Belgrade DMH 061113

LOCAL PRESS

Ban welcomed elections in Kosovo, condemned violence (Tanjug/Beta)

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon welcomed the local elections in Kosovo, and condemned attacks at polling stations in the northern part of Kosovska Mitrovica. Ban welcomed Kosovo citizens’ active participation in the elections, which are, as he said, a key element of the implementation of the agreement Belgrade and Pristina reached on 19 April. He demanded an immediate investigation into attacks in northern Kosovska Mitrovica during the elections, condemning any attempt to undermine the electoral process and fundamental rights of people to express their democratic will. Ban urged all parties to ensure the smooth completion of the electoral process.

Dacic: Serbia expects positive decision in December (RTS)

Serbia expects the European Council to make a positive decision in December that would significantly encourage all reforms and renewal of the country, Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dacic stated after last night’s meeting with Danish Minister for Trade and Europe Nick Hækkerup. A positive decision in December would confirm the decision made in June to hold the first inter-governmental conference in January next year the latest, Dacic stated. He pointed that the two key priorities of the Serbian Government are the EU accession and the economic and financial consolidation. It is also important to resume the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and implement the Brussels agreement, Dacic said.

Belgrade demands new voting (Novosti)

The Central Election Commission of Kosovo (CIK) annulled last night the voting at three polling stations in northern Kosovska Mitrovica, this was confirmed by the CIK member Nenad Rikalo. He says that counting of votes from other polling stations in northern Kosovo will commence today and that this will be done in the presence of representatives of municipal election commissions and members of election committees. “Elections in the north have not passed regularly, in a fair and democratic atmosphere, and we will demand that voting is repeated at all places where citizens were intimidated and prevented to do so,” Serbian Prime Minister Ivica Dacic told Novosti. Rikalo says that after having insight into the material from three northern Kosovo municipalities they learned that some material lacks over which the CIK decided to examine the material in detail, open the boxes and determine, in the presence of municipal election commissions, election commissions, the exact state and then commence with the counting of votes. He says the situation in Zubin Potok is good, that there is not a single disputable station. “It is possible that voting is repeated in one or two-three stations in Leposavic and Zvecan,” says Rikalo. He says there is also ground for repeating elections in all stations in Kosovska Mitrovica since procedure of closing and packing election material was not respected in all other stations.

Samardzic: Selakovic cut Kosovo with scissors (Danas)

Yesterday’s debate on the set of judicial laws in the Serbian parliament was marked by a fierce polemic of the MPs of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and Serbian Justice Minister Nikola Selakovic on the occasion of the Minister’s claims that the issue of courts in Kosovo should be regulated with a special law that will be one of the constitutional laws that will define essential autonomy of Kosovo in Serbia and that he has been guided with the Constitution while proposing this solution. The DSS caucus whip Slobodan Samardzic asked where did the idea on a special law for part of the Serbian judicial system come from and whether the foundation should be looked for in the first agreement on normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, where it states that courts will be integrated into the Kosovo judicial system. “You have cut Kosovo from the organization of courts with scissors. Your story is a house on sand because a special law is not known to this constitutional system, except if at issue is not a special law on essential autonomy in Kosovo and Metohija. But, as I see, this special law doesn’t concern that special law, but some law that you are anticipating,” said Samardzic. Replying, the Justice Minister said the Law on essential autonomy can be one or several laws. It is passed in a manner envisaged for amending the Constitution and receives an attribute of a constitutional law and this is clear. When that law is passed, it will not be subject to constitutionality, it will become in fact an integral, but special, part of the Constitution that organizes the constitutional legal system in Serbia. Selakovic also rejected accusations that at issue is any sort of debasement of the state of Serbia, but that at issue is the resolution of an issue of key significance for Serbia that everybody in the past avoided, while the resolution is in a manner envisaged by the Constitution. The Minister also noted that everyone knows what an essential autonomy is, but that no one knows what exactly, because they interpret it differently.

