LOCAL PRESS

 

Brnabic: Serbian, Macedonian governments to hold session in 2018 (Tanjug/RTS/Beta)

 

A preliminary agreement has been reached to hold a joint session of the Serbian and Macedonian governments in late February or early March next year, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said after a meeting with Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev in Belgrade on Tuesday. At a joint press conference, Brnabic said they had also discussed concrete projects and cooperation that needed to be worked on for agreements to be signed at the joint session. “Regional cooperation and regional integration is very important, because without regional peace and stability there can be no European integration of the Western Balkans,” Brnabic said after the meeting. Zaev said that relations between Macedonia and Serbia are those of partnership and good neighborliness, and said that Serbia and Macedonia are now as before linked many issues, which opens the potential for further cooperation. Zaev also that he and Brnabic spoke about the regional cooperation, and that Macedonia supports the proposal to make Belgrade the seat of the Transport Secretariat, within the framework of the Berlin Process.

 

Vucic: Serbia committed to develop relations with Russia (Tanjug)

 

Serbia is firmly committed to develop further its political relations with Russia, based on strategic partnership and readiness of both sides to deepen them in all spheres, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said at a meeting with Valentina Matviyenko, Chairwoman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. He thanked the Russian Federation on the firm and consistent support to Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and the efforts to resolve the issue of Kosovo and Metohija by peaceful and diplomatic means, by dialogue. The Serbian President has stated that Serbia will maintain its status of a militarily neutral country, that Serbia is on the EU path, but that it has not, nor will it impose sanctions on Russia.
He voiced gratitude for the fact that the Russian Federation has supported countless times Serbia’s interests in UNESCO, the United Nations and other international organizations and forums. Vucic also thanked the Russian side for the good arrangement in the form of military and technical assistance, which enables Serbia the long-awaited modernization.
Matviyenko stressed that the Russian Federation highly appreciates the independent policy and readiness of Serbia to cooperate with Russia. “The trust is mutual,” she said. She conveyed the greetings from President Putin and his expectations that Serbia and the Russian Federation will continue to develop relations between the two countries during the visit of President Vucic to Moscow.
Matviyenko: Serbia forced to make an artificial choice between the West and Russia (Beta/Tanjug/B92)

 

Forcing Serbia to make an artificial choice between the West and Russia is impermissible, the Chairwoman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation Valentina Matviyenko told a special session in the Serbian parliament. “Russia always stood for the right of every sovereign country to cooperate with any partner. Today Serbia is one of a few countries in the world that is defending precisely this position,” she said. She also said that Serbia can continue to count on her country's consistent support when it comes to Kosovo and Metohija. She said the Kosovo issue was by and large provoked by an outside aggression, and by the relentless meddling of NATO countries into the internal affairs of then Yugoslavia, and remarked that through its centuries-long history, Serbia several time became the object of crude outside pressure. “In Russia, we will never forget those tragic events for your country, the aggression of the West in the 1990s, the result of which was a forcible trearing apart of a modern European country and a forcible change inside European borders,” said Matviyenko, reiterating Moscow’s support for Serbia’s territorial integrity regarding Kosovo, stressing that the tragic event of NATO’s (1999) aggression rendered the fragmentation of a European country acceptable. “Seventy-three years ago, together we liberated Belgrade. Today, we consistently back Belgrade regarding Kosovo. I assure you that Serbia can continue to count on the support of Russia and the Russian people,” Matviyenko told Serbian MPs. She said that Russia highly appreciates Serbia’s firm position, despite pressure, against introducing illegal sanctions against Russia, aimed at suppressing Russia's economic growth, and its growing influence in the world.

