LOCAL PRESS

Vucic: Wisest policy for Kosovo (Radio Belgrade)

“The state of Serbia and the Serb people in Kosovo must conduct “the wisest and most responsible policy” so 17 March 2004 would not repeat, Vucic told reporters in Obrenovac. “Our response must never be the destruction of religious facilities belonging to others. Our response must never be violence, but rather the protection of our national interests,” Vucic said. “Our goal is to strengthen the economy and prospects for our people’s survival in Kosovo,” Vucic said.

Djuric, Vulin: Pogrom in Kosovo and Metohija must never be forgotten (RTS/Tanjug)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric and Serbian Minister for Labor Aleksandar Vulin attended the first school class in the “Drinka Pavlovic” elementary school that was devoted to the pogrom against the Serbs on 17 March 2004. They conveyed the message that this day must never be forgotten, and that such crime must never be repeated. As of this year, the memory of 17 March 2004 will be part of the program of marking anniversaries of historical events and the first class in all schools in Serbia will commence by recalling this tragic event. Our wish is for our children in Belgrade, but also in other parts of Serbia, to remember such difficult events and stay in touch with their peers in Kosovo and Metohija, Djuric told the press after the school class. “We don’t want this to be repeated ever, and in order to do this we must keep the memory about the causes, as well as to hold accountable the culprits for 17 March,” said Djuric, pointing out that nobody was ever punished for this. He recalled that that 17 March was preceded by 24 March 1999 when the bombardment started, and that ever since our government, state and army have not been in full capacity in Kosovo and Metohija. Minister Vulin said that on 17 March 2004 everything started with one big lie – that the Serbs are letting dogs on Albanian children and that this lie was the cause for the pogrom of the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija and the destruction of Serb sanctities, which has never been denied by anyone. Vulin said that “the big world that has been silent about the truth of 17 March can admit the big lie today” because it is never late to recognize the truth.

Mihajlovic: Kosovo Serbs safer than before (RTS)

The Head of the Office for Media Relations Milivoje Mihajlovic says that the pogrom of 17 March 2004 in Kosovo and Metohija was an instrument of ethnic cleansing. However, he points out that, after 11 years, the state of Serbia has the most powerful influence in Kosovo since 1999 and that Kosovo Serbs are now safer than they were then. Mihajlovic told the morning broadcast of Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS) that the fact that Serbia has the most powerful influence in Kosovo since 1999 is also reflected through the Brussels dialogue. Mihajlovic assesses that political pressures will last, but will be less intensive. He notes that the reality is now different, because Kosovo Serbs, who took part in the local and parliamentary elections, have entered the institutions of the system in Kosovo and Metohija and have certain power. “It hasn’t occurred to any of the Kosovo Serbs to accept political pressure to live in the so-called independent republic of Kosovo,” said Mihajlovic, adding that the Kosovo Serbs are Serbian citizens. He points out that “nothing can be resolved in Kosovo and Metohija without the international community”. He also points out that the Albanians are also now the target of extremists, whose action was directed towards the expulsion of Serbs, because 150,000 Albanians have left Kosovo and Metohija over the past several months. Mihajlovic says that the pogrom conducted by Albanian extremists was continuing violence since 1999 and that even after 11 years a large number of people have not returned to their homes. He recalls that in the pogrom 19 people were killed, more than 900 injured, 412 left their homes and 39 Orthodox churches destroyed in Kosovo and Metohija. He points out that the reaction of the local authorities didn’t occur, and that five processes had been conducted before courts in Pristina, four of which verdicts were acquittals. Mihajlovic adds that, also according to the OSCE assessment, the sentences were mild, that the reaction of the international community was bad and that the then Serbian government responded to this pogrom with a prayer that was also inappropriate.

Eleventh anniversary of March pogrom against Serbs and Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo and Metohija (Danas, by Jelena Tasic)

The cause of the violence in Kosovo and Metohija in 2004 was the drowning of Albanian children from the village of Cabar in the Ibar River, for which the Serbs were falsely accused by Kosovo and certain Western media. Later claims by the Western media that the plan for the pogrom was known in advance by the intelligence services of certain Western states that have soldiers within KFOR, first of all Germany, have not been officially elaborated. According to the data of the Kosovo Police Service, 266 people were punished in criminal proceedings, while the investigation into the involvement of the Kosovo institutions has never been conducted. EULEX has given up several years ago from most of the cases in regard to the March events of 2004. The main political consequence of the March pogrom was that the international community gave up from the then model of resolving the Kosovo issue “standards before status” that was replaced with the formula “status then standards”. Unsuccessful negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina under UN auspices followed – Belgrade rejected Marti Ahtissari’s plan on supervised independence of Kosovo, and then the declaration of Kosovo’s independence. Following the fall of the government of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and the Democratic Party (DS), Belgrade first allowed the deployment of EULEX in Kosovo and Metohija, then accepted the technical dialogue, crowned with the Brussels agreement, for which the current government in Serbia claims to be a political and not a legal document. Due to the accession negotiations with the EU, Belgrade also pledged to sign the legally binding agreement with Pristina.

