LOCAL PRESS

 

Dacic: UNMIK, KFOR and EULEX guarantee survival of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija (RTS)

The presence of EULEX, UNMIK and KFOR missions represents guarantee for the survival of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija, said Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic in talks with EULEX head Bernd Borhard in Belgrade. The two discussed the possibility of promotion of bilateral cooperation, especially in the field of the creation of conditions for the rule of the law in the province, which represents one of the basic tasks of EULEX. They said they were satisfied with the EU Council decision to extend EULEX’s mandate until June 2016, pointing out that its mandate is legally based on UNSCR 1244. Dacic said that the Serbian leadership expects EULEX to continue performing its activities within its present competences in the following two years as well.

 

Dacic presents priorities of Serbian OSCE chairmanship (Tanjug)

During its chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) next year, Serbia will use experience to offer contribution to stability and peace in the world, Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said at the meeting of the OSCE’s Permanent Council in Vienna Tuesday. Lessons from the past show that sustainable solutions can only be achieved through dialogue, Dacic said while presenting the priorities of Serbia's OSCE chairmanship in 2015. He recalled that two years before, Switzerland and Serbia had decided to do something unique – take up a two-year consecutive chairmanship as a joint response to challenges facing the OSCE. Dacic stressed that during the Serbian chairmanship, special attention would be devoted to the Western Balkans as a region that had faced a lot of problems and suffering in the past. The situation has changed considerably, but further efforts are needed to enhance stability, Dacic said, adding that regional reconciliation would be a major priority. He said that today, Serbia and other countries in the region were committed to accelerating the process of European integration and regional cooperation. Touching on the role of the OSCE, the Serbian foreign minister especially praised the engagement of the OSCE mission in Kosovo. During its chairmanship, Serbia will cooperate closely with Special Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office for the Western Balkans, Ambassador Gerard Stoudmann, and also continue activities started by Switzerland, Dacic said. He also stated that Serbia would make efforts to ensure that a high-level conference on illegal immigration, planned to be organized by Switzerland in cooperation with Southeast European countries, be held the following year. Given the improvements concerning the situation in the region, we are confident that there are opportunities for horizontal cooperation between the OSCE missions on the ground, Dacic said, announcing that, as future chairman-in-office, he planned to visit all of the OSCE missions on the ground, including the one in Kosovo. He said that 2015 year would mark the 40th anniversary of the adoption of the Helsinki Charter which, together with the UN Charter, might well be the most important document in modern history.
Serbs closer to Haradinaj? (Novosti)

While the post-election combinations are assembled in Pristina, the Serb MPs will probably be the key in the formation of the government since the leaders of the rivalry Albanian parties are counting precisely on the support of the Serb (Srpska) list representatives. According to unofficial information, the Serbs are closer, for the time being, to cooperation with the bloc headed by Ramush Haradinaj. Gracanica Mayor Branimir Stojanovic tells Novosti that he is awaiting an agreement of the Albanian politicians so the Serbs could receive a calling party in Pristina with whom they could negotiate on eventual participation in the government and that they already have goals. “Regardless of who will be the prime minister designate, Serb list representatives will be part of the government according to the constitutional category and Ahtisaari’s package. Serb MPs have extremely good connections with Belgrade and this makes them a better quality partner in talks with all political forces in Kosovo,” political analyst from Pristina Fatmir Sheholi tells Novosti. He believes that the future prime minister will be Haradinaj, because his Alliance for Kosovo’s Future with three more opposition parties has 63 deputies from the ranks of Albanians, which is sufficient for the formation of the government.

 

Joksimovic: We will adapt to the EU foreign policy (Tanjug)

Serbian Minister in charge of EU integrations Jadranka Joksimovic said during today’s screening on Chapter 31 on diplomacy, defense and security issues in Brussels that Serbia’s foreign policy would have to comply with the EU one, but that there was still room for maneuver in the field of internal affairs. She said that the EU foreign and security policy was not always consistent or coherent either. In this stage of association, we are able to conduct a wider foreign policy, in line with our economic interests, but later we will have to comply more, she said. In the first, bilateral part of the screening, European Commission experts will introduce the Serbian delegation to the way diplomacy, defense and security issues have been regulated in the EU, while the second part will deal with such issues in Serbia.