“This stance of yours is sincere friendship. Not every country has found such courage, but you have,” she said, stressing that Russia highly appreciates Serbia’s politically and morally principled stance. Relations between the two countries, the Russian official continued, are an example of true friendship and brotherhood based on historical closeness, and mutual respect, trust and cooperation that has been confirmed over the centuries. “This is why we can say that there is no force in the world capable of undermining our friendship, brotherhood, and cooperation - no matter how much effort somebody may invest in it.” Recalling the two country’s cooperation through history, and their joint fight for freedom and independence and the right to choose independently, as well as the mutual support offered by Russians and Serb to each other, Matviyenko said the unity between Russia and Serbia must be guarded, strengthened, and transferred to future generations. She recalled the Serbian saying, “God in Heaven, Russia on Earth.” “Such words, thoughts and feelings live for centuries, from one generation to another - because they come from the depth of the soul,” Matviyenko said.

In her speech, the Russian official observed that the role of women has been growing lately, including in Serbia where two women now hold important state offices - of prime minister, and parliament speaker.

“Today, Russia and Serbia have a strategic partnership that covers all fields of cooperation, including the political level, high and top level meetings of the parliaments and government, with a positive trend in trade relations,” Matviyenko said, adding that the bilateral free trade agreement, signed in 2000, has been meeting expectations, and creating favorable conditions for continued cooperation. Currently, Serbia and the Eurasian Economic Union are discussing unifying the trade regime in the context of the initiative to form a large Eurasian space, launched by President Vladimir Putin. “A successful completion of these negotiations - and they are proceeding very intensively - will allow Serbia to reach a new level of cooperation with the Eurasian economic alliance. This will provide a bigger market for Serbian goods,” Matviyenko said.

 

Djuric: Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija realized that salvation is in unity (RTS)

 

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric has told the morning news of Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS) that the Serb List is the absolute winner of the elections in Kosovo and Metohija. He says that the Serb List won in ten municipalities, Isa Mustafa’s party won in eight, Haradinaj’s party won in seven, and the Self-Determination Movement won in five. He stressed that the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija managed to gather and responded to the call of their state and President Aleksandar Vucic. He says that the jurisdictions of municipalities are not little and this is why Pristina was trying to divide the Serbs. He says this was also done by part of the international community. “But the Serbs were above this and realized that salvation is in unity,” he says.

Speaking about the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO), Djuric says that the stopwatch is on and that Pristina has been postponing its obligations for 1,675 days already. He says Belgrade is always ready for talks. Djuric says that the address for the dialogue with Pristina is the EU and that consent of all parties is necessary for introducing other participants.

When it comes to initiative for the formation of the Kosovo army, Djuric says that Belgrade opposed this and for this has serious legal foundation in Resolution 1244 and the Military-Technical Agreement. He recalls that the only army in Kosovo and Metohija is KFOR and that, theoretically, this can also be the Serbian Army at NATO’s approval. Djuric is certain that Pristina will attempt to evade international agreements, and stresses that they will never have Belgrade’s support for this.

 

Jankovic: We don’t want dialogue with current authorities (RTV)

 

Even though we have a defined stand on the most current problems in the state, the Movement of Free Citizens (PSG) doesn’t want to take part in the dialogue with the authorities since this is not a dialogue but a farce, PSG leader Sasa Jankovic told Radio and Television of Vojvodina (RTV). When it comes to Kosovo, Jankovic says that it has been lost during the rule of Slobodan Milosevic and Vojislav Seselj, i.e. the red and black coalition. Ever since then, Serbia doesn’t have sovereignty in this part of the territory, Jankovic says, stressing that he would never sign a document on recognition of Kosovo. Asked whether he would formalize with his signature, if he were the Serbian president, the state-of-affairs that Kosovo is independent, Jankovic says that he would never sign something that means that Kosovo is independent from Serbia, but that he would not stand in the way of Kosovo’s development as a democratic state. “None of us has the right to leave to Serbia less than what she/he had found,” assessed Jankovic. He says that one should prevent Kosovo from becoming member of international organizations, because, as he put it, all citizens will benefit from that. “We need to secure our historical and cultural heritage, the moment when Serbia would have factual possibility to guarantee integrity of its cultural-historical monuments then we would not have any problems for the authorities in Pristina to be responsible for everything that is not part of Serbian history and on the territory of Kosovo,” said Jankovic. Commenting the fact that Gracanica and Decani monasteries are noted as the Kosovo heritage, Jankovic says it is up to Serbia to prove otherwise, and that Kosovo’s membership in international organizations cannot be accepted until it is proven. The most important issues in Kosovo are issues concerning human rights, our historical and spiritual roots, and property rights, says Jankovic.

