LOCAL PRESS
Vucic: Giving up from South Stream is bad news (RTS)
Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic says that the announcements on the suspension of the construction of the South Stream are not good news for Serbia, which was loyal to this project. Vucic assures citizens they need not worry and that there will be enough gas for this winter as well as for the following winters. He says that he will discuss this with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials once he returns from the UN Security Council session. “Serbia hasn’t contributed with anything for such a decision to be passed. Now, we’ll see whether Europhiles and Russophiles will be accusing each other for this… It is certain we are not to be blamed for anything,” said Vucic. He recalled that the state of Serbia has invested a lot of effort into this project over the past seven years, since the first signatures when the president was Boris Tadic and the prime minister was Vojislav Kostunica. He pointed out this was a good project that Serbia hasn’t been giving up even under the greatest possible pressures. “We are paying the price of the big ones, but Serbian citizens must not worry this winter nor next…we will manage to resolve this issue in the best possible interests for citizens. Would it have been better if we had South Stream? It certainly would and Serbia would have been a more secure country in terms of energy,” said Vucic.
Dacic: Condemn Seselj, not Serbia (RTS/Tanjug)
Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic harshly criticized in the European Parliament (EP) the resolution on Vojislav Seselj that was adopted last week. Ivica Dacic conveyed at the meeting of the foreign ministers of the Western Balkan countries that Seselj’s policy should be condemned, but not Serbia. Dacic regrets that his visit to Zagreb was cancelled last week, as well as Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic’s visit to Belgrade. “We will continue with the reforms and development of regional cooperation, just as we will continue with the harmonization of our foreign policy with the European,” said Dacic. However, he warns that it is difficult to build peace and stability in the region, and that they are easily degraded, giving as an example the resolution on Seselj. “Serbia didn’t take part in the Tribunal’s decision to release Seselj, nor did the Tribunal set any conditions,” says Dacic. He points out that the ICTY didn’t appeal the decision on release when Seselj was in The Hague, but that it appeals it now that he is in Belgrade. In the context of facing the past, Dacic criticized the EP and Kosovo representatives at the conference because they haven’t mentioned the necessity of establishing a special court for crimes committed against the Serbs. “Why hasn’t anybody, but anybody spoke about that?” asked Dacic. He concludes that Serbia had clearly distanced itself from Seselj’s policy that can be seen not only from the election results, but also through statements given by him and other Serbian government members over the past week.
Vulin to ICTY: Do not create misfortune! (RTS)
Serbian Minister for Labor Aleksandar Vulin has told the morning news of Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS) that the fact that the ICTY Prosecution had requested the return of Vojislav Seselj to The Hague is nothing new and that his release had served for destabilization of Serbia. However, Vulin reiterated that it was expected for the situation on Seselj’s release would develop this way. “I have said that the time will come when they will tell us to arrest him, and that he will not agree to that. They are invocating big misfortune,” said Vulin. He expects the ICTY to pass a political decision when it comes to Seselj’s case. “I expect them to say: ‘You have the Law on cooperation with the ICTY – arrest him’. Then he will try to gather people so there can be a conflict with the police. Then all those who don’t like us will be satisfied,” says Vulin. According to him, Serbia is a legal state, so that the Law on cooperation with the ICTY must be respected. “I am asking the panel of judges – leave him. I know that you are disappointed with the weak performance. Leave him now, do not create even greater misfortune among the Serbs,” said Vulin.
Gasic and Dikovic greet Serbian peacekeeping members from Lebanon (Tanjug)
Serbian Armed Forces troops returning from the UNIFIL multinational operation in Lebanon were given a ceremonial welcome at the Constantine the Great Airport in Nis. The 21st Infantry Battalion of the Land Forces 2nd Brigade was welcomed by Serbian Defense Minister Bratislav Gasic and the Serbian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, General Ljubisa Dikovic. The homecoming ceremony was also attended by Zivojin Dinic, a veteran peacekeeper who took part in the UN peacekeeping mission in Sinai in 1959. This contingent of the Serbian Armed Forces is returning from Lebanon with the highest marks, Gasic said at the ceremony. “These soldiers executed the most complex tasks in the peacekeeping mission, carrying not only the Serbian tricolor flag, but also the blue flag of the United Nations. They won the trust of the participants of the mission as well as of the local population,” Gasic said. “Participation in peacekeeping missions is significant for maintaining peace in the world, as well as for the Serbian military. They have all returned from this mission richer by an experience and by friendships with other soldiers and officers, and, certainly, more capable for the tasks that await them here in their country,” General Dikovic said. A 130-strong company returned to Serbia on Tuesday after becoming the second such unit to spend six months in Lebanon. Their task was to monitor the situation along the demarcation line between Israel and Lebanon and assist the local population. A new group of Serbian troops boarded the same plane, which took them to Lebanon for a six-month mission.