SRS: Annul the Brussels agreement (Beta)

On the occasion of 11 years since the Kosovo Albanians’ mass attacks against the Kosovo Serbs, the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) has requested that the Serbian parliament immediately annul the Brussels Agreement. According to the SRS, the Brussels Agreement is “an unconstitutional and treasonous act”. SRS, in the statement, requests the Serbian government to “stop negotiations on Serbia’s EU membership, and to return the issue of resolving the problem of Kosovo’s status under UN auspices, in accordance with the Serbian Constitution and UNSC Resolution 1244”. SRS assessed that the interim provincial institutions led by Kosovo Albanians have performed and prepared the plan for the 17 March 2004 violence against the Kosovo Serbs “with the support and assistance of Western powers, which had their army in the form of KFOR, in control of Kosovo at the time”. “Nobody in KFOR was held accountable for the pogrom against the Kosovo Serbs and the fact that those displaced were never returned to their homes. First by signing the Stabilization and Association Agreement, and then by bringing in EULEX, Boris Tadic practically renounced the southern Serbian province, but didn’t dare to sign the Brussels Agreement, whereby he would make this official. What Tadic didn’t do, however, Aleksandar Vucic and Tomislav Nikolic and Ivica Dacic have done, and thus have become some of the biggest traitors in the history of Serbia,” assessed SRS.

Joksimovic: Opening of a chapter by mid-year would be an achievement (Beta/Tanjug)

Serbian Minister without Portfolio in charge of EU Integrations Jadranka Joksimovic said that the opening of a chapter by mid-2015 would be an achievement and that several chapters were expected to be opened by the end of the year. After opening an event on EU-financed projects, she said she believed that, with good action plans and progress in the implementation of the Brussels agreements, the chapters would be opened soon.

Germans persistently hindering Serbia (Novosti)

Europe is not yet prepared for the negotiations with Serbia. A series of high-level meetings is being held in Brussels this week, but Serbia is not on the agenda of any of them, meaning that it will remain with vague support regarding some future date for opening the first chapter. Novosti’s sources at the headquarters of the EU administration point out that technical negotiations for Chapter 32 (financial control) are fully completed and that they could commence tomorrow, but that there is no political will for this. Germany is hindering as it insists on first opening Chapters 23, 24 and 35 that refer to rule of law and Kosovo. In order for some chapter to be prepared for opening, this should be first proposed by the European Commission through a screening report, which is then discussed by experts of the Working group for enlargement before it reaches the table of ambassadors, then ministers of EU member states. Following an invitation to open Chapter 32, the European Commission headquarters has not yet sent anything on that topic to the European Council headquarters as well. Therefore, Serbia is not being discussed until further notice. “Serbia must first complete the action plan for Chapters 23 and 24. It is good that the high-level dialogue with Kosovo has resumed, we hope for a positive development, but tangible results also need to be achieved here. In that sense, we expect a report from the European External Action Service,” points out Novosti’s source.

REGIONAL PRESS

B&H Council of Ministers completed (Nezavisne)

