LOCAL PRESS

Vucic and Nikolic to attend talks in Brussels (Tanjug/RTS/Beta)

“In the continuation of the dialogue with Pristina in Brussels on Tuesday, Serbia will be represented by the highest level – President Tomislav Nikolic and I, as prime minister, will be going,” Aleksandar Vucic told a press conference at the Serbian government on Sunday. “I think that the Albanians will bring their highest representatives and I hope that there will be enough reason and rational approach so that it never again happens that weapons and instruments are brought into areas inhabited by Serbs in order to show muscles,” Vucic said. He added that the most important thing for Serbia is to avoid conflicts and further provocations and that he believes that the talks will be successful. Vucic said that Belgrade’s delegation is going to Brussels to try to reach an agreement, and that both sides should make concessions. He believes that the talks on Tuesday will not be simple, because they start with two opposed premises – Pristina’s that Kosovo is independent, and Belgrade that it is part of Serbia’s territory, and that is why it is difficult to reach a common conclusion, but that it must be achieved without using weapons.

Reflecting on the arrival of the ROSU special Kosovo police unit in the north of Kosovo on January 14, in order to prevent a train from Belgrade from reaching Kosovska Mitrovica, Vucic said that everyone is talking and spinning the story about the train, but that no one paid attention to the fact that heavy weapons and instruments were brought. He said that it was all organized, but also pointed out that the Albanians did not even see that train, and that after it was stopped they brought the special units to northern Kosovo.

Commenting remarks that the inscription “Kosovo is Serbia” on the train was a provocation, Vucic said that he does not see the provocation, and reminded that the “Greater Albania” flag was brought to Belgrade to the football match between the national teams of Serbia and Albania in October 2014. At the time it was said why we were so troubled by that, he reminded.

Vucic added that Serbia did not bring out weapons because of that, but Pristina brought out 17 armored vehicles and special units consisting of only ethnic Albanians. He explained that it is clear that police units in northern Kosovo must be comprised in accordance with the ethnic makeup, and that this also applies to special units, and not to send in ROSA consisting of 100% Albanians.

Vucic not optimistic ahead of talks (B92/Beta)

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said on Monday that he has lost his trust in Pristina and that for this reason, the dialogue in Brussels will be difficult. Speaking during a news conference with the Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers, Vucic added that he above all” expects EU’s clear messages: “I want to ask EU officials not to support the bringing of tools and weapons where they don’t belong,” he said, in apparent reference to the incidents earlier in the month surrounding a train traveling from Belgrade to northern Kosovo, and added: “Everything else, all other topics, will happen some other time. He also advised Pristina not to play with tools and weapons. And while the negotiations will be difficult due to the loss of trust, it is important to secure peace, stability and safety for the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija. “I don’t expect too much from tomorrow’s meeting, but I expect the situation to calm down, and clear messages… we have difficult discussions ahead, and any result we achieve is good,” Vucic said, according to Beta.

Vucic, Zvizdic: Economic cooperation and connecting countries in focus (B92)

Serbia is dedicated to peace, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said after his meeting in Belgrade with Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers Denis Zvizdic.According to Vucic, that was the tone of the conversation between him and Zvizdic on Monday. “If someone fears that political conflicts that could lead to something ever worse will continue – Serbia will do its best to turn the path in the opposite direction, and for our countries to cooperate in the best possible way,” Vucic said. He added that the meeting with Zvizdic also touched on relations in the region, while there is clear economic cooperation that is growing each year. “We spoke about concrete and important issues, starting with succession, to demarcation. There are four points on which we have not reached agreement, but our teams will soon meet to continue talking about that,” Vucic said.  He stressed that he supports the territorial integrity and sovereignty of B&H. “It is our vital interest to bring people closer together, that they understand we can make progress only through stability and peace, to be able to secure deeper wallets for people,” said Vucic.

Vucic has told a joint press conference with Zvizdic that Serbia will not join sanctions against the Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik. “There are two reasons for this. One is that sanctions never resolve anything, and the second it that there exists a tacit agreement that we do not repeat the period of 1990s when we set barricades to each other on the Drina River,” said Vucic. He said that Serbia didn’t wish to interfere in B&H’s internal affairs, that how it has been and that how it will be as well. “Angela Merkel also asked me why we don’t join the sanctions against Dodik and I told her the same thing,” said Vucic.