REGIONAL PRESS
B&H House of Peoples delegates not selected: FB&H government to be formed next year (Oslobodjenje)
The House of Peoples in the Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) entity of the Federation, on which depends the timing of the selection of the leadership of the executive government – president and two vice presidents, who propose the prime minister-designate for the composition of the new entity government – will not be formed in accordance with legal guidelines before the deadline of 30 days after confirmation of the general election results in B&H. Namely, as Maksida Piric, spokesperson for the Central Electoral Commission, confirmed, thus far, of the total ten cantons in the Federation, candidate lists for delegates in the House of Peoples have been received from only one canton – Central Bosnia. The CIK B&H at a session at the end of November verified all eight candidate lists, with a total of 22 candidates. Otherwise, the cantonal legislative bodies select 58 delegates to the House of Peoples, 17 each from the Bosniak, Serb, and Croat peoples, and seven from the “others.” In accordance with Article 10.13 of the electoral law, selection of delegates to the Federation of B&H (FB&H) House of Peoples occurs immediately by convention of the cantonal assembly after elections for the cantonal assemblies, at the latest a month following certification of election results. Serious delays in selecting all delegates to the FB&H House of Peoples will also be because the Serb caucus remains incomplete after the delegation of mandates by the cantons, in the second round, given that in the B&H general elections 16 of the required 17 delegates from the Serb people were elected to the ten cantonal assemblies. In accordance with this, the CIK B&H must enter a third round of election for the one missing delegate to the Serb caucus from the ranks of unelected candidates from lists of political subjects that would have a Serb representative, and then determine where, by mandate-dividing quotient, the delegate belongs in the cantonal assemblies. The thus-selected representative of the Serb people will not be a delegate in the canton’s assembly, as would usually be the case in accordance with the FB&H constitution, but rather simply a delegate to the House of Peoples. In the first round of mandate allocation for the House of Peoples, the places for the Bosniak and Serb delegates from West Herzegovina Canton were not filled, because all 23 elected representatives in the assembly are exclusively Croats. From the Tuzla Canton, in accordance with the prescribed regulations, it will not be possible to fill a delegate from the Croat people in the first round, nor two from the ranks of the “other” or a delegate from the Serb people. Namely, the Tuzla Assembly elected 34 Bosniaks to the 35 total places, with the remaining filled by a Serb. Two Serb delegates will thus be selected from the Tuzla Assembly.
It will not be possible to select even a single Serb delegate from the Zenica-Doboj Cantonal Assembly, but two will be elected. There is no Serb delegate to the Posavina Cantonal Assembly, but according to legal regulations a House delegate should be selected. A representative of the “others” cannot be selected from the Central Bosnia Assembly, because there is no one who identifies as such among the cantonal assembly members. Selection of the missing delegates from the Serb people from Posavina, Zenica-Doboj, Tuzla, and West Herzegovina Cantons, the representative of the Bosniak people from West Herzegovina, and representatives of the Croat people and the “others” from Tuzla and one “other” from Central Bosnia will be done by reallocation of mandate, in the second round of elections, and from the cantonal assemblies in which there are Serbs, Bosniaks, Croats, and “others.” Only in Una-Sana, Podrinje, Herzegovina-Neretva, Sarajevo, and Livno (Canton 10) Cantons can delegates be selected to the House of Peoples, in accordance with legal prescriptions. The missing delegates from the Serb people can be partially compensated for in the second round with two from Canton 10 and one from the Herzegovina-Neretva Canton. Simultaneously, candidates from the “others” who are missing in the second round will be able to be filled from the Una-Sana Cantonal Assembly, where there are two representatives, and the same from the Sarajevo Cantonal Assembly, where there is a “surplus”, and one each from the ZDK and BPK. With that, the number of representatives of the “others” in the ten cantonal assemblies in the Federation will be three times greater than were selected in total – seven. The missing representative of the Croat people from Tuzla Canton can be compensated from the BPK, SBK, HNK, ZHK, KS, and Canton 10 assemblies, and the missing Bosniak representative from the ZHK can be filled from any other canton in the Federation. In the ten cantonal assemblies in the Federation, on the basis of data from the CIK B&H, a total of 171 Bosniak, 92 Croat, 16 Serb, and 10 “others” representatives were elected. The caucuses of the House of Peoples select the president and vice presidents of the entity, who with a general majority include the support of at least a third of the caucuses of each constitutive people. The FB&H president, with the consent of the vice presidents, proposes the prime minister-designate to compose the entity government, which is confirmed by the second house, the House of Representatives. The constitutive session of the House of Representatives is scheduled for Tuesday, 2 December, several days after the deadline. Namely, the House of Representatives should be constituted 20 days after confirmation of the general election results in B&H, which the CIK B&H did on 10 November. In keeping with this, the House of Representatives should have held its constitutive session by the last day of November.
