting stability in the region. Moreover, apart from the border question, there are still “many other aspects” to be discussed between Belgrade and Pristina anyway. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas seconded: “We believe that can open up too many old wounds in the population and therefore we are very sceptical.” This opinion is also shared by Finland and Luxembourg. Kneissl played her cards close to her chest, but only in general held that border changes, as has been seen time and again in the past, “pose problems”. At home in Kosovo, Thaçi is facing scepticism. His foreign minister, Behgjet Pacolli, said: “It’s ridiculous for me to talk about borders nowadays.”

However, the issue remains on the agenda – the Austrian foreign minister announced – Vučić and Thaçi will meet in Brussels on 7 September as part of the EU-sponsored normalisation dialogue. Two days later, Vučić is due to deliver an eagerly awaited speech to the Serbs in northern Kosovo on this issue.

 

Kosovo-Serbia land swap could send whole region into turmoil (RT, 4 September 2018)

 

A land swap between Kosovo and Serbia could trigger a chain reaction in the Balkans, spelling the end for a number of former Yugoslav countries – and give a new reason for the US to keep troops in Europe, analysts have told RT. The idea of land swap between Serbia and Kosovo along "ethnic lines" resurfaced this summer, reportedly floated first by Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic. While not discussed officially, such plan would likely include Kosovo giving up Serb-dominated northern parts of the region in exchange for territory in southern Serbia in the Albanian-dominated Presevo Valley. Kosovo leader Hashim Thaci did not rule out possibility of such talks, describing the potential land swap as a "correction" of the border with Serbia. He firmly rejected the idea of partitioning Kosovo over any "ethnic lines," promising to present his Serbian counterpart with his plan early in September, when the two leaders are set to meet. Such talks are needed for Kosovo to solve the outstanding issues with Serbia and move on towards its goals of NATO and EU memberships, according to Thaci. He, however, did not reveal what Serbia would get in return, apart from the vague prospect of a "European future." "Definitely now is the moment to correct the border between Kosovo and Serbia, which is around 400 kilometers (250 miles) long," Thaci told Reuters in an interview in mid-August. "Correcting borders will definitely avoid Kosovo's partition, swapping territories, more crises or problems or even possibly a new war." Kosovo broke away from Serbia in 1999 with help of the NATO bombing campaign and unilaterally declared independence in 2008. The move was not recognized by Serbia and a number of other countries, including Russia, which regard it as a breakaway region. Kosovo and Serbia made steps to normalize relations, signing the Brussels Agreement in 2013, yet little has been actually achieved.

 

How likely is a land swap?

The very idea of land swap caused a storm of criticism both in Serbia and Kosovo. Should Vucic and Thaci actually manage to pull it off it would "be quite an achievement," given long-standing tensions persisting in the region, author and Russia analyst Martin McCauley believes, yet such scenario is not very likely. Simply giving up contested lands to Kosovo is even less likely, as Serbia's Vucic has faced strong backlash in his country over making any sort of deal with Kosovo Albanians. "Vucic is faced with great opposition in Serbia itself – the Serbian Orthodox Church has come out firmly against recognition or division of Kosovo in any shape or form. All public polls show that the majority of Serbs are against either recognition of Kosovo or partition of Kosovo," political analyst Aleksandar Pavic told RT. In Kosovo, Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj became one of the most vocal critics of the land swap idea, calling the very discussion of it "an invitation for new tragedies in the Balkans." "If we reopen what has already been agreed, it means re-opening the past, and in our region reopening the past means reopening wars. All these borders are the result of tragic wars," Haradinaj told the Irish Times. He then made a trendy jab at Russia, saying that only President Vladimir Putin would somehow benefit from a new conflict in the Balkans. In reality, however, Russia, has already clearly stated that its position on the Kosovo issue remains unchanged and that it would accept any solution supported by the people of Serbia. Russia's Foreign Ministry urged all the parties to abide by international law and stick to already adopted UN resolutions.

 

US backs a 'satisfactory settlement'… to suit its own interests?

Washington has shown apparent support for the idea of a land swap. National Security Advisor John Bolton stated that the US would not oppose a "mutually satisfactory settlement" between Belgrade and Pristina, including possible territorial changes. "Our policy, the US policy, is that if the two parties can work it out between themselves and reach agreement, we don't exclude territorial adjustments," Bolton said back on August 24. "We would not stand in the way, and I don't think anybody in Europe would stand in the way if the two parties to the dispute reached a mutually satisfactory settlement," he added. Any agreement of such sort might indeed be "satisfactory," but only for the US itself, as it would fuel tensions in the region and open prospects for new armed conflicts, political analyst John Bosnitch warned. "There's no doubt that it serves American interests in Europe when there's instability on European continent, that Germany and other EU states are unable to control without the American muscle," Bosnitch told RT. US support for the land swap idea might also come from the lack of understanding of the situation in the Balkans, which proved to be the most explosive region of Europe for over a century. And the past US actions in the region proved to be quite counterproductive, author and Russia analyst Martin McCauley told RT. "The United States hasn't played a major role in the Balkans. The United States has traditionally found the Balkans to be very difficult to understand," McCauley said. "The United States has a role to play here but its record is not particularly good, because they have had difficulty in thoughtfully understanding the area."

 

EU not so sure

In spite of Bolton's certainty, not all EU countries appear to be on board. Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn warned about "very negative consequences" such deal might produce, with his Finnish counterpart Timo Soini calling it "risky." "We believe that this can tear open too many old wounds in the population and so we are very skeptical," German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Friday. If such land swap actually took place, it is likely to trigger a chain reaction in the region, with ethno-religious minorities in neighboring countries demanding autonomies and ultimately secession, McCauley warned. Such course of events is particularly dangerous for Bosnia and Macedonia, which have large ethnic and religious minorities.

"If a land swap does take place between the Serbs and the Albanians it will set an immediate precedent for a land swap in Bosnia, that will probably lead to the departure of the Serbian part to join Serbia and to separation of the country into two pieces," Bosnitch said. "And in the case of Macedonia, it will result in a situation in which the Albanians would demand to leave Macedonia. And the Albanians have assertive majority control over more than the half of Macedonia in the area bordering Kosovo."