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Belgrade Media Report 29 June

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LOCAL PRESS

• Brnabic: EU strategic orientation, we remain involved in Partnership for Peace (Beta)
• Opposition and “Opposition” Won’t Support Brnabic (Danas, VIP, Vecernje Novosti)
• Dacic: EU’s enlargement policy as “special challenge” (B92)
• Dacic: West is to blame for Russia’s growing influence in Serbia (Beta)
• Vucic replies to Scott: No malignant influences on Serbia (VIP)

REGIONAL PRESS

Bosnia & Herzegovina
• Dodik on international obligations, political situation, NATO, PIC and relations with Vucic (RTRS)
• Karamatic: Without changes to Law on Elections, Bosniak colleagues are leading country into lawlessness (Dnevni list)
• Ivanic: Ruling authority at state level will survive until general elections because there is no alternative (TV1)
• Schwarz: Whole Europe bears responsibility for Srebrenica (Dnevni avaz)

Croatia
• PM: Croatia will not physically accept arbitration ruling (Hina)

Montenegro
• Montenegro against customs union in Western Balkans (RTCG)
• EU will not mediate in resolving the crisis in Montenegro (RTCG)

fYROM
• Ahmeti: Most of the demands from Albanian parties are already in the new Government’s program (Meta)
• Zaev-Yannakakis: Positive atmosphere for building trust between Macedonia and Greece (MIA)
• PM Zaev congratulates Rama on election victory (MIA)

Albania
• PM Rama: June 25, victory for Albania and a multiplied burden of responsibility for me (ATA)
• Eduart Selami announces candidacy for DP leadership (ATA)

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

• Bosnia’s Serb Republic leader: no breakaway vote next year (Politico)

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LOCAL PRESS

 

Brnabic: EU strategic orientation, we remain involved in Partnership for Peace (Beta)

Serbian premier-designate Ana Brnabic said on June 28 that the European Union was the strategic orientation of Serbia, because it “represents values everyone stands for: innovation, creativity, knowledge and overall modernization, leading to a higher standard and quality of life.” According to her, Serbia will pursue a policy that includes building the best relations with the Russian people and its state leadership. Brnabic also said Serbia had managed to build cordial and friendly relations with China in a few years and it plans to bolster them further.

“We have established new relations with India, and have advanced relations with Japan, South Korea, Africa, Australia and Oceania, and South America. We shall continue to create increasingly better ties with the U.S. in all areas, and will also cultivate good relations with other peoples and states around the world,” she stated.

Brnabic went on to say that the new cabinet would remain committed to Serbia’s participation in multinational peacekeeping operations in the U.N. and EU, and in involvement in the Partnership for Peace program. Presenting the program of the future government to MPs, the premier-designate said true national security could not be achieved only thanks to strong military forces, but that it also required strong diplomacy, efficient intelligence, a strong economy, financial discipline and the efficient work of the government.

 

Opposition and “Opposition” Won’t Support Brnabic (Danas, VIP, Vecernje Novosti)

Parliamentary opposition parties said on Wednesday that the speech by Prime Minister designate Ana Brnabic is just a list of wishes and added that they will not vote for the new government because it will be a government in continuity.

The Democratic Party (DS) said it would not support the government adding that Brnabic did not show sufficient courage. Nova Srbija (NS) leader Zoran Zivkovic said that the government has to be headed by someone with the maximum of political power and experience which Brnabic is not. Zivkovic was openly threatened while speaking at the parliament session by candidates for ministers Nebojsa Stefanovic and Zlatibor Loncar as well as Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) MP group chief Aleksandar Martinovic, the NS said in a statement. The Social Democrat Party (SDS) said that it would not support the new government because it is a government of continuity and similar reasons were cited by the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and other parties. Dveri MP group chief Bosko Obradovic said that the proposed government is a “political Frankenstein” and anything but a Serbian government because it is a colonial administration of the European Union. Pokret za Spas Srbije MP group chief Sanda Raskovic Ivic said that a vote for the new government is a vote to destroy Serbia and added that the Prime Minister designate’s speech lacks any vision and did not mention the real situation in the country. Brnabic will also not get the votes of parties which are opposition on paper only since they cooperate with the SNS on several levels. League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV) leader Nenad Canak said that his party would not vote to support Brnabic because she made no mention of Vojvodina in her speech. Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) leader Cedomir Jovanovic said that his party cannot support Brnabic because it saw no political course needed by the state in her speech. Jedinstvena Srbija leader Dragan Markovic said that his party MPs will not vote for Ana Brnabic as Prime Minister, adding that his MPs are linked by families and traditional values.