Dacic to Macedonia: Your recognition of Kosovo offensive for us (Novosti)

It was offensive for Serbia that Macedonia recognized Kosovo and kept using the name “Republic of Kosovo”, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic told Novosti on Saturday. Dacic said this on the occasion of request from official Skopje to Belgrade to stop using abbreviation FYROM, standing for Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia on toll receipts. Macedonians emphasized that this name was “shameful” and that Belgrade should stop using it. “We just want a mutually correct relation. If they protest for toll receipts, what should we do over their recognition of Kosovo and voting in UNESCO,” Dacic said. He asked why Macedonia should not leave the UN, European Council, OSCE and meeting with the EU. “Why are they seating under this name and now a toll receipt that says the same thing is a problem for them? Serbia did not change its view regarding recognition of Macedonia, but it was offensive and shameful for Serbia when they said ‘Republic of Kosovo’”, Dacic explained.

Dacic: We have informed everyone of Pristina’s provocations (Tanjug) Serbia has this week informed all relevant international actors of the provocations by Pristina and the latest developments surrounding the case of the stopping of a Kosovska Mitrovica-bound train from Belgrade. “We have informed everyone of Pristina’s latest provocations and of what Serbia has done to preserve peace,” Dacic told Tanjug.

REGIONAL PRESS

Dodik to request from new US administration to review sanctions imposed against him (RTRS)

Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik stated that he will file a request to the new US administration, for review of the decision on sanctions imposed by the outgoing administration against him. Dodik deems that since outgoing US administration is disappointed with continuous failure in B&H, “they tried to find an excuse for their failure by imposing sanctions.” In his opinion, the entire situation with the sanctions would not have been created had he not received the invitation to attend the inauguration of new US President Donald Trump. Dodik stated: “After that, representative of the outgoing US administration called me and asked me to give up on changing of Law on (B&H) Constitutional Court, and not to attack High Representative (Valentin Inzko), who violated the Constitution and the law. Bearing in mind that I did not accept this, it is obvious that later on, my US visa was not approved and then this (happened), two days before they leave”. Dodik underscored it is clear that in the last moments of their work, the outgoing US administration is trying to implement the will of the Bosniak policy by force. He explained that this represents violation of the international law and interference in internal issues of a state. RS President emphasized that although he was accused of violating the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) and B&H laws, these accusations were never proved before any court. He added that the US Ambassador to B&H is not authorized to decide who violates laws. “This is something courts do. No court ever established criminal liability of Dodik,” said RS President, adding that no indictment was filed against him, despite the fact he is constantly under some investigations. RS President deems that imposition of sanctions against him will not be detrimental to the RS and Serbia. Dodik added that he is proud of good relations between the RS and President of Russia Vladimir Putin. He expressed hope that the RS will have similar relations with Trump’s administration, adding that he is certain Trump will review decisions of his predecessors.

Cvijanovic: RS intends to further build its relations with new US administration (RTRS)

RS Prime Minister Zeljka Cvijanovic and Snjezana Dodik, the spouse of RS President Milorad Dodik, attended three solemn balls organized in Washington on Friday on the occasion of inauguration of new US President Donald Trump. Trump was present at one of these events, which were organized by the strongest conservative groups that operate within the ruling Republican Party. In a statement to RTRS, Cvijanovic congratulated the new US President on taking office, expressing pleasure that she had an opportunity to attend his inauguration in Washington as the RS Prime Minister. “We are not going to miss a single chance, like we did not miss this chance on Friday, to be in Washington and speak with our collocutors. Apart from talks, the fact itself that we attended this great event shows how much we care about the world, the United States and our neighborhood becoming a better place,” Cvijanovic asserted. She said that the RS intends to further build its relations with new US administration encouraged by the fact that it has a good sense of the global situation and an understanding of what is happening in the Balkans, as well as in B&H. She expressed her belief that the arrival of the new US administration would create paths for a new policy on the global stage. Cvijanovic reminded that despite being pressured by injustice, misunderstandings and fabricated, artificial topics, the RS has been building contacts with the United States for years. “We are all even more pleased that people, with whom we have been building contacts and friendship and to whom we have tried to explain what B&H actually is and the ways in which it could move forward in the future, now have very important positions in the new administration”, the RS Prime Minister stated.

