LOCAL PRESS

 

Ban appoints Miculescu UN representative to Serbia (Tanjug)

Romanian Ambassador Simona-Mirela Miculescu has been appointed Representative of UN Secretary General and Director of the UN Office in Belgrade. Miculescu was appointed by UNSG Ban Ki-moon, it was published on the Twitter account of the UN Spokesperson. The Romanian ambassador has been serving as Permanent Representative of Romania to the UN since 2008. During her 24 years of diplomatic career, she served as the Spokesperson of the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Senior Media Advisor to the Minister, Director of the Press Department within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Press Secretary of the Romanian Embassy in Washington D.C. Between 2000 and 2004, she served as Foreign Policy Advisor to the President of Romania. Miculescu holds a PhD in Literature and has been a professor of International Public Relations at two Romanian universities. She was the first woman in Romania’s diplomatic history to be granted the rank of an ambassador. Since her appointment in New York, Ambassador Miculescu held the positions of Vice-President of the UNICEF Executive Board, Vice-President of the Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and Vice-President of the UN General Assembly for its 68^th Session.

 

Vucic: McAllister has a realistic attitude towards Serbia (Tanjug)

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic thanked European Parliament Rapporteur for Serbia David McAllister for his realistic and good attitude towards Serbia as an EU candidate-state. Serbia is dedicated to its main foreign policy goal – EU membership, Vucic repeated. McAllister added Serbia was progressing well on its EU course and stressed that the EU highly appreciated the Serbian commitment to the main foreign policy goal – EU membership. He also greeted progress in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. The meeting was also attended by Serbian Minister in charge of EU integrations Jadranka Joksimovic, and the Head of the EU delegation to Serbia Michael Davenport.

 

Nikolic calls for condemnation of Albanian terrorist act (Novosti)

Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic called for condemnation of the recent terrorist act by Albanians in Kumanovo, northern Macedonia, at a conference held in Budva on Monday.

Nikolic qualified it as a vicious act of extremists who use terror to achieve their political goals, adding that some countries regrettably dismiss such acts as “incidents”. “We are astounded and deeply concerned over the latest brutal act by Albanian terrorists in Kumanovo. What has happened there is unacceptable. Also alarming is the fact that this crime is sometimes labeled simply as ‘urban guerilla’. You can easily imagine the barrage of accusations, followed by threats and actions, against some other perpetrators, even for acts of much smaller scale,” he said. An objective and expert investigation is needed to shed light on what really took place and what was done to punish the perpetrators of the crime in Kumanovo, Nikolic pointed out. In light of these disturbing events, countries in the region should give their support to everything that leads to the stabilization of the situation in Macedonia, said the Serbian President.

 

Dacic: EU perspective enabled progress in Belgrade-Pristina dialogue (Politika)

Serbia has made a big step forward on its EU path over the past year and it can expect the opening of the first chapters by end of the year, it was conveyed at the 15^th Economy Summit in Belgrade. “Serbia will continue the reforms, which are the prerequisite of the economic development and an integral part of getting to the strategic goal – association with the EU,” Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic stated at the opening. It has gathered the government officials of Serbia and the Republika Srpska, as well as the representatives of the international financial institutions, economists and business people. The state is committed to carrying on with the reforms, and the priority is the building of the rule of law, as the foundation for the arrival of the foreign investments and development of the small and middle enterprises, Dacic underlined. According to him, in the past one year some 600 million Euros has been invested in the Serbian economy, thus enabling the opening of 7,500 working places. There are 62 projects in preparation, whose realization would attain the level of investments of almost one billion euro. The government’s priority is to create the conditions for the economic growth, employment, fiscal consolidation, restructuring of the public companies, rationalization and better efficiency of the state administration, as well as the improved social protection, education and health protection. Dacic has emphasized that in foreign policy sector the emphasis is on the strengthening of the international position of Serbia, especially with a view to its chairing over the OSCE. Serbia believes that disputes can only be solved through dialog, thus helping in the establishing of the stable and economically connected region. The opening of the accession talks with the EU represents a historic chance, and it is also our key strategic goal, Dacic said, adding that the government is resolute in its striving to complete the negotiations by 2018. In that case, Serbia could become a member of the EU in 2020 already. Dacic has emphasized that European perspective is a key factor, which has enabled the progress in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. “Out of 15 provisions of the Brussels agreement, Serbia has met all of its obligations, while six more remain. We want to discuss the forming of the Union of Serb Municipalities as soon as possible, because this is an existential issue for us,” said Dacic. The Foreign Minister has especially highlighted the significance of regional cooperation, which entails the infrastructural network among the West Balkan countries. Serbia greets the announcement of the European Commission that by 2020 one billion euro from the IPA funds will be earmarked for those purposes, and the intention to attract the private capital with the assistance of the international financial institutions, in order to finance similar projects worth 10 billion euro, concluded Dacic.

