LOCAL PRESS

 

Vulin: Office for Kosovo and Metohija to operate at full capacity (Tanjug)

“The Office for Kosovo and Metohija will operate at full capacity, and it will be decided very soon who will be at its helm,” Serbian Minister of Labor and Social Issues Aleksandar Vulin said. “The Office remains at full capacity, this is the government policy. Every minister in the Serbian government must take care about the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija and everything that represents Kosovo for us,” Vulin told the press.

 

Serb parties disunited for Kosovo elections (Novosti)

The joint Serb list, which is still preparing the candidacy for the Kosovo general elections on 8 June, will not be the only Serb option in the race for the ten guarantees mandates. Namely, the coalition “Serb Kosovo-Metohija Parties” and the “Alliance of Independent Social-Democrats” have already submitted the lists, and more candidates may submit their lists to the Central Election Commission by tomorrow, when the deadline for registration expires. Proportional to the power they demonstrate on 8 June, they will share among themselves 10 guaranteed mandates, while the lists that cross the census (around 35,000 votes) will be able to receive additional mandates. A new chance for Serb unity will be the formation of one caucus. The leader of the Serbian (Srpska) Civic Initiative Vladeta Kostic tells Novosti that they will be open for this kind of cooperation: “One united caucus with other minorities is possible. As the largest minority community, we will launch such initiative.” In order for the displaced to be able to vote by post, they must register in all municipal commissioners for refugees and migrations by 18 May. If they possess Kosovo documents, they should take the original or copy with them, and those who don’t should take the Serbian ID, displaced documents, as well as take as many papers that prove residence on the territory of Kosovo and Metohija since 1998.

 

Serbs to take part in Kosovo elections with 60 MP candidates (Danas)

Serbs from Kosovo and Metohija will take part in the early parliamentary elections, organized by Pristina on 8 June, on the joint “Serbian list” that will include 60 candidates from the Independent Liberal Party (SLS), the Serbian and SDP Civic Initiatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP). According to Danas’ unofficial information, the invitation to join the list was also sent to all MPs in the recently dissolved Kosovo Assembly, including Rada Trajkovic from the United Serb List. The Serbian Government has not yet taken an official position towards the early elections in Kosovo while Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic is conditioning Serb turnout with the fulfillment of some conditions, without specifying what this is. For the time being, only the officials of the Serbian Civic Initiative and the official of the Serbian Progressive Party Milovan Drecun are publicly advocating Serb participation in the 8 June elections, although official Belgrade, Danas’ source claim, has started preparations in the field even before Kosovo President Atifete Jahjaga slated the elections.

 

Ivanovic to be candidate from prison (Novosti)

Despite the extended detention, where he will remain most probably until 27 June, members of the SDP Civic Initiative are not renouncing the help of their leader Oliver Ivanovic. His deputy in the party Ksenija Bozovic tells Novosti that she will propose that Ivanovic leads this party on the Serb list for the upcoming elections. His attorney Nebojsa Vlajic tells Novosti that legal remedies for Ivanovic’s acquittal have been exhausted, but that he will submit today “the request for protection of legality” to the Kosovo Supreme Court.

 

NATO soldiers to arrive in “South” military base (Danas)

In accordance with the strategic purpose for the Army of Serbia’s (VS) base “South” to become an international training center for soldiers from regional countries for the UN peacekeeping missions, a joint exercise will be organized in June, where, along with the VS members, members of the armies of the U.S., Albania, Azerbaijan, FYROM, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia. On that occasion, the U.S. Military Attaché to Serbia Paul Brozen, together with the representatives of the Ohio National Guard representatives, had talks with Nagip Arifi, the Mayor of Bujanovac, where this modern military training center is located. “Within the preparations for this military exercise, I received information on the plans so we can timely notify all citizens of our municipality and avoid any disagreements,” said Arifi. According to the announcement, along with the regional armies, 75 marines and five officers of the Ohio National Guard will also take part, with the goal of checking readiness of the soldiers for peacekeeping operations in which the VS members have been included for two years. The construction of the military base “South” has started right after the conflicts between the members of the Liberation Army of Bujanovac, Presevo and Medvedja with the Serbian state security forces in 2001 and now it represents a modern training center where the VS members have been training. It has also in its possession several mini bases along with the administrative line with Kosovo and Metohija and the Ground Safety zone in the municipalities of Bujanovac and Presevo.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

General elections to be held on 12 October (Srna)

The general elections in B&H will be held on 12 October, the B&H Central Election Commission (CIK) has decided. “Deadlines commence tomorrow, when political parties and independent candidates can submit registration for participation in elections,” the CIK Chair Stjepan Mikic said. According to the central election list, ending with 14 May at 24 hours, 3,231,031 people have the right to vote, of which 1,219,314 in the Republika Srpska and 2,011,717 in the Federation B&H. Mikic says that the voters from the Brcko District who opted for the entity citizenship are also included in this list and added that 56,000 Brcko inhabitants have not yet done this. He voiced regret of the CIK that at present, i.e. the slating of the general elections, the B&H Parliamentary Assembly has not passed the amendments to the B&H election law that would enable the holding of the elections for the Mostar City Council.

