LOCAL PRESS

Vucic: Serbia will invest everything in order to preserve peace (RTS)

The Republika Srpska (RS) was created by the will of the people and the Dayton peace agreement and will not disappear, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic told Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS)in New York on Wednesday. Vucic said that Serbia has certain obligations under the Dayton agreement. “Let me tell the people fantasizing about toppling Dayton and the disappearance of the RS: the RS was established by the will of the people, the Dayton agreement and Serbia has certain obligations under that agreement. The RS will not disappear,” he said. He said that Serbia needs to preserve stability in the country because everything that happens inside it has an effect on the region. “If we manage to preserve that, we won’t have problems with the economy,” Vucic said and added that Serbia will invest everything into preserving peace. Vucic said that Serbia respects Bosnia-Herzegovina and believes that the relationship between Serbs and Bosniaks is of vital importance to the future. On the other hand, we are afraid of the situation in the region, Vucic said. He said there are “several pebbles in our shoes” in the relationship between Serbia and the international community. Speaking about his meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Vucic said that meeting was important for Serbia and added that he would soon go to NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Vucic: We do not support Republika Srpska referendum (Tanjug)

Serbia is against the holding of the Republika Srpska referendum, but it supports the territorial integrity of Republika Srpska within Bosnia and Herzegovina in line with the Dayton Peace Agreement, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said in New York late Wednesday.

It was very difficult to publicly announce such a position, but our government still did that, Vucic said at the EastWest Institute. At the opening ceremony of a new motorway in Banjaluka I said that to a group of about 5,000 Serbs, urging a calming of the situation – to tell you the truth, I have not heard other Balkan leaders say something similar, Vucic said. Vucic added that he had no problem whatsoever with saying the Serbian government had not backed the referendum, noting that this was a clear government position also supported by the president of Serbia.

Dacic meets ministers from Iraq, Palestine, Morocco on margins of UNGA (Beta)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic met in New York, at the opening of the general debate at the U.N. General Assembly, with the foreign ministers of Palestine, Iraq and Morocco, the Serbian Foreign Ministry stated. Dacic had very successful separate bilateral talks with the foreign ministers of Palestine, Riyad al-Maliki, of Iraq, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, and of Morocco, Salaheddine Mezouar, on the margins of the general debate, the statement reads. Dacic informed Al-Maliki about progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, and said he would visit Palestine soon, while Al-Maliki proposed that a joint business council be formed during his visit, to promote economic relations between Serbia and Palestine, the statement reads. Al-Maliki also pointed out that Palestine was often compared with Kosovo in international relations, which, as he said, is completely unacceptable. According to the statement, Dacic and the foreign minister of Iraq, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, concurred that relations between Serbia and Iraq were good, but that there was room for the improvement of economic cooperation, which would be discussed during Al-Jaafari’s visit to Belgrade. Dacic thanked Al-Jaafari for Iraq’s principled position regarding Kosovo and Metohija. During the talks with the foreign minister of Morocco, Salaheddine Mezouar, Dacic thanked Morocco for its principled stand regarding Kosovo and Metohija and informed him about progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. He asked that Morocco remain steadfast in honoring the principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Dacic also met with the U.S. Undersecretary of State for civilian security, democracy and human rights, Sarah Sewall, and discussed the refugee and migrant crisis. Sewall praised Serbia’s efforts in sheltering the refugees and in finding a lasting solution, and they also considered other issues, including the work of the civil sector, freedom of expression and of the media, the statement reads.

Nikolic: We will not allow surprises (Novosti)

We will not hold a session of the Council for National Security regarding political tensions in B&H, which doesn’t mean that we are not monitoring the situation. We will not allow to be surprised by anyone, Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic told Novosti. He points out that he has gathered all relevant security information after the warmongering messages from Sarajevo. “I had talks with Prime Minister Vucic, representatives of certain services, but also with the Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Army to whom I presented the need for the army to conduct its regular activities with much more attention over the circumstances that we cannot influence and the situation that certainly concerns us.” He says that Serbia has reacted to the incendiary statements from B&H more in order to calm tensions in the region than because it attaches importance to them: “We could discuss political implications after any kind of reaction of Bakir Izetbegovic, which we are rightly expecting. Halilovic is a minor politician and some of our ‘junior’ politicians could debate with him.”

