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Belgrade Media Report 14 September

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STORIES FROM LOCAL PRESS

• Presidency: Serbia will never accept independence of Kosovo (RTS/Novosti)
• Some progress in telecommunications (Novosti)
• Possible agreement on license plates (Danas)
• Maric: No double teams for ZSO (RTS)
• Mihajlovic: Nis-Merdare-Pristina highway priority (Beta)
• Dacic to head Serbian delegation to Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Venezuela (Beta/Novosti)
• Clark building a power plant in Kosovo (Novosti)

STORIES FROM REGIONAL PRESS

• RS Referendum Commission creates its own central voters’ register (BN TV)
• Zvizdic holds a meeting with ambassadors of EU member states to B&H (TV1)
• Plenkovic expects stable government with clear agenda (Hina)
• IDS official rules out possibility of cooperation with right camp (Hina)
• SDP to launch procedure for leadership election on Thursday (Hina)
• Macedonia Elections: Ad Hoc body for media monitoring adopts work agenda (Telegraf.mk)

RELEVANT ARTICLES FROM INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

• Refugees Pour Out of Turkey Once More as Deal With Europe Falters (The New York Times)
• Macedonia’s Amazing Disappearing Interior Minister (Global Voices)
• Eastern Europe Risks Losing UN Top Job Race (BIRN)

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LOCAL PRESS

 

Presidency: Serbia will never accept independence of Kosovo (RTS/Novosti)

Serbia will never accept independence of Kosovo and Metohija, Serbian presidential adviser Stanislava Pak said in a comment to a statement by German Foreign Office official Michael Roth, who said that, prior to Serbia’s EU accession, everything must be clear regarding Kosovo. “The Constitution of Serbia is clear and the President of the Republic will never violate it. Serbia is militarily neutral and it will never accept independence of Kosovo and Metohija. At the same time, we are fulfilling the conditions for EU accession as long as recognition of Kosovo and Metohija is not required,” Pak told Novosti.

 

Some progress in telecommunications (Novosti)

Some progress has been made after 13 hours of talks between Belgrade and Pristina teams on telecommunications, but some key issues remain opened and they will be examined in the following period. The most significant issues for the Serbian side are those of property, network coverage in Serb regions, legal interception of calls, frequencies…without which there can be no final agreement on the implementation. According to Novosti, EU mediators were satisfied with the seriousness of the approach of the Serbian side. The main topics that were on the table yesterday were the permit for the operating of the daughter company of “Telekom Srbija” in Kosovo and Metohija, the dialing code +383 for Kosovo. From Pristina’s point of view, “Telekom” is “illegally” operating in the north, and this situation would be overcome if this company would take part in the tender where it would receive a license.

 

Possible agreement on license plates (Danas)

Belgrade-Pristina technical talks continued in Brussels yesterday and they will continue today. The main topics are the implementation of the agreement on telecommunications and freedom of movement. Danas unofficially learns “there is a possibility” for the two sides to reach agreement this time, since last week they were “one step away” from a final agreement on mutual recognition of license plates for vehicles from Kosovo and Metohija. Danas’ interlocutors recall that Belgrade and Pristina need to coordinate since the agreement on temporary plates is valid until 1 November.

 

Maric: No double teams for ZSO (RTS)

Minister for Local Self-Administration in the Kosovo government Ljubomir Maric has told Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS) that there are no double teams for drafting the Statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO). Maric says that the political will is important for the work of the Management Team and that there are no reasons that could hinder the work on drafting the Statute. “There is only expert and financial assistance for the Management Team to fulfill its task. This is what the Kosovo Ministry for Administration and Local Self-Administration will work on. Therefore, we will conduct coordination between the team if necessary, all institutions and international factors, we mentioned that the OSCE and all other institutions are here and we welcome their assistance,” said Maric.

 

Mihajlovic: Nis-Merdare-Pristina highway priority (Beta)

Serbian Minister of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure Zorana Mihajlovic said in talks with World Bank Regional Director for South East Europe Ellen Goldstein that the priorities in the coming period would be the realization of projects of regional importance, such as the construction of the Nis-Merdare-Pristina highway and the modernization of the Nis-Dimitrovgrad railway. A statement from the Ministry said that Mihajlovic had stated that cooperating with the WB in several key areas – railway reforms, the construction of Corridor 10, the rehabilitation of roads and improving traffic safety, reforms of land registries and advancing Serbia’s rating on the WB’s doing business list, was important. Goldstein said that Serbia was expected to play an important role in realizing projects and enhancing policy in the area of transportation and trade in the region, because in the focus in the coming period would be on encouraging cooperation between the countries of the West Balkans, implementing reforms and removing barriers to free trade.