 

Lagumdzija: SBB completely lost in its steps (Oslobodjenje)

B&H Foreign Minister Zlatko Lagumdzija says that he learned from the media about the information on the request to reconstitute the B&H Council of Ministers, as well as his dismissal and that of Defense Minister Zekerijah Osmic. Lagumdzija said that everything will be in the B&H Parliament, which should make this decision. “I was surprised, because I don’t know whose explanation reached them. This clearly says only one thing, and that is that the SBB has completely lost itself in its steps,” stressed Lagumdzija. He considered that, as far as the SDP and he personally are concerned, he does not see that he made any mistake in the past period that would require his dismissal. The Alliance for a Better Future (SBB) caucus in the House of Representatives of B&H sought a reconstruction of the Council of Ministers, with the dismissal of Defense Minister Osmic and Foreign Minister Lagumdzija.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Kosovo Serbs Eye Belgrade Ahead of Elections (BIRN, by Edona Peci, 14 May 2014)

Kosovo-based analysts believe Belgrade's support for the general election process will have a significant impact on the turnout among Kosovo Serbs.

Marko Jaksic, a political analyst from the mainly Serbian northern part of Kosovo, says the turnout in the Kosovo elections will be lower if Serbia does not put pressure on Kosovo Serbs to vote, as it did in the last local elections held on November 17.

Jaksic was referring to the local polls in which Serbs participated and elected Serbian mayors to ten out of the 38 municipalities across the country.

The Belgrade-backed Srpska list gained significant support in the 2013 polls and won in almost all the Serbian-dominated municipalities.

Previously, local Serbs boycotted elections organized by the authorities in Pristina, saying they refused to accept Kosovo’s independence or its institutions.

“Belgrade will have an impact on the turnout in elections if it pressurizes the Serbs”, Jaksic said.

The Srpska list is planning to establish a united Serbian list, including all the Serbian parties in Kosovo, for the general elections.

Nexhmedin Spahiu, an analyst from the southern part of the divided town of Mitrovica, said Serbian parties could be a major force in and after the polls.

“If 80,000 Serbs cast ballots in these elections, there won’t be 13 MPs but 25 or 26, or at least 20,” Spahiu said.

Since 2008, the Kosovo parliament has set aside 20 seats for minority communities.

Ten seats were guaranteed for Kosovo Serbs while the others were set aside for the Roma, Ashkali, Egyptian, Bosniak, Turkish and Gorani communities.

But, according to the 2007 plan for the status of Kosovo, drawn up by UN special envoy Marti Ahtisaari, this is to be abandoned after the next parliamentary elections.

Aleksandar Stojanovic, head of the Mitrovica-based NGO, Center for the Development of Local Environments, described the decision to remove the reserved seats for minorities as a mistake.

“I think it has damaged democracy. The drop in the number of seats for minorities in parliament expresses a political message that they [minorities] are not welcome in Kosovo,” Stojanovic said.

It remains unclear how many Serbian parties will participate in the national polls. The deadline to apply for certification at the Central Election Commission expires on May 16.

Meanwhile, Tracey Jacobson, the US ambassador to Pristina, called for transparent elections and urged people to cast their ballots.

“Transparency and the sanctity of the vote is the most important thing but I would say the most important thing is participation…I would like to encourage everyone to participate in the voting. It is only by voting that you can raise your voice on how your institutions lead the country. So we want to see transparency and we want to see high levels of participation”, she said.

 

Serbia Urged to Prosecute US Albanians’ Killers (BIRN, by Marija Ristic, 15 May 2014)

A website has been launched to campaign for justice for the three Bytyqi brothers, who were killed by Serbian forces 15 years ago after going to fight for the Kosovo Liberation Army.

Fifteen years after the killing of Ylli, Agron and Mehmet Bytyqi by Serbian forces, their brother Fatose Bytyqi has launched a campaigning website “to encourage Serbia’s new government to resolve the 15-year-old execution-style murders”.

“Despite 15 years of pressure from my family, the Humanitarian Law Centre in Belgrade and the United States government, there has been no serious investigation of my brothers’ murders,” he said.

The Bytyqi brothers, US citizens of Albanian origin, joined a volunteer branch of the Kosovo Liberation Army called the Atlantic Brigades, which was active during the conflict with Belgrade’s forces in 1999.