Djuric following the incident: They will not stop the Serbs (Tanjug)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric told journalists that last night in Gracanica there was a gross and illegal attempt of his arrest and deportation from Kosovo. The Kosovo police stopped the vehicle with Djuric in it, and demanded that he departs Kosovo, but later on told him that he will be able to proceed with his visit according to protocol, Tanjug’s correspondent reported from the spot. “With the unity of residents we demonstrated that not even the Kosovo police, which is not present when it needs to protect the Serbs and Serbian sanctuaries, cannot behave as it pleases,” said Djuric. “I think that the shameful attempt of the Kosovo police threw a stain on most of residents of Kosovo, Albanians and all other nationalities,” said Djuric. He said that the reason he was given for their attempt to arrest him was “some violation of the agenda”, which didn’t occur. Djuric had a regularly announced visit to Kosovo and Metohija, which expires on Thursday morning, and which is in line with Belgrade-Pristina agreements.

Pristina wants its “big ear” in Belgrade (Politika, by Dejan Spalovic)

The Kosovo institutions and numerous intelligence services could freely eavesdrop, without any control, the telephone of Aleksandar Vucic and other state officials if Belgrade would agree on Monday, when the dialogue resumes in Brussels, for Pristina to have access to the “Telekom Srbija” system in Kosovo and Metohija. The Belgrade delegation claims that something like that is out of the question and that nobody is even thinking about this possibility. The problem of telecommunications is one of the unresolved issues in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue that could be a brake on Serbia’s EU path. The Brussels Agreement of 25 August last year envisages that, on the one side, Serbia requests a dialing code for Kosovo and Metohija, which it will concede, as Serbia’s ownership, to Pristina for usage. The Kosovo authorities have committed to provide the state national company “Telekom Srbija” unhindered operating on the territory of the entire province. In the August round of the dialogue, the Pristina delegation, headed by Edita Tahiri, unexpectedly tried to dispute the Brussels agreement since it requested access to the “Telekom” system. Their intention is, if they receive Belgrade’s approval, for Albanian companies, through base stations and “Telekom” relays in Kosovo, to be able to connect their cables with optical cables that transmit telephone, video and computers signals that go through “Telekom”. “I don’t doubt that there are those who are illegally trying to wiretap telephones of residents in this region, since we know that various security and para-security structures are operating here,” the Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric told TV Most in Zvecan about one month ago. In order for the authorities in the province to be able to wiretap Serbian citizens they need to connect to one of “Telekom’s” 25 base stations in Kosovo and Metohija. If the Pristina authorities have better electronic surveillance devices, it is sufficient for them to connect to one of the relays. If they would be permitted this, they could theoretically wiretap not only citizens, but also Serbian politicians in northern Kosovo, the Serbian state leadership, directors of domestic public companies…Former head of the Security-Information Agency (BIA) Andreja Savic claims that Serbia would have a serious security problem if it would allow something like this to Pristina. He adds that the Brussels dialogue has entered a very fragile phase and that the Belgrade delegation needs to have a fierce stand and not permit something like that. He claims that this request by Pristina is not random since all moves that the political leadership in Kosovo has been undertaking a long time ago are in agreement with external power centers that are sponsors of Kosovo’s independence. “Kosovo is a state created by the Americans and we can only assume, as we cannot conclude with certainty, that everything that is being done in Kosovo is done on behalf and for the account of US intelligence services and their related European services. I doubt that the Albanian negotiators came up with the idea to request access to the ‘Telekom’ system, because I don’t know what would be their interest to engage in electronic surveillance,” said Savic.

