LOCAL PRESS

Coalition members must toe line on PM, or face “exclusion” (B92)

The head of the SNS group in the Serbian Assembly said on Monday this group will vote unanimously for Ana Brnabic to become Serbia’s new Prime Minister. Aleksandar Martinovic added that the SNS position is that the necessary majority must be provided by the parties that formed the pre-election coalition gathered around it, dubbed “Aleksandar Vucic – Serbia is Winning.” In line with this, he said the SNS expects the SDPS, PUPS, the Movement of Socialists, the People’s Peasant Party, and the United Peasant Party to vote in favor of the proposal.

In a statement for Tanjug on Monday, Martinovic recalled that President Aleksandar Vucic – who on Friday nominated Brnabic and on Monday met with representatives of his party – received almost 56 percent in recent presidential elections – “therefore this is about taking a principled position”:

“Those who abstain from voting, or who take a stance against Brnabic as candidate for PM, will in fact take a stance against Aleksandar Vucic. The SNS will not let anyone blackmail it, nor do we want to allow a political situation where we depend on anyone.” He advised “other political parties” to “consider carefully” whether they will vote to elect that government, and added that “those who do not vote will have excluded themselves from the coalition with the SNS.” Martinovic also said he expects the Assembly sitting that will debate and vote on a new government to be on the agenda on Wednesday and Thursday next week.

“In that way, Serbia’s new government could take the oath of office as soon as (next) Thursday. That means that, if everything goes according to plan, Serbia will get a government within the deadline defined by the Constitution,” he said.

According to calculations by Politika daily, there are at least 156 certain votes for the appointment of Brnabic, including the votes by the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (VMSZ) and the Party for Democratic Action (PVD) – in addition to the votes by the SNS and the SPS.

“Vucic’s decision to entrust Brnabic with the mandate to form the new government has caused quite discontent within his own party and with the coalition partners, but, regardless, it seems that over the weekend there was a lot more drama and concern for the outcome of the vote in the parliament than there were objective reasons for that,” the daily noted. For some reason, however – probably to demonstrate that in case of emergency it does not need the coalition partners – the SNS insists on primarily each and every one from the bloc to vote for Brnabic, so a total of 128 of them.

SPS to “expand” Brnabic’s cabinet (Tanjug)

Whether Ana Brnabic‘s government – if elected by the parliament by the June 30 deadline – will have one or two new ministers from the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) depends on whether MPs will at the same time pass a bill on ministries, which should introduce another government ministry. The formation of one new ministry – the ministry of environment – is almost certain, and President Aleksandar Vucic confirmed on Monday he had no problem with an SPS official heading it.

EU-Serbia talks: Serbia opens chapters – intellectual property law and customs union (Beta)

In Serbia’s talks with the European Union (EU) on the country’s EU accession, two more chapters, Chapter 7: Intellectual Property Law and Chapter 29: Customs Union will be opened in Brussels, on June 20, officials in the EU Council of Ministers confirmed. Ten out of 35 chapters will be opened at the EU-Serbia inter-governmental conference, while two have been temporarily closed already.

The EU delegation at the opening of the two chapters is expected to be led by a senior official of Malta, the current chair of the Union, and EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn. The Serbian delegation is expected to be headed by the minister for Serbia’s EU integration, Jadranka Joksimovic. Minister Joksimovic said that the opening of Chapter 7 was important for Serbia’s citizens and businesses alike, for legal security, authors and their rights, efforts to curb the production and distribution of fake products, for research and development. She said these were the sectors that created added value in a knowledge-based, stable economy. Chapter 29 – Customs Union, includes regulations and mechanisms for the automatic implementation of all customs import, export and transit processes, improving the terms of doing business. The EU and Serbian delegations will meet later in the afternoon, after the EU foreign ministerial meeting.