Alongside other members of the Atlantic Brigades, who mainly came from the US, the brothers travelled to Kosovo to fight against Serbia. According to Fatose Bytyqi, after the July 1999 peace agreement that ended the Kosovo war, they then agreed to escort several Roma neighbours to Serbia.

But when they strayed over an unmarked boundary line near Merdare, they were arrested by Serbian police for illegally entering what was then Yugoslavia.

After serving their sentences, as they were leaving the Prokuplje district prison building, they were re-arrested, taken to a police training centre in Petrovo Selo, and detained in a warehouse there.

During the evening of July 9, 1999, they were tied up with wire by persons unknown and driven to a garbage disposal pit, where they were executed with shots to the back of the neck.

Their remains were exhumed in June 2001 from a mass grave in the village of Petrovo.

The Serbian war crimes prosecution indicted two police officers, Sreten Popovic and Milos Stojanovic, for allegedly transporting the brothers from Prokuplje to Petrovo Selo. In 2012, both men were acquitted.

During the trial, Stojanovic and Popovic claimed that they received the order to drive the brothers to Petrovo Selo from Vlastimir Djordjevic, who at the time was Serbia’s assistant interior minister.

In January this year, the Hague Tribunal sentenced Djordjevic to 18 years in prison for war crimes in Kosovo.

US pressure on Belgrade

The initial investigation into the brothers’ killings, which was launched by the Serbian war crimes prosecution with assistance from the US, focused on three people: Djordjevic, Vlajko Stojiljkovic, a former interior minister who killed himself in 2002, and Goran Radosavljevic, known as ‘Guri’, the former commander of a special police unit and of the Petrovo Selo training centre.

Radosavljevic is now retired, but remains active in politics as a member of the executive board of Serbia’s ruling Progressive Party.

He has been interrogated in relation to the Bytyqi brothers’ deaths, but an indictment against him has not been issued. He has denied any involvement in the crime.

According to Fatose Bytyqi, those responsible for the killing of his brothers are still living in Serbia. Last year, he met current Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, the leader of the Progressive Party, and said that he was promised progress in the case.

Serbia has been pressured several times by the US to find the perpetrators, most recently in a resolution in April last year from the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Jonathan Moore, the director of the US State Department’s Office for South Central Europe, stated at the time that Washington will “continue to call upon these authorities in Belgrade to investigate this case and to prosecute it”.

Former US diplomat Robert L. Barry, who is an adviser to the Bytyqi family, said that the time was now right to put more pressure on Serbia more, because the country “has just formed a new government keen on making progress during EU accession talks, while justice sector reform will be a key negotiating point during these talks”.

“After 15 years of foot-dragging, the time has come for the Serbian government’s war crimes prosecutors to look behind the veil of silence and act and hold top-level war criminals accountable,” Barry said.

 

Kosovo Massacre Survivors Mourn Anniversary in Anger (BIRN, by Marija Ristic, Edona Peci, 14 May 2014)

On the 15th anniversary of a deadly attack on the Kosovo village of Cuska, survivors said the recent jailings of Serbian soldiers were lenient, while other senior commanders evaded justice.

On the morning of May 14, 1999, when Serbian forces attacked Cuska, Rexhe Kelmendi was forced into a neighbour’s house with nine other Kosovo Albanian villagers. Eight of them were killed and their bodies burned; Kelmendi was the only one who evaded death.

“I just heard the gunshots,” Kelmendi remembered, standing in the hallway of the house from which he managed to escape 15 years ago. “I caught a glimpse of the window, so I just gathered all my strength and ran through it.”

The house has remained abandoned since that day; the family that lived there built a new one instead, leaving their old home as an enduring memorial to the horrific violence of May 1999.

The attack on Cuska, near the western Kosovo town of Peja/Pec, was one of the most brutal assaults by Serbian forces during the NATO bombing campaign aimed at ending the conflict in spring 1999.

According to villagers, at least 50 soldiers took part in the operation that saw homes looted, people robbed, and more than 40 people killed.

Nine former members of the Yugoslav Army’s 177th intervention squad were convicted in Belgrade in February this year of involvement in the violence in Cuska and three nearby villages, Ljubenic, Pavlan and Zahac.

Former Yugoslav Army commander Toplica Miladinovic was sentenced to 20 years in prison for ordering the unit’s commander Nebojsa Minic to launch the attacks, while other soldiers from the unit received sentences ranging from two to 20 years.

Kelmendi said however that he thought the sentences were too low.

“If there was justice in the world, they should have been brought to justice in Kosovo… The sentences they received are nothing,” he said.

“It’s a shame what the judges did… I don’t know how their consciences could allow them to pronounce this sentence,” he added.

A monument honouring the people who lost their lives that day has been installed in the centre of the village, but Kelmendi said that Cuska has never fully recovered from the attack.

