LOCAL PRESS

 

Dacic: Serbia in favor of regional peace, but won’t let others humiliate it (Beta)

 

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said that Serbia would play a constructive role in solving regional problems, but that it might vote against the interests of the neighbors that failed to support Serbia in the matters that were important for the country, including the recognition of Kosovo's independence or a move by Kosovo to join UNESCO. In an interview with Beta on 2 January, Dacic explained it was not revenge, but rather a policy of reciprocity, and that Serbia would not let anyone humiliate it. “I can hardly wait for a matter important for Macedonia or Montenegro to emerge before international organizations, and we'll see what Serbia will do,” Dacic said. In Dacic’s words, a decision to recognize Kosovo and support Kosovo’s UNESCO membership put a strain on Serbia’s relations with the neighbors, which does not mean that Serbia will take a bilateral action against them. “I’m not saying that we'll do something against

Montenegro, Macedonia, Croatia or anyone else, I’m just speaking about Serbia’s attitude toward their requests, once they emerge. It has nothing to do with our bilateral relations. It's more about our territorial integrity. Can you imagine the Serbs in Montenegro declaring a unilateral secession? What’s the difference? Percentage-wise, there are fewer Albanians in Serbia,” Dacic was explicit.

Dacic also said that Serbia had made a mistake to recognize Macedonia under its constitutional name, because Macedonia had recognized Kosovo. “Serbia made a huge mistake. All of Europe and the world have been using the name Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and we have slapped our brothers in Greece in the face instead. Now we are expecting Greece not to recognize Kosovo, while we have recognized Macedonia, offending the Greeks, and they (the Macedonians) always vote in favor of Kosovo. I have to say that we are fools. Here you go,

I’m using a non-diplomatic term,” Dacic said. He explained that in bilateral contacts with Skopje, Belgrade would continue to use the constitutional name, but in international relations, it would use the one used by the EU and the U.N., FYROM.

Dacic said that Serbia’s goal should be to restart relations with the United States, but also to continue good relations with Russia and China, and make progress in accession to the European Union. Dacic said that Serbia was not balancing between the West and Russia, but rather protecting its own national interests. Serbia will not change the policy toward Russia and China as long as they are the only two states protecting its interests at the U.N. Security Council, he said.“They vetoed the Srebrenica resolution. They will also use the right to veto if someone suggested that Kosovo should join the United Nations. Are we expected to vote in favor of something to condemn Russia or China? Is that a normal thing to do? Or, Iran’s ambassador was here yesterday. We are now supposed to beg Iran not to recognize Kosovo, but have regularly voted against Iran before. Well, we no longer vote against Iran. That’s the change of our policy,” Dacic explained.

 

Simic: EU to exert pressure on Pristina to meet obligations from Brussels agreement (Beta)

 

Serb List leader Slavko Simic said yesterday that it was high time for Pristina to fulfill its obligations which were part of an agreement with Serbia in Brussels and that the EU should make it clear to Albanian political leaders in Kosovo that they did not have either excuses or time for delaying the formation of a Community of Serb Municipalities. “Institutions and the carriers of political offices in Kosovo will ultimately be called to account for prolonging [the fulfillment of the deal] and political obstructions which they are constantly using with the help of opposition political parties to marginalize the Brussels dialogue,” Simic told Beta.

“In coordination with our government, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic and Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric, we will take every political step as far as the process that is the tenet of the Brussels Agreement for the Serb community goes, to do what ought to have been done a long time ago, which is to constitute our executive Community of Serb

Municipalities on 15 February this year,” Simic told Beta.

 

Patriarch Irinej: Crucified Kosovo, our national cradle, remains our country (B92)

 

Serbian Patiarch Irinej on Tuesday sent his Christmas message urging believers to live in mutual brotherly love. In his message, the Patriarch calls on believers to especially pray for the crucified Kosovo and Metohija, our spiritual and national cradle, and stresses that Kosovo will remain our country, for there is present both our Golgotha and our Jerusalem. Irinej also urges prayers with the goal of extinguishing enmity among the nations as well as heresies and schisms.

 

Stefanovic: Decision on early election to be made in interest of citizens (Tanjug)

 

Decision on calling an early parliamentary election will be made in the best interest of citizens and Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) will not be guided in this by the party interests, the vice-president of SNS and Minister of Internal Affairs Nebojsa Stefanovic said on Tuesday to Tanjug.

