LOCAL PRESS
Fule, Mogherini meet with Western Balkan foreign ministers (RTS/Tanjug)
Serbian First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic participated in the meeting of foreign ministers from Western Balkan countries with outgoing EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule and future European High Representative Federica Mogherini on the margins of the 69th UN General Assembly session in New York. The main topics of the meeting hosted by B&H Foreign Minister Zlatko Lagumdzija covered the improvement of regional cooperation and European integration process, the Serbian Foreign Ministry announced. The foreign ministers discussed the possibilities of realization of joint projects that would contribute to establishment of stronger economic ties in the region in keeping with the conclusions of the recently staged Conference of Western Balkans States in Berlin. According to the statement, the talks also covered the preparations for the regional conference in Belgrade in October, the agenda of which will include economic administration and infrastructural connections.
Dacic holds series of talks with foreign officials (Tanjug)
Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic conferred with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin on the margins of the 69th UN General Assembly session in New York. The two countries’ foreign ministers discussed Serbia’s OSCE chairmanship in 2015, the Serbian Foreign Ministry announced. Dacic underscored that Serbia nurtures a responsible approach to the chairmanship and intends to be unbiased and objective during its mandate. The country will try to make sure that all its activities contribute to the OSCE interests in the best possible way, he said. The two ministers also agreed that bilateral and multilateral cooperation between Serbia and Ukraine should continue, reads the statement. Dacic met with Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel García-Margallo y Marfil who reiterated that Spain supports Serbia’s position on the Kosovo issue. Dacic met with B&H Foreign Minister Zlatko Lagumdzija and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. All three ministers voiced interest for deepening cooperation of the three countries. They also examined the possibility for the prime ministers of B&H, Turkey and Serbia to meet in Belgrade by the end of the year in order to discuss concrete forms of cooperation in the economy.
Vulin: There was misuse of money in Kosovo and Metohija (Blic)
Serbian Minister for Labor and Social Welfare Issues Aleksandar Vulin has pointed out that the state will put an end to all misuses of state money in Kosovo and Metohija. “The police conducted an investigation when I was the head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija. We submitted all documents requested from us and I didn’t interfere in that case any further. There was certainly misuse of money in Kosovo, but this must not imply that aid for Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija should stop; certainly not. Aid, however, should be distributed in a more precise and just way,” Vulin told Blic. He said an additional problem is in the law itself. “You have cases where people receive welfare but at the same time have real estates and conduct businesses, and for example, everybody in Kosovska Mitrovica knows this. If we want to stop this practice, it is necessary that we amend the Law on Welfare Protection, and we will do this,” said Vulin. In comment to the action of re-examining disability pensions where the accomplice-turned-state-witness Ljubisa Buha Cume, who has been receiving a disability pension since 1994, is also found under scrutiny, and in response to the question as to whether he will be called once again by the commission since he didn’t appear the first time, Minister Vulin said he would be called once again. “If he doesn’t appear then, he will be left without disability. I doubt his standard of living will suffer without those 23,000 dinars, but it is unusual for a person to receive a disability pension and to have all that. We will not stop here. It is not enough for him to say that he doesn’t need that money. We will see how he received this disability pension. On this basis, Ljubisa Buha has so far cost the state between 40,000 and 50,000 euros. Well, this is very serious… We must clear this once and for all, in his and in any other case,” said Vulin.
Imamovic: Sandzak to be organized as South Tyrol (Politika)
The vice president and deputy of the Sandzak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) Enis Imamovic opines that Sandzak should have a high degree of autonomy according to the model of South Tyrol. Following the visit to South Tyrol where they discussed “cooperation on defining the autonomy of Sandzak as a cross-border European region between Serbia and Montenegro”, he said that a high degree of autonomy is the best way for “rich people in Sandzak to live freely and to achieve their rights and, in line with the Constitution, domestic laws and international norms, to administer the system in which they live”. “If autonomy, according to the high representatives of the Serbian authorities, is a good model for the Serbs in Kosovo, it could also be for all residents of Sandzak,” Imamovic told Politika. “As we could notice, the topic of autonomy is close to President Tomislav Nikolic, Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, First Deputy Prime Minister Ivica Dacic and other high officials and institutions seeking autonomy for the Union of Serb Municipalities in Kosovo. If this is a good model for the Serbs in Kosovo, I don’t see why it shouldn’t be for all residents in Sandzak as well,” said Imamovic. He added that Sandzak doesn’t advocate for regions to be defined according to the ethnic principle as it is proposed for the Union of Serb Municipalities, because Sandzak is a “multi-ethnic region where Bosniaks, Albanians, Serbs, Montenegrins and others live in very good relations”. Imamovic says that he doesn’t see one single bad aspect of the model of South Tyrol, noting that the budget of this province is five billion euros per 550,000 inhabitants, while the average wage is 35,000 euros. “We have the right, need and obligation to wish the same thing, we aspire to that and we request this for the residents of Sandzak,” said Imamovic. He assessed that the condition of democracy in Serbia is not at a sufficiently high level as it is in Great Britain where citizens were enabled to say what they want, thing and feel. “If you mention autonomy here that is defined by the Constitution and the entire Serbian political elite and media jump up and break your spine,” Imamovic told Politika, recalling that Sandzak residents voted for autonomy at the 1991 referendum.
