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Belgrade Media Report 26 October 2018

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United Nations Office in Belgrade

Daily Media Highlights

Friday 26 October 2018
LOCAL PRESS

• Stefanovic sends letter to every Interpol member (TV Pink/Tanjug/B92)
• Brnabic to MP questions: Beyer’s statement not official German policy (Tanjug/RTS)
• Dacic: We are not giving our dignity and Kosovo for EU carrot (RTV/Tanjug/Novosti)
• Djuric: Haradinaj has no courage to say Kosovo is not independent (Tanjug)
• Drecun: Archives of international community contain answers about crimes (RTS/Tanjug)

REGIONAL PRESS

Bosnia & Herzegovina
• Izetbegovic: SDA decided to let things cool down and then start participating in series of negotiations on possible coalitions (FTV)
• SBB B&H, SDP B&H sign agreement on coordinated participation in formation of authorities at all levels without SDA (Hayat)
• Migrant crisis in B&H sparks reactions (Hayat)
• EUD to B&H: There is no new visa regime for B&H citizens (TV1)
• B&H citizens might be required to wait for approvals in order to enter EU as of 2021 (RTRS)
Croatia
• Grabar-Kitarovic considers convening of Croatian National Security Council’s session regarding migrant crisis (HRT)
• EU must react in B&H, Dayton is compromised (Vecernji list)
fYROM
• MPs reached important decision, concur PM Zaev and NATO’s Stoltenberg (MIA)
• Macedonia to send 12 servicemen in Afghanistan for NATO-led mission (MIA)
• Russia hasn’t interfered in Macedonia’s internal affairs (MIA)
Albania
• NATO Enlargement and EU compactness, key factor for Balkans security (ADN)

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

• Name Dispute: Athens takes a breather (New Europe)

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LOCAL PRESS

 

Stefanovic sends letter to every Interpol member (TV Pink/Tanjug/B92)

 

There are no reasons – besides the political ones – for Interpol to accept Kosovo as its member, Serbian Interior Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic has said. Stefanovic added that Serbia is working on submitting political, legal, and police arguments as to why Kosovo should not become a member of Interpol. Stefanovic told TV Pink on Thursday in Belgrade that he personally has sent letters to all members of Interpol explaining the reasons against the membership of Kosovo in Interpol, but also that it should be taken into consideration that there are those who will never change their position for personal interests and those who are willing to reconsider. He explained that the member of Interpol can become only that country that is a member of the UN, or holds the role of an UN observer, and that Kosovo is neither one, nor the other. In addition to these legal reasons against Kosovo’s membership in Interpol, there are political reasons, Stefanovic continued, first of all that Resolution 1244 says that Kosovo is part of Serbia, the second, that we have clear indications that this membership would be used to raise Interpol notices against everyone who they think is inappropriate, that is quite clear. The third set of reasons, the police ones, suggests that Kosovo and Metohija still is, to this day, in accordance to Resolution 1244, in contact with Interpol with which it can work, through UNMIK, the minister said. “They do not want to go through UNMIK, they want membership as proof of their so-called statehood, and that is all this is about,” Stefanovic said.

 

Brnabic to MP questions: Beyer’s statement not official German policy (Tanjug/RTS)

 

Commenting on a statement by German MP Peter Beyer, who on Wednesday said Serbia could not join the EU without recognizing Kosovo, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said Thursday it had come from one Bundestag member and did not represent Germany’s official policy. “He can have his opinion and he is free to express it. We can discuss his opinion, and we did so in an open manner yesterday. We disagree with that opinion. I presented to him the position of the Serbian government that, when negotiations about compromise are underway, it is not good to have any red lines,” Brnabic said in the Serbian parliament in response to a question from opposition MP Djordje Vukadinovic. He also emphasized that Bayer’s key message was that Serbia should recognize Kosovo independence or the country would not be able to join the EU, but the government minimalized this view. “These are too direct and too harsh formulations and this matter is too important to be quiet loudly about it,” Vukadinovic said.

