LOCAL PRESS

Dacic: We are devoted to EU integration and stability of region (RTS/Tanjug)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic underlined at the OSCE Ministerial Council in Hamburg Serbia’s strategic commitment for EU integration and interest in the region’s stability. He pointed out that Serbia is committed to the dialogue with Pristina that is conducted under EU auspices, as well as to the implementation of all reached agreements, especially those concerning the Community of Serb Municipalities. “We consider that an open and honest dialogue is the only way to improve everyday life of all people living in Kosovo and Metohija,” said Dacic.

Dacic pointed out that the OSCE despite the hard work in the past year continues to be confronted with serious and difficult problems, unresolved conflicts and new threats.

He also pointed to the challenges arising from migration and refugee flows, which cause great concern. I firmly believe that after numerous talks that we had in the past two years, participating states should allow the adoption of a document that is based on consensus and that would send a clear message about the importance of this issue, he concluded.

Dodik: RS to support SNS candidate (Tanjug/RTS)

“Serbia needs to continue on the same path. Serbia needs to offer trust to this government and continue with the project of long term stabilization. I think Serbia is on the right track,” said

Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik following talks with Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade. Asked by a reporter whether they discussed the presidential elections in Serbia, Dodik reiterated that he would support the candidate proposed by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). He says that the RS will always be on the side of what Serbian citizens choose, and that he has the right to voice his opinion. Dodik says that the RS has the best possible relations with Serbia.

Joksimovic: EU integration a mechanism of internal development (Tanjug)

The EU is the best peace and stability project post-WWII, despite the fact that the challenges it is facing are encouraging the development of nationalism, populism and Euroskepticism, Serbian Minister without portfolio in charge of EU Integration Jadranka Joksimovic said in an introductory address at the Belgrade Dialogues. The government and the citizens of Serbia see European integration as a mechanism of our internal development in the interest of stability and certainty, she said. The “less Europe, more Europe of nations” motto, based on rising nationalism, does not have to be negative if taken as a pragmatic and flexible approach, and if the EU finds adequate answers to protect its interests, she said. Serbia sees EU membership as an added value that will be a pinnacle of a more modern, more efficient and an economically more developed society, she said.

Green light for Chapter 5 (RTS)

The EU adopted the decision on opening Chapter 5 in the negotiations with Serbia, whereby formal conditions have been acquired for opening this chapter at the inter-governmental conference next week, RTS learned in Brussels. Slovakia, as the EU Chair, is expected to schedule a conference for 13 December.

Judiciary in northern Kosovo – Belgrade on the move (Beta)

Kosovo institutions have undertaken all measures necessary for implementing the agreement on the judiciary in northern Kosovo and they expect it to commence on 10 January 2017, Beta was told in the Kosovo government. “According to the agreement, Serbia will terminate on 9 December 2016 job contracts and abolish salaries of Serbian judges and prosecutors who will be integrated into the Kosovo judiciary system. Serbia is obliged to inform the EU by 9 December 2016 at the latest that it has conducted these obligations. Integration into the Kosovo system will be conducted on 10 January 2017,” Beta was told in the Kosovo government.

Djordjevic meets Graziano (Beta)

Serbian Defense Minister Zoran Djordjevic and Italian General Chief of Defense Staff Claudio Graziano agreed in Belgrade that cooperation in defense reflected the stable and friendly relations between the two countries and that cooperation was crowned with joint participation in multinational operations. “I particularly emphasize the joint deployment in the U.N. mission in Lebanon. Positive experiences, the trust that has been built and firm ties from the field form an excellent foundation to consider even more significant joint engagement,” the Minister said. Djordjevic thanked Graziano for the confirmation that Italy would not reduce the numbers of its forces in KFOR, in Kosovo, in the coming period.

REGIONAL PRESS

PIC SB ends two-day session, adopts communique re developments in B&H with dissenting opinion of Russia (N1)

The Peace Implementation Council Steering Board (PIC SB) ended its two-day session in Sarajevo on Wednesday. The PIC SB Ambassadors issued a communique referring to both positive and negative developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). Speaking at a press conference after the session, High Representative Valentin Inzko presented the conclusions referred to in this document. HR Inzko reiterated unquestionable support to territorial integrity and sovereignty of B&H and called on everyone to respect the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) and the Constitution of B&H. In this context, he touched upon the referendum on the Republika Srpska (RS) Day and underlined that decisions of the Constitutional Court (CC) of B&H must be respected and implemented because they are final and binding. Speaking about the situation in Stolac which was one of the topics of the session, HR Inzko called on the B&H Central Election Commission (CEC) to reach a decision to hold the local elections in this municipality again, without further postponement. Speaking about the issue of Mostar, HR Inzko assessed that another year without elections in this city represents an ultimate failure of responsible parties to meet the democratic standards and to ensure the citizens’ fundamental right to vote. He noted that members of the B&H Presidency Dragan Covic and Bakir Izetbegovic said at their meeting with the PIC SB Political Directors on Wednesday that the issue of Mostar “might be resolved soon”. HR Inzko expressed his expectation that they will meet this promise, as well as the promise that the work of the Federation of B&H Parliament will be unblocked. The reporter also noted that the Russian Federation issued a dissenting opinion regarding the referendum issue. The PIC SB also expressed concern regarding radicalism and extremism related threats in B&H, including financing of terrorism. They welcomed activities of B&H authorities in fight against terrorism and encouraged them to continue with improving mutual cooperation.