 

Gojkovic thanked Belarus for principled stand (Radio Serbia/Tanjug)

Serbian parliament speaker Maja Gojkovic thanked President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko for the support his country gives to Serbia’s territorial sovereignty and integrity. She also thanked Belarus for not recognizing the independence of Kosovo and Metohija, unilaterally declared by Albanians in Serbia’s southern province in February 2008, and for the support of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. Gojkovic and Lukashenko agreed Tuesday it is important to boost economic cooperation and increase the level of trade between the two countries, the Serbian parliament issued in a statement. While in Minsk, Gojkovic also signed a memorandum of cooperation with Chairman of the Council of the Republic Mikhail Myasnikovich and the Chairman of the House of Representatives Vladimir Andreichenko. The officials opined that Gojkovic’s visit, first at the level of parliament speakers in 15 years, will open a new stage of development in the relations between the two parliaments and countries.

 

Miscevic: Work on both normalization and Chapters 23, 24 (TV N1)

Serbia is deeply aware that normalization of relations with Pristina is the key political issue and important moment that will determine when the first chapters in the negotiations with the EU will open, the Head of the Serbian negotiating team with the EU Tanja Miscevic said. “The normalization and the two big chapters for the rule of law, 23 and 24, have the same force. We are working in parallel on this so we could really have a credible basis for opening the first chapters by the end of the year,” Miscevic told TV N1. Asked about the resumption of the dialogue with Pristina on 23 June, Miscevic said that the timeframe for opening the first chapters is important and this is why it is considered that every political dialogue at the highest level that is organized in Brussels is another plus on Serbia’s EU path. Asked whether it is realistic when Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic says that he hopes the negotiations would be completed by 2018 and that Serbia could become an EU member by 2020, Miscevic notes that this was the basic model and strategy from the very beginning. “We envisaged in our documents that 2018 is the year when we will be completely ready to assume the obligation for membership, but we never defined precisely because we didn’t want to guess when the state members will be able to admit us,” said Miscevic. She added that the first following year when it will be possible for Serbia to become a member after the completion of the negotiations is the year 2020.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

DF ministers won’t participate in FB&H government session: We are the opposition! (Patria)

“Ministers from the Democratic Front (DF) will not participate in the session of the Federation government,” confirmed Reuf Bajrovic, minister of energy, mining and industry, to Patria.

After the FB&H government last week adopted the controversial regulation that deals with the method of appointment to state companies, the DF left the coalition with the SDA and HDZ, considering that the disputed regulation voted for by ministers of these two parties would further destroy the public companies in the Federation. “We will not participate in the session of the government. The DF is the opposition,” said Bajrovic. Zeljko Komsic, the DF President, earlier called on PM Fadil Novalic to submit a request to dismiss the four DF ministers in the FB&H government. If they want to continue working, the SDA and HDZ B&H must as soon as possible find a new coalition partner. The HDZ President Dragan Covic earlier announced that he would like to see the SBB in government as a partner, and would hold a discussion with Fahrudin Radoncic, the party’s president, on Wednesday. On the other hand, Bakir Izetbegovic, president of the SDA, said that the DF is a coalition partner, and they would not seek another.

