LOCAL PRESS

Chinese, Serbian Presidents to sign strategic cooperation agreement in Belgrade (Beta)

During an upcoming visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Belgrade, Serbia and China will sign a declaration on comprehensive strategic partnership and several major treaties. The comprehensive strategic partnership declaration is to develop relations with China in the future, a foreign affairs adviser to the Serbian President, Ivan Mrkic, said in an interview with Beta. Mrkic has said the declaration will be the second joint statement signed by the two presidents, who signed their first in Beijing, in 2013. “The title of the declaration speaks of the existing strategic partnership, which is now made more comprehensive,” Mrkic explained.

Vucic: We remain devoted to EU membership (RTS/Tanjug)

Serbia’s EU path remains a strategic one, irrespective of daily political circumstances or anyone’s personal relationships, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic told a press conference in the Serbian government. “Serbia’s strategic course and policy are not changing and Serbia will continue on its European path, but it will also continue its cooperation with Russia, China and other countries. Our policy steers the course that is bringing the best results to our citizens. Serbia does not change its policy in a day or two as the policy was designed to best suit the interests of Serbia and its citizen” he said. Vucic also said that that he would recommend Igor Mirovic for the President of the Vojvodina government. He said he believed that Mirovic had the necessary energy for this job, and that it was necessary for the Vojvodina institutions to be constituted as soon as possible so everyone could assume their part of the job ahead of us. In that context, he said that the government in Vojvodina would be formed next week.

Djuric: Mechanism for returning property to displaced lacking (Tanjug)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric has stated that Serbia presently has 204,049 displaced persons from the southern Serbian province, pointing out that the return of Serbs and non-Albanians to Kosovo and Metohija is limited due to the lack of the mechanism for returning usurped property. At the third regional high-level forum on lasting solutions for displaced persons from Kosovo and Metohija, Djuric said that the problem of displaced persons exists even after 17 years since the end of the conflict in the southern Serbian province. According to him, large funds have been set aside over the past years for taking care of the internally displaced persons and improving their position, as well as strategies completed for supporting them that were assisted by the EU from IPA funds. Djuric stresses that, despite all efforts, the problem remains, since internally displaced persons cannot realize their individual rights in the place of origin. That is why this issue cannot be resolved without a coordinated set of activities of all interested parties, towards establishing an adequate implementation framework in Kosovo and Metohija, said Djuric. “The fact is that 17 years after the conflict these people do not have the right to freely return to their homes, to receive back their usurped property, or to be compensated for the one that cannot be returned to them. This obliges us all to continue in good faith to work in a constructive and timely manner towards improving their position,” said Djuric. He adds the question is also being raised in regard to the respect of assumed obligations for realizing the agreed measures from the adopted action plans, pointing to certain members of the technical working group in Pristina. Djuric pointed out that the return of Serbs and non-Albanians was limited due to the lack of the mechanism for returning usurped property, noting that one should not allow for the Skopje Initiative to become only a forum for exchanging opinions. He called on all participants of the initiative to continue with the realization of agreed measures and action plans in line with the agreed principles and deadlines, but also international actors in Kosovo and Metohija to actively support the efforts for resolving the problem of internally displaced persons.

Kosovo Minister for Communities and Returns Dalibor Jevtic spoke about the “Sunny Valley” project, noting this is the first successful project for the return of displaced persons. According to him, numerous institutions have over the past years dealt with the process and resolution of the problem of displaced persons, whereby there were more unsuccessful stories, such as the empty settlements Babusa, Babljak, Klobukara and Zociste. The “Sunny Valley” project gives answers to all important questions posed by displaced persons – where and in what conditions will they live, will they have the possibility of employment, healthcare, access to education, what kind of safety will they have upon return. “It is important that we ensure, today and in the following period, through existing processes, all legally assumed obligations so the ‘Sunny Valley’ project would be successful and help the reconciliation process that is much needed,” said Jevtic.

