LOCAL PRESS

 

Albanian President to visit Serbia on 7 March, but he is not meeting with Nikolic (Novosti)

 

Albanian President Bujar Nishani is arriving in Bujanovac and Presevo tomorrow, while Novosti was confirmed by the Serbian President’s cabinet that there will be not meeting with President Nikolic, even though at issue is the first visit of an Albanian President since 1948 when Enver Hoxha visited Belgrade.

The President of the National Albanian Council Jonuz Musliu explained the fact that the Albanian President will not meet with the Serbian counterpart by saying that the election campaign started in Serbia. Musliu stated that Nishani was coming “to resolve the problem of the endangered rights of Albanians because this was envisaged by the Constitution of Albania”. Serbian labor Minister Aleksandar Vulin assessed this statement as dangerous. “Those speaking like that are enemies of both the Albanians and Serbs and peaceful life. Serbia is taking care of Albanians in our state, just as with any other citizen, taking care of the specific characteristics of every national community. Albanians and Serbs live in peace in Presevo and Bujanovac, they have the same problems as anyone else,” said Vulin.

 

Stefanovic: Visit by Albanian President to southern Serbia will not threaten security (Novosti)

 

Serbian Interior Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic said that he does not expect new tensions during the upcoming visit by Albanian President Bujar Nishani to southern Serbia, and said that the visit will not threaten security because “our guest feel welcome in Serbia.” Responding to questions by reporters whether he sees the visit by the Albanian president as an opportunity for new tension, he said that he hopes that there will be no provocations. “Our job is not to allow such tensions to threaten the security of the citizens, regardless of whether they live in Serbia, and we will try to have this visit pass like that,” said Stefanovic. “Our guests feel welcome in Serbia, regardless of whether we always like what they have to say. They are safe in the territory of our country,” Stefanovic pointed out. “We have taken many measures in the past two-three years, since the first instabilities started appearing in our region, in the form of terrorist attacks in Kumanovo, but also in the form of some terrorist attacks in B&H, the large number of migrants that passed through our country, political instabilities of some of our neighbors… all that threatened to spill over into our country,” said Stefanovic.

 

Ivanovic on situation in Kosovo (Beta)

 

SDP leader Oliver Ivanovic, under house arrest in Kosovska Mitrovica, said that the Brussels agreement is a good thing, because what matters most is that they are still talking. “I am not a big advocate of imposing the topics for talks, because what matters is that they can meet and talk,” Ivanovic told Beta, hoping that with certain political reservations, at some point the Serbian and Kosovo prime ministers might be calling each other by phone to announce some events. “They are unlikely to reach a consensus over the status of Kosovo soon. For Serbia, Kosovo is part of

Serbia, and Pristina, Brussels and Washington should not harbor any illusions in that respect. Serbia will never recognize Kosovo, and since it is not doing that, at least two great powers will not do that either, which means that the U.N. Security Council can only follow suit. In return, Kosovo will not be granted international recognition,” Ivanovic was specific.

 

Mogherini: Western Balkans is tense; EU must offer credible support (Beta/Tanjug)

 

The situation in the Western Balkans is tense - and strong and credible support from the EU is required, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini told reporters in Brussels on Monday. Ahead of a meeting of EU foreign and defense ministers, Mogherini said she would report about her tour of the Western Balkans last week, and also inform EU leaders about it on Thursday, and tell them that the situation there is exposed to challenges domestically, regionally and globally. “But it is a region that has in itself the capacity, the strength to react to that, to hold, provided that the credibility of the European integration process is there,” she said, and added: “So I expect from today, but also from the European Council later this week to express a strong and clear commitment to the Western Balkans, in terms of a credible European integration perspective.”

It is expected that conclusions will be adopted today that will be the basis for a report on the Western Balkans, which leaders of the 28 member-states will adopt at their summit on 9, 10 March in Brussels.

 

Vucic’s candidacy for Serbian President proclaimed (RTS/Tanjug/Beta)

 

The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) unanimously proclaimed Aleksandar Vucic for the candidate for the office of Serbian President on the elections set for 2 April on Sunday.

Vucic was the first proclaimed candidate and his candidacy was supported by the coalition of Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Social Democratic Party of Serbia (SDPS), United Serbia (JS), Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS), Movement of Socialists (PS), Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), Strength of Serbia Movement (PSS) and Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM). RIK determined on the session that out of 59.128 statements of support to Vucic’s candidacy, 56.516 were legally valid. Necessary number of signatures for accepting the candidacy is

10.000.

