LOCAL PRESS
Vucic: We ask that Oliver Ivanovic be released (Radio Serbia)
Outgoing Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has stated at a press conference that it is very important for stability and peace in Kosovo and Metohija and mutual trust that Oliver Ivanovic is released and called on the EU High Representative Catherine Ashton to get involved in the resolution of this problem. Ivanovic’s arrest was carried out by the EU bodies and that is why we request a clear explanation, Vucic said. He wondered how was it possible for someone to be charged with committing an allegedly serious crime 14 years ago, that this person freely moves throughout Kosovo and Metohija, and that this person is arrested on the eve of the elections.
Odalovic: Elections in Kosovo according to the 2012 model (RTS)
Outgoing Secretary General of the Serbian government Veljko Odalovic has told the morning broadcast of Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS) that early parliamentary elections will be conducted in Kosovo and Metohija according to the model from the previous elections in May 2012, adding that initial agreement on this was reached in Brussels. Odalovic recalled that the entire election procedure was conducted in 2012, with the assistance of the OSCE, at 90 polling stations, where more than 35,000 citizens were able to exercise their right to vote. He said that not a single incident was registered at the time. Speaking about preparations for the elections, Odalovic says he hopes the Republic Electoral Commission will work smoothly since there are not too much political tensions, over which he is sure that the procedure will be conducted completely and in accordance with the law. Odalovic assesses as very important that there is no delay in carrying out state affairs during the election campaign and elections, adding the government will continue to hold regular sessions despite the technical mandate so everything planned would be completed. According to him, the screening within the EU integration process will commence next week, while the dialogue with Pristina will resume on 12 February.
Arrests cause unnecessary uncertainty (Tanjug)
Deputy Secretary of the Republican Electoral Commission Veljko Odalovic said that arrests of leaders of Serbian parties cause unnecessary uncertainty among the Serbs in the province, but this will not prevent the staging of early parliamentary elections in the province. Addressing reporters after the session of the Republic Electoral Commission, Odalovic noted that arrests were made ahead of the re-run vote for mayor of northern Kosovska Mitrovica after which the Union of Serb Municipalities was supposed to be formed in keeping with the Brussels agreement on the normalization of the Belgrade-Pristina relations. “In case someone wants to prevent this, they cannot be sincere in the talks in Brussels and they do not have good intentions,” Odalovic said and expressed the belief that the European Commission will not support this. He reiterated that one of the candidates for the mayor of northern Kosovska Mitrovica was recently murdered and one more candidate was arrested, while the situation concerning the former mayor is getting increasingly complicated. “I do not see why anyone would do it at a moment like this,” Odalovic said and added that it should be examined whether there is some kind of background behind this. “This is causing embitterment, uncertainty and alarm among citizens,” he said and added that the government will do all it can to call citizens to peace and composure so that they may use their voting rights adequately. He noted that the message needs to be addressed to EULEX and their investigative bodies as well which are in most cases the executors.
Rakic and Ivanovic mayoral candidates for Kosovska Mitrovica (Novosti)
The Serbian (Srpska) Civic Initiative has nominated Goran Rakic for the mayor of Kosovska Mitrovica, while the SDP Civic Initiative nominated Oliver Ivanovic. The candidacies were submitted to the OSCE representatives in Kosovska Mitrovica. The mayoral elections for northern Kosovska Mitrovica will be repeated on 23 February, while two Albanian parties, PDK and LDK, will also have their candidates. “The election process was not brought into question and one thing is certain, northern Kosovska Mitrovica residents will recognize the real candidate and will not allow an Albanian to be their future mayor,” Rakic said. Following the meeting of the SDP municipal board and “upon the requests of all Kosovska Mitrovica residents,” Ivanovic’s candidacy was also submitted last night. “This candidacy is proof that Oliver Ivanovic is innocent and if hadn’t submitted the candidacy it would have meant he fears this unfounded and shameful charges,” the SDO press service stated.
Dikovic and Farina discuss security situation in Kosovo (Blic)
Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Army, General Ljubisa Dikovic and KFOR Commander, General-Major Salvatore Farina discussed in Pristina the security situation in Kosovo and the ground safety zone. As the Serbian Defense Ministry announced, further cooperation of the Serbian Army and international forces was discussed as well. Dikovic and Farina had talks at the meeting of the Joint Commission for implementation of the Military-Technical Agreement.
