LOCAL PRESS

 

Draft plan for Kosovo and Metohija ready (Novosti)

The proposal for the resolution of the Kosovo status will be a joint project of the government and the Serbian President. The draft of this document has already been shaped, and daily consultations between Tomislav Nikolic and Aleksandar Vucic have already commenced, Novosti has learned. Since there are many indications that Brussels could accelerate the issue of the resolution of the status of Kosovo and Metohija, the Serbian authorities have decided to offer a solution and had already presented some thoughts to international circles. The estimate of the state leadership is that without this Belgrade “offensive”, Serbia would be at a loss with every departure to a new round of the dialogue in Brussels. According to Novosti, the key part of the Serbian proposal will refer to the Union of Serb Municipalities in Kosovo and Metohija. According to diplomatic signals, the intention of the West is for the jurisdiction of the Union to be practically non-existent and to come down to “pencils and coasters”, while Belgrade sees the Union as the most important pillar of the Brussels agreement and the survival of the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija. The core of the problem is that the EU is on the position that the Union should be formed in accordance with the Pristina laws, and this would make the Union a “shell” without jurisdictions  based on which the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija could pass decisions of importance for their lives. Serbia will enter the new difficult diplomatic battle that could politically mark the following year with a firm intention to defend its constitutional decrees that relate to the southern province. The plan for Kosovo and Metohija will represent the “red line” where the offered options can be attributed to the essential autonomy that the Serbian Constitution already envisages. Compared to two years ago when Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic proposed the platform on Kosovo and Metohija that the government revised it later on, the President is now working on the draft, with the consent of the government, which will turn into a parliament platform or declaration.

 

Dacic: Serious preparations for OSCE chairmanship (RTS)

“Serbia, when taking over the OSCE chairmanship next year, should show its seriousness, because everyone is expecting a lot from us,” Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister Ivica Dacic told the evening news of Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS), adding that the OSCE chairmanship is a big challenge for Serbia. “What is more important is the symbolic year - 40 years of the Helsinki Final Act, the then Yugoslavia was one of the founders of the then OSCE, that the first conference after Helsinki was held Belgrade,” Dacic said. “We have made many things in Serbia which seemed impossible - possible, during the two and a half years since the coalition in the changed composition has existed,” he said. “Instead of a country where peace missions are sent to, we are now a country that presides over such an organization,” he said. A Ministerial Council meeting is scheduled for 3 and 4 January, and will bring together 57 foreign affairs ministers. “We will as soon as now create an organizational board, like for the summit with China - it will be a big multilateral gathering that will show that Serbia has changed its international position,” Dacic said. Speaking about how he had understood the objections of the Serbian President that he expects a reaction to the statement of the German Ambassador, Dacic says that diplomacy doesn’t serve to give statements, to conduct a media debate, but it serves to warn about some things without the presence of the public. Accordingly, the Foreign Ministry protects the national interests and in that sense communication with all ambassadors is conducted, demarches, notes and stands on certain issues are issued, explained Dacic. He says that the reception of the German Ambassador with Prime Minister Vucic is already being scheduled, and possibly a date has already been determined. “At this moment, our interest is to protect national interests as much as possible, and at the same time to find the easiest way of communicating and understanding with the big world powers, such as Germany,” said Dacic. Speaking about the strategy for Kosovo and Metohija, Dacic says that the manner in which the Kosovo authorities declared independence is absolutely unacceptable and that it violates all basic principles of international law. In that sense, the dialogue that is conducted in Brussels is neutral in status. Dacic reminds that this was the main principles when the Brussels agreement was signed. “This will be discussed in the following days, our diplomacy is implementing the decisions of the state bodies,” said Dacic. According to him, the opening of Chapter 35 means that there will be certain objections to our legislature at the end of the process. “This has nothing to do with the issue of the preamble and Kosovo, the dialogue continues on 9 February and Serbia will firmly defend its interests,” said Dacic.