Vulin: Belgrade not to accept migrants forcibly turned back (Tanjug)

The Serbian authorities will not allow forcible transfers of migrants from Hungary, or any other country, to the territory of Serbia, Serbian Labor Minister Aleksandar Vulin announced this on Tuesday, a day after Hungary passed a law allowing its police to return migrants from the Middle East, who arrived in Hungary via Serbia. Vulin said that Belgrade will seek an explanation from Hungarian colleagues about the new law, adding, no country can impose obligations onto another. “If Serbia behaved like that, there would be a domino effect from here to Turkey,” the Minister remarked as he spoke to reporters. According to Vulin, the new Hungarian legislation is not something that can be implemented. He also stressed that Serbia’s authorities will not allow anyone’s forcible transfer from Hungary or any other country to the territory of Serbia. “There are laws that are above national legislation, therefore, there are international laws, and it is known in what way a person can be sent back from some country. As far as we are concerned only international law will apply in that regard to relations between Hungary and Serbia,” said Vulin. He added that Serbia will not be a parking lot for migrants, a space that people will be sent to just because someone decided to do it. Vulin said that the new Hungarian law implies that persons could be sent back to the Serbian territory even without an agreement, a deal, talks and international law, and described this as absolutely unacceptable to us. “Serbia cannot allow anyone to pass laws that create an obligation for it, and we will not accept such an obligation,” said Vulin. Asked whether the readmission agreement between the two countries is functioning, he said that it was – but applied only to Serbian and Hungarian citizens. “There is no readmission agreement that applies to nationals of other countries,” said Vulin.

Kocijancic: We expect Vucic in Brussels once government is formed (Tanjug)

The EU expects Serbia’s future Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic to visit Brussels once the new government in Belgrade is formed, Tanjug has learned in Brussels. We expect a visit by the Serbian prime minister once the government is formed and sworn in, European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic told Tanjug when asked if a visit by Vucic had been planned and then cancelled. Regular contacts with Serbian officials are underway but an official visit by the prime minister can be organized and announced only after a government is formed in Belgrade, sources at the European Commission headquarters told Tanjug. Serbia has gone through an electoral period and there are many topics that should be discussed now, including a continuation of the dialogue with Pristina, diplomatic sources in Brussels explained. Sources in the Council of the EU said that there is still no official information on a potential scheduling of a conference on the opening of Chapters 23, 24 and 5 in Serbia’s EU accession talks.

Germany: Serbia will have to introduce sanctions to Russia (Danas)

Within diplomatic efforts of appeasing the situation in the Balkans, Germany will most probably request, if problems continue between the EU and Western countries with Russia, Serbia to do the same thing as Montenegro, i.e. to introduce sanctions to Russia, sources close to German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Danas. This highly positioned official told Danas that “Germany doesn’t understand the necessity of opening the Serbian-Russian Humanitarian Center for emergency situations in Nis”. “Do you have some emergency situation,” wondered this interlocutor, adding that “Prime Minister Vucic during his visit to Germany and talks with Merkel told a different story on ties with Russia”. “If Serbia wants to join the EU, you will not be able to sit on two chairs at the same time,” said this interlocutor who is in charge of foreign affairs in the Bundestag. This is also one of the reasons why the MPs of the ruling coalition will ask Merkel for “Balkans to be again in the focus and on the agenda of the German foreign policy”.