Stefanovic, Burhkard: Interior Ministry, OSCE cooperating well (Tanjug)

Serbian Interior Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic and the outgoing head of the OSCE Mission to Serbia, Peter Burkhard, on Wednesday highlighted the good cooperation between the Interior Ministry and the OSCE in police work in local communities and the fight against corruption. Burkhard expressed satisfaction with the opening of Chapter 24 in Serbia’s EU accession talks, wishing Stefanovic success in pursuing the activities set out in the action plan. Stefanovic and Burkhard discussed the concept of local community police and the citizens’ trust in the police, the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

REGIONAL PRESS

Sarajevo’s rhetoric as tragic as silence of the international community (Srna)

RS Prime Minister Zeljka Cvijanovic told Srna that war-mongering rhetoric coming from Sarajevo is as tragic as the silence of the International Community and the absence of condemnation of militant threats coming from Bosniak circles. “This is one more proof of the unbalanced approach of internationals, and their inability to take a realistic course in treating B&H. We, in RS, are not interested in conflicts, we are interested in the progress of RS and the protection of our own identity,” Cvijanovic told Srna when asked to comment on continuous provocations coming from the political Sarajevo in connection with a referendum on RS Day, including the threats of armed conflict in B&H in which, as they say, RS would disappear. Cvijanovic has stressed that the referendum is exactly one of the instruments for protection against assaults and provocations coming from Sarajevo. “Things are quite clear – the desire for a referendum will stop as soon as such provocations stop; if they continue – the referendums will go on,” said RS Prime Minister.

Izetbegovic plans to file new appeal with B&H CC to try to dispute name of RS (Narodne novine)

Narodne novine daily learns from sources close to SDA that B&H Presidency Chairman and SDA leader Bakir Izetbegovic is planning to dispute before the Constitutional Court the name Republika Srpska (RS) claiming that it only recognizes one nation and is discriminatory towards people who are not Serbs. Izetbegovic is also planning to show that the RS was constituted in 1992 by the Assembly of the Serb people in B&H without the Bosniaks and Croats. The portal’s source claims that Izetbegovic believes that the three foreign and two Bosniak judges (former ranking SDA officials) will vote to abolish the name RS which means that the Constitutional Court would, as in all cases to date, rule in favor of the Bosniaks.

Dodik: Even Putin cannot change our decision on referendum (Nezavisne novine)

President of Republika Srpska (RS) and leader of SNSD Milorad Dodik told reporters on Wednesday, ahead of his trip to Moscow, that even Russian President Vladimir Putin could not change the RS’ decision to hold the referendum on the Day of the RS. He added that he is traveling to Moscow for economic issues, the cooperation of the RS with Russia, and not because of the referendum. Dodik emphasized that there will be no postponement of the referendum and that all preparations have been done. He again called on the citizens of the RS to vote in 25 September. Dodik announced that one of the topics of his meeting with Putin will be the referendum in the RS. “So, the referendum in the RS is a reaction and not an action, the referendum in the RS is not secession, but the matter of the Day of the RS, the referendum is people’s expression,” said Dodik. Dodik also stated that the referendum will be mentioned after elections, because the RSNA will convene on October 11 to discuss the implementation of the Bosnia and Herzegovina CC’s decision, in line with the results of the referendum.

RSNA Collegium discusses B&H CC’s decisions, asks RS government to submit amendments to RS Law on Holidays in procedure (TV1)

Collegium of the Republika Srpska (RS) National Assembly (RSNA) held a session in Banja Luka on Wednesday and discussed B&H Constitutional Court (CC)’s decisions related to the RS Day issue. On this occasion, the RSNA Collegium established that the procedure of implementation of the CC’s decision on the RS Day is underway, while the RSNA also received the CC’s decision on temporary measure of suspension of activities on organizing the RS Day referendum. The RSNA Collegium asked the RS Government to submit the proposal of amendments to the RS Law on Holidays in parliamentary procedure. The proposal of amendments is expected to be submitted in procedure by the end of the year. However, the RSNA Collegium did not pass a decision on postponement of the referendum, scheduled for Sunday. Following the session, Speaker of the RSNA Nedeljko Cubrilovic addressed a press conference and explained that the RSNA Collegium asks the RS government to submit amendments into procedure for the purpose of implementing the CC’s decision related to the RS Law on Holidays. “The program of work of the RSNA includes this as one of the documents that should be completed in the fourth quarter,” Cubrilovic added. Deputy Speaker of the RSNA Nenad Stevandic told the press that the referendum decision will be advisory. “The CC should be happy, because this is the only procedure that has to do with respecting its decisions,” Stevandic underlined. According to Stevandic, the referendum is only part of the procedure of implementing the CC’s decision. On behalf of Coalition ‘Domovina’, Deputy Speaker of the RSNA Senad Bratic called for respecting the CC’s decision on suspension of the referendum. “Bosniaks in the area of this entity do not want to give legitimacy to this unconstitutional activity, which is directed against the authority of the CC of B&H. No one denies the right to a referendum, however, such referendum question has already been interpreted by B&H CC”, Bratic said.