 

Kosovo helping Albanians in Presevo (Beta)

The President of the National Council of Albanians in Serbia Jonuz Musliu said that he had spoken with the liaison officer of the Kosovo government in Belgrade Valdet Sadiku. They have discussed the ways in which Kosovo can help to improve the rights of Albanians in Bujanovac and Presevo in the fields of sport, culture and education.  Sadiku for the second time visited Bujanovac. During his visit he had separate meetings with the President and the Mayor of the municipality. In his statement to Beta, Musliu said that in the future he expects the role of Kosovo to be more active especially in the realization of the rights of Albanians living in Presevo and Bujanovac, in southern Serbia. “The meeting was more dedicated to learning and creating a good path for finding a political solution for the Albanians in the Presevo valley,” said Musliu. Musliu, who is also the Chairman of the Municipal Assembly, said that in the future most likely he will perform his function in the municipality on a voluntary basis, and that will be fully committed to the National Council of Albanians on whose leading position he was elected after the National Council elections in October.

 

Stankovic: Albanians’ rights not jeopardized (Radio Serbia, by Jelica Tapuskovic)

The Chairman of the Coordination Body for Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja Zoran Stankovic believes that the rights of the Albanian minority are not jeopardized in Serbia’s south, and can be improved in direct talks of the state bodies and the Albanian leaders. Stankovic says that the facts show a lot has been done, with a lot of legislation that gives rights to the national minorities, and the citizens from that part of the Serbian territory can exercise their rights in line with those regulations. He has confirmed that the Coordination Body is cooperating daily with the representatives of the local self-government on all levels – from the municipal president to delegates and common citizens. Stankovic said that the security situation in this part of Serbia is stable. In an interview with International Radio Serbia, he pointed out that the only problems that occur sporadically are illegal crossing of the administrative line with Kosovo border and the smuggling of drugs and tobacco. The biggest problem is the increasing number of migrants in the second half of 2014, as it happened that some 530 people tried to cross the border in a single week. However, Stankovic says that the security structures, which are functioning flawlessly in these areas, have managed to contain the increase in the number of migrants. Speaking of cooperation with the mayors of Bujanovac, Presevo and Medvedja, Stankovic said that it is excellent, that they communicate and solve problems daily. As he pointed out, this cooperation has resulted in scholarships to students, distribution of grants thanks to which about 230 people found jobs, as well as the building and opening of a department of the Subotica School of Economics in Bujanovac, so that young people could be educated there. Yet there are some who are not satisfied like the president of the National Council of the Albanian national minority who claims that Albanians have no rights in southern Serbia. Stankovic says that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but it must be based on facts, not political or other views. “The fact is that the situation is not ideal, it may be better, but when someone interrupts the conversation when it comes to specific topics, when one demands adoption of any and all proposals, when one constantly sets conditions and rejects dialogue, this points to the weakness of these people who do not have enough understanding to discuss the issues in a decent conversation in order to acquire the rights they believe that they have been denied. We believe that the rights of the Albanian minority are not compromised and that this can be improved in direct talks between the state authorities and Albanian leaders,” said Stankovic. He points that a number of meetings with Albanian leaders in southern Serbia were held in order to solve the existing problems - lack of textbooks, the use of alphabets and languages of national minorities, and that these issues should be resolved in the upcoming period. Also, thanks to a study by the international community, it was determined that we should not only improve the learning of the Serbian language, but that the Albanian students themselves should want to learn the language. Stankovic said that this is why courses of the Serbian language were organized and attended by some 580 young Albanians, and also formed were special classes of the Serbian language in some schools. When it comes to the much discussed formation of the industrial zone in Bujanovac, Stankovic says legislation on foreign investments should improve to make this part of Serbia more attractive to foreign investors. Of the many positive events in this part of Serbia in 2014, Stankovic singled out Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama’s visit to Presevo, during which he told members of the Albanian national minority who live in this part of Serbia that all their problems and needs must be addressed in the agreement and cooperation with Serbian authorities.

