LOCAL PRESS

 

Nikolic: One should keep in mind specific feature of Serb community (RTS)

Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic said that much has been done in drafting the platform for Kosovo and Metohija, because, as he said, it is not enough just to say that Serbia will not recognize Kosovo’s independence. In his interview for Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS), Nikolic pointed to the fact that Kosovo is present at every international meeting, that the countries with a similar problem are advised to cooperate with Kosovo, and therefore something must be different. Noting that his proposal jeopardizes the final solution, the Serbian President said he would discuss the platform with Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. He said that any future solution has to keep in mind the specific feature of the Serb community and the four local self-governments in northern Kosovo and Metohija that the Albanians did not manage to take over, not even with arms, so it would be pointless to expect them to do that through negotiations with Belgrade.

 

Union to be financed by Belgrade, Pristina and the international community (RTS)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric said in Gracanica that the future Union of Serb Municipalities would be financed by Belgrade, Pristina and the international community and that the Serbian government would continue giving financial support to the Kosovo Serbs. He told a press conference after taking part in a round table entitled Decentralization and the Serb Community in Kosovo and Metohija, dedicated to the implementation of the Brussels Agreement and the foundation of the Union of Serb Municipalities, that everyone who is ready to make an institutional contribution to the formation of the Serb community was welcome. The formation of the Union of Serb Municipalities is our absolute priority and will enable Serbs to survive in Kosovo and Metohija on a long-term basis, said Djuric. The discussion was the first in a series of round table events to be organized this year by the Forum for Ethnic Relations in collaboration with the Kosovo Foundation for Open Society as part of a project dealing with the challenges facing the Serb community on the way to the normalization of relations in Kosovo and Metohija.

 

Jablanovic: Meeting with Prime Minister not scheduled yet (Radio Serbia, by Sladjana Pavic)

Despite being announced over the past week, the meeting between Kosovo Serbs and Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, on participation in Kosovo institutions, has not been scheduled yet, the dismissed minister in the Kosovo government Aleksandar Jablanovic told Radio Serbia. “The Serb (Srpska) List is not in a hurry and there is no deadline for the meeting to take place. The Prime Minister will notify the public about it,” Jablanovic said. Commenting on reports in certain media about the possibility of early local elections in four municipalities in northern Kosovo as the budget has not been adopted, he says that Pristina has no legal ground for such an attempt. “It is unrealistic to expect early local elections as the legally envisaged deadline that bounds Pristina institutions had elapsed. No suggestions have been made to any of the municipalities north of the Ibar River within the legal deadline as how to correct their budget plans. In line with the Serbian Constitution, we have adopted the budgets that have no provisions regarding education and health care. That was also part of the agreement with the representatives of the then technical government in Pristina. The proof of it is a letter from the Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister at the time, Edita Tahiri, from the period when the technical government was in power, and it guaranteed that such budgets would be accepted. All four municipalities have then passed the budgets at hand, without any objections from Pristina, until all the legal deadlines for changes to the budgets have passed,” Jablanovic explained. He underlines that the subject of education and health care is yet to be resolved in the negotiations in Brussels, so those areas ought to be regulated through the Union of Serb Municipalities, the establishing of which is previewed by the Brussels agreement. The Kosovo government has threatened to block budgets for municipalities in the north of Kosovo unless they define the income of employees in education and health care, and that in turn may lead to the introduction of interim measures and early elections. Calling for those elections in Leposavic, Northern Kosovska Mitrovica, Zvecan and Zubin Potok would represent a kind of revision to the Brussels agreement, which is unacceptable for Kosovo Serbs, Aleksandar Jablanovic concluded in his interview to International Radio Serbia.

 

No deal on vehicle insurance with Kosovo authorities (Tanjug)

The Serbian Association of Car Insurers could not sign a vehicle insurance agreement with the Kosovo authorities even after three years of negotiations, although it has offered a considerable price cut, the Association’s Secretary General Vladan Manic has said. Besides the significant price reduction for insurance services, the Association offered a wide range of tariffs that would enable freedom of movement of people, goods and services across the administrative line between central Serbia and Kosovo and Metohija, Manic said at the Kopaonik Business Forum on Tuesday evening. However, the Association refused to sign any contract that would stipulate the payment of vehicle insurance at the administrative line, Manic said at a panel discussion titled “Key Issues in Insurance Industry in Recovery Period”. Manic said that the association could not accept to sign this agreement with the Kosovo bodies, as that would indirectly mean the recognition of Kosovo’s statehood.