Another survivor, Ardian Kelmendi, who was 18 in 1999, recalled how Serbian soldiers first put him in a group of men, who were later shot – including his father and other male relatives.

“They took my watch… they beat me. It was awful,” he said. After standing in a row with the other men, one of the soldiers took him out of the group and he was later taken to a yard where women and children were gathered.

“That was the last time I saw my father alive,” he said.

Killers were soldiers, not paramilitaries

Kelmendi also said he believed that justice had not been done despite the convictions in Belgrade.

“They committed a crime against humanity, only Serbia doesn’t want to accept it. The crimes were committed by the Serbian state and it was not paramilitaries who did it - they were not able to commit such a major crime,” he explained.

All those convicted, except commander Miladinovic, were initially indicted as members of a paramilitary unit called the ‘Jackals’. The indictment was later changed because it was proved during the trial that they were all Yugoslav Army servicemen.

Explaining the verdict, presiding judge Snezana Nikolic Garotic said that the men were not “members of paramilitary units, they were not ‘Jackals’, this was a regular army”.

Another survivor of the 1999 attack on Cuska, Erzen Lusi, who testified during the Belgrade trial, said he got the feeling that the Serbian court had tried to play down the significance of the crime.

He said that other senior figures should be prosecuted.

“It would be good to also prosecute the police commander of the Peja/Pec region, because we all know that [unit commander] Nebojsa Minic was his right-hand man,” Lusi said.

He was referring to Boro Vlahovic, wartime head of the Peja/Pec police, who was called as a witness in the case. In his testimony, he denied that he had any control over what happened in Cuska, insisting that the Yugoslav Army was in charge of military operations.

According to army documents presented during the trial, the 177th intervention squad was under the command of the 125th Brigade of the Yugoslav Army.

Miladinovic, the commander of the 177th intervention squad, also claimed during the trial that he received orders from the 125th Brigade, as did other witnesses such as former army commander Dusko Antic.

Despite this, however, the 125th Brigade’s chief, general Dragan Zivanovic, was not even invited to testify – even though he has said previously that he was responsible for the 125th Brigade.

The verdict in the Cuska case is currently being appealed by both prosecution and defendants in Belgrade.

The villagers say that once the verdict becomes final, they will decide whether to seek reparations from Serbia.

“We have to analyse this with other families in the village,” Kelmendi said. “After so many years, money doesn’t mean a lot to us. It is not just that we were left without our homes, but we lost our families too.”

 

Physicists take up key science posts in Serbian government (Physics World, 14 May 2014)

A physicist has been appointed as Serbia's minister of education, science and technological development, raising hopes that the tide might be turning for the country's ailing research sector. Srđan Verbić, 43, takes up the position after being appointed by the new Serbian prime minister Aleksandar Vučić, who was sworn into office at the end of April. Verbić will also be joined in government by Aleksandar Belić, head of the country's Institute of Physics, Belgrade, who was made secretary of state for science.

Verbić graduated in theoretical physics from the University of Belgrade in 1993, before co-ordinating the physics programmes at Petnica Science Center near Valjevo. He received a Masters in artificial intelligence in 2001 and a PhD earlier this year from the University of Belgrade in the field of evaluating knowledge tests. Verbić has also worked at the Programme for International Student Assessment and since 2005 was based in a governmental agency for evaluating education quality, where he advised on natural sciences.

Separating science from education

One of Verbić's first actions as science minister has been to group science and higher education together and separate them from the much larger education sector – something that scientists had been campaigning for since a previous dedicated science ministry was annexed to education in 2011. Verbić told physicsworld.com that he is now looking to set up a science foundation in Serbia and to bring back the best Serbian scientists from abroad. He also wants to see more investment in science, which is currently "far from satisfactory" with Serbia spending just 0.96% of its GDP on R&D in 2012.

"Unlike the huge and overcomplicated problems in education, it's clear what the problems are in science and how to solve them," Verbić told physicsworld.com. "Perhaps the most important thing is the creation of a long-term science-research policy and the separation of grant calls and evaluations from daily politics, leaving them to experts." Other issues facing Verbić include an increase in the number of institutions that are in debt and protests by researchers over poor funding and delays in getting the money they were promised. "Science funding is so small that practically all of it goes on salaries," he says.

"Extremely good news"

Verbić's appointment has been greeted positively by scientists. Milovan Šuvakov of the Institute of Physics, Belgrade, who is unofficially advising the new cabinet and who helped organize a large demonstration in support of setting up a dedicated science ministry, says the appointment is "extremely good news" for science and education in Serbia. "Verbić is an intelligent and hard-working man who always makes well-thought-through decisions and is above all very well informed about problems in these sectors," he says.