 

French Friends (Politika, editorial by Ana Otasevic)

The traditional military parade for 14 July, the French National Day, along with the demonstration of military power, was devoted this year to the marking of 100 years since the outbreak of World War I. The guards of the Army of Serbia also took part. The buzz word surrounding the commemoration of the Great War in France is “reconciliation”. That is why French President Hollande invited the representatives of the governments of some 80 countries “whose troops or workers participated in World War I on the European continent”. The day when the Bastille fell is always an opportunity in France for sending political messages. For Hollande, 14 July is a holiday of human rights, emancipation, human dignity, as he conveyed to “young people throughout the world”, who took part in the mini-jamboree at the end of the military parade. Doves of peace were not absent from the program. For those who don’t understand, there is also the first part of the program, with tanks, armored vehicles, mirages, helicopters, for the “successful neutralizing” of opponents. Civilian representatives of the Kosovo institutions were also among the guests, the new European state that France has been among the first to recognize. France laid the foundations of a separatist Kosovo and now it is helping Kosovo to force its way onto the international scene. The Serbian friends of the French, who are trying to remind them of the alliance from World War I, can’t do anything here. The French have a fresher memory of the war that was waged in the province of Kosovo and which they take as an example of “successful engagement” of French troops on foreign territory. After all, in the column of French soldiers that were parading in the Elysian Fields, there were also those who served in Kosovo. The Serbian side managed to arrange it so that Kosovo’s military representatives do not appear in the Champs-Elysées and that the participation of the delegation be limited to the civil part of the program. But, what could even be the justification for inviting Kosovo to take part in the upcoming donors’ conference for Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina (B&H) following the disastrous floods, which France organizes together with the EU? This is more diplomatic malice than simple clumsiness. Besides, neither Serbia nor B&H have recognized Kosovo. Unfortunately, the protest from the presidential cabinet to European Commission representatives and French organizers arrived too late, when the invitation letters had already departed Brussels, while the Foreign Ministry didn’t give any announcements. Serbia also missed the opportunity to demonstrate that it has a single foreign policy, but also that it has influence today in France, with whom it was on the same side in two world wars. 

 

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

New negotiations after elections (Fena)
The leader of the Social-Democratic Party (SDP) of B&H and the head of the party list for the state parliament Zlatko Lagumdzija has stated in Sarajevo that only after the general elections in B&H on 12 October will new negotiations, important for the future of the country, follow. The current Foreign Minister supported the thesis that new negotiations on B&H will open with the already voiced stands of the Peace Implementation Council that had given hints, within the last sessions, for the need for structural reforms He recalled in this context the EU approach, i.e. the statement of the EU Council of Ministers in six points on the new approach for B&H from April this year. Lagumdzija explains that this statement stems from the integrity of B&H and its indivisibility, as well as the need for an urgent and serious economic reform and establishment of rule of law, to a clearly voiced stand that full inclusion of the international community into structural reforms is expected after the October elections. The implementation of the Sejdic-Finci ruling, whereby national discrimination from the election process should be eliminated, will only be one part of the structural, i.e. constitutional reforms, stressed Lagumdzija. He specified that the key political actors, who receive the mandate of B&H citizens at the elections, may sit at the table as early as at the end of the year. He added that these negotiations should continue in the spirit of the message that US Vise President Joseph Biden conveyed to domestic parliamentarians during the visit to B&H, by saying on what grounds a more functional state should be built. “I am certain that there will be such a meeting that will be attended by political parties that will receive the mandate of citizens, and naturally, these reforms will have to take place in the B&H parliament,” said Lagumdzija, stressing the significance of the B&H Presidency, as the collective head of state, in that process.

 

Dodik: Hill is a pathological liar (Srna) 

The Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik said that the Charge d’Affaires of the U.S. Embassy to B&H Nicholas Hill is a pathological liar and proven obfuscator in B&H who significantly contributed to the escalation of conflict in the former Yugoslavia. Commenting on Hill’s statement that dissatisfaction is boiling in the RS because of the endemic corruption of the leadership in that entity, Dodik told reporters in Samac that Hill is lying shamelessly, that everything he says is a lie. “His statements in connection with the RS leadership first of all pertain to me. The SDS’ story of ten years ago in connection with my property in Cyprus is a blatant lie. I believe Hill is doing this to support the SDS, and I believe he is a pathological liar,” Dodik said. Calling it pathetic that a representative of a country such as America behaves in such a manner, Dodik said that Hill is sending false reports to the U.S. “That is his personal position. As far as the U.S. is concerned, I think it is hostage to such frustrated and bad people who have for years in the field justified their exorbitant salaries by such false reports,” Dodik told reporters, noting that Hill’s statements on the RS leadership are the best evidence of the above.
He said that Hill is not someone who should be in this country. “However, since B&H is as it is – ridiculous, incomplete and unviable – persons such as he can stay here and have one portion of B&H applaud their lies and so support such manipulators, who do not bring any good,” Dodik said. He reiterated that B&H cannot survive without agreement. “There can be no B&H if we do not reach agreement on its being. With persons such as Hill’s, we surely will never reach agreement, and may it disappear as soon as possible,” Dodik said.

 

 

Raguz: Time for people who can introduce new political dimension in B&H (Nezavisne novine)

The HDZ 1990 leader Martin Raguz has stated that he is satisfied with the reaction and support of the public relating to his candidacy for the Croat Member of the B&H Presidency, and emphasized that the time has come for the people who can “overcome blockades and introduce a new political dimension in B&H.” 

 

Nuland: U.S. will strongly support name dispute resolution process in the UN (Republika)

“The U.S. will continue to strongly support the name dispute resolution process in the UN in order for FYROM to receive its well-deserved place in NATO and EU,” U.S. Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland stated after meeting with Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski. In regard to the name dispute, Gruevski reiterated that Macedonia and Greece were obliged to resume the UN-mediated negotiations in a constructive manner.

“The two countries should start working towards efficient settling of the dispute with good will and wish for success in line with the democratic principles and the international law,” Gruevski said, notifying the 2011 ruling of the International Court of Justice. At the meeting with Nuland, Gruevski expressed belief the U.S. would continue to more vigorously contribute to finding a just and mutually acceptable solution.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Kosovo Opposition Fails to Create United Front (BIRN, 14 July 2014)

Opposition parties have not yet been able to work out an agreement which would enable them to block Hashim Thaci from returning to the Kosovo premiership after recent polls.

Opposition leaders from the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Nisma and the Vetevendosje Movement failed on Monday to reach a deal aimed at stopping outgoing Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, head of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, from forming the next government.

The parties met in a bid to thrash out an agreement that would give them a chance of governing instead of Thaci’s party, but they did not manage to resolve their political differences.

Albin Kurti, head of the Vetevendosje Movement said, there were “discrepancies between verbal agreements achieved in earlier meetings and the readiness to put those on paper and sign them”.

The Vetevendosje Movement had promised support to the opposition bloc only if certain conditions are met.

Vetevendosje insists that the current Brussels-backed dialogue on normalizing relations with Serbia should stop, while dialogue with local Kosovo Serbs should be developed.

It also wants a parliamentary commission to look into the dialogue held with Serbia over the past three years.

Without giving specific details of the differences, AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj called on the parties to “overcome this situation”.

The opposition has to resolve its disagreements by Thursday, when the new parliament is due to be constituted and President Atifete Jahjaga is to name a candidate for prime minister.

About two weeks ago, the Constitutional Court advised Jahjaga that the party “that won the highest number of seats as a result of the elections to be given the possibility to propose a candidate for prime minister to form the government”.

Thaci’s Democratic Party of Kosovo won the largest share of the votes – roughly 30 per cent - and is expected to have 37 seats in parliament.

But if the first proposed candidate for prime minister – presumably Thaci – fails to achieve a 61-seat majority support in parliament, the constitutional court has given Jahjaga wide leeway in nominating a new candidate.

The president, the court’s majority wrote, “has to assess what is the highest probability for a political party or coalition to propose a candidate for prime minister who will obtain the necessary votes in the assembly for the establishment of a new government”.

This could open the door for the opposition bloc to nominate Haradinaj as premier, should Thaci fail to form a government.

However, Haradinaj and his allies’ hopes will largely depend on the votes of the Vetvendosje Movement to ensure the necessary majority in parliament.

Talks between the opposition parties are due to continue in the upcoming days.