 

Faktor Plus: Vucic could defeat Nikolic in second round (Politika/B92)

 

Vucic could win in the first round of presidential elections that should be held in Serbia in the spring, a new poll has shown. At the same time, according to the Faktor Plus/Politika survey that, among other issues, looks into the chances of potential candidates, President Tomislav Nikolic could have problems if he qualified to the second round. The poll, conducted December 16-26, also shows that Vucic would convincingly defeat Nikolic in the second round. The newspaper said that the questions asked during the survey were mostly of a hypothetical nature considering the small number of confirmed candidates so far. Respondents were asked to choose between Nikolic, that is, Vucic, and a potential candidate. In the second round, Nikolic and Vuk Jeremic would have equal chances (50 against 50 percent), but he would do better against Sasa Jankovic (with 62 percent), Vojislav Seselj (53 percent), and Ivica Dacic (58 percent). If Vucic went to the second round and squared off against these candidates, he would receive 76 percent against Seselj, 68 percent against Jeremic, and 74 percent against Jankovic. According to the poll, he would also beat Nikolic (64 against 34 percent.)

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Final preparations for marking of RS Day on 9 January are underway (N1)

 

The final preparations for marking of the Republika Srpska (RS) Day on 9 January are underway in the RS, reminding that the Constitutional Court (CC) of B&H declared 9 January as the RS Day unconstitutional. According to announcements by the RS officials, this year the manifestation marking 9 January will be the most solemn ceremony ever. The RS Ministry of Administration and Local Self-Government announced on Tuesday that 9 January will be non-working day in the RS. All streets in Banja Luka are already decorated with the RS flags. For the first time this year a parade will be organized in Banja Luka on the occasion of the RS Day. RS Minister of Interior Dragan Lukac said that the parade will be a challenge for the police, which will secure the whole event, as well as all developments on the occasion of 9 January. The reporter reminded that the RS Day will be marked by a number of cultural events, programs and activities. SP RS leader and RS Minister of Industry, Energy and Mining of Petar Djokic commented that by marking the RS Day the RS wants to preserve its autonomy in a form defined by the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) and it will not allow any kind of humiliation or weakening of its identity.

 

Bosniak officials: Celebration of 9 January is disrespect for B&H CC’s decision (Hayat)

 

The RS government announced on Tuesday that 9 January will be celebrated as a holiday of the RS. Politicians in the Federation of B&H and representatives of Bosniaks in the RS assessed the abovementioned decision as continuation of disrespect of a decision of B&H Constitutional Court (CC), which ruled that celebration of the holiday is unconstitutional. Politicians in the Federation of B&H and representatives of Bosniaks in the RS called on B&H Prosecutor’s Office and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) to react and thus prevent violation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA). Deputy Speaker of the RS Assembly Senad Bratic said that celebration of 9 January and the recently-held referendum in the RS are highly-cost events, carried out at expense of all budget beneficiaries in the RS. Vice President Ramiz Salkic stated that all those who respect sovereignty and integrity of B&H should not give any contribution to celebration of January 9. Chairman of B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Sefik Dzaferovic warned that non-implementation of the decision of B&H CC is a crime according to B&H Criminal Code. SDP B&H MP Damir Masic stressed that it is about time for a reaction of B&H Prosecutor’s Office in this case, in order to protect the institution that they represent and the entire system in B&H.

 

Bosniak officials criticize Nikolic’s announced attendance of marking of RS Day (TV1)

 

Speaker of the House of Representatives of B&H parliament Sefik Dzaferovic stated that Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic’s announced attendance of marking of Republika Srpska (RS) Day shows disrespect towards institutions of B&H. Dzaferovic added that cooperation between two states must be based on respecting of constitutional order of those states and noted that it seems this is not the case here. Dzaferovic said that every leader from the region, including Nikolic, must respect decisions of institutions of B&H if they want to develop good relations with B&H. Dzaferovic reminded that the Constitutional Court (CC) of B&H is the key institution so Nikolic’s announced visit is in collision with respect towards institutions of B&H.

 

Stevandic: Those responsible for USCE operation to be sanctioned (Srna)

 

Deputy Speaker of the RS Assembly Nenad Stevandic has said there should be personnel changes in the Intelligence and Security Agency of B&H (OSA) if it is established that the intelligence officers from B&H eavesdropped on Serbian officials. He stresses how necessary it is to establish through the cooperation between the authorities at the state level and security services in B&H, RS and the Federation of B&H whether it is the case of abuse, thus to sanction and prevent the escalation of negative relations with Serbia or any other countries with the internal unforeseeable consequences.