When it comes to the most political issue in the state, the issue of the status of the Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center in Nis, Jankovic wonders: “Why do humanitarians need diplomatic or a privileged status? What is written in the agreement on the establishment of this center? We don’t know what is written in agreements that we sign. The unknown annexes of this agreement and other agreement need to be published, and then we will find out what is whose obligation and jurisdiction,” says Jankovic.

In reaction to Jankovic’s idea that Decani and Gracanica should be handed over to Pristina, and that Belgrade needs to prove that they are “ours”, Marko Djuric says this is an unseen scandal of unimaginable proportions. The statement reads that now it is clear why Jankovic, while he was ombudsman during two mandates, has not written one single word about the position of the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija.

 

Georgia will not recognize Kosovo (Tanjug/B92)

 

Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili has said that his country maintains the position not to recognize the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo. Kvirikashvili also urged Serbian businesspeople to take advantage of Tbilisi's incentives offered to foreign investors. The Georgian Prime Minister made these comments as he met with visiting Serbian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Trade, Tourism and Telecommunications Rasim Ljajic and Minister of State Administration and Local Government Branko Ruzic. They discussed further development of political relations and the enhancement of economic cooperation between the two countries, the two Serbian ministries announced. Kvirikashvili pointed out that Georgia remains of the position not to recognize the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo by provisional institutions in Pristina, since the principles of inviolability of borders and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states must be the basis for overall stability in international relations.

During his visit to Tbilisi, Ljajic signed and Deputy Prime Minister of Georgia Dmitri Kumsishvili signed an agreement on economic and trade cooperation between the two countries, while Ruzic signed a bilateral memorandum on cooperation in public administration reform with Minister of Justice of Georgia Thea Tsulukiani.

 

Next year in Prizren (Politika, by S. Kovacevic)

 

The third round table in Matica srpska in Novi Sad was held under the topic “Kosovo and Metohija: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow”, whereby this Serbia’s oldest literary, scientific and cultural institution joined the internal dialogue on Kosovo and Metohija. “Along with the culture of dialogue, I am convinced that we can reach stands, proposals and solutions so to be able to eventually return Kosovo and Metohija under the jurisdiction of the Serbian people, who have spiritually risen precisely in this field, and who have also, with this rising, raised this place. For us, the issue of Kosovo is an issue of the future,” Matica srpska President Dragan Stanic said at the opening.

In the introductory part, Backa Bishop Irinej has stated that the all-Serbian dialogue on Kosovo and Metohija has been conducted since the Kosovo battle, and that this is our permanent topic. “Just as believers, as well as the majority of our nation, essentially experience this problem in the same way, I believe that our real, and not self-styled elite, will also crystalize in the end a stand that will be unambiguous, if not unanimous, and which will reflect a collective feeling and position of our entire nation,” said the Bishop. He conveyed to the elite to return to discourse the name Stara Srbija (Old Serbia) for Kosovo and Metohija, and he also spoke of terms Kosovo “myth” that is rather used than “testament” that “causes quiver in the soul”. He asked why don’t we say “next year in Prizren” or “next year in Pec”, as the Jews have done in relation to their Jerusalem.

Sociologist Zoran Avramovic drew the attention to language acrobatics “let us leave the past, let us turn to the future” and “Kosovo – reality”, noting that the Serbian Constitution is also the reality.