 

Case against Clinton and Blair lost (Danas)

While he recently held a lecture over coffee to Serbian ministers, former British premier Tony Blair probably didn’t know that somewhere in the drawers in the Palace of Justice there is a case that charges him with the violation of the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia during the NATO bombardment in 1999. Judging by everything, this indictment is still in force since the statute of limitation for this criminal offence arrives after twenty years. Still, along with numerous changes in the organization of the courts, it is nearly impossible to trace it and find out which court has jurisdiction to proceed according to the indictment. Likewise, it is completely unclear in what phase is the proceeding against former Western and NATO leaders, marked by Slobodan Milosevic’s regime as most responsible for the aggression on the FR Yugoslavia. The development path of the indictment starts in 2000, when US president Bill Clinton, US secretary of state Madeleine Albright, British premier Tony Blair, French president Jacques Chirac, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and another nine leaders of NATO and countries that took part in the bombing of FR Yugoslavia, were each convicted in absentia to twenty years in prison for the war crime against the civilian population and use of prohibited means of warfare. Not long after 5 October 2000, the Supreme Court annulled this sentence and returned it to the District Court for retrial. Member of the panel of the District Court that passed the sentence was the then judge Goran Petronijevic. Today an attorney, Petronijevic explains that following the decision of the Supreme Court to annul the sentence, the District Prosecution gave up four of five counts of the indictment. “At the insisting of Western officials who didn’t want to visit Serbia over this sentence, the Prosecution remained with the lawsuit for the criminal offence of the violation of territorial integrity. At that moment the Military Court was responsible for this criminal act, said Petronijevic. According to him, absolute statute of limitation for the offence of the violation of territorial integrity arrives after twenty years, unlike other mentioned criminal offences that don’t have statute of limitation. On the last day of 2004, military courts were abolished, so this case found itself again under the jurisdiction of the District Court according to the Law on taking over jurisdiction of military courts. Even though the sentence against foreign officials who headed the NATO bombardment was annulled not long after it was delivered, attorney Petronijevic thinks that valuable documentation material remained after this process. “That is an enormous number of documents on the bombing collected by as many as 27 district courts. Especially valuable is the part that referred to the bombing of Petrohemija and other power plants, as well as the part that dealt with the use of depleted uranium,” stressed Petronijevic.

 

Russian Energy Projects in the Balkans following the Southern Stream (Tanjug/Radio Serbia)

Serbia and countries that could possibly participate in the land part of the Turkish Stream project should not be leaving the game, but rather taking active roles in realization of the project that is to replace Southern Stream, it has been stated at the scientific conference in Belgrade dubbed Russian Energy Projects in the Balkans following the Southern Stream. Countries of the Balkans could become strategically important and a central link in supplying gas to consumers in Europe from the Turkey-Greece border, which is the point the Turkish Stream should reach, research associate of the Russian institute of strategic research and Turkologist Irina Svistunova stated. According to her, Russia has a reason to believe that Turkey, having in place increasingly independent policy and, although a NATO member, has not imposed sanctions against Russia, will support the construction of the Turkish Stream. Editor of the Gazprom magazine Sergey Pravosudov emphasized that Russia does not want to build the gas pipeline at its own expense if it is not in position to transport more than 50% of its own gas via that pipeline.

 

Ferguson: NATO respects Serbia’s military neutrality (Danas)

“We cannot change what happened in the past, but I think that the relations between NATO and Serbia have improved and today I can say that we are working together and moving forward. The Alliance sees Serbia as an important member of the Partnership for Peace Program, and recently we have signed a new agreement that should promote cooperation in regard to issues in mutual interest. Serbian citizens should view NATO as a partner that wants to help with its expertise the reform of the defense and security sector, along with full respect for Serbia’s policy of military neutrality,” Admiral Mark Ferguson, the Commander of Allied Joint Force Command in Naples and U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa Commander, told Danas.