Head of Dveri Movement caucus Bosko Obradovic asked Brnabic if the Serbian government would sign a legally binding agreement with Kosovo that would get it a chair in the UN. He also

asked who authorized Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to lead “secret negotiations” about Kosovo but also Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja, municipalities in Southern Serbia where Albanian population lived.  Brnabic said that there were no secret negotiations about Kosovo and what Vucic did was not secret but open, brave and transparent. “Vucic, with the full support of Serbian government, is trying to find a solution for a decades old problem in order to secure a long-term peace and stability in Kosovo, primarily for the citizens of Serbian nationality,” she said.

 

Dacic: We are not giving our dignity and Kosovo for EU carrot (RTV/Tanjug/Novosti)

 

Serbia will not trample on its Constitution and dignity by recognizing the false state of Kosovo for the sake of some EU carrot, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic told Novosti. Commenting the statement of German MP Peter Beyer from Merkel’s CDU party, Dacic said that what he had stated should certainly be understood seriously since he is an official of Chancellor Merkels’s party. “Yet, if things were really such, then why the dialogue in Brussels, why this exhausting and for us very frustrating process if one knows the outcome in advance,” wondered Dacic.

“Signals from individual key Western states, primarily the US, which had in the past firmly stood on the positions that independence of Kosovo is a done matter for them, are giving us the right to fight, respecting the reality on the ground, but also the foundations of international law that were brutally breached in 2008 with the unilateral action of the authorities in Pristina,” said Dacic.

 

Djuric: Haradinaj has no courage to say Kosovo is not independent (Tanjug)

 

Ramush Haradinaj does not have the courage to tell his compatriots and voters that the self-proclaimed Kosovo is not independent. And Haradinaj dares not tell them that Kosovo is getting farther away from independence every day, says the Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric. “The self-proclaimed Kosovo, even 10 years after the political leaders of the Albanian secessionist movement, without a referendum, unlawfully declared its secession from Serbia, is not a step closer to membership in the United Nations and other relevant international organizations,” Djuric said on Thursday. He added that the self-proclaimed Kosovo – as Haradinaj will know very well – unless there has been a lasting solution, will remain a wandering provisorium whose political representatives will snoop in the halls of international organizations in vain, scratch at the door, and go from one threshold to another praying for recognition – with it all coming to nothing. “Haradinaj knows that from Serbia and much depends so depends on in Kosovo and Metohija, and that the process of recognizing the unilaterally declared independence is reversible, because many countries are regretting today being thoughtless or support the legalization of violence under pressure, and attempting to break up a sovereign state. Haradinaj knows that time is not on his side, or his dreams of an independent Kosovo, but he persists in self-deception and lies, because he feels that the idea for which, he says, he was ready to give life, is suffering a defeat,” Djuric emphasized.  He noted that the Serbian people want friendly relations with the Albanian people, and that Serbia does not want its Albanian citizens to be hostages of a failed idea and bankrupt politics, represented in Haradinaj, Thaci, Veseli and Kurti, and therefore extends a hand for reconciliation and compromise, the Office said in a press release. “They are all prisoners of the past, unlike Aleksandar Vucic who is a politician of the future, and a man who builds politics, not based on hatred, but on a vision of a richer and more stable region in which all citizens and peoples will have equal chances for progress and prosperity,” said Djuric.

