LOCAL PRESS

Vucic: Not a catastrophe if further chapters are not opened (RTS)

In an interview to Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS), Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said that he thought that further chapters would be opened. According to him, Serbia is ready to open chapters on public procurements, education, and many other chapters. When it comes to telecommunications, Vucic says that the Kosovo Albanians have their dialing code that they had taken from Monaco, but that Serbia still has the Telekom network in the north of the province. He recalls that Serbia had lost its military presence in Kosovo and Metohija in 1999, that Kosovo unilaterally declared independence in 2008, and that we were now moving within these frameworks. “The most important thing for us is what the Serbs will have. We requested that they are not introduced a new dialing code, and that before further privatizations occur in telecommunications, that we have the permission for our mobile network in the next three years. We have transmitters in the north, but they are not giving us for central Kosovo,” explained Vucic. When it comes to Trepca and Gazivode, Vucic stresses that this is a property issue and that they didn’t have negotiations on this. “These issues are not easy, and if there is understanding in the EU, we can achieve good results,” Vucic is convinced. Talking about the murder of the Bytyqi brothers, Vucic says: “I would give anything to investigate this crime, because I will never hide killers and criminals, because this is impermissible, a catastrophe, and tells all the worst about a state,” and pointed out that the crime against the Bytyqi brothers was horrible, that they were murdered without guilt and that they had not committed any crime against the Serbs. Vucic says that it is a fact that the former Gendarmerie commander Goran Radosavljevic Guri was a great friend of NATO and the US after the murder and that he was in NATO headquarters in Brussels in 2001, together with the US ambassador, and from there he went to the NATO base in Stuttgart to see a NATO commander. “And now, because he is a member of Vucic’s party…Shame on you, what do you think, that I have no shame, that I will tolerate for someone to kick me in the head, that I can’t respond with facts? It is more important for me what do people in Serbia think than one day of life, not to mention one day in power,” said Vucic. “America’s friend and the murderer of the American people would never receive an invitation to NATO,” said Vucic, adding that nobody has done anything on this issue for 13 years, and that now Vucic is guilty.

Dacic: Kosovo’s attempt at admission to Interpol fails (Beta)

At the session of the Interpol General Assembly which is just being held in Indonesia, another attempt of Kosovo’s for admission into membership was prevented, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said on Monday. “Even though Kosovo had prepared for months and had sent notes to all the member countries, the General Assembly refused all the petitions for including into the agenda the additional items on admission to membership”, Dacic stated in a written statement.

In April 2005, Kosovo submitted a request for membership, but Interpol’s Executive Committee still hasn’t accepted this proposal, states the Serbian Foreign Ministry. “This has [following the refusal of Kosovo’s admittance to UNESCO] once again confirmed that unilateral moves by Kosovo concerning membership in international organizations are not met by the support they once had, which is also a result of a major activity of the Serbian government on the unmasking of such a policy,” Dacic announced.

Center for aid to asylum seekers: 7,000-10,000 migrants in Serbia (Beta)

There are between 7,000 and 10,000 migrants currently in Serbia, out of whom about 4,600 are residing in asylum centers, while the rest are “drifting”, since there is no room in the accommodation centers for them, the director of the Asylum Protection Center, Rados Djurovic said on Monday. At a press conference on the migrants held in Belgrade, Djurovic said that out of 8,956 people who expressed intent at receiving asylum in Serbia, only 540 had actually filled a petition. “What is happening with all the other people”, he asked and added that since the beginning of the year to 1 October, 204 identity cards had been issued, and only 24 approved asylums, which showed that the system was not functioning and that it was slow. According to data from the field, there are at least 1,000 migrants on the streets of Belgrade, and 800 to 1,000 in north Serbia.

Commissariat rejects Djurovic’s accusations as tendentious (RTS)

The Commissariat for Refugees and Migrations responded to Djurovic’s allegations and called them tendentious an ill-intentioned. “The government bodies are working on the resolution of the problem of migrants in parks in downtown Belgrade. However, it seems to suit some organizations to create a para-system, which does not benefit the migrants, and to cause a panic,” stated the Commissariat in its announcement. Concerning the standards of accommodation in the asylum centers, the Commissariat underlines that, upon the opening of the centers the state adheres to the obligatory standards for a humane accommodation of migrants. “We are all the more surprised that someone, such as Djurovic, who is a witness to all our efforts to improve the capacities of the asylum centers, does not recognize this. And not only does he not recognize [our efforts], but rather presents unsubstantiated claims which will bring nothing good, or constructive, to either the migrants or the citizens of Serbia”, states the announcement.