Belgrade is preparing for a provisional administration (Danas)

A change regarding the position of the Mayor of Belgrade could be done firstly by his resignation, or, less likely by dismissal of the Belgrade mayor Sinisa Mali, and a temporary administration which would govern the city until the early elections, learns Danas daily papers from the sources close to the government and the Serb Progressive Party. The Serb Progressive Party and its leader Aleksandar Vucic have been considering the possibilities of how to change the city leadership in a capital for a while, after the announced departure of the present mayor from his function.

According to the sources, Mali will resign his position, after which the City Assembly has the 30 days deadline to select the new Mayor. But, as the sources say, at the moment they are considering not to call the session of the City Parliament within that deadline, and not to elect the new Mayor, which leads to the introduction of the provisional administration or to be more exact, provisional council of five members which would govern the city and which would be appointed by the government. This council would perform its duties until the elections. The President of the Serbian Assembly has a maximum of two months, after the introduction of the provisional council, to call for the Belgrade elections. A temporary body, composed of a president and four members, in accordance with the law on local self-government, performs current and necessary tasks within the competence of the assembly and executive bodies of the local self-government. After the elections have been called the campaign for Belgrade can last from 45 up to 60 days.

According to the sources, they are already thinking about who could be the members of that provisional council, in which three positions are reserved for the SNS and other two for SPS and probably Andrija Mladenovic, Deputy Mayor and the leader of the Independent Democratic Party. The SNS positions could be filled by Irena Vujovic, President of Savski Venac municipality, Aleksandar Jovicic, President of Palilula municipality and Luka Petrovic, City Secretary for the Investments.

Nobody knows the answer to the question if the early parliamentary elections are going to be called together with these city elections. If we look at the statements by the President of the SNS and the President of the State, Aleksandar Vucic, who announced the departure of Sinisa Mali from the position of the Mayor during the summer months, it can be assumed that the early elections are going to be held on autumn. If the dynamic of the Belgrade city elections is such that they can be held on autumn, the opposition has very little time to make the agreement and run together on these elections.

REGIONAL PRESS

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Zvizdic meets EU officials (TV1)

Chairman of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Council of Ministers (CoM) Denis Zvizdic addressed the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) in Brussels on Monday. On this occasion, he underlined that the European integration represents the process of modernization and democratization which encourages internal reforms and according to Zvizdic, this is why B&H insists on the European path. He pointed out the importance of the fact that European institutions recognized efforts of our country and clearly mentioned this in the EC’s 2016 Country Report on B&H.

Zvizdic concluded that last month’s message of High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, that the EU perspective of the Western Balkan countries is open, is very important. He added that domestic authorities are aware that this year is the most challenging year ever in terms of administrative and political aspects of the European integration. Zvizdic stated that the main goal of B&H and the current authorities, is to get the status of the EU candidate by the end of the first quarter of the next year. He stressed: “This is ambitious, but reachable goal that is based on real assumptions and experience of countries in our region”.

Zvizdic also informed the MEPs about principles which B&H will follow during change of B&H Election Law. Speaking about this issue, he stated that reform of electoral legislation is necessary, but only within the framework of rulings “Sejdic–Finci vs. B&H”, the ruling in case of “Zornic vs. B&H” and the ruling in case of “Pilav vs. B&H&. According to Zvizdic, the rulings in the aforementioned cases should be the basis for the electoral legislation reform or else, proposed solutions may be in collision with requests of the European Court for Human Rights in Strasbourg. Zvizdic also informed AFET that B&H did not register any case of departure of its citizens to foreign battlefields last year. He stressed that during the last year, 46 citizens returned to B&H from foreign battlefields, which is contrary to some information that was presented in the public. Zvizdic concluded by saying that 20 persons were convicted, while the rest of them are sanctioned and according to Zvizdic, they are under control of institutions.