 

Drecun: Archives of international community contain answers about crimes (RTS/Tanjug)

 

Serbian parliament’s Working Group for collecting facts and evidence for crimes committed against the Serbs and other nationalities in Kosovo gathered several thousands of documents, Beta reported. The Chairperson of the Working group Milovan Drecun told reporters following the meeting with representatives of foreign embassies and international organizations that some diplomats failed to appear because they are afraid, though the solving of those crimes was their obligation and achievement of the civilization. “We have compiled a precise database of the crimes committed from 1998 to 2000 with many valid documents which should be enough for starting the processes and finding out who are those responsible,” Drecun said. He said he told his guests the Group had documents proving that the international staff in Kosovo was in possession of evidence which could help to solve some crimes but they were not made available to either public or those in charge of resolving the crimes. Drecun said German MP Peter Beyer’s call to Serbia to recognize Kosovo was destabilizing and shutting the door to any discussions and agreements, as well as paving the way for a Greater Albania.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Izetbegovic: SDA decided to let things cool down and then start participating in series of negotiations on possible coalitions (FTV)

 

SDA leader and current Bosniak member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic asked to comment the recently held General Elections in B&H and say if SDA is satisfied with its success said: “Yes we are satisfied. SDA is the winner at the state level, at the entity level, at the level of all cantons with Bosniak majority, except in Tuzla, where we lost by some 300 votes, I think”, said Izetbegovic. Asked if he held any talks on possible coalitions after the elections, the SDA leader confirmed that his party held no official talks on possible coalitions so far, while there were some casual conversations on this topic. “We let the situation cool down a bit, as the emotions are still overheated and there are some ‘hot heads’ that bring a bad vibe to all this. SDA decided to let things cool down and then start participating in a series of negotiations on possible coalitions”, underlined Izetbegovic. He added that he supports forming of a large coalition, made of winning parties, as they are the parties chosen by the will of the people. Left-wing parties in the Federation of B&H started their coalition negotiations, emphasizing that they plan to form majority without SDA. Asked why these parties refuse to cooperate with SDA, Izetbegovic said: “As I said, SDA is a winning party and that is no coincidence. It was chosen by the people, by that part of citizens that defended this country. It is a party that represents the interests of Bosniaks, to the largest extent, and defends their identity, culture, religion and language… To try and remove that party, to ‘break the spine of the political life in B&H’ in such way, is a very risky move. They can try and do that, they might do that, but the fact is that such system will not last long.” Media speculations claim that HDZ B&H called the left-wing parties to negotiations about a coalition in Herzegovina-Neretva Canton (HNC), which points to the fact that HDZ B&H wants to avoid a coalition with SDA in this canton. Izetbegovic said that SNSD probably has interest in removing SDA from authorities at all levels of authority and HDZ B&H supports that idea, as it believes that SDA was its only obstacle in achieving some goals in the past. HDZ B&H leader Dragan Covic accused SDA of openly lobbying for DF leader Zeljko Komsic in his run for the post of a Croat member of the B&H Presidency. Izetbegovic confirmed that he saw Covic on Thursday and he did not repeat that statement in their conversation. Asked if there is a political party with which SDA would never cooperate, Izetbegovic said that there is no such party. “SDA would gladly support forming of a large coalition, formed of as many parties as it can get, whose ideas go in the same direction, because the reform path will not be an easy one”, said Izetbegovic. When asked to comment the election of SNSD leader Milorad Dodik to the position of a new Serb member of the B&H Presidency, Izetbegovic said that Dodik is a pragmatic politician, with which SDA often has some issues because he does not think before he speaks and has brought Bosniaks and Croats in Republika Srpska (RS) to the position of the third-class citizens. “I believe that he will act more responsibly when he becomes part of the state level authority as he will see that no one will benefit from deadlock in B&H. People in the RS live in worse conditions than the people in the Federation of B&H. Dodik can no longer carry that situation, or worsen it by creating some blockades. I believe that he will work in achieving as much as he can and not create a crisis in B&H,” concluded Izetbegovic.

 

SBB B&H, SDP B&H sign agreement on coordinated participation in formation of authorities at all levels without SDA (Hayat)

 

SBB B&H leader Fahrudin Radoncic and SDP B&H leader Nermin Niksic signed on Thursday the agreement on coordinated participation in the process of post-election formation of authorities at all levels, without SDA. The meeting lasted for nearly two hours, and Radoncic and Niksic agreed on coordinated participation in the process of authority formation. The two party leaders expressed their dedication to the further progress of the country in the process of the European integration, as well as NATO integration, stabilization of the political situation in B&H and stopping of negative tendencies.