Those with political experience did not do a lot, so maybe it's time for inexperienced people
Srđan Verbić, Serbia's minister of education, science and technological development

Slobodan Bubnjević, a physicist by training who is based at the Center for Promotion of Science in Belgrade, says that Verbić's appointment came as a "big surprise" because few people believed the post would be given to a scientist. Bubnjević sees Verbić's background in physics as being positive because researchers have wanted scientists to be in charge for some time. "The expectations are enormous," he adds. However, Bubnjević worries that Verbić's lack of political weight could make reforms difficult. "Verbić is an expert in education with an untainted reputation in research and education communities, yet he is not a political figure," he says.

But Šuvakov points out that Verbić's team does have a great deal of experience. "Verbić has been working for a decade in a governmental agency that evaluates education, and Belić already has experience working in the ministry as an aide to a previous minister from 2001 to 2003," he says. Verbić seems unconcerned about his lack of political know-how. "Those with political experience did not do a lot, so maybe it's time for inexperienced people," he says. "We'll base all our decisions on empirical evidence, instead of on impressions, as is too often the case."

About the author

Mićo Tatalović is a science writer based in London

 

The EU’s Silence Should Worry Serbia (BIRN, by Jelena Milic, 14 May 2014)

EU officials may be too preoccupied to criticize what is happening in Serbia right now but they can’t ignore its ‘Putinization’ forever.

Leaving aside the events surrounding October 5, 2000, from the very beginning the process of democratization in Serbia suffered some aggravating circumstances.

The Serbian and international public had forgotten that the beginning of the process of dismantling Slobodan Milošević’s murderous regime had only just begun - and had been carried out by consciously nonviolent methods of struggle.

This strategy also implied challenging compromises with representatives of the former regime, not only with those who had violated people’s human rights while working in the system but also with the creators and implementers of war crimes in the region and of political murders in Serbia.

We also shouldn’t forget that the October 5 changes were mainly carried out because people were discontented with the negative economic effects of Milošević’s politics, not because of any deeper awareness and acceptance of the reasons why the UN introduced economic sanctions in the first place.

This is why internal political support for seriously confronting the non-democratic methods of former regime’s representatives wasn’t that strong, while pressure from the international community focused primarily on cooperation with The Hague war crimes tribunal.

The process of Serbia’s true democratization was from the start also hindered by the fact that the new regime of Prime Minister Zoran Đinđić only held power only at national level.

Owing to a combination of circumstances surrounding Montenegro’s participation in the federal elections and the nature of Vojislav Koštunica’s politics, a core formed at federal level that cannot be described as ever having been devoted to Serbia’s true democratization. Such a constellation of factors required years of focus on the further dismantling of the Milošević regime, which Serbia did not have.

Along with pressure exerted from the outside for Serbia to meet its obligations to The Hague court, which internal factors often abused, Serbia faced yet more challenges than other countries in transition and in the process of consolidating democracy.

These included an insurgency in southern Serbia, the process of privatization and financial consolidation, Đinđić’s assassination, Montenegro’s independence and the new status of Kosovo.  

Having all this in mind, it proved a good thing that - when the Bosnian Serb leader Ratko Mladić still hadn’t been arrested - the international community switched from the politics of conditionality to the politics of encouraging formal steps in the European integration process, expecting Serbia to meet its remaining obligations as it made progress.

If this hadn’t happened, under the weight of expectations on the one side and amid strong resistance to democratization on the other, Serbia would have probably given up on the European integration process altogether.

Following the 2012 elections, when supposedly reformed representatives of the Milošević regime took power, guided by its interests and priorities - one of which was the formal normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo - the international community further lowered the criteria that a candidate country had to meet to obtain EU candidate status.

The idea that Kosovo’s new status was more than Serbia could digest wasn’t unfounded, but the methodology behind the implementation of this decision was wrong. The new government, led by the Vučić – Nikolić – Dačić threesome, was proclaimed reformist and pro-European even before it did anything.

This demoralized the previous factors behind some kind of democratization in Serbia. At the same time it gave the new authorities a green light to overplay the process of normalizing relations with Kosovo both internally and in Serbia’s foreign policy, all the time showing their true authoritarian face.

In mid-2014, as a candidate country awaiting the start of accession negotiations with the EU, Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbia is manifesting all the classic characteristics of Putinization.

There is oppression and control of the media, partisan rather than democratic control of the security system, a dependent judiciary, abuse of intelligence and other information that is supposed to be confidential, an unpredictable foreign policy, centralization of power in the hands of one man parallel with the decomposition of institutions, criminalization of free thinking and a strengthening of the cult of personality.

The Putinization process would have probably taken a similar course in Serbia even without any direct Russian influence. However, in the past year, even before conflict erupted in Ukraine, it became so noticeable in Serbia, and in almost all spheres of social life, that it is fascinating the West did not notice it and take it into account.