 

Dacic to head Serbian delegation to Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Venezuela (Beta/Novosti)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic will head the Serbian delegation to the next Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Venezuela on 17-18 September, the Foreign Ministry reported.

The Ministry said the key reason for the Serbian delegates to travel to Venezuela was to counter international pressure and lobbying for an independent Kosovo. On Margarita Island, Dacic will present Serbia’s views on the activities and role of the Non-Aligned Movement and the matters of importance for Serbia, with a strong focus on Kosovo, the ministry explained in a press release. Dacic will first attend a conference of the foreign ministers of the Non-Aligned Movement on 15-16 September. Of the 86 countries that refused to recognize the independence of Kosovo, 61 are in the Movement. Serbia has been granted observer status in the Movement, bringing together 120 members and 17 observers.

 

Clark building a power plant in Kosovo (Novosti)

Retired general and commander in chief of NATO forces from the time of the bombing of Serbia, Wesley Clark, could soon receive approval for building a thermal power plant in Kosovo, Novosti reports. This plant exploited coal, i.e. production of synthetic oil and gas. Clark’s company “Envidity” launched the procedure for investments worth around 500 million Euros, while the request was approved at the Kosovo government session on 25 August. Now the Kosovo Assembly needs to confirm this government decision. The Assembly Commission on Economic Development postponed yesterday’s voting on sending the government’s decision to issue a coal research license to the company. “This is a novelty for me that general Wesley Clark is behind the mentioned company, but we will certainly gather more information regarding plans of the mentioned company,” Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister Branimir Stojanovic tells Novosti. This company requested permission to search for coal in the region of Metohija, while, unofficially, the works would be financed by some US bank. The southern Serbian province holds around 15.7 billion tons of lignite that can be exploited in the next 200 years. Zink and lead reserves are estimated at around 46 billion tons.

Apart from Clark, former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright and former UNMIK deputy head Jock Covey have remained in Kosovo. The second largest US ACM Company is operating, officially and unofficially, in Kosovo, which is owned by Albright and who used to be interested in purchasing the Post and Telecommunications of Kosovo (PTK), but she gave up under public pressure. However, Albright formed a consortium that is investing in infrastructure, mostly in construction of highways. American Jock Covey heads this consortium.

 

REGIONAL PRESS

 

RS Referendum Commission creates its own central voters’ register (BN TV)

The Republika Srpska (RS) Commission for Implementation of the Referendum on the Day of the RS held its fifth regular session in the premises of the National Assembly of the RS (RSNA) in Banja Luka on Tuesday and discussed activities regarding preparations for the upcoming referendum, due to be held on September 25. The Commission also discussed solving the issue regarding the voters’ lists, given that the Central Election Commission (CEC) of B&H refused to submit them to the Commission. To remind, the Appellate Division of the Court of B&H rejected the appeal of the RS Commission for Implementation of Referendum on the Day of the RS regarding refusal of B&H CEC to deliver the central lists of voters. The Appellate Division explained that the RS Commission does not have competences to file an appeal. The Commission then stressed that it would request lists to be submitted by RS institution, most notably RS Interior Ministry. At Tuesday’s session of the RS Commission for Implementation of the Referendum, it was reiterated that the referendum on the RS Day will be held as planned. The RS Commission also announced that it adopted the central voting list for the RS, saying that 1,219,399 citizens in this entity have the right to vote, including citizens with the RS citizenship who live in the Brcko District. They will be able to vote in Donji Zabar and in Bijeljina. President of the Commission Sinisa Karan underlined that voting material, which is necessary in order to hold the referendum, is ready and that the referendum ballots will be printed in the forthcoming period. He also confirmed that the RS Commission, as well as local commissions, are carrying out preparations within stipulated deadline. “Distribution of voting material to municipal and city commissions will be carried out between September 15 and September 20,” Karan explained. Karan also announced that the RS Referendum Commission intends to appeal B&H Court’s decision regarding refusal of B&H CEC to deliver the central lists of voters. “This is direct violation of Article 13 of the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms,” he stressed.