He has noted that the anonymous letter, which his cabinet received on December 16, warned him that there was a problem in the security sector in B&H reflected in how OSA is treating Serbia (as a hostile country), which is one of the guarantors of the Dayton Peace Agreement. He has noted he formally forwarded the copy of this document to Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, B&H Presidency member from RS, Mladen Ivanic, Prime Minister of RS, Zeljka Cvijanovic, Speaker of the RS Assembly, Nedeljko Cubrilovic, and RS Interior Minister, Dragan Lukac, on 20 December.

Stevandic says that a copy of the letter has been sent to the Deputy Chairman of the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of B&H, Mladen Bosic, Deputy Chairman of the House of Peoples of B&H, Ognjen Tadic, President of the Security Committee of the Assembly of Republika Srpska, Milanko Mihajilica, Chairman of the Joint Committee on the B&H Intelligence and Security Agency (OSA) Oversight, Nikola Spiric. He has emphasized that, thereafter, this document must be analyzed in the RS Assembly and government.

 

Who will answer for leaking of secret documents from OSA? (Dnevni avaz)

 

RTRS has published that it is in possession of B&H Intelligence Security Agency (OSA) orders for wiretapping of Serbian officials. The RTRS presented the order ‘Proposal for carrying out of intelligence breach’ in its program and the document is dated July 2016, it has OSA’s logo on it and signatures of some of OSA officials.  RTRS claims that OSA is carrying out the operation ‘Usce’, where Serbian officials are being wiretapped and Serbia is declared hostile. At the same time, RTRS published scans of OSA’s documents on its website, which resulted in Serbian media to get involved into this story, under headlines “new scandal disturbed Balkans” and they try to prove that B&H acts in hostile manner towards Serbia.

According to the daily, the document, which RTRS published, was not signed by OSA Director Osman Mehmedagic and other senior OSA officials. Daily stressed that the question is how this document, which is labeled “secret” came out in the public, being that according to the Criminal Code of B&H, this act can be labeled as betraying of state secret or espionage.

Daily noted that the document itself, reads that there are information that Serbian security services are carrying out continued and offensive intelligence activities against B&H citizens and institutions and these activities are deem as “serious threat towards B&H security”. According to statements of people from intelligence community, this means that thesis have been switched and it is obvious that B&H institutions are carrying out counter-intelligence activities aimed to protect B&H’s interests and institutions. Second Deputy of President of Joint Commission for monitoring OSA work Safet Softic (SDA) told daily that he trusts that this matter will be discussed by the Commission. He said that there were no illegalities in the two years that he has been member of the Commission and added that he trusts that everything that OSA did is in line with the law. Softic also said that leaking of secret documents is a criminal act and line of responsibility has to be established.

 

Pahor: Slovenia must prepare well for border arbitration ruling in border dispute with Croatia (Hina)

 

Slovenia should be well prepared for an arbitration ruling in its border dispute with Croatia, which is expected to be delivered this year, and should refrain from making any statements that might upset the good bilateral relations, President Borut Pahor said at an annual meeting with Slovenian diplomats held in Brdo pri Kranju on Tuesday. “In anticipation of a ruling on the border by the arbitral tribunal, all those who lead or represent Slovenia and Croatia should avoid statements or acts that might worsen our relations,” Pahor said in his address. Pahor said that sincere efforts should be made to maintain good neighborliness and friendship and ensure that relations with Croatia do not deteriorate.

The Slovenian government insists that the arbitration, agreed in 2009 prior to Croatia's accession to the European Union, should continue, while Croatia has decided, based on a unanimous decision by its parliament two years ago, to get out of the arbitration process claiming that it has been irreversibly compromised by illegal communications between a Slovenian government official and a Slovenian representative in the tribunal. Slovenia is disappointed by Croatia's stance and hopes that the arbitral tribunal will deliver a binding ruling regardless of Zagreb's position.

 

Macedonia replies to Dacic: Politicians not to spoil friendship between two states (Nova/ Mkd.mk)

 

The Macedonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Jan. 3 that politicians should be responsible and never threaten the Macedonian-Serbian friendship. "This is also true while the atmosphere is so obviously heating up ahead of the next vote for Kosovo's membership of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)," the ministry said in reaction to Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic's message to the neighbors he had shared, promising not to allow "Serbia to be humiliated."