EC to take note of Serbia’s progress, recommend further steps (Tanjug)

The European Commission’s Serbia Progress Report for the past year, to be presented in Brussels on Wednesday, will be mostly positive, say Tanjug’s sources close to the European Commission. The European Commission is expected to praise Serbia’s economic governance, public administration reform and constructive role in regional cooperation, while urging Belgrade to remain committed to the dialogue with Pristina and pointing to ICTY Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz’s latest report criticizing Serbia’s failure to extradite three Serbian Radical Party officials to the tribunal and appoint a war crimes prosecutor following a long period of vacancy. The report is also expected to particularly focus on more efficient judicial reform, reduction of room for political influence on judges and prosecutors and on the fight against corruption and organized crime.

REGIONAL PRESS

HR Inzko says he was tempted to use his powers due to violation of B&H’s constitutional organization (BN TV)

High Representative Valentin Inzko will present the 50th report on work of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) before the UN Security Council (UN SC) on Tuesday. The report refers to the period from April 16 to October 21 this year. Inzko stressed that a key challenge in this period was the issue of the referendum in the RS, which was organized despite the decision of the Constitutional Court (CC) of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). “Holding of the referendum shows that the Republika Srpska (RS) authorities do not take into account the decisions passed at the state level when they do not suit them. I am concerned over how this will affect the peace and stability, particularly if the RS authorities do not give up on the idea of a referendum on secession from B&H in 2018, which the ruling party in the RS has been threatening with”, Inzko stated in the report. He added that due to seriousness of the situation he submitted a special report on the referendum and decisions that might jeopardize implementation of the law. Hayat – Inzko also said that he was very tempted to use his powers due to violation of B&H’s constitutional organization, but still he did not use them. The report also says that B&H’s territorial integrity was mostly jeopardized by statements of RS President Milorad Dodik and the main challenge was the issue of the referendum in the RS. The HR’s report stresses that unless the course of the RS authorities is stopped, there is a danger of B&H’s breakdown and a legal anarchy. “The RS excluded itself from B&H judicial system and thus jeopardized implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA), which represents a threat to the international security”, reads the report.

RS officials reject HR’s report as biased and irrelevant (Glas Srpske)

Commenting on Inzko’s report, Speaker of the RSNA, Nedeljko Cubrilovic, said that Inzko is looking at things in B&H from only one people’s perspective, and that the is not objective when it comes to Serbs and the RS, to say the least. “That is manifested not only in annual reports he has been sending to the UN, but in his other stances as well. Whoever from RS does anything, HR finds the way to anathematize it or not recognize it”, Cubrilovic said. He reminded that referendum is democratic, constitutional and legal right of the RS, adding that the RS has found the solution for the Day of the RS and that no one should be discussing the issue of January 9 anymore. Vice-President of SNSD, Nebojsa Radmanovic, said that HR’s reports make no sense anymore, because they always contain the same assessment aimed mostly against the RS and its institutions. “In fact, that only proves how poorly the HR is doing his job”, Radmanovic said, adding that HR literally copies parts of his reports every six months, and changes only statements from certain media outlets and dates. Furthermore, Radmanovic said that Inzko’s reports are actually causing damage to B&H, assessing them as “completely irrelevant”. “That is why it is important that the RS is sending its own report, which portrays realistic picture of situation in BiH”, Radmanovic concluded. Commenting on speculations that Inzko actually advocates sanctions against certain RS officials, Radmanovic said that something like that cannot be adopted in the UN SC. “People who understand situation in B&H and can prevent adoption of decisions detrimental to B&H are sitting in the UN SC”, Radmanovic said, adding that sanctions against RS officials would be “detrimental to all”. “Luck will start residing here the very moment international community becomes well-intentioned, and decides to help us in this difficult situation, instead of making things more difficult, like Inzko is doing with his reports. So, gentlemen from the OHR, good bye and you should have left a long time ago, and since you have not, leave immediately after this report”, Radmanovic concluded. SDS leader Vukota Govedarica said that Inzko’s report will have no consequences to the RS. “RS has the right to organize referendum. We are used to what Inzko is doing”, Govedarica said. DNS leader Marko Pavic said that RS’ actions have in no way endangered the Dayton Peace Agreement. “We in the RS are well aware that we are a part of B&H, and a constituent one as well, but others also have to be aware of that. Only then things will be completely different”, Pavic said. President of United Srpska and Deputy Speaker of the RSNA, Nenad Stevandic, assessed as “unbelievable” the fact that Inzko is concerned because of “democratic expression of people’s will in referendum”, while in the same time he is not concerned because of numerous reports according to which terrorists in European countries are linked with B&H. Inset ‘OHR’ – Inzko’s report also reads that the OHR’s budget has been reduced by almost 50 percent, and that conditions for closure of the Office of the High Representative have not been met yet.