“If Serbia accepts the normalization of relations with Kosovo, by the dictate of the West, including the United Nations seat, Serbia will be reduced to the Belgrade Pashaluk (Ottoman administrative unit) in due time, considering its schismatic elites, primarily political-economic,” said professor Branko Balj, who spoke about “clear addressing” of Serbian interests, and this is “certainly the one on Serbian Kosovo and Metohija, which may resemble that all of us lose a little bit but gain something, and under B, as parallel, the opening of the issue of Republika Srpska in the sense of even more intense and stronger ties with Serbia, if not under it”.

Professor Slobodan Vladusic spoke about notions “personality” and “careerist” linking them with the Kosovo testament. “The Kosovo myth is a story about a decision to be a personality, not a slave, careerist or a vassal. That is a story about Tsar Lazar who is choosing a bet for the future instead of being a slave to the present. He loses the present, but gains the future. How do we know this? Well, simply, because we are now taking part in this myth, and we are taking part by maintaining it as a framework for the future – we are retelling it, modernizing it, interpreting it, thus opening space for freedom  for what we want to be the past, present and future,” said Vladusic.

Academic Miro Vuksanovic stressed that Serbia “must not and cannot” recognize that its part, Kosovo and Metohija, has become an independent state of Kosovo. “Every state that has not recognized the violent separation of Kosovo and Metohija is protecting Serbia in this natural process. We should always mention that these states are China, Russia, the Vatican, several EU member states and dozens of states from other parts of the world,” he said. He adds that Serbia must do everything it is obliged as the home country for the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija to live and work freely. The Serbian Orthodox Church, all institutions in Serbia are obliged to study, protect and renew Serbian monuments of spirituality in Kosovo and Metohija. “Serbia will continue to be under pressures, threats and blackmails, but it must find enough strength, wisdom and skill to resist, but never to its own detriment, but to persistently stand on two feet that are called the truth and wit,” concluded Vuksanovic.

Professor emeritus, literary critique and writer Slavko Gordic stresses that Kosovo and Metohija is our holy land. “This primarily means that it is not about mere territory, so therefore there can be no talk about either division or exchange of territory.”

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

Despite agreement, opposition and ruling parties in RS continue exchanging accusations (N1)

 

Less than 24 hours after the meeting organized by the Republika Srpska Assembly speaker Nedeljko Cubrilovic, during which collocutors agreed to reduce political tensions, officials of the opposition and ruling parties in the RS resumed with mutual accusations.

Namely, the conclusions made at Sunday’s meeting of ruling coalition and opposition in the RS were rejected by RS President Milorad Dodik only 24 hours later. Dodik accused opposition parties of violation of the agreement reached on Sunday, because the public was informed about requests they submitted during the meeting.

On the other hand, representatives of opposition parties said that they also acted in a fair manner. Leader of NDP Dragan Cavic stated that the text of the agreement between ruling and the opposition parties they prepared was published at web sites of opposition parties before Sunday meeting.

Leader of SDS Vukota Govedarica underlined that it is clear Dodik does not want to reach an agreement with the opposition parties and does not want to talk about issues related to the public broadcasting service of the RS.

Also, Cubrilovic still believes that an agreement will be reached.  Reporter noted that almost all parties involved in the abovementioned process have delivered names of their candidates for a joint commission for resolving of parliamentary crisis in the RS. Cubrilovic will chair the first session of this commission and he expects that two sides will harmonize stances regarding some issues. He believes that many requests of the opposition parties are unacceptable. However, Cubrilovic’s party DNS deems that certain changes related to functioning of RTRS are necessary.

Leader of PDP Branislav Borenovic stated that it is necessary to reach an agreement between the two sides in order to normalize political life in the RS and to enable holding of the next session of the RSNA.

