LOCAL PRESS 

Vucic: Haradinaj should not waste kerosene traveling to US if he is hoping for a final agreement (TV Pink/Tanjug/RTV/RTS) 

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says that there can be talks in Washington only on established topics. Vucic says Haradinaj can turn his plane around immediately and not waste any kerosene if he is traveling to Washington for a final agreement, because it will not be there.

“We can talk about every topic, but for them to get everything, while we get nothing, and recognize them - they won’t be watching that movie,” Vucic told TV Pink. He stressed that all kinds of things are possible, but while he is of a sound mind something like that will not happen,” Vucic said. He said the upcoming talks would certainly not be easy. As for the Serbian sanctities in Kosovo and Metohija, he announced that this would be a topic of conversation in Brussels. He pointed out that Serbia cannot guarantee their safety since it has not had authorities in the area since the withdrawal of the army and police, but that is also didn’t have them partly during the war. “By constantly pointing out, and with great struggle, I am convinced that we will be able to save our sanctities,” he said. Vucic said he had received certain papers from the Republika Srpska (RS), and that he was expecting certain decisions by the RS parliament, so he would think through how should Serbia position itself concerning this issue. Vucic didn’t specify what papers and decisions he had in mind but mentioned this in the context of challenges expecting Serbia, primarily, as he said, regarding the issue of Kosovo and Metohija.

Dacic on upcoming White House meeting (Studio B/FoNet/RTV) 

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic stated today that the economy will be discussed at the meeting of the representatives of Belgrade and Pristina in the White House on 2 September, but that does not exclude the possibility of some political topics. That is good, because a compromise has never been discussed in Washington before, since the Americans thought that the issue of Kosovo had been resolved, said Dacic. He stated that many European countries are not thrilled that the US will have a role in the process of normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina. Some European countries do not want to help US President Donald Trump in his election campaign, said Dacic, noting that half a million votes of Serbs living in the US can play an important role in the presidential elections. During his guest appearance on Studio B TV, Dacic stated that serious talks on the future of Serbia are ahead and that Belgrade will be asked to decide whether it will be on the side of Moscow and China. The EU believes that Belgrade should accept every position of Brussels. If you do that, you will probably encounter negative reactions from other countries, said Dacic, adding that Serbia is no longer weak, since it has changed its political position on the international scene.

REGIONAL PRESS 

 

RS politicians and analysts react to initiative of Nelson to change constitution (RTRS)

Analysts and politicians in Republika Srpska (RS) reacted to the statement recently made by US Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Eric Nelson who said in an interview for Voice of America that the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) needs to be reformed. Serb member of the B&H Presidency Milorad Dodik said that changes to the Constitution of B&H are not possible without the approval of the RS. He stressed that changes can be discussed when the original DPA is respected and the RS has their own suggestions. Analysts believe the initiative of Nelson gives a chance to the RS but there is a possibility for misuses. Dodik stressed that the previous illegal changes imposed in the past years cannot be implemented into the new document because this would mean legislative violence. He highlighted that it is necessary to return to the original DPA and the RS will request for people with constituent status to have the right to self-determination.  Professor at the Faculty of Law in the University of Istocno Sarajevo Radomir Lukic said that the B&H Constitution can only be changed in the B&H Parliament and the agreement of both entities is required for this. He added that the DPA survived the test of times and to change its structure would lead into autocracy. According to Lukic, the initiative of Nelson has in mind the unitization of B&H and the disappearance of the RS. Political analyst Aleksandar Pavic said that the US diplomats do not wish to change the DPA for the wellbeing of Serbs and the RS, but in accordance with their own interests. He stressed that one of those principles is the accession of B&H to NATO. Dodik said that the RS does not want NATO membership, but they do not oppose to discuss changes to the Constitution. He stressed that changes are possible only by an agreement of the sides in B&H and those are the RS and the Federation of B&H. “Our request will be to add into the new constitutional order that people with constituent status have the right to self-determination and this needs to be written in the Constitution,” said Dodik.  Spokesman of SNSD Radovan Kovacevic said that B&H is not a member of the Membership Action Plan (MAP) and will not become a NATO member because the RS will never agree to something like this. He stressed that there is no need to change the Constitution because of this.