Ljubic: Instead to Europe, you take country to Middle East through Islamization (Dnevni avaz)

President of the Main Board of the Croat People’s Assembly (HNS) Bozo Ljubic sent an open letter on Monday to Chairman of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Presidency and leader of SDA Bakir Izetbegovic. He sent the letter as a reaction to Izetbegovic’s recent interview, in which he commented status of Croats and Croat issue in B&H. According to Ljubic, Izetbegovic stated a series of superficial, wrong and malicious assessments regarding Croats and Croat issue in B&H. Therefore, he stressed, the HNS Main Board is obliged to point at certain parts of this interview. Ljubic reminded Izetbegovic that ever since signing of the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) “Croats have been exposed to continuous and systematic institutional and political violence on one side and to threats, physical violence and murders on the other side”. Commenting Izetbegovic’s words about representatives of Croatia not having accurate analysis and information, that they are blindly following ad support whatever the HNS leadership ask them to, Ljubic said: “We are afraid, Mr. Izetbegovic, it is exactly you who blindly, blinded by great-Bosniak illusions about turning the country of B&H into a country under domination of majority people and by systematic Islamization of society regardless of being in accordance with Turkish, Saudi or Iranian version of Islam, do not see that interest of citizens and peoples of B&H is Europe and not Middle of Mid-Asian East”.

Plenkovic, Covic say selective approach unacceptable (Hina)

Croatian Prime Minister and Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) chief Andrej Plenkovic and Croat members of the B&H collective presidency and HDZ B&H leader Dragan Covic said on Monday that a selective approach to suspects in certain crimes was unacceptable. “Croatia and the HDZ strongly believe it is necessary to shed light on each crime and, if responsibility is established, institutions of the law-based state must take action. However (…) a selective approach to suspects for certain crimes is unacceptable for us,” Plenkovic said. He stressed that the session of the HDZ Presidency and the National Council, which was also attended by Covic, focused on political, legal and security consequences of the arrests of ten former Croat HVO forces members, The arrests took place only several days after otherwise “a very quality, friendly and constructive visit which I paid to Sarajevo, Kiseljak and Mostar 10 days ago.” He reiterated that his visit to B&H was aimed at supporting B&H’s European path and strengthening the equal position of the Croat people in B&H. Plenkovic expressed satisfaction with the fact that Covic explained to members of the HDZ Presidency and the National Council the situation in B&H, notably in Orasje, following the arrests of the former HVO officers. He reiterated his full legal and consular support to the arrestees as well financial, if necessary. Plenkovic underscored he would continue to closely cooperate with Covic and his friends in B&H in an effort to resolve the current situation and agree on cooperation in the future. “Nobody can stop our European path. The leaders of that European path are representatives of the Croat people in B&H,” Covic said. In his opinion, the arrest of the 10 former HVO members, which took place on All Saints’ Day, the model and the timing were aimed at sending a clear message to PM Plenkovic who two days earlier paid a very successful visit to B&H, pledging his support to B&H’s European path. Commenting on the Orasje arrests, Covic said he was confident that those who wanted to take a selective approach to processing war events from 1991 and 1992 would not be successful.

New parliament constituted: MPs’ seats confirmed, but Speaker of Parliament has not been elected (CDM)

Inaugural session of the new Parliament of Montenegro has been held in Cetinje. However, MPs have not voted on the Speaker and the Deputy Speakers of Parliament, so it could not be clear who will be the ruling majority and form the new government. The session was attended by MPs for the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the Social Democrats (SD), the Bosniak Party (BS), the Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) and Forca. On the other hand, members of the Key coalition, the Democrats, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Democratic Front (DF), as announced, did not come to Cetinje because they believe that the elections were not fair and democratic. Presenting the report of the State Election Commission (SEC) on the results of the parliamentary elections which were held on 16 October, the commission president Budimir Saranovic said that he was glad that the observation mission positively assessed the elections. He said that 528,817 citizens had the voting right in Montenegro, and that 388,220 voters exercised that right on 16 October. According to the SEC, there were 140,597 unused and 5,513 invalid ballots. “DPS won 36 seats, DF 18, the Key coalition 9, the Democrats 8, SDP four, SD and BS won two seats each and the Albanians Resolute coalition and HGI one MP each”, Saranovic said.

