With votes still being counted and the possibility of court challenges, it has yet to become clear who will lead the next government.

By Valerie Hopkins and Arijeta Lajka
BIRN
Pristina

Kosovo’s future is sitting in a warehouse in Fushe Kosove. That’s where the 734,000 ballots cast in the June 8 election are being counted, recounted, audited and stored under the watchful eyes of international and domestic observers.

In the counting center, little dramas are being played out each day as Kosovo comes closer to tabulating the final results, and some observers are creating teapot tempests: they stormed out on Tuesday over allegations that postal ballots of the United Serb List had been falsified, and the counting stopped. One hour later they were back.

The election itself saw a massive improvement on the widespread problems – including instances of brazen voter fraud – that marred Kosovo’s first general elections since independence, in 2010. Nevertheless, there are signs that the coming weeks will be turbulent for this young democracy.

The composition of the new government—and potentially its first since independence without Hashim Thaci as Prime Minister—is uncertain, thanks to varying interpretations of the constitution and the possibility that the final results could change the predicted composition of parliament.

The Central Elections Commission has found inconsistencies in vote tallies in about 18 per cent of polling stations and has ordered recounts there. This is a marked improvement over 2010, when inconsistencies were reported in about 40 per cent of polling stations.

Relatively small changes in vote tallies could have major implications for the formation of the next government. This is because two parties, Nisma and the New Kosovo Alliance, AKR, are hovering near the 5-per-cent threshold needed to enter parliament.

In the preliminary results, AKR hovered just below the threshold, while Nisma was just over it. The inclusion or exclusion of either or both parties in the next parliament could prove to be the deciding factor in whether Prime Minister Hashim Thaci or opposition leader Ramush Haradinaj leads the next government – or if a new government can be formed at all.

Around midnight on election day, Thaci’s Democratic Party of Kosovo, PDK, declared victory on 30.7 per cent of the votes according to the preliminary results. The Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, followed with 25.7 per cent, Vetevendosje (Self-Determination) came third with 13.5 per cent, the AAK fourth with 9.6 per cent and newcomer, Nisma, fifth, with 5.2 per cent. The New Kosovo Alliance, AKR, the PDK’s coalition partner in the last government, fell just below the 5-per-cent mark.

However, two days after the elections, in a sudden twist, the LDK, AAK and Nisma announced they would create a coalition to form the next government, with AAK leader Haradinaj becoming the Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, the AKR, headed by construction tycoon Behgjet Pacolli, is calling for a partial recount, suggesting it could push his party above the 5-per-cent threshold. Before ballots were recounted in Vushtrri, the AKR initially received no votes in three polling stations, party member Myzejene Selmani said, while a recount in these polling stations actually produced 57 votes.

“Imagine what the voting results would be if a recount was done throughout Kosovo, if these were just the results in Vushtrri,” she said.

Aside from the results of the count, the constitution of the next government hinges on interpretations of the constitution, which contains two clauses concerning the process of forming a government. Both mandate the President to invite the “party or coalition that has won a majority in the assembly” to form a government.

The wording appears unambiguous, but the PDK maintains that because it won most votes, and because of the precedent that the party with the most votes normally forms a coalition government, it deserves the chance to form the government this time, too.

With around 36 seats in parliament, the PDK is well short of the 61 needed to constitute a working majority in the 120-seat assembly.

The LDK, AAK, Nisma potentially control 66 seats if Vetevendosje MPs - officially still in opposition - back the coalition. Otherwise, the coalition would rely heavily on minority parties and non-coalition parties.

Additionally, there is a small chance that the final count of postal ballots could push Nisma back under the 5-per-cent threshold, which would leave the opposition coalition with only 59 votes, which would make it reliant on the minority parties – the 10 seats reserved for Serbs and 10 for non-Serbs.

The PDK maintains that the opposition coalition is “invalid” because the parties were not in coalition before the general elections. But some experts dispute the significance of this point. “Every government so far was a post-election coalition,” Krenar Gashi, director of the Institute for Development Policy, said.

Gjylieta Mushkolaj, a former judge on the Constitutional Court, said the constitution does not hinder parties from forming coalitions after elections.

“The constitution is very clear on this. It’s being discussed a lot, but this discussion is mostly fuelled by people who are not ready to accept a new reality,” she told Prishtina Insight.

“The LDK, AAK, and NISMA deal is an important development leading towards the consolidation of Kosovar democracy; it enriches our political lives,” she added.

In the midst of these political tensions, Elvis Pista, MP from PDK was killed in Orahovac last Sunday. While evidence of a motive, or a culprit, is lacking, the killing occurred when polls showed he was about to win a seat in parliament.

There have also been reports that political uncertainty could prompt a fresh round of elections, which would clearly be in the interests of the PDK and AKR. But analysts dismiss the possibility as remote. “If you have a constitutional crisis, it does not follow that you need new elections,” analyst Leon Malazogu said.

A third option is for the PDK to set up a government, which the opposition would vote for, before calling a no-confidence vote after 100 days. “We are a young democracy – improvise til we get it right,” Gashi noted.

No new government is likely to have firm footing, Malazogu said. Based on the preliminary results, all the possible coalition options will likely rely need the support of either Vetevendosje, an opposition party known for its uncompromising politicis, and the Serbian List, over which the Serbian government of Aleksandar Vucic will have a great deal of influence.

“Whatever the results, the government will be weak,” Gashi said. “It will depend on either Vetevendosje, or on Belgrade.”