LOCAL PRESS

Fabrizi: Opening of chapters recognition of Serbia’ progress (Beta)

The Head of the EU Delegation to Serbia Sem Fabrizi said that the opening of Chapter 4 in the negotiations on Serbia’s accession to the EU was a recognition of Serbia’s progress in reforms. Opening a chapter does not mean that it will be closed, but progress is being made. Serbia has opened 18 of the 34 chapters, and everyone would like more to open and close, but the motion is forward, Fabrizi stated at the assembly of the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities on inter-municipal cooperation. Swedish Ambassador to Serbia Jan Lundin said that Sweden had been helping Serbia for a number of years on the path to joining the EU. He said that his country had so far donated 238 million euros through programs for the improvement of the rule of law, equality, fight against corruption and environmental protection. The Swiss Ambassador to Serbia Philippe Guex said that improvement of the work of local authorities would result in better services for the population. German Ambassador to Serbia Thomas Schieb said that Serbia could count on his country’s support in the process of EU integration, and that the focus would be on improving the rule of law.

Schieb: Enlargement will be in focus of German EU Presidency; Serbia’s campaign on withdrawals of recognitions doesn’t contribute to a better atmosphere  (RTS)

German Ambassador to Serbia Thomas Shieb has told RTS that enlargement will be in the focus of the German EU Presidency, and that Western Balkans countries can become EU members if they fulfill conditions and that this depends from the states themselves. He underlines that they advocate that the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue with EU mediation be restored as soon as possible. It is important to conduct negotiations in a constructive atmosphere, but the campaign conducted by Serbia on withdrawals of recognitions doesn’t contribute to a better atmosphere, said Shieb.

Fajon: Serbia in political crisis, authorities don’t implement recommendations (RFE/FoNet)

Serbia is in a delicate state ahead of general elections, in a kind of political crisis, Tanja Fajon, the Chair of EU-Serbia Stabilization and Association Parliamentary Committee, has said on Wednesday, FoNet reported. She adds the democracy and media freedom are seriously violated since the TV channels with national frequency don’t treat all parties equally, what is, as she tells Radio Free Europe (RFE), is inadmissible. Addressing the round table discussion on election conditions in Serbia held in Brussels, and attended by Serbia’s opposition leaders, Fajon said fair conditions for the next years’ elections should be created, adding the situation was far from ideal. “The ruling parties are still not implementing the recommendations necessary for free and fair elections. We see some progress in comparison to the last talks, but I would like that we see the progress in real life, and we still don’t see it,” Fajon said. Nevertheless, Fajon called on Serbia’s opposition leaders present in Brussels, Dragan Djilas, Nebojsa Zelenovic and Dejan Nikolic, to think again about the decision to boycott the dialogue with the ruling coalition. “Boycott can be a tool, but the parliament is the place for changes and dialogue,” Fajon said.

Djilas: No free election possible in unfree country (Beta)

Serbia is a land of brave people who don’t give up, president of opposition Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) Dragan Djilas declared on Wednesday in the European Parliament, explaining that opposition parties won’t give up on beating the present corrupted, undemocratic government at fair elections. “But Serbia is also a land where authorities deploy the police against postal workers on strike to intimidate and to threaten them, which is why one worker cut up his veins today. These employees work for a 300 Euros salary, while at the same time the Postal Company hires individuals who are close to the SNS – singers, starlets, presenters, for salaries exceeding 1000 Euros. Djilas, president of Together for Serbia Nebojsa Zelenovic and vice-president of the Democratic Party Dejan Nikolic spoke at a debate dubbed “Serbia in the race for free elections,” organized by group Socialists and Democrats (S&D) at the EP.

Zelenovic:We are committed to a democratic Serbia in EU (Beta)

Nebojsa Zelenovic: “The last few years have seen serious regression in Serbia’s democratic reforms, which has led to the complete state and media capture by the regime”, Nebojsa Zelenovic, leader of Together for Serbia (ZzS), mayor of Sabac, and one of the leaders of opposition coalition Alliance for Serbia (SzS) said on Wednesday, in the European Parliament.

“There can be no doubt that Russian, Chinese and other external influences are growing in Serbia. However, when you ask Serbians where they want their children to grow up, they will name the European Union without question. While EU membership might be an abstract concept for many Serbians, they all want to live in a country modelled after EU member states.

