LOCAL PRESS

Vucic receives letter from Chinese President (Tanjug)

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has received a letter from President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping in which the Chinese leader expressed gratitude for Vucic’s congratulations on the holding of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and Xi’s re-election as secretary-general of the party's Central Committee. “Sino-Serbian relations are in an excellent trend of development and communication between the two ruling parties thus has a significant and leading role in deepening the understanding and trust and encouraging bilateral cooperation in all areas,” Xi wrote in the letter. “China and Serbia share a long tradition of friendship, and the two states are important and reliable strategic partners. High-level visits have been exchanged at a more dynamic pace lately, political trust is growing and cultural exchange and cooperation is very active,” the Chinese president said, and added: “Serbia actively participates and has a leading role in building the Belt and Road project,m as well as in Cooperation 16+1, it has achieved rich results in mutually beneficial cooperation, and practical cooperation between the two sides brings concrete benefits to our nations.”

Vulin: Serbia should consider participation in civilian missions (FoNet/RTV)

Serbian Defense Minister Aeksandar Vulin has stated that Defense Ministry and Serbian Army members are presently participating in ten peacekeeping missions, under the command of the UN and the EU, but that it was time for Serbia to start considering participation in civilian missions next year. At a conference on the establishment of a system for the participation of civilian experts in multinational operations of the OSCE, EU and UN, Vulin said that the Serbian Defense Ministry has strong and profound experience in peacekeeping missions. He stressed that from the first to the last mission today, under UN or EU rule, Serbia confirms how much its army is respected and capable. Vulin pointed out that at this moment members of the Ministry and the Army are in 10 peace missions, six under the command of the UN and four under the command of the EU, and 341 members of the Army and the Ministry are in the area from Cyprus to the Central African Republic. The Ministry will send 700 members of the ministry and the Serbian Army to peace missions next year, the Minister announced.

Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Serbia Sam Fabrizi said that Serbia has become a significant EU partner in the security and defense sector and significantly contributes to a common security policy.

The gathering is organized by the Department for Operatic of the National Defense School of the Military Academy under the slogan “Think globally, act locally”. Presenting the guests, Serbian Defense Minister Aeksandar Vulin pointed out that they had come to the institution which made us very proud. “Today, you will talk about and discuss security challenges, the changed environment. It is good thing for us to admit that the world has changed, for the worse. The security challenges that we face are somehow bringing us together regardless of our size. Just like no man is an island, no country can think anymore that it is sufficiently strong, sufficiently organized, numerous, rich to independently deal with the security challenges that are everywhere around us” Vulin said and added that it was the matter of challenges that were most often asymmetrical and almost always unpredictable. He emphasized that when it came to contemporary challenges we were no longer capable of dealing with them using something that we had used to know and what we learned, and that we were definitely not capable of dealing with them alone. The minister expressed his satisfaction with the fact that a large number of lecturers from abroad participated at the gathering “because it means that we all understand that we are on the same side”.

The opening of the international event was attended by Chief of General Staff General Ljubisa Dikovic, State Secretary in the Defense Ministry Aleksandar Zivkovic and the Head of the Military Academy Major General Goran Zekovic.

The international scientific gathering is being organized for the purpose of projecting strategic trends and analyses of the influence of modern operational environment on the preparation and execution of operations, identification of key dimensions of the operational environment significant for the execution of operations at strategic, operational and tactical level.

Drecun: Last international chance for those who committed crimes to be held responsible (RTS)

The Chair of the Committee for Kosovo and Metohija Milovan Drecun has told the morning news of Radio and Television of Serbia(RTS) that the entry into force of the directive on defense lawyers and the damaged parties, the Secretariat of specialized chambers is commencing the final action after which it will be able to start trials. While the ICTY is finalizing work by the end of the year, conditions are simultaneously being created in The Hague to issue indictments for crimes committed in Kosovo and Metohija. The court for KLA crimes in The Hague called yesterday lawyers to register for representing indictees and victims in the upcoming processes before this court. Drecun says that the adopted directive defines the conditions that lawyers need to fulfill in order to be registered on the list of defense lawyers and damaged parties. The important thing is that the damaged parties will be able to seek compensation through their legal representatives, says Drecun. “I think that the process concerning the formation of the list of defense lawyers and damaged parties will be completed in two-three months at the most and one should then expect the first indictments. Everything depends on the readiness of the specialized prosecution to issue the first indictment,” says Drecun. “In my opinion, it will be the most important one, I think there will be a so-called large indictment, having in mind that it is in the focus of Dick Marty’s report based on which this process was commenced, the Drenica group, an organized criminal group with Hashim Thaci at the helm. I think that they will direct most of their attention to the Drenica group,” says Drecun.