 

Zvizdic holds a meeting with ambassadors of EU member states to B&H (TV1)

Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers (CoM) Denis Zvizdic held a meeting in Sarajevo on Tuesday with ambassadors of the EU member states to B&H. Zvizdic informed the ambassadors about the progress B&H made on its path to the EU membership, as well as about measures from the Reform Agenda that B&H implemented so far. Speaking about significance of activation of the Membership Action Plan (MAP), Zvizdic stressed that the process of NATO integration in B&H is a synonym for peace and stability and new investment, adding that every new step is a strong message to the prosperity of B&H. Ambassadors of the EU member states to B&H used this opportunity to congratulate Zvizdic and the B&H CoM on the results they achieved.

 

Plenkovic expects stable government with clear agenda (Hina)

Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) leader Andrej Plenkovic said in an interview with the commercial RTL television channel on Tuesday that negotiations with the Bridge party were going well and without ultimatums, adding that he expects to form a stable government with a clear program for the next four years. Plenkovic said that in the negotiations that had only just begun the HDZ was seeking explanations of Bridge’s seven conditions. He said that he saw these conditions as Bridge’s political message that the institutions of the state and political parties should treat people responsibly. “We fully respect Bridge and wish, if possible, to agree cooperation with them. These are talks, or rather explanations of these seven points which Bridge called their small contribution for a better Croatia,” the HDZ leader said. He said they had also had talks with elected representatives of ethnic minorities, but that their joining the government was not discussed. “We did not discuss allocation of government posts to the minorities. I would like the minorities to support the work of the future government and I would like us to agree on modalities of cooperation, but I haven’t discussed specific ministerial posts even with my closest associates, let alone with anyone else,” Plenkovic said. The HDZ leader revealed that in the last two days there had been contacts with some people from the People’s Coalition and with the Croatian People’s Party (HNS), but without any concrete agreements. “There have been some informal contacts … but without any agreements,” he said.

 

IDS official rules out possibility of cooperation with right camp (Hina)

Asked if cooperation with the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) as the relative election winner was an option for his party, the secretary-general of the Istrian Democratic Party (IDS), Giovanni Sponza, said on Tuesday that cooperation with the right political camp was out of the question for the IDS. The IDS has made its position very clear, it belongs to the left political camp, Sponza told a news conference in Pula when asked to comment on HDZ leader Andrej Plenkovic’s statement that his party would discuss government formation with all parties elected to the parliament. “In that regard, we are the most credible party and cooperation with the right camp is out of the question because one man cannot change a party’s habitus overnight. In line with that, if we talk about contribution to economic growth and recovery, which are necessary, being in the Opposition does not rule out the responsibility and obligation to make a contribution through certain legal solutions,” said Sponza. Asked about Zoran Milanovic’s withdrawal from the post of Social Democratic Party (SDP) leader, Sponza said that it was an internal matter of the SDP. He expressed satisfaction with the party’s result in Sunday’s early parliamentary election, achieved in a coalition with the Primorje-Gorski Kotar Party (PGS) and the Slate for Rijeka, describing it as the best election result in the IDS’s history. The IDS won three seats in the 151-seat parliament this past Sunday. Sponza warned that the country was in a deep economic and social crisis and that the IDS therefore expected an end to be put to rigid rhetoric and a step forward to be made towards focusing on what should be done. Croatia has economic growth and the best tourist season ever, but that’s not enough. We all have to focus on economic recovery, investments, employment growth and decentralization, Sponza said.

 

SDP to launch procedure for leadership election on Thursday (Hina)

The leadership of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) meets on Thursday to start the procedure for a party election, and the party is expected to choose a new leader by the end of November or no later than mid-December. The party’s main committee is expected to convene on Saturday to set a date for the leadership election, after Zoran Milanovic said on Monday that he would not seek another term as leader following the SDP’s failure at Sunday’s snap parliamentary election. The SDP’s current member of the European Parliament Tonino Picula and former interior minister Ranko Ostojic have announced their candidacies for the top position in the party. The name of former transport minister Sinisa Hajdas Doncic has also been mentioned in this context, but sources in the SDP have told Hina that he will probably not run and that Milanovic’s close associates will back Ostojic. Zvonimir Mrsic, another possible candidate, denied via social networks on Tuesday that he would run for leadership, saying that his ambitions were tied to the Podravka food company, where he serves as chairman of the managing board. Primorje-Gorski Kotar County head Zlatko Komadina, whom Milanovic defeated in the leadership race in April, was unavailable to comment on whether he intended to run for leadership once again or would support another candidate. The head of the SDP’s Zagreb branch, Davor Bernardic, is also a possible candidate, but in a statement to Hina he did not explicitly confirm whether he would stand in the leadership race or not.