 

Dacic: EU’s enlargement policy as “special challenge” (B92)

Serbia will continue to support EU aspirations of its neighbors and implement a policy of military neutrality, protecting and promoting its national interests. Acting Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said this on Thursday in Belgrade at the opening of the conference “New International Reality – Challenges and Prospects.”

According to the government, Dacic said that events in the political and security global plan since the beginning of the 21st century have changed the world in many aspects, with the inability to predict what security challenges are ahead of us.

“The only thing we can say with certainty is that today’s security challenges have become global, and at the same time affecting more countries and regions simultaneously and going beyond the borders the continents. Serbia firmly believes in the achievement of the principles of humanity and human solidarity and cooperation and, in that sense, has always advocated for the establishment and development of partnership and friendly relations with all countries of the region, Europe and the world,” he said.

According to Dacic, Belgrade is “committed to interstate and inter-ethnic relations based on civilizational norms and international law.”

“With the eruption of the migrant crisis, Serbia found itself faced with a problem that could not be solved by unilateral measures, but solely through a unified and solidarity solution. Our activities on this plan have received the highest possible rating and international recognition. For Serbia and the region, a special challenge is the policy of enlargement of the European Union and the consequences and uncertainties that it brings. Serbia still sees full membership in the European Union as its strategic national goal,” the minister said, and added:

“Undertaken courageous political and economic steps in Serbia have been recognized in the European Union, but I am sure that we as well as the European Union we can and should do better.”

“An integral part of the European process of Serbia is also the promotion of regional cooperation both at the bilateral and multilateral level. We want to speak honestly and constructively on all outstanding issues, and, together with our neighbors, to find solutions that will be permanent and sustainable,” Dacic said. Serbia has achieved political stability and wants to build its economy on this basis, attract foreign investments, make up for lost time and contribute to the stability of the region, he said.

“Our country strongly strengthens the infrastructural network of the entire Western Balkans, contributing to the greatest extent to transport, energy, economic integration and the improvement of youth cooperation, with the aim of strengthening internal capacities and thus bringing this part of Europe closer to the Union. Serbia has proven and proves to be a credible and reliable partner. We are firmly committed to working with partners in the world to contribute to the fight against threats at regional, European and global levels,” Dacic said.

 

Dacic: West is to blame for Russia’s growing influence in Serbia (B92)

Ivica Dacic says that military neutrality does not mean only that Serbia will not join NATO – it also means the country will not join any military alliance. However, continued Serbia’s acting PM and Foreign Minister, “this does not prevent us from having good relations with the Western military alliance.”

Dacic spoke on Thursday in Belgrade during a break in a conference dubbed “New International Reality – Challenges and Perspectives,” to note that Serbia maintains the highest level of cooperation with NATO because NATO is “all around Serbia.” Beta also reported that when asked to comment on the strengthening of Russia’s influence in Serbia, Dacic said that “all countries” exert their influence, while the West is to blame for the growth of Russia’s. “All European countries are sitting on many more chairs than Serbia,” Dacic added.

According to Tanjug‘s report, Dacic responded to complaints about Russia’s influence here to say that “those who come to Serbia rarely” should be aware that long-distance love “doesn’t work anywhere, including in politics.” Dacic also said he would like “all great powers to be interested in Serbia,” and that his country “does not want to lose a single friend.”

