By Perparim Isufi, Maja Zivanovic BIRN Pristina, Belgrade

Analysts say recent heated rhetoric about the possibility of border changes will affect the popularity of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his Kosovo counterpart Hashim Thaci – but probably not enough to unseat them.

The recent intensive exchange of statements about border ‘corrections’ between Serbia and Kosovo will affect the popularity of both presidents, analysts believe.

Emilija Brkic from the the Belgrade-based Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, CeSid, told BIRN that Vucic’s recent statements on Kosovo will alter his public standing.

“But not changes that are drastic at a level that would completely change his dominant position,” Brkic underlined.

Given that this is a strategic decision of great importance for both Serbia and the entire region, Brkic added, it can be expected that its consequences will be felt in terms of the support Vucic has.

“The fact is that it is impossible that the consequences of resolving such a large… issue which divided the Serbian public are not felt in party life – in the sense of minor reassignments both among voters and within the [ruling Progressive] party,” Brkic explained.

Vucic told Serbian newspaper Vecernje novosti on August 10 that “we want clear borders, not provisory ones like today, in which one thing is written, and we have something quite different in the field”.

Vucic said that when it’s not clear what belongs to who, “it is always a source of potential conflicts”.

Vucic’s rhetoric on Kosovo has zigzagged markedly over the years, beginning with statements vowing that his Serbian Progressive Party would not “hand over” Kosovo if it came to power.

He repeated this insistence after his party won Serbia’s general election in May 2012.

“The policy of the new [Progressive-led] government … will be not recognising Kosovo,” he said in July that year, according to Deutsche Welle.

In recent weeks however he has floated the possibility of some kind of ‘border correction’ as part of a final deal to normalise relations with Kosovo.

“[We will see] whether it [border delimitation] will get the support of the people or not, but I advocate delimitation with the Albanians,” Vucic told journalists during an event in the northern Serbian town of Sid, on August 9 Tanjug news agency reported.

Vucic has suggested putting any final proposal on Kosovo to a referendum. On August 7, he promised again that Serbian citizens will be involved in the decision-making.

“People will be informed about all the facts… they will have to comment in a very clear and precise [way] on a potential agreement that we might one day come to,” he told a press conference, N1 TV reported.

But even if his popularity does take a hit, Vucic’s political dominance as the country’s leader appears unassailable, both inside and outside Serbia.

Brkic said that huge media support, exceptional material and human resources, and a weak opposition “makes Vucic the only relevant interlocutor to Western partners”

That means it is “unrealistic to expect that these changes will lead to serious shifts in the political scene, or reverse existing trends”, Brkic added.

Will Thaci feel the heat?

With his latest statements on ‘border corrections’, President Hashim Thaci has become the most controversial political figure among Albanians, said Pristina-based journalist Agron Halitaj

“But it does not mean he is enjoying positive popularity. On the contrary,” Halitaj told BIRN.

But Halitaj questioned Thaci’s attitude to Albanians living in southern Serbia over the course of the European Union-facilitated dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade, which started in 2011.

“Since the dialogue started, seven years ago, Thaci has not given any single piece of proof that he is committed to resolving the issue of Albanians in the Presevo Valley while representatives of that part [of Serbia] have always asked for reciprocity in terms of their rights, [to make them equal to] those [rights] that Kosovo has given to Serbs,” Halitaj said.

“Now when the dialogue has entered its final stage and when new compromises from the Kosovo side are expected, Thaci aims to make a solution for substantial autonomy for northern Serbs [in Kosovo] more acceptable by preserving Kosovo’s constitutional borders according to the principle of ‘neither the [Presevo] valley to Kosovo, nor [Kosovo] north to Serbia’,” he added.

In 2012, when Thaci was prime minister, the Kosovo Assembly adopted a resolution authorising the premier to lead the dialogue.

Current Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj seems uninterested in taking the lead in the talks, however, while the opposition has accused Thaci of ‘usurping’ the process without parliament’s consent.

Last month, Thaci invited Kosovo opposition representatives aboard for the final stage of the dialogue with Serbia by establishing negotiation team, strategic team and joint commissions to work on issues that are expected to be addressed during the talks.

However, opposition parties – specifically the Democratic League of Kosovo, Vetevendosje [Self-Determination] and the Social Democratic Party – rejected the offer, saying that Thaci has neither authority nor the legitimacy to invite them to the table.

The partition of Kosovo or exchange of territories is among the least-desired outcomes for the Kosovo public, according to a survey published last month by a Pristina-based think tank, the Kosovo Democratic Institute.

The survey on dialogue showed that a 78 per cent of respondents do not expect a final deal between Kosovo and Serbia which includes the exchange of territories, while 84 per cent “will not accept” Kosovo’s partition.

“Any change of borders could cause chain reactions in the entire Balkans by affecting peace and stability in general,” Jeta Krasniqi of the Kosovo Democratic Institute told BIRN.

Meanwhile, Halitaj sees the risk of the situation deteriorating, either in Serb-majority northern Kosovo or in the ethnic Albanian-majority Presevo Valley in southern Serbia.

“This [scenario] could keep Thaci as the main player in the game for many more years,” he suggested.

“People are not so stupid to trust in such a great fairytale that Kosovo will expand its borders by taking the [largely Albanian-populated] Presevo Valley [in southern Serbia] without leaving behind any part of its territory in the north [of Kosovo], which is inhabited by a Serb majority,” he added.

Thaci has startled his countrymen and women – and angered some opposition parties – by issuing a series of equivocal and mixed messages on the subject of partition.

While denying the possibility of ethnically-based land swaps with Serbia, Thaci at the same time has called the possibility of Kosovo acquiring majority ethnic-Albanian areas of southern Serbia “realisable”.

“Demarcation and the correction of borders will be discussed,” he said on August 2, “although the realisation of Serbian aspirations for the partition of Kosovo cannot be imposed within the framework of border correction, under any circumstances or for any price.”

“Meanwhile, I think the institutional demand of representatives of the Presevo Valley to join Kosovo is very realisable and acceptable to us,” he added.