“Therefore, I think we will have a difficult battle in the following period to prove the truth on how horrible were the crimes committed by the KLA, and an opportunity to process those who are responsible for that,” said Drecun. We didn’t want to be taken by surprise, but wanted to actively undertake everything in our power to collect evidence and to put at it the disposal of the specialized prosecution, he says. The working group has been formed, it includes representatives of all of our services of state institutions that had this data – we formed a united data base on committed crimes that the specialized prosecution doesn’t have, says Drecun. Apart from the description of the crimes, this data base also has possible perpetrators and witnesses, documentation. “The cooperation that has been established with the specialized prosecution is going on very well. We will face the prosecution with plenty of evidence,” says Drecun. He opines that the specialized prosecution will direct its attention, apart from issuing indictments against concrete perpetrators, on command responsibility. If the KLA leaders are not indicted, then the entire story is pointless, says Drecun, adding that this would then be a show for the international public. Drecun says that command responsibility needs to be established. “We, as the working group, have collected the complete structure of evidence that was seized during the time of the terrorist KLA that shows how it was organized,” says Drecun. “This is the last chance for those who committed crimes from the KLA ranks to be held responsible,” concluded Drecun.

Stefanovic appointed secretary of National Security Council (Tanjug)

Serbian Interior Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic has been appointed as secretary of the Council for National Security. The decision on the appointment was made by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic pursuant to Article 7, Paragraph 3 of the Law on the Foundations of Regulating Serbian Security Services, an official statement said. The Council’s secretary also acts as chief of the Bureau for Coordination of Security Services.

REGIONAL PRESS

Dodik calls on opposition to create, together with ruling parties, new decision regarding referendum (BN TV)

A special session of the Republika Srpska (RS) Assembly at which MPs discussed the proposal of the ruling coalition, led by SNSD, to suspend the decision on the referendum on the work of the B&H Court and the Prosecutor's Office was held in Banja Luka on Monday. MPs conducted a heated discussion, with representatives of the ruling parties and the opposition exchanging insults and accusations. The heated debate in the RSNA was marked by a duel between RS President and SNSD leader Milorad Dodik and SDS leader VukotaGovedarica. Govedarica accused Dodik of undermining the institution of the RSNA and trading with the referendum.

Dodik addressed MPs and added that the referendum will not be suspended permanently, but until political unity in the RS is achieved. Dodik stressed that the referendum is “holy right of the RS” and that the RS will continue to fight for this right. He reminded that the decision on the referendum was adopted in 2011 and 2015 and emphasized that it should not be a subject of conflict between the authorities and opposition. Dodik called on the opposition to endorse the referendum, to vote together. He explained that the census is required to implement results of the referendum at the state level. Dodik said that the only way to fight against such state judiciary is by political unity of the RS. “Tell me the way to fight against it and I will accept it,” Dodik told the opposition.

RS Assembly puts out of force all decisions on referendum on B&H Court and Prosecutor’s Office (RTRS)

The Republika Srpska (RS) Assembly adopted a decision on Tuesday early morning, putting out of force all decisions on referendum on the B&H Court and the Prosecutor’s Office.

Forty-six representatives voted for this decision, and 25 representatives opposed it. The RS Assembly also adopted conclusions of Caucuses of SNSD, DNS, SP and SDS-K, which suggest that decision on conducting the referendum should be back on agenda as soon as all important political entities from the RS, which are represented in the RSNA and the Parliament of B&H, reach consensus on that matter. One of the conclusions reads that the RSNA supports initiative to organize signing of petition with a question identical to the referendum question on the B&H Court and the Prosecutor’s Office. The RS Assembly also adopted a conclusion according to which all charges and verdicts by “so-called” judiciary at B&H level are obvious evidence of selective justice, which produces destruction of authority of overall judiciary and which creates even larger mistrust, moving further and further away from reconciliation in B&H.

The RS Assembly session was closed early this morning after 18-hour long discussion.