The minister dismissed the complaints about Russia’s influence, coming from “those who have themselves to blame.”

“I asked the US administration if they remember who was the last president to visit Serbia, if there are those still alive who remember this – I’m doubtful on this issue – never mind the younger ones, the last British Prime Minister to arrive in Serbia was Margaret Thatcher. What are we supposed to have, a long-distance love? That doesn’t work anywhere, including in politics,” Dacic said.

 

Vucic replies to Scott: No malignant influences on Serbia (VIP)

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Wednesday that he does not see “anyone’s malignant influence” in Serbia and that he is proud to lead a sovereign and free country which makes its own decisions. Vucic’s statement came in response to US Ambassador Kyle Scott who said earlier that Russia’s activities in the region can be viewed as malignant because they do not contribute to stability or to the realization of Serbia’s strategic goals. Commenting Scott’s statement, Vucic said that he has good relations with the US ambassador and that he “talks openly” with him about everything. He said that it would not be a good thing if they shared the same views on all issues.

“Yesterday I heard comments from some people that we are servants of the West and from others that we are Russian servants. Those people look first at themselves, one day they want to be Russian, another Western servants. We are no one’s servant, our job is to work for Serbia, Vucic said. He repeated his statement, that few people believe, that the Serbian government “is only under the influence of the citizens of Serbia and not any embassy”.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Bosnia and Herzegovina

 

Dodik on international obligations, political situation, NATO, PIC and relations with Vucic (RTRS)

Republika Srpska (RS) President and SNSD leader Milorad Dodik talked about issues connected to international obligations and relations, political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), upcoming general elections in B&H, economic situation in the RS and regional relations. Speaking about international obligations of B&H, Dodik stressed that B&H institutions fail to fulfill assumed international obligations like in the case of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangement. In this regard, Dodik reiterated that the RS has fulfilled all of its obligations but the arrangement is near collapse due to issues at B&H and the Federation of B&H levels. “We are at risk of facing a situation where we would lose significant investments”, he warned. Commenting on the EU path of B&H, Dodik briefly assessed that there is a possibility to have strong RS and Federation of B&H and B&H on this path.

 

Assessing the political situation in B&H, Dodik stated that there is “a completely confusing situation”. Specifically, Dodik assessed that politics conducted by B&H Presidency member and SDA leader Bakir Izetbegovic has failed, which can be seen in lack of his control over SDA’s MPs in B&H Parliament. According to Dodik, Izetbegovic has lost political power and failed to achieve expectations from collaboration with Alliance for Changes (SzP). Dodik asserted that SzP is at Izetbegovic’s service but they did not manage to damage the RS – in the RS President’s opinion – to the extent Izetbegovic expected that to happen. Dodik singled out coordination mechanism and recent amendments to criminal code at B&H level as examples in which he claims that RS authorities prevented SzP from working against the RS’ interests.

 

Dodik was also asked about the NATO path of B&H, where he said that it is not realistic to expect NATO membership of B&H. According to Dodik, NATO should not be allowed to divide the RS and Serbia along the Drina River border. Dodik reminded that Serbia opted for military neutrality, and he finds that there is no reason “why B&H, or at least the RS part” would not be neutral. “There was bombing by NATO and they also tried to politically influence modeling of the political system here”, he added. Asked whether the RS would support NATO membership of B&H if Serbia decides to join the Alliance, Dodik stated that he does not believe this will happen but in case it does then the RS will put it into its agenda for consideration. Dodik concluded that NATO membership will not be possible without a referendum. Reflecting on specific issues related to NATO path of B&H, Dodik stated his stance that the documents of the Defense Review and the plan for modernization of B&H Armed Forces (AF) has not been agreed by the RS. Dodik stressed that officials from the RS should not speak about NATO in a way that is contrary to the consensus there, “even though certain information show that some speak otherwise”.