Conde: New rapporteur for Kosovo (Tanjug)
Spain’s Agustin Conde has been elected as the new rapporteur of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) for Kosovo and Metohija. The fact that Conde is coming from a country that has not recognized Kosovo’s independence, members of the Serbian parliamentary delegation believe that the PACE has demonstrated full respect of the Council of Europe’s status neutrality regarding Kosovo and Metohija. Aleksandra Djurovic, the head of the Serbian parliamentary delegation in the PACE, said that the delegation is very pleased that, for the first time ever, an assembly member from a country that has not recognized Kosovo’s independence has been elected as the rapporteur for Kosovo. “Considering the fact that 34 out of 43 CoE member countries have recognized Kosovo, and that 13 have not, as well as the fact that Kosovo lobbyists were very active in their support for the rival candidate from France, this is an exceptional success for the Serbian delegation,” Djurovic said. Conde has been elected by a two-thirds majority in a secret vote at a meeting of the PACE Political Committee, said a statement from the Serbian parliament.
Ljajic: Serbia can’t lose (B92)
The verdict in the process before the International Court of Justice in The Hague on Croatia’s genocide lawsuit and Serbia’s countersuit is expected in one year, Serbian outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Rasim Ljajic told radio B92, confident that Serbia cannot lose. “I am more than convinced that we cannot lose that dispute, and that Croatia cannot prove that genocide has taken place,” Ljajic said. He reiterated his belief that Croatia lacked the political courage to withdraw the lawsuit. The political leadership did have the will for that, but feared public reactions to a withdrawal of the lawsuit, he explained. “Serbia was fully prepared to withdraw the lawsuit unconditionally, but the other side was not ready to do the same,” Ljajic said. The trial before the International Court of Justice will last a month, and Croatia will present its arguments first, after which Serbia will do the same, Ljajic said.
Tadic leaves DS (RTS)
The honorary president of the Democratic Party Boris Tadic has submitted his resignation to this post and left the DS over disagreement with the policy of the current leadership. Tadic said he can’t accept that the current DS leadership is going to the polls with a negative heritage of that party, which, according to him, symbolizes Zoran Zivkovic over numerous affairs that followed the work of the former premier.
REGIONAL PRESS
Radmanovic received Serbian Ambassador to B&H (Fena)
Nebojsa Radmanovic, a member of the B&H Presidency, received on Wednesday the newly-appointed Serbian Ambassador to B&H Stanimir Vukicevic, wishing him a successful term of office in the interest of both states. Pointing to good relations between the two countries, the officials exchanged opinions and information about the current political situation in B&H and Serbia, regional cooperation and EU integration, Fena reported, adding that the officials expect even better cooperation between the neighbors in the EU integration process. Radmanovic underlined once again the great importance of opening EU accession talks and qualified it as a big step for the future of Serbia, and the region as a whole. “At the moment, Serbia is ahead of other regional countries on the EU path which could be an incentive for other countries,” Radmanovic said, voicing confidence that B&H will soon follow in Serbia’s footsteps along the EU path. He expects that on that road the state will exchange necessary experience, offer assistance and support to each other in the interest of the Serb people and all other peoples and citizens of B&H and Serbia.
Georgievski: There is need of a compromise with Greece (Utrisnki Vesnik)
“Without a fast compromise with Greece Macedonia cannot hope for any economic progress, democratization, stable inter-ethnic relations, membership in the EU and NATO,” Utrinski Vesnik quoted Macedonian former prime minister and leader of the VMRO-NP Ljubco Georgievski as having said. According to him, the compromise with Greece is of key importance for country’s progress. “Over the last twenty years we have been constantly speaking about how we are right, while Greece is wrong and we missed to realize that this became an official position of the EU and NATO,” Georgievski said.
It is no business of the U.S. to interfere in name issue (Nova Makedonija)
“It is no business of the U.S. to interfere in the solution of the name dispute between Skopje and Athens,” Nova Makedonija has quoted Ben Rhodes, Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications and Speechwriting, as having said. In Rhodes’s words, NATO will be one of the topics tabled for discussion during U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to Brussels.
INTERNATIONAL PRESS
Serbia to hold early polls on March 16 (AFP, 29 January 2014)
President Tomislav Nikolic on Wednesday said Serbia will hold early parliamentary polls on March 16, as the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) seeks to capitalise on support after starting EU membership talks.