International community reacts to Dodik’s announcement on procedure of adoption of new RS Constitution (BHT1)

Milorad Dodik's recent announcement, according to which the process of adoption of a new RS Constitution might be launched next year, is actually realistic. According to Dodik’s announcement, the new Constitution of the RS would not be aimed at separatism but it would make it possible to raise the issue of secession. “B&H exists in a specific situation because it has an imposed Constitution and because the High Representatives have even interfered with amendments to the Constitution such as the Constitution of the RS. Therefore, this is a good opportunity to once again promote the idea to gather everyone in the RS next year and to create the RS Constitution in line with democratic potential of these people and needs of the RS,” Dodik said. According to a statement issued by the Office of the High Representative (OHR), any kind of change of the RS Constitution should be adopted by the RS Assembly with consent of the caucuses in the RS Council of Peoples (RS CoP).

The US Embassy to B&H has warned that any kind of action aimed at dissolution of B&H would represent a violation of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA), which would certainly trigger adequate reactions.

Ruling majority in Brcko District resolves political crisis (Nezavisne novine)

The political crisis in the Brcko District has been resolved and the ruling coalition of SNSD, SDA and HDZ Bosnia and Herzegovina will remain in authority. Mayor of the Brcko District Sinisa Milic stated that they will confirm their coalition through efficient work of the institutions. “It may not be the best majority, but others are worse,” he said and added that they realized they do not have an alternative. “I expect us to sit down very soon and talk about the most important issues for functioning of this local community, and that means adoption of the budget for 2018 and a rebalance we are obliged to adopt,” said the Mayor. President of SNSD Brcko Djordja Kojic said that they have managed to overcome their problems and they will now continue to work in the same capacity as before.

52nd Report of the High Representative for Implementation of the Peace Agreement on B&H to the Secretary-General of the UN (Fena/Oslobodjenje)

High Representative Valentin Inzko will submit a report on implementation of peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) to the UN Secretary General today. The report covers the period from April 22 to October 21, 2017. The report reads that B&H political leaders have already shifted their focus from economic reforms to ethnic issues although it is one year before general elections in B&H. The HR judged as positive that B&H has taken certain steps which refer to implementation of measures from Reform Agenda, that it prepares answers to the EC’ Questionnaire and that B&H has signed the Transport Community Treaty. The HR also stated that political parties have different stances regarding election of delegates in Federation of B&H House of Peoples which eventually might prevent implementation results of general elections. He added that despite of these risks the political parties in the state Parliament have not stared yet a serious political dialogue in order to talk about possible changes and amendments to B&H Election Law. The report reads that RS President Milorad Dodik and other SNSD members do not call for secession of Republika Srpska (RS) and break-up of B&H so frequently after the USA introduced travel and financial sanctions against Dodik. The HR added that some Croat politicians have continued to advocate re-organization of B&H according to ethnic principles and he warned that the RSNA has adopted Resolution on Military Neutrality of the RS although it does not have constitutional competence to interfere with foreign policy of B&H.

As for authority functioning, the HR said that SBB B&H, which is a part of the ruling coalition, openly joined the opposition in B&H Parliamentary Assembly and defeated the B&H Council of Ministers’ Report for 2016. He added that this resulted that SDA openly called on SBB B&H to leave the ruling collation. Inzko also warned of tense relation between SDA and HDZ B&H due to different stances regarding changes to B&H Election Law, issue of Mostar and election of B&H Presidency members.

Brammertz meets B&H and international officials (BHT1)

Chief Prosecutor of the ICTY and the Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals (MICT) Serge Brammertz paid a visit to B&H on Monday, amid the preparations for his six-month progress report that will be presented to the UN Security Council in December 2017. Brammertz held a meeting with Bosniak member of the B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic, which was dedicated to regional cooperation in the field of judiciary and prosecution of war crimes in B&H. The meeting was also dedicated to the work on preparation of the National Strategy for Processing of War Crimes Cases in B&H. Izetbegovic-Brammertz meeting was also attended by advisors of B&H Presidency Chairman Dragan Covic and Presidency member Mladen Ivanic as well as by Bosniak Liaison Officer to the ICTY Amir Ahmic.

Brammertz also met with Principal Deputy High Representative Dennis Hearne and Acting Chief Prosecutor of the Prosecutor’s Office of B&H Gordana Tadic. During his meeting with Tadic, they concluded that closure of the ICTY does not mean the end of war crime trials, since the job will be continued by prosecutor’s offices in the region. They agreed that priority of the Prosecutor’s Office of B&H will be prosecution of remaining complex cases against suspects at higher and medium levels.

ICTY offers three dates to Mladic’s defense team for two doctors from Serbia to visit him (TV1)

The ICTY has offered three dates to defense team of wartime commander of RS Army and ICTY war crime indictee General RatkoMladic for two doctors from Serbia to visit him.