 

Macedonia Elections: Ad Hoc body for media monitoring adopts work agenda (Telegraf.mk)

The ad hoc body for media monitoring has adopted the work agenda according to which one media can be fined only if three out of the total five members of the temporary body decide. In order to hold a session the ad hoc body will need a quorum of 3 members, who if they want to reach a decision – will have to be unanimous. Moreover, the ad hoc body has prepared its first report on the media conduct within a 10-day period. A total of 9 periods have left until Election Day. The ad hoc body consists of Slagjana Dimiskova and Cvetin Celimanov, who were suggested by VMRO-DPMNE, Goran Trpenovski and Ljubomir Kostovski, proposed by SDSM, and Ljuljzim Haziri is the 5th member of the Commission, whose candidacy was settled at the last leader meeting.

 

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

 

Refugees Pour Out of Turkey Once More as Deal With Europe Falters (The New York Times, by Ceylan Yeginsu, 14 September 2016)

BODRUM, Turkey — The number of Syrians and others fleeing Turkey for Greece is growing rapidly once again as an agreement reached months ago to curb the flood of refugees into Europe seems to be on the verge of collapse. Until recently, the deal between Turkey and the European Union, meant to contain the worst refugee crisis faced by the Continent since World War II, seemed to be working quite well. Departures plummeted, and the pressure on European leaders from far-right politicians opposed to migration appeared to ease. But that has started to change. More than a thousand refugees, including Syrians, Afghans, Pakistanis and Iraqis, arrived in Greece last week, nearly double the number the previous week, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. That is still far below the roughly 1,700 refugees arriving in Greece every day at the height of the crisis last year, but far more than the 50 arrivals a day in the relatively placid months after the deal was reached. It is not clear why the number of migrants is rising now. Many of them have lived in Turkey for some time and considered making a life there, difficult though that may be, particularly after hearing of the billions of dollars in aid promised by Europe in the deal, assistance that now seems threatened. For some, it may be the realization, after several months, that their dream of reaching Europe is still within reach because the Greek authorities are not, as promised, sending many Syrians back to Turkey. For others, it might be a matter of simple economics: From a peak of roughly $1,500 a person, the cost of the trip has dropped lately to as little as $500. It could be the approach of winter weather. But clearly, with acrimony between Turkey and Europe rising since the Turkish government responded to a failed coup with widespread purges, the migrant deal is looking increasingly shaky, and Europe faces the prospect of a renewal of a crisis that has already roiled its politics. Trying desperately to prevent that, European officials have engaged recently in a flurry of diplomacy with Turkish leaders. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, and its enlargement commissioner, Johannes Hahn, visited Ankara last week, the highest-level European leaders to travel to Turkey since the failed coup. Ms. Mogherini said the two sides had agreed to “talk more to each other and a little less about each other.” The discord is raising hopes among a host of Syrians and others whose plans were sidetracked when the deal was cinched in March. The other day, one of them, a Syrian named Mohammad Ibrahim, drank tea in the shade of a palm tree on the Turkish coast and looked longingly at Greece, visible across a narrow stretch of the Aegean Sea. He was waiting to meet up at night with smugglers who would help him across the waters. Like many Syrians, he said he had realized that one of the main provisions of the agreement — that migrants who risk their lives on the sea are to be sent back to Turkey — was rarely enforced. “This agreement is only on paper,” said Mr. Ibrahim, 44, who is from the war-torn city of Aleppo. “In practice, they aren’t sending us back to Turkey like they said they would. So now it is time to go.” Under the deal, the European Union pledged more than $6 billion to improve the lives of the more than three million Syrians living in Turkey. It also agreed to renew negotiations for Turkey to join the bloc, a prospect that appears dimmer than ever given the tensions between the two sides since the coup attempt. Turkish leaders feel that Europe should have stood in solidarity with Turkey at a difficult time rather than criticize the crackdown on tens of thousands of people the government said were followers of Fethullah Gulen, the reclusive cleric whom the Turks accused of leading the revolt. Even before the coup, Europe had been criticized for ignoring Turkey’s crackdown on freedom of expression, and the growing authoritarianism of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in order to contain the migrant crisis. After the coup and the purges that followed, it found itself in an even tougher position. “Instead of unequivocally condemning the coup and supporting the elected government’s efforts to bring the putschists to justice, Europe chose to attack Turkey’s leaders for holding the would-be junta accountable for their crimes,” Ibrahim Kalin, Mr. Erdogan’s spokesman, wrote in a recent column titled “Brussels, You’ve Got a Problem.” The main issue threatening to derail the deal is the one that is perhaps most important to Turks: visa-free travel to Europe for Turkish citizens. Turkish leaders have said that visa-free travel should be approved by October, or the deal is off. But in exchange, Turkey is supposed to narrow its broad antiterrorism laws to put them in line with European standards, something it has shown no appetite for. Turkey cites the many security threats it faces, including Kurdish militants waging war in the southeast; the Islamic State, which has carried out numerous bombings in Turkey; and disciples of Mr. Gulen. All along, Mr. Erdogan has threatened to unleash a new flood of refugees if the European Union fails to live up to its side of the deal. “The European Union is not behaving in a sincere manner with Turkey,” he said recently in comments published by the French newspaper Le Monde. Mr. Erdogan says the European Union has not made good on its promises of aid money, although analysts say that is only because identifying programs worthy of funding takes time. Recently, Brussels announced that it would pay almost $400 million to support millions of Syrians living outside refugee camps in Turkey. Mr. Hahn, the enlargement commissioner, expressed confidence that Turkey and the European Union could yet reach a deal on visa-free travel. “The timing is up to our Turkish colleagues,” he told reporters. “But it should be possible to find a solution.” With few refugees being sent back to Turkey, growing numbers are languishing in camps in Greece — not a great outcome, but still on European soil. Nevertheless, for many, Greece has proved a rude awakening. The days of being able to march easily on to other European countries, such as Germany, are long over, and new arrivals often find themselves living in horrid conditions in Greece. “I didn’t imagine I would see refugee families living here in schools and empty hotels,” said Mohammed Ayman, 28, a Syrian who arrived in Greece last week. “Refugees are everywhere. I was shocked by the scene.” On Monday night, Mr. Ibrahim, a carpenter from Aleppo who was wounded this year in fighting there, tried to go to Greece with his family but was unable to do so because of bad weather. He said that he would try again on Tuesday, and that once he arrived, he would try to make it to Germany by bribing police officers and border guards along the way. “We are waiting to leave with 40 other people,” he said. “God willing, we will arrive safely.”