Denis Zvizdic, the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of B&H, has confirmed in Mostar that he has now a complete Council and that it will be formed by the end of March, stressing the need for a week or two to complete the assessment. The HDZ B&H and the SDA have announced all their candidates for the Council of Ministers, as well as the personnel for the FB&H government, while their third coalition partner in the Federation of B&H, the Democratic Front (DF), has not yet released the names of candidates for the ministries that belong to them in the Federation government. “I am pleased with the candidates. These are people who have knowledge and experience. Now we can talk about the serious capacity of the people who will be responsible for the implementation of fundamental reforms in the areas for which the Council of Ministers has jurisdiction under the Constitution and law,” said Zvizdic. He added that priority would be the acceleration of all processes and activities related to EU integration, which are under the jurisdiction of the Council of Ministers and which have been agreed in the context of the joint statement of the B&H European path. For the new composition of the B&H Council of Ministers, with the exception of mandate holder Denis Zvizdic, the SDA will propose Adil Osmanovic as a Minister of Civil Affairs, and Semiha Borovac, as a Minister for Human Rights and Refugees. The SDA nominated, for the substitute positions, Nezir Pivic as a Deputy Minister of Justice and Mirsad Zuga as a Deputy Finance Minister. The HDZ B&H has completed the names of their candidates for this level of government and the ministers will be Vjekoslav Bevanda, Marina Pendes and Josip Grubesa. Bevanda will be the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Defense will be Pendes and Grubesa will be the Minister of Justice. The HDZ B&H, for the positions of deputy ministers at the state level, proposed Deputy Foreign Minister Josip Brkic, Transport and Communications Predrag Kozul, Foreign Trade and Economic Relations Mata Franjicevic, and a Deputy Minister of Security Mijo Kresic. Alliance for Change RS announced earlier the names of their ministerial candidates. These are Igor Crnadak (PDP) for the position of Foreign Minister, Mirko Sarovic (SDS) as a Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations, Dragan Mektic (SDS) as a Minister of Security. The Democratic Front has previously nominated Slavko Matanovic as a Minister of Transport and Communications. The coalition Alliance for Change has nominated Boris Jerinic (SDS) as a Deputy Defense Minister, Predrag Jovic (SDS) as a Deputy Minister for Human Rights and Refugees, Djordje Milicevic (NDP) as a Deputy Minister of Civil Affairs. The Democratic Front has nominated Emir Suljagic as a Deputy Defense Minister. When it comes to Federation government, Marinko Cavara, President of FB&H, said he expects to receive the names of the DF and SDA ministers in order to appoint the government of the Federation tomorrow. The coalition partners SDA and HDZ B&H announced the names of candidates for the relevant ministries assigned to them according to the agreement which was reached last week after five months. The confirmed candidate, the Prime Minister of FB&H, will be Fadil Novalic from SDA. The new FB&H government, when it comes to the members of HDZ B&H and Croat parties around HDZ B&H, will join Jelka Milicevic, as a Minister of Finance, Denis Lasic as a Transport and Communications Minister, Zora Dujmovic as a Minister of Culture and Sport, and Vjekoslav Mandic as a Health Minister, while Mato Jozic was nominated as a Minister of Justice, and Josip Marti as a Minister of Physical Planning. The Personnel Committee of the SDA proposes, Elvira Cemalovic-Dilberovic as a Minister of Education, Minister of trade and entrepreneurship should be Amir Zukic, Salko Bukvarevic the Minister for Veterans’ Affairs in the FB&H Government, the FB&H Minister of Interior should be Aljosa Campara, the Minister of Agriculture, Water and Forestry Semsudin Dedic and Minister for Refugees Edin Ramic.

SNSD and DNS delegates not participating in the House of Peoples of B&H (RTRS)

The SNSD and DNS delegates will not participate in today’s session of the House of Peoples of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) in Sarajevo. This means that the session in Sarajevo will not be held, due to the fact that without the three delegates from the RS, there is no quorum, writes RTRS. As the SNSD pointed out, two of theirs delegates will not participate in the work of the House as long as the principles which have so far been in force for the formation of the joint committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of B&H are not followed. “We consider unacceptable and irresponsible that the SDS, in the name of RS, in a joint commission for overseeing the Intelligence and Security Agency of B&H, proposes and elects the SDA delegate Sadik Ahmetovic and eliminates the SNSD delegate,” announced the Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD). It also states that reducing the significance of the SNSD representatives at the B&H level is impermissible, because the existing regulations clearly define the representation of the opposition in these committees.

Genjac: We are entering a period of blackmail, blockage and obstruction by the SNSD (Fena)