Dodik: No representative of RS has mandate to force B&H path to NATO (Srna)

Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik told Srna that no representative of the RS in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) joint institutions, including the Serb member of B&H Presidency, has mandate to force B&H’s path to NATO on behalf of the RS. Asked to comment the meeting of B&H delegation, led by Chair of B&H presidency Mladen Ivanic, with NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller, Dodik said that Ivanic is well aware of the RS stances and he trust that he will act in line with them. “NATO membership is voluntary. There is no consensus in B&H on B&H’s accession to this alliance and NATO officials are probably aware of this stance. All parties in the RS reached consensus, including the parties from Alliance for Changes (SzP), that we will not give agreement for NATO integration of B&H, which would place the border of this alliance on Drina River”, stressed Dodik. He said that RS object the idea where decision on NATO accession would be reached by political elites, stressing that this should be determined by the referendum.

“The fact that NATO not so long ago, bombed our country and our people, obliges us to this and only this people can say if we will move towards NATO or not”, said Dodik. He repeated that RS supports dialogue with all international organizations and alliances, including NATO, only it will never accept to be pushed into the alliance by fraud. “Registration of prospective military property in name of B&H Ministry of Defense is illegal and unconstitutional and the RS will use all legal and political mechanisms to stop the violence against Constitution. We are convinced that NATO does not want to see B&H in its membership, if this status would be reached using illegal and unconstitutional activities, by deceiving half of the country”, said RS President. Dodik stressed that NATO representatives have to be aware that this attempt regarding the property, via Public Attorney Office, presents the bluntest violation of the Constitution. He concluded that the RS remains to be partner to NATO in fight against terrorism and other security challenges even without formal membership.

PIC considers moving Inzko to Vienna (EuroBlic)

EuroBlic daily learned that the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC SB) is considering the possibility of moving the Office of the High Representative (OHR) from Sarajevo to Vienna. According to a source, the main reason for such move is of financial nature because financers, primarily Germany, have significantly reduced their funding for the work of the OHR. The daily learned that 14 employees of the OHR were recently dismissed because of this and one department was completely shut down. The daily reminded that it recently reported that a draft decision on closure of OHR exists in diplomatic circles and OHR will most probably be shut down once Bosnia and Herzegovina is granted the status of a candidate for the EU member. However, relocation of OHR, in case it is accepted, would be a measure applied before that. A source stated: “I believe the OHR would have been closed by now if there were not for constant threats coming from SNSD leader and Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik that he will organize the referendum on independence of the RS. Therefore, Inzko might “move” to Vienna where he would be on stand-by in case Dodik launches the referendum, while costs would be significantly smaller”.

Banja Luka is new target of attack (EuroBlic)

The Security-Intelligence Agency (OSA) of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) got the information that preparations are underway for an attack on one of buildings of consulates in Banja Luka or some of protected persons in the area of Banja Luka. The daily learned that the security alertness was raised to the highest possible level because of this. A source from the top of security agencies confirmed that they received a memo from B&H OSA informing them about possible attack and said that the memo did not specify it but they suppose a terrorist attack might be in question. The daily reminded that the Directorate for Coordination of Police Bodies of B&H is in charge of securing consulates and protected persons in B&H and added that the Directorate protects, among others, the apartments and cabinets of B&H Presidency Chair Mladen Ivanic and Minister of Foreign Affairs of B&H Igor Crnadak in Banja Luka. The daily added that the information was taken very seriously and security alertness was raised the very same day it was received. The source noted that they will not make the same mistake from two years ago, when Nerdin Ibric killed a policeman in Zvornik in a terrorist attack on the police station.

Director of the Directorate for Coordination of Police Bodies of B&H Mirsad Vilic confirmed that they received certain information but he could not reveal more details. Vilic only briefly said that all security agencies received the same information as well.

Croatia

Marija Pejcinovic Buric confirmed as Foreign Minister (Vecernji list)

On Monday afternoon, the Parliament confirmed the appointment of Marija Buric Pejcinovic as Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, with 78 votes in favor and 35 against, reports Vecernji List.