 

Macedonia’s Amazing Disappearing Interior Minister (Global Voices, 14 September 2016)

Macedonia may be one of the only countries in history to have an interior minister for just a single day. Oliver Andonov spent a marvelous few hours in office earlier this month—long enough to pose for some photographs in his office and sign a few documents, including his own resignation letter. (Andonov also managed to approve a number of vital ministerial appointments to entrench his political party ahead of snap elections.) According to the Pržino Agreement, which ended Macedonia’s long-standing political and institutional crisis, the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) had to assign a caretaker minister to ensure that the Interior Ministry couldn’t be used again for electoral fraud by ruling Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE). SDSM proposed making Oliver Spasovski the new interior minister, and he was supposed to take over for Mitko Chavkov on September 2. Just before the formation of a new opposition interim government, however, the ruling party still in power instead appointed Oliver Andonov, who happens to be a vocal activist from their proxy group Civic Movement Defense of Macedonia (GDOM). The ruling VMRO-DPMNE managed to appoint and dismiss a new minister in just two days, in the time between a meeting of leaders from the four biggest parties and the inauguration of the interim government. When it was all done, Andonov had spent less than a day in office. This summer shower will last longer than Oliver Andonov’s mandate. A day before the Pržino Agreement was set to take effect, Interior Minister Chavkov resigned, and the government suggested that Andonov take his place on the cabinet for the little time that remained. The parliament scheduled a debate and a vote on the proposal, and Prime Minister Emil Dimitriev welcomed the appointment, even though it was more symbolic than anything. He even praised Andonov, saying he know the activist would give the job his best. “He is a professor at the Military Academy, and a professor at other institutions of higher education,” Dmitriev said. “From his biography, one can see that his whole professional career is in the field of defense and security. He currently works at the Military Academy. I think that this is a man who, despite not having worked at the Interior Ministry, with his educational credibility and achievements in the field of security, will give his best and professionally carry out his functions as interior minister.” Lawmakers convened and Andonov was appointed unanimously with 65 votes. (Opposition members did not attend the session.) The very next day, Andonov signed and submitted his resignation, and in his place came opposition representative Oliver Spasovski, who will remain minister until elections on December 11. During his tenure of a few hours, Andonov only managed to take a few pictures in the ministerial cabinet, which were subsequently published on the ministry’s official website. Oliver Andonov’s resignation, submitted less than a day after he become Minister of Interior of Republic of Macedonia. This tactical maneuver by the VMRO-DPMNE had a single purpose: to ensure that proven party loyalists would get the Interior Ministry’s top positions ahead of snap parliamentary elections. Once Andonov became minister, he issued a hastily approved proposal to the government to appoint his predecessor Mitko Chavkov as director the Public Security Bureau (BJB), as well as Vladimir Atanasovski as Director of the Security and Counterintelligence Agency (UBK). Recent legislative changes prevent the new minister from firing them on his own, or appointing new people. “With today’s changes in the Interior Ministry by the ruling party, they intend to establish and strengthen their positions before the elections within the ministry itself, which they have no intention of giving up. The Ministry of Interior is the most important institution during the elections and the government wants it to remain under the control of the MVRO-VMRO. As for Oliver Spasovski, they want him to be akin to an English Queen, or—to be more specific—they don’t want him to have any real power while he is sitting at the top,” sources told the Meta.mk news agency. Andonov’s whirlwind tour of government inspired a great deal of ridicule on social media, where Internet users marveled at the man who was interior minister for a day.