REGIONAL PRESS

B&H Council of Ministers to discuss census (Klix)

The B&H Council of Ministers will discuss on Tuesday, 14 June, information on the current status of activities on the processing of results of census of population, households and apartments in B&H in 2013. On the agenda of the Council of Ministers is also the information on previous preparations and precondition for the start of drafting the Program of integration of B&H into the EU. The ministers will also take a look at the report on the execution of the budget of B&H institutions and international obligations of B&H for the first 3 months of this year. On the agenda is also the Resolution on rejection of the construction of warehouse and landfill of radioactive waste, used resources and used nuclear fuel and the opposition to activities regarding the construction of warehouses and landfills on Trgovska gora, in the Municipality of Dvor in Croatia. Information on the activities on the preparation of the document “Defense Review” will be discussed as well. The Council of Ministers of B&H will discuss the Proposition of Action Plan for the implementation of the strategy for preventing and combating terrorism (2015-2020) and Proposition of medium-term program of work of the Council of Ministers of B&H 2017 – 2019. The Council of Ministers of B&H will discuss the information on the possibility of use of the sectorial budget support in the framework of the IPA two and sectorial strategic documents required for the use of IPA two. On the agenda is also the Report of the work of the Commission for Integrated Border Management B&H for the last year. Ministers will also discuss the Draft of the Agreement on the financing of the Cross-border cooperation program between B&H and Serbia and Montenegro in 2015, between the European Commission, B&H and the governments of Serbia and Montenegro, with the basis for starting the procedure for their conclusion.

Izetbegovic’s visit to Kazani is a contribution to reconciliation (Novo vrijeme)

Chairman of the B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic laid flowers and paid tribute to the killed Serb civilians on Kazani above Sarajevo, for the sake of reconciliation and mutual respect. “I had a feeling like I am obligated to express my reverence on Kazani and express condolences to families whose members lost their lives here, in a terrible way,” Izetbegovic said, stating that he should have come to Kazani earlier. Izetbegovic stated that everything should be done so that such events never occur again, hoping that this visit will have “one positive political effect”. Other politicians who joined Izetbegovic were Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers Denis Zvizdic, Chairman of the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of B&H Sefik Dzaferovic, Prime Minister of the Federation of B&H Fadil Novalic and Prime Minister of the Sarajevo Canton Elmedin Konakovic, as well as representatives of associations of families of the killed ones. Officials expressed readiness to find mortal remains on Kazani given that the number of the killed persons was never officially determined. Remains of about 30 people were exhumed from the pit. “Families of the killed are afraid that this might be an end on Kazani. That is why I asked Izetbegovic to intervene and enable the search of Kazani. If there are no more remains in the pit, then he should order those who hid the bodies to tell us where they are hidden,” said the President of the Association of the families of the missing persons in the Sarajevo-Romanija region, Milan Mandic. Mandic said that Izetbegovic’s visit is an encouraging gesture which should be performed by other members of the Presidency of B&H, Dragan Covic and Mladen Ivanic. “This is the place from where we should start building coexistence and future in Sarajevo,” Mandic said. Fourteen soldiers of the Army of RB&H were convicted for crimes on Kazani. Their sentences range from ten months to six years in prison.

Interview with High Representative Valentin Inzko (Vecernji list)

Can the publication of census results cause a new political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H)? Serb parties are united in rejecting the publication of results according to the present methodology?

Valentin Inzko: I somewhat understand the tensions, but these tensions will not solve anything. As I have said before, I believe that the B&H Statistics Agency Director, Velimir Jukic, acted fully within his mandate and in accordance with the law and international standards. And the International Community has given him full and untied support during last week’s PIC. International advisors have been in B&H some 25 times, and international standards have been observed. Finally, there is a very clear B&H Law on the Census, supported and adopted by all political factors and constituent peoples. I would also like to sharply reject those who claim that the census results must be based on consensus of all leaders. This is utterly wrong. The results must be based on law and nothing else. Also, the 1st of July deadline must be respected.

What does the population share of a particular people in B&H mean when it comes to the future, functioning and the decision-making process of this country?

Absolutely nothing! Anyone who thinks that pure numbers can be used as a set of political muscles, to turn things around in terms of how the legal framework of B&H works, is sadly mistaken. That could only further complicate and jeopardize the internal relations. B&H needs constructive dialogue, trust and cooperation, and not numerical muscles. B&H has its Constitution, a prescribed legal framework for decision-making, and procedures for how things ought to be changed. This has nothing to do with a head-count of any ethnic group. Bosnia and Herzegovina needs to move beyond this kind of thinking quickly. All this political energy needs to be directed towards resolving real issues like corruption. Imagine if all this political energy was directed at fighting corruption. Why don’t we try that?