Other reactions of politicians to statement of Ambassador Nelson (N1)

The announcement of US Ambassador to B&H Eric Nelson how a reform of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) is necessary sparked numerous reactions in B&H and revealed difference in opinions between various political groups in the country. He stressed that reforms are necessary because citizens want to be part of NATO and they need to see progress. Nelson highlighted that the DPA is the Constitution of B&H and every Constitution needs to be kept alive and improved with changes and amendments. According to him, there are several constitutional issues that need to be worked on in order for the country to fulfill standards of NATO. MP of SDA in the B&H parliament Adil Osmanovic said that changes to the B&H Constitution are welcome and B&H needs changes that will bring it closer to the Euro-Atlantic path. He commented on the statement of SNSD leader Milorad Dodik, saying that one cannot advocate reforms and oppose the Euro-Atlantic path of B&H. HDZ B&H stated that they want to preserve the constituent status of the Croat people and equality alongside the other two peoples with constituent status. President of HDZ B&H Dragan Covic said that until there is a clear two third majority in the B&H parliament it is clear that this will not be discussed further.

Una-Sana Canton bans movement and transportation of migrants (N1)

The authorities of the Una-Sana Canton (USK) decided on Wednesday to ban all entrance and transportation of migrants on the territory of this canton. Suhret Fazlic, the mayor of canton's administrative center – Bihac said he supports the protests that have been taking place in this part of the country and protesters' demands to finally solve the issue of the migrant crisis in this canton. During the session of the USK Operational Group, an order was issued to ban the movement of migrants outside the temporary of migrant reception centers in the canton, as well as any other type of their movement. The Operational Group also ordered the relocation of migrants from the streets, abandoned buildings, private accommodations and other places. The Group prohibited the transportation of migrants by any means towards or inside the territory of the canton. The decision comes just days after a series of protests took place in two of the most affected cities in the country by the migrant crisis, Velika Kladusa and Bihac. The residents there say they are afraid to walk out in the evening hours because of the gangs of migrants clashing and stealing from other residents. According to the latest cantonal and International Organization for Migrations estimates, some 7,000 migrants reside in this canton, which is closest to the border with Croatia. Of this number, the authorities say some 3,000 reside in migrant shelters while others roam the streets.

RS to purchase one million Covid-19 vaccines from Russia (Nova BH)

Head of the RS Representative Office in Russia Dusko Perovic stated that the RS intends to purchase one million Russian Covid-19 vaccines which should be available by the end of the year. Perovic has approached three producers on behalf of the Representative Office. “I have made official request to all three companies, and RS Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic sent, as agreed, a letter to the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to B&H Petr Ivancov, so we have officially received a confirmation of, to say, getting in line” said Perovic. B&H Presidency member Milorad Dodik stated that he intends to visit Russia in the fall and complete the necessary procedures for obtaining the vaccines.  “Russia is not forcing anyone to anything. If Russia is ready to vaccinate their own people, then we should not be having doubts about this. Vaccination here will be voluntary, no one will be forced”.