 

Migrant crisis in B&H sparks reactions (Hayat)

 

The migrant crisis in B&H sparked reactions; Deputy B&H Minister of Foreign Affairs Josip Brkic stated that migrant crisis represents a bigger European problem and B&H must not stay alone in its resolving. He said that it is well-known that migrants do not want to stay in B&H but they want to continue their journey towards the EU countries, noting that the state and all other levels of authority in B&H will do their best to help migrants. B&H Minister of Foreign Affairs Crnadak met with Head of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Mission in B&H and sub-regional Coordinator for the Western Balkans Peter Van der Auweraert on Thursday. They discussed the migrant situation in B&H. B&H Minister of Security Dragan Mektic also commented on the migrant crisis, reminding that there were problems in the past period regarding assistance by certain police agencies, since their members were engaged during the general elections in B&H. He added that capacities of reception centers for migrants represent joint problem of Sarajevo and Bihac amid large influx of migrants, announcing that capacities will be certainly enlarged in the upcoming days. Mektic stressed that gathering of migrants at railway and bus stations in Sarajevo will not be allowed and police will be putting these migrants in the Usivak center in Hadzici near Sarajevo. Director of B&H Center for Security Studies Denis Hadzovic commented that B&H authorities have lost focus from the migrant crisis due to the general elections in B&H, which is a reason why the Operational HQ for Issue of Migrations in B&H was not convening its sessions. He said that the only solution now that cold weather and winter days come is to ensure humane conditions for accommodation of migrants, restrict their movement and protect borders. SDA leader and current Bosniak member of the B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic said that the migrant crisis in B&H is at its boiling point and authorities at state level have not provided a viable solution of this problem. He pointed out that migrants want to go to Croatia and further to the EU countries, but for now they must be accommodated in reception centers in B&H. Izetbegovic confirmed that the migrant crisis was the main topic of Thursday’s session of the B&H Presidency, even though this issue does not fall under jurisdiction of the Presidency. “We are following the situation, closely observing all activities and we urge the B&H Council of Ministers and lower levels of authorities to do more in resolving of this issue”, said Izetbegovic. He emphasized that all migrants must be provided with humane living conditions and offered help in everything they need, but those that only cause problems must be handled accordingly. Chancellor of Austria Sebastian Kurz has stated that the Western Balkan countries helped the EU in preventing migrants from entering the EU member states, but that borders have to be secured and all countries have to fight smuggling of migrants. He concluded that governments have to be the ones to allow migrants to enter the EU and migrant smugglers certainly should not decide on that.

 

EUD to B&H: There is no new visa regime for B&H citizens (TV1)

 

The EU Delegation (EUD) to B&H stated on Thursday that there is no new visa regime for B&H citizens. However, B&H citizens will have to use an online application if they want to travel to the EU countries. The EUD to B&H denied media claims about the introduction of visas for B&H citizens, adding that this has to do with online registration, i.e. with the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) in order to strengthen security controls of persons who are traveling to the EU without visa.

 

B&H citizens might be required to wait for approvals in order to enter EU as of 2021 (RTRS)

 