Could you explain NATO’s cooperation with the Serbian Army, especially through the Partnership for Peace Program?

“I am glad that I can say that we are moving forward in our partnership with Serbia along with more than 100 joint activities that are planned for this year. Working together with the Serbian Defense Ministry and Army on 40 officially agreed partner goals, we continue to offer support to the capacity building of the Serbian Army towards the most advanced military standards in the world. More than 250 Serbian soldiers have been recently certified through the Alliance’s Concept of Operative Capabilities. This training helps Serbia to continue to offer important contribution to the UN and EU peacekeeping missions, while at the same time makes your soldiers safer in these missions. I am especially proud over the possibility for training soldiers of partnership countries offered by your Center for training staff of the atomic-biological-chemical defense in Krusevac. Last year this center was recognized as the NATO Partnership Center for Training and Education. Because of this, I think that our partnership is becoming more powerful and stronger.”

As regards the situation in Kosovo, how do you see KFOR’s future?

“KFOR’s mission is to offer a secure and safe environment in Kosovo and to support, in cooperation with other international organizations, the development of local security institutions. Normalization of practical cooperation between Belgrade and Pristina in the implementation of regulations in the zone of the administrative-border line will be necessary in order to put a stop to criminal activities and achieve progress in EU aspirations. Our intention is to head towards a more flexible presence of troops, but in the decision-making process we will be guided exclusively with the situation on the ground.”

In your opinion, will the Serbian Army and police be allowed to return to Kosovo in some form, as envisaged by the Kumanovo Agreement?

“That is a political process that would require a political decision, therefore, I cannot comment.”

How do you see the security situation in the Western Balkans, especially in regard to the possible terrorist threats?

“Terrorism doesn’t know borders, nations or religions, and this is why the fight against terrorism has become a very important element in cooperation of NATO with partners. All states in the Western Balkans support our joint fight against this threat and take part in the post-conflict stabilization of affected regions throughout the world, which is also followed by certain security risks. Dialogue and cooperation in the fight against terrorism will be one of the priorities of the Alliance in relations with all our partners.”

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

New arrests and incitements for war crimes (Fena/Tanjug)

The police officers of the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) arrested five persons last night for suspicion of committing war crime in area of Rogatica municipality during 1992. While the Serbian War Crime Prosecution issued indictments against Gojko Lukic, Ljubisa Vasiljevic, Dusko Vasiljevic, Jovan Lipovac and Dragana Djekic, all former members of the Bosnian Serb armed forces, for their involvement in the abductions and killings of the civilian victims on February 27, 1993. The joint investigation team interviewed more than a 100 witnesses in Serbia and B&H within 18 months and collected the evidence needed to raise an indictment, the statement says. An operation organized by the office resulted in the arrest of 15 people, 5 in Serbia and 10 in B&H, on December 4, 2014. These suspects were former members of the Army of the Republika Srpska and the paramilitary unit Osvetnici (Avengers). They are alleged to have taken off the train on the Belgrade-Bar rail line 20 passengers, the citizens of the then Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, including 18 Bosniaks, one Croat, and one more person, a foreign citizen of probably African or Arab origin, whose identity was never determined. The crime occurred on March 27, 1993 near Strpci, B&H.The arrested are suspected of taking the kidnapped passengers to a school in Prelovo, where they beat and robbed them, and afterwards transporting them to an abandoned house near the river Drina, where they shot them and threw their bodies into the river. The remains of Rasim Coric, Jusuf Rastoder, Halil Zupcevic and Ilijaz Licina were found in the vicinity of the lake Perucac in 2010, while the search for the other bodies continues.