Obradovic: Friday to be D-Day for EU role in Serbia (Beta)

The leader of the Dveri Movement Bosko Obradovic said on Wednesday that the next visit by the European Parliament (EP) delegation to Belgrade on Friday would be ‘decisive’ and could equally bring ‘a bad luck and good luck’ to Serbia and its democracy, the Beta news agency reported. Obradovic told reporters in his native town of Cacak in central Serbia that Friday was the D-Day for the European Union’s role in Serbia because it would have to choose between President Aleksandar Vucic and democracy.  “If the EP high representatives declare there are conditions for elections and that the regime has made ‘significant moves towards the improvement of the elections’ conditions,’ the EU will choose Vucic and some deals which should keep the dictator in power in Serbia with the EU support,” Obradovic said. He recalled that Brussels congratulated former president Tomislav Nikolic in 2012, “three hours before the polling stations closed.” According to Obradovic, in case MEPs confirm what has been said in the European Commission (EC) report on Serbia in April, they will conclude there are no conditions for free and fair elections in the country; that the regime has changed nothing, especially in media freedom, pressure on voters and show-down with the opposition. “In that case, we’ll know that the EU chooses democracy over Vucic, the democracy it proclaims in its ideological agenda for Serbia in the last 30 years,” Obradovic said. He said that although he was not “a fan of foreign interference with the local policy, the EU’s siding with democracy in Serbia would result in real negotiations between the regime and opposition because Aleksandar Vucic would not have a choice. That will end this farce of negotiations in the parliament and create pre-conditions for real talks.” Obradovic said that any attempt to organize regular democratic elections in Serbia with “this criminal and corrupted regime, which would defend its power at any cost, is not a real option.” “That’s why Friday is the D-Day, and the elections due in spring must be postponed to enable fair conditions based on an agreement between the authorities and opposition,” Obradovic said.

Foggo: It would be great if Serbia wanted to join NATO (Blic/Tanjug/B92)

Commander of the Naples Joint Force Command, Admiral James Foggo, believes co-operation between Serbia and NATO will thrive. However, he added, it depends on Serbia to what extent it would like to develop and deepen cooperation. “It would be great if Serbia wanted to become a NATO member. You are currently a partner and your country is very pleased with that. It suits us”, Foggo told Blic. As partners, he explained, Serbia has a choice of “a la carte” menus when it comes to the issues that include training, opportunities, exercises, exchanges, study visits, and other forms of cooperation with NATO. “You will choose what you want to do and how much you want to develop this relationship further, and we will be there for you”, Foggo said. He also stressed that the relationship between Serbia and the East is up to Serbia, nevertheless, he firmly believes that Serbia’s future lies in Euro-Atlantic integration.

REGIONAL PRESS

Tegeltija submits names of Serb and Croat ministers to B&H CEC and SIPA (FTV)

Chairman of the Council of Ministers (CoM) Zoran Tegeltija submitted the names of Serb and Croat ministers to the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) (CEC B&H) and State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) for a background check. Consultations with SNSD and HDZ B&H took place last week, while SDA, SBB and DF still need to submit their candidates. President of SBB Fahrudin Radoncic is mentioned as a candidate for B&H Minister of Security, but information on this will be confirmed next week. ˝I expect Tegeltija to contact us this week and to present his plan on the future CoM, not only in the security sector but in all areas. Based on that, we will have enough input to make a decision˝ said Radoncic. DF is supposed to propose the candidate for B&H Ministry of Defense and it is speculated this will be Sifet Podzic. SDA will take the post of B&H Ministry of Foreign Affairs and their candidate could be Bisera Turkovic or Denis Zvizdic.  The opposition assessed the process of proposing candidates as non-transparent. MP of SDP in the B&H Parliament Sasa Magazinovic said that it is understandable that certain things should not be revealed while they are being discussed, but the entire process of authority formation is non-transparent. Reporter noted that a possible issue in the process of authority formation could be the halt in the formation of Federation of B&H authorities. President of HDZ B&H Dragan Covic said numerous times since the general elections in 2018 that the Federation of B&H government will not be formed before the Election Law is changed. “Imagine how important it is for Croats to have an Election Law in 2022 and for no one else to be able to elect our legitimate representatives,” said Covic. In order for the process of authority formation to start, HDZ B&H needs to propose their candidate for Federation of B&H President. Currently, Marinko Cavara is at this post and HDZ B&H has not proposed anyone yet. Cavara was discussed as a possible candidate for B&H Minister of Civil Affairs, however if he was appointed, the formation of Federation of B&H authorities would have to start as well.