RS officials expect new US Administration to provide assistance with abolition of OHR (Nezavisne)

Judging by the assessments of the Head of Republika Srpska (RS) Representation Office in Washington, Obrad Kesic, the new US Administration will lead different politics towards Serbs and the RS and one of the first things that he expects is assistance of President Donald Trump in abolition of the OHR. “I think we have encountered huge understanding and level of readiness to cooperate with us, while I expect first official contacts with new administration in seven to fourteen days,” said Kesic. He stressed that the RS can assist the US to establish relations with Russia, being that Serbs have close relations with this country. “With representatives of the new administration, we have attended the ball sponsored by six the most prominent republican, conservative and religious organizations. During the dinner, I sat by the people from Arizona and Georgia who supported Donald Trump, as well as some of his financiers, but also media, representatives of right-wing and it was fascinating for me to hear that they fully reject the message that political establishment sends through media, about Russia presenting serious threat for the USA,” said Kesic.

EP preparing new resolution on B&H (Glas Srpske)

European Parliament (EP) Rapporteur for B&H Cristian Dan Preda will soon propose a resolution on B&H. According to the daily, the draft of the resolution indicates that it will be aimed against the RS. Namely, Preda’s proposal for resolution reads that the 2013 Census in B&H was conducted in line with all laws, and it expresses regrets over the fact that the ruling of B&H Constitutional Court (B&H CC) on RS Day was not implemented. The resolution proposal further emphasizes the need for further progress of B&H on European path and greater independence of judiciary; it calls for continuation of reforms, strengthening of fight against radicalism and stopping of departure of young people under influence of radical ideologies, as well as more decisive fight against organized crime. Preda’s proposal condemns the decision of RS National Assembly to present wards to former RS officials who are convicted war criminals. Over 300 amendments to the resolution proposal have been submitted already, mostly by Croatian MEPs and Austrian MEP Harald Vilimsky. Among other issues, Vilimsky objected to the resolution’s conclusions on census, indicating that census results were based on wrong methodology which was adopted unilaterally by Director of B&H Statistics Agency who was under pressure of BIH Chief Prosecutor. Vilimsky also proposed amendment which acknowledges the right of RS citizens to use referendum as means to declare their opinion on matters which fall under jurisdiction of entities, as well as on decisions imposed by the High Representative which violate rule of law and Dayton Peace Agreement.

Bosic criticizes CC of B&H after rejecting his motion (BN TV)

Deputy Speaker of the B&H House of Representatives (HoR) and former leader of SDS Mladen Bosic reminded that Bosic criticized the B&H Constitutional Court (CC) after it declined jurisdiction on his motion for assessment of constitutionality of the Decision on Single Program of Processing of 2013 Population Census Data. Asked if this means B&H CC completely lost its credibility, Bosic explained that B&H CC, as well as any other institution, has to work in line with some rules. He reminded that B&H CC decided to decline jurisdiction explaining that the Decision is not a law, but a bylaw. He stressed that B&H CC has been obviously applying double standards, because this institution used to decide about bylaws in previous period. Bosic added that once he receives final decision and explanation in this case, he will decide about future steps. “However, they missed chance to resolve one case producing instability and misunderstanding in B&H”, emphasized former leader of SDS. He added that this is another argument proving it is necessary to conduct reforms defining work of the B&H CC.

VMRO-DPMNE most likely to form government with DUI (Telegraf.mk)

DUI spokesperson Bujar Osmani has stirred the waters of the politics and media, after his interview on the Voice of America in Albanian language, where he announced a coalition with the winning Macedonian party of the December 11 election, i.e. VMRO-DPMNE. Osmani pointed out that the principle of coalition between the parties with the most votes must be respected, in the Macedonian as well as in the Albanian bloc. “I believe what dominates the political scene is the respect of the agreements signed. Macedonia in the past existed as such only respecting the international agreements. One of those is the May Agreement of 2007, where it is stated that the winner of the Albanian community is chosen by the winning partner of the Macedonian community. Respecting this principle is very important in order to keep the significance it has with the Albanian community and in order to keep the logic of Albanians in the elections,” Osmani said.