Provisional Kosovo Assembly: Elections in north Kosovo according to Serbian laws (Beta)

The Provisional Kosovo Assembly, formed by the deputies of the local self-governments in northern Kosovo, has requested Serbian parliament speaker Nebojsa Stefanovic to slate local elections for these municipalities. These municipalities had been disbanded after a Serbian Government decision and then the Government appointed provisional councils that manage the local self-governments of Kosovska Mitrovica, Zvecan, Zubin Potok and Leposavic. The statement by the Kosovo Assembly, which the Serbian Government doesn’t recognize, notes that the parliament speaker is obliged to slate local elections according to Article 86. of the Law on Local Self-Government that says that he is obliged to do so up to two months after the disbanding of the local assembly. The Serbian Government disbanded the municipalities in northern Kosovo on 10 September. The Kosovo Assembly asserts in the statement that the Serbian parliament speaker would commit a criminal offense of abuse of office if he doesn’t slate elections.

REGIONAL PRESS

Sorensen visits Visoko (Dnevni Avaz)

The Head of the EU Delegation and the EU Special Representative in B&H Peter Sorensen has visited the municipality of Visoko and examined with the local authorities the ideas on development of this municipality. Sorensen said after the meeting with the Head of the Visoko municipality Amra Babic that the goal of this visit was to see challenges faced by the municipal authorities and to offer support to municipal development. “Visoko is a very well organized municipality that has good quality leadership. Its position should be used for development,” said Sorensen. Babic underlined the significance of the municipality and this region in the sense of the medieval statehood of the B&H state. She recalled that the municipality used in 2013 the EU funds for demining. “The B&H European path, the European path of local communities is our lasting determination and guarantee of peace, stability and prosperity in this region,” said Babic.

Covic: Severance of SNSD-SDS coalition will not influence Sejdic-Finci (Srna)

Deputy Presiding of the House of Peoples of the B&H Parliamentary Assembly Dragan Covic opines that the severance of the SNSD-SDS coalition at the B&H level will not hinder the agreement process in the implementation of the Sejdic-Finci ruling. “We must conduct talks among the parties in the B&H Federation in the next five to seven days, paying attention to the respect of principles that we signed in Brussels on 1 October,” Covic told journalists. He says that his support for the dismissal of Ognjen Tadic from the post of the Presiding of the House of Peoples has been one of the most difficult decisions that he had to make since he has been in politics. “However, difficult decisions must be made in B&H. I hope that the B&H authorities will do good things in the next year, until the elections,” said Covic. He also said that the draft law on amendments and supplements of the Law on residence of B&H citizens had been sent to the B&H Constitutional Court which is to decide whether this draft law is damaging for the vital national interest of Bosniaks. Covic told journalists that the commission that was in charge of this issue had not reached consent following the session of the House of Peoples, so it was decided to send this draft law to the B&H Constitutional Court to vote on merits.

Bulgaria, Serbia use FYROM only when angry (Dnevnik)

Bulgaria and Serbia use the abbreviation FYROM (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) only when they are angry, on all other occasions they call our country Macedonia, Dnevnik writes. According to the author of the article, Bulgarian Minister of Foreign Affairs Kristiyan Vigenin used the term FYROM on purpose while on a visit to Greek capital Athens. Dnevnik makes the remark that Vuk Jeremic, former Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs, also often uses FYROM instead of Macedonia, and that former Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader did the same at a Thessaloniki-held sitting aimed at aiding regional cooperation. “This is a threat, a sign that there is something wrong with Macedonia’s relations with these countries,” Dnevnik cites an unnamed Macedonian diplomat. He thinks that the usage of the term Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is not accidental and sees this as a warning that the countries using it are willing to take the side of Greece in the Macedonia name dispute. Such an attitude seems to be “political bargaining,” former Macedonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Milososki states for Dnevnik. “Albania will also try to gain benefits from Macedonia’s recognition under its constitutional name [Republic of Macedonia],” Milososki claims.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Kosovo to repeat vote in Serbian stronghold, challenging hardliners (Reuters, by Marko Djurica and Fatos Bytyci, 6 November 2013)

Authorities in Kosovo said on Wednesday they would repeat a municipal election in a small ethnic Serb stronghold, paving the way for a showdown with Serb hardliners opposed to EU-backed efforts to end the country's de facto ethnic partition.

The election for Kosovo's councils and mayors on Sunday was the first to be held across the entire territory of the young country, which has a majority ethnic Albanian population, but violence disrupted voting in the northern Serbian region.