 

Jankovic’s candidacy for Serbian President proclaimed (Novosti)

 

RIK also proclaimed a non-party candidate and former ombudsman Sasa Jankovic for the candidate for the office of Serbian President on the elections for 2 April on Sunday evening. Jankovic submitted signatures of 17.886 signatures to RIK, while RIK determined that 17.134 were legally valid.

 

Seselj’s SRS submits signatures for presidential candidacy (Tanjug)

 

RIK received nearly 14,000 signatures supporting the presidential candidacy of the leader of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) Vojislav Seselj. The signatures were delivered by the head of the SRS party in Belgrade, Miljan Damjanovic. Seselj was not present at the RIK premises today, but his son Aleksandar was. RIK should now determine whether the signatures are valid, and confirm Seselj as a candidate. Damjanovic told reporters that he does not expect the 2 April voting to produce a winner in the first round, while Seselj and Aleksandar Vucic will have a serious due" in the runoff.

 

Canak: If I win I will recognize Kosovo independence (Novosti/RTS)

 

Kosovo was an independent state and not a part of Serbia and the state interests were to face these facts, the future candidate for President from League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV) Nenad Canak said on Sunday. “Problems that Serbia is facing are so big, numerous and request of us to take responsibility for the decision we must make. One of such decisions is to recognize factual independence of Kosovo. In the name of the peace in the Balkans, Serbia’s European future and historical reconciliation of the two people, I express my readiness to support such decision,” Canak stated.  “To recognize this fact means to attract anger to yourself. If we ignore it, this means to continue with policy of head-on collision with reality. From the policy of Presidential candidates, their system of values, integrity and, why avoid it, their personal courage, their relation towards Kosovo depends. We can keep on hiding behind platitudes about southern Serbian province, but the seriousness and responsibility of the office that we candidate for demands from us to stop any further self-deceiving,” Canak said.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Media publish content of Covic’s letter to ICJ (TV1)

 

B&H Presidency members have responded to the inquiry of the Registrar of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) related to the legitimacy of B&H's agent before the ICJ Sakib Softic within the prescribed deadline. In his letter to the ICJ, Croat member of the B&H Presidency Dragan Covic said that “B&H Presidency as collective institution of the state of B&H has not discussed the matters from your letter or decided on them until the moment this letter was written (March 1, 2017). B&H Presidency, as collective institution of the state of B&H, also failed to discuss your letter, and it did not come to a common stance or explanation regarding the contradiction described in your letter”. The content of letters sent to the ICJ by B&H Presidency members Bakir Izetbegovic and Mladen Ivanic is not known.

 

ICJ receives letters from members of B&H Presidency (Hayat)

 

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) received replies from offices of B&H Presidency members regarding the ICJ’s request to explain whether Sakib Softic is authorized to file a motion for revision of the ICJ’s ruling in the case of B&H’s lawsuit against Serbia. Reporter reminded that in its reply to the ICJ, Chairman of B&H Presidency Mladen Ivanic disputed legitimacy of Softic to represent B&H, while Bosniak member of B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic underlined that Softic is a legitimate agent of B&H. Croat member of B&H Presidency Dragan Covic informed the ICJ that B&H Presidency did not discuss and decide on matters from the ICJ’s letter for B&H Presidency.

 

Mektic announces SIPA will launch investigation on opening of ICJ’s letter to Ivanic (Nezavisne)

 

B&H Security Minister Dragan Mektic told press that an investigation will be launched through the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) of B&H to determine criminal responsibility of Ambassador of B&H to Netherlands Mirsada Colakovic for illegal opening of a diplomatic mail addressed to B&H Presidency Chair Mladen Ivanic. Mektic stated that he believes that the constitutional right to secrecy of mail was violated in this case.