Do you fear that the election campaign will further radicalize the political relations in the country?

Valentin Inzko: I am afraid that some effects can already be seen. At this point I will not mention names but there are some who obviously cannot resist the temptation to divert voters’ attention from the real problems of the country by raising ethnic tensions. It is very sad to hear some of the statements as you would expect people to know better in 2016, especially with a clear EU perspective in sight. I would remind you that the PIC Steering Board has clearly stated in its Communique issued after the Wednesday session that all political, social and religious leaders in B&H need to work on advancing reconciliation, mutual understanding and tolerance, and refrain from negative and divisive policies, actions and rhetoric. This will only divert energy from the urgent reforms needed to create economic opportunities and provide young people with hope for a future in B&H. What I am particularly sensitive about, and I hope that such episodes will not be repeated, is the need for leaders on any side to stop praising or celebrating war criminals. This is totally unacceptable. Everyone says they want to join the EU, but such behavior is totally non-European. What this country needs is positive leadership and statesman-like behavior. We could usefully do with a bit more of that.

Certain parties are calling upon you to use your powers and impose a solution for the elections in Mostar. Are you considering this option?

Valentin Inzko: In its decision, the Constitutional Court of B&H clearly tasked the Parliamentary Assembly, or in essence, the political parties and their leadership. They need to sit down with their counterparts and work to find a solution. Do the politicians understand they owe it to the citizens? Not to me or to the international community, but to the citizens. As for the international community, I can reaffirm our core principle that Mostar must remain a single, coherent, multi-ethnic unit of local self-government, with some level of local authority/administration below that of the city. This principle was reflected in this week’s PIC SB Communique, where the PIC SB called upon all parties, in particular SDA and HDZ B&H, to reach a compromise by the beginning of July to allow voters in Mostar to exercise their basic right to vote for the first time in eight years. They are running out of time. They need to find a solution now. After so many years there can be no more excuses or empty promises. We expect results now. I repeat: I am not going to do their job for them. I want to be clear on this. But my office is ready to undertake a facilitation process if the majority of Mostar parties and the International Community would wish so.

HDZ official: Parliament to vote on PM’s impeachment today (Hina)

The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) Presidency unanimously decided to give Prime Minister Tihomir Oreskovic a vote of no confidence in parliament and nominate Zdravko Maric as the HDZ’s prime minister designate, Maric, the incumbent finance minister, and Domagoj Milosevic, the party’s secretary-general, said on Monday. “The HDZ is confident that in a vast majority of EU countries, it would be natural for the prime minister to resign after everyone in the government said they had no confidence in each other,” Milosevic told the press after a three-hour session of the HDZ presidency. He underscored there was a parliamentary majority prepared to support the government with Maric at its helm. Milosevic said there was a significant difference between Maric and Oreskovic. “Maric understands political context, he was a member of previous governments, he knows political players and understands political relations. Apart from that, he has indisputable professional credibility in the finance sector and the economy and experience in both public and private sectors,” Milosevic said. Maric said he told the HDZ Presidency he was honored by the decision nominating him as prime minister designate. I am aware of the moment we live and which our state is in, and we need political and financial stability, Maric said. It is in the interest of us all to put things in order and peace, he added. Asked if he feared the same fate would befall him as Oreskovic who, just like him, is not a member of the HDZ, Maric said he did not want to speculate about fears and fate. “I am deeply aware of the moment we are in. My contacts in the domestic economic sector and international financial circles are clearly saying that political stability is clearly important for Croatia. If I am that person I am prepared for challenges,” Maric.