Borchardt underlines good cooperation with Belgrade (Tanjug)
Head of the EU Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) Bernd Borchardt confirmed that he is leaving office, and underlined that good cooperation was established between the authorities in Belgrade, EULEX and Pristina institutions during his mandate. In an interview to Tanjug, Borchardt said that he is leaving EULEX by the end of the week, adding that the decision regarding his successor will be made in Brussels while his deputy Joelle Vachter will serve as Acting Head of Mission. Noting that he visited Belgrade on several occasions during his term in office, the outgoing EULEX head underlined the good cooperation from the Serbian officials and specifically pointed out that exceptional cooperation was established between the Pristina institutions, EULEX and Belgrade authorities. We have also developed active cooperation with the War Crimes Prosecutor’s Office in Belgrade, to which we provided assistance in the identification of witnesses and other facts relevant for certain cases, said Borchardt. Asked if the prolonged formation of the government in Pristina will also postpone the constitution of a specialist court for war crimes in Kosovo, Borchardt pointed out that the previous Kosovo Assembly had already taken the first step by reaching the decision to set up such a court. He added that the investigation into allegations contained in the report by Council of Europe (CoE) rapporteur Dick Marty is not a task for EULEX but rather for the independent Special Investigative Task Force, and stressed that EULEX provides support to the investigation team in its activities in Kosovo and Metohija. Borchardt said that religious extremism poses a great challenge to many countries across Europe but that it is not a criminal act in Kosovo, just as in the majority of European countries. In my opinion, the problem of religious extremism should be addressed by the Kosovo authorities and religious leaders, said Borchardt, adding that EULEX takes over when religious extremists commit a crime. Borchardt underlined that he and the 2,000 EULEX officials have helped promote the rule of law in Kosovo and Metohija by taking part in the resolution of around 2,500 criminal cases. He also noted that he is satisfied with his contribution to the implementation of Belgrade-Pristina agreement.
REGIONAL PRESS
Tihic: Serious health condition (Dnevni avaz)
The health condition of the SDA leader Sulejman Tihic is very serious, he is under intense medical supervision on the Clinic for Anesthesiology and Resuscitation (KCUS). As it is known, the SDA leader has been struggling for years with severe disease, colon cancer, which had metastasized to his lungs and brain. After surgery in Germany, his condition was considers to be better and more stable. Three months ago, he was urgently admitted to KCUS where he was hospitalized. For months, he is not active in the political party and is absent from political life of B&H.
Closing arguments in the trial of Radovan Karadzic to commence on 29 September (Fena)
The closing arguments in the trial of Radovan Karadzic, former president of the Republika Srpska (RS), are due to commence on Monday, 29 September at 9:00 until 16:00 in Courtroom I.
The parties’ closing arguments are expected to be held from Monday, 29 September to Thursday, 2 October and will be followed by the rebuttal and rejoinder arguments on Tuesday, 7 October.
Initially indicted on 25 July 1995, Karadzic is charged with genocide, crimes against humanity, and violations of the laws or customs of war committed in Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1992 and 1995. He was transferred into the Tribunal’s custody on 30 July 2008 and his trial commenced on 26 October 2009. The Prosecution case was closed on 25 May 2012 after calling 195 witnesses to testify in person. The Trial Chamber called one witness. The Defense case commenced on 16 October 2012 and was declared closed on 1 May 2014 after calling 238 witnesses. Since its establishment, the Tribunal has indicted 161 persons for serious violations of humanitarian law committed on the territory of the former Yugoslavia between 1991 and 2001. Proceedings against 141 persons have been concluded.