 

Izetbegovic to Komsic: If you don’t attend the FB&H Government session you will endanger the reform path of B&H! (Dnevni avaz)

President of the SDA, Bakir Izetbegovic, held a special press conference at which he outlined his concerns regarding the new crisis that escalated yesterday in the government of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H), and which threatens B&H’s European path. “I just had a meeting with ambassadors of the EU and the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy, and I’m afraid that the B&H is at a crossroads when it comes to its reform path. On Thursday, a signing ceremony of the reform agenda is scheduled, with the EU Commissioner for Enlargement Johannes Hahn, before the signing the agenda should be adopted by the entity and state parliaments. But that is at stake today. Although the DF promised to support the course of reform and laws, unfortunately the DF ministers will not come to the session of the FB&H Government when the reform laws are on the agenda. I call on them in this way to come to the session and fulfill the promise,” said Izetbegovic. He added that this is not just a call for the DF, but also to all parliamentary parties in B&H, to support the reform process in order not to “created another depressing moment”. “It should be noted that the split in the coalition will happen because of the position, appointments, or as people say because of the seats. The SDA has requested zero positions, we are ready for a moratorium,” said Izetbegovic. He pointed out that he has contacted the leader of DF Zeljko Komsic and that he has told him that they can meet during the week. “I’m afraid that it is a matter of hours and we do not have days. I invite you once again to fulfill your promise. He promised to support the reforms, and now, he will not come to the session when they are on the agenda,” said the president of the SDA. He reminded that the coalition parties had an agreement to appoint an interim administration only in the companies that are having heavy loses, and that it was agreed that the others can wait. He also pointed out, the concerns of the international community over the whole issue. “They have changed their priorities for us, they are constantly coming, ready to help,” said Izetbegovic.

 

Radoncic: I’m not interested in power with the state-mafia (Nezavisne)

The power with the radicals and the state mafia does not interest me, and the only political issue that I will address on Wednesday talks with Dragan Covic is the excellent organization of the Pope’s visit, Fahrudin Radoncic, President of the SBB, the strongest opposition party in the Federation, told Nezavisne novine, answering the question of whether there is a possibility that his party would enter into power after the majority in the Federation ceased to exist. “I will meet with Mr. Covic, as it is my obligation, as the President of the Organizing Committee, to congratulate him on the excellent organization of the visit. And that's the only subject about which I will talk to him,” said Radoncic. Commenting the remark, that after the DF’s departure from the Parliament the crisis or the executive power has been deepened, and that it is completely logical to expect the participation of the SBB, Radoncic repeated that the issue does not interest him. When asked about the position of the SDA on SBB’s potential entry in to the government, the SDA responded that it is not up to SDA. “The SDA’s position is the reform agenda and the creation of a political action, which will be acceptable to all. And I believe that many parties in the parliament are going to be more responsible than those that have joined the government,” says Ramic. The DF, as we learned, before withdrawing its ministers from the Government intends to file a lawsuit against those responsible for the adoption of the Regulation on the authorization of the Company Law (which disempowers ministers and authorizes the government to appoint and dismiss administration). Unofficially, Prime Minister Fadil Novalic has officially signed a decree, which was the signal for the DF to move on with the lawsuits before withdrawing the ministers from the government, which they apparently intend to do by the end of the week. No one from the HDZ wanted to comment on the developments of the situation. Meanwhile, the delegates at the FB&H House of Peoples, at the beginning of yesterday’s special session demanded that the FB&H Prime Minister comments on the “chaotic situation” in this entity, but the proposal did not receive the necessary support, so no comment were made.

 

Papal visit a farce that Sarajevo is multiethnic, more Chinese living there than Serbs and Croats together (Srna)

The RS President Milorad Dodik said that he has nothing against the message sent by the Pope Francis during his recent visit to B&H, but it was the farce that Sarajevo is the multi-ethnic city. “There are more Chinese living in Sarajevo today than the Serbs and the Croats together. There were not a thousand Christians from Sarajevo present at the stadium among the 70,000 people. They all came from Croatia or some other places, but the Sarajevo story was spread around the globe,” said Dodik. Addressing to the students at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade Dodik has stated that even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, during her earlier visit to Sarajevo, stated that “multi culture doesn’t live there anymore”. He has stressed that he has nothing against the Papal Visit and the good cooperation and peace message that the Pope sent, but has something against imagination created by his arrival.