Djukanovic: All in collusion with the political factor (RTCG)

Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said that, after the special state prosecutor statement, there was no doubt that the events of October 16 were done in collusion with the political factor from Montenegro. “I listened to the prosecutor and it turned out to be true what we suspected.  Now, we have to complete the evidence and create conditions to raise the indictment. All of this happened because of politics, and this is all done in collusion with the political factor in Montenegro. I hope that this process will be finished and that we will get in the way of those who, on the account of their political, media and non-governmental action, want to topple the state,” Djukanovic said after the constitutive session of the Assembly in Cetinje, reports the CDM. He states that the talks with the coalition partners are promising and hopes to form an alliance with the natural partners. “There are more and less pleasant topics in the talks. Everybody wants a bigger piece of the cake, and it’s not uncommon,” Djukanovic said.

DF: We deny being connected with attempted terrorist attack, Katnic entertains the public (CDM)

Democratic Front (DF) has nothing to do with the attempted terrorist attack on 16 October in Montenegro – either as alliance or individually, Predrag Bulatovic said at the press conference a day after the Chief Special Prosecutor Milivoje Katnic said that the organizers of the attempted attack were two Russians suspected of cooperating with one Montenegrin politician.  “No. We do not recognize ourselves in the allegations and we have nothing to do with that fabricated case”, Bulatovic said. DF leader Andrija Mandic said that Katnic’s allegations were shameful. “The criminal gang of Milo Djukanovic, Stanko Subotic and Mohammed Dahlan included Milivoje Katnic into their circles. Katnic unreservedly made the Democratic Front a target at the press conference held on Sunday. These are phrases which amuse public in Montenegro. We are not afraid because there are 80,000 citizens of Montenegro are behind us. Prosecution has several informants and some equipment that might be purchased at retail stores. This is a shame and a disgrace”, Mandic said at a press conference in Podgorica. Therefore Mandic warned Djukanovic “not to go that way”. “Let them not make moves that all of us can predict in advance. Montenegro is in a difficult and dramatic historical moment. Anyone who thinks that can take advantage of the fact to the detriment of DF is badly mistaken”, said Mandic. He says he is not afraid of any indictment. “We see no problem in the indictment in which the prosecutor’s office is one of two equal parties. We are ready to exchange arguments that prove that misery and meanness”, he said.

“Colorful Revolutionaries” clearly a SDSM output, Bozinovski says (Telegraf.mk)

The candidate lists prove that Zoran Zaev is at peace with losing at elections as he is only interested in attaining the loyalty of certain people so that he can avoid a party overthrow. The SDSM leader is only interested in remaining party chief after elections, political analyst Valdimir Bozinovski notes. According to him, Zaev has given up on people who can attain a lot of votes, and is relying on people largely unknown to the public. “More specifically, I am referring to Marjanco Nikolov and Goran Sugarevski, who are well respected in the areas from where they come from. On the other hand, in the 2nd electoral district, candidates with radical Islamist ideas have been chosen. The move shows that SDSM wants to attract new voters, but the party is more likely to lose its traditional voters, thus causing more damage,” Bozinovski told Telegraf.mk. According to Bozinovski Zaev has made a few mistakes, nominating Radmila Sekerinska in the 5th electoral district being one of them. Bozinovski claims that she cannot bring in votes in that particular district, much like Ljupco Nikolovski can’t in the 3rd. Bozinovski considers that SDSM’s standing in the 3rd electoral district is poorly planned and that a different choice should have been made. Furthermore, Bozinovski pointed out that SDSM cannot attain a lot of votes in the 6th electoral district, where instead of Stojko Paunov, Petre Silegov is list carrier. Bozinovski considers that SDSM electing “Colorful Revolution” list candidates only proves that the colorful revolutionaries are a classic SDSM product. “Even though it was primarily a civil movement, SDSM immediately ‘hijacked’ it. That explains the continuation of protests and demands even after the retraction of President Ivanov’s abolition decision. Those activities clearly showcased that the Colorful Revolution is a SDSM product,” Bozinovski assessed.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Albania, Kosovo Keep ISIS Suspects Behind Bars (BIRN, by Fatjona Mejdini, 8 November 2016)

After a combined police anti-terror sweep in Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia, courts in Kosovo and Albania have ordered a dozen suspected members of a pro-ISIS group to be kept in detention.