 

Zvizdic discusses EU integration and NATO MAP activation with US Ambassador Cormack (Oslobodjenje)

 

Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Denis Zvizdic met with US Ambassador to B&H Maureen Cormack on Monday in Sarajevo. The two officials concluded that it is necessary to focus on implementation of the reform measures and finalizing of the answers to the European Commission’s Questionnaire in the upcoming period. They also commended B&H’s progress in meeting the conditions for the activation of NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP). They stated that the road to EU and MAP activation will influence economic development of the country and ensure new foreign investments.

 

Brussels: Delegation of B&H HoR at senior level round table dedicated to European integration of Western Balkans (Fena)

 

Statement issued by the B&H parliament, which reads that Speaker of the B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Borjana Kristo, Deputy Speakers Mladen Bosic and Sefik Dzaferovic and B&H HoR representative Aleksandra Pandurevic are participating in a two-day round table on senior level dedicated to the process of European integration of Western Balkans, which is taking place in Brussels. The round table is also attended by members of the European Parliament (EP), members of parliaments of countries that are in the pre-accession process and members of parliaments of the EU member countries. According to the statement, it was said that, due to the fact that the Stabilization and Association Parliamentary Committee is not functioning, a lot of time has been lost. Kristo presented chronology of B&H’s European path so far, stressing that populism and demagogy are caused by early pre-election campaign, and that lack of trust and political will are causes of the current halt and inability to reach political agreement on important issues.

 

Mladic’s case: ICTY is scheduled to render verdict on Wednesday (RTRS)

 

RTRS reported that the entire region is waiting for the first-instance verdict in case of wartime Commander of the Republika Srpska (RS) Army Ratko Mladic scheduled to be rendered before the ICTY, on Wednesday. Lawyers of Mladic stated that his client may not attend the official pronouncing of the verdict due to his medical condition.

RS President Milorad Dodik said in Banja Luka on Monday that regardless of the outcome of the trial, Mladic will remain a part of the history of the Serb people, as a man who defended their freedom, organized the Army and took command in difficult times, sacrificing his personal and family live.

RS Assembly speaker Nedeljko Cubrilovic stated in Banja Luka on Monday that the trial of Mladic reflects the overall stance in the RS about “the past civil war”. According to Cubrilovic, Serbs were declared guilty of many things even those in which they did not took part and sentenced to many years of prison.

President of the Organization of the Elders of the RS Army Milovan Milutinovic told the RS that they remain firm in their support to Mladic, regardless of the outcome of the trial.

RTRS noted that everyone agrees that the verdict to Mladic will additionally complicate relations among the peoples in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), regardless of the fact whether the Trial Chamber will accept claims of prosecutors, who accuse Mladic of the most severe war crimes against Bosniaks and Serbs, or the defense that claims that Mladic will be sentenced as a personification of the RS and as a person who is the most responsible for defense of Serbs.

 

Serwer sees opposition boycott as pointless (Dnevne novine)

 

An expert for Balkan affairs Daniel Serwer considers Montenegrin opposition’s Parliament boycott to be pointless. The professor at the American John Hopkins University told Dnevne Novine he hoped that the EU wouldn’t sanction Montenegro for its opposition’s bad behavior, which, in his opinion, wasn’t doing its job. Commenting on the European Commission’s President Jean-Claude Juncker’s statement that Serbia and Montenegro could become EU members by 2025, Serwer said it was key that Montenegro finished the reforms it started by the pre-set date. According to him, the “enlargement package” of several states is not a good approach to the issue. “I don’t see advantages of Serbia and Montenegro’s joint EU accession. Serbia is facing various challenges in the qualifications for the EU, which is different from the issues Montenegro is facing with,” Serwer stated. He also commented on the recent statement of the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who said that the ongoing attempted terrorism trial was obviously politically ordered. Serwer said it was Lavrov’s way of trying to cover up the Russian responsibility for the attempted state coup and assassination of Milo Djukanovic.