 

Covic: Next week the FB&H Government and the Council of Ministers will be formed (Srna)

President of the HDZ B&H Dragan Covic announced that the FB&H Government and the Council of Ministers will be formed next week. After informal discussions with the Deputy President of the SDA, Bakir Izetbegovic, Covic said that he expects that on Monday, March 9, the positions on the formation of the Government of the Federation will be clear. He told reporters that among the six departments that the HDZ B&H is going to get, there will certainly be the position of the FB&H Minister of Finance. “I think that in this case there is no room for compromise. In some other areas may be, but in this one certainly not. The Bosniak side has the position of the Prime Minister of FB&H and the position of the Chairman of the Council of Ministers, some kind of infrastructure which can work together must be established. For me, the minimum is that the Deputy Prime Minister is the Minister of Finance from among the Croat people,” said Covic. He said that the SDA is HDZ B&H’s sole partner, adding that there is a possibility of forming the FB&H minority government. Covic expects the meeting between the SDA Deputy Chairman Bakir Izetbegovic and the leader of the Democratic Front (DF) Zeljko Komsic in the upcoming days. “Honestly, I do not expect anything special. For me it is acceptable to create a minority government with all the risks that exist around it. Of course, there are many other possibilities, but I have to repeat and say that it is not a fad that we came out with the condition of having the six positions, that we should now supposedly negotiate about. It's one third of 17 positions regardless of how some other people see it,” said Covic. He said that everyone has their own math and logic behind it, which changes from session to session. Covic said that he had the talks with the Council of Ministers mandate holder Denis Zvizdic so that the HDZ B&H could propose their candidates for the ministerial and deputy ministerial positions. The Deputy-President of the SDA Bakir Izetbegovic said that he would wait until the DF changes its attitude, hoping that they will agree to continue negotiations. Izetbegovic said that he will be absent in next two days as he travels to Turkey, so the date of the next meeting on forming a government could be scheduled for Friday or during the weekend. Izetbegovic said that he will send an official invitation to the DF inviting them to the meeting, and that he’ll do whatever it takes to stabilize the situation. “I have said to Covic that I don’t want to continue without a third partner. What Komsic and I have talked about on Friday is a solid base for negotiations. Difficult problems will face the government in the next four years and we should all behave responsibility and give up on maximalist demands,” said Izetbegovic. He is convinced that Komsic will return to negotiations on forming a government, because, as Izetbegovic said, he is a patriot who will do anything to stabilize the situation in the country.

 

Softic: We have sent a public invitation to the DF to return to the negotiating table (Oslobodjenje/Fena)

We have sent a public invitation to the Democratic Front (DF) to return to the negotiating table and try to find some kind of solution that would be acceptable to all - said the Vice-President of the SDA Safet Softic to Fena news agency. “Given that the last meeting of the three parties in connection with the formation of the Government of the Federation of B&H ended ingloriously and that there was an unexpected turn of events in this regard, the Presidency of the Democratic Action Party has discussed the DF’s offer for a minority government,” said Softic, adding that they have unanimously rejected the proposal. I don’t think, he added, that would be good for the Federation of B&H or its citizens. “We think it would be a very unstable government which wouldn’t be able to implement the necessary reforms and all that awaits the future government,” said Softic. According to him, an open letter is sent to the DF to return to the negotiating table and to try to reach some kind of solution that would be acceptable to all. After the SDA party session, some contacts with representatives of DF have been achieved. “They gave the statement yesterday in which they said that their return to the negotiating table is possible, but they are standing by their principles. I believe that on Friday, Saturday or Sunday we will have some constructive talks and come to a final agreement. It is my expectation and I think that there are grounds for such optimism,” said Softic, adding that an agreement on the formation of the FB&H government has no alternative. “These three parties have entered into the process of forming the government, they have appointed the leadership of the FB&H, appointed the leadership of the two houses - the House of Representatives and the people in the Federation so it is only possible to unblock the process or terminate it all and go back to the beginning and make some new parliamentary majority. As we said in our statement, we do not see the possibility of further negotiations on forming the Government of FB&H without the DF,” said Softic.