The inaugural session of the House of Representatives of FB&H: Sworn statements and election (Oslobodjenje)
The new House of Representatives assembly of the B&H Federal Parliament will be constituted today, in addition to the verification of mandates, laying solemn declarations and distribution of certificates to 98 delegates, the agenda envisage the election of the new leadership, Chairman and two Deputy Chairman, members of the temporary committee and the working bodies.
Today’s session will be opened by the current Chairman of the House, Safet Softic and will be led by him till the election of a new chairman. Softic expected to close a fully completed session, meaning fulfilling the entire agenda, including the election of the new leadership. In the new assembly of the House of Representatives there are elected delegates from 11 political entities. Largest number of seats are won by the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 29, the Alliance for a Better Future – Radoncic (SBB) 16, the Democratic Front – Zeljko Komsic (DF) 14, the HDZ B&H coalition, the HSS, HKDU B&H, HSP dr. Ante Starcevic and the HSP 12 Herceg-Bosna, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) 12, the Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990) four, and the Bosnian Patriotic Party – Sefer Halilovic (BPS), the Party for B&H (SB&H) three, the Democratic Party activities (A CDA) two, Our party has one, the same like the Labour Party.
According to previously signed pre-election agreements, the majority in the federal parliament would be consisted of the SDA, DF and of the coalition led by the HDZ B&H. Together they have 53 MPs. These three entities are expected to propose the names for the new leadership of the House. The Party of Democratic Action, the largest party in the new assembly of the House of Representatives, wants the chairman position and its candidate for the post will be Edin Music. In the last assembly Music was a member of the Federal parliament, and previously served two terms as the Federal Minister for refugees and displaced persons. The Democratic Front’s proposal will be for the Vice-Chairman position. He is a Serb and his name is Sasa Mitrovic. Second Vice-Chairman will be from among Croat people and he will be proposed by the coalition led by the HDZ B&H. Because of the equal gender representation it is possible that this coalition leadership in the House of Representatives will propose a woman. For the Federal Parliament to be fully constituted, it is necessary to establish the House of Peoples. Given that 58 delegates are electing candidates from ten cantonal assemblies in the Federation, it is still uncertain when it would be done. According to some estimates, the House of Peoples could be formed by February next year.
Covic: Goverment at the level of B&H meaningless without SNSD (RTRS)
President of the HDZ B&H Dragan Covic believes that the executive power at the B&H level is meaningless without the SNSD, because this party succeeded to form a government in the Republika Srpska (RS). “Any government at the B&H level without SNSD wouldn’t be a functional and good government,” said Covic for RTRS. He pointed out that it is finally time to discuss this issue and come to an agreement in order to stop manipulative misleading of the public. Covic reminded that the HDZ B&H has been a reliable partner of SNSD for the last eight to nine years and he sees no reason not to continue. Speaking about the recently signed agreement between HDZ B&H, SDA and the Democratic Front, Covic said that the agreement includes principled issues concerning the constitution, electoral law, regulation rule of law, economic and social growth and the language issues. “We need to sit behind the table again and try to make a functional executive power at the B&H level that can cope with the issues regarding European integrations and internal organization of the state. For us the priority issue is to change the Election Laws of B&H,” said Covic. He said that the HDZ B&H would be interested in the position of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, but not at any price, and that the issue should be resolved by the agreement. Covic believes that B&H can get candidate status for EU membership within next two years despite the obstacles.
Dodik: I do not depend on the charity of Covic and Izetbegovic (Oslobodjenje)
After the meeting with the president of HDZ, Dragan Covic, Dodik said that he is one step closer to the decision of “withdrawing” from the government at the B&H level and added that SNSD does not want to “sweet-talk” anyone to just to be represented in the government. The RS President and the leader of SNSD Milorad Dodik said that he does not depend on the “charity” of Bakir Izetbegovic nor Dragan Covic. “We are not waiting for any charity. We are not interested in emotional or any other commitment of Bakir Izetbegovic,” said Dodik stating that the SNSD is a legitimate political representative. Dodik claims that the same thing that’s happening now happened four years ago, when the HDZ was evicted of the government. Now we will have a “second-place or losers” from the RS taking a power at the B&H level – said Dodik. He also said that for SNSD it is easier not to have responsibility at the B&H level, but that no one can expect them to applaud to the parliamentary majority which may be formed at the state level. B&H Presidency member and HDZ leader Dragan Covic said today that the HDZ will be a part of government any scenario. Covic announced his talks with the deputy president of the SDA, Bakir Izetbegovic tomorrow, in order of resolving the delays in forming the government in some Federal cantons.