 

Thaqi: Kosovo armed forces a necessity (Danas)

We have to continue with the formation of the Kosovo armed forces as small-sized, domestic, inoffensive forces that will operate in line with the Constitution and under full civilian control, Thaqi said in an opinion piece for Danas. The formation of the Kosovo armed forces as a multiethnic component of Kosovo and regional security structure will be based on a strategic assessment of the security sector, which has been carried out in cooperation with NATO partners. The establishment of a formal connection between the Kosovo armed forces and NATO is a priority, and Pristina is working on developing clear guidelines for the partnership for peace membership, underlined Thaqi, adding that this is being done simultaneously with efforts to promote Kosovo’s EU integration process.
Supporting Belgrade-Pristina dialogue a priority for EULEX (Tanjug)

Supporting the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina will be a priority for EULEX next year, EULEX Head Gabriele Meucci has said, expressing satisfaction with the fact that the dialogue will resume as early as February. “EULEX will work on implementation of technical details of the agreement, in particular in the area of the judiciary,” Meucci said in an interview with Tanjug, expressing hope that the mission will succeed in integrating the judiciary in northern Kosovo and establish courts with Serb judges and prosecutors. “We are working together on finding technical solutions for reaching such an agreement - however, integrating two different legal systems is not an easy thing to do, but work on this is under way,” Meucci said. He also said that he is confident that a special court for war crimes committed in Kosovo will be established next year. Meucci said that he has received confirmation from Pristina’s minister of justice that the Kosovo government has prepared a motion to adopt the steps required to set up the court, and that he expects that a law on its jurisdiction will be adopted next year. The court will investigate allegations against individuals - therefore, it will not try groups of people, and it will address sensitive cases - crimes such as crimes against humanity, Meucci said. Speaking about the scandal resulting from alleged corruption within EULEX, Meucci said that he did not expect to face such a crisis just a week or two into his tenure. Meucci said that he has requested help from Brussels and called for the establishment of an independent commission that would investigate the allegations of corruption within EULEX. Considering the position of the EU high representative and the mandate of the independent expert, Meucci expects the investigation to take around four months, possibly ending in March or April next year. The performance of international judges in Kosovo, who have so far passed 566 rulings - including 423 convictions in criminal cases related to corruption, war crimes, organized crime and other sensitive issues - as one of EULEX’s biggest successes in 2014.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Candidate lists for FB&H House of Peoples delivered to election body (Fena)

Candidate lists from Assembly of Sarajevo Canton for delegates to the Federation of B&H (FB&H) parliamentary House of Peoples were delivered to the B&H Central Election Commission (CEC) for verification. That is the necessary additional step towards constituting the Federation House of Peoples. CEC is currently reviewing the material and it will issue its decision at the session, spokesperson of CEC Maksida Piric told Fena. She said the process has already been completed for five cantons, where election results for the House of Peoples have been determined. Those are: Canton 10, Posavina, Central Bosnia, Herzegovina-Neretva and West Herzegovina. Apart from Sarajevo, lists have been verified for the remaining four cantons and they need to elect delegates to the House of Peoples, which the Sarajevo Canton Assembly needs to do once the CEC verifies the Assembly’s candidate lists. Sessions of caucuses of the constitutive peoples were held at the continuation of the constitutive session of the Una Sana Canton Assembly and their presidents were appointed. Members of the Assembly voted with 19 votes in favor and seven were abstained for the new leadership of the Assembly. The New Chairman is Farko Hodzic (Democratic Front) and his deputies are Mirvet Beganovic (Liberal party) and Mladen Lonic (Social Democratic Party). They also voted on the election of members for the House of Representatives in the FB&H Parliament. Mirvet Beganovic was elected from the Croat caucus, Zeljko Mirkovic and Mladen Lonic from the Serb caucus and two Bosniak representatives were elected by secret voting. The Bosniak representatives are Mehmed Mahmic (SDA) and Admir Hadzipasic (A-SDA).

 

The SDA and DF do not yet have a solution for all cantons (Dnevni avaz)

The problems in the constitution of government in the cantons do not subside. The coalition partners SDA and DF have fail to secure a majority in all assemblies, which is the reason why some cantons have not yet elected parliamentary leadership, and proposed the mandate-holders for the constitution of the government and delegates for the House of Peoples of the parliament of the FB&H. Although for tomorrow two sessions were announced, the emergency one and a continuing of the inaugural session of the Assembly of Sarajevo Canton (CS), no one could confirm that they would actually be held. The reason is the lack of a clear parliamentary majority, or to be more exact the fact that the SDA and the DF have not yet found the third collaborator. This means that the delegates for the FB&H House of Peoples from CS or the Chair and the Deputy of the Assembly won’t be known tomorrow either. Members of the parliamentary majority in Bosnia-Podrinje Canton, led by the SDA, postponed the session at which they should elect the delegates for the FB&H House of Peoples, despite the letter received from the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in which they are advised of the delay.