 

Eastern Europe Risks Losing UN Top Job Race (BIRN, by Miodrag Vlahovic, 13 September 2016)

The four Eastern European candidates for the post of UN Secretary-General face serious problems – three could be voted down because they are male, while Bulgaria’s Irina Bokova could become a casualty to politics.

Following the fourth straw poll of candidates for the post of UN Secretary-General last Friday, several things have become clear. The first is that the top five candidates are still four men and one woman; four Eastern Europeans and one Western European. So far, the Western European, Antonio Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister and more recently the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, has positioned himself as the candidate to beat. But he faces serious difficulties. Many countries feel that it is the turn of Eastern Europe, which has never held the position of Secretary-General in seventy years of UN history. Most significantly, these countries include the Russian Federation, which will chair the decisive Security Council meetings in November, and is also of course one of the Council’s five permanent members. Guterres’ problem with Russia is faced in reverse by former Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic, who is currently championed by Moscow. Jeremic has a cosy relationship with Moscow over Kosovo and has long been opposed to NATO. Miroslav Lajcak, Slovakia’s foreign minister, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, has been calling for a reset of relations with Moscow. It seems that his current EU-related position has helped him a lot to significantly improve his standings on the list of candidates. Meanwhile former Macedonian Foreign Minister Srgjan Kerim has risen without trace to take an improbable spot among the leaders, though almost half the Security Council – seven of the 15 – are opposed to him. All four of them – Guterres, Lajcak, Jeremic and Kerim – face a fundamental problem with the more progressive parts of the UN. They are men, and just as there has been no Eastern European at the UN’s helm in the last seven decades, there has been no woman. UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova is the only one of the women currently in the race who has received more “encourage” than “discourage” votes from UN Security Council members. If the Russians are serious about wanting an Eastern European, and the Americans and British are serious about wanting a woman, she remains the obvious choice who can unite the Security Council behind her candidacy. However, the centre-right European People’s Party, EPP, in an extraordinary case of translating the petty rivalries of the EU to the global scale, has decided that it must block Bokova, who comes from the centre-left. Pressure from German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been mounting on Bulgaria’s government to support the candidate chosen by the EPP – Kristalina Georgieva, the technocrat vice-president of the European Commission in charge of budget and human resources. Although she is respected in Brussels, very few in UN circles believe that Georgieva has any real chance even if nominated: she has no diplomatic experience and Moscow has already made it clear that it will veto her because she implemented EU sanctions against the Russian Federation. She will meet the same fate as the Costa Rican Christina Figueres and the Moldovan Natalia Gherman, who have been championed respectively by the US and the UK, but who totally failed to gain traction within the UN Security Council. Georgieva is actually in an even worse situation, as neither Brussels nor Berlin has a vote at the UN to support her. Cancelling Bokova’s candidacy – despite her good chance of winning – to replace her with Georgieva – who is a no-hoper – might seem to Prime Minister Boyko Borissov as a good way to please Bulgaria’s financial backers. But it would dramatically backfire as it would definitely remove any chance for Bulgaria to get a UN Secretary-General. This self-inflicted wound would be an unprecedented humiliation for Bulgaria. Borissov is an experienced fighter who has overcome big domestic political challenges; he now faces the most serious test of his international credibility in his career. His political future will probably depend on his decision this week.

Miodrag Vlahovic is a former minister of foreign affairs of Montenegro and the first Montenegrin ambassador to Washington.

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