The Chairman of the Constitutional Commission of the Parliamentary Assembly of B&H Halid Genjac said for Fena that already yesterday it was announced by the top leadership of the SNSD that they are “simply going to block and obstruct the work of the B&H Parliamentary Assembly”. “Failure to participate in the session of the Constitutional commission is expected procedure that follows,” said Genjac after the morning session of the Legislative Commission of the House of Peoples was adjourned because of the absence of the members from the Serb caucus Sredoje Novic and Dragutin Rodic. “We may talk about the reasons and the solutions, the reasons are a manufactured. Just as the case of SNSD MP’s abandoning the last few sessions of the House of Representatives, the announced absence from the House of Peoples is based on a manufactured and, one might even say, banal reasons,” said Genjac. According to him, it is obvious now that the problem is neither a war crime, nor the reason for such actions and such obstruction may be the composition of the joint committee. “Since these reasons are only used as an excuse, it is very difficult to find a rational solution, because when one problem is solved, a new reason will be fabricated after that and a new blackmail and so on indefinitely,” said Genjac. Presumably, he said, “we are entering into a period of blackmail, blockage and obstruction by the SNSD”. “What is the reason and what is the background? Now it is obvious that it is not just a matter of composition of B&H authorities, which is one of the major reasons that has hit the SNSD in terms of their efforts to decide all matters and that without them no decisions can simply be made. The far-reaching efforts are visible, to show that the B&H as a state cannot function,” said Genjac. He added that, “when you have such a motive, one can always expect more inventing and fabricating of some new cause, some new reasons”. “I think that the eyes cannot be shut any more, neither the international community’s, not the OHR’s. The B&H problem resides in the cabinet of Mr. Dodik and his inner environment and this problem should be called by the right name, and that problem should be solved,” said Genjac.

Hague Tribunal rejects Goran Hadzic release plea (RTCG)

The UN-backed court turned down a request for provisional release for medical treatment from former Croatian Serb leader Hadzic, who is on trial for alleged war crimes. In its decision published on Monday, the trial chamber of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia said it had rejected Hadzic’s request to have cancer treatment in Serbia because he was already getting adequate care in custody in the Netherlands. “The trial chamber will continue to evaluate Hadzic’s health situation, but at present finds that Hadzic’s detention at the UNDU (UN Detention Unit), where he can be closely monitored and receive satisfactory medical care while undergoing the second phase of his treatment, is compatible with Hadzic’s treatment needs,” it said. “The trial chamber finds that the defense has failed to provide sufficiently compelling humanitarian reasons justifying provisional release,” it added. The trial of Hadzic was interrupted last year in the middle of his defence arguments after he was diagnosed with cancer. His defense team had asked for provisional release for “medical care, rest, and family support” in Serbia. Hadzic has tried several times to get early release for treatment, rather than at the Tribunal’s detention center in the Netherlands. So far, all his requests have been denied. During the war in Croatia in the 1990s, Hadzic was president of the self-proclaimed Serbian Autonomous District of Slavonia, Baranja and Western Srem and subsequently President of the Republic of Serbian Krajina – both unrecognized Serb-controlled areas within Croatia. He is facing 14 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity over his alleged involvement in the forced removal and murder of thousands of non-Serb civilians from Croatia between 1991 and 1993. Hadzic was arrested in Serbia in 2011 after seven years on the run, and his trial started in October 2012. The prosecution has already finished presenting its evidence.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

World Bank supports Serbia in creating better real estate management for its citizens and investors (The Financial, 17 March 2015)

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors on March 16 approved a EUR 36.2 million loan (US$44 million equivalent) for the Real Estate Management Project for Serbia.

The loan will support Serbia in ensuring accurate, complete, and electronically available information on real estate property, according to World Bank. Although Serbia made significant progress in improving its real estate sector over the last decade, its real estate services still lag behind European Union (EU) standards. Investments in geodetic infrastructure are needed, and Republican Geodetic Authority (RGA) services need to be made more accessible to all, including vulnerable groups. The data held by RGA, including on land, ownership, buildings, utility lines, and various forms of maps, is vital information for most government services, and needs to be made complete and more easily available. In addition, while RGA’s mandate has been further expanded to cover activities such as property valuation and building registration, there are concerns about its business model, and, therefore, the sustainability of the services it provides. “The proposed project supports the Serbian government’s new economic reform agenda, helping it to create a better business environment and new jobs, as well as advancing its European integration,” says Tony Verheijen, World Bank Country Manager for Serbia. “Better access to real estate information will attract investors and reduce transaction cost and time. In addition, development of real estate markets will boost small- and medium-enterprises that use real estate as collateral.” Property tax yield in Serbia is relatively low, with about 0.6 percent of its GDP collected annually in property taxes, against an average of 1.8 percent in OECD countries. Serbia lacks the complete and accurate data necessary to establish the tax base, it uses outdated valuation methods, and its tax rates are low. The first component of the project will address these issues by improving the system for annual property taxation through the development of a sales price registry for real estate, software to process data from the sales price registry, and a Mass Appraisal pilot program on property tax rolls and collection procedures in local governments units. The project will also establish a building registry, and will improve the real estate valuation framework by improving the quality of education for valuers and adopting internationally recognized standards for valuation. The second component of the project will focus on e-governance for enabling access to real estate information, while the third one aims at helping RGA become better and more sustainable institution.