 

B&H charges 3 for planning attack in Sweden (Srna)

The B&H Prosecution has raised indictments against three persons in a case known as “Benelux”. Three B&H citizens Adis Ramic and Amar Sljivo, and Swedish citizen Osman Abdel Salam - are accused of smuggling an explosive device meant to be used in a terrorist attack in Sweden. The three suspects were arrested on March 13 and remain detained, reported Srna. The prosecution said that in this case it achieved significant international cooperation with investigative and law enforcement authorities in the Netherlands and in Sweden. The prosecution said the investigation had shown that the first-accused Ramic and others acted as an organized group to procure and manufacture an explosive device with great destructive power, which could be remotely activated, and was meant to be used in the town of Malmo, Sweden - an attack that could have killed or injured a number of persons. According to the charges, Ramic struck a deal with one person currently in jail in the Netherlands, and another in Sweden, to buy the device, manufactured by Sljivo in B&H. Abdel Salem attempted to smuggle the device out of B&H in an Audi with Swedish plates, but was arrested near a border crossing. The bomb was found hidden in the vehicle.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

US, Germany Put Conditions on Serbia Support (BIRN, by Igor Jovanovic, 8 June 2015)

The US and Germany want Serbia to cut its energy dependence on Russia, follow EU foreign policy, and allow Kosovo to join the United Nations, sources have claimed

Following Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic’s recent visit to Washington, a source close to his ruling Progressive Party told BIRN that the US has set several conditions for Belgrade to fulfil in order to ensure investments in Serbia and Washington’s support for its EU integration.

According to the source, American officials were primarily interested in the ways Serbia could reduce its energy dependence on Russia. The source said US companies could invest in the exploitation of copper and gold near the town of Bor in eastern Serbia, and might be interested in deposits of lithium in western Serbia. Vucic’s government was also asked to follow European Union policy on relations with Russia, the source also said, as well as not to support Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik, who has announced a possible referendum on secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Michael Kirby, the US ambassador to Belgrade, told Serbian public broadcaster RTS on Sunday that Serbia enjoyed Washington's political support in its EU integration process, but would have to "do its homework". Kirby said that Serbia has to make progress in the rule of law, fighting corruption and addressing certain issues with Kosovo. Serbian newspaper Blic also reported on June 4 that during Vucic’s visit to Washington, US officials also urged him to “clearly define Serbia’s path towards NATO” but also to participate in the coalition fighting against Islamist militancy actively rather than just verbally. According to the Blic, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is due to visit Belgrade in early July, will bring two “clear demands” for Serbia - to allow Kosovo to have United Nations membership and to agree to constitutional changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina which would reduce the jurisdiction of the Serb-led Republika Srpska entity. According to Blic’s report on Monday, the possibility that Kosovo could become an UN member does not imply that Serbia recognises its independence. But move is seen as necessary in order for Kosovo to become a member of the OSCE, the Council of Europe, and perhaps ultimately the European Union. Belgrade analyst Dusan Janjic said that the German requirements are "not pressure but reminder for Serbia to fulfil its obligations". "By signing the Brussels agreement [to normalise relations] with Kosovo, Serbia committed itself that it would not hinder Kosovo's membership of regional and the international organizations... Enabling membership of the UN for Kosovo does not necessarily mean that Belgrade recognises its independence," Janjic told BIRN. Upcoming talks between Serbian and Kosovo officials in late June could be the point at which Brussels decides that Belgrade has made important progress. "If there is significant progress, the EU could decide on the opening of the first chapters in the negotiations with Serbia," Janjic said. The European Parliament's rapporteur for Serbia, David McAllister, said that the talks on June 23 will be decisive for the opening of the negotiating chapters with Serbia this year. "In order to open the first chapter during this year both sides will have to demonstrate progress... and the next round of dialogue in Brussels will be crucial," McAllister told reporters in Belgrade on Monday.

