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Four scenarios of joining the European Union (RTS)

What are the possible scenarios of receipt of the Western Balkans countries into the European Union? All at once, each for itself or everyone in line behind Turkey.

Young Researchers of the European Fund for the Balkans, mainly nationals of countries hoping to join the European Union, outline four scenarios for accession of the whole Balkans to the European Union.

From the promise of European leaders at the beginning of the 21st century that all countries according to standard procedure catch a train to Brussels, to standing in line with Turkey, to the eventual abandonment of the expansion or major Balkan burst by which all Balkan countries would join the EU.

"This means that we may have two types of countries in the region, one that may be members of the EU as Serbia and Montenegro, perhaps even Albania, and those who cannot or with great difficulties as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Kosovo as well," says Florian Bieber, a professor of European studies at the University of Graz.

The European Union is faced with the economic crisis and the strengthening of the Euro-sceptic parties in the elections for the European Parliament, those who advocate the abolition of euro or are great opponents of the immigration policy.

Therefore, Turkey’s unfavourable scenario is not excluded, which is waiting to join more than half of a century. In the better case it would be a temporary blockade.

"It would be of course very painful for reforms in the region, I do not say that this is the most realistic scenario, but we have to be aware that this danger exists," says Bieber.

There is enlargement fatigue but also and anger of waiting, especially when we see that the neighbour successfully got in.

"Then other countries will be disappointed because they are not the ones who joined the EU, then it could lead, I would not say, to conflict, but at least to the tensions in the region that would not be desirable," said Bieber.

Good regional cooperation could prevent such an outcome, and Brussels would be pleased to see something like that, believe researchers. If the former countrymen and neighbours today are caught in a harmony wheel, they will reach the goal faster than everyone decides to play its own game. The motive is strong.

If they all join they will be in the middle of the European Union. Those who entered will be on the periphery of the EU if someone falls behind.

 

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