The Court of Serious Crimes in Tirana on Monday decided to keep in jail four Albanians suspected of terrorism, who have refused to be represented by lawyers. It came after Albanian police on Saturday announced the results of a regional anti-terrorist police operation conducted in Albania, Kosovo and Macedonia, and said investigations are still continuing. On November 4, Albanian police nabbed four Albanians arrested from 30 to 46, two in the northern city of Shkodra on the border with Montenegro and the two others in the northeastern one of Peshkopi, on the border with Macedonia. Police announced that the four collaborated with each other and other citizens outside Albania and propagandized hate and the recruitment of fighters to join ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Police said the four citizens supported ISIS with logistics and funding and had all travelled in the conflict areas of the Middle East. However, the mother of one of the arrested in Shkodra, Jetmira Faslija, said on TV that her son had nothing to do with ISIS as far as she knew. “He has never spoken in our house about ISIS and was arrested while he was sleeping,” she said. On the same day, seven others were arrested in Kosovo in Mitrovica, Ferizaj and Prishtina, also suspected of engaging in terrorist activities. Two new suspects as part of the same operation were arrested in Kacanik and Mitrovica in Kosovo on Monday. Kosovo investigators said the arrested men supported ISIS’s terrorist activities and had planned attacks first in Kosovo and other countries of the region. The Kosovo Prosecution said that the suspects acted on the orders of Lavdrim Muhaxheri, the former leader of Albanian ISIS fighters. On Sunday, the Basic Court of Pristina decided to keep the seven suspects accused of terror in custody. Their defending attornies objected to the decision. The prosecution had no proof support of the allegations, a lawyer for one of the suspects said. “The allegations … stain the image of Kosovo as a state,” he said. In Albania, nine people are now in prison having been found guilty of recruiting some 70 Albanians to fight in the conflict in Syria. They are serving 126 years in jail in total. Around 70 people have been indicted for terrorism within the last three years, but not official data has been published concerning their final verdicts.

Austria and Balkan states prepare for collapse of EU-Turkey deal (Reuters, 7 November 2016)

FRAUENKIRCHEN, Austria – Austria said on Monday it will meet with its Balkan neighbours to discuss what action they might take if a deal with Turkey aimed at restricting the flow of illegal migrants into the European Union collapses. Turkey has threatened to walk away from the deal agreed in March if Turks are not granted visa-free travel to the bloc, while a crackdown by President Tayyip Erdogan since a failed coup attempt in July has discomfited European leaders.

“Very significant cracks are apparent in this deal between Europe and Turkey and we simply have to prepare for what will happen if this deal no longer holds,” Austrian Defence Minister Hans Peter Doskozil told a news conference after a meeting of his counterparts and other defence officials from the region. Austria, Macedonia, Serbia, and other countries coordinated the imposition in February of border restrictions that largely shut down what was then the main migrant route into Europe, causing a logjam in Greece before the deal with Turkey. After hundreds of thousands of migrants crossed their territories in a wave of arrivals that began last year, Austria and its allies fear a collapse of the deal with Turkey will lead to another surge, playing into the hands of populist parties. Turkey agreed in March to stop illegal migrants from crossing into Greece in exchange for financial aid for those in its care, the promise of visa-free travel for its citizens to much of the EU, and accelerated EU membership talks. But there has been deadlock over the plan to grant Turks visa-free access to Europe, with Brussels first wanting Turkey to change its anti-terrorism laws, which it deems too broad. Ankara’s possible reintroduction of the death penalty, which Erdogan has said he would sign if parliament approves it, could further jeopardise the agreement. European countries have also criticised Turkey’s detention last week of leaders of the main pro-Kurdish opposition party. “It is the unanimous opinion of all those present that all means, all available forces must be combined, that we must prepare ourselves for what will actually happen the next day if this deal between Turkey and the European Union collapses,” Doskozil said, without specifying what measures would be needed. The meeting of defence officials from 10 countries in central, eastern and southeastern Europe included Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia, all of which lie between Greece and Austria, the main migrant conduit into Germany. Doskozil said he would seek to arrange a meeting of defence and interior ministers from the same countries in the coming weeks. He said it might be expanded to include Romania and Bulgaria but not Greece, which recalled its ambassador to Austria when it was similarly snubbed in February.

(Reporting by Francois Murphy; Editing by Catherine Evans)

NATO Wages Anti-Russia ‘Info War’ as It Fails to Protect Europe From Terror (Sputnik, 8 November 2016)

Following threats by NATO to deploy hundreds of thousands of troops to Europe, Dragana Trifkovic, director of Serbia’s Center for Geostrategic Studies, told Sputnik that the alliance is putting the security of the continent at risk.