The May Agreement of 2007 was introduced after VMRO-DPMNE, following the elections of 2006 decided to make a coalition with DPA although DUI had won more votes of the Albanian community back then. After that agreement, the coalition continued with DUI, i.e. that party that won the majority of votes in the Albanian bloc. The principle of making coalition between the Macedonian winner and the Albanian winner is not a constitutional stipulation. It is a deal that leaves some space to the parties to decide which party it will make a coalition with upon forming the government. The deadline to form the government is January 29, when the leader of VMRO-DPMNE should say if there is enough majority in the Parliament to support his proposal for government staff. On the other hand, SDSM keeps announcing project as if it won the election and is about to form the government.

FM Poposki responds to Bulgarian President Plevneliev’s comment calling Macedonia to “renounce the idea of Macedonianism” (MIA)

Macedonian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Nikola Poposki responded to a comment from outgoing Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev, in which he called for Macedonia to “renounce the idea of Macedonianism”. Plevneliev comments were seen as shocking in Macedonia and as something only hardline nationalists would say. Bulgaria asked that Macedonia agrees to an agreement of friendship before it will allow opening of European Union accession talks, and the proposals for the agreement that mention the history of the Balkans are seen as an attempt to lay a claim that Macedonians are in fact ethnically Bulgarians. In his parting interview, Plevneliev’s comment that “Macedonia can join the EU, but Macedoniansm cannot” seemed as a confirmation that the outgoing President demands that Macedonians adopt a Bulgarian identity. In his response, Poposki compared Plevneliev’s attitude toward Macedonia with that of Bulgaria’s first non-Communist President Zelu Zelev, under whom Bulgaria became the first country to recognize independent Macedonia.

“Macedonia remains grateful to Bulgaria! Some 25 years ago, the first international recognition of independent Macedonia came from Sofia. Since then we’ve had a long list of friends in Bulgaria. Then President Zelu Zelev had the democratic vision and respected the will of the Macedonian people for independence and gave us tremendous support in what was for us a very difficult moment. He was a great man, who deserves our full respect. Those were different times, with different people. It would have been well if Mr. Plevneliev, who held the same office as Zelev, also had his vision and the same level of respect for the will of the people in a neighboring country”, wrote Poposki. He adds that it takes strength and wisdom to send a message of peace, of a friendly outreach and to support the goal of having both countries joined in the European family of nations. “That would be far more useful than chasing after myths and fighting against imaginary threats”, Poposki adds in his comments.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

“Haradinaj could become KLA crimes court’s first case” (Deutsche Welle, 23 January 2017)

According to Deutsche Welle, talk about the possibility of France extraditing Ramush Haradinaj to the Special Court for KLA crimes is growing louder. The head of the Serbian War Crimes Prosecution, Milan Petrovic, confirmed that this is a possibility, the German broadcaster said in a report published on its Serbian service website. Haradinaj, a Kosovo Albanian politician and a former KLA commander, was arrested in early January in France on a Serbian war crimes warrant. A French court is yet to decide on Serbia’s extradition request. Deutsche Welle is reporting that Serbia suspects Haradinaj is responsible for 13 deaths, children among them, and that these allegations are corroborated by statements of 30 witnesses. The key point, the report added, is that Serbian authorities “insist these crimes were committed in 1999 and have not been previously considered by the Hague Tribunal” which acquitted Haradinaj of war crimes charges related to 1998. Petrovic told the broadcaster that the case is “unburdened by any political connotation” and that Serbia expects France to extradite the suspect. But he refused to reveal any details from the extradition request, because the issue if witnesses is “especially sensitive – their situation is such that the secrecy of the investigation could be undermined, while the safety of the damaged parties and the victims could also be brought into question.” Petrovic said that Belgrade would not give up on prosecuting Haradinaj “until he is brought before a court and answers for the crimes we have charged him with.” Serbia would cooperate with the Special Court if Haradinaj is turned over to it, he said, and will put him on trial if he is extradited to Serbia.