The Mkd.mk portal quoted sources from the Macedonian Ministry as saying off the record that similar statements could be interpreted as warning ahead of a new round of efforts by Kosovo to join the U.N. cultural wing, expected this coming spring. In November 2015, Macedonia, Croatia and Montenegro voted in favor of admitting Kosovo to the organization, and their "yes" was met by Belgrade's strong criticism. The Macedonian Ministry underlined that Macedonia and Serbia had shared very close and deep friendly ties, with the two nations sharing positive mutual feelings, and that the only thing left for politicians to do was to deepen the traditional friendship.

"If it's not possible, they should at least be responsible insofar as not to destroy the friendship between Macedonia and Serbia," the Ministry was clear. Reacting to the stance of the Macedonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said on Jan. 3 that he agreed that the friendship between Serbia and Macedonia should not be destroyed, adding that "Belgrade has never done anything nor will it do anything to harm Skopje" and that he wished that it was reciprocal. Dacic said he was deeply convinced of the need for friendly relations with Macedonia but that "I cannot pretend not to see" that Macedonia had recognized Kosovo and voted for admitting Kosovo to UNESCO and that Serbia had recognized Macedonia under its constitutional name, which was the most important state issue that Macedonia had.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Hague Tribunal Prepares for Shutdown in 2017 (BIRN, by Marija Ristic, 4 January 2017)

 

The UN war crimes tribunal for the former Yugoslavia will shut down in 2017 after more than two decades, but a handful of unfinished cases will continue, including the landmark case of Bosnian Serb military chief Ratko Mladic.

In what was intended to be the final extension of the judges’ mandate at the Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, ICTY, the UN Security Council prolonged the work of this ad hoc court for crimes committed during the 1990s wars to November 2017.

November 2017 is the final deadline for the tribunal to hand down verdicts in three remaining cases - two for war crimes in Bosnia and Herzegovina and one for contempt of court.

The most important is one of the largest cases in the ICTY’s history, the verdict in the trial of Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic, who is accused of genocide and war crimes in Serb-held territories in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The other is the appeal in the case of Jadranko Prlic, Bruno Stojic, Slobodan Praljak, Milivoje Petkovic, Valentin Coric and Berislav Pusic,six former Bosnian Croat leaders who were convicted in 2013 of committing war crimes in the area around the town of Mostar. The third remaining case relates to contempt of court in the trial of Vojislav Seselj, during which three of his Serbian Radical Party members allegedly bribed and intimidated witness not to appear before the ICTY and testify about his involvement in war crimes in Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia. The three wanted Radical Party members - Vjerica Radeta, Petar Jojic and Jovo Ostojic - are currently in Serbia, where the government has been refusing to extradite them on security grounds, despite the fact that the ICTY has issued an international arrest warrant. They have refused to appear in court voluntarily. For some of those who work the ICTY, the last year in its 23-year existence could be the hardest one. The court is struggling with time, first to ensure that the verdicts in the Mladic and Prlic cases happen in November without any delay, but also to keep its remaining staff until the end of 2017. To keep top legal experts in the field has been a struggle for the ICTY in its final years, as many judges and prosecutors left as the Tribunal started to approach its end. On the other hand, defence teams have been trying to prolong cases, arguing they were not given enough time to deal with the wide-ranging and complex case material. In the case of Mladic, there is also a fear he will not live long enough to see a final verdict due to his poor health which has already on several occasions prolonged his trial.

This would be a significant blow to the ICTY’s reputation as some of key Serb leaders from the war years have already died in detention - including former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and Croatian Serb leader Goran Hadzic.

 

Fugitives finally arrested

The ICTY filed indictments against 161 people, most of them high-ranking officials within the state, army or police apparatus, as the tribunal’s statute envisaged. Set up in 1993 by the UN Security Council to try people suspected of committing war crimes during what were at the time ongoing conflicts in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, it later expanded to include cases for the violations committed during the conflicts in Kosovo and Macedonia. It was the first war crimes court to be created by the UN and the first international war crimes tribunal since the Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunals. Over more than two decades, it heard almost 5,000 witnesses and held around 11,000 trial days. The ICTY will go down in history as the first court to charge an acting head of state of genocide and other crimes, although Slobodan Milosevic didn’t live long enough hear his verdict, as he died in 2006 before the end of his trial. However, the court did convict other 83 people, most of them from Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Tribunal ended the proceedings against 37 other people either due to their deaths, because the cases were transferred to their home countries or the indictments withdrawn. The final fugitives from international justice were arrested in the late 2000s, when three key Serb leaders - Radovan Karadzic, Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic - were tracked down in Serbia after years on the run. The ICTY convicted defendants of four types of crimes: genocide, crimes against humanity, violations of the laws and customs of war and grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions, and significantly contributed to the development of international law. The court helped to further develop definitions of genocide, torture, crimes against humanity and command responsibility, but it also delivered landmark verdicts in cases concerning sexual violence and the destruction of cultural heritage. Its work in the area of international law also helped in the establishment of the International Criminal Court, especially in developing the statute of the court and defining the crimes with which it deals.