 

How and when did Abazovic plan cooperation with the deniers of Montenegro? (CdM)

 

Judging by the messages has been sending and the activities he has been undertaking, president of URA CIVIL Movement and holder of “Crno na bijelo” list, Dritan Abazovic, knew from the beginning of this year what political side he was going to take after elections. First in January he said that the reunion in Cetinje, which was organized against religious processions, was nationalistic and then in spring he had a meeting with the rector of the seminary in Cetinje and priest of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Gojko Perovic, only to state a couple of days ago that he was ready for the pre-election coalition led by Democratic Front (DF). This year’s political direction of the leader of URA looks like this. Everything that has been taking place since the beginning of year until the moment it was confirmed that Zdravko Krivokapcic also expected alliance with Abazovic, indicates that Abazovic had planned it all long time ago. Chronologically, it looks like this. As a sovereign, Abazovic harshly condemned reunion in Cetinje. “There was a celebration of nationalism in Cetinje, celebration clerical, with elements of fascism,” Abazovic said on 23 January in “Nacisto” TV show. But when people cheer at Serbia and Kosovo and deny Montenegro, then it’s not nationalism for Abazovic. Statement made by a priest from Serbia provoked no Abazovic’s attention either. “Those who vote for this law, they should have never been born because they will be looking at how their seed is being destroyed, and how their name is uttered with shame as they will be rejected by fraternity and family, buried out of graves as dark, evil ones, who took their own life,” was the statement of a priest. This was not contentious for Abazovic. This year Abazovic held several meetings with the priest Gojko Perovic, which was confirmed by the photo CdM published recently and Gojko Perovic himself. The last confirmation that Abazovic cooperates with negators of Montenegro came in the show of TV A1, where he announced pre-election alliance with DF. Some members of URA left the party, angry at such URA politics. Finally, there’s encouragement of Zdravko Krivokapic, who said that URA was one of the three political pillars of the victory of the opposition.

Djukanovic: Montenegro will protect every citizen and resist nationalism (CdM)

The state of Montenegro will protect every citizen and adequately resist the increasingly present attacks of nationalism, said the president of the Democratic Party of Socialists, Milo Djukanovic, during his visit to Berane as part of the campaign for the parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 August. He said that Berane is an inseparable part of Montenegro and the center of the northern region, whose inhabitants have a special contribution to preserving the values ​​that Montenegro is proud of, such as multiethnicity, multi-confessionalism and anti-fascism. "There have been recent vandal and uncivilized attempts from well-known kitchens to disrupt these values, by causing fear and discomfort among a number of citizens, primarily members of minority nations," Djukanovic said. He expressed special respect for all the efforts that the local DPS board is making to preserve these values, despite the difficult situation. In that context, he reminded of the duty of local government to be a partner of the executive power.

"Djukanovic emphasized that the DPS policy is characterized by determination in preserving peace and stability, adopting democratic standards and European and Euro-Atlantic values, and especially an affinity for more dynamic economic development and job creation, in order to improve the overall quality of life of Montenegrin citizens."  He pointed out that the choice of Montenegrin citizens on 30 August has never been easier, because they essentially choose between a policy that allows them prosperity and a better future and a wide range of political offers that do not shy away from sacrificing the future of their own country, the return of Montenegrin society to the Middle Ages, openly wishing for subordination, attachment to theocracy, loss of statehood and service to other people's interests. As he said, although this is another challenge like many we had in the previous period and in the previous elections, their task is to defeat them on 30 August, and to continue to be the pillars of a progressive policy that guarantees European quality of life to all citizens of Montenegro.

Popovic: Coalition Victory - Decisively for Montenegro the only guarantor of preserving Euro-Atlantic path and sovereignty (CdM)

The fateful day for Montenegro is 30 August, and our obligation, within the electoral list Decisively for Montenegro, is to preserve the Euro-Atlantic path and the sovereignty of Montenegro, said the president of the Liberal Party, Andrija Popovic. I must not even think what would happen to Montenegro if the political wings of the Serbian Orthodox Church, led by the DF, the Democrats and the URA, managed to form a parliamentary majority. The path of development would be completely stopped, all economic and social issues would be ignored and their policy would be, as they announced, annulment of decisions on NATO membership, recognition of Kosovo and annulment of the Law on Freedom of Religion, all leading to a new referendum on independence of Montenegro and towards severe temptations for citizens. As he said, the state interest is above it all, and the coalition "Decisively for Montenegro" of the DPS and the Liberal Party has no right to electoral defeat. Their victory, as he said, is the only guarantee of preserving the status of independent Montenegro and all the achievements that the state has achieved.