Indictment against Serb paramilitary leader upheld (Hina)

An indictment against Serb paramilitary leader Dragan Vasiljkovic, aka Captain Dragan, charged with war crimes against POWs and civilians in southern and central Croatia, was upheld by the Split County Court on Monday, which paves the way for organizing a trial against him soon. In mid-April, Vasiljkovic filed an appeal against his indictment, prompting the Split County Court to delay a decision on upholding the indictment. This former commander of a special purpose unit within Serb paramilitary forces is suspected of violating the Geneva Conventions by torturing and killing Croatian prisoners of war in a prison in Knin in June and July 1991 and in Bruska near Benkovac in February 1993. He is also suspected of planning, in July 1991 in Glina, in agreement with the commander of a Yugoslav People’s Army (JNA) tank unit, an attack on the police station in Glina, its suburb of Jukinac and the villages of Gornji Vidusevac and Donji Vidusevac. The prosecution alleges that during the attack civilian properties were damaged or destroyed, the local population was forced to flee their homes, their property was plundered and civilians were killed and wounded, including a foreign reporter. Vasiljkovic, who was born in Belgrade and has Australian citizenship, was extradited from Australia to Croatia in July last year. He denies all the charges. After taking part in the Serb rebellion in Croatia, he returned to Australia where he lived under the name Daniel Snedden in Perth and worked as a golf instructor. Vasiljkovic managed to delay his extradition in 2013 after an Australian judge granted an appeal in which he claimed that he had an unjust process in Australia due to procedural errors. The Australian Supreme Court, however, rejected the appeal.

Organization behind protests in Macedonia “CANVAS” is as dangerous as Al Qaeda and Islamic State (Telegraf.mk)

The organization that is behind protests in Macedonia and which is training the activists of the so-called “Colorful Revolution” is black-listed in many countries. Since several years ago, CANVAS has been considered as being on the same level as al Qaeda, IS, Boko Haram and other terrorist organizations in Russia, Iran, United Arab Emirates and a few other countries. Members are banned from entrance to those countries along with their leaders Srgja Popovic and Slobodan Gjinovic, who are undoubtedly working with Soros NGOs on bringing the Macedonian government down in a violent manner. CANVAS is not hiding the fact that it is working in Macedonia; our country is even registered on their internet page. But, What Kind of Organization is CANVAS? CANVAS is an NGO, established in 2004 by Popovic and Gjinovic. Their main activity is preparing a scenario for a country where the government has a massive support from the people. In other words, their job is causing disturbances and wars. That was the case in Egypt, Syria, Ukraine, Tunisia and in many other European and Middle Eastern countries. The model which they offer costs about EUR 10-50 million, which have to be transferred to their bank account after a “successfully” realized action and a violent tear down of a government. They succeeded in doing this in 2000 when Slobodan Milosevic was removed from power in Serbia. At that time CANVAS was called “Resistance” or “Otpor”, and it was headed by Popovic and Cedomir Jovanovic, who is currently leader of the Liberal-Democratic party. That CANVAS receives a lot of money is clear if taken into consideration that Jovanovic and Popovic are one of the richest people in Serbia, while many of their friends from “Resistance” became welfare cases or committed suicide. Encouraged by the removal of Slobodan Milosevic, “Resistance” transformed into a political party in 2004, but, the Serbian citizens quickly learned what kind of people they are, and they only won one percent of their votes. The party swiftly turned into the Democratic Party. In his book “Blueprint for Revolution”, forty-three year old Popovic gives details on how they tore down governments and how anyone that is interested in doing this can give him a call. CANVAS and I are dubbed Soros mercenaries, Serb agents, terrorists and other derogatory names, Popovic says. CANVAS activists gave lectures to the current leaders of ‘Colorful Revolution’ two years ago. Tactics were clearly elaborated, which was seen during protests with the paint-balling of the monuments, coloring the water of the fountains, mirroring the policemen…etc. But, to keep everything under control, Serbian activists were frontrunners in the beginning of protests in Skopje. Many of them could be seen protesting with black flags and a clenched fist and yelling “Come on louder now”, or “Come on with the whistles”.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