Milivoje Mihajlovic, Radio Belgrade Director who for many years reported from Kosovo, told Deutsche Welle that he thinks Haradinaj is more likely to be extradited “to The Hague” – where the Special Court for KLA crimes is seated – than to Serbia. “The case could end in his being set free, after the Ejup Ganic model, or by his being taken to The Hague. And in some way, this would represent the opening of that special court. I don’t think there’s mood in France to extradite him to Serbia.” He also said the process is “not in any way political” as the charges concern Haradinaj’s “activities” that resulted in a complete ethnic cleansing of the area of Metohija of Serbs. “It’s important for reconciliation and for truth about the crimes, as well as a debt toward the families and the victims – and Albanians were also among his victims, that this is a clean court process without politics. The first process against Haradinaj in The Hague (the Hague Tribunal) involved plenty of politics, representatives of international missions in Kosovo were even saying that they expected him to return as an innocent man. That story should therefore have its ending in the court, and the reconciliation process should be moved toward.” Mihajlovic also thinks that Haradinaj’s arrest will not affect the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, as Hashim Thaci has the main role in it on the Kosovo Albanian side – “and those two are, in a way, political opponents.”

Redrawing Balkan Borders Would Shock Europe (BIRN, by Marcus Tanner, 23 January 2017)

Timothy Less’ diagnosis of Bosnia’s crisis may be accurate but his solution is completely impractical.

One of Donald Trump’s more memorable quotes – about the US decision to invade Iraq, likened it to “throwing rocks into a beehive”. Judging by the storm reaction to Timothy Less’ article in Balkan Insight on changing the borders of the Balkans, he, too, is guilty of throwing rocks at a beehive. True, no one has died as a result of his penmanship – but he has certainly created a furious buzz. Most respondents to his article have been unambiguously hostile, accusing Less of stoking the same nationalist passions that right-minded people have trying to repress for the last quarter-century. In a nutshell, he maintains that the multi-ethnic states of the Balkans are failed or failing states and proposes redrawing state borders to create more ethnically homogeneous entities, which he says will be more stable. Less does not dispute that multi-ethnic states can work but says they cannot work in the Balkans because the necessary checks and balances designed to keep minorities content are either missing or just inoperable in that environment.

No wonder his words have elicited such horror; they run clean contrary to modern Western thought, which upholds “diversity” as an ideal to strive for. Most Western politicians, except those on the far right, at least pay lip service to multi-ethnicity as an asset – and decry its most vocal opponents as racists. The shadow of Nazi Germany and of Hitler’s drive to create an ethnically pure super-state hangs over the whole debate about ethnicity, which is why many see it as toxic. One reason why so many Western intellectuals regarded Bosnia’s independence struggle with such sympathy – and looked on Croatia’s independence war with coldness – is precisely because the goal of a multi-ethnic Bosnia seemed so in tune with the times.

By contrast, the goal of most Croats, the creation an old-fashioned ethnic state, was not.

When Less calls Bosnia a failure, therefore, he does not just undermine a Balkan country, he attacks a deeply cherished idea that many people are desperate to hold on to. However, just because his diagnosis makes people uncomfortable is no reason for dismissing it. It is hard to ignore the fact that Bosnians have – time and time again – voted for the same old nationalist parties, not for the supposedly civic, non-ethnic alternatives. How long can this be described in neo-Marxist terms as the result of false consciousness and mass delusion? How long do we carry on calling this the result of “manipulation”? Perhaps it is time to accept that these are the politics, policies and politicians that most people in Bosnia want, not ones they have been manipulated into endorsing. Where I – personally – would differ with Less is not with his diagnosis of Bosnia’s situation but his solution. Less may have outraged Western liberals with his talk of ethnic states, but he is very much part of the liberal mainstream in holding that every problem awaits a solution. The only real difference between Less and his critics is that they think Bosnia’s ills can be cured by the means of a metaphorical aspirin, whereas he wants to go for radical surgery and even amputation. But there is another alternative, which is to accept that some chronic illnesses are to tolerated rather than cured by ever more drastic methods. In other words, failed or not, Bosnia should be left as it is, not reconfigured – yet again – by well-meaning outsiders. Bosnia’s “failure” in any case is very relative. It is not a totally failed state, exporting misery, vast numbers of migrants, or terrorism. Its economy is in far better health than its politics. Its predicted growth rate this year is above the EU average. Tourism is booming. Crime is low. Sarajevo Canton, the country’s most populous unit of local government, saw four murders in 2015. Chicago saw 468. Bosnia not only does no harm to its neighbours but, simply by being there, does the whole region a service by keeping two historic protagonists, Serbia and Croatia, apart. As for pulling Bosnia apart, and reconfiguring its borders on ethnic lines, that would not be a local matter. Such a dramatic development would cause shockwaves all over Europe. The last time Western Europe saw new borders created was in 1922, when the Irish Free State came into being. The last time the borders changed in Eastern Europe was after the cataclysm of World War II in 1945. It is true that new states came into being in Eastern Europe in the 1990s as a result of the collapse of the USSR, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia.