 

OSCE will monitor the elections in Montenegro with a limited number of observers (RTCG)

 

Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Safety in Europe cooperation (OSCE) will monitor parliamentary elections with a limited number of observers in Montenegro on 30 August. A statement posted on the OSCE website said it was the first observation activity of the Parliamentary Assembly after the outbreak of coronavirus pandemics. Vice President of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Margareta Cederfelt has been appointed Special Coordinator of the Special Limited Mission for Election Monitoring (SLEOM), which will have 12 observers. It is stated that the observers of the Parliamentary Assembly will closely cooperate with the Limited Election Observation Mission that will be deployed by the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights OSCE. Cederfelt said that the elections on 30 August are important not only for democratic development of Montenegro and its international aspirations, but also as a sign of the gradual reopening of Europe after quarantine measures introduced due to the corona virus pandemic.

 

SDSM unveils new cabinet line-up (MIA)

SDSM unveiled its list of candidates for ministers in the new government after a two-hour session of the party’s Central Board late Wednesday. According to SDSM leader and next Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, Oliver Spasovski will be Minister of Interior, Radmila Shekerinska will be Defense Minister, and Bojan Marichikj will be Minister of Justice. Blagoj Bochvarski will head up the Ministry of Transport and Communications, Jagoda Shahpaska will head up the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, and Irena Stefovska will be the new Minister of Culture. Venko Filipche remains Health Minister, Mila Carovska will head up the Ministry of Education and Science, while current Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov will take over as Deputy Prime Minister in charge of European Affairs. In addition, Fatmir Bitikji will be Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, whereas Ljupcho Nikolovski will be Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Fight Against Corruption. Zaev pointed out these are professional, responsible, accountable and dedicated individuals who will fully implement the program and principles in the new, full, four-year term. In the new government, he noted, there will be 19 ministers instead of 26, or seven less than before. According to Zaev, SDSM’s Central Board concluded that the right and principled policies leading the country forward have won. He underlined that the priorities of the new government include economy, judicial reform, capital infrastructure projects, environment and investment in health. The implementation of the Prespa Agreement with Greece, the Friendship Treaty with Bulgaria, as well as the Ohrid Framework Agreement continues. “Both Ahmeti and I, and SDSM and DUI agreed that I head the government for four years, while in the last 100 days the Prime Minister will be proposed by DUI and by mutual agreement. The parliamentary majority will respect the spirit of cooperation which includes dialogue, respect for the opinion of others based on arguments and building consensual democracy instead of parallelism, ethnocentrism and outvoting. SDSM and DUI are already aligning their election platforms into a joint four-year government program,” Zaev pointed out.

Earlier on Wednesday, DUI revealed its candidates. Artan Grubi as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Political System, Fatmir Besimi as Minister of Finance, Bujar Osmani as Foreign Minister, Kreshnik Bekteshi to head up the Ministry of Economy, and Naser Nuredini to head up the Ministry of Environment, according to leader Ali Ahmeti.

An agreement is yet to be made with coalition partners on the Ministry of Information Society, while Talat Xhaferi will be elected parliament speaker on Thursday, Ahmeti added after a meeting of DUI’s General Council in Tetovo. In addition, following a meeting of the ‘WeCan’ coalition partners earlier on Wednesday, Besa leader Bilal Kasami confirmed his party will take over the agriculture department, but the minister to head up the department is yet to be announced. According to Kasami, Besa will also be part of other echelons of the government and have deputy ministers and heads of institutions.

