LOCAL PRESS

Vucic: My Kosovo policy is defeated (Blic)

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Monday that his policy for Kosovo has suffered a defeat. In a speech at the meeting of the main board of SNS party in Belgrade, in the open part of the session – before the meeting was continued behind closed doors -Vucic said that he and his closest associates had been trying to bring back the Kosovo issue on the negotiating table, but this policy was defeated, primarily in Serbia.

“Serbs prefer crying over something that is far away than having something to hold” Vucic said. “The first round goes to the Serbia which cries, not the Serbia which wins” he added.  We missed and lost everything what we could obtain because of reactions in Serbia, where my every attempt of implementing the Kosovo policy is condemned” Vucic said. “We are responsible for losing everything we could get in Kosovo. My policy is that Serbia should preserve a lot in Kosovo, but it appears that some persons prefer losing all and then we would fare well” he continued. “At least for now, the victory is won by “crying Serbia, and not winning Serbia” he said. “I am afraid we will not have another chance, but we will continue to fight for our people in Kosovo”, he added.

He said his speech in Kosovska Mitrovica was meant to show a discontinuity with the policies of Serbian and Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, but that no one wanted to hear that because the region needs a bad, belligerent Serbia which threatens war. Vucic said that many in the West do not want Serbia interfering in the Kosovo issue which he said is the product of an irresponsible and catastrophic policy earlier. “We threw ourselves out of the UN, we handed down a judgement against ourselves in 2012 (at the International Court of Justice which ruled that Kosovo’s declaration of independence was not in violation of international law) and in 2011 we set up a border at Brnjak separating Serbs from Serbs,” the Serbian President said.

He voiced “great fear” over “everything that is looming over Serbia” and added that he can’t predict “what is going to happen in the next 15-20 days”.

“Serbia was responsible in securing peace and stability in the region. We took care not to endanger the Serbs living in the region. Don’t forget that many view Serbia as an upsetting factor, believing that Serbia can only become someone’s friend when it is weak and demeans itself” Vucic said. “I am prepared to apologize when we make a mistake but my job is to protect the country’s interest,” he said.

“Vucic has been told he can drag out Kosovo solution” (Tanjug, Blic, Vecernje Novosti)

It seems that a solution to the Kosovo issue will not be found either in 2018 or in early 2019, “despite the wishes of the international community.” Belgrade-based press is saying this in articles published on Tuesday.

Daily Blic said it learned from diplomatic sources that “pressure from western countries to solve the open issue between Serbia and Kosovo is slowly waning.”

The Brussels-based source also told Blic that Germany and France have realized that the final solution to the Kosovo issue is not even on the horizon, “so the decision has been made not to insist on solving that question by the end of 2018 or in early 2019.”

That message has reached top Serbian officials, and, according to the newspaper, President Aleksandar Vucic has been told in several meetings that he can “drag Kosovo our for a couple more years.”

The reason for this is reportedly that Pristina does not want to make any kind of compromise, while Serbia and its president are determined to reach a solution through compromise – “however, the good will of one side is not enough.”

At the same time, as stated in the article, the problem also turns out to be that Hashim Thaci does not have the support of his constituency as much as Vucic does in central Serbia, and therefore does not dare to come up with any concrete solution, except occasionally referring to delimitation (“border correction”) – but persistently refusing to comply with the obligation to form the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO).

The last round of dialogue in Brussels ended before it started because Vucic refused to meet with Thaci, Blic noted, adding that in the meantime some of the most powerful countries have begun to change their attitude towards Pristina, expecting the United States to exert “final pressure” on representatives of the Kosovo government – which, however, has not happened.

The newspaper also notes that the Trump administration unexpectedly “relaxed” its stance towards Belgrade – so in just a few weeks things went from being “done deal, Kosovo is an independent state” to “Washington will not interfere in the process, will support everything the two interested parties agree on.”

Along with the clear position of Russia, which says it will support any solution that the Serbian side agrees to, Blic also recalled the words of EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn from the beginning of September who said the whole process should be completed by next year – and this would be the first time that the deadline is no longer the end of this or the beginning of 2019.

Another Belgrade daily, Vecernje Novosti, quotes Secretary General of the European Movement in Serbia Suzana Grubjesic, who said that it was no surprise that there was no longer any time limit, “because it is obvious that some things have changed since the United States got more seriously interested in the dialogue.”

Dacic: National priority to achieve political solution for KiM (Tanjug)

First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said in New York that Serbia’s national priority is a political solution for Kosovo and Metohija (KiM).

Defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Serbia defends international law, the UN Charter, the preservation of international peace and security, but also its national and historical identity, Dacic said at the Peace Summit, in honor of the birth anniversary of Nelson Mandela, on the eve of the 73rd General Assembly United Nations Assemblies.

He stressed that Serbia is sincerely committed to peace and dialogue, which, with the mediation of the European Union, runs between Belgrade and Pristina, as well as the implementation of the agreements reached. “By leading responsible politics, we will do our best to protect the interests of our people, but also regional peace and stability” said the head of Serbian diplomacy.

Dacic said that Serbia, as a leader in the region in terms of participation in UN peacekeeping operations, believes that successful peacekeeping is a shared responsibility that requires continued engagement and commitment, as well as the continued strengthening of all necessary United Nations capacities.

“We are adding special importance to the functioning of the UN mission in Kosovo and Metohija, and we emphasize that UNMIK’s status neutral presence undiminished scope is of vital importance for stability and security and creating of conditions that should lead towards a lasting and sustainable solution to the issue of Kosovo and Metohija” said Dacic.

He stressed that Serbia strongly condemns terrorism and all aspects of extremism and radicalism that jeopardize peace and that we are ready, under the leading role of the UN, to contribute to the suppression of these threats with our partners around the world.

According to him, the world today faces numerous challenges and threats, big and rapid changes are taking place, the crises are complex and often interconnected, just like their consequences.

It is necessary to actively work in finding common, global responses. For Serbia UN has undoubtedly the central place and role in the international community. We believe that the goals and principles defined by the UN Charter are still as current and necessary today, said Dacic.

He said that sovereign equality of states, renunciation of the use of force, non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, peaceful resolution of disputes and respect for differences, are principles whose relevance does not lose importance.

“Serbia support the equal participation of states in the global governance system, and we are convinced that with political will and genuine readiness for joint work, we can do more in implementing a driving vision of a better world for everyone, in which the strengthened and modernized role of the UN would have a prominent place” said the head of Serbian diplomacy.

According to him, prevention and peaceful resolution of disputes and crises are one of the most important elements in building and preserving international peace and security.

“We therefore consider curtail the strengthening of the culture of peace and dialogue, the policy of compromise and the peaceful coexistence of the people. We believe that, in the face of rising threats and new challenges, constructive work is needed to achieve the preconditions for sustainable peace, strengthening institutions and democracy, promoting and respecting human rights and the rule of law” he said.

Dacic said that the Agenda for Sustainable Development by 2030 should be considered a historical document, a vision of the development of the world that provides an opportunity to secure a better future for mankind, with the eradication of poverty and hunger, providing inclusive education and health, reducing the growing inequality within and between countries.

He pointed out that today the world is changing rapidly, but that many of the goals that Nelson Mendel has highlighted as a great promoter of peace are still current. “We need to work more on promoting peace, reconciliation, unity, non-discrimination, protection and promotion of human rights” Dacic said at the Peace Summit in honor of the birth anniversary of Nelson Mandela.

Serbia believes that the Summit, held on the eve of the very beginning of the general debate of the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly, can also be more than symbolic, that in the year marking 100 years since Nelson Mandela’s birth, it contributes to the constructive atmosphere necessary for further progress in achieving of the UN’s goals, of which, without a doubt, the most precious is peace in the world.

“Serbia, as one of the successors of Yugoslavia, proudly emphasizes the role of the then SFRY and President Tito in the establishment of the Non-Aligned Movement. The movement played an important role in decolonizing, fighting apartheid and continuing efforts to improve the economic and social position of the underdeveloped and developing countries” said Dacic.

“I want to convince you that Serbia is a sincere and willing partner to all countries that are ready to share the responsibility of implementing a joint, more stable, more equitable, more developed and prosperous world” concluded the head of Serbian diplomacy.

United States encourages continuation of Belgrade-Pristina dialogue (RTS)

Prime Minister Ana Brnabic began a visit to New York by meeting with Senator Ron Johnson, Chair of the Senate Homeland Security Committee and of the Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation.

During the talks, Brnabic said she would use her visit to the United States and participation in the general debate at the UN General Assembly to discuss with world leaders Serbia’s achievements in political and economic reforms. Serbia is committed to stability and we will do everything to preserve peace and stability in the region, the Prime Minister said and underlined that Pristina does not contribute to dialogue and makes it difficult to reach a solution.

Senator Johnson, who visited Belgrade in early September this year, said that he conveyed to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic the message that the United States is a friend of Serbia and the Serbian people. The United States wants to help find a solution to Kosovo-Metohija and we encourage the continuation of dialogue of the two sides, Johnson reiterated.