Due to war threats in B&H, Croatia will ask from USA and EU protection of Croats in B&H (Jutarnji list)

The daily learns from sources close to Croatia’s political leadership that Croatia will react in the following days regarding the recent developments in B&H both towards the EU and the USA, as well as through the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) and will play the firm and active role. The daily goes on to say that even President of Croatia Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, who is attending the 71st session of the UN General Assembly, is closely following events in B&H, and that the priority of Croatia is to warn the international community about status of Croats in B&H. Croatian President’s Advisor Mate Granic stated for the daily that Croatia has legitimate right to fight for equality of Croats in B&H. Also, goes on the daily, situation in B&H will be discussed too by B&H Foreign Affairs Minister Igor Crnadak and his Croatian counterpart Miro Kovac. Granic commented for the daily that there are a few important processes taking place in B&H now. There is announcement for referendum in the RS, which was condemned by the IC, the PIC and Croatian President, he emphasized and added that among other processes is the attempt by Brussels to make BIH start negotiations on accession to the EU. “That is extremely encouraging move that Croatia supports,” Granic underlined. However, he added, there is also the issue of outvoting of Croats, and it is certain that status of Croats in B&H as well as B&H itself will be among priority interests of Croatian President and hopefully the new Croatian government. Now that HDZ leader Andrej Plenkovic is likely to take over the helm of the government, goes on the daily, it is believed that Croatian leadership will now have significantly better cooperation and clear stance towards B&H. In the end, the daily also mentions a statement by Speaker of B&H House of Representatives Mladen Bosic who commented Halilovic’s statement by saying that he does not see a reason why the entire region would be so disturbed by a statement of one fool.

HNS rejects possibility of backing HDZ-Bridge government (Hina)

Croatian People’s Party (HNS) president Ivan Vrdoljak on Wednesday dismissed the possibility of the HNS supporting a government formed by the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and Bridge parties, saying he expected them “to finish their negotiations as soon as possible and start realizing their promises.” Speaking to the press after an HNS Presidency session, Vrdoljak said the party was “extremely satisfied” with its results in a recent parliamentary election and that it expected to defeat the HDZ-Bridge coalition in next year’s local polls. He said the HNS expected of the HDZ and Bridge “to raise salaries, cut taxes, provide for pensioners, improve health care and everything they talked about during the campaign, and not to waste any more time on political bickering but to get to work.” Vrdoljak said the HNS was not talking about backing an HDZ-Bridge government but embarking on preparations for local elections. “The day after this election, we extended our congratulations and said Bridge and the HDZ should form the government since they won the voters’ trust.” He said the HNS “isn’t even thinking about participating in the government” and that it would be in the opposition when parliament would vote on a prime minister designate. He would not say if the HNS would run in the local polls independently or in a coalition.

Croatian president holds bilateral talks on margins of UN assembly (Hina)

President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic held several bilateral meetings on the fringes of the 71st United Nations General Assembly, among else with Australia’s Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Jawad Kadhim Al-Abadi, the President’s Office has reported. Grabar-Kitarovic and PM Turnbull discussed possibilities for bilateral cooperation, particularly in the field of shipbuilding, education and the IT sector. Turnbull showed great interest in the “Three Seas Initiative” and the talks turned to possibilities and potential cooperation in the context of connecting the countries of the Adriatic, Baltic and Black seas, the press release says. The talks with Iraqi premier reflected on potential mutual cooperation. “The President said that Croatia has a wealth of experience in construction and infrastructure as well as food production with halal certification while the Iraqi PM expressed interest in Croatia’s know-how and technology in mine clearing,” and great interest was shown in stronger cooperation in tourism. “During the meeting there was talk on events in the countries of Southeast Europe accentuating the refugee and migrant crisis. In the context of security, the two officials agreed that any radicalization was particularly dangerous” the press release notes. Grabar-Kitarovic on Tuesday conducted a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and discussed strengthening cooperation between the two countries. President Grabar-Kitarovic will participate at the 71st UN General Assembly on Wednesday and will deliver her address at the general debate on the topic of “The Sustainable Development Goals: A Universal Push to Transform Our World.”