‘We Can’ coalition partners back SDSM-DUI deal, set to decide on ministers in new gov’t (MIA)

SDSM leader Zoran Zaev and Secretary General Ljupcho Nikolovski met Wednesday with party leaders and officials within the ‘We Can’ coalition. According to SDSM, coalition partners fully supported the coalition agreement reached with DUI, as well as values and principles arising thereof in terms of swift transformation of the country. Zaev presented to the participants in the meeting the main priorities of the new government for the next 4-year term. He said that all political parties within the ‘We Can’ coalition will propose quality, responsible and accountable individuals who are ready to fully deliver on the program commitments and principles of the new government. “The primary focus of the new SDSM-led government will be on increasing the economic standard and even greater care for all. We’ll firmly commit to public administration reform, cleansing of judiciary, inspecting the origin of office holders’ finances and assets, as well as non-selective and comprehensive fight against crime and corruption at all levels,” Zaev underlined. “We’re strongly motivated to provide clean air and a healthy environment through wide mobilization of all capacities,” he added. “Certainly, one of the main priorities is progress in the process of European integration with the start of negotiations and opening the first chapters. To achieve this, we need honest, responsible and professional individuals to lead institutions. Zaev congratulated the coalition partners on winning the 15 July elections, pointing out that the victory has affirmed the European path of the country. “This gives us the honor and obligation to do even more work at home in the next four-year term,” Zaev noted. After the meeting, Besa leader Bilal Kasami confirmed his party will take over the agriculture department, but the minister to head up the department is expected to be announced after a meeting of the party’s Central Council Wednesday evening. According to Kasami, Besa will also be part of other echelons of the government and have deputy ministers and heads of institutions. “The Besa movement will have an important role in the ruling majority. We’ll take over the agriculture department and certainly have an important role in other echelons of the government, in terms of deputy ministers and heads of important institutions. This will be of benefit to all citizens regardless of their party or other affiliation. All Besa officials will be in their service,” Kasami said. He said that the party’s Central Council will hold a meeting scheduled for 7 pm on Wednesday, when among other things, a decision is expected on a minister of agriculture.

On the other hand, Samka Ibraimovski, leader of the Party for Full Emancipation of Roma People (PCER), said that in the new government composition his party would lose what it already had. “We’re losing what we already had – a minister without portfolio in charge of implementation of the strategy for Roma. We didn’t get enough votes at the starting point,” Ibraimovski said after the meeting.

Ahmeti says Xhaferi to be elected speaker on Thursday, reveals DUI candidates for ministers (MIA)

Following Wednesday’s meeting of DUI’s General Council, leader Ali Ahmeti announced the names of the candidates for DUI ministers in the new government after an agreement was reached with SDSM on distribution of departments. “Tomorrow we’ll elect the Parliament Speaker, our friend Talat Xhaferi, and then our other friends – Artan Grubi as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Political System, Fatmir Besimi as Minister of Finance, Bujar Osmani as Foreign Minister, Kreshnik Bekteshi to head up the Ministry of Economy, Naser Nuredini to head up the Ministry of Environment, and an agreement is to be made with the coalition partners on the Ministry of Information Society,” Ahmeti said. In response to a reporter’s question on how disagreements among the party members have been overcome with regards to these candidate proposals, Ahmeti said there had been a debate but all decisions have been agreed upon. “DUI has always been transparent, and eventually everyone backed the decision that was reached by majority,” he noted. According to the DUI leader, as has been the case in the past, the future government will also make all decisions with the democratic principle of consensus. As regards Naser Ziberi, who was a Prime Minister candidate, Ahmeti pointed out that Ziberi continues his work as a notary and a possible post will be decided on in the future. Ahmeti told members of the Council that 105,000 votes and 15 MP seats have rightly made DUI winner at the early parliamentary polls in July. “This government will continue the path towards European integration and Euro-Atlantic partnership, and will protect the Prespa Agreement, the Friendship Treaty, and the Ohrid Accord, but it will also carry out vetting in politics and judiciary, and focus on economic-development,” Ahmeti underlined.