 

Dodik commented on regional relations, with the focus on the relations with Serbia. Speaking about position of countries-signatories of the Dayton Peace Agreement, Dodik made a remark saying that it is unfair that Serbia and Croatia are not members of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC). “Turkey is there, although it had nothing to do with the events here, except for helping (first B&H President) Alija Izetbegovic”, Dodik added. In this regard, Dodik deems that B&H can survive if Serbia and Croatia preserve the essence of the Dayton agreement. Dodik noted that Serbia does not aspire to undermine territorial integrity of B&H but, nevertheless, it continues to support the RS’ rights based on the Dayton agreement.

 

Commenting on his relations with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Serbian Prime Minister-designate Ana Brnabic, Dodik noted that his relations with Vucic are excellent, full of mutual respect, and congratulated Brnabic on being Vucic’s choice for the Prime Minister. The RS President stated expectation that cooperation between the RS and Serbia will continue to improve. He concluded that it is realistic for Serbia to be the most powerful country in the region and that the regional stability will depend on it.

 

Karamatic: Without changes to Law on Elections, Bosniak colleagues are leading country into lawlessness (Dnevni list)

The Constitutional Court (CC) of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) will discuss at its session scheduled for July 6 the request of the Bosniak Caucus in the B&H House of Peoples (HoP), which contested constitutionality of urgent procedure for discussion about proposed changes and amendments to the Law on Elections of B&H. Changes and amendments to the law were proposed by the Croat Caucus in the B&H HoP. According to daily, no matter what the CC decides, it is uncertain what will happen in case the Law on Elections is not changed in the part regulating election of delegates to the Federation of B&H HoP. Daily argues that proposed changes and amendments, if adopted, would harmonize relations between the Bosniaks and the Croats in terms of collective rights, and create atmosphere of trust among them. However, if there is no agreement about proposed changes, it is very likely that the CC will erase two articles of the Law on Elections, which in turn would mean the election results could not be implemented. Commenting on the issue, Croat delegate in the B&H HoP Mario Karamatic says he is certain the CC will reject the Bosniak Caucus’ motion since it is about the procedure and not the law itself. Karamatic is convinced that the B&H HoP, and later the B&H House of Representatives, will adopt the proposed changes and amendments. Otherwise, Karamatic noted, the Bosniak colleagues will lead the country into total lawlessness and collapse of the system.

B&H CC will also discuss a request of 30 delegates of the RS National Assembly to evaluate constitutionality of the Law declaring March 1 the Independence Day of RB&H and November 25 the Statehood Day. B&H CC is expected to discuss a motion of Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Parliament of B&H Borjana Kristo to evaluate constitutionality of the Article 114 of the Law on Police Officers of B&H.

 

Ivanic: Ruling authority at state level will survive until general elections because there is no alternative (TV1)

Chairman of the Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Presidency Mladen Ivanic stated on Wednesday that the ruling authority at the state level will survive until the next general elections because there is no alternative. According to Ivanic, the Federation of B&H is the one that caused the crisis in the first place, while Republika Srpska (RS) has never done anything wrong.  “All problems came from the Federation of B&H. What I have been telling all these years – that the problem does not lie in the RS but in the Federation of B&H and their unresolved internal relations – is evident now”, Ivanic stressed.

 

Schwarz: Whole Europe bears responsibility for Srebrenica (Dnevni avaz)

Former MP of German demo-Christians (CDU) Stefan Schwarz said that the entire Europe, including Germany and its government, is liable for Srebrenica and he added that constant shifting of blame on Netherlands is “a cheap excuse”. “Latest after Gorazde, which was attacked one year before, and ever since Prijedor, Visegrad and many other places, the international community must have known that there can be the worst possible massacre”, Schwarz said and added that Gorazde was a proof that the massacre can be prevented by executing air strikes. In this way, according to Schwarz, NATO saved thousands of people in Gorazde. “The United Nations sent thousands of people in certain death in Srebrenica. It is high time victims are no longer forced to carry out difficult court proceedings. Europe is yet to admit its liability and carry that liability as well”, Schwarz said. He also noted that, in this context, it is necessary to adopt some kind of a ten-year program through which Europe should earmark EUR 10 million each year for Srebrenica and do something concrete about its liability. “Money cannot bring lives of people, but it can restore dignity of victims and dignity of Europe from empty speeches delivered on July 11, when no actions follow all those promises and words”, Schwarz concluded.