On Monday NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that the alliance is placing hundreds of thousands of troops on higher alert amid growing tensions with Russia. “We have seen Russia being much more active in many different ways… We have also seen Russia using propaganda in Europe among NATO allies and that is exactly the reason why NATO is responding. We are responding with the biggest reinforcement of our collective defense since the end of the Cold War,” Stoltenberg said in an interview with The Times, published on Monday. Dragana Trifkovic, director of Serbia’s Center for Geostrategic Studies, told Sputnik that Stoltenberg’s announcement is NATO’s latest attempt to justify its military build-up in Europe, and clearly contradicts NATO’s claim to have “strived to build a partnership with Russia” since the end of the Cold War. “At NATO they say one thing one day, and the next day another. Unfortunately, you can’t trust the alliance at all. You could say that the decision to strengthen (the NATO force) in Eastern Europe because of the ‘danger’ from Russia was already taken at the Warsaw summit in July,” Trifkovic said. NATO held its 27th NATO summit on July 8-9 in Warsaw, where the alliance’s foreign ministers agreed to strengthen its military presence in Eastern Europe on a rotational basis with four battalions in Poland and in the Baltic nations. “It seems to me that above all, this is connected to the conflict the US has with Russia through NATO, where the Americans have a lot of influence. You shouldn’t believe them, when in the alliance they say that NATO is trying to improve its relationship with Russia, because the alliance behaves aggressively toward Russia,” Trifkovic said. The analyst added that contrary to NATO’s accusation that Russia is “using propaganda in Europe,” in fact NATO members are intent on portraying Russia as an enemy in order to justify the organization’s continuing existence and expansion. “I live in Serbia and I can say that an information war is being waged here via the Western media – apparently Russia presents some kind of threat to Europe. There is constantly anti-Russian propaganda, they say that Russia is apparently an aggressive country, but that’s not true actually. It’s enough to see that there are NATO and US bases in Europe, there aren’t any Russian bases. In fact, they have surrounded Russia from all sides” Trifkovic said. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has concerned itself to a large extent with disastrous Middle Eastern interventions which enabled the rise of Daesh and other militant Islamist groups. However, the efforts of Russia, Iran and other regional players to defeat terrorism have led the alliance to again seek confrontation with Russia. In doing so, NATO hopes to district attention from its failure to prevent terrorism, Trifkovic said. “When the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist, the question arose – what kind of role does NATO have after that? They don’t solve the problem of terrorism, they have a duty to defend NATO member states but there have been terror acts in France and Germany. So, NATO is not protecting the countries of the alliance.” Rather than looking to NATO for protection, European states should seek to co-operate with Russia in the effort to prevent terrorism, Trifkovic said. “We see, for example, that in the Middle East, when the US was battling with terrorists there, there were no results. But Russia has real success and is in fact resolving problems with the aim of protecting the US and NATO.” Russia’s anti-terrorism policy includes the expansion of counterterrorism co-operation with European countries including Belarus and Serbia, which began tripartite military drills in Serbia last week. Over 700 troops from the three countries are taking part in the drills, which include tactical and firearms tasks to improve operational capabilities in multinational counterterrorism operations. NATO continues to insist that Serbia, like neighboring Montenegro, will one day join the alliance in spite of popular opposition. On Monday former NATO Secretary-General Anders Folg Rasmussen told the US government’s Radio Free Liberty that Serbia should follow Montenegro into what he called “Euro-Atlantic institutions.” “At the end of the day, Serbia knows very well that its future lies inside Euro-Atlantic institutions, firstly in the EU and likewise I think in the long-term in NATO membership,” Rasmussen said. However, earlier this year Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic said that Serbia remains steadfast in its rejection of the alliance, and declared that “we aren’t going into NATO.” “Russia knows that Serbian citizens do not want their country to join the alliance,” he told Sputnik.

Great Power Competition in the Balkans Heating Up (Geopolitical Monitor, by Jasmin Ademovic, 7 November 2016)

Hillary Clinton will need to dedicate more time to Bosnia and the Balkans than any president since Bill Clinton. While the prospect of renewed conflict in Bosnia remains relatively low in the short term, the former Yugoslavia republic has become another proxy battle between the West and Russia. Under a Clinton administration, this is likely to intensify, made more complicated by overlapping British, German, and Turkish interests in the Balkans and in relation to Russia.

While Yugoslavia disintegrated between 1990 and 1995, engulfed in two bloody wars in Croatia and Bosnia, Russia was experiencing its own difficulties with the break-up of the USSR and subsequent economic collapse. Russia under Boris Yeltsin largely avoided engaging in Yugoslavia, instead deferring to US and European objectives and leadership.

