LOCAL PRESS

 

Aleksandar Vucic: Too early to talk about solution for Kosovo (Tanjug)

Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said that it is "too early to talk about a comprehensive solution to the Kosovo and Metohija issue." He also added he was "in a constant contact with Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic in this regard." "There are countless interpretations of the Brussels agreement, and difficult talks in difficult conditions are ahead of us," Vucic said, commenting on the continuation of the EU-brokered dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina on the implementation of the agreement reached in Brussels on February 9. Vucic told Belgrade TV Prva on Saturday evening that we should first see how things are developing, since life is a dynamic category, and added that he is in a constant contact with the Serbian president and that he believes that a solution will be reached. Commenting on the economy, he told the broadcaster there was “very good future ahead of Serbia," while citizens would "feel an improvement in 2016."

"We are working for the future and the results will become visible by May 2016. We have to work in a responsible manner and everyone in Serbia, including myself, has to change, work and earn as much as one deserves," Vucic said. He said that economic experts in the country and abroad have positively assessed the government's measures aimed at reducing the budget deficit and public debt, and said that Serbia is on the right track. Vucic said that he will continue to make efforts to implement the austerity measures, stressing that good result can be achieved only through hard work. Future generations will be grateful to me, although I am sure that at this point 70 to 80 percent of people have understanding for and stand ready to support what we do, said Vucic.

The prime minister said that the budget savings measures have brought cuts only for 40 percent of pensions and 80 percent of wages in the public sector. The austerity measures have reduced pensions amounting over RSD 25,000 by ten percent on average, and salaries in the public sector since November last year. The prime minister said that Serbia will exit recession, if it manages to successfully sell the majority of shares in the public enterprise Zelezara Smederevo (Iron Works Smederevo), and if it continues to renew production in thermal power plants and coal production following the great floods that hit Serbia last spring.

 

Wilhelm: The opening of the chapter after the February meeting (Tanjug)

German Ambassador to Serbia Heinz Wilhelm said that the meeting in February, could result in an opening of the first chapter, but as he said, before that, in Brussels, the Serbian and Kosovo side will have to resolve some important issues of the Brussels Treaty. Wilhelm, in his statement for TV B92 said that the opening of the first chapter depends on Serbia’s progress in regard to chapter 35, which speaks of the full implementation of the Brussels Treaty. "The dialogue will continue in February. The last meeting between Pristina and Belgrade was in March 2014. You as a state are not to blame for that, but a lot of time has been lost," commented Wilhelm. He then added that the meeting in February could result in an opening of the first chapter, but before that in Brussels the two sides need to resolve some important issues from Brussels Treaty. "After that, the opening of the first chapter would be realistic," said Wilhelm. According to him, all in Europe have an interest that the Western Balkans led by Serbia join the EU, because it would stabilize the region and allow unimpeded process of trade and facilitate the cooperation among countries in the region. Speaking of Serbia's OSCE presidency, the German Ambassador said that Serbia could be a bridge between the two sides, perhaps even a mediator in the conflict during its chairmanship of the OSCE and stressed that Serbia doesn’t have to choose between Serbia and the EU.

 

EU accession "depends on Serbia's progress" (Vecernje novosti)

Opening of first chapters in EU accession negotiations with Serbia is the first goal, but the success and speed of the process will depend on Serbia's progress. This is according to Latvian FM Edgars Rinkevics, who currently chairs the EU Council of Ministers as Latvia on January 1 took over EU's rotating six months presidency. Rinkevics told the Belgrade-based daily Vecernje Novosti that the key to the progress were implementation of action plans relating to fundamental rights and justice, as well as further progress in reforms, especially in ensuring the rule of law, "and continued dialogue with Kosovo." "Latvia expects that Serbia and Kosovo will continue to work on further normalization of relations on all levels, as both parties have agreed in the Brussels Agreement in April 2013. The dialogue at a high level after the forming of the government in Kosovo should be continued in the near future, in order to accelerate implementation of existing agreements," said Rinkevics. He added that there was "no change with respect to the objectives of the dialogue" and that the process, as envisaged in the negotiating framework, should lead to "a comprehensive normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo." Stating that Latvia, during its presidency of the EU, will "do everything possible to assist in the achievement of progress in European integrations," Rinkevics pointed out that "the pace of integration can be accelerated if the citizens of Serbia and its politicians pay attention to the fact that, regardless the fact that Serbia is already a candidate for membership, it is important to at this time adjust to the attitudes that are part of the common EU foreign policy." "This could be 'painful', but it is still necessary. And so is the issue of common European values and beliefs in support of democracy and the rule of law," said Rinkevics.

According to him, the EU enlargement process is "a priority" for the Latvian presidency "in the broader context of strengthening the role of the EU as a global actor." He said he was "glad that the Western Balkan countries are moving forward in the process of European integration."