But the borders of these new states all follow the old internal borders of existing entities. They are new international borders – but not new borders per se. Modern Latvia’s frontier matches the border of old Soviet Latvia – and so on. Europe remains deeply resistant to the idea of borders being redrawn to reflect ethnic principles, which is one reason why Russia’s seizure of Crimea is seen as so offensive. It seems almost inconceivable that the major powers in Europe would nod through that principle being kicked aside now, just to please the discontented Serbs and Croats of Bosnia. Their discontent is glaring, well known and it may well keep Bosnia on the boil for years to come – but they will probably have to lump it, all the same.

Marcus Tanner is an editor of Balkan Insight and the author of “Albania’s Mountain Queen, Edith Durham and the Balkans” [Tauris].

The opinions expressed in the Comment section are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.

‘Red Lines’ Complicate Macedonia’s Government Talks (BIRN, by Sefer Tahiri, 23 January 2017)

The preconditions set by the ethnic Albanian parties on language rights and other issues will make the work of forming a new coalition government in Macedonia especially complex.

After eight years of coalition government, the main ruling VMRO DPMNE party and its former junior ethnic Albanian partner, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, have rushed to publicize their standpoints and “red lines” in the media before actually launching formal talks on a new government. Judging by the conditions they have set each other, the two parties that won most votes in the December 11 elections have ruled out a fresh alliance. Their policy differences seem irreconcilable on justice issues and language rights for a start. VMRO DPMNE insists that the Special Prosecution, SJO, – set up to probe high-level crime – should no longer exist. The DUI says the exact opposite. And while the DUI wants Albanian made an official language throughout Macedonia [not just in areas where Albanians are most numerous], VMRO DPMNE calls that unacceptable. “VMRO DPMNE will not negotiate on, or allow changes to the constitutional order in favour of, bilingualism over the entire territory of Macedonia, nor will it extend the deadline for the SJO [to press charges, which expires in March],” the party said in a press release. Meanwhile, the DUI demands an extension to the SJO’s deadline, bilingualism throughout Macedonia and Macedonia’s rapid European and Atlantic integration. DUI spokesperson Bujar Osmani said acceptance of these demands is a precondition for joining government talks.

“We will also not budge from shedding light on [politically] mounted court cases [concerning Albanians], which is also part of the joint Albanian platform,” Osmani said, referring to the joint platform signed by the main Albanian parties in Macedonia earlier this month. VMRO DPMNE says the official use of Albanian over the entire national territory would undermine the unitary nature of the state and its constitutional order. The DUI, however, insists that the language demand does not undermine the constitution and accords with the 2001 Ohrid Peace Accord, which ended a brief Albanian uprising. It also says equal status for both Macedonian and the Albanian languages would unify society. DUI leader Ali Ahmeti has meanwhile offered five options, which he said his party is considering. One is the formation of a new DUI coalition with VMRO DPMNE, a second is a DUI coalition with the main opposition Social Democrats, SDSM, a third is a grand coalition government, a fourth is new elections and the fifth is the DUI’s retreat into opposition. All four DUI vice-presidents, Izet Mexhiti, Teuta Arifi, Nevzat Bejta and Sadula Duraku, as well as almost the entire DUI leadership, oppose a fresh alliance with VMRO DPMNE. They say the party paid a high price for its eight-year alliance with VMRO DPMNE in the December 11 elections, when its support was cut in half and it won only 10 seats compared to 19 in 2014. Nevzat Bejta announced that renewal of the alliance with VMRO DPMEN was unlikely as soon as the election was over. “I haven’t met a single Albanian who wants a coalition with VMRO and [Nikola] Gruevski,” Bejta said. None of the more vocal voices inside the DUI welcome another government with VMRO DPMNE, either. However, according to the party’s statute, and in practice, DUI leader Ahmeti has the final say on such decisions.