Dodik expects new convocation of B&H CoM to be formed by end of month (RTRS)

Serb member of the B&H Presidency Milorad Dodik stated on Wednesday that he expects the new convocation of the B&H Council of Ministers (CoM) to be formed by the end of the month. He added that Serb and Croat posts in the B&H CoM have been filled and that one is waiting for the names of Bosniak candidates for the B&H CoM which, according to him, could be known by the end of the week. Dodik noted that the future B&H CoM cannot be appointed on December 18, but that it is possible to expect this to happen on December 23, 27 or 28. Dodik added that there are certain speculations about their candidates, but nothing can be done until it is confirmed by Bosniak parties. “In order to work seriously, we need to get official names and submit the names for a background check, like it is defined by law,” said Dodik.

Formation of Council of Ministers opens opportunity for project implementation (Srna)

Serb member of the B&H Presidency Milorad Dodik was talking on the phone tonight with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “The Turkish president voiced his satisfaction with the agreement reached by the election winners on the formation of a new Council of Ministers, which, as the interlocutors agreed, opens the possibility for the soonest implementation of earlier agreed projects as possible, some of which have regional significance, such as motorway connecting B&H, Republika Srpska and Serbia,” the Office of a Serb member of the B&H Presidency announced. The statement reads that Dodik and Erdogan stressed that the necessary preconditions have now been created for B&H to devote itself, through agreement, to solving existing problems in the interest of all its citizens.

Around 700 migrants from Vucjak relocated (N1/RTRS)

Close to 700 migrants have been relocated from Vucjak camp near Bihac. One group of migrants from Vucjak was relocated to Usivak barracks near Hadzici where they will be temporarily accommodated, while another group of migrants from Vucjak were transported to barracks in Blazuj. According to N1, barracks in Blazuj is not completely ready for the reception of migrants given that the problem of water supply and sewage at the barracks has not been solved. Furthermore, about 330 migrants who arrived to the barracks in Blazuj were not provided with beds and warm rooms given that they have been temporarily accommodated in two hangars. However, migrants at barracks in Blazuj were provided with blankets, mattresses and sleeping bags and they will be receiving two hot meals per day. Migrants said that conditions in Blazuj are better than in Vucjak, but that they would return to Vucjak camp. According to RTRS, the situation at the migrant camp in Blazuj is far from good. RTRS stressed that water is being delivered to the camp in cisterns, the camp is being supplied with electricity from a generator, as well as that prefabricated toilets are being installed at barracks in Blazuj given the lack of sewer connection.

Training centre of NATO’s Multinational Special Aviation Program established at Zemunik (Hina)

An international training center of the Multinational Special Aviation Program (MSAP) was inaugurated on Wednesday at the Zemunik barracks near Zadar, and Defense Minister Damir Krsticevic said that MSAP center could become a new NATO center of excellence. This confirms that Croatia is a trustworthy member of the alliance, the minister said at the ceremony.

“We are building new capabilities for the Croatian army, for Croatia and for NATO and what is more important, we are building the future together with our partners and allies,” Krsticevic said. He said he was proud of the fact that at Zemunik the best pilots would be trained to carry out special aviation forces’ operations, which, he added, was proof of the power and respectability of the Croatian Armed Forces. The 11-million-euro center will provide training for helicopter crews from Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The MSAP program is intended for multi-purpose helicopter crews for special air operations and consists of theoretical and multi-week flight training programs for the implementation of unconventional special air force tasks.

The Croatian Armed Forces chief-of-staff, General Mirko Sundov, said that the establishment of the MSAP created prerequisites for conducting training in complex and diversified conditions, which would enable the achievement of the goals defined for each of the countries-contributors to MSAP. NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investment, Camille Grand, said that the development of capabilities of special air forces showed NATO’s ability to develop new capabilities.

Croatia will push for ‘constructive EU-Turkey dialogue’ (Hina)

As presiding country of the EU in the first half of 2020, Croatia will continue to push for a constructive dialogue between the EU and accession candidate Turkey, Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlic Radman said in Ankara on Wednesday. “The European Union and Turkey must continue an open dialogue on many important topics. Croatia will certainly continue to push for a constructive dialogue and cooperation between the European Union and Turkey, and in that sense Turkey can rest assured that it will have a true mediator,” he said at a press conference after talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. Grlic Radman said he informed Turkey of the priorities of Croatia’s presidency of the Council of the EU, which include enlargement, “not just to the Western Balkans but to all candidate countries, including Turkey,” which he added was an important international stakeholder and Croatia’s strategic partner. He said Southeast Europe must not remain a forgotten part of Europe as without that part of the continent, he added, Europe was not complete. He said the two countries had very intensive cooperation at the highest level, very good relations without outstanding issues, and announced that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might visit Croatia again next autumn.