Mladic’s defense has asked the ICTY to postpone pronouncing of the verdict scheduled for 22 November in this case until Mladic is examined by Serbian doctors. The defense team requested this in order to determine if Mladic is able to take part in the proceedings at all. Victims’ associations demand from ICTY not to allow visit of Serbian doctors to Ratko Mladic. They believe there is no reason for the Tribunal to allow the Serbian doctors’ visit, because the doctors of the ICTY are very capable of dealing with any health issue.

Memorial plaque to deceased Russian Ambassador to UN Vitaly Churkin solemnly unveiled in Istocno Sarajevo (TV1)

After a failed attempt to unveil the memorial plaque to deceased Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin in Srebrenica, the memorial plaque in his honor was solemnly unveiled in Istocno Sarajevo on Monday. TV1 reminds that Churkin has vetoed the UN’s resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica. RS Minister of Labor, War Veterans and Disabled Persons' Protection Milenko Savanovic unveiled the plaque and the ceremony was organized by the citizens’ association ‘Istocna Alternativa’ with support of the Russian Embassy to Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and the Istocno Novo Sarajevo Municipality.  Savanovic stressed that Churkin was fighting against marking the Serb people as a genocidal nation, thus showing that he had always been supportive of the Serb people. Representative of Russian Embassy to B&H Petr Frolov reminded that Churkin participated in creation of the Dayton Peace Agreement, in which he invested knowledge and efforts for B&H to progress and prosper.

HDZ: Parliament to take no confidence vote in gov't Friday (Hina)

The President of the Croatian Democratic Union's (HDZ) parliamentary group, Branko Bacic, said on Monday that parliament could debate and take a no confidence vote in the government on Friday, underscoring that there was no reason to wait. Prime Minister AndrejPlenkovic said on Monday evening that the opposition initiatives for no confidence votes in the government and Minister of Demography, Family, Youth and Social Policy Nada Murganic would end in failure like previous opposition initiatives because the government and the minister would be supported by the parliamentary majority.

Slovenians against border dialogue with Croatia (Jutarnji list)

More than half of Slovenians don't want the prime ministers of the two countries to meet and discuss the border dispute. Less than half of all Slovenians support continued dialogue with Croatia about open issues, according to a poll published by the Slovenian publicationDelo daily on Monday. About 40 percent of respondents said they would advise their prime minister to meet with his Croatian counterpart, regardless of the differences in positions about the arbitration process and the arbitrators’ decision, according to the poll of 515 adults, which was conducted by the leading Slovenian daily newspaper last week. As much as 52 percent of respondents said they would recommend that Prime Minister Cerar does not meet with Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic “until Croatia accepts the arbitration decision.” The remaining eight percent said they had no position on the issue.

Montenegro part of a strong response to Moscow’s actions (Pobjeda)

The US State Department’s Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence Laura Cooper said that Montenegro could expect continued support from and presence of the USA in the region. However, she said it was no longer just support but a partnership, since Montenegro was now USA’s NATO ally. “The fact that the Vice President Mike Pence has recently visited Montenegro sends a strong message of the US support to the region and its solidarity with Montenegro as a NATO ally,” Cooper said in an interview with Pobjeda.

Commenting on the Moscow’s meddling in both US and Montenegro’s elections, Cooper called to mind that the US intelligence service announced a clear report which identified cyber-attacks and meddling into the elections in America. “It is something repeatedly seen across Europe through media speculations, fake news and cyber-attacks,” she said adding that the good thing was the fact that the awareness of the threats was raised, as well as the ability to fight them.

However, she believes the trends are not good when it comes to Russia’s wish to interfere in the internal affairs of democratic societies across Western Europe and the USA. “It is not only a matter of Montenegro – it is a matter of Russia’s perception of its role in the West and the things it chooses to do when it comes to interfering in internal affairs of democratic countries. The NATO alliance has opted for a strong response in order to prevent those threats and defend ourselves from Russia’s meddling and aggression. Montenegro, as a part of NATO, will be a part of that strong response,” Cooper said. She pointed out that Montenegro had a very solid plan of reaching the 2% budget allocation for defense by 2024. Cooper also said that Montenegrin soldiers’ capabilities exceeded their category. She added that Montenegro, as a NATO member, would be a part of the strong response to Russia’s undesirable and destabilizing activities.