PES welcomes agreement for social democrat-led government in North Macedonia (MIA)

The Party of European Socialists (PES) welcomes the coalition agreement reached yesterday between the Social Democrats (SDSM) and the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), which will see Social Democrat leader Zoran Zaev return as Prime Minister of North Macedonia.

“This is a great moment for North Macedonia. Under the steady leadership of Zoran Zaev, the country can now continue on its democratic, European path. We commend the agreement that has been reached and we hope that it will be progressed quickly, so the new Zoran Zaev-led government can be approved by parliament and can get to work,” PES President Sergei Stanishev said. SDSM and Zoran Zaev, Stanishev added, have been the driving force behind positive change in North Macedonia. “Thanks to them unemployment has shrunk, social conditions have improved, and North Macedonia has joined NATO and cleared the path for future EU accession. The European social democratic family is fully committed to supporting Zoran Zaev, the new government and the whole of North Macedonia as it makes its journey towards a progressive, European future,” Stanishev noted. The new government platform will now be submitted for parliamentary approval. As part of the collation agreement, Zoran Zaev and DUI leader Ali Ahmeti have said their partnership will resume the country’s Euro-Atlantic path and continue internal reforms, PES press release added.

 

President Meta welcomes the political agreement in North Macedonia (Radio Tirana)

President Ilir Meta welcomed the finalization of the agreement for the formation of the new government in North Macedonia, considering it as another positive step for the strengthening of democratic institutions and the progress of reforms. Through a post on Facebook, President Meta says that we should learn from them and get back on track as soon as possible, starting with the observance of the 5 June Agreement and the fulfillment of all other conditions. “The finalization of the agreement for the formation of the new government in North Macedonia is another positive step for the strengthening of democratic institutions and the progress of reforms.

The increase of the representation of the Albanian factor in the government, including the possibility of the Albanian Prime Minister in the future, is a Europeanizing and vitalizing indicator for the strengthening of coexistence. Following the democratic and competitive elections, our neighbor certainly walks deservedly for the opening of negotiations with the European Union. We need to learn from them and get back on track as soon as possible, starting with respecting the June 5 Agreement and meeting all other conditions,” writes President Meta.

 

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES 

An Unlikely Partnership in Trouble: Serbia and Azerbaijan (Royal United Services Institute, Commentary by Vuk Vuksanovic, 19 August 2020) 

A murky story linking the Balkans to the Caucasus comes to light. Or does it?

Last month, the chargé d'affaires of the Serbian embassy in Azerbaijan was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry for talks with Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov. The Azerbaijani side filed its complaint over the fact that Serbian mortars and ammunition of various calibres were being used by the Armenian military. The ammunition was uncovered during the three days of fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces that started on 12 July and which claimed the lives of 16 people. This episode might spell trouble for the peculiar partnership that has existed between Serbia and Azerbaijan for the past 12 years.

PARTNERS IN ADVERSITY

How can one explain the partnership between two countries that appear so different? There are two reasons. Both countries are engaged in unresolved territorial disputes – Serbia with Kosovo and Azerbaijan in a conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. The second explanation relates to Belgrade’s desire to find alternative economic partnerships, a tendency which was particularly pronounced in the first year after the global financial crisis of 2008. As Kosovo declared its independence in February 2008, counter-secession became the essential element of Serbian foreign policy. Under that policy, Serbia reached out to countries troubled by their territorial disputes both to avoid any precedent impacting its Kosovo policy and to secure diplomatic support in international forums from these countries. Azerbaijan found itself among these countries, leading to a weird diplomatic constellation. There is a potential synergy between Serbia and Armenia, as both countries are Orthodox Christian nations with an ageing population and under potential pressure from their demographically more dynamic and younger Muslim neighbours. However, the principle of the sanctity of state territory brought Belgrade and Baku together. The two sides are voting in favour of each other at the UN on Kosovo and Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan had a good reason to have open contact with Serbia as there has always been a strange overlap between territorial and ethnic conflicts in the Balkans and the Caucasus, particularly when it comes to Russia’s involvement. Thus, in 1995, when the Dayton Peace Accords were signed bringing to a halt the violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia played a minor role in the process, since it was bogged down in the disastrous First Chechen War between 1994 and 1996. The wars in the former Yugoslavia, however, also helped Russia in other instances. In 1999, NATO’s military intervention in Kosovo played a part in the decision of then Russian President Boris Yeltsin and his successor Vladimir Putin to escalate military operations during the Second Chechen War between 1999 and 2009. Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia occurred shortly before the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008 in which Russia imposed independence on Abkhazia and South Ossetia by invoking the Kosovo precedent. In short, Serbia and Azerbaijan indirectly either restricted or eased Moscow’s actions, and both are aware of this dynamic.