 

Greece and FYROM set for talks to 'resolve differences' (neoskosmos.com, 9 June 2015)

'Neighbours have no other choice but to be good friends' says Deputy PM Fatmir Besimi

The Greek Foreign Ministry announced this week that its officials will travel to Skopje in the next few days to discuss confidence-building measures with the government in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias revealed the news on Thursday, informing journalists that MFA political director Petros Mavroidis would be making the trip after meeting with FYROM's Deputy Prime Minister Fatmir Besimi in Athens. Mr Kotzias said he may reveal more about the discussions when he visits Skopje later this month as part of a tour of the Western Balkans. "I would be getting ahead of myself if I mentioned measures, because we have to agree on them first," said the Greek diplomat. "As I always say, when one is negotiating, it isn't good to talk about it." Mr Kotzias praised Deputy Prime Minister Besimi, a member of FYROM's Albanian community, as a "young, talented politician". "We always tell our European partners that realistic and reasonable voices like Mr Besimi's must be listened to with care in Europe," added Mr Kotzias. Mr Besimi said that he sees an opportunity for Greece and FYROM to resolve their differences, and welcomed Mr Kotzias' decision to visit Skopje. "Neighbours have no other choice but to be good friends," said the visiting envoy.

 

Macedonia at the Crossroads (The New York Times, by Ivan Krastev, 9 June 2015)

SOFIA, Bulgaria — “Have you ever been stuck in an elevator?” a Macedonian politician asked me recently. We were in Skopje, his country’s capital, where huge public protests have raged over the last year, including demonstrators occupying the government square and, in the Parliament, a nearly yearlong boycott by the political opposition. “Can you imagine being stuck like this for 20 years? This is what happened to us.” He had a point. Macedonia, a Balkan country of some two million people, roughly 30 percent of them ethnic Albanian, managed to steer clear of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, but that doesn’t mean it has been tranquil. From Macedonia’s very first moment as an independent country, in 1991, Greece has refused, for historical reasons, to recognize its name, which Macedonia shares with a region of Greece. Greece has vetoed its membership in NATO and obstructed its attempts to join the European Union. Brussels and Washington were appalled, but helpless. In 2001, an armed ethnic conflict in the Albanian-dominated west brought the country to the brink of civil war. Macedonia survived the crisis, but political and ethnic tensions remained. Trapped by the standoff over its very name, threatened by the specter of ethnic conflict and demoralized by a weak economy with one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe, Macedonia was shunted aside to Europe’s waiting room. Unsurprisingly, 300,000 people have left the country in the last five years. And while Macedonia feigned reforms and Brussels faked integration, the Macedonian regime mutated into a Balkan-style “managed democracy.” Getting a job in the government was preconditioned on voting for the ruling party, and the most popular TV station, which was critical of the ruling party, was closed. The governing party, with the imposing name Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity, has used elections merely for the purpose of spotlighting how the opposition could not be trusted, then engineering the vote to ensure its re-election. Thrilled by its self-image as a victim of foreign conspiracies, the Macedonian government adopted aggressive nationalistic rhetoric toward its neighbors. While the government was busy silencing dissent over the last decade, public discontent was boiling. The moment of truth came earlier this year, when the emergent leader of the opposition, Zoran Zaev, placed a bet that a public scandal might undermine the regime. In February he released excerpts from what he claimed were 670,000 illegally taped phone conversations of opposition politicians, journalists and religious figures. The leaked recordings exposed corruption, abuse of power and arrogance at the highest level, and appeared to show vote rigging and, more sinister, a murder cover-up. The public was furious and poured into the streets calling for wholesale reform in the nation’s politics, including a change in leadership. Not even the resignation of several key ministers, including the head of intelligence, could tamp down the outrage. Ever since, the country has been awash in anti-government and pro-government rallies. In May, an armed Albanian group and Macedonian security forces clashed near the town of Kumanovo, killing 22 people and resurfacing fear of ethnic violence. But the current crisis, curiously, is anything but a return to 2001. Anger against the elites has unified Macedonians and Albanians, and the demonstrations are one of the few places where Europe’s hope for a multiethnic Macedonia is a reality. On June 2, Johannes Hahn, the European Union’s enlargement commissioner, negotiated an agreement to hold early elections by April 2016; meanwhile the Parliament is to adopt changes in electoral laws to level the playing field between the ruling party and the opposition. The agreement is a powerful demonstration that while the European Union may have lost its luster, it remains by far the key external actor in the Balkans. But Macedonia’s road back to liberal democracy is not going to be easy. The protesters in Skopje brought a change in the public mood, and they forced the world to focus on Macedonia, but they could not bring institutional change themselves. The scandals have certainly hurt the governing center-right party and its Albanian coalition partner, but opinion polls indicate that if elections were held tomorrow, the governing party would still win them handily. Political polarization and the glaring absence of independent media — not simply “pro-opposition” media — make it easier for the government to survive the current crisis. Mr. Zaev demonstrated political courage by revealing the misdeeds of the government, but he will need even more courage to change his own party, the Social Democrats, which is profoundly mistrusted, not only by government’s supporters but also by many of the protesters, for being too much a part of the system. Those pushing for change in the streets must resist the naïve notion that the European Union and the United States will be their reliable partners in their demand for revolutionary change. The European Union is boxed in, not only by fear that the crisis will become an ethnic conflict and the diverging views of the member states, but also by a counternarrative, being pushed by Russia, that the protests are being stage-managed by foreigners. In Moscow’s interpretation, the protests are an instrument of Western powers’ strategy to remove governments unfavorable to them. Skopje’s neighbors are also nervous. They do not like the current leadership much, but they fear instability. At the same time, they hope that positive change is in the offing: Bulgaria in particular hopes that political changes will make it possible to sign a bilateral treaty between the two countries, blocked for a long time by the current government in Skopje. In short, for all the worries over the current crisis in Skopje, there is reason for optimism. What everyone should hope for is not a revolution, but a reasonable compromise — one that will be acceptable not only to political leaders but also to the citizens who mistrust these same leaders. The elevator should move again, and best if it moves in the direction of Brussels. Ivan Krastev is a political scientist, the chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.