 

Zaev’s bombs explode in opposition media (MIA)

Goce Mihajloski is no longer editor of 24 television news. Mihajloski through social networks indicates that the cause is personal, that different views with the management are not the only reason, but that despite the work there were other precious things, such as leisure. “Sometimes we had different opinions with the management on the part of the program, but it is neither the main nor the only reason for my withdrawal. However, in life there are other priorities than building career at all costs. For example, free time is priceless. TV 24 News has great confidence in the viewers due to its objectivity and independence. I think that will remain on the same path, for which I hope I gave small share last year …” - stands in the part of the explanation. In fact, Mihajloski is part of the “witch hunt” against those who express any doubt for the so-called strategy of SDSM “truth about Macedonia.” As reminder, Mihajloski pointed to many questions that even today the citizen to ask where did he got the materials, is there any evidence to indicate that there are materials for over 20 thousand people, is there evidence that the government was doing it, so where is the logic to record themselves, the recognition that the materials are from foreign offices?, writes Republika. In addition, the most important question that even today SDSM cannot forgive the Mihajloski- question of proof for the investigation, letter written by hand, which Zaev coolly admitted, the letter and the content. He admitted and then denied himself and denied his party that he did not knew Zoran Verushevski. Zaev here for the first points that he has been sitting five months to select the material by himself, that he will not “deliver to the party and to listen and play out voyeurs” in these two weeks, several times was denied in interviews by the people close to SDSM. As reminder, Mihajloski several times indicated that crime was not published. Pointing out the Mihajloski today is on “hold”. The SDSM after this interview had to arrange an interview for Zaev at TV Alsat-M where with set question with the editor of the TV, with questions that mostly had no connection with the case “Putsch”, but with flat ratings for “regime” in order not to led Zaev to the new recognition. Problems for Mihajloski started immediately after the interview with Zoran Zaev, after the first press release of the materials for illegally recorded phone calls from national political leadership. Pressures on television are confirmed by the other journalists in the television and can be noticed on the social networks. Public attacks felt Mihajloski, Dushica Mrdja and after the interview of Zaev at Thelma, target was Bobi Hristov. As matter of fact, Mihajloski and the other journalists in the media controlled by Pavle Satev with money from Vladimir Milcin given to through the budget of Soros had to leave the objectivity and stop to ask questions for which even at SDSM are not sure about the Zaev’s stability. To retain only to the so-called “content of the bombs” without critical attitude towards crime for which Zaev is charged, without leave space to admit another proof from the prosecution. In this predicament, that SDSM sinks with the volatility of Zaev and there is nothing left but to create enormous pressure over journalists at the controlled media to stage reality in which Zaev will be presented as hero. Well, it is not the accident that for these 20 years Milcin poured nearly 100 million in these media. Money should justify and to work it out, writes Republika. The question is raised, at which medium Zaev will appear next and what will be the media attitude towards him? Will ask the same questions that were left unanswered or will just leave Zaev to hold another press conference?

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Macedonia Allows Police to Use Rubber Bullets (BIRN, by Sinisa Jakov Marusic, 3 March 2015)

Amid rising political tensions and turbulent protests in Macedonia, parliament has given police a green light to use rubber bullets, stun guns and shock grenades to disperse protesters.

With the support of 59 of the 122 deputies in parliament, Macedonia on Monday adopted changes to the Police Law allowing police to use rubber bullets to disperse violent crowds.