Zaev expects strong reaction from Russia over Macedonia’s NATO accession (MIA)

Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has said that NATO and EU are the only alternatives for Macedonia, expecting a strong reaction from Russia when the time comes for the country's accession to the Alliance. In an interview with Montenegrin radio station Antena M, PM Zaev says he is prepared for a fierce reaction from Moscow, similar to the one when Montenegro joined NATO. "They reacted about Montenegro and we are prepared for this, since there is no other alternative for my country. I repeat, we want to enhance cooperation with Russia, for example by selling more agriculture products there. However, there is no other alternative for us, EU and NATO are our options", says Zaev. He is prepared for everything in the achievement of these objectives.

"I am aware of the assassination attempts that were prevented. Some analysts say it's my turn now. If something is supposed to happen, then be it. I accepted this job of being prime minister, my country needs a leader and I am prepared to take decisions that our citizens expect, regardless of the stakes", stresses PM Zaev and voices conviction that Macedonia will become NATO's 30th member.

Zaev: Macedonia expects a launch of EU accession talks by next June (MIA)

Macedonia expects clear road map for its EU accession process and the first step to that effect should be a launch of the country's accession talks in June of 2018, Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said Monday at the 14th Economic Forum 'Future Dialogue 2017', held in Vienna.

'The EU enlargement strategy, which will be unveiled by the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at the EU Summit in February and Western Balkan Summit in Sofia in May of 2018, is vital for ensuring Macedonia's European future. We expect a clear road map for Macedonia's accession process. No country should be left aside. The first, crucial step is setting the date for opening the accession talks by June 2018, based on the results we shall present in implementing the reform plan 3-6-9. Europe is more powerful, both from economic and political aspect and we should work together to take advantage of the new momentum,' Zaev said.

Osmani: 2018 key year for Macedonia’s EU integration (MIA)

The next 2018 is a historic year for the Republic of Macedonia in terms to our integration and in regard to these ambitions we expect support from Croatia, Deputy PM for European Affairs Bujar Osmani stated Monday at the meeting with the Croatian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Marija Pejcinovic-Buric, in the frames of his first official visit to Republic of Croatia. The meeting focused on bilateral cooperation between two countries, enlargement process and European perspective of the region as well as Croatia’s support for Macedonia’s integration in the EU and NATO, Secretariat for European Affairs said in a press release. While in Croatia, Osmani is scheduled to meet with Deputy Speaker of the Croatian Parliament Zeljko Reiner, Chairman of the European Affairs Committee Domagoj Ivan Milosevic and Chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee Miro Kovac and to discuss topics of regional cooperation of the Western Balkans within European processes and the European perspectives of the entire region. On the sidelines of the visit, Osmani will also deliver an address on topic “New page for Macedonia: 2018 a year of credible enlargement perspective” before diplomatic officials in Croatia in the premises of the EU Delegation in Zagreb.

Agency for dialogue and co-governance established (ATA)

The e-platform of co-governance with citizens “Together for Albania we want” is institutionalized as the government of Albania approved Monday the relevant decision on establishment of the Agency for Dialogue and Co-governance. The Agency will be tasked with guaranteeing co-governance and an all-embracing stance in policy-making and decision-making through inter-action via the e-platform “Together for Albania we want” of the citizens, NGOs and private entrepreneurship with the public administration and governing institutions as well as support for the projects  and programs for an open society and for institutions closer to the citizens, the civil society, youth and other actors in fields like innovation, creativity, transparency, education, youth, science, art, culture, vulnerable groups. The Agency ensures responsibility of the public administration institutions during interaction with the citizens in the e-platform through guaranteeing that in cooperation with the relevant ministries and affiliated institutions for all the messages, initiatives, complaints or requests sent, the citizens receive a response in the proper way and time. Likewise, in cooperation with the relevant ministries and affiliated institutions, the Agency treats the initiatives of public interest of the citizens, NGOs or entrepreneurship. The Agency also treats in cooperation with the ministries and affiliated institutions the proposals and ideas for government projects and reforms. The Agency is dependent by the prime minister. It has its headquarters in Tirana as well as its seal and coat of arms.