"Each country has its own rhythm, but the process of approaching the EU and its values and gradual integration of policies, is a positive trend. In this regard, I particularly appreciate the commitment of the society and the government in Serbia to negotiations and internal reform process over the past year," said Rinkevics. He stressed that "enlargement is the most important and most powerful tool in promoting EU reforms in the candidate countries", but reiterated that the pace with each country advances depends on the fulfillment of conditions. "We will consider it a success if during our presidency further progress of reforms in the Western Balkans has been facilitated, and if we are able to open the first negotiation chapters with Serbia," concluded Rinkevics, who announced that he would visit Serbia "in the coming months."

 

Tanja Miscevic: Dialogue continuation brings opening of Chapter 35 (Beta, TV Pink)

Tanja Miscevic said on Monday that she expects that Chapter 35 on Kosovo will be opened shortly after the continuation of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. "After one or two rounds of the dialogue on normalization of the relations with Pristina, which will be held at the highest political level, I expect that Chapter 35 on Kosovo will be opened, and this will include monitoring of everything that was agreed in Brussels," Miscevic told the Belgrade-based TV Pink. The implementation of the Brussels agreement we reached in April 2013 is actually a proof of credibility, a confirmation that we can implement what we agree on, said Miscevic. She noted that this agreement was the basis for the agreements on the police, judiciary, and integrated management of the administrative line between Serbia proper and its southern province of Kosovo. The ultimate goal of the EU-brokered dialogue in Brussels is full normalization of the relations between Belgrade and Pristina, said Miscevic. However, the agreement on stabilization and association did not define the meaning of comprehensive normalization, she said, adding that this should be explained in the continuation of the dialogue in Brussels. Miscevic also said that drafting of action plans is underway for Chapter 23 (Justice and Human Rights) and Chapter 24 (Justice, Freedom and Security), which should be fully accepted in the first half of this year. "At the same time, we are working on opening a few more chapters," said Miscevic. Jadranka Joksimovic, the Serbian minister in charge of European integration, said on Sunday the Belgrade-Pristina political dialog would resume early in February. According to her, the opening of chapters in EU membership talks would follow. Jovanovic said picking up the Belgrade-Pristina dialog was very important as any doubts about the implementation of the Brussels deal would finally be settled, the Beta agency reported. "Chapter 35, on the implementation of the Brussels agreement, was in a way a kind of political condition to open that chapter as one of the first, in the early stages of the negotiations," she said. According to her, "the Brussels agreement reflects the reality that the EU has understood and accepted the fact that Serbia has not recognized an independent Kosovo, just like we (Serbia) must accept the fact that numerous states have recognized it." Joksimovic said the Brussels deal had been the best possible solution, adding that carrying it out was obligatory to Pristina too.

 

Jim Seroka: 2015 year of challenges and opportunities for Serbia (Tanjug)

Attracting foreign investments and withstanding pressures during its OSCE chairmanship in 2015 will be the biggest challenges for Serbia, says Jim Seroka, a professor of political science at the US Auburn University, adding that the year also holds promise for Serbia. "For the first time in decades, Serbia enters a new year free from the polarised international and domestic political struggles that had crippled progress in the past;" Seroka said in a statement to Tanjug.

"For the most part, the Serbian political leaders are laying a foundation that may lead to the community search for solutions and pragmatic approaches to problems rather than the disparagement of one another and the debilitating competition to assign blame," Seroka said.

"The commitment to the democratic process, principle of equality under the law, and the protection of human and individual rights, while under strain, now appears secure and unlikely to be reversed," he said. Speaking about Serbia's European path, Seroka said that "2015 will probably not record substantial progress or major setbacks in Serbia's quest for membership in the European Union. The stagnating economies of Europe and the recent growth of the Euro-sceptic movements strongly suggest that the European Commission and member nations will not push to expand membership to Serbia or any other state in the near future. However, Serbia's successful initiatives to indicate a desire to cooperate with the EU, particularly regarding Kosovo, argue that the EU will not undertake initiatives to reverse its pledges to eventually welcome Serbia as a member," he said.

"Serbia's challenges are to find ways to attract substantial foreign investment in the Serbian economy, promote a clean and secure energy policy, and to avoid taking sides in the growing conflict between Russia and many members of the transatlantic community," Seroka said. Serbia's OSCE chairmanship "provides substantial risks as well as opportunities for peace and security in Europe," he noted. "The risks stem from difficulties in withstanding the growing pressures on Serbia and the OSCE to take sides in the conflict between the EU and Russia," he said.