 

Mogherini meets B&H Presidency members (BHT1)

 

EU High Representative Federica Mogherini paid a visit to B&H on Saturday and held meetings with members of the Presidency of B&H, Minister of Foreign Affairs of B&H Igor Crnadak and a delegation of the Council of Ministers of B&H (B&H CoM) led by Chairman Denis Zvizdic and Deputy Chairs of B&H CoM Vjekoslav Bevanda and Mirko Sarovic. Following the meetings, Mogherini addressed a joint press conference and stated that B&H has achieved impressive results on the EU path in the past 20 months, pointing out that those have been the first, initial steps which have not turned into concrete results yet. “In the past two years, B&H has registered impressive steps on the EU perspective. This is already bringing some first signals, for instance in the economic growth,” Mogherini underlined. Commenting on his meeting with Mogherini, Zvizdic told reporters that they discussed topics such as future challenges, political situation in the country and in the region as well as various kinds of political obstructions, tensions and blockades. Zvizdic emphasized that the tempo of accession to the EU depends on the speed of fulfillment of preconditions which were defined for the country. Reporter noted that, at her meeting with B&H Presidency members, Mogherini underlined that the EU will continue to support B&H when it comes to implementation of the Reform Agenda and finalization of answering of the European Commission’s (EC) Questionnaire.

After meeting with Mogherini, all B&H politicians reiterated their commitment to fulfillment of obligations on the country’s European path. In this regard, delegate in B&H House of Peoples (HoP) and SBB B&H leader Fahrudin Radoncic underlined that a dialogue is the only way to move forward on the European path. Republika Srpska (RS) President and SNSD leader Milorad Dodik stated that neither the RS nor him personally are against further movement of B&H on the European path, even though he considers that there are many challenges and issues. Head of SDS Caucus in the RS National Assembly (RSNA) and SDS leader Vukota Govedarica confirmed SDS’ willingness to sign a declaration on working “exclusively on future and on issues regarding how B&H should move towards European integration”.

 

Dodik returns from Russia: Russia played crucial role in matter of revision of lawsuit (Nezavisne)

 

Following his visit to Russia, Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik said that he is very satisfied with the discussions he had with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister and other officials. He underlined that Russia played a crucial role regarding the “artificial” revision of B&H lawsuit against Serbia, and very clearly expressed its opinion on this matter. “Of course, I had the opportunity to thank for continuous monitoring and support of Russia in many important matters. For this age and this political generation, the dominant thing is the fact that Russia put a veto in UN Security Council when they wanted to impose on Serbs the responsibility for a genocide that did not exist at all,” said Dodik.

 

Croatian minister hopes dialogue with Serbia’s judiciary will resume (Vecernji list)

 

Croatian Justice Minister Ante Sprlje has said that a list of 86 Croatian nationals whom Serbia wants to put on trial for war crimes was drawn up six years ago, and that he hopes that talks with Serbia's judiciary will resume after the forthcoming presidential elections in Serbia. Minister Sprlje elaborated that Serbia had not forwarded the list to Zagreb. The last list of this kind was made six years ago and it contains the names of 86 people, he said. “We sent them a list of 1,523 people, however, dialogue has faded away. I hope that we will resume (dialogue) after the elections in Serbia,” Sprlje said referring to suspects wanted in Croatia for war crimes.

Regarding the status of Croatian nationals who allegedly committed war crimes in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sprlje said that as soon as he became the minister, an analysis was made, and currently there are 400 (war crimes suspects). As for the salute “Ready for the Homeland” used by the Ustasha forces in WW2, Sprlje said that using this salute should be treated as misdemeanor, according to court rulings.

 

Zaev: I don’t expect violence and clashes (Meta/HRT)

 

SDSM’s party leader, Zoran Zaev in an interview given for the Croatian National Television (HRT) said that he doesn’t believe it will come to clashes and bloodshed in the country and if it was meant to happen it would have happened earlier. When asked whether he has betrayed the national interests with the acceptance of the requests of the Albanian parties, SDSM’s leader said that for the president of the state it was problematic because it wrote “a debate to be opened about the state symbols, the national emblem, the flag and the hymn” and “the formulation where armies from the past which were killing the civil population can be condemned.” “They are asking for a debate (the Albanian parties), they weren’t asking for decisions, nor were pointing at how. As participants in our joint society in which we all live, they want to express they own opinions. If we are a democratic country, we shouldn’t be afraid of a debate. There is a formulation where all armies from the past which were killing civilians to be condemned. There is nothing bad in that. Some would allude to Serbian armies, some say those were German, Italian or Bulgarian, during the times of the fascism or the Second Balkan War. But the condemnation of armies that were killings civilians is not something bad. Therefore, the excuse they have that someone has bad intentions towards Macedonia is without any grounds” said Zaev