 

Deutsche Welle: Turkish PM to protect Bosnians with 100 mln Turks (Focus News Agency, 14 July 2014)

Ankara. Speaking at an electioneering rally, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that everyone, who tried to harm the Bosnians would face at least 100 million Turks against them, Deutsche Welle reported in its programme for Macedonia.

“I swear in Allah that anyone, who dares to harm the Bosnians, will face 100 million Turks,” Erdogan remarked.

In his words, in the past the Ottoman Empire handed its brothers to Austria-Hungary and it will never forget itself about it.

“That is why no one should be surprised if a Turkish military ship enters the Bosnian port of Neum,” the Turkish Prime Minister said.

Erdogan’s statement led to wild reactions among the politicians.

Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik said that the Bosnians were living freely in the entire Bosnia and Herzegovina, while Erdogan’s statement was interference in the home affairs of the country.

Member of the Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic, on the other hand, said that Erdogan’s statement was “the most brutal, hardest and most direct insult and threat at the Serbs and Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina”.

Turkish Ambassador to Belgrade, Mehmet Kemal Bozay, however, claimed that the Turkish Prime Minister had never made such a statement.

 

Bosnian Serb Leader Backs Israel's Gaza Operation (Israel News, by Michael Freund, 14 July 2014)

Milorad Dodik offers rare unconditional support for Israel, says 'extreme Islamist groups' threaten 'the entire world community'

Nearly alone among European leaders, Milorad Dodik, the President of Republika Srpska (the Bosnian Serb Republic), has expressed unqualified support for Israel and its counter-terror operation in the wake of ongoing Palestinian rocket fire.

In a letter sent to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Dodik condemned the rocket attacks against Israel and noted his “complete understanding and support for Israel’s determination to respond to terrorist threats and actions in order to protect the safety of its citizens and their property”.

“The terrorist threats and actions of extreme Islamist groups are a threat to the entire world community,” Dodik pointed out, adding that Israel is on the front lines in confronting this menace.

Bosnia’s Serbs, Dodik said, “deeply and sincerely sympathize with the friendly people of the State of Israel”, and asked Netanyahu to “please accept our profound respect, support and compassion for your people”.

Not to be confused with its sovereign neighbor Serbia, Republika Srpska is one of two autonomous political entities which constitute Bosnia. The other is known as the Federation of Bosnia & Herzegovina, and is under joint Muslim and Croat rule.

Dodik has been a longtime friend and supporter of Israel, which he has visited in the past.

In November 2011, when the Palestinian Authority sought UN membership as a state, the deciding vote on the Security Council belonged to Bosnia. Although the Muslim and Croatian part of Bosnia backed the Palestinian bid, Republika Srpska opposed it, which led the Bosnian delegation to the UN to withhold support for the Palestinian cause.

With a population numbering 1.5 million people, Republika Srpska has its own president, parliament, executive branch and Supreme Court. Its capital is based in the city of Banja Luka in northwestern Bosnia, which is home to a small Jewish community.

 

Montenegro’s Capital Stuck in Political Limbo (BIRN, by Dusica Tomovic, 14 July 2014)

Almost two months since local elections, Montenegro's capital Podgorica still has no administration because political parties have not reached a deal on who will rule.

Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said on Sunday that his ruling Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, and the Social Democratic Party, SDP, could sign an agreement on forming an administration in Podgorica by the end of July, ending the deadlock which has left the capital in limbo since the mayor and city management’s mandate expired in mid-June.

"Negotiations started ten days ago. As much as it looks realistic, success and time limits depend on both sides," Djukanovic said.

No single party won a majority in the local elections in Podgorica on May 25, which were marred by numerous irregularities at polling stations.

The DPS won 29 of the 59 seats in the local assembly and only needs one more vote to form an administration. The opposition Socialist People's Party, SNP, and the Democratic Front together won 25 seats, while the SDP's alliance with the Positive Montenegro party won five.

But the negotiations have run into trouble because the SDP refused to support the DPS candidate for mayor of Podgorica, Education Minister Slavoljub Stojapovic.

SDP chief Ranko Krivokapic said on Friday that it was not true that the parties were close to agreement and announced another condition for cooperation, demanding that the capital’s mayor be a ‘non-political’ figure.

"We will not give up on the request. Anyone who does not accept our concept will not be with us," Krivokapic said.

The SDP is Djukanovic's partner in government but has been in opposition at the local level in Podgorica since 2010.