Federation of B&H has numerous problems, yet PIC SB criticized only referendum in RS (Glas Srpske)

The most recent two-day session of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) Steering Board (SB) actually proved that there is no need whatsoever for those sessions – as everybody knew beforehand what would be the conclusion of political directors. Zeljka Domazet, the author of the article noted that the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Government and the Parliament of the Federation of B&H are not doing their respective jobs; that the Constitutional Court of B&H’s decision related to Mostar has not been implemented for more than eight years, and that elections in Stolac have turned into a small war between Bosniaks and Croats – yet PIC SB decided to criticize only the referendum in the RS and democratic expression of the will of citizens. Domazet noted, Inzko warned that the Constitution of B&H is an integral part of the Dayton Peace Agreement and that decisions of the B&H CC are final and binding. “Srpska does not have anything against the Constitutional Court as an institution, but it is very much against the Constitutional Court as it is, with three foreigners who can team up with two Bosniak judges and adopt whichever decision they want. Including decision that one people must not celebrate whatever it wants. Those who wrote the communique knows this very well, but they do not want to know that,” Domazet concluded.

RS CC VNI Council’s decision on violation of Bosniaks’ VNI continues to spark reactions (RTRS)

At the session which took place in Banja Luka on Wednesday, MPs in the RS National Assembly (RSNA) discussed the ruling of the RS Constitutional Court (CC), according to which the vital national interest (VNI) of Bosniak people was violated during the adoption of decisions following the referendum on the RS Day. RSNA Deputy Speaker Nenad Stevandic explained that such ruling is a consequence of a procedural omission which can be corrected in spring already. However, members of the ruling coalition assessed that such explanation is unacceptable, calling for someone to be held responsible in criminal and political terms. NDP Vice President Zdravko Krsmanovic accused RS President Milorad Dodik of being responsible for the fact that the RS CC disputed the results of the referendum. Krsmanovic noted that “deliberate omissions” with publication of the referendum results have shown that Dodik used the RS government and the RS National Assembly (RSNA) for the purpose of winning the local elections. NS leader Adam Sukalo deems that someone should be held responsible for the fact that the referendum results were disputed by the RS CC due to procedural error. Reporter noted that SDS earlier assessed that the procedural error was done on purpose in order to turn the referendum into a simple survey, which SNSD abused for the purpose of local elections. SDS Leader Vukota Govedarica said that this was nothing but a survey. As for the decision by Council for Vital National Interest Protection of the Constitutional Court of B&H, which determined violation of VNI of Bosniaks, Govedarica noted that someone for procedural reasons guided the RS Constitutional Court to pass such decision.

Izetbegovic: Grabar-Kitarovic demonstrated disrespect towards B&H (TV1)

B&H Presidency member Bakir Izetbegovic issued a statement as a reaction to the recent statement by President of Croatia Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic regarding B&H. He deems that the Croatian President demonstrated disrespect towards B&H and its leadership. “It is not good to call B&H a non-emancipated country, to comment clothing of Bosniak men and women and to exaggerate the problem of so-called Islamic extremism in B&H, or to add up two zeros to the number of returnees from foreign warzones”, Izetbegovic was quoted as saying. He emphasized that “Ustasha extremism is blooming in Croatia” and that citizens of this country are also departing to foreign warzones – Ukraine. Izetbegovic also mentioned the recent unveiling of memorial in Jasenovac with engraved “Nazi greeting”. In the end, he expressed hope that “Grabar-Kitarovic will take more care about her own front yard and leave us to take care of ours”. He also said that all leaders in the region should think twice before commenting relations and issues in neighboring countries. Izetbegovic deems that the Croatian President demonstrated disrespect towards B&H and its leadership.

SDA announces it will reject SNSD’s proposal of law on B&H CC (Glas Srpske)

SDA stated on Wednesday that this party will not accept the Proposal of the Law on the B&H Constitutional Court (CC) which was presented by SNSD and which stipulates exclusion of foreign judges from B&H CC or changes the way in which decisions are made by this court without prior introduction of changes to the complete constitutional structure of B&H with regard to competencies of various levels of authorities. “Introducing changes to B&H CC only without introducing other changes would lead to a harsh violation of balance which was established by the Dayton Peace Accords,” SDA stated. The Collegium of SDA rejected as tendentious and arbitrary the statement of B&H Presidency Chair Mladen Ivanic that the closure of OHR and departure of foreign judges from B&H CC represent a prerequisite for B&H to obtain the status of the EU member candidate. SDA concluded by saying that a request to discuss B&H judiciary before B&H Parliament is legitimate.