Ylber Sela, a professor at the Tetovo University, says the DUI’s final decision will depend on which of the two main Macedonian parties accepts the joint platform signed by the main ethnic Albanian parties. “The DUI should … follow the will of the Albanians about their red lines and the demands of its voters,” Sela said. “If neither of the two main Macedonian parties rejects the key points, one option is the formation of a wide coalition government which will be tasked with carrying out the Priebe report [demanding urgent democratic reforms], European Commission recommendations, finalizing the Ohrid Peace Accord, extending the SJO’s deadline, postponing local elections [set for May] for six months and staging joint local and parliament elections in November,” Sela added. Political analyst Albert Hani said the VMRO DPMNE had started to back away from its ethnocentric vocabulary since the election, “focusing on state rather than ethnic interests and speaking about joint points of interest rather than ethnic divisions. “I see this as a sign of coordination [between the DUI and VMRO DPMNE] and expect these two parties to consolidate their stands and soften their vocabulary before the deadline for the new government [which expires on January 29],” he added. Hani thinks both parties should not exclude the topic of extending the SJO’s deadline from talks on the new government. “If the scenario on joint points of interest fails, VMRO DPMNE might hand the mandate for the new government to the SDSM, which would then be used to boost their [VMRO’s] ethnocentric agenda and lead to fresh elections,” Hani predicted. Some Albanian parties prefer the SDSM: While the DUI does not exclude a new alliance with VMRO DPMNE, the other biggest Albanian opposition parties, Besa and the Albanian Alliance, will not enter any coalition with it. Besa’s vice-president, Zeqiria Ibrahimi, says if the SDSM is ready to discuss the joint Albanian platform, they should talk to the SDSM. Ibrahimi also said Macedonia would be a more functional country if it closed down ethnic issues like the language dispute and calls for a new law on the status of Albanian as well as a new law on economic parity between the two communities. “Economic equality should be regulated by a law on the just distribution of the national budget. “We also deem the issue of Macedonia’s EU and NATO perspectives important,” Ibrahimi said.  Arben Taravari, secretary general of the DPA – Movement for Reforms, the most important component of the Albanian Alliance, says his party would also talk to the SDSM if “we find a common language about bilingualism, the SJO and decentralization of power”. New government without DUI? In the December elections, VMRO DPMNE won 51 of the 120 seats in parliament, ten short of the majority needed for a government. The SDMS won 49. This makes the DUI and its 10 MPs key players in the combination needed for any new government. DUI support could provide the simple majority that VMRO DPMNE needs outright. With the help of one or more opposition Albanian parties, it could also give the SDSM the majority that it needs. However, Ali Pajaziti, professor at the South-East Europe University in Tetovo, argues that Besa, with its six MPs, and the Albanian Alliance, with three, have emerged as the real moral winners in the election in the Albanian bloc. But, he added, “Besa seems determined to stay in opposition while the Alliance shifts [in its views] and does not have an articulated position about its future,” he said. He said the Alliance’s political stands “are more radical than the DUI’s but it remains to be seen how much they will grow in political sense, so they can one day fulfill their commitments for redefining and federalizing Macedonia”. Fejzi Hajdari, publisher of the Albanian language Lajm newspaper, believes the DUI should not be part of a future government. “The Albanian opposition parties [including the Democratic Party of Albanians, DPA, which won two seats] should unite behind Besa and form a joint opposition bloc with 10 MPs,” he said. “As a substantial representative of Albanian voters, this bloc should then start talks with the SDSM on a new government. “They should invite the DUI to back this government … without allowing the DUI to become part of that government. If the DUI declines, it should be left to form a coalition with VMRO DPMNE,” Hajdari said. He thinks the Albanian opposition parties should not endorse any government formed between the SDSM and the DUI because that would excuse the mistakes that the DUI made in its eight years in power. Hajdari says that if the DUI entered such a government it would effectively block the investigations into all criminal affairs done by the previous government and so undermine attempts to hold Gruevski’s regime accountable. On the other hand, if the DUI forms a new government with VMRO DPMNE, he says the other Albanian parties should not back it and so violate the will of the Albanian voters.