Pejcinovic Buric was a State Secretary at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and has a respectable diplomatic career. She will succeed Davor Ivo Stier, who resigned as a minister last week and decided instead to return to the Parliament as an MP. It is believed that Stier, a prominent member of the party’s conservative wing, resigned in protest over HDZ’s decision to enter into a coalition with the more liberal HNS. Before confirmation in Parliament, the new minister passed a hearing at a joint session of the parliamentary committees for foreign and European affairs, where she was supported by the majority of members of both committees.

Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic’s government has now confirmed its majority in the Parliament, which is the same as ten days ago when seven new members of the government were also approved with 78 votes in favor. The absolute minimum for confirmation of new ministers is 76 MPs.

The new minister took the oath of office, promising to execute her duties honestly and honorably, respecting the Constitution and laws.

Parliament also confirmed the election of Italian national minority MP Furio Radin as the new Deputy Speaker of the Parliament. He is one of three deputy speakers coming from the parliamentary majority. His appointed was not contested, and he received 109 votes in favor and just one vote against. Eight national minority MPs are the key part of the ruling coalition, and Radin has been elected as their representative. He is also currently the father of the Parliament, as the MP with the longest continuous service.

Border dispute arbitration decision to be announced on 29 June (Vecernji list)

The decision on the border dispute between Croatia and Slovenia is certain to cause stress in the relations between the two countries. The decision on the border dispute between Croatia and Slovenia will be announced on June the 29th, 2017, confirmed today the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague, reports Vecernji List.

The announcement of the decision will be public, will last from 14:00 to 16:00, and the decision will be read by the President of the Court, Gilbert Guillaume.

While Croatia remains steadfast in its position that the arbitration proceedings and the agreement are no longer valid, after the arbitration was irreversibly contaminated when it was revealed two years ago that Slovenian arbitrator Jernej Sekolec and Slovenian representative Simona Drenik were in collusion and planned to influence other arbitrators, Slovenia insists that Croatia must respect the arbitration decision.

Slovenia, after initially denying the inadmissible acts, later dismissed Drenik, while Sekolec resigned. The Permanent Court of Arbitration confirmed last year’s decision that there was a violation of the procedure by Slovenia but decided that the proceedings could go on.

On Sunday, Slovenian Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Karl Erjavec said that Slovenia was intensively preparing for the arbitration ruling in its border dispute with Croatia, adding that he expected Croatia would also have to accept it “sooner or later.”

fYROM

Zaev’s addressing from Sofia: The Agreement on Good Neighborly Relations shall be signed 2nd of August in Macedonia (Meta)

Macedonia’s Prime Minister, Zoran Zaev and his host, the Bulgarian Prime Minister, Bojko Borisov, had talks about bringing closer the stances of both countries regarding the Agreement for Good Neighborly relations, which, as was stated by Zaev after the meeting, will be signed on the 2nd of August i.e. on Ilinden, that will be celebrated together.

“We had talks about bringing closer both countries’ stances on basis of the Agreement on Good Neighborly Relations and it remains very little and we shall be celebrating Ilinden in Macedonia on the 2nd of August. We agreed to sing the Agreement for a mutual collaboration on that date. Prime Minister Borisov shall visit Macedonia and shall bow in front of the monuments of our joint history. We shall do that for the first time today when we shall bow in front of the monument of Tzar Samuil in Sofia” said Zaev.

The Macedonian Prime Minister stressed that during the meeting it was agreed that the mayors of Sofia and Skopje to name one street after the names of late presidents of both countries i.e. in Skopje to have a name that will bear the name of Zelju Zeljev and in Sofia, Boris Trajkovski.

At the press conference that took place after the meeting with Borisov, Zaev stressed that “our first neighbor has a big desire to help Macedonia in its integration into NATO and in the European Union and at the meeting it was discussed about the assistance and the support that Bulgaria can provide Macedonia in the process of various integrations. Today, Macedonia is closing another chapter of nationalism and is opening another for a European future. We need help and support, and Bulgaria is doing that – said Zaev.