“Our political dialogue at the highest level is very dynamic,” Grlic Radman said, recalling that Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic visited Ankara in January 2016 and Erdogan Zagreb the following April. “Just as we talked and agreed, we expect President Erdogan’s visit to Zagreb at a time which will suit both countries. In the first six months (of 2020), we will have a very active presidency of the Council of the EU, so we planned that visit for the beginning of autumn, when Erdogan could open an Islamic Cultural Centre in Sisak.” Grlic Radman said he and Cavusoglu also talked about terrorism and migration, in which Croatia applauded “Turkey’s important role.” “I told Minister Cavusoglu that Croatia highly appreciates the efforts Turkey is making in providing for more than four million Syrian, Iraqi and Afghan refugees” as well as for the fight against illegal migration and human trafficking, he added. “Croatia too is making big efforts on the Western Balkan route” Grlic Radman said, adding that another topic was the continuation of cooperation between Croatia, Turkey and B&H. “A stable and functioning B&H which guarantees the equality of the three constituent peoples, Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs, is in both Croatia’s and Turkey’s interest.”

Montenegro to step into 2020 with new Religious Freedom Law (CDM)

Montenegrin MPs will be discussing the new proposed Law on Religious Freedom determined by the government on Thursday at the session scheduled for 24 Dec. It is expected that the MPs of the ruling coalition will vote in favor of this law, as well as the MPs from the Bosniak Party and the Social Democrats. The new law, among other things, guarantees legal security for every religious community. The proposed new law also guarantees the full right to freedom of religion and equal position of all religious communities in Montenegro, as well as the full right to belief for atheists. Moreover, the new law proposes to register as state property of all religious buildings and sites formerly owned by the independent kingdom of Montenegro before it became part of the Serb-dominated Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, later called Yugoslavia, in 1918. The new law states that religious communities can only retain their assets if they can produce clear evidence of the right to ownership, spurring accusations from the Serbian Orthodox Church that the govt plans to confiscate its holdings. “The government does not intend to enter churches, nor does it intend to prevent anyone from enjoying their religious rights in these buildings,” the govt concluded reflecting on this whole matter. The 1977 Law on Religious Freedom is still in force in Montenegro.

Mickoski in Paris: The main obstacle to justice in Macedonia is the Prime Minister (Republika)

VMRO-DPMNE leader Hristijan Mickoski, together with Vice President Aleksandar Nikoloski, and VMRO-DPMNE EC member Igor Nikolov met Wednesday in Paris with members of the French Senate Marta de Cidrac and Arnaud Bazin, who is also chairman of the French-Macedonian friendship group. At the meeting they discussed current issues and issues related to the strategic interests of the Republic of Macedonia, as well as the needs for reforms and strengthening of the mutual friendship. VMRO-DPMNE President Hristijan Mickoski affirmed the commitment to progress on the EU integration plan, as well as putting the country on a fast track that would imply urgent reforms that would take Macedonia out of the dead end that the current government brought. Mickoski underlined the firm commitment to the fight against crime, and zero tolerance for corruption. He also emphasized that steps are needed that will lead to economic progress and improvement of the standard of the citizens. “Unfortunately, today we have a situation where the main obstacle to justice is the Prime Minister,” said Mickoski, adding that it is necessary to free the justice system from political constraints and the rule of law.

The renewal advocated by VMRO-DPMNE refers to changes for the better in all spheres and areas, implementation of policies based on principles and values, he stressed at the meeting.

At the same time, the President of VMRO-DPMNE emphasized that he is committed to strategic partnership with the Republic of France and deepening of the mutual economic and political cooperation.

Outgoing Prime Minister: Venice Commission’s recommendations must be respected (Republika)

Outgoing Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, commenting on developments following the Venice Commission’s recommendations on the Law on Languages, said that as a government they do not intend to go back and intend to guarantee the rights they have been granted but to be practically applicable. “The right to use language is a human right, we should nurture it, it does not endanger any other right of any other ethnicity or any other language, but if that right endangers another right such as the right to justice, then everyone should think over. This is recommended by the Venice Commission. So, we need to follow the recommendations ourselves, to implement them. We will discuss the ways of implementation with the institutions,” said the outgoing Prime Minister in response to a reporter’s question. He added that they would continue to work together with the opposition Albanian parties in seeking a solution for the recommendations of the Venice Commission to be implemented.