RTRS carried that, after nearly eight years of visa-free regime with all EU members, B&H citizens might be required to wait for approvals to enter the EU – as of 2021. According to RTRS, an explanation of the EU’s decision reads that terrorism and migrant crisis are the main reason why the EU – as reporter went on to say – “will abolish the visa-free regime” for B&H and 60 other countries in the world as of 2021. Two years ago, the EU launched a project ‘European Travel Information and Authorization System’ (ETIAS) that stipulates submitting of online application for obtaining approval to enter the Schengen area. According to ETIAS, the citizens will have to complete an online application before travelling to the EU and they will be required to submit their personal data as well as data on their health condition, criminal past, employment history, and mention previous EU countries they travelled to. President of the European Commission (EC) Jean-Claude Juncker explained that the EU wants to be secure at its borders in the context of the safety risk that the increased number of passengers across the world carries – especially in terms of issues of the migrant crisis and terrorism. According to Juncker, the EU simply needs to know who is crossing its borders. Spokesperson for the EU Delegation (EUD) to B&H Jamila Milovic-Halilovic specified that ETIAS approval for travelling is not the same as a visa application. Milovic-Halilovic was quoted as saying: “Citizens of third countries exempted from the obligation of owning visa will still be able to travel without visas. However, prior to travelling to the Schengen area, they will first have to obtain an approval for that travel.” B&H Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement noting that it sent requests to EU High Representative Federica Mogherini on several occasions asking that B&H is removed from the list of countries in question. According to the Ministry, “technical barriers to free movement of citizens of the Western Balkans could have a discouraging effect on overall integration processes”.

 

Grabar-Kitarovic considers convening of Croatian National Security Council’s session regarding migrant crisis (HRT)

 

Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic announced on Thursday that a session of the Croatian National Security Council which, among other things, would be dedicated to the migrant crisis could be held soon. “Do not think that if a session of the National Security Council is held that there is a state of emergency in the country. But, now there are many topics that we should discuss, from the migrant issues – although police have that under control – to the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the situation in the neighborhood,” Grabar-Kitarovic underlined.

 

EU must react in B&H, Dayton is compromised (Vecernji list)

 

All 11 member of the European Parliament (EP) from Croatia sent senior EU officials, namely EP President Antonio Tajani, President of European Council Donald Tusk, EC President Jean-Claude Juncker and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini a letter of Thursday, expressing strong concern about outvoting of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) in the last general elections in B&H, warning that the Dayton agreement is being undermined that way. The letter stresses they are deeply concerned with the outcome to the elections in B&H, “which resulted in the Croat member of the Presidency of B&H getting elected mostly by Bosniaks, whilst vast majority of Croats voted for the other candidate”. The Croatian MEP further noted it is their firm belief this does not contribute to stability and sustainability of B&H as state of three equal, constituent peoples and others, as stipulated by the Dayton agreement. The MEPs went on to say that the country’s architecture is not perfect in every detail, which must be fixed, which leads the MEP to say, “we believe the EU should have a role and help this process”. They also warned that the forthcoming process of formation of authorities in B&H could get stuck in crisis because of inexistence of provisions of the Law on Elections.

 

MPs reached important decision, concur PM Zaev and NATO’s Stoltenberg (MIA)

 

Prime Minister Zoran Zaev held Thursday a phone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who expressed support and congratulated on the success achieved in implementing the Prespa Agreement. Stoltenberg welcomed the courageous, grand and statesmanlike decision of the MPs, telling PM Zaev that NATO was pleased Macedonia was moving ahead, the government said in a press release. The NATO chief also congratulated Zaev on the successful accession talks held on Oct. 18-19 in Brussels saying NATO remained focused on completing the country’s integration into the Alliance. Thanking for the congratulations, Zaev concurred that the MPs had overcome partisan differences for the benefit of the country, which resulted in reaching an important decision. Speaking with the NATO Secretary General, Zaev said that the parliament decision was a strong incentive for Macedonia to keep going with full speed ahead and that the encouragement, support and friendship from NATO allies would contribute to increasing the majority backing the implementation of the Prespa Agreement.

It is expected, he said, the process to be completed in January after which Macedonia can assume its rightfully deserved place in NATO. In the phone conversation, PM Zaev said that reforms were being pursued, including reforms of the security sector, noting that the institutions in the country had the capacity to execute all the tasks necessary for a full-fledged membership to NATO.