"The opportunities, however, include the potential for Serbia to provide leadership in the OSCE which steers Europe from an intensification of the mutual mistrust and hostility that has characterised relations during the past year, and to provide a forum in which the smaller states of Europe can work together to find a solution and process that rebuilds trust and cooperation," the US professor concluded. Serbia will continue its EU integration, but it will be more focused on internal economic issues than the foreign policy, senior visiting fellow in the European Institute of the London School of Economics Dimitar Bercev has told Tanjug. He sees Serbia still focused mainly on itself in 2015 and believes internal issues, like the national budget, unemployment and government companies, will be far more important that the foreign policy. EU integration will continue at a normal pace and the talks between Belgrade and Pristina will resume, he stated, adding that he was not certain that some important steps could be expected. Serbia's chairmanship within the OSCE is a good opportunity for the country, especially now that Russia has entered a financial crisis and is under pressure to compromise with with western countries, Becev pointed out. That process will not go through the OSCE, but it could have a positive influence on the situation in eastern Ukraine, he noted. The OSCE remains the only international organisation Moscow accepts as a mediator and forum for multilateral diplomacy in the effort to put an end to the crisis, the Bulgarian analyst concluded. The pace of the accession talks between Serbia and the EU will probably not be fast in 2015, because of Kosovo and the fact that the hardest chapters will be opened at the very start, while Belgrade faces an even harder task of balancing between the EU and Russia during its chairmanship of the OSCE, British expert for the Balkans James Ker-Lindsay has said. After a very important formal start of the talks in January 2014, there is visible focus in opening some chapters in 2015, but there will probably be no fast progress there because of two reasons, one being progress in the adoption of the EU acquis and the establishment of the rule of law and the other the Kosovo issue, he stated. The EU has made it clear that its priority is the harmonization of Serbia's legislation with that of the EU and the establishment of the rule of law and that it is why it wants to start the talks with chapters 23 and 24, which will then remain open until the very end of the talks, he noted. This is an area where Serbia, like the other countries of the region, will have to work hard to get results, he pointed out. The second reason why he thinks Serbia will not progress rapidly in EU integration is Kosovo. In order to join the EU, a country must prove that it can implement all of the EU legislation in its entire territory, and Serbia cannot do that, although it claims sovereignty over Kosovo, it has no control of the territory, he underscored. The EU will not offer a path for Serbia that would signify that it in fact considers Kosovo a part of Serbia, so a mechanism will instead be found that will take into account the situation in Kosovo, but that will not require Serbia to recognize Kosovo formally as an independent country, he remarked. Ker-Lindsay admits that it is far more complicated that people can imagine, and that he is not sure if Serbia and the EU have a clear vision of how to address the problem. If no answer for Kosovo is found, Serbia's EU integration could encounter significant delays, he said. “The country also faces challenges regarding its chairmanship of the OSCE”. Belgrade is under considerable pressure to start bringing its policy towards Russia in line with the EU's, he explained. Serbia, as the country holding the OSCE chairmanship, will undoubtedly want to be an important part of the efforts to improve the dialogue between Russia and the west and it will have to be accepted as an honest and independent intermediary in order to achieve that, he feels. According to Ker-Lindsay, this does not mean that things will be simple for Serbia, and it will involve a lot of balancing. Belgrade could find it a lot harder than before to maintain that balance in its foreign policy, he stated.

 

Families of the victims from Kosovo: UNMIK ignored organ trafficking (Tanjug)

The Association of Families of kidnapped and murdered in Kosovo and Metohija fully supports the Advisory Committee for Human Rights chaired by Marek Novicki, because, as stated in the press release, it has been proven that the UNMIK mission failed to conduct an effective investigation in cases involving the trafficking of human organs. "Families of the victims in this report see, may be, the last chance for some kind of justice for the Serbian victims," reads the statement of The Association of Families of kidnapped and murdered in Kosovo and Metohija. The association claims that for year’s facts have been hidden and there has been a silence about human organ trafficking in Albania and that many from NATO, KFOR, UNMIK, are the accomplices of crimes against Serbs. "The proof of this is in the report of the Advisory Committee for Human Rights, where it has been stated that the abducted and kidnapped Serbs, civilians, policemen and soldiers were imprisoned in the American base "Bondsteel”, reads the statement of The Association of Families of kidnapped and murdered in Kosovo and Metohija. Families of the victims have asked that they be answered whether the abducted Serbs are still at the same prison, whether it is right, as they say, that the leaders of the KLA are to be "Prime Ministers, Presidents and the Ministers of the so-called Republic of Kosovo". "At the cost of our own lives we will seek the accountability of NATO, KFOR, UNMIK, EULEX, which are responsible for the lives of our loved ones by Security Council Resolution 1244," said the association.

 

Milorad Linta: Cynical decision to raise indictments against Serbs (Tanjug)

Miodrag Linta, president of the Coalition of Refugee Associations, urged Croatia to create the political and professional conditions for punishing numerous crimes against Serbs during the war in the nineties claiming that it is a cynical decision to raise indictments against Serbian citizens from Glina for the murder of Croatian civilians in 1991. The District Prosecutor's Office in Zagreb announced on December 30 that it has raised an indictment against two Serbs - the wartime commander of the Territorial defence unit in Glina and unit members for the murder of a Croat civilian in October, 1991. The decision by the Croatian Prosecution's Office is cynical, because many crimes against Serbs remain unpunished, Linta said, stressing that indictments have not been issued still against those who ordered and committed the mass murder of Serb refugees on the road Glina-Donji Zirovac-Dvor in August, 1995. The first killings of Serbs took place in Glina on August 6, and then in the villages of Roviska, Ravno Rasce, Maja and Brubanj in the Glina municipality, while a footage was made of the crimes against unarmed Serbs on the road near Donji Zirovac by members of the B&H Army, which at that time performed joint actions with the Croatian army, reads the statement. According to the data of the Veritas association, nearly 400 Serbs were killed in a refugee column from Glina to Dvor within three days, from August 6 to 8, 1995, while in the entire former UN Sector North (Kordun and Banija), 721 Serbs lost their lives, including 441 civilians, 403 of whom were female. Linta said that Croatia has double standards in practice regarding war crimes - they are far harsher for Serbs and far milder for Croats, while crimes against Serbs are still considered a heroic act. This is just one of the reasons why Croatia has absolutely no right to lecture Serbia about meeting standards in terms of democracy, human rights and the rule of law, reads the statement.