Djukanovic: US President praised the progress Montenegro made on NATO path (CDM)

Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic and his wife were guests at the traditional reception organized by US President Barack Obama for delegation heads at the UN General Assembly session. On this occasion, Obama congratulated for Montenegro’s progress in Euro-Atlantic integration. Djukanovic thanked Obama and the USA for their strong support for Montenegro’s membership in NATO. As the Cabinet stated, during the US President’s reception, Djukanovic had a series of bilateral meetings, including those with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Argentina Mauricio Macri, counterparts from the region and other dignitaries.

Vujanovic and Dinosa: Cooperation strengthening is in mutual interest (CDM)

Cooperation between Montenegro and Kosovo is very meaningful in the field of intensifying bilateral relations, Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic and newly appointed Montenegrin Ambassador to Kosovo, Ferhat Dinosa, said. As the officials said, such cooperation is of mutual interest for the citizens of Montenegro and Kosovo. Vujanovic pointed out that the conditions are met for the two neighboring countries to exchange ambassadors, since the Montenegrin community in Kosovo has been recognized by the Law on the Protection and Promotion of the Rights of Communities and their Members, adopted in December 2011. The law was supported by all the relevant Montenegrin entities in Kosovo. “Based on this support, the strategy for the integration and promotion of the Montenegrin community in Kosovo has been adopted. Its development has been supported by the Government of Kosovo, which set up a working group for its implementation,” Vujanovic’s office stated. It was also pointed out that Kosovo was going through a specific period of parliamentary life, which significantly affected the dynamics of amending the Constitution. Thus Montenegrin community would be included in the most important legal act in Kosovo. Dinosa said he would be committed to cooperation, pointing out that he would work on affirmation of friendship and complete understanding in order to improve already good relations between Montenegro and Kosovo.

These parties and coalitions are running in the upcoming elections in Montenegro (RTCG)

As many as 17 parties and coalitions are running in the general elections scheduled for 16 October. The deadline for submitting candidates list expired at midnight. The State Election Commission should determine order of the lists at ballots.

The submitted lists are following (in alphabetical order):

Alternative Montenegro

Bosniak Democratic Union

Bosniak Party

The Democrats

The Democratic Party of Socialists

Democratic Front

Democratic Alliance of Albanians – a group of citizens

Croatian Civic Initiative

A Coalition with a Single Goal – Gzim Hajdinaga

Positive Montenegro

Social Democratic Party

The Social Democrats of Montenegro

Serb Party

The Party of Pensioners, People with Disabilities and Social Justice – Smajo Sabotic, PhD

The Party of Serbian Radicals

The Key coalition (SNP, Demos, URA)

Are these elections for forming Montenegrin government or a referendum on NATO? (CDM)

Montenegrin political parties campaign for parliamentary elections on 16 October can make outsiders think that the citizens of Montenegro are to decide on NATO membership and not on MPs and government. On the one hand, DPS is “pushing” the NATO story as one of its merits, which the Democratic Front is using in its promotion videos, presenting the alliance as the only Milo Djukanovic’s trump. Therefore, CDM asked Vladimir Goati, a reputable professor and an expert on local issues, whether NATO issue can be the decisive one in the elections. “Currently, the importance of NATO is extremely high, but that argument could be used in Serbia more successfully, because this hatred against the alliance is much weaker in Montenegro. I don’t think the NATO card can bring prevail in the elections,” Goati told CDM. He points out that both sides are presenting the elections as “to be or not to be” thing. “The opposition’s campaign, particularly DF’s campaign, is based ad hominem as criticizing Milo Djukanovic. I have not realized that the opposition parties have a common program – they go as usual in multiple columns. In these elections, DPS has not insisted on a national division, but it will be deepened because of the opposition, primarily DF. DPS plays program card and has a positive campaign, whereas DF, at least as far as I understand, has the campaign focused on PM Milo Djukanovic. I can say that he is offering a program, a better life and is not focused on private lives of his opponents, whereas the opposition’s campaign is primarily personal. However, I have not realized the opposition campaign is a program one – but there is still enough time for them to change it… we will see,” Goati said. In any case, he does not expect any spectacular changes after 16 October. “I personally do not think that there will be an electoral earthquake. More or less, the status quo as before the election will remain,” he concluded.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Welcome to EUgoslavia (Politico.eu, by Matthew Karnitschnig, 22 September 2016)