 

VMRO-DPMNE calls for fresh elections (MIA)

 

VMRO-DPMNE calls on SDSM and its leader Zoran Zaev to accept the scheduling of fresh elections, which would also represent a vote on the Tirana platform. “Citizens did not vote for the Tirana platform at the December elections. This or any other platform drafted in another country cannot and must not be a condition for the government formation in Macedonia,” said VMRO-DPMNE in a press release. According to the party, it is important to prevent the consequences of the blackmail and implementation of the platform, which would result in Macedonia’s redefining and bears the risk of tensions. “If Zoran Zaev is not certain in his rating and support, we believe SDSM should reject the platform and all of its elements that lead to a bi-national state. In this case, VMRO-DPMNE will give its support to SDSM over the government formation as they wish,” reads the press release.

 

SDSM: Swift and peaceful power transfer (MIA)

 

The democratic processes have begun and the majority will of citizens shown through the 67 MP seats must be reflected through the formation of a new, reform-oriented government and independent democratic institutions, SDSM said on Saturday. The party says the calls for fresh elections represent an attempt to delay and deepen the political crisis. “If the majority will of citizens is not respected, it will not be taken into consideration even if new elections are held,” says SDSM and adds that a swift and peaceful power transfer is required. According to the party, a vast majority of people opted for unity, changes, justice and life at the early parliamentary elections.

 

DUI decides to take part in new government (MIA)

 

The Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) presidency unanimously decided late Friday to support SDSM and take part in the formation of the new government. DUI has also urged President Gjorge Ivanov to reassess his decision not to give the mandate to SDSM leader Zoran Zaev over the government formation. “This was the final meeting and the decision was passed unanimously,” said DUI leader Ali Ahmeti. He added that if the President fails to give the mandate, options over a government vote in the parliament would be considered, which is regulated in the Constitution and the Parliament’s Rules of Procedure. Ahmeti does not think the 67 MPs who supported SDSM’s Zaev would back down on the decision. Regarding the scheduling of the local elections, he stressed they should be held within the prescribed term - May 2017. “We urge Ivanov to give the mandate for the government formation. At the same time, we call on Ivanov and all political parties to use caution in their statements, not jeopardizing the common future of the people. By giving the signatures for the mandate, DUI also supports the new parliamentary majority and the new government, the Framework Agreement, and is committed to the rule of law and the country's NATO and EU integration,” said party spokesman Bujar Osmani. He added that DUI's participation in the new government reflects the will of Albanians expressed at the 11 December elections, and aims to fulfill the program promised before citizens. In addition, DUI will ask for complete assessment of the party’s activities since its formation in 2002, under international monitoring.

 

Duncan: 67 out of 120 is a clear majority, Ivanov should reconsider his decision (Meta)

 

Sir Alan Duncan, Minister for Europe and the Americas has sent a clear message to President Gjorge Ivanov to reconsider his decision not to give the mandate to Zoran Zaev. “67 newly elected MPs representing different communities across Macedonia have asked to form a government. 67 out of 120 is a clear majority. President Ivanov should reconsider his decision,” was the message from Sir Alan Duncan posted on the official website of the British Foreign Office.

 

Opposition ready for dialogue for a caretaker government (TV Klan)

 

Hours after ruling coalition invited for dialogue, Albanian opposition said it is ready to sit down on the dialogue table “for a caretaker government that would guarantee free and fair elections.” This means that the Democratic Party led opposition forces do not withdraw from their main condition, which is Prime Minister Edi Rama’s resignation in favor of a caretaker government. The Lulzim Basha led opposition said in a statement they are ready for a true dialogue with ruling coalition’s representatives aimed at creating conditions for free and fair elections, through a government with broad political support that will guarantee: The full implementation of decriminalization law, Efficient war against drug trafficking, organized crime and drug’s money, preparation of free and fair elections, implementation of judicial reform, according to the constitutional provisions of July 22. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama has previously excluded any possibility to resign and pave the way for caretaker government.