Xhafaj meets EU ambassadors, says Albania to open new anti-crime chapter (ATA)

Albania will open a new chapter in the fight against organized crime, Minister of Interior Fatmir Xhafaj said following a two-hour meeting with the ambassadors of the European Union member states on Monday. Interior Minister Xhafaj said that the anti-organized crime operation “Power of Law” will be launched at the Ministry of Interior. The meeting focused on the fight against organized crime, implementation of the vetting process and formation of a special anti-crime Task Force that has been earlier announced by the Prime Minister Edi Rama.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

IMF says its non-financing tool, one option for Serbia (Reuters, 7 November 2017)

BELGRADE - The head of the International Monetary Fund Mission to Serbia, James Roaf, said on Tuesday the Fund’s non-financing tool could be one option for Serbia once it concludes current arrangements with the Fund in February next year. The Policy Coordination Instrument is designed for countries seeking to demonstrate commitment to a reform agenda or to unlock and coordinate financing from other official creditors or private investors. “I know the authorities are interested in continuing to collaborate, we are ready to support them,” Roaf told journalists.

“One of options is PCI - it is a new instrument and intended for countries that have no need for financing,” he said.

(Reporting by Aleksandar Vasovic; Editing by Ivana Sekularac)

Most EU hopefuls might not be ready to join before 2050, Study finds (EurActiv, 6 November 2017)

A new study looking into the practical, legal and technical aspects of further EU expansion has concluded that only one country, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, could meet the criteria for joining the bloc before 2023. Serbia, currently touted as the frontrunner together with the tiny coastal republic of Montenegro, would only manage to fully comply with EU law in the mid-2030s, and the same goes for Turkey, the Forecasting Candidate Status study, written by Professor Tina Freyburg of the University of St Gallen, said. Further enlargement of the EU during the 2014-2019 mandate of Jean-Claude Juncker’s Commission has been ruled out but the question of who might join the bloc next remains an interesting debate, even though there is little real appetite for bloc’s further expansion. The list of countries still vying for EU membership includes official candidates Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey, and EU hopefuls Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. The study has considered how likely it is that five of those candidate countries would join the EU before 2050, based on previous accession benchmarks used during the 2004 big-bang enlargement. EU accession is only possible when candidate countries meet a comprehensive list of criteria and when they have implemented EU law, known as the acquis, into their own national legislation. This includes everything from judicial reform to transport and energy policy.

The study said Macedonia is the only country likely to meet the benchmarks before 2023, while Serbia and Turkey would only manage to fully comply with EU law in the mid-2030s.

Turkey’s continued membership bid is the most controversial, particularly in light of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on opposition forces following the failed coup attempt last year. Member states and European lawmakers have made high-profile calls on the EU to suspend or even scrap Turkey’s bid, which Ankara formally launched in 1987. The situation is made significantly more delicate by Brussels’ reliance on Ankara to enforce the refugee deal, which, in addition to factors like Brexit and rising populism, means the appetite for EU expansion has, arguably, never been lower. Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina might not be in a position to meet the criteria on EU accession before 2050, which the study uses as evidence to show that political ambitions in those countries might outweigh the reality of the situation.

Professor Freyburg emphasizes that her work completely excludes the political dimension of the issue, including the European Commission’s moratorium on enlargement, instability in Turkey and the political uncertainty in countries like Bosnia, or the fact that Macedonia’s progress is blocked by Greece because of a 20-year old name dispute. The study did not include Kosovo or Montenegro in its predictions, saying there is a lack of sufficient data to make a worthwhile estimate of accession prospects for either country. Additionally, Kosovo is still not recognized by five EU member states so its membership is currently a moot point. However, Freyburg told EURACTIV.com that Montenegro, which only became independent from Serbia in 2006, “possesses characteristics comparable to Macedonia, which might make their future levels of compliance with EU law comparable as well”.

Montenegro’s prospects of successful accession are often hailed in Brussels as the most promising. Although some factors like a border dispute with Kosovo continue, its barriers to EU membership are less significant than other candidates. Freyburg added that “Montenegro might reasonably be seen as being among the first potential next member states” but warned that the political willingness of the Montenegrin government and vetoes by other member states are outside the control of the study. It concluded that the results appear to lower EU enlargement expectations and that the findings might even “paint a ‘too optimistic’ picture and the actual future compliance levels […] could well be even weaker than suggested”. The study also highlighted that enlargement is most often driven by candidate country action and progress, rather than an “expansionist” Brussels policy. It added that EU concerns about increased membership jeopardizing a “deepening of the European institutions” are non-technical barriers that prospective members must contend with. The latest addition to the EU is Croatia, which formally joined the bloc in 2013. It is yet to join Schengen or the Eurozone but in his 2017 State of the Union address, Jean-Claude Juncker called on Croatia to be admitted to the former as soon as it meets all the relevant criteria.

Last week, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic announced that he is hopeful his country will join the Eurozone within seven to eight years’ time.