BELGRADE: President Tomislav Nikolic on Wednesday said Serbia will hold early parliamentary polls on March 16, as the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) seeks to capitalise on support after starting EU membership talks.
“I have just signed the decree to dissolve parliament, paving the way for parliamentary elections to be held on March 16,” Nikolic said during a brief ceremony broadcast live on state television.
“A lot of work is ahead of us, among them painful and tough reforms aimed at improving the lives of our citizens,” he added.
On January 21, Serbia set off on a long road towards the EU entry, which Belgrade officials hoped could come by 2020.
On Sunday, the SNS, the senior partner in Serbia’s ruling coalition, called for early polls to be held.
The SNS leader, powerful Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, told supporters that “the time has come to give account of what we have done.”
Analysts say the SNS wants to build on its growing popularity after beginning the accession talks with Brussels.
“All elections, especially early ones, are a blow to the economy and the process of reforms,” said economic analyst Ljubomir Madzar.
“The only positive effect could be gaining of a strong political force in power,” he added.
The latest surveys show that the SNS could count on the support of 48 per cent of voters if elections were held now.
The second-largest party, the opposition Democratic Party (DS), stands at around 13 per cent in the polls.
Trailing further behind is the Socialist Party of Serbia, a junior partner in the ruling coalition, with 11 per cent.
Since taking power, the government has significantly improved relations with long-time foe Kosovo, which has in turn paved the way for Serbia to start talks on EU membership.
The SNS and the Socialists joined forces after general elections in May 2012, which saw a defeat of the pro-European Democratic party whose leader Boris Tadic lost presidential race to Nikolic.
Elections will stall necessary reforms
But strongly trumpeted economic reforms have failed to gain ground, prompting the resignation of Economy Minister Sasa Radulovic last week.
Radulovic said his move was motivated by a lack of government support for a set of laws aimed at cutting down public administration jobs, estimated at almost half of Serbia’s work force of 1.7 million.
Economic analyst Milan Culibrk said that, despite wide popularity, Dacic’s cabinet failed to fulfil any of its promises given at the start of its mandate in July 2012.
“Although urgent measures to cut down the budget deficit were announced, the 2014 deficit will be the highest ever,” Culibrk said.
“Instead of radical cuts in the bureaucracy, there are still more than 700,000 people employed in the public sector,” he said.
The public deficit has been increasing for the last four years and public debt exceeds 60 per cent of GDP.
Economist Sasa Djogovic said the elections “will further delay reforms.”
“Another six months will be lost because of the elections… and we will pay a higher price for necessary reforms,” he warned.
Serbia has also failed to complete privatisation and put its debt-ridden public companies in order.
Its economy suffered another blow earlier this month as ratings agency Fitch downgraded its status from “BB-” to “B+” highlighting weak political will to introduce the unpopular structural reforms.
The unemployment rate has reached 20.1 per cent in the Balkan country with a population of 7.1 million and the average monthly salary is estimated at 400 euros (US$540).
Although many in the country estimate that normalisation of relations with breakaway Kosovo — a key EU condition for further accession steps — will be the main stumbling block in the talks, 51 per cent of citizens support membership in the 28-member bloc, compared to 22 per cent against.
68 per cent of 1,038 people polled in a December survey conducted by Serbia’s EU integration office said economic reforms are crucial for the Balkan country’s future.
Serbia Progressives Demand Probes of Opponents’ ‘Crimes’ (Balkan Insight, 30 January 2014)
With early parliamentary elections in Serbia looming, the ruling Progressives have demanded probes into the ‘crimes’ of the ex-economy minister and the ex-mayor of Belgrade.
Serbia’s governing Progressive Party has demanded an investigation into “numerous criminal acts” committed by former Belgrade Mayor Dragan Djilas and former Economy Minister Sasa Radulovic.
Djilas is the leader of the opposition Democrat Party while Radulovic is not a member of a party.
“The investigation should deal with criminal activity of Dragan Djilas in Belgrade, as well as acts committed by Radulovic, pursuing bankruptcy and destroying companies and factories,” the party statement said, not revealing exactly what either man is believed to have done.
The call came a day after Radulovic’s resignation letter accused Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, the leader of the Progressives, of deliberately blocking the reform of the labour, privatization and bankruptcy laws.
Radulovic was appointed Minister of Economy on September 2 following a reshuffle of the government, replacing Mladjan Dinkic.