INTERNATIONAL PRESS
Fears of Serbia Return to Iron Rule of Nationalism (Associated Press, by Jovana Gec and Dusan Stojanovic, 2 December 2014)
STARA PAZOVA, Serbia — As nationalist hysteria gripped the Balkans a quarter century ago, Aslan Ballaj, an ethnic Albanian from Kosovo, did something unthinkable: He moved to Serbia to open a bakery at a time when people like him were increasingly seen as the enemy.
Since then, Ballaj has remained alongside his Serb neighbors even as their nations went to war in the late 1990s, managing against the odds to escape violence in the darkest days of the bloodshed. Just as he thought the times of fear and revenge were over, extremists in October attacked his bakery shop, riddling it with bullets and throwing a hand grenade that shattered windows and destroyed walls, tables and chairs. “I thought this was the 21st century,” said the 50-year-old father of four. “I never dreamed this could happen, especially not now.” Nearly 20 minority-owned businesses were targeted along with Ballaj’s in a spate of coordinated attacks – triggered by a soccer brawl – that have brought back memories of the era of late strongman Slobodan Milosevic, who incited ethnic hatred at home to wage wars against Balkan neighbors. Hate speech is on the rise. Anti-Western propaganda fills the airwaves. Liberal journalists are pulled off air. Nationalists talk up redrawing Balkan borders. Mafia-style hits, a hallmark of the Milosevic years, are returning. And as Russia and the West collide over Ukraine, Serbia is falling firmly into the camp of traditional mentor Moscow, even as it tries to advance its case for EU membership. “Somebody wants to remind us of the 1990s,” said government ombudsman Anika Muskinja-Hajnrih. “That is worrisome.” Serbia, whose stability is crucial for peace in the still-volatile Balkans, has been simmering with ethnic and social tensions that exploded after fans brawled during a European Championship qualifying match between Serbia and Albania. The fight, which involved players and fans over an Albanian flag that was flown over the stadium, stirred the most strife in the multi-ethnic north of Serbia where Ballaj is from. The increasingly strident rhetoric of Serb nationalists, tolerated if not encouraged by the government, has prompted many to ask if some of Milosevic’s trademark policies are back, despite the proclaimed pro-EU stance advocated by the current right-leaning government led by Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. Critics warn that surging pro-Russian and conservative sentiment has sidelined liberal critics, threatening the country’s hard-earned democracy. Vucic – who won Western support for promising to enact pro-EU political and economic reforms – has been accused at home of tightening his grip on power by curbing dissent and clamping down on the media. “It has never been like this, never,” said Olja Beckovic, a prominent journalist. “Just look at the television stations, there is no criticism anywhere no more.” Beckovic’s highly popular political talk show recently was removed from the program of B92, a private television station that once was the beacon of the liberal, pro-democratic movement that led to Milosevic’s downfall in 2000. She said Vucic had personally intervened to influence her choice of guests and other aspects of her show. Other media also have faced either political or economic pressure, she said. Vucic has denied the accusations, and says he had nothing to do with the show’s removal. B92 said Beckovic’s show no longer fits into the broadcaster’s program lineup. Vucic was a radical Serb nationalist during the conflict in the former Yugoslavia that killed more than 100,000 people and displaced millions. In the late 1990s, he served as Milosevic’s information minister at a time several opposition media outlets were persecuted and shut down. He has claimed to have shifted from being a hardline nationalist to a pro-EU reformer, rejecting accusations that he is trying to impose Milosevic-style grip on power. He and other former radicals have sought to overhaul their image by promising EU integration, Western-style reform and an aggressive fight against corruption. Unlike Milosevic, whose policies made Serbia a pariah state in the 1990s, Vucic’s government has worked to normalize ties between Serbia and its neighbors, including breakaway Kosovo – a former ethnic Albanian-dominated province that declared independence in 2008 and which Serbia has refused to recognize. The EU said the two nations must improve ties to qualify for membership. But in Milosevic-style defiance toward the West, Vucic’s government has also fostered strong ties with Moscow, refusing to back EU sanctions over its role in the Ukraine crisis. The Serbian government gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a hero’s welcome in October, organizing a Soviet-style military parade, while the two armies held joint military exercises weeks later, prompting fears that warmongering policies in the Balkans are back. The swing toward Putin and Russia also was strongly featured last month at an ultranationalist rally in Belgrade in which 10,000 people cheered suspected war criminal Vojislav Seselj – the onetime boss of Vucic’s party, who is now on provisional release from the U.N. war crimes tribunal. Evoking hate speech that marked Milosevic’s era, Seselj said Serbia should scrap EU integration and turn entirely toward Russia. He also said large chunks of neighboring Bosnia and Croatia should be part of Serbia. “Our enemies are all in the European Union,” said Seselj, who is accused of organizing notorious Serb paramilitary troops during the Balkan wars. “We must turn completely toward Russia.”