Albanian parties united in the position that the law on languages will not change (Republika)

VMRO-DPMNE’s parliamentary group has announced that it will soon submit amendments to the Law on the Use of Languages, which, as the party says, will mean its compliance with the Venice Commission’s recommendations. Parliament Speaker Talat Xhaferi believes that MPs have the right to submit these amendments, but that their adoption also requires the so-called. Badinter majority, which, according to him, cannot be secured, because there is no such mood among Albanian MPs. He also considers that the Commission’s opinion is not binding, a position the Alliance for Albanians agrees with. The BESA Movement, however, having the same opinion that changes to the Law on the Use of Languages ​​is not possible due to the inability to secure the Badinter majority, also believes that the opening of the issue is part of the SDSM and DUI pre-election games, but of the opposition VMRO-DPMNE party as well for securing political points. SDSM says they do not want to comment before seeing the amendments proposed by VMRO-DPMNE, but emphasize that a broader debate is needed on this issue to build a common position. The Venice Commission is clear in its recommendations that the legislative solutions go beyond the Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities and the European Charter for Regional and Minority Languages. What is covered by the Law is not a European practice, said Dragan Danev of VMRO-DPMNE.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

North Macedonia in the “mini Schengen” looking glass (Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, by Ilcho Cvetanoski, 12 December 2019)

North Macedonia has enthusiastically welcomed the mini-Schengen initiative in the Western Balkans, wanted by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. A deeper analysis, however, reveals many doubts and concerns

After the initial meeting of early October in the Serbian town of Novi Sad, a second summit – held a month later in the North Macedonian town of Ohrid – delivered tangible information regarding the so called “Mini-Schengen initiative”. Promoted by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and wholeheartedly supported by Prime Minister of North Macedonia Zoran Zaev and Albania’s Edi Rama, the Mini-Schengen initiative is based on “four freedoms”: namely, free movement of goods, capital, services, and people. The action plan, which is supposed to be implemented by 2021, includes: free movement between the countries with identity cards only; 24/7 control services at border crossings and a fast lane for trucks transporting goods and products; mutual recognition of all documents from veterinary agencies and other administrative institutions; recognition of professional qualifications and greater mobility of students and youth; automatic recognition of academic titles; and strengthening police cooperation for cross-border contrast to crime, terrorism, illegal migration, and emergencies. According to the initial plan, all six Western Balkan (WB6) countries should be included in the project. However, only three have shown clear approval for the initiative so far, while Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo are not willing to join at this moment or do not have a clear stance on the issue. Although the initiative was enthusiastically welcomed by institutional Skopje, a serious debate in the media and in public discourse has yet to start, perhaps due to the bad timing of the initial meeting in Novi Sad, held on October 10th, when the Macedonian public was preoccupied with the French reluctance regarding the start of EU accession negotiations. Nonetheless, such a serious initiative should be under comprehensive scrutiny. So far, debates have mainly revolved around the economic and political implications of the Mini-Schengen initiative.

Economic implications

Macedonian media reverberate Vučić’s message that the region will save 3.5 billion Euros by opening its borders for transport of goods as one of most catchy arguments in favour. On the local level, the trade exchange between North Macedonia and all Western Balkan countries in the last years is around 1,1 billion dollars, or approximately 10% of the total exchange. Thus, there is a huge margin for further economic collaboration within the region. An op-ed by Professor Elena Milevska-Shtrbevska, from the Economic Chamber of Macedonia (ECM), highlights that one of the biggest problems for the economy is the slow transport of goods and services through state borders. According to the World Bank, trucks spend around 26 million hours annually on the border posts in the Western Balkans. VOA published testimonies from a truck driver complaining of the time-consuming border procedures in the region. Namely, if a load of fresh meat is loaded on a Friday morning in the Netherlands, the truck will be on the border of Serbia and North Macedonia by the afternoon of the next day. Then the problems start. “Believe it or not, the truck is on the border waiting until Monday for customs and related procedures. In a day and a half, it manages to drive through the EU for 2,400 kilometres, and for the final 200 kilometres we need to wait additional two and a half days due to the necessary controls”, said businessman Mevmed Dzemailoski. On the other hand, from the economic point of view, the initiative could be problematic because North Macedonia cannot compete financially with Serbia and Albania. Economics Professor Jovanka Damoska Sekuloska said that one should be very careful regarding such initiatives. “Before joining, one should work on suppressing corruption and implement thorough institutional reforms; also, all potential Mini-Schengen countries are already members of CEFTA”. Secretary General of the Regional Cooperating Council Majlinda Bregu stresses that “the hardest question still looms: what is the novelty out of the Ohrid meeting?”, as all six economies of the region are in the process of creating the Regional Economic Area, officially introduced in 2017. “Bilateral disputes, different approaches have contributed to a deferral of a joint economic area. Far too many obligations from regional agreements have not yet been met”.