New law allows Hungary police to return migrants beyond border fence (Reuters, 13 June 2016)

Hungary passed a law on Monday that allows police to send back illegal migrants detained within eight kilometers (five miles) of its southern frontier to the Serbian side of the border fence, drawing criticism from the U.N. refugee agency, Reuters reports. A razor¬wire fence built along Hungary’s southern border with Serbia and Croatia has helped to reduce sharply the flow of migrants from the hundreds of thousands who last year moved up from the Balkans towards northern Europe, especially Germany. However, a steady trickle of migrants is still arriving at Hungary’s border with Serbia. Budapest has set up two transit zones there where migrants can submit a request for asylum. “The aim … is to allow (the authorities) to escort back across the gates of the border defence facility third-country nationals who are in Hungary illegally and who were detained within eight km of the border,” the reasoning of the law said. Serbian officials were not immediately available to comment. So far this year Hungary has registered 19,140 asylum applications and more than 14,000 migrants have crossed its southern borders illegally, according to government data. Hungary has recently limited the number of daily admissions into the transit zone to a maximum of 30, government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said last week. Kovacs added that Hungary was following European and international law as well as Hungarian protocols for admission. That narrow bottleneck has caused migrants to amass in makeshift camps near the transit zones. The camps are still on Hungarian territory but on the southern side of the fence. The U.N. refugee agency said the new law approved by Hungary’s parliament would only exacerbate the situation of those waiting to be able to submit an asylum application. Erno Simon, a UNHCR spokesman in Budapest, said it would force migrants to wait outside the transit zones and could prompt many to turn to human traffickers. “Obviously, this will only exacerbate the inhumane conditions at the two transit zones,” Simon said. Another rights group, the Hungarian Helsinki Committee, accused the government of wanting to keep the number of migrants as low as possible. Helsinki Committee co¬chair Marta Pardavi said that, based on the new legislation, police would escort migrants back to the other side of the fence to the transit zones where they would have to queue without basic amenities. This way migrants would basically be “booted out” of the country, she said. “Instead of providing proper treatment and procedures prescribed by law, the aim is to have … no asylum seekers arriving in Hungary,” Pardavi added.

Bosnian children with Islamic State are ‘time bomb’, study says (Reuters, by Daria Sito-Sucic, 13 June 2016)

SARAJEVO – More than 80 Bosnian children are in Islamic State-held territory in Syria and Iraq and represent a “time bomb” that could pose a major security risk when they return, a study said on Monday. Bosnian Muslims are the largest group from the Western Balkans fighting for Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, alongside fighters from countries such as Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. The study by the non-profit Sarajevo-based Atlantic Initiative, which made an advance copy available to Reuters, found that the number of adult male fighters, estimated at 188 in the three-year period to end-2015, had dropped to 91, after 47 returned to Bosnia and 50 had been killed. As of April, less than half of Bosnians in Syria were men of military age, while there were also 52 women and 80 children. Some children, who went to the region with their families, have joined Islamic State combat units, the study said.

According to witnesses and social media, boys of 13 or 14 undergo military training before being sent to join fighting formations. At least one minor from Bosnia had been killed as a combatant, the study said, urging Bosnian authorities to prevent children from being taken to conflict zones.

“We are seeing a completely new generation of children who were raised on the battlefield or near the battlefield,” said Vlado Azinovic, a co-author of the study. “They are like a time bomb for any country they may end up in.” Departures from Bosnia and returns from Syria had almost completely stopped by early 2016 because Bosnian authorities were prosecuting more aspiring fighters as well as those who returned, the study said. Bosnia’s Muslims are generally moderate but some have adopted radical Salafi Islam from foreign fighters who came to the country during its 1992-95 war to fight alongside Muslims against Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats.