Days later, Serbia’s deputy war crimes prosecutor Bruno Vekaric – whose EU-backed office has put dozens of Serb war criminals on trial – received death threats after Vucic’s party official publicly questioned his energetic approach to seeking justice. Vekaric complained of an “atmosphere of lynching.” Adding to Serb tensions, a prominent tycoon was shot and wounded last month in the kind of mafia-style attack common during the Milosevic years, when criminal gangs and ex-paramilitaries fought for control over the underworld. “Fear of the `90s,” read a column about the shooting in the popular Blic daily. Vucic, highly popular for trying to restore Serb national pride after the lost Balkan wars, rejected claims that the mood of the 1990s is back in Serbia: “Everyone changes,” he said. “So have I, and I’m proud of that.”
Serbian PM: Termination of South Stream project bad news (ITAR-TASS, 1 December 2014)
Serbia has been investing in the South Stream project for seven years, and the project is crucial to the country’s energy security and employment
BELGRADE. Serbia’s Prime Minister Aleksandr Vucic has described as bad news Russia’s decision to curtail the South Stream gas pipeline project, the Serbian television channel RTS said on Tuesday.
“Serbia has been investing in this project for seven years, but now it has to pay the price of a clash between the great (powers),” the RTS quotes him as saying. Vucic would like to discuss this issue with Russian President Vladimir and other Russian officials upon his return from the session of the UN Security Council in New York.
On Monday evening Serbian Energy and Mining Industry Minister Aleksandr Antic said in the wake of the news Moscow was going to stop the project due to the European Union’s stance, that Serbia had not yet received any official notification from Russia’s Gazprom regarding any changes to the project for. He said the Russian president’s statement the project has been halted was regarded in Serbia as a message addressed in the first place to the EU members on which the gas pipeline’s construction depends heavily.
EU lashes itself as Russia shuts down South Stream (Pravda.Ru, 2 December 2014)
On December 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a one-day visit to Turkey. After a three-hour meeting with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Putin stated that the South Stream project, which was supposed to deliver Russian natural gas – up to 63 billion cubic meters – to South and Central Europe bypassing Ukraine, would be stopped. Putin stressed out that the move had to be made against the backdrop of EU’s opposition, as the project could not be implemented without Bulgaria’s permission. Western publications split in their estimations of Russia’s latest decision. The New York Times wrote that the decision to shut down the project was Putin’s diplomatic fiasco. On the contrary, The Times wrote that Putin declared gas war on Europe. According to the newspaper, using economic tools, Moscow tends to punish EU countries for their condemnation of Moscow’s actions with regard to Ukraine. As it became known, instead of South Stream, Russia’s Gazprom plans to turn the gas pipe towards Turkey. The latter may thus become the largest mediator in selling the Russian gas. Putin said that the capacity of the Blue Stream pipeline would be increased. In addition, an extra gas hub will be built on the Turkish territory on the border with Greece. The head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, stated that the construction of the pipe to Turkey could be conducted with the participation of local investors. The sea part of the pipe will start from booster station “Russkaya” – the starting point of both the South Stream gas pipeline and the Blue Stream pipeline that already works. According to sources of the Kommersant newspaper, it is cheaper to abandon the projected route and build a pipeline in parallel to South Stream, running the remaining part via Turkey. According to The New York Times, Turkey is the winner in the ongoing standoff between Russia and the European Union. Following China, Turkey has managed to gain advantage of the conflict and secured long-term energy supplies at discounted prices. Noteworthy, Ankara may have problems in relations with the West as a candidate for membership at the European Union. It just so happens that Turkey is acting in opposition to EU’s efforts to put pressure on Moscow through economic sanctions and reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia’s natural gas. Russia currently ships nearly 30 percent of its natural gas to Europe. Although it was obvious that South Stream could ensure reliable supplies of natural gas to Europe, it was Europe, rather than Russia, that refused from the project, RBC said. This is an erroneous strategy of inexperienced European bureaucrats, Sberbank Investment Research analyst Valery Nesterov told RBC. Having forced Russia to abandon the project, Brussels has lashed itself. Bulgaria, for instance, will lose $400 million a year in gas transit revenues. Now the Turkish pipeline, the construction of which Gazprom is set to start, will remove the problem of gas transit through Ukraine for deliveries to Turkey, Greece, and probably Bulgaria. Gazprom can ship gas to Slovakia, Austria and Hungary via the Nord Stream pipeline. However, Serbia, small countries of Western Balkans and Italy will remain dependent on the Ukrainian gas transportation system. EU’s recent opposition to South Stream was connected with Brussels’ wish to support Kiev in its confrontation with