Putin has done the opposite in recent years, awakening Russian and Serbian dreams of a pan-Slavic link between Russia and its Orthodox Christian cousins in the Balkans. Russian relations with Serbia have generally been limited to political and diplomatic support such as the July 2015 veto of a UN Security Council Resolution that would have classified the July 1995 Srebrenica genocide as genocide and condemned genocide denials. Russia, however, stops short of major investments or extensive military cooperation with Belgrade. Somewhat akin to the Russian-Ukrainian relationship, the pro-West factions within Belgrade are pursuing membership in the European Union as well as possible NATO membership. While Putin might well privately support their EU membership for the opportunity to have a Trojan horse with veto power to block anti-Russian policies, he will fight against NATO membership.

Meanwhile, tensions have increased in Bosnia , where the war-ending Dayton Agreement, which also framed the dysfunctional constitutional order, has been undermined by Milorad Dodik, the ultra-nationalist Serb leader of the Republika Srpska entity, which enjoys partial autonomy within Bosnia-Herzegovina. Despite attempts by the international community and Bosnia’s Constitutional Court to stop him, Dodik went ahead with (and won) his long-threatened referendum on whether January 8th (an Orthodox Serb religious holiday) would also be classified as the National Day of Republika Srpska. It is seen as a precursor to a second referendum in 2018 on independence for the RS from Bosnia. At that point, tensions will be at their highest with a high probability of conflict as the majority Bosnian Muslims would be left with little choice but to defend the territorial integrity of their country, while an ever decreasing minority — Bosnian Croats — are likely to exploit the situation to form their own breakaway entity in the Herzegovina region.

While Serbian Prime Minister Aleksander Vučić has fallen in line with British, German, and American demands in opposing the increasingly confident Dodik and his nationalist rhetoric, including not supporting the referendum, Dodik continues with his ultra-nationalist stance thanks to the support of Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has increased his presence in the RS over recent years, celebrating the Slavic/Orthodox link between Russians and Serbs and using Dodik as an agent of chaos in the Balkans. It forms part of Putin’s strategy: firstly to expand and protect Russia’s sphere of influence and presence, and secondly, to ferment problems for the West, especially the EU. The referendum result undermines the viability and power of the central government in Sarajevo, which then feeds into Dodik’s push for secession. The short-term economic and political instability and the medium-term potential for conflict naturally create problems on the EU’s periphery and undermines the now German-led project to expand the European Union, while at the same time strengthening Russia’s position and bargaining power.

The western Balkans has been left under the supervision of the European Union for the past 10 years, which perhaps explains why there has been limited economic and political progress in the non-EU states of Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Macedonia. By its very nature, the European Union is not the best conduit for instilling order and advancing necessary reforms — divergent and, at times, diametrically opposed member state objectives and alliances make a forceful common policy difficult to implement.

In Montenegro, the October 16 general election returned the pro-West governing party, the Democratic Party of Socialists, to power with 40% of the vote despite losing their majority. The vote had been a litmus test on whether the country would continue with Western integration. Such steps are likely to continue, with NATO membership, which was already on offer, the most likely route toward neutralizing Russian involvement and influence in Montenegro. This would then increase the pressure for neighboring Serbia and the RS in Bosnia to move further toward Western integration.

A Trump presidency, however, remains a possibility. Such an outcome would complicate the situation further if Trump follows through on adopting a detached and isolationist foreign policy. The US would likely cease to be a major player in the Balkans going forward, leaving the Balkans for Russia, Turkey, Germany, and the United Kingdom to fight over.

Turkey maintains its interest in the Balkans, especially in Bosnia and the Muslim region of Sandzak that straddles both Serbia and Montenegro, on account of its history as the old imperial power. However, the interplay between German and British objectives is of significant interest in relation to their respective Russia policies and to each other. The UK has demonstrated a strong pro-Serbian bias since the 1870s during a string of Orthodox Christian uprisings in Serbia, Bosnia, and Bulgaria against the Ottoman Empire and the ensuing Great Eastern Crisis of 1875–78. This continued throughout the decades, including providing support to the royalist (and Nazi collaborator) Chetniks during World War II before shifting its support to Tito’s Partizans.

For London, the great strategic threat in the Balkans has been Germany, in addition to the traditional threats posed by Russia and Turkey. Before the Serb monarchy was abolished in 1945 Britain and Germany had vied for direct influence over the two Serb dynasties that ruled Serbia and the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. While the Obrenović monarchs looked to Berlin, the Karađorđević line would lean toward London. British support for the 2015 UNSC Resolution over Srebrenica should partially be viewed as a British attempt to reassert influence over Belgrade, at Berlin’s expense.