It would be dangerous to think that this Putinization process does not enjoy the support of at least the Vučić-Dačić twosome. As for President Tomislav Nikolić, having in mind the frequent antidemocratic character of his statements that are becoming a trend, it is clear that he wants Serbia to end up on the side of Russia.

Dačić and Vučić have done nothing to prevent or condemn these or other phenomena, or send messages from the top about what is socially acceptable and what isn’t, which is almost always the case in Croatia, for example.

What is heard at most are empty phrases, such as, “We condemn every kind of violence”.

However, the rhetoric in the media, starting with the attitude towards political rivals, the glorification of Putin, the presence of non-democratic factors in the media, the criminalization of civil society and everything else could not be possible without the influence of Vučić’s and Dačić’s invisible hand.

To make things more absurd, the implementation of the agreement on normalizing relations with Kosovo is slowing down, although the Serbian side is not only to blame for this.

EU representatives recently visited Serbia to congratulate the new-old team in power and offer support in a tone of voice and a fashion that surprised many, expressing somewhat clearer expectations only as regards economic reform.

The understanding shown by the EU during Ashton’s and Fule’s visit for Serbia’s zigzags and for its refusal to condemn Putin’s aggression against Ukraine - or even impose symbolic sanctions against Russia because of the fear of reprisals over energy - was repaid by Serbia as follows: with the highest honours it welcomed the speaker of the Russian parliament, one of the people under the aforementioned sanctions.

Still, we should not fool ourselves thinking that the EU doesn’t see what the situation in Serbia is really like, even if nothing is shown.

Meanwhile, Serbia under Vučić- Dačić will probably continue to strike a balance between the EU and Russia and between superficial democratization and deeper retrograde processes.

In the coming period, the EU will probably focus more on the European Parliament elections, on the make-up of the new European Commission and even on Kosovo elections, while dealing with the crisis in Ukraine and relations with Russia. It has already made significant political and economic commitment to Serbia and, in return has gotten some kind of a trend towards normalized relations with Kosovo.

However, a more realistic picture of Serbia will reach voters in member countries at some stage, and without their support it won’t be easy for anyone to promote further EU enlargement.

If Serbia does not truly want to move toward the EU, that is its problem, and the EU will not and cannot conduct Serbia’s battles for it. Nor will it repeat its experience with Bulgaria and Romania. This is the real message of the EU’s silence which, I fear, very few in power in Serbia understand.

This is why the ball is in Serbia’s court. Either the true pro-democracy options will wake up and do something, if there are any left, or the Vučić –Dačić twosome will continue their policy of building a more pro-Russian than pro-EU Serbia, and put a full stop to the process of the country’s democratization.
Serbian Central Bank Sees Economic Growth Below 2% in 2015 (Bloomberg, by Gordana Filipovic, 14 May 2014)

Serbian economic growth will slow next year because of the Ukrainian crisis, declining exports and the government’s efforts to curb the budget deficit and public debt.

Growth will fall below the National Bank of Serbia’s February forecast of 2 percent as car, agriculture and crude oil product exports will slow, the Belgrade-based bank said in its quarterly inflation report today. The economy will expand 1 percent this year, after 2.5 percent gain in 2013.

“We will wait to see how things develop, considering that one of the biggest foreign investments, the South Stream, has been slow to materialize because of the geopolitical crisis and developments in Ukraine,” central bank Governor Jorgovanka Tabakovic said at a briefing in Belgrade.

Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, whose government took office on April 27, needs to adopt a series of measures to rein in public spending and narrow the deficit, helping the central bank reassess growth, Tabakovic said.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development sees GDP growth at 1 percent this year and next, the slowest among Balkan nations because of likely “significant spending cuts” and “important trade and investment links with Russia,” it said.

The planned austerity is the key to convince the International Monetary Fund to support the biggest former Yugoslav republic with a new program.

IMF Talks

“We expect them to already come at the end of May so we can continue talks, but it depends on the government when the IMF actually comes to accelerate talks on the new deal,” Tabakovic said. The IMF may want to wait until after the laws are passed in late June, she said.

The government’s consolidated fiscal gap amounted to 7.7 percent of GDP in the first quarter, with 4 percentage points resulting from interest-rate repayments, the governor said. A deal with the IMF would serve as an “additional guarantee to investors that Serbia is pursuing responsible and sustainable economic policy,” Tabakovic said.

There are “no more excuses for Serbia,” Tim Ash, an emerging-markets economist at Standard Bank Plc in London, said in an e-mail. “This will be a key test of whether they are really serious about reform, i.e. whether they sign up on the dotted line to a new program” and “I will turn much less constructive on this credit if they baulk yet again.”