 

Dodik: Serbia’s neutral position in regard to RS joining NATO is dangerous (Tanjug, Banja Luka correspondent)

Milorad Dodik says that the public opinion in the RS is against the NATO, adding that it would be dangerous if Serbia remained neutral while the RS moved toward the NATO. The President of the Republika Srpska (RS) told the Russia-based website lenta.ru that a decision about joining NATO should be made by the people of the RS in a referendum - and that the currently public opinion is against such integration. “That’s logical, if one takes into account a whole range of historical reasons. One of these facts is that the NATO 20 years ago bombed Serbs in Bosnia, and then Serbia,” said Dodik. Noting that Serbia, after the NATO attack in 1999, declared its military neutrality, Dodik said that it wouldn’t be good and it would be a dangerous situation if Serbia maintained its neutral position, while the RS moved towards a membership in the Western Military Alliance. “Another important detail is that one of the main countries that instigate the idea of integrating B&H into NATO is Turkey, which Serbs do not see in a positive light. It is a bad sign,” said the RS President.  In addition, Dodik added, people do not see any benefits of such integration, but only vague promises. According to the media in the Serb entity, he further said that the NATO is not a politically neutral organization while on top of everything, B&H has the problem of complex political relations within the country. “All of this leads to the fact that the public opinion in the RS does not support integration into the NATO,” explained Dodik, stating that he, as president and a politician, must keep that in mind. According to him, it is unclear how beneficial EU integration would be, either, considering that Euro-optimism has declined. “We cannot be an isolated country, we must be integrated. We are to all intents and purposes being forced to integrate into the EU. It is unclear how good that is. It can be said that the level of Euro-optimism is not what it was a few years ago, both here, both in the Union itself. But, nevertheless, that project is still strong,” he added. Commenting on the future of the Serb entity, he said that the key moment was to preserve its autonomy and achieve progress in economic development that would allow a high level of living standards. As for the entity’s political relations with Russia, Dodik said it “understands unconditionally the current political situation and supports the struggle of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian people”.

 

Delineation of Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina was completed: No redrawing of the former republican borders (Radio Sarajevo)

“Delineation and determination of the state border between Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) has been completed and we expect the signing of the Treaty on the state border, thus these two countries of the former SFRY would be the first ones to resolve the border issue,” this was announced by the Montenegrin Ministry of Interior. The reason for the reaction came after the representative in the newly elected House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of B&H Denis Becirovic submitted a resolution on the Sutorina, with consideration that Sutorina should belong to the B&H. The Montenegrin Ministry of Interior reminds that the known position of the international community from 1992 is that there is no redrawing of the former republican borders. “The internationally recognized borders of states created on the territory of the former Yugoslavia are former republican borders. Negotiations on the demarcation, establishing the state border and preparations for the conclusion of a treaty on the state border between Montenegro and B&H, began in October 2008 and ended in May 2014,” reads the statement by the Ministry of Interior of Montenegro. The Ministry of Interior of Montenegro pointed out that the protocol on the determination of tri-border points, which was signed in Sarajevo, on 2 October 2003, identifies tri-border points in northern and southern border triangle between Montenegro, Serbia and B&H and between the Montenegro, B&H and the Croatia. “The Government of Montenegro, at its session held on 12 June 2014 and on the proposal of the Ministry of Interior, has adopted a report on the process of negotiations and preparations for the conclusion of the state border between Montenegro and B&H and accepted the proposal of this agreement, by which the Montenegro completed internal legal procedures required for the signing of this Agreement. The Commission for the border of Montenegro and B&H will form a joint working body, which is in charge of carrying out the marking of the state border on the ground that is established by this Agreement. Also, the B&H Council of Ministers on its 111^th session held on 6^th of November 2014, established the proposal of the State Border Treaty between Montenegro and B&H, and now the Treaty on the border has been sent for further proceedings by the B&H Presidency. After the procedure by the B&H Presidency is completed, conditions for the signing of this Agreement are created, followed by a confirmation or ratification of the Treaty with the aim of entry into force,” says the Montenegro Ministry of Interior. They also reminded that the senior state officials of the B&H have confirmed that there was nothing disputable in regard of determining the border between Montenegro and B&H.