The new array of European Union subgroups is a sign of deeper malaise.

BERLIN — Metternich, the godfather of pan-European statecraft, once famously quipped that the Balkans started just beyond Vienna’s ramparts. In the emerging EU of 27, the Balkans are everywhere. The European Union could always be neatly divided into regional blocs that, for the most part, pursued a common agenda, whether the northern group around Germany or the southern “Club Med” countries led by France. That changed recently as the flurry of economic and political crises to befall the EU spawned an alphabet soup of subgroups, with like-minded capitals looking for strength in numbers. Now, Brexit is accelerating the trend as countries seek allies ahead of the coming debates over the EU’s future. This month, Athens hosted the inaugural gathering of the “EUMed” (Greece, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Cyprus and Malta), replete with a custom logo and family photo. The group’s aim is to build a bulwark against the Berlin-led alliance of penny pinchers they blame for the south’s chronic economic stagnation. Central Europe, meanwhile, has revived the long-dormant Visegrad group, banding together to resist Brussels’ attempts to force them to accept refugees. Austria, one of the countries most affected by the influx, has created an alliance of its own. That group, consisting of Germany, Greece and several candidate countries in the Balkans, is set to meet in Vienna this weekend. They’ve selected the perfect venue — Klemens von Metternich’s former chancellery. Finding consensus in an EU of nearly 30 states was never going to be easy. In stable times, the divisions are just easier to ignore. In this latest fracturing, however, the flaws in the EU’s institutional architecture have been magnified by a lack of credible leadership. Like a mutinous army, member countries simply ignore Brussels’ efforts to impose discipline in areas such as refugee policy. “It’s really a symptom of the deeper malaise in the EU,” said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. “There are very few areas where you have broad-based agreement anymore. That’s obviously dangerous for the European project.” The blocs themselves can be as fractious as the broader Union. While the Visegrad countries share a common loathing for Muslims, their views diverge when it comes to issues like Russia and regional security. Some groups, such as the much ballyhooed Weimar Triangle between France, Germany and Poland, disappear altogether as domestic political priorities and constellations change. There’s also a constant shifting of the alliances, depending on the issue at hand. Germany, Italy and Greece may sing from the same hymnal on refugee policy, but when it comes to economics, they don’t even share the same religion. If groups like Visegrad or the newly formed EUMed were to coordinate policy and support common initiatives across a range of economic, security and political areas, the impact on the EU could be profound. Yet they remain light years away from achieving such consensus.

Don’t mention the euro

While the groups that have emerged recently often profess high-minded political goals, their main impact is to stall action in key areas. Instead of fresh solutions, what emerges is often little more than a blocking minority and further stasis, as illustrated both by the refugee crisis and Europe’s tepid strategy to revive the economy. The real question is where will Europe’s increasing fracturing lead. Brexit has spurred countries to stake out positions ahead of what promises to become an important, perhaps even decisive debate over the future of the EU. “We’re all looking at London, but the bigger question is what the rest of Europe will do because they’re deciding the future,” said Jan Techau, director of the Richard C. Holbrooke Forum at the American Academy in Berlin. The danger is the growing factionalism will smother that debate before it starts. That problem was apparent at last weekend’s summit in Bratislava. It took Germany’s Angela Merkel weeks of shuttle diplomacy to build consensus around a mostly humdrum list of initiatives, such as dispatching more border guards to Bulgaria. What was supposed be a nice photo-op to showcase Europe’s continued unity, despite Brexit, backfired in the end when Italian leader Matteo Renzi broke ranks and criticized the outcome. What Europe must confront in the coming months is vastly more complicated than questions of refugee quotas and border controls. Though little discussed these days, the elephant in the room remains the euro. Thanks to the European Central Bank, the euro crisis has gone into remission. But the underlying strains, the structural flaws in the eurozone’s architecture that led to the crisis, remain. The dislocution in Italy’s banking sector is just the latest reminder of the dangers that are lurking. The only real way to fix the problem once and for all would be for members to relinquish more sovereignty, for example by accepting tougher fiscal oversight in return for common debt issuance. A Balkanized Europe won’t succeed in meeting such a challenge. “The euro is the big thing that could break everything up,” Techau said.