 

Macedonia to send 12 servicemen in Afghanistan for NATO-led mission (MIA)

 

12 Macedonian servicemen in November will be deployed in Afghanistan as part of the Resolute Support mission in a six-month term. Macedonia will be also part of the Althea mission in B&H with one staff officer, who will also serve for six months. The parliament’s Defense and Security Committee will forward the two motions on sending Macedonian servicemen in peacekeeping missions for further consideration in parliament. The 12 members of the Macedonian Army (ARM) will take part in the NATO-led Train, Advise and Assist Command-West. Macedonia will cover their salaries, whereas the allies will cover for transportation, accommodation and food, Defense Minister Radmila Sekerinska told the Defense and Security Committee on Thursday. The committee’s chairman Hari Lokvenec asked the Minister to explain what Macedonia’s NATO membership would mean in terms of missions, i.e. whether Macedonia would start to send more troops. “This has been tackled as part of the accession talks with NATO. One of the political message that is being sent involves not only our years-long engagement in NATO-led missions, but also the fact that decisions for sending troops are overwhelmingly supported in Parliament. The decision for us to be part of the mission is reached in Parliament, but it’s a fact that our army on behalf of interoperability and NATO membership will have to send more troops in NATO-led missions” stated Sekerinska. Furthermore, Montenegro has decided to send a serviceman in KFOR and Macedonia followed suit. “We think it benefits the building of security” she added.

 

Russia hasn’t interfered in Macedonia’s internal affairs (MIA)

 

Regardless of the accusations by American officials blaming Russia, Moscow did not interfere in the internal affairs of Macedonia, it was Washington who did, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said. According to her, Moscow is still being accused of meddling in Macedonia’s internal affairs. She called Matthew Palmer’s remarks in Skopje about Russia’s involvement ‘ridiculous’. We, she pointed out, would like to note that it was the US, not Russia, that on October 19 with blackmail and intimidation of MPs pressed ahead in Macedonia’s parliament the decision to initiate constitutional changes. The US Ambassador in Skopje was present in the parliament’s building and managed all these processes. It is not Russia that is against the Prespa Agreement, it is the Macedonian voters who expressed their will in the September 30 referendum, according to Zakharova. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Palmer has criticized Russia for allegedly meddling in Macedonia’s processes and urged the ruling majority in parliament to green light the constitutional changes calling this opportunity ‘unique’.

 

NATO Enlargement and EU compactness, key factor for Balkans security (ADN)

 

President of the Republic, Ilir Meta, visited on Thursday the European Center ‘George Marshall’ in Garmish, Germany, as an honorary guest to talk about security issues and Euro-Atlantic integration of the Balkans. During his speech, the Head of the State stressed that NATO’s enlargement and the compactness of the European Union (EU)) towards the Western Balkans region remains a key factor to the stability and security of the region. “Since 1993, Albania has enjoyed an excellent cooperation with “George Marshall” Center. More than eight hundred soldiers and civilians have been trained in the unique programs of this Center, which is a valuable contribution to the capacity building of our Armed Forces and the Diplomatic Corps. US involvement and American-German partnership are key factor to maintaining these interests in this part of the world,” said Meta. He added that more than 6500 members of the Albanian Armed Forces and Civilians have participated in international l peacekeeping operations since 1996. “We have pledged to continue contributing to numerous operations in our region and beyond, in NATO and EU. Since 1996, more than 6500 members of the Albanian Armed Forces and Civilians have participated in international peacekeeping operations. Albania has joined all initiatives in the fight against terrorism and joined the immediate reaction of the World Coalition against Violent Extremism,” declared Meta. President also touched the topic of Kosovo issue, where he said that the country is recognized and accepted by the most UN member countries.

“Empowered by the values and principles of the European Union, it facilitates normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, thus far producing a package of 24 agreements approved by both countries. It would be beyond any reasonable logic that now this dialogue is producing a new deal that changes borders across ethnic lines, going against a process that has lasted for nearly two decades and against the very concept and spirit of the European Union. This is a matter of everyday life of people and their history,” said the Head of the State.