The member of the newly elected House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of B&H Denis Becirovic sent the resolution on Sutorina in to an official Parliamentary procedure.

 

Bosnian radical Islamic leader indicted for terrorism Bilal Bosnic (Dalje.com)

The B&H State Prosecutor’s Office on Thursday brought terrorism charges against Husein Bosnic, informal leader of radical Islamists in the country who was arrested in a large-scale police operation in September. Bosnic (42), also known as Bilal, is charged with publicly inciting to terrorist activities and recruiting for a terrorist group. He serves as an imam in Buzim village near the northwestern town of Bihac. In 2013 and 2014, as a member of the so-called Salafi community, organized outside the official institutions of the Islamic community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, he propagated Islamic radicalism in several communities in the country, including Velika Kladusa and Gornja Maoca near Brcko, and knowingly encouraged people to join terrorist organizations, according to the indictment. The indictment alleges that acting on his encouragement a number of Salafis, citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have joined Islamic State fighters in Syria and Iraq, committing various acts of terrorism. Some of them have been killed in war zones in the two countries, while others have remained involved in the activities of that terrorist organization and pose a threat to Bosnia and Herzegovina because on their return to the country they undergo further training in preparation for terrorism. The State Prosecutor’s Office said that it would continue investigating and prosecuting citizens of B&H fighting abroad because they posed a danger both to B&H and global security. Bosnic is the first person to be indicted based on the amended Criminal Code of B&H, which provides for legal penalties against citizens who travel abroad to fight in foreign armed forces or incite others to do so. According to Bosnian police agencies, at least 150 citizens have joined terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq in recent months, mostly fighting on the side of the Islamic State and the al-Nusra Front.

 

B&H and Turkey signed agreement on military and financial cooperation (Oslobodjenje)

Zekerijah Osmic, B&H minister of defense, on behalf of the Council of Ministers signed in Sarajevo an agreement on military and financial cooperation and implementation protocol for financial assistance between the Council of Ministers and the Turkish government. Cihad Erginay, ambassador of the Republic of Turkey, and Major Musa Saglik, Turkey’s deputy military attaché in B&H, and colleagues participated in the signing. Turkey for several years now has offered significant support to the B&H Armed Forces (OSB&H) with the aim of improving the operability of the OSB&H, and in 2014 allocated about €354,000, the B&H Ministry of Defense confirmed. Of this amount, €290,000 will be available to purchase goods and services from Turkish companies, primarily Turkish defense contractors. With the agreement, methods and modalities of cooperation and assistance in the field of defense are defined, which Turkey has continually ensured for the Ministry of Defense and OSB&H from their formation to now. The signed agreement will be forwarded from Minister Osmic via the diplomatic path to Turkey, and will be signed by Ismet Yilmaz, Turkey’s minister of defense, on behalf of the Turkish government. Ambassador Erginay said that they will have the opportunity from next year to realize the powers that are within the scope of this agreement. “The agreement is one that will expand our avenues of cooperation in a defense sense and in other fields. So we will have many more opportunities to establish and develop cooperation that exists between our two countries,” explained Erginay. Minister Osmic said that the donation is not the only one, nor the only form of cooperation between B&H and Turkey. As he said, from the B&H Presidency they have gotten the opportunity to proceed with realization even before the official ratification.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Serbia approves job-cutting 2015 budget to win IMF deal (Reuters, by Aleksandar Vasovic