DUI Leader Ahmeti holds meeting with Peter Due (Kanal 5/Sitel/MTV1/MIA)
DUI leader Ali Ahmeti held a meeting on Thursday with Peter Due, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Balkans representative. Ahmeti and Due discussed the situation in the region, the political situation in Macedonia, and the country’s road to EU and NATO integration. At the meeting, the DUI leader focused on the UN and mediator Matthew Nimetz’s role in the efforts for a solution to the name issue. The dispute, as Ahmeti said, is keeping Macedonia away from Brussels and causes problems for its Euro-Atlantic perspective, which sparks dissatisfaction and despair among Macedonia’s citizens. Also, he underlined the need for more expressed and frequent activity of the UN because, in his view, the problem should be solved with a proactive and intensive approach.
INTERNATIONAL PRESS
War Veterans Give Croatia Government Cyrillic Ultimatum (BIRN, by Josip Ivanovic, 24 September 2014)
Veterans said all bilingual signs in Croatian and Serb Cyrillic must be removed from Vukovar or government politicians will be not be welcome at the annual commemoration of the town’s wartime fall.
The Headquarters for the Defence of Croatian Vukovar, a group led by veterans which has staged a campaign against the installation of bilingual signs on official buildings in the wartime flashpoint town, said on Tuesday that former fighters had sent a warning letter to the country’s leaders telling them to act before the upcoming annual commemoration.
The letter warned President Ivo Josipovic, Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic and speaker of parliament Josip Leki that they “will not be welcome” at the upcoming commemoration of the 23rd anniversary of Vukovar’s capture by the Serb-led Yugoslav People’s Army on November 18 if they do not remove the bilingual signs.
The move came after six anti-Cyrillic campaigners were arrested for smashing the controversial signs on Tuesday in the latest outbreak of unrest over the issue in Vukovar, although the Headquarters denied any involvement.
The mayor of Vukovar, Ivan Penava, a member of the main opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party, also criticised the government for the problems caused by the installation of the bilingual signs.
“It is obvious that the move that was made with those signs was very bad. I believe it is bad for the Republic of Croatia and I am 100 per cent sure that it is bad for Vukovar,” said Penava.
Croatia’s minorities law says that ethnic minorities are entitled to the official use of their language and script in areas where they make up more than a third of the population – as Serbs do in Vukovar.
Parliamentary speaker Leko, a member of the ruling Social Democratic Party, criticised the latest attempts to remove the signs, saying such actions flouted democratic standards.
“We have to fight for those standards, and to keep up social dialogue and the respect for laws,” said Leko.
Headquarters activists have been intermittently taking down the bilingual signs since they were first put up last year, arguing that it is too sensitive to introduce Cyrillic in Vukovar, which was besieged and destroyed by Belgrade’s forces during the war.
After staging a series of street protests, the Headquarters launched a campaign in November 2013 for a referendum on reducing minority rights, which would effectively stop the introduction of Cyrillic in Vukovar.
Within two weeks, it had collected over 650,000 signatures, sufficient to trigger a referendum. But in August this year, Croatia’s constitutional court ruled the referendum question unconstitutional, scuppering the Headquarters’ initiative.
However the Headquarters has since announced it will take its case to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg.
Tuesday’s letter to the authorities, which was sent after a joint meeting of the Headquarters and the Coordinating Operational Team, an organisation supported by 382 veterans and victims organisation, also urged that the government intervenes to secure the release of a veteran called Veljko Maric, who is in jail in Serbia.
Maric was sentenced to 12 years imprisonment in September 2011 in Belgrade for wartime crimes against Serb civilians in 1991 in the village of Rastovac in central Croatia.
The letter urged the country’s political leaders to “take all political, legal and diplomatic steps” to secure Maric’s release, arguing that “Serbian application of universal jurisprudence over Croatian citizens is absurd”.
Bosnia Herzegovina confirmed the credit rating to Bosnia and Herzegovina; B with Stable Outlook (Balkans.com, 24 September 2014)
International rating agency Standard and Poor’s confirmed the credit rating to Bosnia and Herzegovina, B with Stable Outlook.
In the explanation of this agency, it is mentioned that the rating factors have remained unchanged. Standard&Poor’s thinks that the floods that happened this year could bring about a lower economic growth and deterioration of the country’s foreign debt and fiscal position. However, it is expected that Bosnia and Herzegovina will continue to receive a significant international support to finance its deficit.
Standard&Poor’s also mentions that the banking sector is well capitalized, and that NPLs (non-performing loans) are increasing slightly as a consequence of the floods and their impact on households and corporate sector.