 

Mogherini: Albania is Europe, we want it in EU (TV Klan)

 

The High EU Representative Federica Mogherini said that Albania is Europe and we want Albania to be part of our European Union. Speaking to the Tirana University students together with Albanian FM Ditmir Bushati, Mogherini said, she believes “our Union will not be complete until all the Western Balkans joins our community… Our Union will not be complete until all the Western Balkans join the European Union. The door of the European Union is open for this country, for the region, and we want you to enter the European Union; Albania and the entire region. This is the clear message that I am bringing.” As the key issues, before the EU start the negotiations with Albania, Mogherni mentioned the free and fair elections in June and the implementation of the judiciary reform. “We need the Albanian leadership to take the consequent decisions in terms of implementation of the reform that was taken last year. I believe, I hope, that decisive steps including the vetting can be implemented and that it can be a continuous progress in all five key priorities,” she said.

During her visit in Albania, Mogherini met separately with Albanian President, Bujar Nishani, Parliamentary Speaker, Ilir Meta, Prime Minister Edi Rama and opposition Leader, Lulzim Basha.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Macedonia’s Crisis has Become Existential (BIRN, by Timothy Less, 6 March 2017)

 

The long-running political crisis in the divided Balkan country has entered a new and more dangerous phase.

Macedonia’s long-running political dispute has just taken a dramatic turn for the worse, transforming a crisis of corruption and governance into a burgeoning crisis of state.

President Gjorge Ivanov on Wednesday last week refused to give a governing mandate to a diverse coalition of political parties whose stated objective is an enhanced status for Macedonia’s large Albanian minority. In the process, Ivanov has temporarily - and perhaps more permanently - shut Albanians out of the political process, with potentially serious consequences. The backdrop to this move was a set of EU-sponsored elections in December, which were supposed to bring a two-year political crisis to an end. The idea was to restore the legitimacy of government after revelations of gross corruption in the main party of government, VMRO-DPMNE. Either VMRO-DPMNE would gain a fresh democratic mandate or the opposition Social Democratic Party, SDSM, would be elected. Either outcome was supposed to put a full stop on matters.

However, neither VMRO-DPMNE nor the SDSM won enough seats to form a government - even in coalition with the main Albanian party, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, which lost much of its support because of its long association with VMRO-DPMNE.

Instead, the balance of power was held by two new Albanian parties, Besa and the Alliance for Albanians, which campaigned on a platform of enhanced rights for Albanians in what they argued was a state run primarily in the interests of its Macedonian majority. Unable to form a government without the help of Besa and the Alliance for Albanians, the DUI turned for help to Albania’s prime minister, Edi Rama, who summoned the leaders of the various Albanian parties to a summit in Tirana. What then emerged was a joint declaration, which set out their conditions for entry into government with either one of the main Macedonian parties. This declaration was a radical document. It effectively demanded that Macedonia be redefined as a binational state comprised of two equal partners - Macedonians and Albanians - rather than as a Macedonian national state with a tolerated Albanian minority. Its more innocuous demands included the right to proportional representation for Albanians in the institutions of government where their numbers fell short, especially the security services and the judiciary, and a proportional share of the budget revenues - in effect, a request for completion of the 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement. More controversially, the declaration demanded the official use of Albanian everywhere in the country, not just the western part where Albanians predominate; a debate on revision of the flag, anthem and state symbols; Albanians’ involvement in a resolution of the dispute over Macedonia’s name with Greece [potentially implying abandonment of the name “Macedonia”]; and the adoption of a resolution in parliament condemning alleged genocide against Albanians in the early-20^th century. Unsurprisingly, these demands were anathema to the majority Macedonian population, which is engaged in a project of building a national state based on Slavic Orthodoxy, the Macedonian language and a purported lineage from ancient Macedonia – most graphically expressed in the rebuilding of Skopje at huge expense in a mock-classical style.

 

Gulf too wide to bridge

This inevitably led to complications in forming a government. At first the Albanians, led by the DUI, began negotiations with VMRO-DPMNE, making the issue of language rights a sine qua non. When negotiations failed, the Albanian parties then turned to the SDSM, which insisted on no changes to the constitution. Eventually, however, it agreed to a new law on language and notified the president that it had the necessary signatures to form a majority government.