 

Moscow’s meddling made EU enlargement a priority (Pobjeda)

 

Russian meddling in Western Balkan affairs made the enlargement to South-eastern European countries a priority for the EU. There is no enlargement fatigue and the entre EU wishes Montenegro to become a member as soon as possible, European Parliament MP and former Slovenian foreign minister Ivo Vajgl said. In an interview with Pobjeda, he also explained that there had to be an atmosphere of inclusion between the government and the opposition in Montenegro and that Parliament was the place to confront arguments. The MEP participated in the International Conference of the Montenegrin Pan European Union, held in Podgorica on Saturday. “The EU is interested in the stabilization of the situation on the European continent and that cannot be achieved unless Southeast Europe becomes a part of the Union. When the process of integration is completed, mutual problems in the region will disappear, as well as the myths of the past that still govern Balkan politicians. In Montenegro, there have been no great structural problems. However, there are reasons for serious reform work. One of these reforms is the one in the media sphere, as well as in the sphere of the rule of law. You must work on fighting corruption, strengthening the judiciary, and more efficient administration. Further, the institutions that will provide safe environment for the citizens must be strengthened,” said Vajgl.

 

US requires Haradinaj to resolve demarcation issue with Montenegro as soon as possible (CDM)

 

Kosovo PM Ramush Haradinaj has requested the USA to involve in resolving open issues in the Euro-Atlantic integration of Kosovo. During a press conference with US congressman Eliot Engel in Pristina, Haradinaj said that Kosovo “still had” outstanding issues, but that the country was committed to Euro-Atlantic integration. “We are asking for America’s help. And Kosovo will respond by improving democracy, law and order, in the fight against crime and corruption and for free Kosovo for all its citizens,” Haradinaj said. Stating that the US has a new government which is “still determining its priorities”, the US congressman said that immediately after returning to the United States, he would start working on Washington’s “involvement in the Balkans and Kosovo”. Commenting on the demarcation of the border with Montenegro, Engel said that this issue should be solved as soon as possible. “I think that demarcation is a significant issue that needs to be solved, as soon as possible. Kosovo should not be a hostage to this issue,” Engel said.

 

Hahn commends Macedonia’s progress (MIA)

 

Macedonia has made substantial progress, and now the European Commission, EU member states view more positively the developments in the country and the possibility for opening the EU-accession talks, Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations, said Monday at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Zoran Zaev. “We wish for the European Commission at the onset of 2018 to recommend a launch of the EU-accession talks and now we are more sure than in the past that the EU member states will give their consent to such recommendation. The country should run out the last kilometer of the marathon. The goal would be achieved if we open the negotiations and we are working to that effect,” Hahn said. Things are moving into the right direction but the country should keep working on crucial reforms in the spheres of security services, judiciary, public administration, Hahn said. The law on languages is a reasonable demand but it is not one of Brussels' priorities in terms of what Macedonia should accomplish on its road to the EU-integration, said Han.

The draft law on languages has entered a parliament procedure, being already adopted in a first reading under informal recommendation of the Venice Commission, but at the moment Macedonia's government should focus on identifying the priority spheres for obtaining positive recommendation from Brussels, Hahn said. PM Zaev on his part briefed on undertaken activities related to implementing the urgent reforms in the judiciary, intelligence services, full de-politicization and professionalization of the public administration. The government, he said, has been also working on advancing Macedonia's relations with its neighbors, including Greece.

In regard to the upcoming EU enlargement strategy, Hahn said all six Western Balkan countries would be included in the document, as Brussels views the region as a whole.

 

Meta met with Zaev (ATA)

 

Albania’s President Ilir Meta met on Monday with Prime Minister of Macedonia Zoran Zaev in the context of an official visit to the Republic of Macedonia. President’s press service said that during the meeting Meta and Zaev agreed on the need for Albania and Macedonia to promote economic and trade cooperation, improve energy and infrastructure links and implement joint projects part of the Corridor VIII. Meta hailed the new Macedonian government concrete commitments to improve the inter-ethnic climate and maintain positive relations with the neighboring countries. During the meeting, Meta emphasized that the bilateral relations between Albania and Macedonia are existential and decisive for the Euro-Atlantic future of the two countries. Meta expressed his confidence in Albania and Macedonia opening EU accession negotiations in 2018 and assured Zaev of Albania’s support for membership of Macedonia in the NATO.

