Requests for strengthening the independence of Kosovo, pressures on Belgrade to impose sanctions on Russia and attempts to weaken Republika Srpska will be the biggest political challenges of Serbia in 2015.
It is estimated that the first big challenge will be resumption of the talks with Pristina under the supervision of the European Union, which has already been scheduled for 9 February. Already at this meeting could be discussed 12 Brussels conditions, as insisted by the Berlin, which greatly impair the status neutrality and are in favour of an independent Kosovo. Opening of the first chapters in the negotiations with EU will directly depend on the outcome of negotiations. Belgrade will insist that all solutions are within the framework of the Constitution of Serbia.
Besides the heavy battle for Kosovo, it is estimated that the Ukrainian crisis, including greater military actions, could culminate at early spring. And every deepening of the conflict between Russia and the West will aggravate neutral position of our country that refuses to impose sanctions on Moscow. In particular, Belgrade estimated that EU and the U.S. requests will be significantly enhanced in the months ahead. Despite that there is a consensus ‘not to turn back’ to Kremlin.
During the summer, is expected perhaps the strongest political offensive against the Republika Srpska. Specifically, in July marks the 20th anniversary of the Srebrenica crime and many foreign policy centres will try to take advantage of this particular moment. They will try to redefine the status of RS within Bosnia and Herzegovina and to strengthen the powers of the central government. Accordingly, it is estimated that the West would expect from Belgrade to assist in breaking the political resistance in Banja Luka.