 

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Dodik: Joint statement leads to centralization (Srna)

Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik stated on Sunday that the proposed text of joint statement by the B&H Presidency pledging the commitment of the country’s political leaders to the necessary reforms in the EU accession process represents a significant step toward the centralization of B&H and thus cannot receive support from RS.

“RS cannot accept the logics of political Sarajevo attempting at centralizing B&H. This statement, which was sent by B&H Presidency Chairman Mladen Ivanic, represents an absolutely significant step toward the centralization of B&H,” said Dodik, upon being asked to comment on the proposed text of joint statement by the B&H Presidency pledging the commitment of the country’s political leaders to the necessary reforms in the EU accession process. Dodik emphasized that, irrespective of all attempts at hiding behind the EU, the opportunity was missed to carry out an internal dialogue on the issue. “Since there has been no dialogue, nobody can expect that we from RS will follow the reasoning of Ivanic and Mladen Bosic in Sarajevo, as we have realized that their reasoning is very clever,” Dodik emphasized. He concluded that it is obvious there were many speculations in connection even with the process of the preparation of this statement.

“When we discussed this with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, she said that the Presidency had proactively offered to do this, which proves that Ivanic, who is trying to put on some other show, speaks untruth. He has told federal media that nothing was said during Mogherini’s visit and that I kept silent. Obviously, I was the only one to speak about the only manner in which this could be done,” said Dodik. He says he does not want to argue with Ivanic, who, together with Bosic, obviously is trying to create an atmosphere convenient for acceptance of this, while this statement contains a series of unacceptable things relating to economy, and obligations of other institutions of authority, which the Presidency is not authorized to propose. “Even the whole concept in connection with this had come as a proposal from Sarajevo circles, to which Ivanic and Bosic belong, to have a statement of this kind adopted at the parliament. This is the first attempt, in line with pro-bosnian politics of Bosic and Ivanic, to re-affirm the role of and give more significance to B&H institutions than they really have,” President of RS warned. As he said, the statement prepared by Ivanic contains many unacceptable elements, much more than necessary, and much more than Europe had asked for.

“It tells us that Ivanic had given in, as he consciously, together with Bakir Izetbegovic, packed this statement with various unacceptable stances, from economy to the implementation of the Growth Agreement which is related to the protests in the Federation of B&H (FB&H), and these protests haven’t happened in RS, and in this respect RS did not have the obligation to accept such a thing,” Dodik emphasized. The fact that the international factors in Sarajevo had asked for these issues to be included in the statement, according to Dodik’s opinion, does not mean that they had to be accepted. “International factors in Sarajevo themselves were making a big thing out of the February protests, and they keep repeating to this day that the protests were a sign of some sort of awakening, while, in essence, as I understood, the protests in FB&H were exclusively in connection with the economic situation in that entity,” Dodik recalled. He noted that all economic reforms had been created, implemented and imposed on local authorities by foreigners. “Therefore, a series of developments shows that there are attempts at undermining all past efforts that we invested in having RS established as a clear factor in European integration process,” Dodik assessed. He emphasized that Ivanic and Bosic try to implement a pro-bosnian politics, and there is nothing there that resembles protecting RS.

“RS doesn’t need anyone to protect it, but needs only recognition of its position and nothing more,” said Dodik. In this respect, he said, the Federation media continue to misinform the public in relation with these alleged efforts, through praising the statement.

“I have had an opportunity to read it and see that, for instance, it speaks of the need to implement European legal legacy and Copenhagen principles, while it nowhere says that the constitutional organization of B&H should be recognized. This manifests hidden and perfidious intentions toward RS coming from Sarajevo, accepted by Ivanic and Bosic who supported such a statement,” Dodik said. RS President is of the opinion that this is a political project which envisages devaluation of the roles of leaders, and the leaders are asked to sign this statement. “It is a known fact that without signatures this text cannot be forwarded to the parliament, just like earlier nothing could have been forwarded unless accepted by the leaders, in their capacity of representatives of political parties supported by the people,” Dodik said. On December 31, the B&H Presidency defined the draft joint statement on the commitment of political leaders to carrying out the necessary reforms in the EU accession process.