 

Croatia

 

PM: Croatia will not physically accept arbitration ruling (Hina)

Croatia will not formally accept the ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration on Thursday but will learn of it online or during the actual reading, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said on Wednesday. Plenkovic also said there are no obstacles for Croatia to protect its own national interests after the arbitration tribunal delivers its ruling on the border dispute with Slovenia later today.

 

Montenegro

 

Montenegro against customs union in Western Balkans (RTCG)

Montenegrin Prime Minister Dusko Markovic stated on June 28 that the initiative of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic about the forming of a customs union and a common market in the Western Balkans was “not realistic”.

“Despite the fact that there were various initiatives this year regarding the further integration of the Western Balkan region, like the forming of so-called customs unions and a common market in the region, it was agreed at meetings with the European Commission and the countries of the region, and at high level meetings of the government with the European Commission, that we cannot speak about a common customs or trade policy in the region towards third countries,” Markovic stated before the Montenegrin Parliament.

Markovic answered the questions of parliament deputies within the prime minister’s hour on June 28. In his response to a deputy of the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists about the security situation in Montenegro, Markovic said that it was “at the necessary level”.

“In a period of over a year and a half, the state has been exposed to serious political and security destruction, from both inside and out,” said the Montenegrin prime minister, and added that Montenegro had “resisted and sent a clear response to everyone who tried to jeopardize it.”

 

EU will not mediate in resolving the crisis in Montenegro (RTCG)

Montenegro is progressing very well towards the European Union. The fact is that Montenegro is the leader in relation to other candidate countries, as it is also the fact that there is yet more to be done, said German Ambassador to Podgorica, Hans Günther Mattern. He also said that there is no need for EU or German mediation at internal plan of Montenegro. Priority is, he says, the rule of law and concrete results that the EU expects.

“Montenegro has reasons for optimism, it is doing well its part in the process of EU accession , it is in lead compared to other candidates,” Mattern said. Attending TVCG broadcasting program “EU Integrations”, he said he noticed that in Montenegro there were different opinions about the process itself. While some say that the dynamics is not good, it is necessary to open more chapters, to close them faster, others underline that the negotiation process is essential for reforms, for our country and that it takes time. What the ambassador notices is that there is a change to the better, but also more obligations that should be finished.

 

fYROM

Ahmeti: Most of the demands from Albanian parties are already in the new Government’s program (Meta)

We compared the programs of the Albanian political parties, and we noted that parts of those program commitments are already included in the new government program. These meetings in the future will continue to be held, said the leader of DUI, Ali Ahmeti after the meeting of the Albanian political parliamentary parties at the “Alexander Palace” hotel.

The Besa party was not present at the meeting, and Ahmeti appealed to them to nominate a president of the permanent parliamentary Commission for the Protection of the Freedom and Rights of citizens in order to start resolving cases such as “Divo Naselje”, “Monster” and “Brodec”.

In response to a journalist’s question about what was accepted from the points demanded by the Albanian parties, Ahmeti pointed out that one of the demands was meetings with neighboring states and that there have already been results.

“All these processes are mutual and we should act courageously as political parties, and the opposition parties should respect the Przino Agreement,” Ahmeti added.

 

Zaev-Yannakakis: Positive atmosphere for building trust between Macedonia and Greece (MIA)

Prime Minister Zoran Zaev met Wednesday with Greek Ambassador Dimitris Yannakakis, discussing opportunities that open policies of friendship and cooperation in the spirit of mutual respect demonstrated by countries’ governments.

Interlocutors agreed over the creation of a positive atmosphere for building trust and enhancement of cooperation between Macedonia and Greece, the Government said in a press release.