FLOURISHING LINKS

Either way, diplomatic relations between Belgrade and Baku quickly developed. Azerbaijan opened its embassy in Belgrade in 2010, while Serbia opened its embassy in Baku in 2011. Azerbaijan also established the Azerbaijan Culture Centre in Belgrade in 2010. Between 2010 and 2018, there have been five presidential inter-state visits, one by the Serbian prime minister, ten mutual visits by foreign ministers, and numerous other meetings by other government officials and members of the parliament. In May 2018, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hosted his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vučić in Baku where the two signed the Joint Agreement on Strategic Partnership and several trade agreements, including one on a direct flight between Belgrade and Baku. Economics also played its part. Serbia was hit hard by the financial crisis of 2008 and languished on the European periphery because of the slow pace of its EU accession, so it needed credit lines. Azerbaijan jumped in. In 2016, the Ljig-Preljina section of the motorway Corridor XI intended to connect Italy, Montenegro, Serbia and Romania was completed by an Azerbaijani contractor, AzVirt. The project was financed through a €300-million loan based on the credit agreement that the two governments signed in 2012. In November 2019, a contract was signed between the Serbian government and AzVirt for the construction of the Ruma-Šabac highway and the Šabac-Loznica expressway. In 2011, Baku financed the restoration of Belgrade’s Bajrakli mosque, the Saint Petka church in Novi Sad, as well as the restoration of Belgrade’s Tašmajdan Park. In Novi Pazar, a Muslim-populated city in southwestern Serbia, Azerbaijan financed the reconstruction of the city’s cultural centre. On the humanitarian front, the partnership with Baku also paid dividends for Belgrade. During the devastating flood that hit Serbia in 2014, Azerbaijan donated more than €400,000 worth of aid. For combating coronavirus, Azerbaijan gave medical equipment to Serbia in May 2020 with AzVirt assisting needy families in Belgrade. Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić greeted the plane carrying aid, and she thanked both the Azerbaijani president and the ambassador for the assistance. Azerbaijan also scored points in its partnership with Serbia, by gaining political influence in an EU membership candidate country while under EU criticism for human rights violations. It was also useful for Azerbaijan to keep Serbia close in 2015 when Serbia chaired the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, under whose auspices the Minsk Group, the conflict resolution mechanism for Nagorno-Karabakh, operates. Azerbaijan also had the opportunity to do some public diplomacy and promote itself and its leadership in Serbia. Tašmajdan Park in Belgrade, renovated by Azerbaijan, includes a monument to the late Azerbaijani president Heydar Aliyev and the father of current president Ilham Aliyev. In 2011, an ‘Azerbaijani room’ was opened in the building of the Serbian foreign ministry. The room was renovated from the Azerbaijani donation, decorated with Azerbaijani motives and to this very day, it is one of the rooms used for high-level inter-state visits.