25 December 2014)

BELGRADE, After 19 hours of debate, Serbia's parliament adopted a 2015 budget early on Thursday intended to slash spending on pensions and unprofitable public industries to secure an IMF loan. The budget targets a consolidated deficit at 231.9 billion dinars (1.9 billion euros), or around 6 percent of national output. It was drafted in line with a 1-billion-euro loan deal with the International Monetary Fund and sets revenues at 924.4 billion dinars and expenditures at 1.11 billion. The deficit, which reached more than 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014, includes spending by municipalities and some state-run firms. The Serbian dinar gained 0.6 percent after the adoption of the budget, trading around 121.1 per euro at 0950 GMT, and dealers said investors would take some reassurance that the government was finally acting to slim down the role of the state. This should also help Serbia, which struggled to shed pariah status for almost a decade after the wars of the 1990s that broke up the former Yugoslav republic, in its efforts to join the European Union. It has failed to attract significant foreign investments, apart from a Fiat car factory, during years when governments allowed murky privatisations and failed to cut bureaucracy and tackle corruption. The unemployment rate is 25 percent. The 2015 budget sets borrowing at 706.6 billion dinars, partly to cover the costs of closing down loss-making state-run firms and shedding jobs in the bloated public sector. The general government deficit is seen at 4 percent of GDP. For the first time, it will include spending on sovereign guarantees for state companies that were previously listed as non-budgeted spending. The budget could prove a landmark, said Sasa Djogovic, an economist with the Belgrade-based Institute for Market Research (IZIT). "It is a major swing from previous budgets as it targets problematic spots in the economy, namely the public sector," he said, but warned the pace of reform posed significant economic and political risks. During the debate, marred by bickering between opposition deputies and the parliamentary majority led by the centre-right Serbian Progressive Party, Finance Minister Dusan Vujovic said the budget should allow the country to emerge from crisis. "This budget demonstrates responsible fiscal policies," he said. It could mean cutting up to 27,000 jobs in the public sector, of which about a third will come from redundancies in pursuit of 600-650 million euros ($735-795 million) in savings. Serbia's economy is in recession and is seen contracting 2 percent this year mainly due to devastating floods in May which inflicted over 1.5 billion euros of damage. It is forecast to contract 0.5 percent next year. As part of the 2015 budget, the government plans to cut most of its financial support, amounting to around one billion euros a year, to hundreds of loss-making state enterprises. In its three-year deal with the IMF, Serbia pledged to save 1.3 billion euros by 2017 to cap its public debt, pushing 70 percent of GDP this year. As the first step, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic's government has already cut some pensions and public sector salaries from Nov. 1. (Reporting by Aleksandar Vasovic; Editing by Jeremy Laurence/Ruth Pitchford)

 

Bosnians March Toward EU Border Seeking Employment (AP, 24 December 2014)

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina — Nearly 200 employees of Bosnian factories that have closed, leaving them without pay for more than a year, are marching toward Croatia in the hope of getting jobs there. The workers left their mostly Muslim city of Tuzla in northern Bosnia on a journey of 77 kilometers (47 miles) to the Croatian border. Croatia, a European Union country, is more prosperous than Bosnia, where unemployment is more than 40 percent. Bosnia's transition to capitalism and a market economy, which began two decades ago, included the privatization of state-owned factories, but many of them have gone bankrupt. Existing laws prevent many of the workers from being laid off, but they often don't get paid.

 

Struggling Croatia heads to the polls (AFP, 26 December 2014)

Zagreb - Croatia's piano playing president Ivo Josipovic is tipped to lead the field when voters in the European Union's newest member vote on Sunday, as the country struggles with severe economic crisis. Josipovic, a popular politician and former law professor who won office on an anti-corruption ticket, famously played Beethoven's "Ode to Joy" when Croatia joined the EU in 2013 hoping membership would revive its flagging economy. A poll released days before Sunday's vote showed the centre-left incumbent backed by 46.5% support, followed by conservative candidate Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, with 34.9%. Though the president has limited powers -- running the country is primarily left to the government -- the election is seen as a key test for Croatia's political parties ahead of parliamentary contests in late 2015. With the centre-left government blamed for failing to revive the economy, Grabar-Kitarovic's opposition HDZ party is likely to gain considerable backing. But with neither of the two top candidates expected to win more than 50%, a run-off round on 11 January is likely. Josipovic -- the third president of the former Yugoslav republic since independence in 1991 -- is a member of Croatia's Social Democrats (SDP), the main partner in the ruling coalition. Critics say the soft-spoken 57-year-old intellectual doesn't clearly articulate his stance on major issues and failed to push the government to seriously battle economic decline. But Josipovic has taken firmer stances on issues in the months ahead of the election, pledging in particular to initiate pressing constitutional changes. "Constitutional changes .... are the condition for implementation of economic reforms. Without reforming the state, administration and judiciary there will be no economic recovery," he said.