EU to implement Bosnia association pact (EUobserver, by Eric Maurice, 17 March 2015)

EU foreign ministers agreed on Monday (16 March) to “proceed with the conclusion and entry into force” of the Stabilisation and Association agreement (SAA) with Bosnia and Herzegovina, a first step towards EU accession talks with the country. No date was set for the conclusion of the accord, but the EU called on Bosnia’s leadership to “fully uphold its commitments and obligations”. These commitments mainly include the respect of the Copenhagen criteria on democracy, rule of law, human rights and protection of minorities. In the wake of last year’s protests in Bosnia, the EU insists that socio-economic reforms outlined in a compact for growth and jobs adopted last year are implemented to reduce poverty and inequalities. Scarred by the sequels of the 1992-1995 war that killed around 100,000 people, paralyzed by institutions divided between the Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian community and plagued by endemic corruption, Bosnia is the only Western Balkans country that has not yet formally applied for EU membership. An SAA was signed by the EU and Bosnia in 2008 but no progress was made until late 2014 when the German and British foreign ministers launched an initiative to revive the agreement. Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Philip Hammond proposed to conclude the SAA in exchange for a written commitment from Bosnia party leaders to make socio-economic and administrative reforms. On 23 February, during a visit by the EU chief diplomat Federica Mogherini to Sarajevo, the Bosnian parliament unanimously adopted a declaration committing the country to EU demands. The SAA will allow Bosnia to benefit from EU financial and technical assistance and from tariff free access to EU markets for some of its products. The next step for the country, formal accession talks with the EU, remain a long-term perspective, however. “Meaningful progress on the implementation of agenda for reforms will be necessary for a membership application to be considered by the European Union,” said EU ministers in a statement.

Bosnia’s Radoncic Accused at Kelmendi Drug Trial in Kosovo (Hetq, by Valerie Hopkins, 17 March 2015)

Bosnian politician and media mogul Fahrudin Radoncic allegedly claimed to have the final word on any assassinations or other illicit activity conducted by alleged drug dealer Naser Kelmendi, a court heard. Witness Sejla Turkovic testified at the court in Pristina on Monday that Radoncic told her that he had the right of approval over Kelmendi’s actions. Radoncic features prominently in the 49-page indictment against Kelmendi, who is charged with being the head of a major trafficking ring ferrying drugs from Afghanistan to western Europe, with the Bosnian capital Sarajevo as the hub. Radoncic heads the political party Union for a Better Future, and served as Bosnia’s Minister of Security from 2012 to 2014. Turkovic, formerly a journalist at Dnevni Avaz, a newspaper owned by Radoncic, recalled her first meeting with Kelmendi in 2004 at a hotel that the mogul owned in Sarajevo, the Radon Plaza. “After Mr. Kelmendi left, Radoncic said, ‘He is a dangerous man, he is a drug dealer, and that if someone has to be killed, he is the one to do so, you just hire him,’ ” Turkovic testified. “Radoncic said, ‘No matter how dangerous [Albanians] are, they still have to approach me and ask me for approval,’” she continued. Radoncic has denied involvement in the case. Turkovic testified that after her initial meeting with Kelmendi, he called her “on hundreds of occasions” to give her instructions about people she should not write about in her “Black Chronicles” series in the newspaper about organised crime and corruption. “What has stayed with me specifically is an article I was writing about a person from the Sandzak who was dealing drugs in Serbia and Germany,” she said. “After I wrote that text and that information, Mr. Kelmendi called me and said, ‘Please don’t write anything more about this person.’” Turkovic said that she was forbidden from writing about gangsters ‘Muhamed’ Ali Gashi, Darko Elez, and current Bosnian presidency member Dragan Covic, while Kelmendi asked her to write articles discrediting Asim Fazlic, who was then director of Bosnia’s branch of Interpol. In what was dubbed the largest organised crime trial in Bosnia in two decades, Turkovic’s husband Zijad Turkovic was sentenced to 40 years in prison in November 2013 for running an organized crime ring that included drug trafficking, several counts of murder, and robbery. Sejla Turkovic is under 24-hour police protection and is escorted at all times by armed guards.

The trial continues on Tuesday.