 

Does Hahn get the Macedonia crisis? (EUobserver, by Nikola Dimitrov and Erwan Fouere, 8 June 2015)

BRUSSELS and THE HAGUE

Last week’s statement by commissioner Johannes Hahn on Macedonia’s election track record comes at the worst possible moment for efforts to resolve the political crisis.

At an event hosted by the National Council, a think tank in Washington, on 4 June, Hahn said the last elections in Macedonia (in 2014), as with other votes, had been monitored by the OSCE/ODIHR and “in general the report on them was positive”. It’s not the first time he’s made controversial statements. On 15 February, he questioned claims on violations of press freedom in Serbia. In both cases, his office was quick to issue corrective statements. But the damage was done and Hahn gives the impression of a commissioner out of touch with reality. In the case of Macedonia's electoral record, did he read the OSCE/ODIHR report?  The commissioner, of all people, should know that issues such as media environment, party political financing, ability of all parties to campaign free from intimidation, and use of state funds by the ruling party, are all part of the assessment on democratic standards. Ever since prime minister Nikola Gruevski came to power, in 2006, Macedonia’s elections have been problematic. The same errors have been repeated, or made worse, time and again. In the early vote in 2008, election day itself was marred by violence, with one fatality and several people injured. In the 2013 local elections, according to the OSCE/ODIHR report, "partisan media coverage and a blurring of state and party activities did not provide a level playing field for candidates". The report also says "allegations of voter intimidation persisted throughout the elections and the OSCE/ODIHR EOM observed several cases of apparent misuse of state resources for campaign purposes”. “This raised concerns about voter ability to cast their vote free of fear and retribution". Intimidation of public sector workers has also been a regular concern. It’s of special relevance in a country which has the most bloated public sector in the entire Balkan region. To give just one example, the OSCE/ODIHR report of the 2009 presidential and local elections speaks of public sector employees being "particularly vulnerable to threats that their jobs would be in danger if they did not support the governing party". Given his comments in Washington, Hahn should, urgently, read the OSCE/ODIHR report on the early elections in 2014. It does say the elections were "effectively administered" and that election day "went smoothly”. But it adds, in the words of Geert Ahrens, the head of the mission: "The run-up failed to meet important OSCE commitments, including the separation of state and party, on ensuring a level playing field, on the neutrality of the media, on the accuracy of the voters list and on the possibility of gaining redress through an effective complaints system". If one also reads the wire-tapped conversations leaked by the Macedonian opposition, the OSCE/ODIHR, to put it mildly, errs on the side of caution.