The Progressives also say they want all the accusations that Radulovic made in his letter to be investigated.
Djilas was Mayor of Belgrade from 2008 until 2012. In the May 2012 local elections he was again elected mayor, but fell after the Progressives put together a majority in the city assembly in November.
The Progressives’ request also comes after President Tomislav Nikolic called early parliamentary elections for March 16, along with local elections in Belgrade.
In the general elections, Vucic is widely expected to capitalise on the expected victory of the Progressives by taking the post of Prime Minister from Socialist leader Ivica Dacic.
An early general election (The Economist, by T.J., 29 January 2014)
AT LAST, they are off. Tomislav Nikolic (pictured), Serbia’s president, today called an early general election. It will be held on March 16th. Barring a political earthquake, the result will see Aleksandar Vucic, the leader of Serbia’s largest party in parliament, enthroned as prime minister. According to one poll, published this week, 42.1% will vote for Mr Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), 13.9% for the opposition Democratic Party (DS) and 10.5% for the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).
Serbia’s last election was held in July 2012. At that time Mr Nikolic led the SNS but after his election as president that job passed to Mr Vucic. The results of the 2012 poll however meant that although the SNS was the biggest party it had to enter a coalition with the SPS, headed by Ivica Dacic, who thus managed to secure for himself the job of prime minister.
Until last September Belgrade’s mayor was Dragan Djilas, the leader of the DS. His removal signaled the beginning of the unofficial election campaign but until January 26th Mr Vucic publicly prevaricated about whether he wanted to go to the polls. Though he was deputy prime minister in the now outgoing government he is considered the most powerful man in the country.
On January 26th Mr Vucic secured complete control over this party when he was re-elected as its leader with a unanimous vote. The national election now enables Mr Vucic, who is probably at the peak of his popularity, to get his hands on all levers of government and the economy.
Mr Vucic has led a high profile anti-corruption campaign, which has led to trials, though no major conviction yet. On January 21st the government was boosted by the start of negotiations to enter the European Union. It has also, under the aegis of the EU, successfully negotiated with Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008.
Mr Vucic is going into battle as the DS is in disarray. Ever since its defeat in 2012 it has been plagued by infighting. On January 18th at a party meeting Boris Tadic, its former leader and Serbia’s former president, tried to stage a comeback and overthrow Mr Djilas. He was defeated. On January 28th Serbia’s media reported that he was to leave the party and head up a new coalition of small parties called the Democratic Front. He has denied that this has happened, but not that it is about to happen.
The real problem for opposition parties is that mostly they have no new or policies or major differences from the SNS and, in the words of a senior DS source, the only thing that counts today is whether you are for against Mr Vucic.
Many are angry and fed up with politicians, believing that many of them have used their positions to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else. Mr Vucic has capitalised on this. A former extreme nationalist he now talks of battling corruption with as much zeal as he championed incorporating much of Bosnia and Croatia into a Greater Serbia during the wars of 1990s.
The SNS has not been in power long enough for large numbers of its officials to be corrupted. But the resignation on January 24th of Sasa Radulovic, the minister of the economy, could be an indication that things are changing. He accused Mr Vucic of impeding reforms, blasted non-transparent government contracts and secretive dealings with Arabs, Chinese, Russians and Belarussians. He said that ministers worked in fear and pointed at “family ties” linking people in one alleged corruption scandal and Mr Vucic’s office. Even so, at the moment Serbs seem to want more of Mr Vucic not less.
Repeating past mistakes (European Voice, by Kurt Bassuener, 30 January 2014)
Democratization Policy Council
The European External Action Service (EEAS) seems intent on repeating mistakes in Kosovo that the European Union collectively made years ago in Bosnia (“EEAS looks to draw back from Kosovo” and “EU should not bow to pressure from Kosovo,” 23-29 January). While a recalibration and significant slimming of EULEX, the EU’s rule-of-law mission in Kosovo, is certainly in order, it sounds as if Catherine Ashton’s office is targeting what EU member-state diplomats on the ground, and many objective observers, regard as the most valuable element of the mission: international criminal investigators, prosecutors and judges.
It is telling that Ashton’s negotiating partner, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi, pilloried by local political opponents for alleged corruption, is so intent on getting EULEX out of the country. It ought to give the EU pause before curtailing its capability to investigate and prosecute official malfeasance. Indeed, there are strong arguments to strengthen this element of the mission while cutting elsewhere.