 

Allegations of bias

Domestically, in the countries of the former Yugoslavia, the ICTY’s legacy is still very much disputed, however. According to a survey in 2011 by the Belgrade Centre for Human Rights, 66 per cent of people in Serbia believed the ICTY was not necessary and that it would be better for national courts to deal with such crimes. Almost 40 per cent of Serbians believed the purpose of the trials was to blame Serbs, while 73 percent thought the court was biased. There were similar feelings towards the ICTY in Croatia - 30 percent of Croatians thought the court was biased and 27 per cent that indictments were only issued against Croats. The court was often criticised for poor outreach strategy, especially in its first decade, and that the fact that it was far away from the communities in which the crimes took place made the job of communicating its mission even harder. In Bosnia and Herzegovina however, where the most of the crimes in former Yugoslavia took place, 56 per cent of people believed the establishment of the ICTY was a good move.

Overall, the court got more approval in Bosnia and Herzegovina than in Croatia and Serbia, although by no means was it universally respected in the country. Thirty-seven per cent of those questioned had positive attitudes towards the ICTY, while 40 per cent expressed negative ones.

Victims were often also disappointed with the ICTY’s work - especially with the controversial acquittals of Yugoslav Army general Momcilo Persic, Croatian generals Ante Gotovina and Mladen Markac and Kosovo Liberation Army commander Ramush Haradinaj. Some claimed that it was time to move beyond what they said was the redundant dilemma about whether the ICTY assisted in the process of reconciliation. They suggested that a more serious question should be asked: has the Tribunal fulfilled its broader mandate of “contributing to a restoration and maintenance of peace”? They also expressed doubts that the ICTY ever had the tools, or the full commitment, to do so. As the ICTY and its judges and staff were in The Hague, thousands of kilometres from the former Yugoslavia, the failure to ensure its messages were understood left a gap that was filled with propaganda, unfounded criticism and praise for war criminals by nationalist politicians and, often, by right-wing governments. A lot of ICTY convicts received hero’s welcomes when they returned home, while some of them even went on to hold official positions despite their war crime convictions. Allegations of bias were also made by some of the ICTY’s former judges, who believed that in some cases, the court had political agenda and excluded some evidence in order to serve Western powers. Nevertheless, the ICTY can claim an immense contribution to transitional justice in the huge archive it has amassed, with more than two million of pages of transcripts and documents now online. In the coming years, copies of these archives will be moved to the Bosnian capital Sarajevo, while negotiations are ongoing with other countries to have some parts of the archives stored there too. Bearing in mind that military archives are closed in most of the countries of the former Yugoslavia, this is a significant contribution to researchers, historians and media, enabling them to continue exploring different aspects of the 1990s wars.

 

After the ICTY

When the ICTY closes its doors in November 2017, its work will be carried on by the Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals, MICT, which was established in 2010 to continue the “jurisdiction, rights and obligations and essential functions” of the ICTY, and to maintain its legacy. MICT will finish all the cases left unconcluded by the ICTY - most of them appeals –including those from Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader sentenced to 40 years for genocide and war crimes, and Serbian Radical Party chief Vojislav Seselj, who was acquitted. It is also expected that MICT will take over Ratko Mladic’s case at the appeal stage.

MICT will also hear one case from the beginning, against former Serbian State Security officials Jovica Stanisic and Franko Simatovic, who have been sent for retrial after their initial acquittal. It is expected to start this year. On the ground, MICT will have two important tasks - to preserve and manage the archive of the ICTY and to assist in national jurisdiction. The latter has proved to be very difficult. Although there have been numerous training sessions for local prosecutors, liaisons officers were established local prosecution still defy to the instructions from the ICTY.

Bosnia is still making very slow progress in prosecuting cases that were transferred from the UN court, while Serbia rejects one the key ICTY rulings –that the Srebrenica massacres were genocide. In his latest address to the UN Security Council last month, ICTY and MICT chief prosecutor Serge Brammertz warned that in unless governments in former Yugoslav countries give their full support to war crimes prosecutions, justice cannot be done. “As long as the political environment and mindset do not support war crimes justice, it will be extremely difficult to meet the public’s legitimate expectations for meaningful accountability,” Brammertz said. While the ICTY managed to convict some of those responsible for some of the worst atrocities of the late 20th century, it did not find a way to counter some of the domestic hostility to holding war criminals to account.