British support for the Milošević regime’s attempts at maintaining Yugoslavia in the early 90s, with more centralized power in Belgrade — in effect creating a Greater Serbia — was grounded in London’s desire to maintain a strong, unified Yugoslavia, over which it would hold influence. Such a Yugoslavia would act as a bulwark to a then newly unified Germany positioned to be the leading European power that would drive the European Union project. Germany’s historic influence over Slovenia and Croatia would, in turn, be diminished while a large, unified Yugoslavia would neutralize German dominion over the Balkans and act as an additional check on German leadership across the continent.

Germany’s push for the recognition of Slovenian and Croatian independence and European Community’s initiatives to install a peacekeeping force and a no-fly zone over Croatia as the war intensified throughout 1991 was juxtaposed to the British strategy. London initially led from the back by blocking recognition, making it clear that intervention would not occur and instead implementing a containment strategy. Helped by Washington’s willingness to defer to Britain’s judgement, London would eventually take the initiative by leading peace negotiations, gaining French support and pushing through a UN arms embargo, which guaranteed Serbia’s continued military dominance.

The end of the Cold War had threatened British force projection and influence on the world stage. Its geopolitical status was set to become commensurate with its economic status, in turn bringing an end to its role as the leading European power and most reliable American ally. A continent increasingly dominated by Berlin and Paris, pursuing deeper integration, would have left Britain on the fringes of decision making and influence. By adopting the stance they did between 1990–1992, the British were able to neutralize any hope of a common European foreign and security policy and preserve their independence and dominant status within Europe.

In 2017, British foreign policy is likely to adopt a similar strategy in its attempts at maintaining its geopolitical status post-Brexit. Having increased pressure and rhetoric over Russia throughout 2016 they will be looking to a Clinton presidency to cement their leading position as the US’ most useful ally in Europe and geopolitical supremacy. It is a pattern that plays out repeatedly, with the foreign policy establishment unable and unwilling to let go of their position on the world stage. The importance placed on the renewal of Trident was a clear sign of such sentiment.

However, the UK’s Balkan and European foreign policy objectives are dependent upon the supposed threat posed by Putin. Foreign Minister Boris Johnson called for war crimes investigations over Russia’s bombing of Syria, with French President Francois Hollande echoing those words, leading to the cancellation of a Putin-Hollande meeting.

Moreover, British Prime Minister Theresa May has made it clear that London will continue to play a leading role in European Union affairs until Brexit is finalized. While this is partly a bargaining tactic to force European concessions, lest the UK were to create a stalemate on a host of issues, it will predominantly be centered on foreign policy issues — both to stifle a German dominated foreign policy stance and to protect its own position. Part of the strategy will involve continuing David Cameron’s role in maintaining EU sanctions against Russian banks, energy companies, and weapons manufacturers, in addition to leading Kremlin figures, as demonstrated by a failed British and French attempt to implement further sanctions over Russia’s bombing of Aleppo during a recent EU summit. The pre-existing sanctions will, however, remain in place, particularly as NATO prepares to deploy tank and infantry divisions across the Baltics.

Britain does not have the capability to go it alone, especially against Russia, which is partly why it turns to France for support. A secondary aim is to distance France from Germany. In the event of a Clinton presidency, the United Kingdom will see its close ties to Belgrade as a key element in preserving British influence, power and utility to Washington within the context of stifling Russian influence in the Balkans. London holds disproportionate influence and power in NATO and will, therefore, push the Balkan states toward NATO membership and not necessarily EU membership, which would benefit Germany.

London will also understand that Hillary Clinton will seek to preserve Bill’s legacy in the Balkans. The Dayton Agreement and Bosnia’s territorial integrity cannot be threatened. Additionally, the US and Europe cannot afford increased tensions or the outbreak of war in Bosnia over the coming years, requiring them to neutralize the threat Russia and Dodik present. Clinton’s strong and hawkish anti-Putin policy is clear — she will adopt a more confrontational stance in Syria, Ukraine and the Balkans.

Conversely, a Trump presidency would almost certainly strengthen Russian influence in the Balkans, jeopardize Britain’s position as the leading anti-Russian European power and make a joint British and French soft power strategy in the former Yugoslav republics more likely. The present complexities of the situation will be multiplied. A Trump victory would also increase Turkish hopes of reclaiming its imperial influence in the region, particularly in Muslim-majority Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sandzak and Kosovo. A full-scale American withdrawal would leave Bosnian Muslims completely reliant on Turkish support going forward. Russian interests in the Balkans are largely ad hoc and superficial and so the possibility exists, however small, for Ankara to exploit its improved relations with Moscow to bring about an agreement over spheres of influence.