The police will now be allowed to use rubber bullets, stun guns and shock grenades if protesters who "violate the public order do not disperse on the call of the police". Deputy Police Minister Zemri Kamili told parliament that police will be instructed to target protestors "in their lower extremities" to avoid causing severe injuries. The police say the measures are nothing new in practice but only serve to codify what is already in use. "Their codification according to the legal provisions that regulate this segment of police work is necessary and significant," the Interior Ministry wrote in an explanation submitted to parliament. In theory, until now, Macedonian police could only disperse crowds with batons, tear gas, water cannons and dogs. The change was adopted without the presence of the opposition MPs who have boycotted parliament since the March April 2014 early general and presidential elections, claiming the ruling parties won them by fraud. One professor, speaking off the record, said the introduction of rubber bullets was worrying. "Credible studies show that they are not safe and can cause lasting injuries and even death. Even Britain, which... used them extensively in Northern Ireland, banned their use in the 1970s after fatalities occurred," the professor, from the Faculty of Security in Skopje, told Balkan Insight. "With the growing number of protests of late, I fear this will only encourage the police to use these measures more frequently," the same source added. The change follow rising political tension in Macedonia. The opposition Social Democratic Party, SDSM, last month started revealing audio recordings, which it said prove that the government has conducted large-scale telephone surveillance. The SDSM says Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski and secret police chief Saso Mijalkov have been behind the whole operation. The opposition has threatened to continue revealing compromising recordings, which it says were obtained from sources in the domestic secret service. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski has denied the allegations, blaming the scandal on an unnamed "foreign secret service" that has been collaborating with SDSM leader Zoran Zaev. He has also accused Zaev of trying to blackmail him in order to grab power, which Zaev has in turn denied. Gruevski's ruling VMRO DPMNE party in a recent press release called on its members to "close ranks" in defence of the country. In light of the eavesdropping row, human rights NGOs and activists have staged protests, demanding respect for democratic values, an end to the state grip over the mainstream media, adherence to the rule of law, and political accountability from the government. Protests directed against the government started to increase at the end of last year, which is when the change to the Police Law was first announced. In November and December, mass protests by students and university professors took place in Skopje and other towns against a plan to introduce external, state-supervised exams for graduates. Also in December, thousands of contract and casual workers rallied against a government plan to increase their taxes from 10 to 35 per cent. Last month, elementary and high school professors launched a two-week boycott of classes directed against bad working conditions. The same month, a big protest march in Skopje demanded the resignation of Health Minister Nikola Todorov over the death of a child who was promised a state-funded operation abroad but did not get it in time.

 

Bosnian Serb Police Blamed for Attacks in Doboj (BIRN, 3 March 2015)

Testifying in Ratko Mladic's defence, a former Bosnian Serb army officer admitted that non-Serbs were persecuted and killed in 1992 in Doboj, but blamed local police and paramilitaries.

Milivoje Simic, the wartime commander of a unit in Doboj Simic, testified at Mladic's trial at the Hague Tribunal on Tuesday that during “cleansing operations” in the town of Doboj and the surrounding area, Serb police and paramilitaries robbed, arrested and killed Bosniaks and Croats.

“All of what happened was carried out by paramilitaries and the Police Centre… They robbed Croats and Muslims and also Serbs; I warned the police chief,” said the witness after the Hague prosecutor showed him a document stating that a military unit in the village of Civcija stole 70 kilogrammes of gold and 350,000 Deutschmarks. Testifying about the detention of civilians from Civcija, the witness said: “That was done only by the police.” Former Bosnian Serb Army chief Mladic is charged with the persecution of Muslims and Croats, which reached the scale of genocide in several municipalities in 1992. He is also on trial for genocide in Srebrenica, terrorising the population of Sarajevo and taking UN peacekeepers hostage. Milivoje testified that a unit led by a man called Veljko Milankovic which was known as the Wolves from Vucijak was guilty of crimes but was independent of the Bosnian Serb Army. But after the prosecution showed him an order which named Milankovic as “commander of a battalion” of the Bosnian Serb Army, he said that the renegade unit was actually mostly commanded by another man, Bosko Kelecevic. “Wherever he went with his group, there were problems,” said the witness.

The trial continues.

 

The war in the Ukraine is very different from that in Bosnia (The Daily Star, by Ivan Krastev, 4 March 2015)