Moscow. Ukraine has always been a tough opponent to the project, as it could destroy its gas transportation system. As analysts suggest, Kiev will now try harder to change gas transit terms. Thus, the risks for gas transit to the EU will increase. South Stream is a natural gas pipeline project of Gazprom with the capacity of 63 billion cubic meters across the Black Sea to countries of South and Central Europe. Deliveries of Russian natural gas through the pipeline were to begin in late 2015. The system was supposed to operate at full capacity in 2018. The total length of the Black Sea leg of the system was to make up 925 km; The land-based section of the pipeline – 1,455 km – was to be built via Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia. President of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, Gennady Schmal, said in an interview with Pravda.Ru that it was sad for him to learn about Russia’s decision to close the project. “Of course, it is a pity, because it took a tremendous amount of time to negotiate with so many countries. About $5 billion has been spent. Yet, Bulgaria would say yes, and then no, then its government was sacked and the new government was formed. We cannot be held hostage to the behavior of our Bulgarian “friends” – we cannot be blackmailed all the time. Putin’s decision is completely justified. There are alternative projects too,” the expert told Pravda.Ru. According to him, such a turn of events is even better, because it will be possible to pay more attention to eastern projects, such as “The Power of Siberia” and “Altai”. “Bulgaria will lose a lot indeed. Without investing a penny, they could have profit from the transit of Russian natural gas. But it will not be. As for gas shipments, there are different options for that – through Turkey or Greece. Afterwards, we will build several other pipeline, including the Nord Stream along the bottom of the Baltic sea – 1,200 km,” Gennady Schmal told Pravda.Ru. The expert also commented on the statement from Bulgarian political analyst Ognyan Minchev, who said that “Putin’s refusal to build South Stream means that the EU has protected its rights and interests and complied with the Third Energy Package, which includes compliance with laws of competition in the EU.” “If interests of the EU are is more important to him than interests of Bulgaria, it is up to him to decide. I believe that every country, whether it is a part of the EU or not, has its own interests to defend it. In this case, the project was interesting for many countries, including Austria, Serbia and Macedonia. Therefore, Bulgaria’s refusal affected their interests too. Therefore, I believe that the statements from our Bulgarian colleague are ethical, to put it mildly, in relation to his own people.”
In fight for influence, Russia can play good cop too (Reuters, by Matt Robinson, 30 November 2014)
NIS, Serbia – There were 76, but they were dubbed the ‘Russian 100’ – life-savers flown in from Moscow within hours of an appeal for help from Serbia as the heaviest rainfall in more than a century inundated the Balkans in May. Brits, Austrians and Bulgarians arrived too, deployed by the European Union to aid an aspiring member of the bloc. But the Russians arrived first, and in force. “Crazy brave”, was how Serbia’s prime minister described them. Russia at the time was earning the ire of the West for dismembering Ukraine, so the PR in the Balkans was priceless. “They won the day,” said one Western diplomat. Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall signaled the collapse of the Kremlin’s grip on eastern Europe, Russia is re-asserting some of its lost influence. That is most obvious in Ukraine, where unmarked tanks roll across the countryside in support of pro-Russian separatists. But it is manifested in more subtle ways too all over ex-Communist eastern Europe: in the energy deals governments sign with their main gas supplier, in closer diplomatic ties, and in what Western diplomats say is a growing Russian effort to win over public opinion on an increasingly hostile continent. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin was guest of honor in Belgrade at a rain-soaked military parade marking 70 years since the Red Army liberated the city from the Nazis; this month, Russian paratroopers held a one-day drill with Serbian soldiers and Russian Patriarch Kiril blessed a statue of Czar Nicholas II outside the Serbian presidency building. “They’re ramping it up,” said the diplomat, who declined to be named. The Russian relief effort in May was coordinated through the Serbian-Russian Humanitarian Centre, a spotless new building opened in 2012 in the southern Serbian city of Nis as a disaster-response center with regional reach. It plays on the image some Serbs hold of Moscow as protector of its Slav brethren and lies barely 50 km (30 miles) from Kosovo, where 5,000 NATO troops still secure the peace between majority Albanians and minority Serbs 15 years after alliance air strikes wrested the territory from Belgrade. Equipped with shiny red fire trucks, boats, generators and tents, the center is a “pilot project”, said co-director Viktor Safyanov, with others planned in Latin America and Russia’s ex-Soviet backyard of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. It saved 3,000 people during the floods, he said, and has plans to expand to become “international”. “Of course, we value the verdict of the Serbian and Russian governments,” Safyanov told Reuters. “But for me and many of my colleagues, what’s important is the verdict of the people.”