 

Montenegro's NATO-Russia Chess Match (RFE/RL, by Gordana Knezevic, 2 January 2017)

 

Montenegro and Serbia are Russian President Vladimir Putin's "red line" in Europe, judging by year-end headlines in Belgrade's tabloid press.

Drawing on unnamed diplomatic sources, those stories in the Serbian capital claim that Putin has a plan for a new "world order" in which Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia-Herzegovina -- designated "militarily neutral states" -- would serve as buffers between NATO and Russia and its allies. The same sources are quoted as saying, in line with this vision, that Putin had advised U.S. President-elect Donald Trump not to "force through" Montenegro's membership in NATO.

The details of Putin's grand strategic plan may or may not be entirely accurate, but the extent of Moscow's hostility to Montenegrin NATO ambitions has been clear for some time. Podgorica has been under intense pressure from Moscow to drop its EU and NATO membership bids.

Given questions about the future direction of U.S. policy vis-a-vis Russia, there have been expressions of growing concern in Montenegro that its steadfastly pro-Western stance might go unrewarded. In that context, a prospective visit from a "troika" of U.S. senators was seen as a welcome show of support. John McCain (Republican-Arizona), Lindsay Graham (Republican-South Carolina), and Amy Klobuchar (Democrat-Minnesota) were expected to stop over in Montenegro on January 3 on their way back from a tour of the Baltics, Georgia, and Ukraine. As it turned out, the visit was postponed at the last minute, although McCain thanked Montenegro for its assistance in the global fight against terrorism and reiterated his support for Montenegro's NATO hopes. For some in Montenegro, NATO membership increasingly looks like a question of political life and death, as that small Balkan state finds itself on the front lines of what could become a new Cold War. Recent reports suggest Russia has applied pressure to derail Montenegro's NATO accession or EU integration.

For years, Russia's "new rich" have been investing in and acquiring property in Montenegro. In popular coastal resort towns like Budva, Russian is a second language, enjoying parity with Montenegrin. But relations have begun to sour. A case in point is Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska, once seen as a potential savior of Montenegro with his investment in local aluminum production, who is now suing the Montenegrin state over purported losses. Many Russians seemingly believed that their investment in Montenegro would be repaid in political influence.

Yet Podgorica remains stubbornly committed to forging ties with the West. This year Montenegro could become the 29th member of NATO, a process that could conclude with a ratifying vote in the Montenegrin parliament in the spring. (So far 19 of 28 NATO members have approved Montenegrin membership, which was endorsed in Warsaw in July, and the U.S. Senate could vote later this month on ratification.) Moscow has responded by ratcheting up the pressure.

Sergei Zheleznyak, a senior official within Russia's ruling United Russia party, issued a warning to the Montenegrin government on December 26, during his most recent visit to Belgrade. "The Montenegrin authorities are making a mistake in trying to speed up the country's entry into NATO, knowing that the majority of their people are opposed to this. An attempt to force through NATO membership is not in Montenegro's or NATO's best interests, and it can easily lead to instability in the country, in the Balkans, and inside NATO," Zheleznyak said after talks with officials from the Serbian ruling party. His statement echoed Moscow's official line. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed recently that "frantic attempts are being made to drag Montenegro into NATO" before the handover to the Trump administration in the United States in January. At a recent OSCE meeting in Hamburg, Lavrov said, "We are not interfering in this process, but I think that the unattractiveness of these frantic efforts is clear to everyone."

But reports of a botched coup in Montenegro in October could put a real dent in Lavrov's charge.

Montenegrin authorities last month issued international arrest warrants for Russians and Serbs accused of involvement in that purported plot, which allegedly sought to assassinate the Montenegrin prime minister and take over parliament on election day. Podgorica has said it has no evidence of high-level Russian official involvement in the abortive coup, and the Kremlin has denied involvement. But it could not have been reassuring for Montenegrin officials to see one of the suspects in the coup plot practically rubbing elbows with Russia's Lavrov last month. Russia's line about a lack of support for NATO membership in Montenegro also might not reflect reality. "The official invitation to join NATO and signing of the Accession Protocol were the best things that happened to Montenegro in 2016," Darko Sukovic, a prominent Montenegrin journalist, has said.