The Prime Minister underlined that it is very important that the US Administration has changed its attitude towards Serbia.  Brnabic noted that for Serbia it is very important to receive support on its path to the EU and concluded that EU membership is the main foreign policy goal of Serbia and that there is no alternative to that.

Vucic: Interference of certain Western powers in elections in the Republika Srpska (RTS)

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he would present, after the election in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) on 7 October, “striking evidence about most brutal interference of certain Western powers in this election” in the Republika Srpska (RS).

“I hope that everything will be fine with the RS and our people there” Vucic said, adding that he smiled and then he did not know what to say when some people talked about Serbia interfering

in the election in B&H”. “I will wait for the end of the election, we will not interfere in the decision of our people in RS, but I will present the evidence after the election, striking evidence about most brutal interference of certain Western powers in the election in RS… and on top, let them find Serbs who will accuse Serbia of interference, then everything will be clear to you”, he said. This interference is going that far that “ambassadors of the western countries are calling people from ticket of certain parties and threaten that they must not change sides or otherwise they would be held responsible for crimes that they committed or they did not”, he aid and added he had an “entire book” of evidence about this interference.

Brnabic at the Trump’s reception (B92, PrvaTV)

Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic attended New York reception hosted by US President Donald Tramp, who is presiding over the UN General Assembly on Wednesday.

She was among the 200 world officials who at least briefly talked to Tramp.

“I cannot say that I had time for a long conversation, but I thanked him for a new understanding of Serbia and an openness towards Serbia, to have understanding for our position and to hear our voice,” the Prime Minister of Serbia told TV Prva . As she added, there were many well-known faces and partners, old allies and representatives of countries with whom we still have open issues. “It was very interesting and useful to be in one place with all these people” she said.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Dodik meets Strache and Gudenus in Vienna; Strache says Austrian Government wants to help RS in all areas (RTRS)

Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik met with Vice-Chancellor of Austria Heinz-Christian Strache and head of the Caucus of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) in the Austrian Parliament Johann Gudenus in Vienna on Monday. Strache said that the Austrian Government wants to help the RS in all areas, especially in the area of infrastructural projects. Strache also said that Austria is pursuing a policy of peace and that it wants to help Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) on the European path. “We know that elections in B&H and the RS will be held soon and we want to wish the president a lot of success in presidential elections,” Strache underlined.

RTRS noted that longtime friendship between Dodik and Strache could be deepened with an agreement from the area of infrastructural projects, adding that details of that agreement will be agreed by the relevant ministries of the RS and Austria. “What we want is to sign as soon as possible an agreement related to infrastructural projects which are developing here very well and in that respect we see certain possibilities for cooperation,” Dodik told media after the meeting.

RTRS stressed that Dodik, Strache and Gudenus also discussed the migrant crisis in B&H. Both Dodik and Strache expressed common interest in protecting the border not of the EU only, but also the border of the Balkans. Gudenus underlined that “we have to fight together with our friends” to return migrants to their home countries. “I am very proud of my friendship with Mr. Dodik, with a brave man who shares our position to prevent the influx of illegal migrants and radicalization of Islam in those areas in Europe. We have to join forces and fight against that and help our friends in those areas to make sure there is no spread of radicalization of Islam and to change the course of the situation,” Gudenus stressed. Dodik, Strache and Gudenus sent a message that the European Union (EU) has to come up with a response to the migrant crisis. Strache and Gudenus also said that they are against the open-door policy advocated by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Serbia Minister Vulin: We want to work and make progress, not wage wars (Glas Srpske)

Commenting on accusations according to which Serbia is arming Republika Srpska (RS), Minister of Defense of Serbia Aleksandar Vulin said that no one is talking about the fact Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Bakir Izetbegovic said one month ago that B&H is no longer unarmed, and will not fight without weapons in the next war. “What war? We want to work, live, make progress! And those who are talking about war are obviously thinking about it as well. They are accusing Serbia of arming someone, and a man from B&H says, ‘we have’, not we will have or if it happens, and no one is commenting on that”, said Vulin. He concluded that strengthening of Serbia will always cause reaction of those who believe that any kind of Serbia is too much of Serbia.

Police find larger quantity of pistols, rifle, silencers on migrants in Sarajevo (N1)

Members of the Sarajevo Canton (SC) Ministry of Interior (MoI) apprehended on Sunday two migrants, including one national of Syria and one national of Algeria, for illegal possession of weapons and explosives. Namely, around 4 pm on Sunday, members of the SC MoI stopped the two migrants asking them to show them their IDs. However, instead of showing the police their IDs, the migrants started running and dropped a bag with a pistol in it. Spokesperson for the SC MoI Suvada Kuldija stressed that the SC MoI carried out several raids in the area of municipalities of Stari Grad and Centar on Sunday afternoon. “The police found one rifle, four pistols, one silencer and over a hundred bullets of various calibers,” Kuldija stressed.