Some of them have formed illegal communities which the moderate national Islamic organization wants to shut down. The study said Islamic community officials or property may become a target of possible retaliatory attacks.

(Reporting by Daria Sito-Sucic; Editing by Giles Elgood and Richard Balmforth)

Without the EU, old demons will return to the Balkans (The National, by Faisal Al Yafai, 13 June 2016)

In just over a week, the UK will vote on whether to leave the European Union. What started as a family dispute within the Conservative party has spilled out into a vote that could irrevocably change the country. The British are not alone in their distaste for the European project. Europeans in many EU countries are uncertain what Europe is for, whether it is working for them and whether it was a good idea to join in the first place. In European political circles, it is called “enlargement fatigue”, the belief that the union needs to adjust to the shock of 2004, when ten countries joined in the largest enlargement in the EU’s history. The continent was still wrestling with the consequences of that, when the financial crisis of 2008 hit, throwing many of the southern European members into turmoil. The result has been that the countries waiting to enter the EU, mainly the western Balkan countries of Albania, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia, have had their discussions stalled. Hanging over the British discussion around Brexit, as it hangs over the discussion of the EU in other countries, is the possibility of more countries coming in. The implicit suggestion, sometimes made explicitly, is that Europe is “full”. Yet Europe has forgotten the real reason for enlargement. It is not a favour or reward for poorer countries. It is a security imperative. The EU has helped to tame the political demons on the continent. Continuing to exclude the Balkans makes it more likely that some of those demons will return.

Patience is running out

The leaders of both Serbia and Albania have warned the EU about this. Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama has often returned to his theme that the region has “patience fatigue” and that “if patience is over, the Balkans will become identified with bloodshed”. Too many in Europe have taken those warnings as threats. Rather, they are a recognition of the political realities of a complex and intertwined continent. More than once, serious conflict has engulfed the Balkans and involved Europe. If further conflict occurs, borders and walls will not keep that conflict from Europe – as the Syrian refugee crisis, on a different continent, cannot be kept out. Indeed, refusing entry to the Balkan countries will not make Europe safer. It will actually bring about the very problems it is seeking to avoid. Here’s why. Countries are built on ideas, especially ideas about who they are and where they are going. In the Balkans, so often riven by conflicts and ethnic faultlines, those divisions have not gone away. They have been calmed and constrained by hope in a better future inside the EU. But if that future does not materialise, the old enmities will reappear. Europeans in the EU should understand this better than most. The Union was a response to a bloody history of competing nationalisms and xenophobia. That history has not gone away, it has merely been constrained by the peace and prosperity that the EU has helped bring about. Even today, as the economies of the continent fray, the old nationalisms are reappearing. The European project was really about creating a new, more useful set of ideas. Replacing the old ideas of competition with a belief in progress through cooperation. The European Union was a vehicle for a political idea. Europeans who believe old enmities can vanish are mistaken. They have not left Europe and have not left the Balkans. In many cases, these enmities cannot be eradicated. They can only be constrained. If the people of the Balkans no longer believe in the political vehicle of the EU and its ideas, they will seek other ideas about who they are and where they are going, with devastating results. Look across the Bosphorus and it is clear what happens when belief in the future collapses. Racism has not historically been such a problem for the Arab world as for Europe, but sectarianism has been. I’ve written before about my belief that the sectarianism the region is living through is not genuinely based in ancient hatreds but in modern politics. Yet those fault lines are there. For a long time, they were constrained by political ideas – whether the nationalism of Iraq or the enforced secularism of Syria. But once those ideas collapsed, along with the states that were the political vehicles for them, the old fault lines reappeared. The people in the Middle East began to look for new political ideas, new ways of defining who they were and where they were going. And, as with the Balkans, as with the rest of Europe, as with every part of this cramped planet, there were plenty of ugly enmities lying in wait. The wars in the Middle East should be a warning to the European Union. When political ideas fail, the demons of the past can return. And then, walls are little use.