Hahn arrives next Monday, while Priebe on Tuesday (Meta)

The European Commissioner for Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, Johannes Hahn’s visit and participation at the open Government session is probably precedent, which will provide a new climate. We will propose to Hahn a draft-plan of measures, activities and time frames, said Vice President Bujar Osmani in Government today, while announcing the aggressive campaign which will follow in the next few months, to implement the reform priorities.

European Commissioner Hahn will be visiting the country next Monday, while Reinhard Priebe will be in Macedonia by Tuesday, the man who handled the commission who in the name of the EU in 2015 prepared the necessary recommendations for the necessary reforms the country needs to continue its road towards EU membership.

Priebe will be attending the MANU (Macedonian Academy of Science and Art) conference, where he will discuss the priorities, which will take place in July, said Osmani.

“It is an excellent decision that Hahn is including Priebe. His name became synonymous with the reforms, even young children if you ask them, they know his name. He can speak better about what needs to be done, so his contribution to Macedonia is of great importance and gives us new direction. This shows that things are moving”, said Osmani.

Government discusses reform priorities, EU and NATO integration; PM Zaev meets DPA leader Thaci (MIA)

On Monday Government held a session focused on determining the direction of urgent reform priorities, government’s press service informs. Afterwards, the Government held its seventh session whose agenda will include discussion on the situation and progress in the process of European integration, use and implementation of EU funds and the status of implementation of the priorities of the Republic of Macedonia to join NATO as well as the status of Framework Agreement implementation.

After the session Prime Minister Zoran Zaev met with DPA leader Menduh Thaci for talks on reform implementation as regards the country’s EU accession process.  In view of the interests of all citizens, the interlocutors acknowledged the importance of reforms and Macedonia’s geo-strategic interest to join NATO as a full-fledged member and to be given a date for start of EU negotiations, the government’s press service said.

“Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has invited DPA to engage in the reform process by integrating their positions in the processes to come. PM Zoran Zaev and DPA leader Menduh Thaci concurred that the interests of the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia deserved support from the opposition party,” read the press release.

DPA’s Thaci said his party would act as a constructive opposition that supported public interest and reform processes all the while being critical of those policies whose implementation was deemed inappropriate, stated the press release.

Albania

Rama: The essence with DP’s agreement is opening negotiations to EU (ATA)

Prime Minister Edi Rama declared that the agreement with the opposition is historical in reality and its essence is EU accession negotiations, which will be seen if it will be implemented in accordance with what is written on paper. Prime Minister Rama while talking about the agreement with the opposition stressed out that “the essence of the agreement is the fact that the government and the opposition will be in negotiations to EU opening negotiations. After these elections there is no chance that the opposition will not recognize the result saying that we are stuck and pressure was put on us, the outcome will be recognized by anyone who loses.”

The agreement says that a process will be built in which the government and the opposition will do what they have done in all normal countries that debate has split, internal discord continues to be a problem, while they advocate Albania’s goal to EU membership,” underlined Rama.

Referring to the question of a joint government with DP Rama said that on 25 June the aim is to take votes in order to govern as one party system and implement reforms thus coalitions will occur post elections as well as the assessment.

Regarding the SMI accusations of nepotistic employment Rama underlined that “this system needs to be scaled up and in this system I have never said and would not say that the SP is pure water turbulent by these other parties on the contrary if SP receives the mandate as a winner will be contaminated by this system.”

MP Xhafaj: The judicial reform, a one-way path (ATA)

Former chairman of the parliamentary Committee of Legal Issues, MP Fatmir Xhafaj congratulated the creation of vetting bodies adopted by the Albanian Parliament. MP Xhafaj greeted as well the approval of 27 members’ part of the revaluation institutions of judges and prosecutors. Xhafaj stated that vetting process won despite many sacrifices made. The judicial reform is a one way road while political corrupted and judges have sensed fear in a while.

“The Socialist Party made all efforts and Albanian citizens should appreciate it. The justice system reform is one of the greatest kept promises under this legislation and therefore we will continue the fight in order to implement it within the judicial system as a guarantee to better governance,” MP Xhafaj underlined. In addition he said that we shall hope 25 June will be the first day to a new era of justice and to the era of the state of law.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

US Congress looking into Ex-CIA officer’s involvement in Montenegro coup attempt (Sputnik)

The US Congress is trying to find out whether a former CIA operative was engaged in the Montenegro failed coup attempt in 2016.