No sooner had this happened than thousands of ethnic Macedonians took to the streets to decry what they saw as a takeover of the Macedonian state by ethnic Albanians, organised by Tirana and supported by treacherous politicians from the SDSM, who were happy to sell out the country for the sake of power. There is some uncertainty about the identity of these protestors. Many are undoubtedly members and clients of VMRO-DPMNE, which desperately wants to prevent the formation of an SDSM-led government and the party’s relegation to the opposition. However, the main group organising the protests, the Civic Initiative for a United Macedonia, denies links with VMRO-DPMNE and is likely to have a wider constituency. A poll in January suggested that 90 per cent of ethnic Macedonians are opposed to a new language law, and the demonstrations undoubtedly take their strength from a broader nationalist backlash. This was the context in which President Ivanov, a moderate nationalist who is close to VMRO-DPMNE, refused to grant a mandate to the new SDSM-led government. On Wednesday last week, he emphasised both the risk to Macedonia’s integrity of recasting the country as a binational state, and the violation of sovereignty implicit in accepting a political platform which was, he claimed, scripted by a foreign government. In doing so, however, he has plunged Macedonia into a new and more dangerous phase of its long-running political crisis.

 

Only hope is that Albanians remain calm

What happens next is an open question. In a best-case scenario, Western diplomats succeed in pressurising the key actors to compromise, the Albanian parties drop their demands for a binational state, at least for now, and Ivanov recognises the basic legitimacy of the Albanians’ grievances. In short order, Ivanov would then look for some arrangement that allowed a continuation of inter-ethnic power-sharing on which Albanians’ stake in the country depends.

In due course, he would then initiate a dialogue between Macedonians and Albanians about forging a more equitable state. That way, he could transform what is currently an ultimatum by the Albanian parties into a formal negotiating process with give and take on both sides.

However, the immediate prospects of a breakthrough are limited. In his statement, Ivanov stated that he would not bargain away Macedonia’s “sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence”. At the same time, there is no immediate hope of the Albanians backing down. Even if the DUI could be persuaded to pursue a graduated approach, the more ideological Besa and the Alliance for Albanians are committed to delivering the key elements of the joint declaration of the Albanian parties. Meanwhile, the leverage of outside actors to shape internal outcomes is waning, particularly among VMRO-DPMNE and its supporters who have accused Western diplomats of gross interference in Macedonia’s internal affairs. If this scenario proves elusive, then Macedonia is probably looking at fresh parliamentary elections in a few months’ time when the country holds scheduled local elections. Unfortunately, however, these may not provide much remedy. Opinion polls point to a similar outcome to last December’s ballot, while new elections will do nothing to overcome the impasse in which Albanians are conditioning their participation in government on demands that are unacceptable to most Macedonians. This raises the possibility of a much more dangerous scenario in which VMRO-DPMNE and Ivanov, backed by Macedonian conservatives at home and Russia abroad, effectively exclude Albanians from government on an indefinite basis as a means of thwarting their demands. The question then is how Albanians would respond. Ideally, a combination of international and domestic political pressure would mean that matters were eventually resolved and the Albanians did not do anything too drastic in the meantime. But if the impasse dragged on, the risk is that Albanians would switch their focus from seeking equal partnership with Macedonians to creating a devolved Albanian entity in the west of the country, which Albanians could run in their own interests. With some variations, this would amount to a repeat of the circumstances that led to civil conflict in 2001 when the Macedonian army sought to wrest control of territory from Albanians who had repudiated the authority of the central government. Worse still, this drama would play out at time when tensions between Serbs and Albanians in neighbouring Kosovo are running high. Only a radical optimist would bet on two parallel disputes over power and territory between Albanians and their Slavic neighbours not, in some way, joining up.

 

Danger of sliding into an abyss

The immediate issue is who makes the next move. The DUI’s leader last week urged Albanians not to take any steps that might transform a “systematic crisis into an ethnic conflict” and Besa has also urged “restraint and caution”. Both can no doubt foresee a situation in which hasty Albanian action provokes a hostile reaction from angry Macedonians. In the meantime, VMRO-DPMNE and Macedonian nationalists remain on the streets, pursuing tactics that could well bring about the very thing they want avoid - a de facto partition of the Macedonian state.

Two years on from the first revelations of corruption, Macedonia’s political crisis has now become existential in nature. The best hope for stability is the willingness of local parties to step back from the brink and avoid a potentially violent escalation. But with Western leverage limited, and the country fractured by the impact of the political crisis, there are no guarantees of a happy outcome. Policymakers everywhere should be planning for worse to come.

Timothy Less is the director of the Nova Europa political risk consultancy and a former British diplomat in Macedonia. The opinions expressed in the Comment section are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.