Analysts of this agency say that the credit rating could be lowered if increased uncertainty in the foreign debt financing or failure in meeting the conditions of the International Monetary Fund were observed. The rating could be decreased by more than one degree if there were delays of repayments to official creditors.
Increase of credit rating could be considered in case of better cooperation between the Entities and improvement of their relations with state institutions, which would gradually enable reform implementation which would not rely on international pressure and policy conditionality. This would strengthen the business environment and pave the way for sustainable growth and better external position.
Macedonia Ruling Party Threatens Early Election (BIRN, by Sinisa Jakov Marusic, 24 September 2014)
If the opposition does not end its boycott of parliament soon, Macedonia’s ruling party is considering holding fresh elections in November.
The ruling VMRO DPMNE party is mulling fresh general elections this November, the coordinator of the party’s legislators, Ilija Dimovski, told the media.
“Time will tell whether elections will be held only for the vacant 31 seats of the opposition, or for all the 123 seats in parliament,” Dimovski said on Monday.
“Deadlines are approaching and there has to be an end to the political crisis. There is no space for calculations, or parliament will be pushed against a wall,” he added.
The opposition Social Democratic Party, SDSM rebuffed the idea as counter-productive, insisting on a resumption of political talks.
“It is obvious that VMRO DPMNE does not want to solve the political crisis. This will only deepen the crisis,” SDSM spokesperson Petre Silegov said on Tuesday.
Almost all opposition MPs submitted written resignations to parliament in May after alleging that the ruling parties won the April general and presidential elections by fraud.
The opposition insisted that the ruling VMRO DPMNE party won the elections illegitimately and demanded the formation of a caretaker government to prepare new polls.
However, the VMRO DPMNE leader, Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who has held power since 2006, insisted that no elections in Macedonia had been more democratic than the ones that his party won in April.
Dimovski on Monday said the opposition demand for a caretaker government “was not and will not be acceptable” to his party.
Although the resignation of opposition MPs does not directly affect the work of the new parliament, the dispute is clearly damaging the country’s already stalled prospects of further European and Atlantic integration.
Dimovski’s hint of fresh elections comes days after the parliamentary speaker, Trajko Veljanoski, urged the opposition to “act responsibly” and to return to parliament by October 8, when the European Commission is set to publish its annual report on Macedonia’s progress towards EU accession.
The Social Democrats immediately declined to do so and reiterated their list of demands.
The Prime Minister and the opposition leader, Zoran Zaev, met only once in June in a futile bid to diffuse the row.
For the purposes of general elections, Macedonia is divided into six electoral units, each contributing 20 legislators to the 123-seat parliament. The three remaining seats are elected by voters in the diaspora.
The parties propose lists of 20 candidates in each of the six electoral units. The more votes that a party wins in each of the six units, the more candidates from that list enter parliament.
If additional elections are called, only the vacant seats won previously by the opposition will have to be filled.
Is Kyiv Prepared for a Bosnian Scenario? (New Eastern Europe, by Bartosz Marcinkowski, 23 September 2014)
The September 16th 2014 session of the Ukrainian parliament (Verkhovna Rada) was very significant for several reasons. First and foremost, Ukraine’s parliament ratified a much anticipated landmark political and trade agreement with the European Union and approved a bill guaranteeing amnesty for some pro-Russian rebels. However, there is one more reason why this session was so important – the Ukrainian MPs passed a bill, proposed by President Petro Poroshenko, which granted a special special regime of self-governingfor parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Although officials of the self-proclaimed republics refuse to accept any Ukrainian legislation, the passing of this bill shows us something very important. Kyiv may be ready to accept wider autonomy of Donbas and cede control over large parts of Donbas as a possible solution to the conflict.
Another Dayton?
More and more often, international observers of the situation in Eastern Europe have compared the ongoing war in Ukraine to the violent breakup of the former Yugoslavia. Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine are likened to that of Slobodan Milošević’s tactics in the 1990s during the so-called Balkan wars. The Kremlin’s ambition to unite all Russians within the borders of one state, a resurrection of old Russian geopolitical concepts such as “Novorossiya” and the idea of a “Greater Serbia” are similar in many ways. The “little green men” remind us of volunteer paramilitary units like the infamous Arkan’s Tigers. The Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics are equivalents to the self-proclaimed states within the territory of Croatia (the Republic of Serbian Krajina) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (Republika Srpska). The difference is that the latter was internationally recognised and it is still a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Does the recent decision by Ukraine’s parliament mean that Kyiv is prepared for the execution of a Bosnian scenario on its soil?