“We have sent positive signals for good neighborly cooperation because the new government is committed to the European values and policies of building bridges. Our neighbors have also sent positive signals, which represents a huge step forward in the development of good neighborly relations and opening of the perspectives for Macedonia and its citizens”, said PM Zaev.

He reiterated that Macedonia is committed to EU and NATO membership, and focused on the required reforms in the Euro-Atlantic integration process. Zaev also expressed hope that Macedonia will follow Montenegro as the next NATO member.

Ambassador Yannakakis voiced readiness for bilateral cooperation at diverse levels, including enhancement of the political climate of trust, but also intensification of collaboration in the fields of economy, investments, culture, education, environment, tourism, energy, which represent a necessity for countries’ citizens, reads the press release.

 

PM Zaev congratulates Rama on election victory (MIA)

Macedonia’s Prime Minister Zoran Zaev sent Wednesday a note of congratulations to Edi Rama over his victory at the recent parliamentary elections in Albania.

“The democratic elections in Albania demonstrate the commitment of its citizens to respecting the European values, which are the future of the country and the entire region. I am certain that you will remain committed to democratic, reform processes that abide to EU, NATO standards” the note reads. Zaev also expresses belief in resuming of the friendly Macedonia-Albania cooperation, based on mutual respect, understanding and support, in favor of ensuring better life for citizens of both countries, as well as for the stability of the Balkan region in general.

“The future of SEE countries is within the EU and NATO and I believe that our resolve as responsible politicians will bring about the desired, needed European integration for the citizens of our countries and the region” the note reads.

 

Albania

 

PM Rama: June 25, victory for Albania and a multiplied burden of responsibility for me (ATA)

Prime Minister Edi Rama said on Wednesday in a posting on the social media, the Facebook, that, “The great victory of June 25 is a victory for Albania while for me it’s only a multiplied burden of responsibility”

“Dear friends! I thank you all whether supporters, critics and sworn “enemies” for your likes, shares and comments. The supporters have been a source of positive energy with their encouragement. I also thank the critics for being a certain nourishment for the brain. I have always taken what is worthy from their criticism”.

Further on, PM Rama writes that when reading the comments of his sworn “enemies” he ponders on the efforts and time needed to narrow the gap that the splitting policy and the language of hatred between the sides has created for many years among the common people. “And I always blame politics that for so many years has cultivated an evil seed in the environment of public communication”, added further the prime minister.

PM Rama concludes by writing that, “The great victory of June 25 is a victory for Albania while for me it’s just a multiplied burden of responsibility. I believe we shall do a lot for this country especially if we remind when we quarrel with one another that in the end we have something great in common: We are Albanians. We have Albanian blood in our veins and we speak Albanian. We are all longing to see Albania do better”.

 

Eduart Selami announces candidacy for DP leadership (ATA)

Eduart Selami, the Democratic Party MP, has officially put his name forward to be the next leader of Albania’s main opposition party following its disastrous defeat in the June 25 parliamentary election. Selami announced his candidacy for the post of chairman in a press statement at the DP headquarters on Wednesday, “following an undesired defeat and the verdict rendered by the Albanian people.”

“This is a tough period for the party’s reformation and the efforts to elevate the Democratic Party up to the values of democracy and modern political parties. DP and the democrats should move forward and this is my contribution to the process for election of the party’s leader,” Selami said.

DP leader Lulzim Basha said at a press conference a day ago he had decided to give up all his roles as DP leader to pave the way for election to choose the party’s leadership following the defeat in the Sunday’s general election.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Bosnia’s Serb Republic leader: no breakaway vote next year (Politico)

A potentially explosive referendum on independence will not be held in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H)’s Republika Srpska (RS) next year as its ruling party had proposed, President Milorad Dodik told Politico. But Dodik described B&H as a whole as a “failing state” on a path to further fragmentation. He also criticized the European Union, which he said was “fading away,” and praised Russia and China for offering the Balkans friendship without attaching political conditions.