Extremely poor economic situation

Though still personally popular, Josipovic's standing has dropped as the now widely unpopular SDP-led government of Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic has struggled to revive the economy.

"The main burden for Josipovic is an extremely poor economic situation in the country, for which the SDP is responsible," political analyst Zarko Puhovski told AFP. The small Adriatic nation of 4.2 million had expected EU membership would stimulate growth, notably through the use of potential financial aid from Brussels. But Croatia remains one of the bloc's weakest economies and it is now entering its sixth year of recession. Unemployment is close to 20%, half of the country's youth are jobless and public debt is close to 80% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is overly dependent on tourism. The government has failed to address structural weakness by reforming the huge and inefficient public sector, improving the investment climate and trying to attract EU funds. A victory for Grabar-Kitarovic would further boost the position of the HDZ, currently the most popular party, in next year's parliamentary vote. Grabar-Kitarovic, who represents moderates within HDZ, is a former foreign and European affairs minister and an ex-Nato assistant secretary general. During the campaign the 46-year-old, who holds a master’s degree in political science, slammed Josipovic over lack of initiative for tackling economic hardship. "Can you remember what he did for his country, or what any of his important views are?" she asked, claiming he had "wasted the last five years in Croatia". But as a woman, Grabar-Kitarovic might lack support from traditional HDZ voters, and analysts warn she showed a lack of knowledge regarding real presidential powers. Croatia's president, elected for a five-year term, co-ordinates foreign policy with the government and is supreme commander of the armed forces. The other two candidates, whose chances according to polls are very slim, are rightist Milan Kujundzic and activist Ivan Vilibor Sincic. The latter, a 24-year-old student pledging to "liberate Croatia from tycoons and bankers who robbed it," has been the main surprise of the campaign. Opinion polls show the political new-comer might come in third by mobilising voters disappointed in political elites and wanting a change.

 

Analysis of Montenegro: Bumps on Road to Brussels (BIRN, by Dusica Tomovic, 26 December 2014)

Growing friction with the EU, arguments over an expensive highway and the controversial reports of a newspaper dominated the agenda in 2014

As membership negotiations with the EU become more complex and Brussels set up challenging requirements for Podgorica to fulfill, euro-skepticism rose in Montenegro in 2014 and criticism of the EU's enlargement policy was heard for the first time from top officials. Recent research has shown that only 48 per cent of citizens support joining the EU, compared to 72 per cent back in 2009. Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic in October went as far as saying that Montenegro might terminate its negotiations with Brussels. After the European Commission 2014 Progress Report on Montenegro, released in October, criticized Podgorica's performance in the fight against organized crime and corruption, Djukanovic invoked the example of Iceland, which last year suspended negotiations to join the EU. The EU Progress Report on Montenegro mentioned a formal mechanism called an "overall balance clause", which can be activated to stop negotiations with a candidate country that "does not show enough progress in key areas”. "The balance clause is something that has not been brought into the negotiating framework so far... But the candidate country has the right, as Iceland did, to say: ‘Sorry, I do not like this company anymore," Djukanovic said. Membership of NATO remained a top government priority, meanwhile, although only 35 per cent of citizens support the plan. In September, NATO decided against offering membership of the military alliance this year, saying it would reconsider Montenegro’s bid in 2015. NATO said Montenegro needed to implement "profound reforms" in the security and intelligence services and secure greater public support as key conditions for membership. Some analysts said weaknesses inside the intelligence agency were a key reason for Montenegro not receiving an invitation to join NATO in September. The head of Montenegro's intelligence service unexpectedly resigned in December. Experts said pressure from the EU and NATO forced Djukanovic to replace the head of the intelligence agency.