The case of Bosnia should be instructive. In 2009, the contracts of executive international personnel in the Office of the Prosecutor and the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina (which has specialised chambers for war crimes and organised crime and corruption) began to expire. Much time was wasted in the vain hope that the local authorities (which had every reason to wish them gone) would extend their tenure. It ultimately came down to whether the international high representative would impose a three-year extension, for which there was considerable support among international actors. But inter-party negotiations intervened. The United States retreated, in the vain hope of resuscitating these talks. The international high representative (who was also the EU’s special representative at the time) refused to take the initiative. In the end, only two countries in the free world – Canada and Turkey – advocated an extension of the mandate of the specialists on organised crime and corruption. Hardly a glorious day for the EU’s promotion of rule of law. The results have been readily apparent: no major investigations for official malfeasance since the departure of these personnel. So there is a clear cause and effect.
One hopes that the EU’s member states consider their own self-interest when reviewing the EEAS proposal and act accordingly. Clientitis and the path of least resistance are never sound bases for policy.
Market Report, “Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q1 2014”, Published (SBWIRE, 28 January 2014)
Fast Market Research recommends “Bosnia-Herzegovina Business Forecast Report Q1 2014” from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA — The domestic political environment remains heavily divided along ethnic lines, stunting structural reform and weighing on the country’s EU membership ambitions. Increased international pressure may push the government to approve some long-delayed reforms, but progress is set to remain slow.
The economy is set to return to positive growth after an estimated 0.9% contraction in 2012, led by falling household spending and external demand. A recovery in both these areas – especially ex -ports – will help drive modest growth of 0.6% in 2013, with this set to rise to 2.1% the following year.
The government’s Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF will continue to anchor fiscal policy and is likely to ensure that a budget for 2014 is approved at both the entity and state levels before the end of the year.
Major Forecast changes
Latest inflation figures have prompted us to lower our estimate for annual average inflation in 2013, to 0.8%, from a previous 1.8%. We have also lowered our average forecast for 2014 to 2.0%, from a previous 3.0%, though our core view for accelerating price growth as the economic recovery gathers momentum remains in place.
Key risks to outlook
The country’s first post-war census was finally carried out in October 2013, an important achievement that nonetheless generates new risks given the potential effect the results could have on the country’s complex power-sharing agreements.
Macedonia Govt Accused of Hiding Debts (BIRN, by Sinisa Jakov Marusic, 30 January 2014)
Opposition MP said the government was pushing Macedonia ever deeper into the red while hiding the size of the debts it was running up.
Opposition Social Democrats on Wednesday in parliament accused the government of Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski of burying the real size of the country’s debt.
“If we take the data from the last [government] report on public debt management for 2012, we will see that public debt is over 3.3 billion euro, which is 45 per cent of GDP,” MP Marijanco Nikolov said.
He said this meant that the government had breached its own limit, of not going pushing debt over 40 per cent of GDP.
The opposition MP accused the Finance Ministry of hiding the real figures from the public. “Ever since 2009 the Finance Ministry has not published any data on the size of the public debt [on its website]. The published data refer only to the debt of central government, which is only part of the public debt,” Nikolov added.
“Over the past five years, the debt of central government alone has practically doubled,” he continued, citing Finance Ministry data to note that a debt of 1.3 billion euro in 2008 had grown into to 2.7 billion euro by the end of 2013.
AN MP from the ruling VMRO DPMNE party, Vlatko Gjorcev, denied that the government was hiding any data, accusing the opposition of being selective in presenting facts.
“Why do you ignore that GDP has grown from 4.8 billion euro in 2005 to 8.1 billion euro and that exports in the last few years have doubled?” Gjorcev asked.
The opposition also accused the government of transferring its debts to state-owned public enterprises – and then writing off millions of euros in debts from the companies.
Opposition MPs calculated that only in 2013, the ruling parties passed laws transferring 720 million euro in debt to state-owned enterprises, while since 2008, parliament had passed laws scrapping some 220 million euro in debts owed by state enterprises.
“You have been hiding and artificially reducing the debt only to be able to show that Macedonia is less indebted country… and take more loans,” Nikolov said.
According to available data, Macedonia ran up a fresh debt of 313 million euro in 2013 in an attempt to fill gaps in the budget.