 

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

 

Name Dispute: Athens takes a breather (New Europe, by Alec Mally, 26 October 2018)

 

Work in Skopje moves forward

The political processes in both Greece and Macedonia/FYROM are still adjusting to the surprise victory by Prime Minister Zoran Zaev in the October 19 vote in Skopje where his supporters and allies delivered 80 votes or the required 2/3 majority in parliament needed for the constitutional revision process to proceed, as required under June’s Prespes Agreement that aims to settle the Name Dispute between the two countries. In Greece the adjustment took the shape of a day or two of loud discussions over the future of the coalition government, then a sharp pivot to another foreign policy domain, tense relations with Turkey over the delimitation of Greece’s maritime boundaries, possibly including the Aegean Sea.

 

Work progresses in Skopje and VMRO-DPMNE initiates a purge

Following the latest poll, Zaev’s government has 15 days to finalise and submit the draft amendments to the constitution to parliament. A vote will be required but a 2/3 majority is not needed in this instance. Zaev has indicated his intention to accelerate this process. After the amendments are passed, there is a period allocated for public discussion and debate. Sometime before the end of the year, a third vote will be taken, which will require a 2/3 majority for approval, providing the opposition with one last chance to make its point and block the deal.

Debate continues in Skopje on whether the actual number needed for a 2/3 (enhanced) majority vote is 81, as previously believed or simply 80 as asserted by the Zaev government and the Speaker of Parliament, Talat Xhaferi, at the time of the vote on October 19. Eagle-eyed observers in Skopje even reported the change in the Wikipedia entry by an unknown editor regarding the 2/3 majority requirement, lowering the number from the previous 81 to 80.

Opposition VMRO-DPMNE leader Hristijan Mickoski took rapid action against the seven MPs from his party who voted to support the constitutional changes and announced their expulsion from the party shortly after the October 19 vote. Mickoski said “they will now have to live with this shame,” while also accusing the Zaev’s government of exerting pressure and blackmail on their MPs. The eight opposition (seven were crossover VMRO-DPMNE) MPs whose votes were essential on October 19 issued a statement with four demands in order to deliver further support to Zaev, the most interesting of which was for the formation of a national reconciliation commission. That was quickly established in the days after the vote; it is unclear whether the MPs are demanding full amnesties for previous violations including the infamous April 2017 parliamentary rampage which injured over 100 people or whether the commission’s approach will satisfy them. The media in Skopje is reporting that what has been done so far does not appear to go far enough to satisfy their demands.

 

Developments in Athens

The Prespes Agreement remains on track in Skopje following the October 19 vote, but now the Greek political timeline largely reverted to what analysts had envisioned before the failed September 30 referendum. That meant the agreement would arrive in Athens for ratification sometime in early 2019, and the long-predicted rupture between SYRIZA and the Independent Greeks (ANEL) party over the deal with Macedonia/FYROM would trigger a political meltdown and new elections later in the spring, most likely May. Some analysts now see the possibility that an early completion of work on the constitutional amendments in Skopje means an earlier-than-planned arrival of the treaty for ratification in Greece, meaning elections could well have to be called some months before the May 2019 European elections. Main opposition party New Democracy, with a widening lead in recent opinion polls, continues to press for early action and is actively reviewing the few scenarios that exist to trigger elections before the Prespes Agreement arrives in Athens, most requiring cooperation with ANEL and all other opposition parties in a no-confidence vote. In this context, the shift of attention in Athens in recent days towards Greece’s dispute with Turkey over delimitation of its territorial waters is important. While it shifts attention off of the Name Dispute where the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is widely seen as making unnecessary concessions in return for no real gain in terms of foreign policy, taking steps that headline the dispute with Turkey offers Tsipras the chance to take a tougher line against the country’s main historical antagonist and thus build support for a few more months in power.

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