Serb Referendum Vote Prompts Fears of Strife in Bosnia(Newsweek/Reuters, 22 September 2016)

Bosnia’s autonomous Serb entity is set to defy its highest court with a referendum on a national holiday on Sunday that may stoke separatist sentiment lingering since the 1990s war. The referendum, on whether to mark Jan. 9 as “Statehood Day” in the Serb Republic part of Bosnia, will be the country’s first since a 1992 plebiscite on secession from then-Yugoslavia that ignited three years of ethnic war in which 100,000 were killed. The Sarajevo-based Constitutional Court ruled on Saturday that this “Statehood Day” was illegal since it coincides with a Serbian Orthodox Christian holiday and so discriminated against Muslim Bosniaks and Catholic Croats living in the Serb Republic. The court also banned the planned referendum. January 9 was the day in 1992 when Bosnian Serb legislators declared the creation of an independent Serb Republic after Bosniaks and Croats voted for independence from Serbian-dominated federal Yugoslavia. Many believe that by defying the court ruling, Milorad Dodik, the current Serb Republic’s nationalist president, aims to highlight the weakness of Bosnia’s central authorities in Sarajevo and set the stage for a vote on secession. The court’s rulings are formally binding, but more than 90 of them have been ignored by the autonomous regions that were set up by negotiators to hold Bosnia together after the war. The United States, which brokered the 1995 Dayton peace deal, and Aleksandar Vucic, prime minister of neighboring Serbia, have all warned of the risk of renewed instability in the economically deprived Balkan region. The European Union also opposes the Serb referendum. But President Vladimir Putin of Russia, a traditional ally of the Bosnian Serbs, has endorsed the referendum, and invited Dodik to Moscow for consultations on Thursday.

Ethnic war in 1990s

The Bosnian Serbs’ rejection of an independent, multi-ethnic Bosnia in 1992 triggered an avalanche of bloodshed in which Serbs and Croats carved eth cally pure statelets out of Bosnia with the backing of kin in neighboring Serbia and Croatia. It was Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II. Zeljko Kovac, an unemployed war veteran from the largest Bosnian Serb city, Banja Luka, said he would vote for Statehood Day “because I fought for the Serb Republic”. “We will not take orders from Muslims on what we are going to celebrate,” Kovac told Reuters, echoing a widespread belief among Serbs that the Sarajevo court is biased against them. The U.S. Embassy in Sarajevo said that pursuing the referendum in defiance of the high court posed a “threat to the rule of law and thus a threat to the stability, security and prosperity” of Bosnia. “The Dayton Peace Agreement is an international peace treaty that cannot be challenged without consequences. We will not accept attempts to obstruct implementation of the DPA or weaken (Bosnian) institutions,” the embassy said in a statement. The ambassadors to the international peace implementation body for Bosnia urged the Serb Republic to cancel the referendum, but fell short of specifying what the consequences would be. Russia abstained from a joint statement. The European Union believes strengthening Bosnia’s complex, ethnically-balanced federation is essential for peace in a region still afflicted by ethnic tensions, and a precondition for its eventual membership of the EU. EU foreign ministers this week accepted Bosnia’s membership application, raising hopes in Sarajevo of eventual admission to the bloc.