Falling Yields

The yield on Serbian Eurobonds, maturing in 2021, fell 3 basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 4.778 percent by 1:44 p.m. in Belgrade, falling for the 13th straight day to the lowest level in a year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Narodna Banka Srbije cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 9 percent on May 8. It will monitor the Ukrainian crisis’s effect on the country’s risk premium and commodity prices as well as the results of budget cuts and “structural reforms” to gauge the pace of further cuts, she said.

Weak domestic demand will rein in imports, which will help narrow the current-account deficit to “below 4 percent” of economic output this year. The gap, traditionally above 10 percent of gross domestic product, almost halved last year to 5 percent of GDP.

Inflation will stay close to the lower end of the target band of 2.5 percent to 5.5 percent through June, gradually picking up in the second half of 2014. Bank lending shrank 3.4 percent in the first three months of the year as bad loans rose to 22.2 percent from 20.7 percent in December, the bank said.

 

Serbia's central bank says Ukraine crisis, austerity measures to drive future rate cuts (Reuters, 14 May 2014)

BELGRADE - The scope of future Serbian monetary policy easing will be determined by the effects of the Ukrainian crisis and how the government implements its fiscal consolidation measures, a central bank report said on Wednesday.

Serbia's central bank cut benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 9 percent last week on slowing inflation and after the new government pledged to cut spending.

In its quarterly report on inflation the bank said future rate cuts will depend on potential investors' risk aversion caused by crisis in Ukraine as well as on the success of the government's austerity measures.

"The Ukrainian crisis could have negative effects on Serbia through a (external) price rise of energy and food," the bank said. "Also it could cause risk aversion among investors and their decision to reduce exposure in emerging markets."

It said the government's fiscal cuts will hamper domestic demand in 2015 and keep growth below its forecast of 2 percent, but it did not give more precise figure. (Reporting by Ivana Sekularac; Editing by Toby Chopra)

 

Russia Surveys Former Yugoslav Cities Bombed by NATO Uranium Weapons (RIA Novosti, by Ruslan Krivobok, 14 May 2014)

MOSCOW – Experts from the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry have surveyed regions of the former Yugoslavia, including Kosovo, that were bombed by depleted uranium munitions of NATO air forces, a ministry official said Wednesday.

"The task force of the EMERCOM risked their lives to carry out a complex and responsible mission on radiation and chemical examination of the territory of Yugoslavia affected by the NATO bombings, including those with depleted uranium," said Vladislav Bolov, head of the ministry's Antistikhiya center.

The task force, working under the international program Focus, surveyed the grounds and facilities in 14 cities and localities in Serbia, Vojvodina and Kosovo. The results of the survey have not yet been released.

Fifteen years ago, NATO aircraft began bombing the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The NATO military operation was undertaken without the approval of the UN Security Council, rather on the basis of statements by Western countries that Yugoslav authorities were carrying out an ethnic cleansing in Kosovo.

NATO actively used depleted uranium warheads during the bombing campaign. Cluster and high-explosive bombs were also widely used, many of which did not explode and remain buried in the ground today.

In general, the victims of the aggression were civilians. Some 2,500-3,500 people died during the 78 days of continuous air strikes, including 89 children, according to various sources. A further 12,500 people were injured. A total of 1,031 military and police personnel were killed, and 5,000 wounded.

 

Bosnian-Turkish Ties have Room to Grow, says President (Daily Sabah, 15 May 2014)

ISTANBUL — President Abdullah Gül met with his Bosnian counterpart Bakir Izetbegović on Monday to discuss the continuation of a centuries-old relationship between the Republic of Turkey and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The two leaders met in Ankara to discuss the current condition of the ties between the two states and plans for future continuity. Describing the state of affairs between Turkey and Bosnia as "strong and special," Gül said, "Turkey has consistently aided Bosnia and will continue to do so."

Gül went on to say that Turkey and Bosnia currently maintain a trade volume of $400 million (TL 830 million) a year and that Turks invest $145 million in the country annually, however he believes that these figures are not substantial enough. "When we examine the opportunities and potential of the two nations we see how far from satisfactory these numbers are," said Gül. "On the other hand we have organizations like Ziraat Bank, the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency [TİKA], the Yunus Emre Institute and Anadolu Agency that work toward the restoration of cultural heritage, the right of return of those who were displaced [by the war of 1991 to 1995], and economic upheaval to enrich life in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We will do everything in our power to continue these projects and more," he continued.

The meeting between Gül and Izetbegović came a little over a month after Turkish Minister of Economy Ali Babacan stated that Turkey's Eximbank was ready to finance major projects for the building of roads, energy and any infrastructure projects. Eximbank will be following in the steps of Turkish stateowned Ziraat Bank, the first international bank to open lines of credit to Bosnia after the war.