B&H Minister of Security Dragan Mektic said that migrants have their own theory about the possession of weapons, but that he cannot give any more information. Mektic also said that there is a possibility that citizens of B&H are involved in this case given that weapons were found in an apartment in Sarajevo. Meanwhile, the two migrants were handed over to the Prosecutor’s Office of Sarajevo Canton.

Spokesperson for the Prosecutor’s Office of Sarajevo Canton Azra Bavcic said that after the arrestees are questioned, the acting prosecutor will decide on further actions, explaining that the two migrants are suspected of illegal possession of weapons or explosive materials. N1 stressed that the prosecutor will decide whether court proceedings will be launched against the two migrants and in that case they would be placed in jail. If this does not happen, the migrants will be handed over to the B&H Service for Foreigners’ Affairs and they will be sent to the Immigration Center in Istocno Sarajevo

Republika Srpska (RS) Police Director Darko Culum said that all security institutions in B&H must raise precautionary and security measures to a higher level after weapons and ammunition were found in the possession of migrants in Sarajevo. “The fact the weapons were found in the possession of migrants speak about the complete situation when it comes to the migrant crisis,” said Culum. He has reminded that the RS Ministry of Interior (RS MoI) was warning for more than a year that there has been a risk and danger of migrants coming to B&H, which is now certain. “More than 90 percent of them do not possess personal documents; they come here and express their intention to seek asylum, and in reality, less than ten percent of them do actually apply for asylum. The question arises about the reasons why they come”, said Culum.

Croatia

President meets with UN Secretary General; borders in the territory of the former Yugoslavia must stay carved in stone (Hina)

Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic said in New York on Monday, after meeting with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, that they shared concern about the situation in southeastern Europe ahead of forthcoming important events.

“It was a very productive meeting. I respect the fact that during these days he has 128 meetings so we agreed to continue our dialogue. We share concern about the situation in southeastern Europe, about a series of forthcoming processes, starting from elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the fact that the country’s election law has not been changed, to negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, to anticipation of the result of the Macedonian referendum” the President told the press after the meeting.

She added that Guterres was very well acquainted with the situation in the region. “I would want him to get a little bit more involved. I would want us to launch initiatives that will lead to resolving open issues and to a lasting peace in southeastern Europe. We agreed to continue our cooperation, meetings and talks.”

Grabar-Kitarovic also discussed the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue with Kosovo’s President Hashim Thaci, particularly possible territory swaps. “We are very cautious in that regard and I conveyed our arguments and our view and the fact that the principle of the Badinter Commission concerning borders in the territory of the former Yugoslavia must stay carved in stone.”

The Croatian President attended a reception given by US President Donald Trump and the First Lady for senior officials participating in the annual UN General Assembly meeting.

Grabar-Kitarovic said she had already met with the US president during Monday’s summit on narcotics and that they would also meet on the margins of the General Assembly on Tuesday. “We will continue to talk about our bilateral relations and I will continue to put pressure for a double taxation agreement, and of course the visa regime and the rest, but we will also talk about issues concerning our neighborhood, the Three Seas Initiative, and generally about our relations within NATO and global security.”

She said that UN General Assembly meetings were an opportunity for her to meet with heads of state with whom she otherwise did not have an opportunity to meet, adding that earlier in the day she had met with the presidents of Paraguay, Namibia and Cuba, and that she had been invited to visit Cuba.

Grabar-Kitarovic was due to address the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, but her speech has been rescheduled for Wednesday at her own request so that she can have more time for bilateral meetings.

Montenegro

Pazin: Montenegro is ready to close eight chapters (CDM)

Montenegro deeply appreciates many-year long stable relations with Romania, and it counts on its support during the forthcoming Romanian presiding over the EU starting from January next year, said the Vice-President of the Government and Minister of Justice, Zoran Pazin during the meeting with Romanian Minister of Justice, Tudorel Toader who is in his official visit to Montenegro.

Pazin pointed out that priorities of Montenegro are opening negotiations in the remaining two chapters, from the area of competition and environmental protection, as well as intensifying activities regarding closure of negotiation chapters.