Russia in the Balkans: Perceptions and Realities (Balkan Insight, by Dimitar Bechev, 17 March 2015)

The pragmatic interests of the Balkan states – which lie in the direction of Europe – are imposing limits on the Kremlin’s drive to regain influence in the region

As Russia and the West clash over the fate of Ukraine, will the next battleground be in the Balkans? The hero’s welcome that President Vladimir Putin received in Belgrade in mid-October raised eyebrows across EU capitals, as did the reluctance of Serbia and next-door Macedonia to join the Western sanctions. Rising anxiety has led to a flurry of tough statements, including from the European Union’s foreign and security chief, Federica Mogherini, whom many have seen as a soft-liner, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The message to the Kremlin: keep out from ex-Yugoslavia, this is EU turf. European concerns resound across the pond, too. The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, who visited Sofia in January, recently opined that, thanks to historic links with Russia, Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo were “in the line of fire”, just like the Baltic states, Georgia, Moldova and Transnistria. In reality, relations between Belgrade and Moscow carry the “it’s complicated” tag. Russia’s cancellation of the South Stream gas pipeline last December was a sobering reminder of the pitfalls of cosying up to Russia and triggered tensions, albeit under the surface. Balkan watchers are taking note of Serbia’s extensive coverage of Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic’s decision to contract former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as an advisor.

For all the rhetoric about a shared past, Slavic brotherhood and Orthodox links – readily embraced by the global media – the Balkan countries have pursued pragmatic policies. These are more than matched by the Kremlin whose moves also are driven by self-interest and by domestic political considerations than by historical attachments. That was one of the key messages heard at a conference on Russia in the Balkans held by LSEE-Research on Southeast Europe and South East European Studies at Oxford, SEESOX, last Friday. Gathering academics, government officials, journalists and business people, the event was an opportunity for students of Southeast European affairs to compare notes with some of Russia’s top political analysts. The panels ranged from the Balkans’ place in Moscow’s overall foreign policy to Russian involvement in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, and from energy politics and Russia’s investment in the local economies to its cultural appeal in Bulgaria, Serbia and the rest of South East Europe.

Some of the key points worth highlighting were:

1.   Russia is back to the Balkans in order to score points against the West by exploiting loopholes and blind spots in its policy. Unlike with Russia’s “near abroad”, the overarching goal is not to roll back NATO and EU enlargement but to build influence in countries that are either part of Western clubs, or are well on their way to joining them, and are therefore useful “door openers”.

2.   Russia may lack a long-term vision but is an accomplished tactical player and, unlike its competitors, takes swift decisions and acts flexibly. The Kremlin distrusts local elites but then, as a colleague from Moscow put it, it “does not trust in trust” in the first instance, preferring money and coercion. In a crisis-stricken Balkans, rife with clientelism and state-capture, it is mostly the money that comes into play. What is more, funds channelled into Southeast Europe find their way back to the Kremlin establishment, which both rules and owns Russia.

3.   Starting from the late 1990s, Russian energy firms such as Lukoil and Gazprom have made inroads into Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Over time, the Kremlin has harnessed economic interdependence. Yet, a leading position in the oil sector and a monopoly in gas does not always bring it political leverage. Montenegro, where a third of all registered companies are linked to Russia, joined EU sanctions on Russia. Furthermore, investment by Russia, including in such sectors as banking, real estate, tourism, is dwarfed by that of the EU. Also, gas plays a minor role in the region’s energy consumption, so dependence on Russia should not be over-estimated. However, Balkan elites bet on the failed South Stream as a great commercial and political opportunity and took a hit when the pipeline was called off.

4.   While few Russians in the 1990s could tell a Serb from a Croat, Putin has turned Kosovo into a key part of the narrative concerning the West’s humiliation of Russia. Its setback in 1999 and 2008 is a “scratch that Putin chose to turn into a wound”. The Balkans are central to the Kremlin’s narrative about the post-Cold War normative order being broken, which is deployed both externally and inside Russia as part of the regime’s quest for legitimacy. Any diplomatic and political breakthroughs in the Balkans win plaudits domestically and partly offset losses in the post-Soviet space.

5.   Russia and Putin personally enjoy popularity in Serbia and other Balkan countries because of the resentment felt towards the West over the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Muscular foreign policy resonates with a deep-seated view that “might is right”, only that this time around the West is on the receiving end. But, when the push comes to shove, elites and citizens in the region opt for the EU and the West – a fact well understood by Russian policymakers.

6.   Russia has soft power in the Balkans but it is uneven. With the possible exception of Bulgaria, Russian is not widely read or spoken in the region. Yet, the rhetoric of brotherly ties coupled with a shared sense of victimhood bolsters Russia’s moves and initiatives.