The ongoing turmoil in Ukraine has frequently been compared to the Yugoslav crisis of the early 1990s – and, indeed, there are many similarities. But when it comes to understanding why the conflict between Ukraine’s government and Russian-backed separatists has persisted – and why, after a year of increasingly brutal fighting, a resolution seems so remote – the differences are far more important. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tactics in Ukraine do resemble those of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic during the breakup of Yugoslavia. Putin’s misuse of World War II references in propaganda, aimed at fueling intense Russian nationalism, is often said to be a cut-and-paste replica of Milosevic’s disinformation campaigns in the early 1990s, which stirred up anti-Croat sentiment among Serbs. Both Putin and Milosevic empowered ethnic kin in the countries over which they wanted to assert control, before launching military invasions under the pretense of protecting those kin. Finally, both leaders secured the establishment of self-proclaimed “republics” within another country’s borders. Given these similarities, many argue that Western powers should emulate their approach to ending the crisis in Yugoslavia – and that means providing “lethal defensive military assistance” to Ukraine. After all, it is asserted, the Dayton Agreement that ended the Bosnian War became possible only after the U.S. decided to arm the Croats and the Bosnian Muslims. But, of course, Putin’s Russia is not Milosevic’s Serbia. Russia is not a footnote in history or a Balkan mini state; it is a nuclear Great Power, against which Ukraine, however heavily armed, does not stand a chance militarily. Given this, providing weapons to Ukraine would only exacerbate the bloodletting, without compelling Putin to reconsider his approach and support a lasting peace. Moreover, the geopolitical context has changed considerably in the last two decades. At the time of the Yugoslav war, the West not only occupied the moral high ground, but was also viewed as invincible, owing to its victory in the Cold War. Today, the West is perceived as being in decline, with America’s legitimacy as a global leader increasingly called into question. In this context, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is right to oppose arming Ukraine. But she is wrong to assume that negotiations with the Russians can produce a lasting solution like the Dayton Accords, because the conflicts themselves are fundamentally different. Whereas Yugoslavia experienced a local crisis with broader European implications, Ukraine is mired in a European crisis with local implications. Milosevic had a clear strategic objective: to create a Greater Serbia. To this end, he wanted either to redraw the region’s borders, or at least conclude a deal that gave autonomy to Serbian-majority regions outside of Serbia proper. Negotiations to end the Balkan wars were possible precisely because they centered on maps. For Putin, the annexation of Crimea was sufficient, in a strategic sense. He is no longer interested in redrawing lines on maps. His actions are not driven primarily by a determination to annex the Donbas region (which is of negligible strategic importance to Russia), carve out a land corridor to Crimea, or create a frozen conflict. Putin remains involved in Ukraine for reasons that seem largely pedagogical. He has a message for the sanctimonious West – and for the Ukrainians who craved entry into its club. For the West, the message is that Russia will not tolerate meddling in its backyard. In Putin’s view, the West must acknowledge the entire post-Soviet space, minus the Baltic states, as Russia’s exclusive sphere of influence. (The Kremlin’s apparent failure to anticipate China’s refusal to accept such a dispensation – particularly in Central Asia, which is key to President Xi Jinping’s economic vision – represents a puzzling lapse in Putin’s strategic calculus.) For Ukraine – and its new government, in particular – the message is that the country cannot survive, at least not within its current borders, without Russia’s support. Putin also wants to show Ukrainians that, at the end of the day, the West does not really care about them. Americans will not fight for them, and Europeans will not provide the money that their government so desperately needs. The West’s motivations in Ukraine, too, seem more pedagogical than strategic: to show Putin that changing borders by force is unacceptable in Europe today. The hope is that economic sanctions, together with Russian casualties on the ground, will force Russia humbly to accept its post-Cold War status as a third-rate power, while sending the additional message that any effort to revise the U.S.-led world order is doomed to fail – with serious economic costs. Clear strategic objectives enable negotiating parties to concede that half a loaf is better than none. But two sides that simply want to teach each other a lesson lack the common ground needed to hammer out a compromise acceptable to both. That is one reason why today’s negotiations on Ukraine are bound to achieve only patchy, short-lived truces, not the kind of long-term solution that was reached after the Bosnian war.

Stephen Holmes is a professor at the New York University School of Law and the author, most recently, of “The Matador’s Cape: America’s Reckless Response to Terror.”

Ivan Krastev is chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna. His latest book is “In Mistrust We Trust: Can Democracy Survive When We Don’t Trust Our Leaders?” THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate ©

 

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Media summaries are produced for the internal use of the United Nations Office in Belgrade, UNMIK and UNHQ. The contents do not represent anything other than a selection of articles likely to be of interest to a United Nations readership.