“We believe we are ready to close two chapters and soon we’ll implement all internal procedures and become ready to close six more negotiation chapters” said Pazin. He added that primary purpose of EU integration is the establishment of institutions which would provide equal rights and possibilities for all citizens as well as  reliable justice system for the entire business community. In that context, Pazin expressed his gratitude to Romania which contributed to the reinforcement of Montenegrin legal framework.

fYROM

MoI takes all necessary measures for upcoming referendum to be carried out in orderly manner (MIA)

In line with its competences, the Ministry of Interior Affairs has been taking all necessary measures for the voting process on the referendum day – 30 September – to be carried out in orderly manner, namely for citizens to be able to freely express their will. As stipulated by the law, all forms of pressure, threat or intimidation will be thwarted and sanctioned. It is also the case with any attempt to prevent citizens to exercise their voting right, MoI said in a press release.

Ivanov: No politician has mandate to negotiate over identity of a nation (MIA)

No politician has the mandate to negotiate over the identity of a nation. The majority of Macedonian citizens have not voted for a programme that includes constitutional revision for the purpose of changing the country’s name. Therefore, the incumbent authorities have no mandate from the people and the voters to change the identity, give up on the diaspora, erase history and memory, said President Gjorge Ivanov. Ivanov said the Republic of Macedonia is an eternal asset, which is now brought into question through the agreement with Greece and the coming referendum, the President’s Office said in a press release.

“Bringing into question this eternal asset brings into question our existence as a nation. This agreement is an attempt to humiliate us as no other nation had been before. They want to make us dumb by considering that we do not know our name,” said Ivanov. The President reiterated that he would not vote at the September 30 referendum.

“Renaissance men fought for freedom from spiritual slavery. Revolutionaries fought for freedom from political slavery. Should we now, after all this sacrifice, run into a new slavery? Should we deny ourselves of the freedom to call ourselves by our own name? Should we be afraid of saying there is a Republic of Macedonia, thus insulting someone? To say Republic of Macedonia is no shame,” added Ivanov.

Dimitrov: Ivanov’s boycott us shying away from responsibility (MIA)

The statement of President Gjorge Ivanov that he will not vote at the coming referendum is no surprise for us. Shying away from responsibility is shameful, and on top of that, uttered from across the ocean not in Macedonia,” said Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov. FM Dimitrov referred to Ivanov’s past actions to pardon individuals charged with corruption, crime and abuse of office, and the failure to give the mandate to the party having a majority in Parliament, resulting in the April 27 events.

“He often claims to be defending the Constitution, but it cannot be defended by violating it. There is no presidential system in Macedonia, the country is a parliamentary democracy. The President is obliged to sign the Agreement with Greece, which the Parliament endorsed on two occasions. The referendum is the highest democratic means in every democracy. Many generations have been lost, 27 years have gone by, and people will now have a say on this. Abstaining from voting is shying away from responsibility. On top of this, he is not saying this here, but from across the ocean,” said Dimitrov. According to him, only those who vote take part in the decision for the country’s future.

“You cannot sit at home and affect the decision. If there is only one vote ‘no’ and against the EU and NATO accession, we will bow to the decision. However, only the ones who vote can influence this decision. If a large majority of citizens says ‘yes’, even if the required turnout is not reached, we will take this into account, but the issue will go back to the Parliament. Therefore, not taking part in such a big decision is shying away from responsibility,” added Dimitrov.

He noted that everyone in Macedonia wants to join EU and NATO without solving the name issue, but one cannot say ‘I favor EU and NATO’ without elaborating how.

Dimitrov: Parliament tasked with constitutional amendments (MIA)

The constitutional amendments are not written nor negotiated. They are formulated in Parliament by a two-third majority, through public debate, discussions in committees, in line with the Rules of Procedures,” said Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov on Monday. FM Dimitrov elaborated the four constitutional amendments in question, resulting from the agreement with Greece.

“The first refers to the geographic qualifier North added to the name Macedonia. The second focuses on the inviolability of borders and lack of territorial pretensions from both countries. In the third, the care for members of the Macedonian minority in neighboring countries will be enlarged to the care for the rights of the entire diaspora across the globe. And finally, in the preamble, nothing will be changed regarding the state-legal narrative, beginning with the 1903 Ilinden Uprising, via ASNOM in 1944 and the 1991 independence referendum, but will individually list the ASNOM’s constitutive decisions. The wording is neither there, nor it has been negotiated, because this is a task for the Parliament,” Dimitrov told reporters at a press conference related to the name agreement.

Asked about the possibility of securing a two-third majority for the constitutional amendments, the FM said this depended on the citizens.