It is now negotiating with its local coalition partner Positive whether it will back Djukanovic’s DPS in the capital, or whether it will back the opposition.

SDP's official position is to negotiate primarly with the party which won the most votes in the local elections, but Positive has announced that it refuses to cooperate with the DPS.

The opposition, led by the Democratic Front, has said that it is ready to make an agreement with the SDP-Positive coalition "without blackmail and conditions" in order to "send Djukanovic to the opposition" in the capital.

The opposition has unconditionally agreed to the SDP's requirement that the mayor of Podgorica be a non-political figure.

Vladan Zugic, the political editor at the independent newspaper Vijesti, told BIRN that he was not optimistic that any agreement will be reached soon.

"Although it is difficult to estimate what the outcome will be, I believe that early elections are the only possibility," he said.

Positive official Dritan Abazovic said meanwhile that another possible scenario was for his party and the SDP to try to form a minority administration in Podgorica.

"Although this option is not so realistic at this point, new elections could only be in favor of Djukanovic. Whoever initiates that is a player for the DPS team," Abazovic told BIRN.

He said that the May elections showed that Montenegro is still a deeply divided society, but the best option would be for the SDP-Positive coalition to make an agreement with the opposition.

Analyst Zuguc meanwhile said he doubted whether the SDP would forge another alliance with the DPS because of their past disagreements in Podgorica which led it to quit the local administration in 2010.

“I believe that the SDP will not allow itself to serve as a weapon for the salvation of Djukanovic in Podgorica," he said.

 

EU Facilitated Dialogue Model Won’t Resolve Macedonia, Bosnia Logjams (BIRN, by Steven Blockmans, 15 July 2014)

Copy-pasting the EU facilitated dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo to resolve the deadlocks over Macedonia’s name issue, and inside Bosnia, won’t be straightforward

The 9th Croatia Forum, held in Dubrovnik from 10 to 12 July, was a well-attended conference, notable for both the animated debates on the EU integration of the Western Balkans and the intimate late night sing-alongs led by the Croatian and Serbian Foreign Ministers Vesna Pusiæ and Ivica Daèiæ.

Whereas there was consensus about the truism in Jean-Claude Jüncker's recent statements to the European Parliament, that “no further enlargement will take place over the next five years", there was also a palpable dismay among speakers, most vocally expressed by Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt and European Commissioner Stefan Füle, about the ambiguity left by the Commission President designate’s one-liner.

It was felt that Jüncker's third foreign policy priority, “a pause for enlargement”, sends the wrong signal and reflects a lack of candour by certain leaders in the EU to match progress on reforms by candidate countries with their own obligations to explain the benefits of enlargement to European voters. As a result, the credibility of the enlargement policy suffers. The need for continued engagement from candidate countries and member states alike resonated at the Forum.

Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, tipped by some as a candidate to succeed Catherine Ashton as High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, meanwhile distinguished herself by making a controversial statement.

Asked by Tim Judah, of The Economist, whether the next High Representative could replicate the model of the EU-Facilitated Dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo to solve the Macedonian name dispute, and break the political deadlock in Bosnia and Herzegovina, she answered unequivocally “Yes”.

While one can sympathise with the idea that the EU should play a more active role as mediator in these cases, the copy-pasting of the Facilitated Dialogue is not as straightforward as one may be led to believe.

The Facilitated Dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo is a mechanism to settle a series of disputes between two outsiders to the EU - a candidate country and a potential candidate. The main motivation for both parties to engage in the HR-led process is the prospect of EU accession.

The Macedonian name issue, however, concerns a dispute between a candidate country and a member state, which reflects an inherently asymmetric relationship, as Greece is able to steer relations between the EU and Macedonia from within the European Union. Outsourcing the dispute settlement mechanism to an independent and impartial body like the United Nations is preferable in order to maintain the objectivity and neutrality of the mediation process, rather than risking that an unhappy member state party to the dispute compromises the position of the High Representative in a new Facilitated Dialogue.

In any case, switching from the UN process led by Ambassador Matthew Nimetz to an High Representative-led track would require not just the approval of Greece and Macedonia - whose leaderships have benefitted for years from the cover provided by the Nimetz process to further identity politics at home - but also consensus among the other 27 member states. The likelihood of those stars aligning is rather small.