"Informer" causes a furor:

The so-called «Informer» scandal broke in July after the Montenegrin edition of the Belgrade-based daily newspaper released a video recording, which it said offered proof that human rights activist Vanja Calovic, the director of the prominent NGO MANS, had sexual relations with her two dogs.

The newspaper published front-page stories in both Serbia and Montenegro asking readers to investigate whether Calovic was featured in the video. MANS' work on corruption, organized crime and on the misuse of state funds has brought it into conflict with the government, which accuses it of political bias. It particularly angered the authorities in recent months by publishing reports and audio recordings, which it claimed provided proof of serious wrongdoing by Prime Minister Djukanovic’s governing Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS. Montenegro's Basic Court banned distribution of four editions of Informer with inflammatory content but four months later the paper released a new video recording, again calling on readers to "figure out themselves" whether they could recognize Calovic as the person engaged in sexual acts.  The US embassy, the EU delegation in Podgorica and a number of international watchdogs and local NGOs condemned Informer's reporting as "irresponsible and improper". The speaker of parliament, Ranko Krivokapic, in October admitted that the state had proven unable to stop foreign media on the territory of Montenegro from using hate speech.

Aluminum plant still a burden:

Although the government in mid-2014 managed to find buyer for the bankrupt aluminum plant KAP, one of the biggest burdens on the Montenegrin economy in the last two decades, the fate of the company was not clear. Once the largest factory in Montenegro, employing thousands of workers, it was sold in June to a local company for 28 million euros. The new owner promised to bring in outside investment to a company that fell into bankruptcy last October, by which time it owed around 360 million euros. The government still has to deal with over 100 million euros in bank guarantees issued for a loan for the former owner, the Cyprus-based company CEAC, owned by Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska. The biggest problem for Podgorica was the fact that in early 2014, CEAC launched international arbitration, seeking 700 million euros in compensation from Montenegro. In December, it increased the compensation demand to 910 million euros. CEAC, which ran KAP from 2008 to 2013, claimed that the government had interfered with the investment process, causing major damage to the company and subsequent losses. The government dismissed the allegations as baseless and Minister of Economy Vladimir Kavaric in September claimed that the aluminum plant had ceased to be a national problem.

Arguments over highway:

The announcement that construction of a long promised highway could start in 2015 raised hopes for the economy. Considered the most important capital project in recent history, the government promised the greatest possible employment of local labor in a project worth more than 2 billion euros. The highway will link the capital, Podgorica, to the underdeveloped northern region. However, construction of the highway will add new financial burdens to the country. In October, the government signed a credit agreement with China's Exim Bank worth 687 million euros. The loan was the key condition for the start of construction of the highway that has been entrusted to Chinese companies. Opposition parties and some civil society groups expressed concern that the cost of the highway could bankrupt the state budget and that the government's goal of connecting the undeveloped north and the more advanced south were nothing but propaganda. They urged the government to publish all studies, evaluations and reviews of relevant financial institutions that have been carried out in connection with the Bar-Boljare highway. Under the agreement with the government, the Chinese companies engaged in the construction of the priority Smokovac-Matesevo section will not pay any taxes or customs duties for the import of materials and equipment.

Row with Russia hits tourism:

For the first time this year, the tourism authorities did not publish official data on the number of Russian tourists who visited Montenegro in summer, a figure which the government has often used in the past to boast of the success of national tourism policy since independence was restored in 2006. Once the most numerous foreign tourists in the country, the number of Russians staying in Montenegro evidently dropped this summer after Podgorica in May supported the package of Western and EU sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine. The shaken state of Russian-Montenegrin relations was not the only reason for deserted-looking beaches in June and July. Floods in the region and bad weather contributed to the drop in tourism income in 2014. Montenegro's Tourist Association, MTA, also warned that Montenegro was becoming too expensive and blamed infrastructure problems and pricey airline tickets for this year's disappointing figures. "To attract more tourists, the authorities need to do more to promote the country. Montenegro is still an unrecognized destination worldwide," the MTA's head, Zarko Radulovic, told BIRN in September.