 

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

 

Vucic's Cabinet Declines to Annex Bosnian Serb Territories (BIRN, by Srecko Latal, Filip Rudic, 21 November 2017)

 

Serbian officials have delivered another political blow to Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, explicitly rejecting his "dreams" that Serbia could annexe Republika Srpska – Bosnia's Serb-dominated entity.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's cabinet told Serbian media Tuesday that the country "does not want" to annexe Republika Srpska, RS, in one of its most explicit rejections of Bosnian Serb separatist dreams so far. Serbia's Danas magazine, citing Vucic's cabinet, reported that Serbia was "the only obstacle" to RS seceding from the rest of Bosnia. Diplomatic sources confirmed the veracity of this statement to BIRN. The declaration came in response to a controversial TV interview released by German public broadcaster Deutche Welle (DW) on Monday, in which RS president and leader of its main party, the Alliance of Independent Social democrats, SNSD, Milorad Dodik, started redrawing the map of the Balkans, adding RS and the predominantly Serb-populated northern part of Kosovo to Serbia's mainland. In the interview Dodik reiterated his well-known position that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a "failed state". However, he also said the lack of consensus among people and politicians means that an eventual referendum on the secession of RS from Bosnia, "is not on the agenda." Dodik added that the lack of support for such move in Serbia is the main obstacle to the independence of RS, adding that independence would require certain internal and external conditions to be met. However, he said he would still seek independence even with only "one promille" of chance. "Bosnia will fall apart by itself," Dodik said, towards the end of the interview. The journalists produced a map, and it was at this point that Dodik redrew the region's borders by splitting Bosnia and Kosovo, adding RS and Northern Kosovo to Serbia.

In a previous interview for DW TV, a Bosniak member of Bosnia's Presidency, Bakir Izetbegovic, said that any attempt to break Bosnia apart would be defeated, by political or military means. His statement incurred a strong reaction from Bosnian Serbs and Serbian officials.

Teaching Associate at the Belgrade Faculty of Political Sciences, Boban Stojanovic, called the statement from Vucic's cabinet "reasonable" as well as a "slap in the face" to Dodik, adding that he was surprised at how blunt it was. "I believe Dodik expected a different statement, probably a less explicit one ... But Vucic likely did not want to come into conflict with his Western partners," Stojanovic told BIRN.

 

Bosnia Marks Dayton Anniversary Amid Growing Crisis (BIRN, by Srecko Latal, 21 November 2017)

 

Twenty-two years after the Dayton peace deal, the exodus of thousands of families from Bosnia and Herzegovina is a sign of the uncertain future facing a country tormented by local divisions and international failures.

Amidst escalating political, economic and social troubles, Bosnia and Herzegovina marks the 22nd anniversary of the Dayton peace accord on Wednesday, the treaty which stopped the war but obviously failed to establish lasting peace. The anniversary comes amidst heightened local tensions, caused by the steady hardening of local politicians' positions and rhetoric, which has led to a political impasse and eventually to the blockade of country's reform agenda and EU accession process. Bosnia's troubles could escalate even further in the near future as the country awaits rulings in two highly politicised war crimes' cases against former Bosnian Serb military chief Ratko Mladic and former Bosnian Croat leader Jadranko Prlic and five others, which will be announced by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, ICTY, in the coming days. The situation in the country may also be affected by further political manoeuvres as local parties prepare for new general elections that are scheduled for October 2018. Yet it still remains unclear whether these elections will result in the establishment of new ruling coalitions and governments, since Bosnia's troubled election law currently lacks a legal mechanism for the election of the Federation House of Peoples, without which new governments cannot be established in the Federation and at the state level. This problem with the election law is the culmination of Bosnia's creeping political crisis, which has - 22 years after the signing of the Dayton peace treaty - brought the country to the very edge of a new uncertainty.