Masked men broke into polling stations on the Serb side of the ethnically-divided town of Mitrovica, lobbing tear gas and smashing ballot boxes in a violent climax to days of open intimidation of would-be voters.

Florian Dushi, a member of Kosovo's Central Election Commission, told Reuters the election in mainly Serb north Mitrovica would be annulled.

"We decided to organise a new election, but we have not decided when," he said.

The decision came as the prime ministers of Serbia and its former Kosovo province met in Brussels to discuss how to move ahead with an April accord brokered by the European Union to integrate Kosovo's Serb north following the election.

The talks between EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, Serbia's Ivica Dacic and Kosovo's Hashim Thaci covered the "next steps in the electoral process and next steps in the implementation of the April Agreement," an EU spokeswoman said.

The election participation of the Serb north, which for years has been beyond the reach of Kosovo's authorities, was central to the EU pact to integrate the region in exchange for opening talks with Serbia on membership of the 28-nation bloc.

The accord foresees the north, home to some 40,000-50,000 ethnic Serbs, living fully under Kosovo law, ending years of limbo under a form of weak control from Belgrade.

Kosovo broke away from Serbia in 1999, when NATO bombed for 11 weeks to halt the killing and expulsion of Albanian civilians by Serbian forces trying to crush a guerrilla insurgency. It declared independence from Belgrade in 2008.

The replay of the municipal election will almost certainly require a more robust security operation involving EU and Kosovo police and a NATO peace force which numbers some 6,000 soldiers.

(Additional reporting by Brussels bureau; Writing by Matt Robinson, Editing by Gareth Jones) 

Voting In Mitrovica To Be Repeated (RFE/RL, 6 November 2013)

Kosovo's Central Election Commission says a municipal election will be repeated at three polling stations in the Serb-dominated north where it was disrupted by violence on November 3.
CEC member Nenad Rikalo told RFE/RL that voting materials from the polling stations in the town of Mitrovica were "totally unusable" after masked men stormed and ransacked the facilities. A date for the rerun will be announced on November 6.
Votes in three other Serb-dominated municipalities in the north are expected to be counted as valid.
Meantime, the prime ministers of Serbia and Kosovo, Ivica Dacic and Hashim Thaci, are meeting in Brussels with the EU's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, to discuss the elections and violence.
Serbia refuses to recognize Kosovo's 2008 independence but backed the election as part of a larger agreement that would put Serbia on a path to EU membership.

Election violence in Kosovo hits Serbs hardest (DW, 6 November 2013)

The elections in Kosovo were seen as a milestone. For the first time since independence, the Serb minority would take part. But violence overshadowed the polls - and few seem to know why.

It was supposed to have been the first elections in Kosovo's post-independence history that included the Serb minority in the north. But Serbs in that area are outspoken against the region's integration into the Albanian dominated country and never accepted independence in 2008.

For many years, those in today's northern Kosovo could count on the support of the Serbian government in Belgrade. This changed over the last few months. Newly elected leaders in Belgrade attempted to normalize relations with Kosovo's government in Pristina - all within the process of EU rapprochement.

Thus, the government in Kosovo had originally hoped to have Belgrade's support when integrating the north into the Kosovar state.

Voting booth attacks

The plan seems to have failed. After violent clashes and the destruction of ballot boxes in the divided city of Mitrvica in northern Kosovo, the validity of polls in that area has come under question.

The EU brokered a normalization treaty between Serbia and Kosovo

The culprits are still unknown. According to Serbian media reports, members and sympathizers of Obraz, a right-wing Serbian nationalist organization, took part in the disruption of the elections. There are also questions as to whether organized crime was involved.

"It's possible that thugs or smugglers who profit from the lack of the rule of law took part in it," said Andreas Ernst, a Balkan expert and foreign correspondent for the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" in Switzerland.

What is known, says according to Dusan Reljic t the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, is that the culprits wanted to disrupt the reconciliation of governments in Belgrade and Pristina.

"It's difficult to point fingers at the persons responsible for the incidents," the Balkan expert told DW. Since the disruptions caused low voter turnout, Rejiic said, it was not in the interest of Serbian right-wing nationalists to keep local Serbs from going to the polls.