The wire-taps depict a fully captured state.

They speak of voters being threatened with losing their jobs or bribed with welfare payments; of school directors instructed to put pressure on teachers; of civil servants ordered to provide lists of friends and relatives who will vote for the ruling party; and of companies being fined or threatened with arbitrary inspections if their staff vote wrong the way.

On one tape, Gruevski’s interior minister, who later resigned, is heard boasting of how his party’s electoral headquarters and call centre are located inside the interior ministry, with no restraint on their partisan work on election day.

EU deal

The EU-brokered deal, on 2 June, says early elections should be held in 10 months following reform, such as vetting of voter lists.

But the evidence indicates that Macedonia needs to do much more.

It needs to decontaminate its entire political system. This will require much more time.

As Hahn prepares to host the next round of talks between Gruevksi and the opposition leader, in Brussels on 10 June, he should understand that quick fixes won’t resolve the crisis.

Opting for an interim government with some ministerial posts held by the opposition but with Gruevksi and his party in control amounts to rearranging deck chairs on a sinking ship.

A growing number of Macedonian people want real democracy, freedom, rule of law, accountability, and basic decency. If anything, the crisis is an historic opportunity to break Macedonia’s vicious circle, for the EU to redeem the enlargement process, and to demonstrate that its values have meaning. It goes much deeper than a power struggle between two political blocs. Hahn needs to understand the only lasting solution is one which addresses root causes.

Trust

The interim government should also include people from outside the two blocs and shouldn’t include any government officials tainted by the wire-tap scandal. On the contrary, it should provide full accountability by enabling an independent and internationally monitored investigation of the wire-tap allegations. It should be given sufficient time to ensure institutions are able to organise proper elections, free from past irregularities. It should give space to civil society and to students so that broader Macedonian society has trust in the transition process. The EU should also join forces with the OSCE and with the Council of Europe to help Macedonia end its nightmare and to get ready for EU and Nato integration.

Nikola Dimitrov is a fellow of the Hague Institute for Global Justice and a former Macedonian ambassador to the US and the Netherlands. Erwan Fouere is a fellow of the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels and a former EU special representative to Macedonia

 

Putin's Prowl: Bear in the Balkans Sniffing at Macedonia (the-american-interest.com, 8 June 2015)

Could a scandal in Macedonia push the Balkan state towards Russia? An alleged whistleblower recently dropped “information bombs” on the country’s political scene that show near-total government corruption. Hundreds of thousands of leaked recordings paint a picture of bribery, purges of members of the political opposition from government jobs, the buying and selling of the judiciary, and so on. Foreign Affairs lays out the whole grimly unfolding story in this article, which we encourage you to read in full. Russia, for its part, is seizing the moment: Since the crisis began, Macedonia has been distancing itself further from the EU and the West—President Gjorge Ivanov’s travel to Moscow for Victory in Europe Day is one indication of this trend. This comes after Foreign Minister Nikola Poposki expressed reservations about EU’s sanctions against Russia last September. Russia is wooing Macedonia for strategic reasons, as well, since Moscow is attempting to build natural gas pipelines to Western Europe that bypass Ukrainian territory. […] However, there is little popular support in Macedonia for a reorientation toward Moscow. Unlike in Serbia, where many blame the 1999 U.S.-led NATO bombing campaign for the loss of Kosovo, the majority of ethnic Macedonians regard the West favorably, believing that the United States was instrumental in keeping the country together during the 2001 armed conflict with ethnic Albanians and seeing membership in the EU as the top foreign policy objective of the country. But for Gruevski, EU membership is a low priority. With his political and personal fortunes at stake, Russia’s friendship might prove irresistible to him as he frantically searches for ways to cling to power. This clash—between political and public wills—may pose a grave risk for the stability of the country. From Russia, it must sometimes appear as if the West’s position in the eastern Mediterranean is falling apart. Even given this weekend’s election news, Erdogan’s Turkey is a less and less likely leader for a NATO country, Greece is in the hands of a pro-Russia, anti-EU party, and a number of other countries in and around the Balkans seem to be drifting away from European bureaucratic democracy and toward something like Putinism. The counter to this would be an engaged western policy in the Balkans and elsewhere. But both the U.S. and the EU seem to be suffering from Balkan fatigue. It remains to be seen whether the Russian threat can accomplish what common sense and prudence failed to do: to energize Europeans and also Americans to work harder at the intractable and frustrating problems that the region contains.