 

Bosnia’s ups and downs

On this day, 22 years ago, citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina celebrated the signing of the Dayton agreement which finally stopped the 1992-95 war. Psychically and mentally wounded, most people came out of the war believing that the worst was over and hoping that the only way was up. Shocked by the horrors unleashed by the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, humiliated by their own failure to prevent it, anxious about the Balkan’s uncertain outlook, and aware of the past and possible future troubles which this situation had brought to its doorsteps, the EU and US scrambled to provide a financial, diplomatic and military framework that helped rebuild and stabilise the country. Under international patronage, Bosnia was cleaned up and rehabilitated. Yet the country's new facade was built on weak foundations, partially because of persisting local divisions, partially because of mistakes made by its international overseers. As soon as the EU and US stopped dealing with Bosnia’s daily political, economic and social issues at the end of 2006, these weaknesses were revealed and then further utilised by local elites. Step by step, the country's Bosniak, Croat and Serb leaders hardened their conflicting centralist, autonomist and separatist agendas, steadily regressing to the positions held by their predecessors before, during, and immediately after the war. And so, gradually, Bosnia became an international synonym for political crisis, or the Balkans’ "black hole" (or worse) as some international diplomats and local musicians called it. One Dayton anniversary after another found the country in increasingly bad shape, while experts and analysts struggled to explain why and how the crisis one year was worse than the one the previous year, and why the next year would probably be even worse than the current one.  And so now, 22 years after signing of the Dayton peace accord, some old and many new problems remain.

 

‘At least there is no shooting’

The current international scene itself is much more precarious and complicated than three decades ago, with a dangerous escalation of tensions in and/or among the US, EU, Russia, China, the two Koreas, Turkey, the Gulf states and the Middle East. The growing influence of Russia, Turkey and Arab countries is enabled by the steady weakening of the presence of the EU and US, which now show a disinterest and indolent attitude towards Bosnia and the rest of the Balkans that is similar to the late 1980s. Meanwhile, Bosnia's own political scene has effectively collapsed. For months, the ruling coalitions at the state level and in the Federation entity have been unable or unwilling to reach a compromise over pretty much anything. The ruling coalition in Bosnia's other entity, Republika Srpska, still exists, but it seems too preoccupied with servicing its ruling politicians and fighting opposition parties to notice that it is slowly but certainly stifling and bankrupting the entity and its population. Deepening ethno-political and ideological differences among key parties have been augmented in recent years and months by growing personal animosities and mistrust among party leaders, which eventually led to the current complete deadlock on almost all the country’s administrative levels. This situation, combined with widespread clientelism, corruption and brain-drain, has affected all walks of life, leading to the deterioration of living standards and the decomposition of health, education, social, pension and other public services. Thousands of people - including entire families - have been reported to have been leaving the country en masse, while those unable to leave keep struggling to adjust to the failing system - rather than improve or change it - thus inadvertently contributing to the overall system failure. And so, 22 years after Dayton, Bosnia's self-centred politicians, biased media, quarrelling intellectuals and inactive citizens have almost completely reverted to the political and ethnic divisions, radical rhetoric and populist initiatives which marked the breakup of former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. Whether Bosnia and Herzegovina will witness some similar scenario to what happened then or not will depend on the willingness and capability of both the local and international community to move the country and its people away from the dangerous precipice on which it now stands. Meanwhile, the axiom "at least there is no shooting", which has been adopted by many locals and internationals alike, seems to be one of the last things still worth celebrating on the anniversary of Dayton.

Srecko Latal is a journalist, editor and analyst who has been covering the Balkans since the 1990s.

The opinions expressed in the Comment section are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.