The Ebbing of Democracy in the Western Balkans (Carnegie group, by Judy Dempsey, 22 September 2016)

A meeting of international donors, foundations, and multilateral funders opened in the Serbian capital Belgrade on September 21 amid growing concern from young grassroots and philanthropic organizations that the Western Balkans are drifting backward. And in a dangerous way. It is a backwardness characterized by growing corruption, increasing intimidation of the media, and political elites across the region who pay lip service to reform. With the EU now focused on ensuring security, controlling its external borders, and stemming the flow of migrants reaching Europe, the union is paying little attention to the negative trends taking place in its immediate backyard. The emerging message from the Balkan Donors Forum, spearheaded by the European Fund for the Balkans and the Open Society Foundations, was that donors and NGOs need to rethink their role in this part of Europe.* The decision by Britain in June 2016 to quit the EU has dealt a blow to reformers in the Western Balkan countries of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. For reformers and those who support the region joining the EU, Brexit will mean a weaker Europe. Brexit also robs the EU of a strong advocate of further enlargement. With this shift by the EU away from integration and enlargement toward security issues, there was a sense among the participants attending the Belgrade conference that as long as the Western Balkans are stable, that’s enough for EU governments—even if it means neglecting to strengthen the region’s highly fragile democratic institutions. This is a big mistake. The region is far from stable, as demonstrations against corruption, abuses of power, and clientelism that have taken place in major cities in recent months confirm. Yet the protests have not led to changes that would make the elites more accountable. On the contrary. In an internal report presented at the conference to donors and other stakeholders, former Macedonian diplomat Nikola Dimitrov argued that the EU has opted for short-term measures instead of a long-term strategy that would complete the political and economic transformation of the region. “Finishing the job in the Western Balkans has become a side-show at best,” he wrote. “With the current reactive mood of Europe, if there is any concern left for the region in Brussels, it is about its short-term stability . . . as opposed to democratic reforms.” This emphasis on short-term stability suits most of the leaders in the Western Balkans. Calling them the “Balkan Strongmen”—a reference to the region’s presidents in the 1990s, when the former Yugoslavia, engulfed in civil war, was led by Slobodan Milošević in Serbia, Franjo Tuđman in Croatia, and Radovan Karadžić in Republika Srpska, part of Bosnia and Herzegovina—Dimitrov wrote that today’s leaders also suit the EU. “The perceived need for strong leaders dealing with the situation has enhanced the tendency of horse-trading of fundamental European values for geopolitical interests and stability.” More worryingly, “the increasingly authoritarian Balkan strongmen still talk pro-EU talks but they more and more emulate the Russian or Turkish model,” Dimitrov added. The EU is not alone in compromising its values in the Western Balkans in ways that perpetuate the status quo. Young activists at the Belgrade conference complained that the plethora of international donors need to understand how the changes taking place in the EU are having a negative impact on the entire democratization process in the Western Balkans. “There’s too much kowtowing to the status quo by donors and nongovernmental organizations,” said Damir Arsenijević, an activist and professor in critical theory and literature at the University of Tuzla in Bosnia and Herzegovina. His view, shared by others at the conference, was that precisely because the EU was taking its eye off democratization in the Western Balkans, focusing instead on stability and security, NGOs should be far more assertive in speaking out against corruption and the erosion of accountability. Failing that, the Balkan strongmen can continue to act with impunity, as they have done particularly in Macedonia. The European Commission, the EU’s executive, knows exactly what is happening in the Western Balkans. Its regular enlargement strategy and country reports pull no punches about the region’s deteriorating rule of law, nepotism, and crackdown on the media. But Brussels is a long way from the situation on the ground in this part of Europe. That is where NGOs should be the eyes and ears of what’s going on and should speak out. However, the Western Balkan strongmen are resorting to tactics used by Vladimir Putin, the Russian president. In these leaders’ view, NGOs are foreign agents and traitors that need to be reined in. Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić, so much liked by Brussels because of his cooperative and conciliatory approach toward resolving the relationship between Serbia and its former province Kosovo, is no exception to this trend. “Serbia is now among the countries globally to have suffered the largest declines regarding freedom of the press in 2015,” wrote Dimitrov. And as for Vučić using pro-EU rhetoric with his EU interlocutors, “so much of it is lip service. There is so little transparency. The pro-EU talk is not matched by reforms at home,” said Biljana Dakić Đorđević, executive director of Trag, a philanthropic organization based in Serbia. The seeds of change—and discontent—are being sown.