Rather than replicating the Facilitated Dialogue to resolve the Macedonian name issue, the foreign ministers of EU member states would be better advised to coax Greece to compromise in the Nimetz process and live up to the 2011 judgment of the International Court of Justice, ICJ. [The court said Greece should have honoured a 1995 deal not to block Macedonia’s quest for membership of international institutions].

This would thereby allow the Council of the EU to follow up on the European Commission’s fifth (soon to be sixth) consecutive recommendation to open accession negotiations with Macedonia, instead of blocking Council decision-making and undermining the Commission's authority in leading the technocratic side of the enlargement policy.

Should the stars miraculously align and member states and Macedonia agree to abandon the atrophied Nimetz process, then they could turn to the European Commission for help.

As a supranational institution, independent of the member states, the Commission has already facilitated finding avenues to resolve the disputes over maritime border demarcation and bank savings between member state Slovenia and candidate country Croatia.In the case of Bosnia, too, member states could rely on the European Commission to break the political deadlock. One particular model of facilitation provides a source of inspiration - the High-level Dialogue on the Accession Process. Billed as an initiative to help Bosnia move forward in the accession process, by explaining the methodology of EU accession negotiations, and by discussing what is expected from a candidate country, the Commission's underlying motive has been to "facilitat[e] the efforts of the political leaders to find a solution to the Sejdiæ/Finci issue" and, more generally, to help them “to speak with one voice”.

Whereas the intense efforts by Commissioner Füle and his staff between June 2012 and October 2013 were unsuccessful in achieving those aims, the High-level Dialogue should be reactivated by the next European Commission – which anyway embarks on its activities only after the October 2014 Presidential and general elections in Bosnia.

In order to successfully push for better economic and political governance, this High-Level Dialogue should go hand-in-hand with the ongoing Structured Dialogue on Justice and a more systematic dialogue with civil society.

The movement that arose from the popular protests over the past months should be taken seriously as the first organised civil society initiative to reject the Bosnian politics of old, and could act as a powerful driving force towards the integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina with the EU. As suggested in a CEPS commentary with Erwan Fouéré, “the Plenums demonstrated the potential role for civil society and citizens groups at local level in overcoming the leadership gridlock. Their voices must be heard, so that both the constitutional and policy solutions [which need to be] put forward reflect their concerns.”

The High-level Dialogue should facilitate budding civil society organisations, also if a political earthquake takes place in October's elections and throws out those politicians that have been safeguarding their own jobs and incomes by not complying with EU conditionality.

In short, the model of the EU-facilitated Dialogue should best be left to the settlement of disputes between Serbia and Kosovo and not be replicated to solve the Macedonian name issue and break the political deadlock in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Alternative mechanisms exist and should be strengthened, and indeed embedded within the increased regional cooperation through the new “Enhanced Cooperation in the Stabilisation and Association Process” and the existing South East Europe Cooperation Process and the Regional Cooperation Council.

Steven Blockmans is Head of EU Foreign Policy at the Centre for European Policy Studies, CEPS

 

Is Macedonia on the Brink of Another Ethnic Conflict? (The VICE, by Jack Davies, 15 July 2014)

The Macedonian capital of Skopje saw its second angry Albanian demonstration in as many weeks on Friday. A week previously on the 4th of July, the city’s Albanian minority rioted against the outcome of a politically charged murder trial, dubbed the “Monster Case”. So, come the weekend, everyone was expecting another round of hurled concrete, baton swings and burned wheelie-bins.

Macedonia is a divided country. Slightly less than two thirds of the population are ethnically Macedonian. The second largest ethnic grouping, accounting for just over a quarter of the population, is Albanian.

In 2001, tensions between the two groups escalated into an armed conflict between government security forces and the Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA). The conflict was short lived and brought to a close with the Ohrid Agreement, a peace treaty that saw NLA commanders rebranded as legitimate politicians and enhanced social and political rights being granted to Macedonia’s Albanian citizens.

While armed hostilities ended nearly 13 years ago, relations between the different groups are still not all that friendly. Albanians still feel disadvantaged, neglected and that their rights are unequally applied.

The “Monster Case” has become the latest shitty banner for disaffected Albanians in Macedonia to rally around. The case saw seven Albanians tried for the execution-style murder of five ethnic Macedonians. The prosecution framed the murders as acts of Islamic terrorism, designed to destabilise the country.