AND THEN, THE SNAG

This partnership has been shaken by the fact that Serbian mortars and ammunition were found with Armenian forces. The conflict with Armenia is the dominant theme of Azerbaijani foreign policy and non-negotiable element in Azerbaijan’s partnerships. What makes this situation so troublesome for Belgrade? It is happening at the moment when the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has not only turned into a hot war, but has widened, as the latest round of fighting did not happen in Nagorno-Karabakh, but in the strategically located Tovuz district of Azerbaijan. Serbia has also found itself involved in a local diplomatic problem in the Caucasus, as Azerbaijan is claiming that Serbian ordnance reached Armenia through neighbouring Georgia. Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia is denying these allegations. To make things even more complicated, the man allegedly behind the arms delivery to Armenia was identified by the Serbian press as Slobodan Tešić. Tešić is one of the biggest Serbian arms dealers, and a man close to the Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, explaining why the Serbian government has been shy about providing names. Back in 2009, US diplomatic cables subsequently made public claimed that Tešić was involved in illicit arms sales to Armenia. For 10 years, Tešić was under a UN travel ban for violating arms exports to Liberia. In December 2019, nine individuals and three entities affiliated with Tešić were placed under sanctions by the US Treasury Department. Tešić and his companies were also at the centre of one of the biggest scandals involving the Serbian government last year. Namely, it was uncovered that several companies owned by Tešić were buying ammunition at a discounted price from the Serbian munitions manufacturer Krušik. In these transactions, the father of the Serbian Minister of Interior, Nebojša Stefanović, also participated. The mortar shells were sold to buyers in Saudi Arabia and ended up in the hands of Islamist militants in Yemen. In December 2019, a member of parliament from the Serbian opposition claimed that Tešić made donations to the Serbian community in Kosovo, while the government provided Tešić with the licence for arms exports to Armenia in return. Indeed, the Tešić-owned company Vektura Trans has been supplying ammunition manufactured by Krušik to Armenia. This is a result of the agreement Tešić reached with Armenia in 2018, the same year Vučić visited Azerbaijan. The proximity of Tešić to the ruling circles in Belgrade certainly has not escaped Baku’s attention, and it will have to be addressed. So far, the Serbian government has defended itself by claiming that it is a transaction by a private company unrelated to the state, although several state institutions have to approve arms exports. The government also claimed that Serbia sold ammunition to both Azerbaijan and Armenia, and that sales of ammunition to Armenia started during the time of former Serbian President Boris Tadić, who denied these allegations.

IMPLICATIONS

In case the partnership with Baku is damaged, Belgrade will suffer more as it would lose the economic and political capital created by that partnership over the past 12 years. However, the biggest danger for Belgrade is the number of major geopolitical players that can be potentially upset. Serbia’s special partnership with Russia is becoming tenuous and the Kosovo dispute seems to be the only issue which unites them. While Moscow is the main backer of Armenia, it sells weapons to both Azerbaijan and Armenia to boost its influence in the conflict. Erdoğan’s Turkey, another partner of Vučić’s Serbia, is the main backer of Azerbaijan in the conflict with Armenia. Israel, with whom Serbia pursued closer ties by deciding to open a state office in Jerusalem, is supplying drones that Azerbaijan uses against the Armenians. The US also has its eye on Tešić. Belgrade and Baku started to resolve the bilateral issue surrounding the ammunition scandal. Vučić called Aliyev expressing regret for the deaths of Azerbaijani citizens, while promising to send a high-level delegation to Azerbaijan to investigate the matter and inviting his colleague from Baku to visit Serbia. However, for Serbia, a small impoverished country burdened with Kosovo and the legacy of the 1990s, being caught in the middle of a Caucasus conflict is the last thing it needs. For the past 12 years, Serbia has avoided entanglement in global conflicts and disputes in order to avoid angering regional and global powers. However, the presence of Serbian weaponry in conflict zones brings Belgrade the risk of the diplomatic ire of bigger players or even US sanctions. Belgrade should step back before the Caucasus get too hot.

Vuk Vuksanovic is a PhD researcher in International Relations at LSE and an associate of LSE IDEAS, LSE’s foreign policy think tank. 

The views expressed in this Commentary are the author's, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.