The anti-terrorist operation launched by Ukraine several months ago has, since the very beginning, shown many similarities to the Croatian way of dealing with separatism – its main goal was to seize control over Donetsk and Luhansk and to bring back stability to a united Ukraine. It was mainly the Kremlin that wanted Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table with the separatists. However, as the situation in Donbas worsened in the early days of September, Poroshenko announced a permanent ceasefire in the eastern hot spots of the country. Less than two weeks after that, Kyiv declared readiness to grant more autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk.
This juncture is once again similar to the case of the Bosnian war. The General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, widely known as the Dayton Accords, ended the Bosnian war and drafted a contemporary political system for the country. On the one hand it was a great achievement by the international community, but on the other – especially looking from today’s perspective – Bosnian statehood has turned out to be extremely shaky and weak. While other countries in the region made significant progress on the way towards integration with western political structures like the EU and NATO, Bosnia and Herzegovina still falls victim to its complicated federal structure. Sarajevo is mostly focused on solving numerous internal problems and on the invidious cooperation with Banja Luka (capital city of Republika Srpska) and its hands are tied, when it comes to foreign policy issues.
Frozen conflict as a solution
The federalisation of Ukraine, or at least giving Donetsk and Luhansk broad autonomy, will most likely have a similar, negative, impact on Ukraine’s rapprochement with the West. Membership in the EU, desired by many Ukrainians, may be seriously delayed in such circumstances and it would be probably much easier if Ukraine just let these regions secede. This, however, brings about the risk that other parts of Ukraine could follow this example so this is why it is so important to keep them within the Ukrainian borders.
“The ideal scenario for Russia would be the Bosnian model” as Russian political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov recently put it. The solution is ideal for Russia, but certainly not for Ukraine. Kyiv seems to understand this threat, perhaps that is why the offer of self-rule in the breakaway parts of eastern Ukraine was granted for the period of only three years.
Even though the rebels do not accept Kyiv’s proposal, it is important for two reasons. First, it shows that the Ukrainian government is willing to negotiate with the rebels. Second, it means that Ukraine does not want to accept autonomy of parts of Donbas as a permanent solution. Thus, Ukraine should seriously consider other scenarios, like Moldova or Cyprus, as a better option than keeping Donbas and providing it with the legal tools for torpedoing the country’s foreign policy plans.
Cyprus managed to join the EU in 2004 in spite of a frozen conflict that takes place in the northern part of the island. Moldova is taking the right steps aimed at EU accession as it is not fully dependent on Transnistria in this matter. Bosnia and Herzegovina, however, is obliged to comply with the policies of both the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska as equal entities of the state.
Not exactly the Balkans
No doubt, there are also meaningful differences between Bosnia and Ukraine. Bosnia and Herzegovina is inhabited by nearly 40 per cent of Serbs and Republika Srpska encompasses almost 50 per cent of the state’s territory. Conversely, the pro-Russian rebellion in Ukraine covers a relatively small part of the country, while the Russian minority in Ukraine makes up around 17 per cent of the total population, much smaller than the one living in Estonia or Latvia, countries which successfully have managed to become members of both NATO and the EU. Some parts of Ukraine regarded as a potential pro-Russian stronghold (ex. Odesa) did not turn into a “second Donbas”, contrary to the Kremlin ideologists’ expectations. It is also not certain how long the unrest in Donbas can last and whether all of Ukraine’s Russians support Putin’s foreign policy.
Social science and historical experience teach us that political attitudes may evolve with time. In the late 1990s and the early 2000s, it was nearly impossible to find a person in Serbia who would openly support integration with the EU. This has changed over the years and the backing for membership in the EU has been on the rise. Now, the majority of Serbian citizens are in favour of joining the EU despite of fact that Serbia is still seen as Russia’s traditional ally in the Balkans.
In the end, the scale of the atrocities committed by both sides of the current war in Ukraine is not as large as those committed during the war in Bosnia. Although at this point no one yet talks about the reconciliation, it should not be forgotten.
Ukraine and the world should learn at least one lesson from the Bosnian experience: the price for keeping Donetsk and Luhansk at all costs may be too high. Instead of claiming an illusory link to the territories which are under control of separatists, Kyiv should rather not let the rebellion expand and move on towards Europe. Otherwise, it will always be hostage to its eastern parts and to Moscow.
Bartosz Marcinkowski is an assistant editor with New Eastern Europe.