“Citizens have the key. We have been in the NATO waiting room since 2008 and the country has been an EU candidate since 2005. This is the door for this key. Six days from now we should decide, not as parties, government, opposition, but all together as people – the Macedonian people and parts of other people living with us – whether we will use this key or not. The more people say ‘yes’, the more stability it brings, the country’s statehood will be sealed, making the political process in the Parliament easier,” said Dimitrov. He added that the authorities are working on securing a two-third majority for the constitutional amendments and completion of the process by the end of December. Clarifying the identity concept in Article 7 of the name deal, Dimitrov said term ‘Macedonian’ refers to a different historical context and cultural heritage.

“When a Greek in Thessaloniki and Athens says ‘we are Macedonians too’, they refer to another concept. This is elaborated in Article 7. When we say ‘I am Macedonian’, we refer to our state-legal and historic narrative. This is a narrative resulting from a historic process. The key years in ours are 1903, 1944 and 1991, but of course, this is a process that had begun many years before. No one can challenge our right of self-determination or self-identification in the 21. century,” stressed Dimitrov.

He said there are no ‘Northmacedonian’ adjectives in the agreement, but only ‘Macedonian’.

“The distinction between our and their Macedonia is the geographic qualifier North. This geographic qualifier cannot change who we are. This is stated in Article 7. The text will be detailed further, but it is a fact that both countries are maturing together,” added Dimitrov.

He said the referendum is not a legal aspect noted in the agreement, but a political pledge and promise, both by SDSM in its election programme, but also by VMRO-DPMNE back in 2005.

“The turnout is not mentioned in VMRO-DPMNE’s 2016 election programme. It only says that ‘citizens will be asked if there is an agreement, and if the majority says ‘yes’, we will confirm the agreement.’ They have urged for a referendum since 2005 and we have come to this day. It is time to unite around this issue,” underlined Dimitrov.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

Imagine the Balkans Without Balkanization (Bloomberg)

EU membership is the prize meant to persuade Serbia and Kosovo to set aside resentments left by war. It’s finally possible.

Almost two decades after the last war ended in the western Balkans, there’s a chance that the word “balkanization” soon will no longer apply to the region. Finally, all the countries formed by the breakup of Yugoslavia stand a realistic chance of joining the European Union. But for them to unlock the opportunity and find lasting peace, a few festering conflicts need to be resolved, the one between Serbia and Kosovo the most intractable among them.

In August, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his Kosovar counterpart Hashim Thaci appeared together at a news conference in Austria — something they’d never done before — to talk of a possible compromise between the former parent state and the breakaway region. This was a hopeful moment, but everyone invested in the Balkans, and that’s every major nation in Europe plus the U.S., China and the Middle Eastern petrostates, will need a lot more patience before the hope translates into tangible results.

The EU is arguably the world’s most effective peace machine, with its tendency to delete borders and settle disputes without the use of force. So far, only two countries of the former Yugoslavia, Slovenia and Croatia, have joined the bloc. The other five, if one counts Kosovo, the last to declare independence and still unrecognized by five EU members, have been held back. They’re plagued by economic backwardness and corruption and by the kind of conflicts the EU doesn’t want among its member states.

In February, the European Commission adopted a document to give the western Balkan countries a “credible perspective” of joining the EU, naming 2025 as the target date. This was a momentous decision; after taking in these countries, the EU couldn’t expand much further without moving into the former Soviet Union.

The prospect prompted the government of Macedonia to try to settle its long-standing quarrel with Greece, which claims the former Yugoslav country’s name for its northern region. The deal, which renames the country Northern Macedonia, is up for a referendum on Sept. 30.

Serbia, a front-runner for EU membership, has an even tougher problem before it. The EU requires a “comprehensive, legally binding normalization agreement” with Kosovo as a condition of joining. Kosovo, too, cannot move forward without such a deal.

Normalization talks have been going on since 2011, and progress has been painfully slow. So Federica Mogherini, the EU’s top foreign policy official, encouraged the two countries’ leaders to search for a political compromise. The obstacles were formidable. Vucic recently praised former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, who died in 2006 while on trial for war crimes, as a “great leader.” He and Thaci, a former commander of Kosovar guerrilla forces that fought Milosevic, have to suppress mutual antipathy just to talk to each other. Memories of the Kosovo-Serbia war, which ended in 1999, are still strong.

Mogherini’s tenure, and that of the current European Commission, ends next year. She’d like to go out with a bang. Besides, uncertainty about the next Commission and its stance on EU expansion adds a sense of urgency to the talks. So when Vucic and Thaci appeared together to discuss a possible land swap to resolve the old conflict, it looked briefly as though things might, miraculously, work out soon. That impression was probably premature.