On Monday the 30th of June, the court found six of the seven guilty, sentencing them to life imprisonment. The verdict enraged the Albanian community, who saw the trial as a mockery. Commentators from both sides of the ethnic divide have observed that the evidence against most (some say all) of the defendants would not have held up in any other court.

The Albanian community was even more angry by the support lent to the case’s outcome by senior Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) politicians. The DUI was formed from the ashes of the NLA and since 2008 it has been in a ruling coalition with the Macedonian nationalist VMRO DPMNE. For many Albanians this is seen as a betrayal, which is manifested in endless neglect of Albanian interests in the party’s governance. Support for the conviction of the six “Monster Case” defendants was seen as typifying the sellout.

So, on Friday 4th July, the city centre exploded. Thousands marched the short distance from a mosque in the city-centre Albanian neighbourhood of Bit Pazar to Mavrovka shopping centre. They were met by armoured vehicles by the dozen and row upon row of body-armour-clad, riot-shield-bearing, faceless-under-visor riot cops.

Fighting soon broke out between crowd and cops. Tear gas and rubber bullets were deployed. Protesters responded by hurling crates of beer bottles and chunks of concrete. The police pushed the protesters back into the narrow alleyways of central Skopje’s Albanian neighbourhoods. Every street was bitterly fought for until the protesters had been spread so thin throughout the labyrinth of side streets that all momentum was lost.

Macedonian-language media was joined by DUI and VMRO politicians in denouncing the violence. However, DUI’s leadership acknowledged that a repeat of that violence would be even more damaging than making concessions to its actors. So, whilst the protesters planned another Friday of protest, DUI officials began denouncing the trial and its verdict, whilst calling on protesters to refrain from further violence.

Meanwhile, ethnic-Macedonian football fan groups, known for being militant supporters of VMRO, planned a counter-protest. Many feared the Macedonian protesters would clash with their Albanian counterparts.

Come the morning of last Friday, the 11th of July, Skopje city centre was once again full of police and armoured vehicles.

Lunchtime prayers ended and thousands of Albanian men gathered once more outside the mosque in Bit Pazar. Many concealed their faces. Those whose faces weren’t hidden displayed bitter anger on them. Red and black flags bearing the Albanian eagle were waved high alongside banners bemoaning the DUI and the “Monster Case”. As they marched forward it looked certain that things would kick off.

After half a kilometre police and protesters were toe to toe. More precisely, nose to riot shield. Angry nationalist slogans were screamed, chunks of concrete were sent hurtling over police lines and into the gathered press pack, which found itself scrambling for cover between photographs.

Unlike the week before, however, the legions of police with their panzer division of riot-suppression vehicles remained remarkably calm. Behind the scenes, officers dashed back and forth with preparatory fire extinguishers; but the at the frontlines, cops maintained poker faces.

Then, after an hour or so had passed and sufficient anger had been displayed, the protesters started marching back the way they came, with only a handful of testosterone-pumped adolescent stragglers lingering to throw a few last taunts at the police and assemblage of journalists. Strangely, the Macedonian counter protest had failed to materialise also.

Just thirty minutes later and no one would have been able to guess Skopje had been on the brink of chaos.

A tight lid, manifested in the detention of political prisoners, is kept on dissidence in Macedonia for an important reason. This is the second instance in as many months of ethnic issues boiling over into violent action. The first, in May, saw Macedonians destroying Muslim and Albanian property following the fatal stabbing of a young Macedonian. During the 2001 conflict it seemed at times as though the only solution would be federalisation, effectively splitting the country into two nations. Now, as tensions rise to the surface again, there are commentators that fear federalisation – or worse, war – might be the ultimate outcome.

If that happened, the repercussions could spread beyond just Macedonia, across the Balkans. If Macedonia’s Albanians are allowed to form their own state, why not then the Serbs in northern Kosovo, or Bosnia’s Republika Srpbska?

As with Macedonia, there has never been a proper resolution to these divided countries that emerged following the disintegration of Yugoslavia. And just as Yugoslavia began to fall apart following seemingly innocuous secessions, there is a fear that boundary changes in Macedonia could trigger serious unrest, or even another war, across the Balkans.