The US Congress is trying to find out whether a former operative of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was engaged in the Montenegro failed coup attempt that took place on October 16, 2016, the general election day, local media reported Friday, citing congressional officials.

Former CIA officer Joseph Assad visited Montenegro a few days prior to the allegedly Russia-plotted coup attempt and was suspected of assisting the coup organizers in leaving the country in the aftermath, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Assad’s lawyer Vincent Citro denies the ex-operative’s involvement in the coup as well as ties with Russia, the newspaper noted, adding that Assad was in Montenegro to help his friend, who was engaged in managing the state opposition’s campaign.

Assad resigned from the CIA in 2015 and started working for a private security company, according to the newspaper.

The Western states, including the United States and Montenegro put the blame for plotting the coup attempt on Russia, without bringing any evidence of that. Moscow has repeatedly refuted the allegations with the Foreign Ministry regarding the claims as aimed at discrediting Russia.

On October 16, 2016, while Montenegro was holding the general election, 20 people were detained and 14 of them arrested for planning to conduct attacks, targeting both civilian population and high-ranking statesmen, and to seize the parliament’s building.

American Interest: Why should the Balkans matter to the West? (American Interest magazine)

Not long ago, the conventional wisdom held that the NATO-led intervention to end the Bosnian war was one of the crowning successes of the post-Cold War era. Slobodan Milosevic was defeated and tried for war crimes; Kosovars gained their independence; and today, three Western Balkan states are members of NATO, American Interest magazine writes. Yet almost two decades since the Ohrid Agreement bookended hostilities in the former Yugoslavia, the region is still a mess, torn apart by interethnic tensions and democratic backsliding.

According to the magazine, believing that the Western Balkans’ democratic future lay in EU membership, the United States essentially ceded responsibility for the region’s political, institutional and economic development to the European Union.

EU crisis

Unfortunately, Europe has not fully picked up the slack. After accepting the accession of Croatia and Slovenia, the EU lost its appetite for expansion and has kept the rest of the region (Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Albania, and Macedonia) waiting at its doorstep.

Brexit, the migrant crisis, and the rise of anti-EU sentiment in recent years have shaken the very foundations of the EU and further delayed the accession process for new member states. At the same time, the region’s internecine tensions and lack of development only festered, leaving a swathe of poor and unstable states on Europe’s periphery, and a vacuum which decidedly less constructive actors have stepped in to fill.

Revanchist Russia has reasserted its traditional role as the protector of Orthodox Christian populations, using the Balkans as a buffer to forestall further European expansion and reassert their sphere of influence.

Russia, Turkey and the Gulf states’ influence

Russia has influenced public opinion among Serbs, Montenegrins and Macedonians to dampen enthusiasm for EU and NATO membership, and has further bolstered its power through military aid and disinformation that exacerbates interethnic divisions.

According to a recent poll by the International Republican Institute (IRI), Macedonian support for NATO membership is at its lowest level since 2008. In Bosnia, IRI polling shows that only 18 percent of ethnic Serbs strongly favour joining the EU.

Turkey and the Gulf states have responded by stepping up their support for Muslims in the Balkans—and the help they provide isn’t always benign. Saudi Arabia has built mosques and brought imams from the Balkans to the Gulf for religious instruction. Some have returned espousing the strictly conservative Wahhabi code, in sharp contrast to the moderate Islam that has been practiced in the Balkans for centuries.

This has led to a rise in Islamist fundamentalism among local Muslim populations.

Given this environment, it’s no surprise that identity politics centred on ethno-religious nationalism is enjoying resurgence.

Nationalism resurgence

The leader of the Serb-dominated half of Bosnia, Milorad Dodik, has called for an independence referendum. Dodik has travelled frequently to Moscow to pay his respects to Putin.