When I asked experts in Serbia and Kosovo where the process stands today, they laughed. Whatever the sides are discussing, it’s not public.

Moving the Barriers

The idea being kicked around in the media, academic and political circles is a land swap: Kosovo’s mainly Serb-populated land north of the river Ibar for Serbia’s majority-Albanian Presevo valley. It’s a concept that rings ominously in some parts of Europe.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has said that redrawing borders “could rip open too many old wounds within the population.” Chancellor Angela Merkel, for her part, has focused on the inviolability of borders in the Western Balkans.

More specifically, the arguments against moving the borders — laid out concisely in a recent Washington Post op-ed by Judy Dempsey of Carnegie Europe — include the threat of a minority exodus from the swapped territories and the bad example a retrenchment along ethnic lines would set for Serb and Croatian populations and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as for Albanians in Macedonia.

The counter-arguments I heard from Kosovars were persuasive to me. The Serbs and Kosovars who remained on the “wrong” side of the border after the war, when hundreds of thousands fled, and after Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence in 2008, aren’t likely to budge after a normalization deal. “Most Serbs in Kosovo live south of the Ibar, and they’ve had no illusions since 1999 — they’ve settled among Albanians,” Pristina consultant and policy analyst Agon Maliqi told me.

As for Macedonia’s Albanians and Bosnia’s Serbs and Croats, they will only secede with their land and try to join their ethnic mother states if the latter are willing to take them. “Serbia among other actors should provide guarantees for the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina” as part of a Kosovo resolution deal, Bekim Collaku, Thaci’s chief of staff, told me. If Serbia gains EU membership as a result of such a deal, he said, “I can’t imagine an EU member state joining or occupying part of another country.”

Croatia and Albania can’t afford to play along with secessionists because they’re North Atlantic Treaty Organization members.

The back and forth about the theoretical consequences of a vaguely described land swap is, however, largely irrelevant today because of the negotiating parties’ vastly different underlying assumptions.

Courting the World

Kosovars, both inside and outside government, feel the ultimate resolution is up to bigger nations that intervened to end the war of 1998-1999. “In global terms, Serbia and Kosovo are small,” said Robert Muharremi, an international law professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology Kosovo and a frequent government adviser. “The game is played by the great powers, to use an obsolete term. None of them will allow a Kosovo-Serbia deal to upset the balance. This requires them to be involved and to have the final word.”

This explains why Thaci and his allies appear to be pushing harder than Vucic for a border correction. For them, parading the scenario before the U.S., the EU and large European nations is a means to an end.

“After all, Kosovo isn’t necessarily seeking a border correction,” Collaku told me. “We seek a way to break the deadlock and get the recognition from Serbia, which immediately will unlock Kosovo’s recognition by five EU member states. This would open the way for Kosovo’s membership in the EU, NATO and perhaps even in the United Nations. It’s a message for the big countries: If they have the power to make Serbia recognize Kosovo now or in the near future, then we’re happy to wait rather than undergo these different and difficult scenarios.”

Most people in Kosovo see recognition as the ultimate result of talks with Serbia; it might help persuade Serbia’s ally, Russia, to stop blocking Kosovo’s UN membership, and Spain, the most recalcitrant of the EU members, to drop its objections to Kosovo independence as a beacon for Catalan separatists. These popular expectations allow Thaci to push ahead despite strong domestic opposition. Once there’s a deal that achieves the ultimate goal, Collaku said, there will be a way to explain it to the people.

Meanwhile, to an overwhelming majority of Serbs, rejecting Kosovo’s independence is more important than joining the EU, and a land swap isn’t going to change this.

“No Serbian government is going to recognize Kosovo independence,” Srdjan Majstorovic, chairman of the governing board at the European Policy Centre in Belgrade, told me. Majstorovic, who served as a top European integration official in the Serbian government, doesn’t share the Kosovars’ belief that outside powers will speak the final word. “No one will parachute themselves to the western Balkans to resolve our problems,” he said.

Serbia is looking for a softer scenario for Kosovo autonomy. For example, Majstorovic says, an arrangement similar to the one between the two Germanys during the Cold War might work: West Germany and its allies didn’t oppose East Germany’s UN membership but didn’t recognize it, either. Familiar with how the EU operates, Majstorovic thinks “the smart EU money” should be on a typical European solution, involving economic cooperation, friendly rhetoric and “a positive democratic narrative” rather than “setting up artificial boundaries” that would cease to matter within the EU anyway.