Belgrade and Pristina

The elections also represented the first time the government in Belgrade called on Serbs in northern Kosovo to take part in elections. This paradigm shift is part of a normalization treaty between Belgrade and Pristina mediated by the EU. The aim of the treaty is the integration of the north into the state. In return, Serb communities should receive far-reaching autonomy rights. These are both conditions for Serbia to start accession negotiations with the EU.

Dusan Reljic says the Belgrade government lost credibility because of its political turnaround

However, the election turnout of Serbs in the three communities in the north was low. Around 80 percent did not go to the polls. One reason was that the Belgrade's political about-face came so quickly.

"For years, the proponents of this policy, Prime Minister Dacic and his deputy Vucic, upheld a totally different policy," Relic said. "In many people's eyes, the sudden change of direction made [those politicians] implausible."

A case for persuasion

For successful rapprochement to truly take place, locals need to be persuaded, says journalist Ernst - and decisions should not be made without first consulting the people.

"In that respect, the political culture in Belgrade and Pristina seems to resemble one another. Nation-building is seen as a top-down process," he said.

But doing it in such a manner cannot work, Ernst says. "State legitimacy is granted by the citizen, hence, from the bottom," the journalist said. It was a mistake, therefore, that Serbs in northern Kosovo did not take part in the negotiations in Brussels.

Unlike in the north, Serbs in central and southern Kosovo came to terms with life in Kosovo. Nor was this their first time taking part in Kosovar elections. But that is mainly due to geographical location, with Serbians throughout Kosovo simply having no other option.

A view from Belgrade (Al Jazeera, by Zorana Suvakovic, 6 November 2013)

The recent Kosovo elections demonstrate a U-turn in Serbian politicians' rhetoric and policy.

It was a local election that was meant to mark the first milestone in the EU-brokered plan for integrating the Serbian minority into the rest of Kosovo. Instead it resulted in tear gas and smashed ballot boxes after masked men attacked polling stations at three locations on the Serb side of the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica in Kosovo. The fate of the election remains unclear.

Though this tale is seemingly about men with hoodies and ski masks, it is not complete without three crucial players: Belgrade, Brussels and Pristina. None of these three can afford to lose momentum in the implementation of the plan agreed upon in Brussels. So for the first time, the three sides were working together to present these election as a success story, regardless of the violent incidents which could reappear in the future to affect the process of integrating the Serbian minority population into Kosovo.

For Brussels, "failure is not an option", as a high European Union diplomat told me commenting on the election. As the first step in the implementation of the EU plan for Kosovo, the election should demonstrate the success of an EU led diplomatic mission, something that -until now- eluded the EU. For this reason Brussels will not allow this rare possibility for a positive spotlight in the international arena to be compromised by failure.

The participation of Serbs from the northern part of Kosovo would demonstrate that Pristina has finally achieved control over the whole territory which was declared an independent state in 2008. Kosovo institutions -until now- never really covered this area, and Serbian institutions continued to function. Kosovo's self-proclaimed independence has been recognized by 106 of 193 UN member states and 23 of 28 EU countries. Pristina expects that the process of recognition will be accelerated with the integration of the Serbian minority in Kosovo. Though the Serbian government pledgednever to recognize Kosovo as independent, Dacic's coalition government has practically recognized, through these elections, the authority of Thaci's government over the north. In return, Belgrade wants autonomy for the Serbs living there. Some of the voters in Kosovo feared this might lead to partition. For this reason Hashim Thaci and his party did not fare well in this election.

Belgrade, on the other hand, went out of its way to convince Serbs in Kosovo to vote in the election while maintaining that they are status-neutral. In exchange, Brussels would give the green light to accession talks and send a much needed message of stability to foreign investors.

Under the masks

Sunday's incident was a product of a number of sharp U-turns in Belgrade's rhetoric. Following decades of patriotic speeches about Kosovo as the cradle of Serbian statehood, politicians started shaking hands with Pristina leaders. Serbs are now being told, "let us once do something that is in our interest and not in the interest of our enemies," as Ivica Dacic, prime minister of Serbia, and former inflammatory spokesman of the Milosevic regime described, at the time, "Little Sloba". This is hard to swallow by a great number of Serbs in the north of Kosovo and in Serbia, since, for years, the myth of Kosovo as the heart of Serbia was nurtured and formed a large part of the political platform of politicians who are now saying just the opposite.