The president of Turkey's union of commerce, Mustafa Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, has also said that Turkish businesses are fully ready to undertake and invest in projects in Bosnia. As president Gül mentioned, TİKA and other Turkish firms have undertaken many projects aimed at restoring Bosnia's cultural heritage sites, many of which were damaged or destroyed during the Bosnian War of independence.

Among these many projects, the most notable are the restorations of historic Ottoman bridges in Konjic; Visegrad, the Sokullu Mehmet Paşa Bridge built by Mimar Sinan; and Mostar - the Stari Most had to be completely refurbished from stones found in the Neretva River after it was struck by three Croatian rockets in 1993.

Turkish investors were also behind the construction of the International University of Sarajevo which opened its doors in 2004. With the Dayton Accords of 1995, which saw Bosnia partitioned into two administrative centers, the Bosniak and Croat Federation of Bosnia and the Serbian Republic of Srpska, possibly coming to an end with a general election this October and as the most critical issue on the agenda, Gül endorsed Bakir Izetbegovic's election campaign. "For the joyful, secure and prosperous future of Bosnia, we will continue to work in close cooperation with my dear friend Bakir Izetbegović as we have until now. I am very happy to host the respected Izetbegovic in Ankara and would like to once again underline that he will be able to continue the strong ties between our two nations in the period to come," stated Gül.

Bakir Izetbegović is the son of Bosnia and Herzegovina's first President Alija Izetbegovic who in Turkey is admired for his scholastic and ideological work and the effort he invested to strengthen the ties between the two states.

 

Macedonia MP's Boycott Faces Parliament With Dilemma (BIRN, by Sinisa Jakov Marusic, 15 May 2014)

The Macedonian opposition's absence from parliament raises questions about whether several key parliamentary commissions can operate.

After Macedonia held a constituent session of the new parliament on Saturday without opposition MPs, legislators from the ruling coalition are mulling how to fill key parliamentary bodies that require opposition MPs' presence.

By law, the heads of two commissions that monitor the work of the secret police and the intelligence agency are drawn from the ranks of opposition MPs. So is the head of the commission on human rights.

But, currently only 88 of the 123 MPs are present and at work, seven of whom come from the opposition Democratic Party of Albanians, DPA.

“This represents a real problem and we are mulling what to do if the opposition remains outside parliament,” one legislator from the ruling VMRO DPMNE party-led coalition told Balkan Insight off the record.

“One option would be to leave these commissions empty, as not many commissions legally require opposition members. Another would be to ask DPA legislators to step in,” he added.

In the case of some other commissions that traditionally are headed by opposition MPs, such as the commission that monitors the state budget, there is no actual legal requirement for an opposition parliamentarian to be in charge.

"It will be a pity not to have opposition MPs in them, but legally we face no obstacle there," the same legislator said.

Speaking after his re-election as speaker of parliament, Trajko Veljanoski on Wednesday said that “parliament's work must not be halted” by the opposition boycott.

He added that he "sincerely" wished opposition MPs would now change their minds and take up their seats.

The opposition Social Democratic Party, SDSM, the Liberal Democrats, LDP, and the New Social Democrats, NSDP, which together won 34 seats, dispute the legitimacy of the April general election result, which they attribute to fraud. The small National Democratic Rebirth party, NDR, which won one seat, takes the same line.

Parliament last Saturday verified the mandates of the opposition MPs despite their previous statement that they would not take up their seats. The MPs now have the option to submit their resignations or simply not attend future sessions.

Insisting that Nikola Gruevski's VMRO DPMNE party won both the April general and presidential elections by fraud, the opposition has demanded the formation of a caretaker government that would prepare the country for new elections.

The SDSM spokesperson, Petre Silegtov, on Wednesday said his party would only return to parliament if the authorities start to process the criminal charges they filed recently against Prime Minister Gruevski and Police Minister Gordana Jankuloska.

“Only then, and after a caretaker government is formed, will the SDSM return to parliament,” Silegov declared.

Earlier this month, the SDSM charged Jankuloska with taking political donations in cash, which is illegal in Macedonia. The party says it has clear evidence that she illegally accepted cash gifts for VMRO DPMNE back in 2006.

Previously, the SDSM filed charges against the Prime Minister as well, accusing him of taking a bribe of €1.5 million to expedite the sale of Makedonska Banka to a Serbian businessman, Jovica Stefanovic, aka “Gazda Nini”, ["Boss Nini"], in 2004.

The opposition produced documents of financial transactions as well as legal papers from Macedonia’s Central Bank that approved the sale of the bank’s shares. The SDSM said the papers contained clear evidence of wrongdoing.

In addition, it released a lengthy telephone recording on which the opposition claimed that Gruevski's voice could be heard discussing the illegal sale.

While the public prosecution insisted it is examining the evidence, the ruling party has rejected any guilt on the part of Gruevski and Jankuloska, insisting the alleged evidence was fabricated by the opposition.