In other words, Serbia can live with a fudge that would both recognize Kosovo’s separateness and avoid a final break. No matter how much Vucic wants EU accession, he doesn’t want it at any price. That’s why he has recently pulled back from the talks, refusing to meet with Thaci on Sept. 7, and that’s why he’s never linked any discussion of borders with the matter of recognizing Kosovo.

“What I don’t understand about the negotiations,” said Muharremi, the Pristina law professor, “is whether the border correction means Serbia will recognize Kosovo. And if not, what’s the point?”

Not the Only Way

The discussion of the Serbia-Kosovo talks has focused on the land swap idea thanks to the Thaci team’s tactical insistence that no other scenarios are on the table. That may be true for now, but in reality, other scenarios exist, and they’re known in Pristina as well as in Belgrade.

Muharremi recently published a paper listing the options. Apart from the “two Germanys” solution, they include variations on the British-Irish arrangement and Italy’s handling of German-speaking South Tyrol. In these options, the Serb-populated northern municipalities of Kosovo and Albanian-populated Presevo would enjoy considerable autonomy and at the same time bind Serbia and Kosovo together in a more peaceful relationship.

All these options should be on the table in case it turns out that Serbia is unwilling to grant Kosovo full recognition. There’s no need to rush the negotiations, either. Even if Mogherini and the current European Commission can’t chalk up a major diplomatic success before they leave office, there’s still time to work through the options. The next commission, or the one after it, will be making the EU membership decisions, anyway, and a deal hastily put together by predecessors won’t necessarily help.

It also makes sense to offer a menu of options to the foreign powers that have a say in the matter. Under what circumstances would Russia be likely to drop its opposition to Kosovo’s UN membership? What guarantees does Germany require to accept that a Serbia-Kosovo deal won’t set off another Balkan crisis? Will Spain recognize Kosovo if Serbia does or will it resent such an attempt to force its hand? What’s the U.S. interest given its military alliance with the neighbors of both Serbia and Kosovo? None of these questions has an answer now.

Finally, no informed debate about a possible deal is taking place domestically in Serbia or in Kosovo. It’s not a good idea to present both nations with a fait accompli, hoping they’ll accept it out of desperation to join the EU. A decade after Kosovo declared independence, it’s difficult to be patient. And yet a patient, structured negotiating process is exactly what’s needed now. If EU membership is the happy ending for the countries scarred by the Balkan wars, no diplomatic blitzkrieg will bring it about. Most likely, it’ll take an EU-style compromise that works for everyone, no matter how much everyone may dislike it.

The agreed deal, he said, will also include industrial cooperation and technology transfer.

The Serbian Army recently displayed the MIG jets it received earlier as a donation from Russia. However, the Defence Ministry has had to spend millions on their modernization.

In April, Russia’s Tass agency reported that Serbia and Russia had agreed on Serbia’s procurement of the new weapons, including Mi-17 transport helicopters, T-72 tanks, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles and other military hardware.

Serbia has also done military deals with Belarus this year. On January 29, 2017 Defence Minister Zoran Djordjevic, visiting Belarus, said Belarus was willing to donate eight MIG 29 jets as well as Russian-designed missile systems. Serbian media reported in April that the aircraft are expected to arrive this year.

Serbian military experts believe the military upgrade forms part of attempts by the government to show a largely pro-Russian population that Serbia is deepening its ties with its old ally, Moscow.

The aim of the October NATO exercise meanwhile matches the official purpose of the controversial Russian Humanitarian Centre in the southern Serbian city of Nis.

The centre insists that it exists only to provide “emergency humanitarian responses, [help] prevent natural disasters and [address] technological accidents and the elimination of their consequences”.

Some Western governments have voiced deep unhappiness about its work, however, fearing that it has other purposes, such as espionage, linked to Russia’s foreign policy in the Balkans.

Serbia proclaimed a doctrine of military neutrality in December 2007 and the current government has announced no plans to change the policy.

However, Serbia remains linked to NATO through the alliance’s Partnership for Peace programme, PfP.

In March 2015, Serbia concluded an Individual Partnership Action Plan with NATO, considered the highest level of cooperation with NATO for a non-member country.

Opinion about NATO has divided in Serbia since the alliance launched air strikes against the former Yugoslavia during a 78-day bombing campaign in 1999, forcing Serbia to withdraw from Kosovo. Kosovo was then placed under international administration and declared independence in 2008. Many Serbs remain bitter about the loss of the province, regarding it as the “cradle” of Serbian nationhood.

According to public opinion surveys, a large majority of Serbs are opposed to the country joining NATO.