Mr Aleksandar Vucic, vice prime minister and the leader of the largest party, recognized both nationally and internationally as the most powerful person in Serbia, was, in his youth, a hardline proponent for a Greater Serbia which included not only Kosovo but also parts of Croatia, Bosnia and Montenegro. His Party recruited groups of thugs and soccer fans as volunteers for armed fighting in the Balkan wars of the 90s. Both Vucic and Dacic were banned from entering the EU at the time.

"I was part of a government that tried to resolve the question of Kosovo by war. Perhaps there is some justice today that I should be the person most responsible for finding a peaceful solution," Dacic recently proudly wrote in the Belgrade weekly NIN. For a large number of people, who followed the drums of war for years, this U-turn equals treason. The hardliners among these went to Kosovo in masks to prevent the elections by force and fear.

Common wisdom in Serbia is that there is still a hidden link between these  masked gangs and some high-ranking politicians. These gangs, however, cannot adjust easily to political U-turns, and to being dubbed hard to control hooligans instead of patriots. Just a month ago Serbian authorities-for the third consequtive year- banned the gay pride march in Belgrade over alleged fears of violence by these right-wing thugs. How could they have hoped to prevent violence by these thugs in Kosovo, if they do not control them any longer in Belgrade?

Similarly, just a day before the Kosovo local elections incidents, these hooligans were throwing smoke bombs and lighting fires at a football match in Serbia's capital. Two years ago masked men were encouraged by the current ruling coalition - in opposition at the time - to build barricades, use arms and prevent the implementation of another EU-brokered plan.

Treason or patriotism?

Who should be considered a traitor and who a patriot is confusing to the Serbian public today as politicians change their discourse. Until recently Belgrade called for a boycott of all elections in Kosovo under the jurisdiction of Pristina. Those who participated in the elections were labelled traitors. Serbs in the enclaves in the south of Kosovo surrounded by majority Albanian population participated in the Kosovo elections since 2007 and had representatives in the Kosovo parliament. Belgrade held this against them. Now, when Belgrade did its utmost to promote Serb voter turnout in the elections, Serbs in the south were hailed as those who listened to Belgrade. They are now the patriots while Serbs in the north who insisted on an election boycott are labelled traitors.

Brussels also contributes to the confusion regarding Kosovo. During the negotiations leading to the Brussels agreement Belgrade had to constantly remind EU officials to uphold the principle of status neutrality. Five of the 28 EU member states did not recognize the self-proclaimed Kosovo independence. According to EU rules all crucial decisions have to be consensual so no document can mention explicitly or implicitly an independent Kosovo. Just before the elections Pristina printed ballots with Kosovo state insignia which created additional disquiet among the Serbs. Brussels did not react to this fast enough and Hashim Thachi boasted that the participation of Serbs in the election was a clear sign that their goal of statehood has been reached.

There is hardly a person today in Serbia who considers it possible for Kosovo to remain a part of Serbia. However no ruling politician, with few from the opposition, call Kosovo an independent state. It would be highly unlikely for anyone to win elections if they said this out loud. The loudest opponents of Serbia joining the EU are now the biggest supporters of a modern European Serbia. The international community that is now full of praise for the current Serbian leadership ignores the past but most Serbs cannot forget.

Zorana Suvakovic is a Belgrade-based journalist, columnist and editor, working for the Serbian newspaper Politika.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Serbia and Kosovo's bumpy road to Brussels (Today’s Zaman, by Joost Lagendijk, 5 November 2013)

Last Sunday local elections were held in Kosovo, the majority ethnic Albanian country that declared independence from Serbia in 2008. That would in all likelihood not have raised a lot of attention had it not been for the fact that this was the first time ballot boxes were open all over the country, including the disputed north where Serbs constitute the majority of the population. That explains why nobody outside the country is really interested in the results of the elections in the cities where Kosovo Albanians have cast their vote. Not even the Kosovo Serbs living in the south of the country created a lot of news because the turnout in these communities was above average and they elected, as expected, ethnic Serb candidates for mayor.