 

Dodik favors introduction of presidential system in RS (Oslobodjenje, Euro Blic)

Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska (RS), believes that the introduction of a presidential system should be seriously considered in RS when entering into discussions of constitutional reform. Dodik announced the possibility of initiating constitutional changes in this direction at the end of the current four-year presidential mandate. He told EuroBlic that for him, such a proposal would need the general consensus in RS, and that he would assess whether to refer a formal proposal independent of the political situation. "Since this is my second term as president, according to the constitution I can no longer campaign for this position. It would be good that after the end of my mandate, RS would elect a president that would be simultaneously a member of the B&H Presidency,” said Dodik. He explained that this would be the best protection for RS and its positioning on the B&H level, and that it would simplify many things. Rajko Kuzmanovic, president of the RS Academy of Arts and Sciences, said that due to the Dayton structure of B&H, RS could not introduce such a system on its own. "The presidential system is the most efficient, because the head of state is the head of government, and he is usually both the executive and legislative organ and has unbelievably great power,” said Kuzmanovic. He added that in this case, the president is very efficient, because there are not several levels of decision-making. Kuzmanovic agreed that introducing such a system would provide protection for RS, but he sees the first obstacle for that in the RS Council of Peoples, which four years ago blocked constitutional change that, inter alia, provided for the abolition of the death penalty and the proclamation of Banja Luka as the capital of RS.

Moore: We expect B&H governments to fulfill campaign promises (Fena)

The past eight years have been marked by political stalemate and stagnation in B&H in almost every field, although 2014 experienced some key events, said Ambassador Jonathan Moore, chief of the OSCE mission in B&H, in an interview with Fena. He recalled the February protests, which illustrated the dissatisfaction and frustration of citizens, and the May floods. "After the damage caused by the floods and landslides, B&H citizens forgot their municipal and entity boundaries and helped one another to recover from the natural disaster, regardless of ethnic origin or place of residence,” said Moore. Finally, he says, the October elections showed that voters made a choice, strengthening some political parties and weakening others. Now, Moore believes, it is on political leaders in B&H to complete the process of forming governments and undertaking activities to advance the country. He recalls that during the first months he served as chief of the OSCE mission, he visited many places in B&H and spoke with many people, noting their frustrations that were obvious. "B&H citizens expect their leaders to undertake concrete steps, especially in the fields of the economy and job creation,” said Moore, adding that they eagerly expect cooperation with efficient government that will fulfill the campaign promises and use B&H’s potential.

 

SDP: B&H's path to EU an opportunity to integrate the country (Oslobodjenje)

The Social Democratic Party of B&H supports B&H's Euro-Atlantic integrations and will continue to work in that direction as an opposition party. Every step forward toward the European Union and NATO we have perceived and will perceive as a personal success, because we have invested much energy in achieving the general political and social consensus that the future of our country is in the EU and NATO, the SDP said in a statement. The party says it intends to continue to advocate for strengthening institutions and their functionality and efficiency, in order to be able to meet the conditions placed before B&H in the integration process. "We consider the statement on acceptance of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union's conclusions, as proposed by the B&H Presidency, to be a positive step. However, it is clear that this is only the beginning of the process that will demand very serious, responsible, and concrete work. We will witness the seriousness and actual commitment of all political actors for our country to soon become an EU candidate very quickly," the SDP statement reads.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

US Ambassador in Belgrade: Serbia was never asked to recognize Kosovo (Albeu, 4 January 2015)

Ambassador of the United States of America in Belgrade Michael Kirby has commented Nikolic's declarations that Serbia is being asked to recognize Kosovo. Kirby said that they never asked the Serbian state such thing and EU's policy is to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.

"We are not a member of the EU, but I remember autumn 2012 when Ashton and Secretary Hillary Clinton held joint talks with Nikolic and the then prime minister, Dacic. At the time they talked about normalization of relations, not recognition of Kosovo, "said Kirby. According to him, there are countries within the EU that have not recognized Kosovo and the EU is currently conditioning Serbia only in dialogue and not in recognition. However, the ambassador said he did not know what might happen in the future in Brussels regarding this matter.

 

Serbia Takes over as OSCE Head (Agence France Presse, by Naharnet Newsdesk, 01 January 2015)

Serbia takes over the presidency of the OSCE from Switzerland on Thursday, as the multinational body plays a prominent role in efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, headquartered in Vienna and representing 57 states, was created as an East-West forum during the Cold War.

The OSCE sent hundreds of observers into Ukraine as violence erupted there in April, and took part in talks for a September ceasefire agreement, which failed to stop the fighting.

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic is due to present the priorities of the presidency on January 15 in Vienna.

 

Serbians Prefer Russia to Europe, but Want to Join EU: Poll (Sputnik,02January 2015)

Some 54 percent believe that the EU membership would improve economic situation, cut unemployment and help defeat corruption in Serbia. However, only 32 percent have a positive view of the European Union

MOSCOW, January 2 (Sputnik) — Serbian citizens like Russia more than the European Union, but still want to join the bloc due to perceived improvement of living conditions, the poll released by EurActiv Friday suggests.