Many politicians, diplomats and analysts believe an independence declaration by the RS would trigger a new conflict in B&H and more violence elsewhere in the Balkans as other ethnic groups attempt to redraw national borders. International officials have repeatedly warned RS leaders against secession, making clear it would be regarded as illegal and would not be recognized by Western powers.

The RS, populated mainly by ethnic Serbs, is one of B&H’s two autonomous regions, known as “entities,” established under the Dayton peace agreement that ended the 1992-1995 B&H war, in which 100,000 people died. The other region is the Federation of B&H, which is home mainly to Bosniak Muslims and Croats. Some critics of the Dayton accord see the RS as the product of mass ethnic cleansing, while many B&H Serbs believe it preserves their rights and identity in a country that would otherwise be hostile to them.

“We won’t organize a referendum on secession in 2018,” Dodik said in a plush reception room of the art deco presidency building in Banja Luka, the RS’s de facto capital. “We understand the circumstances, the context. A referendum in 2018 would cause many reactions, and we still want to build up the momentum to have it legitimized as our right.”

Dodik made clear, however, that he was not taking the prospect of secession off the table. “Whether some of the forthcoming years will raise that issue, we’ll see, I don’t know,” he said. “But I’m sure that we are following that path — the path to independence.” Dodik has said on several occasions that the RS could declare independence, and last year his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) adopted a policy of holding a referendum in 2018 if the entity was not granted greater autonomy. However, senior diplomats have said that secession would be unconstitutional and lead to Dodik’s removal by international officials, who still have significant powers in B&H.

In January, the United States imposed sanctions on Dodik, claiming that he “violated the rule of law and poses a significant risk of obstructing the implementation of the Dayton accords,” following a controversial referendum on marking the RS’s national day. That vote was seen by many as a dry run for a potential referendum on secession.

 

Stability challenges

The possibility of the RS seceding is one of several challenges to stability in the Balkans, along with continued disputes between Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority and Serb leaders in Belgrade, disputes over the rights of Albanians in Macedonia, and allegations of Russian attempts to foment trouble in Montenegro. Dodik argues that the state of B&H is artificial and failing — and that the country’s Serbs should have the same right to go their own way as the ethnic Albanians of Kosovo, who declared independence in 2008. (Serbia, however, regards Kosovo as a rebel province. B&H has also not recognized Kosovo, due to opposition from its Serb leaders.)

 

Serbs now make up around 33 percent of B&H’s population, according to the 2013 census, the first held since the end of the war, with most living in the RS. Surveys suggest that the majority of the entity’s population favors independence, which some see as a precursor to union with Serbia. Banja Luka already has the feel of the capital city of a small country, with public institutions lining boulevards, monuments to war dead in the parks, and the RS’s flag — similar in appearance to Serbia’s — widely on display. B&H national flags and symbols are far less common.

 

Dodik insisted that a move toward independence would not lead to bloodshed in the region unless there is international intervention. He was scathing about the international community’s role in the Balkans, particularly that of the Obama administration and the European Union. Dodik said it is uncertain whether the EU will survive, although he asserted that the RS still wishes to join the bloc “if it gets stabilized.”

 

“The European Union is fading away,” he said. “The very fact that Britain is going out, that any elections are observed traumatically, it tells a lot about the whole story of the situation of the EU. And it shows that the EU image now is not the same as it was 10 years ago.”

Dodik said that, on the other hand, China’s influence is “much, much stronger — they are offering economic solutions without political interference.”

Despite Western allegations that Moscow is stirring Serb separatism and using Dodik as a cat’s paw in the Balkans, the RS President asserted that he had never discussed secession with Vladimir Putin, focusing instead on economic development. But he contrasted Putin’s approach with that of the EU and past U.S. administrations.

“They [Russia] haven’t asked anything from me, to do anything impossible. But when I go to Brussels, when I went to Washington previously, pressure was put on me and on many other politicians from here as well. So what’s natural? Is it natural that you go somewhere where you are welcome, or to go somewhere where the pressure is put on you?”

 

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