SOFT-POWER DOCTRINE
Russia recently outlined a new soft-power doctrine entitled “Integrated Strategy for Expanding Russia’s Humanitarian Influence in the World”. The plan, said Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, was to counter “unprecedented measures to discredit Russian politics and distort Russia’s image.”
This month, Russia launched a state-of-the-art media organization to counter what its chief journalist called the West’s “aggressive propaganda”, with offices in dozens of cities around the world, including Belgrade. The Serbian office will have a staff of 30 and launch a Serbian-language news website by the end of this year and radio broadcasts early next, said its head, Ljubinka Milincic. “I think earlier Russia often lost the race with Western media,” Milincic told the Serbian daily Danas on Wednesday. “We simply want to show that truth has another side too.” Western money flowed to independent media, pro-democracy activists and politicians in the 1990s as the West tried to bolster opposition to then Moscow-backed strongman Slobodan Milosevic. Western foundations are still active in supporting media and civil society.
Western diplomats say Russian money may be finding its way to media outlets in Serbia, sympathetic think-tanks and political parties too, though firm evidence is hard to come by.
They also suggest support for right-wing groups that promote the more conservative values embraced by much of Russian society – Orthodox Christian, patriarchal and anti-gay.
“It’s clear that Russian intelligence services are financing – from the Baltics down to Bulgaria – extreme right movements, various unofficial groups, cultural groups, and that is where a lot of their cash is going,” said a former senior government official with experience working across the region. “Obviously, journalists too,” he said. “They are using a certain type of soft-power there.”
Serbia, Bulgaria and Hungary, where Prime Minister Viktor Orban stands out in the EU for his warm relations with Moscow and a 10 billion euro Russian loan this year to expand the country’s Paks nuclear plant, lie on the route of Russia’s planned South Stream gas pipeline, and have been frustrated by the EU’s refusal to give the go-ahead to construction. Anecdotal evidence suggests Russian ties to a number of right-wing Hungarian news portals.
‘NOT JUST ABOUT UKRAINE’
Serbia would appear to be fertile ground, balanced between a government committed to Western integration, and a generally conservative society within which some Serbs feel greater affinity with Russia. As part of socialist Yugoslavia during the Cold War, Belgrade was neither with the East nor the West, and though voters in search of prosperity have repeatedly backed a pro-EU course, many remain suspicious of the West since the NATO air strikes, in which some bombs went astray and hit Serb civilians. To publicly cross Russia is politically unpalatable; Serbia has refused to sign up to EU sanctions on Russia over Ukraine despite pressure to align its foreign policy with that of the 28-nation bloc. German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled her growing concern last week, saying in Sydney: “This isn’t just about Ukraine. This is about Moldova, this is about Georgia, and if this continues then one will have to ask about Serbia and one will have to ask about the countries of the Western Balkans.” The tug-of-war, however, is more often played out behind closed doors; two sources familiar with preparations for Putin’s visit in October said the Kremlin had asked that Russian staff in Nis be granted diplomatic status, but that Western ambassadors in Belgrade balked at the possibility of Russian supplies arriving in Serbia under the radar, and Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic refused. While there is no suggestion of any Russian or Serbian military threat to Kosovo, whose independence is not recognized by Moscow or Belgrade, the East-West political tussle over Serbia is sharpening. As Belgrade hosted Putin, Vucic’s interior minister signed a letter of intent accepting a long-standing EU offer to join the bloc’s own crisis-response body, the Civil Protection Mechanism, part of the country’s slow-moving integration with the bloc before eventual accession. A draft agreement is being approved, and may have implications for the Russian center. “If the Nis center is meant to have a larger regional role … its activities may need closer scrutiny at the European Union level,” an EU official, who declined to be named, told Reuters. EU accession “is a very slow process, and this is where people like President Putin and his acolytes are using this slowness to be a hindrance,” said Ivan Vejvoda, senior vice-president for programs at the German Marshall Fund. Vejvoda, former foreign policy adviser to Zoran Djindjic, an-ex Serbian Prime Minister assassinated in 2003 after playing a leading role in the ouster of Milosevic, said that despite Russia’s best efforts, Serbia’s compass was set to the EU and that was unlikely to change. “It’s good PR for Russia, but as we would say with Djindjic when we worked together, you have to take three steps back and look at what’s actually happening.”