 

Will Macedonia Scuttle Gazprom's New Mega Pipeline? (worldcrunch.com, by Yuri Barsukov, 8 June 2015)

SKOPJE — Macedonia’s prime minister announced last week that his country would participate in Gazprom’s "Turkish Stream" pipeline, which is meant to allow gas deliveries from Russia to Europe to bypass Ukraine, under one condition: that the European Union sign off on the project.

Opposition groups in Macedonia have been lobbying for Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski to resign. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has declared that the opposition protests are being organized by foreign forces, who are angry that the prime minister didn’t join the rest of Europe in instituting sanctions against Russia. In an interview with a local newspaper, Gruevski tried to distance himself from pro-Russian positions. When asked about people who came to his demonstration wearing T-shirts with Putin’s photo on them, he responded that there were 100,000 people at the demonstration, and perhaps three or four were showing off pro-Russian paraphernalia. The “Turkish Stream” is intended to go through the Black Sea to Turkey, and then through Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary before reaching one of Europe's largest gas hubs in Austria. The pipeline would be equipped to carry about 60 billion cubic meters per year (500 billion barrels), and would be able to replace the pipeline through Ukraine — which Gazprom says it will abandon in 2020. But the project is still in its very beginning stages, and Gazprom hasn’t signed a single necessary agreement, nor clarified where the funding would come from. Under the current plan, it would be impossible to avoid Macedonia, yet the project isn’t very attractive to the Balkan country of just 2.1 million people. Macedonia only uses 150 million cubic meters of gas per year, which it currently gets from Russia. But as Gruevski correctly noted, Russian gas is expensive (at more than $500 for 1,000 cubic meters, it is one of Europe’s most expensive gas sources). Macedonia is planning to access another pipeline that would give it access to cheaper Azerbaijani gas. As a result, this small country, whose opinion on the project no one has really bothered to investigate, might end up playing the same role as Bulgaria played in the planning of another Gazprom pipeline, South Stream. That is, completely blocking the project.

Merging pipelines

In fact, both Russian and European energy experts told Kommersant that it is unlikely any pipeline will be built beyond Turkey. In the most ambitious scenario, experts say Gazprom would limit the project to two lines through the Black Sea to Turkey, since the company already has contracts with European companies to work on those lines. Moreover, getting additional contracts will be difficult, given the current sanctions against working with Russian companies. Therefore, unless the political climate changes, there is slim chance that Gazprom will be able to sign a contract for the construction of a third line. Nonetheless, the goal of bypassing Ukraine by 2020 might still be feasible, by combining the shortened Turkish Stream with the "Eaststring" pipeline, which would send gas to the Balkans, and the Nord Stream, which would supply gas to Central Europe. Taken together, all of these pipelines would only have a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters per year, but that would likely be enough since European demand for Russian gas continues to drop. The bigger picture reminds us that in all of these possibilities Gazprom would have to find a way to work with Brussels, which ultimately has the broadest authority to control the delivery of Russian gas to the European Union.