According to the poll conducted by Ipsos Strategic Marketing for Serbian Beta news agency, 52 percent of Serbians have a positive view of Russia and only 32 percent have a positive view of the EU. However, 54 percent of those questioned would have backed joining the 28-member bloc if the vote on the EU membership was to take place today.

Those in favor of joining the European Union believe that the EU membership would improve economic situation, cut unemployment and help defeat corruption in Serbia. But only one Serbian in four is aware that Belgrade engaged in EU membership talks a year ago.

Both Russia and the EU are viewed more positively by Serbians now than in February 2014, when the previous poll was held. Early in 2014, 46 percent Serbians said they like Russia and 27 said they have a positive attitude toward the European Union.

In the recent months, Russia's relations with the West, including the European Union, deteriorated due to the situation in Ukraine, as the United States and its allies accused Russia of meddling in Ukraine's internal affairs and introduced several rounds of sanctions against Moscow.

Serbian senior officials, including the country's President Tomislav Nikolic and Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic repeatedly stated that Serbia would never join the Western sanctions sacrificing its cooperation with Russia for the sake of joining the EU.

 

Croatia responds to Serbia's plea against Snedden extradition (SBS,By Kristina Kukolja, 4 January 2015)

Croatia has responded firmly to an appeal made by the Serbian government to Australia against the extradition of a Perth man wanted to face trial over alleged war crimes

The Serbian government has reportedly written to the Australian government for a third time asking it not to proceed with the extradition of Daniel Snedden to Croatia.

Mr Snedden is a dual Australian-Serbian citizen who travelled to Croatia during the 1990s conflict there. In December, the full Federal Court rejected Daniel Snedden's latest court appeal against extradition spanning the last eight years. It ruled that Mr Snedden had been accorded appropriate procedural fairness in the making of the former Justice Minister Jason Clare's decision to surrender him to Croatia. The court is also allowing Mr Snedden to seek leave to appeal the decision in the High Court. The now 60-year-old has spent the greater part of the last decade in extradition custody, in a stark contrast to the 1990s when he was a well-known and influential paramilitary leader of ethnic Serbs in Croatia. But media reports out of Serbia suggest Mr Snedden, who in the 1990s went by his birth name of Dragan Vasiljkovic or Captain Dragan, is despairing at the ruling, and as a last resort is once again turning to Serbia for help.

Snedden 'mentally confused'

Vasiljkovic's friend Vojislav Ilic, who visits him in prison, says that Captain Dragan is completely despondent, is physically well, but that "he is mentally confused, and that his hopes are now facing Serbia and waiting news from Belgrade". According to Mr. Ilic, representatives of Serbian community have stopped visiting Vasiljkovic because Australian media report that his case has been completed and that he will soon fly to Zagreb.According to him, Captain Dragan does not have the money to pay lawyers who now "began trading with him" and are now avoiding him.

Croatia wants to try Daniel Snedden on three counts of alleged involvement in war crimes, which include the torture and killing of non-Serb prisoners and civilians. He denies the allegations against him, arguing that he won't receive a fair trial in Croatia, and reportedly more recently - that if sent to Croatia, he will be killed.

Letter of appeal

Faced with possibility of imminent extradition in the wake of the Federal Court's decision, the Serbian Justice Minister Nikola Selakovic has written to his Australian counterpart Michael Keenan. The letter, formally handed over by the Serbian ambassador in Canberra, reportedly expresses concerns about the quality of evidence being used against Mr Snedden, and alleged discrimination against Serbs within Croatia's justice system. It apparently offers to conduct criminal proceedings against Mr Snedden in Serbia. And warns that his extradition would cause "reactions" from the Serb community in Australia, and upset the public in Serbia. Croatia's Assistant Minister at the Ministry for Justice, Ivan Crncec, says Serbia's action has come as a surprise. He's told Croatia's national broadcaster, Croatian Radio-television, that Serbia has no right make such remarks. "Serbia, in my view, is in no position to assess and evaluate Croatia's justice system, what evidently appears to be the case with this move by the Serbian justice minister. The situation is, in fact, quite the opposite," Crncec said. "They take upon themselves the right to put on trial and foreign nationals for war crimes" Although long on a path of post-war reconciliation, Croatia has threatened to block Serbia's path to European Union membership if certain war-time issues remain unresolved. Croatia is the newest 28th member of the European Union, and as has been its experience in the past, will now have the opportunity to participate in pre-accession reform processes for any other former Yugoslav states seeking to follow in its path. In addition, the two neighbours have submitted mutual claims to the International Court of Justice in The Netherlands alleging acts of genocide dating back to the Croatian war. Assistant Minister Crncec says Croatia will have an active role in Serbia's path to EU membership, with a particular focus on chapter 23 of the bloc's rules and regulations, which concerns the judiciary and fundamental rights.