Also, Milevska-Shtrbevska raises the same dilemma – is Mini-Schengen a parallel initiative to the already established Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA)? From her point of view, there is one key question that needs answer – is there true political will for the project to be fully implemented?

Political implications

Considering the timing of the initiative, professor Anastas Gjurovski highlights that it is obvious that the project is primarily about the political and diplomatic plans of Serbia and Albania, and secondarily about the economy. Also, along the same political logic, Macedonia needs to show good neighbourly initiative before the EU, thus Mini-Schengen has been seen as a good project for the time being by all three countries. NGO activist Đelal Hođić, in a column for daily Sloboden Pechat, highlights that the Mini-Schengen project will be dysfunctional if not all countries join in. There is no economic development without functioning democracy, Hođić points out, adding that peace, stability, and good neighbourly relations are preconditions for good economic relations: “In that sense, what are Serbia’s relations with surrounding countries?”. According to Montenegrin novelist and columnist Andrej Nikolaidis, Mini-Schengen – or, as he calls it, “the Kingdom of Serbs and Albanians” – will put an end to the European integration of the region. “Instead of full defeat of the two biggest threats to the peace and security of the region – Greater Serbia and Natural Albania – the nationalistic fantasies will be upheld and carried out to the detriment of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Macedonia”, Nikolaidis said. Other experts, however, believe that the Mini-Schengen initiative does not have any negative impact on the EU accession of the Western Balkans and that it goes hand in hand with the process. “One of the conditions for candidate and potential candidate countries to join the EU is establishing effective regional cooperation before joining. Mini-Schengen does precisely that”, says Srđan Cvijić, Senior Policy Analyst for the European Western Balkans at the Open Society European Policy Institute and member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG). Florian Bieber, professor at the University of Graz and member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), argues that Mini-Schengen is a good initiative and it is “hard to see anything bad about it”. “Freedom of movement should be a desirable goal, especially making it easier to reduce the importance of borders for citizens. However, it is not alternative to the EU accession or closer ties to the EU”, states Bieber, adding that most trade and economic links are not in the region, but with EU members, so Mini-Schengen cannot replace them. Both experts point out that Mini-Schengen is essentially “a homegrown initiative” and “a sign of maturity and the continuation of the positive spirit established in Prespa”.

Conclusion

In order to give an answer to the main dilemma – is Mini-Schengen a viable, long-term initiative, or just temporary political manoeuvre? – one needs to take into consideration the context, history, regional disputes, and the timing of the initiative. None of these variables looks reassuring. In fact, the timing is perfect for the conspiracy theories to flourish. As the initiative was promoted just when France put on hold the EU aspirations of North Macedonia and Albania, there are serious arguments in favour of the theory that France will use it to push for group accession into EU, meaning all WB6 countries to join together. In the case of North Macedonia, this is quite problematic in view of the compromises recently made under the promise to open accession negotiations. Also, the context is not supportive of the idea. Given the existence of the older, similar, and fully functioning CEFTA, why should one spend energy and time to create a new one? Also, some of the benefits of a “Mini-Schengen initiative” are already in place. Namely, Macedonian citizens are travelling in all Western Balkan countries only with IDs. And considering the regional disputes that the main promotor of the initiative, Vučić, is fuelling – primarily with Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina – instead of resolving, there is not much hope for a positive outcome. Even optimistic analysts are quite cautious regarding Vučić both promoting regional cooperation and undermining regional stability. “You cannot at the same time build bridges and inflame the domestic public against the neighbours as some leaders in the region are doing, but Mini-Schengen is generally taking a step in the right direction that can be only beneficial to the citizens of the Balkans”, Cvijić states. The worst that could happen to Mini-Schengen is to be swallowed by Nikolaidis’s “Kingdom of Serbs and Albanians” in a nationalist framework. What would be even worse is a good initiative being promoted by the wrong people too early or in wrong constellations.