No, all attention was focused on four small towns in the north where around 50,000 Serbs were supposed to elect their local councils and mayors. These Kosovo Serbs have never accepted the authority of the central Kosovar government and, until recently, were supported politically and financially by Serbia proper, where many still find it hard to accept that Kosovo is lost.

Things changed, however, when Serbia applied for EU membership last year, and Brussels made it crystal clear that accession talks would only start after Kosovo and Serbia had found an agreement on their future relations in general and the situation in northern Kosovo in particular. In April the EU brokered a deal between Belgrade and Pristina that, if implemented, would enable Kosovo to start talks with the EU on first steps towards membership and would allow Serbia to open accession talks in December.

A crucial part of that agreement was the municipal elections of last weekend. When and if the elections would prove to be a success, a new sort of autonomy would be put into place. Funding and overall authority would pass to Kosovo's central government, but special branches of the judiciary and police would be created to serve the ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo. The six areas in southern Kosovo where most of Kosovo's ethnic Serbs live and the four towns in the north were also stimulated to establish an Association of Serbian Municipalities that would be able to defend the rights of all Kosovo Serbs with the central authorities in Pristina.

The deal looked great, but it did not work.

The elections in the four northern towns were a failure because hardly any Kosovo Serb went out to vote, and the voting in many polling stations in northern Kosovo had to be interrupted after violence and intimidation by Serbian hard-liners. Their objections were summarized by a student quoted by Reuters who said: “These elections are an act of high treason that will ultimately cut Kosovo off from Serbia and lead to a Serb exodus from Kosovo. Belgrade is betraying Kosovo for the vague prospect of … so-called European integration.”

For several analysts, this outcome did not come as a surprise. A report by the Balkans Policy Research Group, published two weeks ago, already underlined the poor job done by Belgrade of explaining the accords to the Kosovo Serbs who are loyal to the Serbian state and do not support or trust the current government. Despite repeated calls from Serb politicians to participate in the elections, it was obvious that the boycott organized locally was very popular because it played on the fears of many Kosovo Serbs who are afraid that after the implementation of the Brussels agreement, Belgrade will write them off. The report suggests a repeat of the local elections in the north in six to eight months, after having explained properly to the local population what is at stake and having ensured what is needed for genuinely free and fair voting.

Similar calls to annul the voting in the four municipalities and ask the Serb government to step in were done on Monday. It is questionable, however, whether Pristina and Brussels will be very happy with such interference from Belgrade. On the other hand, both have to admit that the Kosovo authorities failed to win the hearts and minds of the Kosovo Serbs. Most probably, the EU will again be called upon to come up with a typical Brussels compromise to save the European future of Kosovo and Serbia.

Second Term Less Likely For Macedonian President (BIRN, by Sinisa Jakov Marusic, 1 November 2013)

The Macedonian government's junior partner, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, says it is unlikely to support Gjorge Ivanov standing again as head of state.

DUI head Ali Ahmeti said his party will probably not support Ivanov if he runs for a second term in the March 2014 elections.
“We have not seen anything bad from him but there was nothing positive either,” Ahmeti said.
The DUI’s likely refusal to back Ivanov will dent his chances of running for a second term.
Macedonia's main ruling party, VMRO DPMNE, has yet to say if it will support Ivanov running again. Meanwhile media reports speculate that it is mulling other candidates.
One possible candidate is the seasoned diplomat Srgjan Kerim who also presided over the 62nd session of the UN General Assembly. Another name in the ring is Zoran Stavreski, the Vice-Prime Minister and Finance Minister. Neither has confirmed any such ambition.
A former university professor, Ivanov won his first term in 2009.
Owing most of his votes to VMRO DPMNE and the DUI, Ivanov won convincingly with 59 per cent - 450,000 votes - in the run-off round.
His opponent in the second round, Ljubomir Frckoski, of the opposition Social Democrats, won 34 per cent - 263,000 votes.

Ivanov's critics complain that he has spent his term in the shadow of the Prime Minister and VMRO DPMNE leader, Nikola Gruevski.
So far, the opposition has been silent about its own likely candidate, suggesting that he or she may come from outside the ranks of the party.