"There are certain problems that we, and other member states, will point to. On the one hand, [Serbia] has this odd law that positions them as a mini Hague Tribunal. They take upon themselves the right to put on trial and foreign nationals for war crimes committed on the territory of other states - former Yugoslav states - which to us is not acceptable," he said. "On the one hand such a law exists. They're expressing a wish to try Captain Dragan even though we don't have information that any [criminal] proceedings have begun against Captain Dragan. While in other cases they refuse to conduct trials." SBS is seeking further comment from Daniel Snedden's lawyer Dan Mori and federal Justice Minister Michael Keenan.

 

Bosnians look to dump baffling politics after protests (BBC, By Guy De Launey, Sarajevo 2 January 2015)

Ask to see the president in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and a snappy answer will inevitably zing back: "Which one?" Would it be the president of the largely ethnic-Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) and ethnic-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina? Or perhaps the president of the majority ethnic-Serb Republika Srpska? Admittedly, there is officially only one head of state on any given day. But there are three members of the presidency, one for each of the country's major ethnic groups, who take it in turns to hold that title, with each serving an eight-month term. Keeping track of Bosnia's presidents is simple compared with remembering its prime ministers. There are 14 of those. This arrangement was put in place by the Dayton Peace Agreement which ended the Bosnian conflict in 1995, carefully balancing the ambitions and fears of each of the ethnic groups. But what worked to end a war two decades ago seems to be holding the country back now.

Average wages are less than €400 ($488; £314) a month and those in work may be the lucky ones. Bosnia has the highest youth unemployment rate in the world, with six out of 10 young people unable to find a job.

War goals

Bosnians of all ethnicities know who to blame: the politicians. They stand accused of nepotism, corruption and botching privatisations - while picking up salaries around four times the local average. Meanwhile, important decisions that need to be made - on the economy, healthcare, even birth certificates - languish in limbo because the ethnic leaders find it hard to agree on anything.

And yet the man currently serving as Bosnia's head of state says the current arrangement has a lot going for it. "Any of the sides could try to use a change of Dayton to try to achieve war goals - and I'm against that," says Mladen Ivanic, the founder of the Party of Democratic Progress who won the Serb seat on the presidency in last October's elections. "Serbs would try to achieve an independent Republika Srpska. Bosniaks would like a single government, president and parliament. Croats would try to achieve a third ethnic entity. And then we would be lost." Although a veteran in Bosnian politics, Mr. Ivanic is a newcomer to the presidency and a more moderate figure than the previous Serb representative. He says he is willing to work with his Bosniak and Croat counterparts to try to improve life for all the country's people. "My emphasis during the election campaign was to put aside the big ideological issues where we disagree and put on the table reforms on which we can agree. "But Bosnians have rarely seen politicians agree on anything - except perhaps their privileges - since the end of the conflict. Riots and protests in February 2014 emphasised the level of their discontent - and there were widespread calls for international players to intervene.

Indeed, the international high representative has the power to do just that. When Paddy Ashdown held the post, he sacked scores of officials, becoming known as the "viceroy" of Bosnia in the process. The incumbent, Valentin Inzko, has favoured a hands-off approach but says that may change. "The politicians know that after the protests it cannot just be business as usual," he says.

"We should be more prescriptive. Bosnian people expect much more from the international community."

Internal game

Every day protesters arrive outside the presidency building in Sarajevo to hang up banners urging the European Union to step in - warning of further civil unrest if action is not taken.

After October's elections, Brussels adopted an Anglo-German plan to use the carrot of EU assistance to encourage Bosnia's politicians to make economic and social reforms.

Previously the EU had insisted that Bosnia would have to first change its constitution so that ethnic groups other than Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs could hold public office.

"We had been asking them to start with that constitution problem, but now we are looking to focus on urgent areas where there is consensus before going on to the constitution issue," says British ambassador Edward Ferguson. "This is a low-income country where people struggle to get by. Justice is sometimes less than it should be. These are things which strike people very personally."

The prize on offer is a Stabilization and Association Agreement - a step towards EU membership which would give Bosnia access to funds and expertise from Brussels and tariff-free access to some EU markets. Critics have suggested that this approach does not go far enough - and that dealing with the same group of political leaders who have failed Bosnia for 20 years is a reward for incompetence. But at least one of the country's presidents is excited by the prospect of EU membership. "We have to be in there," says Mr. Ivanic. "It is not ideal - but we have to be part of something larger so this internal game doesn't continue." Then his eyes twinkle. If Serbs are united with other Serbs as part of the EU then, he argues, all reasons for war will disappear.

Bosnia: More Unrest on the Horizon (BIRN, by Elvira M. Jukic, 05 January 2015)

Bigger budget deficits and poor economic indicators could lead to a new wave of social protests in 2015 - although EU pressure on the political class could give reforms a chance

Bosnia is likely to see a state-level government formed at the beginning of 2015, after which the new administration will face a host of challenges. A tough economic situation is set to continue, or perhaps worsen, with budget deficits, and growing dissatisfaction over falling standards of living and lack of jobs, which could spark new protests of the same kind that marked 2014.