In Bosnia, the leader of the main Muslim political party, Bakir Izetbegovic, travels regularly to Istanbul for photo ops with the increasingly authoritarian Turkish President Erdogan.

In another sign of escalating tensions, despite the continued presence of 5,000 NATO troops and strong opposition from the Western alliance, as well as neighbors like Serbia and Macedonia, Kosovo’s president Hashim Thaci has called for the establishment of a national army. Meanwhile, Serbs recently attempted to direct a train emblazoned with the slogan “Kosovo is Serbia” over the border.

Albanian president Edi Rama often speaks of a need for increased cooperation between his country and Albanians in Kosovo and Macedonia, prompting critics to accuse him of seeking to establish a “Greater Albania.”

With the Middle East imploding and North Korea threatening nuclear war, why should the Balkans matter to the West?

Western Balkans still matters

To begin with, the proximity of the region to Europe means that destabilization in the Balkans can quickly become a problem for Europe.

In 2015, the region was a main route for more than a million migrants fleeing to Germany and Sweden, and the crisis could have been far worse if local leaders had not managed to put aside their differences and work together.

As the analysis says, if regional tensions continue to escalate, this kind of cooperation may not be forthcoming for the next crisis. This poses both a humanitarian and security risk, as ISIS fighters continue to take advantage of chaotic or lax political situations to enter to Europe.

American Interest adds that Russia has long stoked divisions in this region in order to shore up its strategic advantage over Europe, and increased indifference or antipathy toward Western institutions is making light work for the Kremlin.

Redrawing boundaries?

Some observers argue that the redrawing of national boundaries is the only way to address these perennial ethnic divisions—apparently forgetting the havoc wreaked by this approach in the 1990s. The fact is there is no way to redraw boundaries without one ethnic group or another losing out.

Despite the ethnic cleansing and displacements that took place during the Bosnia war, there are still many areas (Sarajevo being the most obvious example) where Serbs, Croats and Muslims live side by side. Moreover, simple exchange of land based on ethnic majority is a recipe for chaos in the Balkans.

In Kosovo, a Serb enclave in Mitrovica is resisting rule by the Albanian majority and wants to join Serbia. As there are Albanian communities in the Presevo Valley in south of Serbia, on paper one might assume that the two territories should just swap populations. Yet a Presevo-Mitrovica exchange would spark a nasty fight over territory, as not all enclaves are geographically contiguous. For the same reason, it is highly unlikely that Serbia would agree to hand over the majority Muslim Sandzak region to Bosnia, the magazine writes.

A better way forward would be to establish and strengthen regional institutions to facilitate economic and political coordination and conflict resolution.

Integration is a key

A Western Balkans customs union—a single economic area of the region’s countries recently discussed by the leaders of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, and Albania—could be a step in the right direction.

Sadly, the EU has all but abandoned its enlargement strategy for the region—constrained by persistent opposition by member governments who fear cheap labor flooding their markets and inspiring a popular backlash. But a serious road map for EU accession would provide countries in the region with concrete incentives for political and economic reform. This could lead to increased regional cooperation, thereby diminishing interethnic tensions and creating an overall stabilizing effect for the region and continent as a whole.

The magazine adds that NATO integration is equally important and perhaps more easily achievable for the Western Balkans. Montenegro’s impending NATO accession opens the door for Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia, and even Kosovo. Joining this vital alliance would send an important signal that the Balkans see themselves as part of the West and would help countries resist Russian infiltration.

The West faces a stark choice: treat the Balkans as a key strategic asset, or risk losing the region to Russian influence and infiltration by Islamist extremism.

Last September, Bosnia submitted its formal application to join the European Union. Brussels should give serious consideration to this request, and NATO should follow up Montenegro’s entry into the alliance by giving strong consideration to Serbia and Bosnia as future members.

With the EU in turmoil, integration with countries seeking a European path to growth and stability is, somewhat paradoxically, more important today than ever before, the magazine concludes.