Putin says will not build South Stream gas pipeline (EUobserver, by Andrew Rettman, 2 December 2014)
Hungary moves ahead with South Stream pipeline; South Stream could stop Serbia joining EU, energy chief says
BRUSSELS – Russian leader Vladimir Putin has said he will no longer build the South Stream gas pipeline due to EU opposition. He made the announcement in Ankara on Monday (1 December) at a press briefing with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “We believe that in the current conditions Russia cannot continue with the realisation of this project [South Stream],” Putin said. “Bearing in mind that you need to construct the pipeline under the Black Sea, we cannot begin construction so long as we do not have permission from Bulgaria. To begin construction in the sea, get to the Bulgarian beach, then stop – it would be ridiculous”, he added.
“The position of the European Commission was not constructive … If Europe does not want to realise it, well, then, it won’t be realised”.
South Stream was to bring Russian gas to Austria and Italy via the Black Sea, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary from 2016. In strategic terms, it was to increase EU dependence on Russian energy and boost Russian influence in participating states. It would also have harmed Ukraine by bypassing its gas transit system. But the European Commission threatened to launch legal action on grounds that South Stream violates EU anti-monopoly laws, with Bulgaria halting construction in August. Putin said his decision will cost the EU. He noted that the South Stream consortium – which includes French, German, and Italian firms – has already spent “hundreds of millions of dollars” on the project. He added that Germany, which agreed to build the Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea, now benefits from some of the lowest gas prices in Europe.
He also urged Bulgaria to seek compensation for lost revenues. “If Bulgaria is prevented from behaving as a sovereign state, then at least let them ask for money from the European Commission for lost income – the direct budget revenues that Bulgaria would have had from [gas] transit were at least €400 million a year”. The death of South Stream should make it easier for the EU to construct a competing project – the so-called Tanap gas pipeline from Azerbaijan via Turkey to south-east Europe. But Putin on Monday also announced a new energy partnership with Turkey, amid EU concern over Erdogan’s future loyalties.
New Putin-Erdogan axis?
The Russian leader said he will add an extra branch to his existing Blue Stream gas pipeline to Turkey and build a new storage and trading “hub” on the Turkish-Greek border. The two leaders also noted that plans for Russian firm Rosatom to build a $20 billion nuclear power plant in Turkey are proceeding full speed ahead. For his part, Erdogan urged Putin to give better treatment to Crimean Tatars, a Turkic ethnic minority. Russia annexed Crimea in March and launched a crackdown on the Tatars, who oppose Russian rule. But the Turkish leader took a soft line on Russia’s war on Ukraine. Referring to Putin as his “dear friend”, he said only that the conflict must be “resolved within the framework of international law”. Erdogan also complained that Europe is not doing enough to help with Syrian refugees. He noted that Turkey has spent $5 billion on the 1.6 million Syrians who fled across the Turkish border. “So, what support has come to us from around the world? I tell you: $200 million. How many asylum seekers has all of Europe taken in? Dear friends: 130,000”, he said.
IMF to discuss Bosnia’s frozen deal from this week (Reuters, 1 December 2014)
SARAJEVO – An IMF mission will start a 10-day visit to Bosnia on Wednesday to discuss whether to unfreeze a loan deal that was halted in September over politicians’ failure to implement agreed economic policies. It is unclear however if the International Monetary Fund will be able to conclude the eighth review of its loan given that Bosnia has yet to form its multi-layered governments after an October general election, leaving 2015 budgets in limbo. Bosnia’s two impoverished autonomous regions, the Serb Republic and the Federation dominated by Bosniaks and Croats, need the IMF cash to fill their respective budget gaps that have widened after historic floods in May. The lender approved a two-year 380 million euro ($475 million) standby arrangement for Bosnia in September 2012, and last year enlarged it by around 150 million euros and extended it for another nine months to help avert social hardship. In June, it doubled its typical aid tranche to about 191 million euros to help the country cope with damage from the flooding, estimated at around 2 billion euros. But it held back from disbursing the next tranche of around 67 million euros in September, warning the governments to cut spending that was not related to addressing the impact of the floods. So far, the IMF has disbursed around 478.5 million euros under its aid.
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