“The economic situation will be worse than in 2014, which could bring new protests, unless a miracle happens and the politicians get serious,” political analyst Srdjan Puhalo told Balkan Insight. “A recovery is needed. What’s more important is that a climate of a fair society is created, and that people see something that they call justice functioning,” he added.

“Secondly, faith in the future must be restored. People have given up and young people especially are looking to ways to go away.” With so many tasks ahead of the new government that is to be formed following the October 2014 elections, improving the economy and ending Bosnia’s political instability will be some of the most difficult challenges facing the parties in power.

“Faced with a catastrophic social and economic situation, the new governments will have to make painful cuts,” political analyst Adnan Huskic predicted. “But, having in mind that control over public money, public companies and public procurements is the base of their political activity, I don't know how can it happen and that they start conducting policies of rationalization and savings.” The coalitions of parties that won in the 2014 elections, which have formed, or are likely to form, governments on different levels, from cantonal to the state level, are also seen as shaky, especially because of the amount of work they will have to do if they want to survive the year politically.

Another lean year

Following the February 2014 protests, the devastating floods in the spring and a reform-free period during the elections that dominated the second half of the last year, economic problems have mounted. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook said growth in the emerging and developing region of Europe, to which Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs, remains uneven. However, on a more optimistic note, it said it expected Gross Domestic Product in Bosnia to rise by 3.5 per cent.

“Southeastern Europe is projected to experience slower growth in 2014, in part because of severe floods in May that particularly affected Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, before picking up in 2015 on reconstruction spending, rebuilding of flood-damaged areas, and in some countries, employment growth,” the report said. Bosnia’s Directorate for Economic Planning said in one of its latest reports to the Council of Ministers that it expected FDI in Bosnia in 2015 to amount to around half-a-billion euro, mostly in energy projects. However, Sarajevo-based economic expert, Zlatko Hurtic, told Balkan Insight that there were signs that Bosnia faced a worse year in 2015, and he expected another lean period with only minimal growth. “Firstly, the economies of the EU will have only low levels of economic recovery, including the countries on which Bosnia’s economy mostly depends,” he said. “The present trends of low levels of investment and growing budget deficits have created huge uncertainty about 2015,” he added. Rather than detecting signs of a brighter year in 2015, Hurtic said he feared even more lost jobs and a higher rate of unemployment.

“Taking everything into consideration, a further growth of budget deficits should be expected, especially in the light of announcements that transfers of the ninth and tenth tranche of IMF loan money could be late,” he said, “We can expect pensions and social transfers to run late too,” he added.

More unrest on the way

Srdjan Puhalo, a Banja Luka-based researcher and analyst, said: “If we go on like this, we are heading towards disaster.” He warned of a new wave of protests related to economic and social problems, this time in the Bosnia’s mainly Serbian entity, Republika Srpska, as well as the Federation. The Sarajevo-based analyst Adnan Huskic told Balkan Insight that the authorities on all levels seem to be without any clear strategies of how to exit the current crisis.

“Deterioration can only be stopped by brave and responsible policies,” he said. “But any government that decides to make painful cuts and rationalize could easily lose the next elections...which is why such measures are unacceptable to the political establishment.”

Huskic agreed that a new wave of social unrest like the one in February last year could be on the horizon. “A new period of constant unrest and protests lies ahead, and we should not exclude violence similar to what was seen in February,” he argued. “However, the authorities will be more ready this time so we should expect pressure on unions as well as pressure on the media.”

One of the main reasons for such unrest, according to Huskic, would be continued growth in spending on the state administration. Economist Zlatko Hurtic argues that the pressures on budgets will grow in 2015 and that the new governments may well want to raise taxes.

“The new authorities might consider increasing taxes, primarily the VAT and the tax on revenue,” he said, “Aside from that, it is possible they may impose taxes on property or on interest.”

European pressure

The German-UK initiative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, backed by the EU Foreign Affairs Council last December, will play a role in Bosnia’s affairs in 2015.

Andy McGuffie, of the EU delegation, said a written commitment to reforms by Bosnian politicians would encourage the EU ministers to put into force the Stabilization and Association Agreement that the country signed in 2008. “However, Bosnia faces some very serious challenges – such as 63 percent youth unemployment– so the problems need to be tackled decisively,” McGuffie noted.

Srdjan Puhalo said pressures from outside have an impact on local politicians who seem to be aware that if they do not react, it could lead to new street protests, both in Republika Srpska and in the Federation entity. “The basic problem is not which reforms should be conducted, but rather the problem is the indecisiveness of governments to conduct them and their fear that reforms could lead to even bigger protests than the ones in February last year,” Hurtic noted.

He argued that the list of priorities on the economic agenda was long but what was most needed was for the labour market to become more flexible. Conditions for running businesses needed to be improved. “Lowering tax and para-fiscal charges on the economy together with strengthening of rule of law, reducing the grey economy and curbing corruption are the most important measures that would improve the business climate for investors, not just foreign investors,” he said.

“However, lowering political tensions is the condition of all conditions for stronger economic growth, since the political risk for investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina is still high,” he concluded.