In 2017 chapters closing begins (RTCG)

Montenegrin Prime Minister Dusko Markovic said that he expected three more negotiation chapters to be opened before the end of the year. Speaking after meetings with ambassadors of the EU countries in Podgorica, he emphasized that the priority of the Montenegrin government was fulfilling and implementing reforms that will provide economic stability, with the support of the EU members. For Slovakia and other EU Member States it is important that the new government would be regarded as the Government of continuity when it comes to foreign policy priorities, such as the EU and NATO.

Ivanov calls for national reconciliation in Macedonia (Republika)

Only a responsible behavior on 11 December will put an end to the political crisis and mark an onset of national reconciliation in Macedonia, something that’s needed more than ever, Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov said late Wednesday in his address. He called on ruling, opposition parties to behave responsibly as the pre-election campaign was coming to its end.

PACE to observe elections in Macedonia (Republika)

A 17-member delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), led by Austria’s Stefan Schennach, will travel to Republic of Macedonia from 9 to 12 December to observe the conduct of the early parliamentary elections, alongside observers from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the European Parliament and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). The delegation will meet, in particular, leaders and representatives of political parties, the Chairman of the State Election Commission, the Special Prosecutor, and representatives of international organizations, civil society and the media, before observing the ballot on 11 December, PACE said in a press release. A member of the Venice Commission – the Council of Europe’s group of independent legal experts – will provide legal support during the visit. Sunday’s early parliamentary elections in Macedonia will be followed by 4,706 observers and 60 foreign journalists, said the State Election Commission (SEC). A total of 4,047 domestic and 659 foreign observers applied for accreditation to SEC up to the December 6 deadline. Association MOST has the most domestic observers with 3,435, while OSCE/ODIHR has accredited most observers (280) from the pool of foreign missions. Regarding foreign journalists, Al Jazeera Balkans has accredited 16 journalists, followed by RTV Pristina (7), Turkish state television TRT (6), Top Channel Tirana (5) etc.

Koenders calls on voters to go to polls to vote for Macedonia’s future (MIA)

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, Bert Koenders, is urging the voters in Macedonia to go to the polls on 11 December and decide on their country’s future. “It is up to you, as our friends, citizens and voters from Macedonia, to demand the freedom and reforms that are necessary for moving your country closer to Europe and towards stability and stronger democracy,” Koenders says in a video sent to the media by the Dutch embassy to Skopje. The Netherlands, he adds, has always been a close friend of the Macedonian democracy and Macedonia faces historic crossroads. “As a Foreign Minister of the Netherlands, it is not my place to take sides with particular political options. But it is my duty to advocate for the European values. If the Macedonian voters want to get closer to Europe, they will have to stand for accountability and for the rule of law. One has to stand against corruption and for free media, independent judiciary and democracy,” Koenders notes.

Macedonia to produce ammunition and firearms for NATO (Telegraf.mk)

The construction of production facility for weapons, ammunition and equipment starts in Macedonia. US Broadstone Defense officially marked Wednesday the beginning of the investment worth $5 million in Makedonski Brod, which will cover an area of 10 hectares and which is envisaged to include five production halls, an administrative building and a storage area. Speaking at Wednesday’s groundbreaking ceremony, Defense Minister Zoran Jolevski said Broadstone Defense would transfer state-of-the-art technology in the small Macedonian town, from where the US army and NATO members would be provided with ammunition and personal defense weapons. “This investment is very important. Besides creating new jobs, Macedonia will get a state of the art production facility for firearms and ammunition, according to NATO standards. But this is also a very important step forward in strengthening the combat readiness of the Macedonian Army (ARM),” stressed Jolevski.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Füle: If the EU disengages from the Balkans, others will engage ‘immediately’ (EurActiv, by Georgi Gotev, 7 December 2016)

Former Enlargement Commissioner Štefan Füle told an audience today (7 December) that if the EU distances itself from the Western Balkans, other geopolitical players will immediately seize the opportunity to assert their influence over the region.

The ex-Commissioner, who now works as a special envoy to the Balkans for the Czech ministry of foreign affairs, spoke to the BALKANS – boosting connections on the road to the EU conference, organised by the Friends of Europe, a Brussels think tank. The current pace of enlargement is not sustainable, said Füle, who was in charge of this portfolio in the Barroso Commission from 2010 to 2014. He appeared to be referring to the current “pause” in enlargement, declared by current Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who said that no new member will join the EU during his term.

In the meantime, Russia and Turkey are making efforts to fill the vacuum. Russia is relying on its close relations with Serbia, reinforced during the 1999 NATO airstrikes over the Kosovo crisis, and is reported to be attempting to change the political direction of Montenegro, which recently joined NATO. For its part, Turkey has a growing appetite for its former Ottoman territories, where a majority of Muslims live, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Kosovo and parts of Macedonia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently spoke of Turkey’s “borders of the heart”, mentioning the capital of Macedonia, Skopje and even the Bulgarian city of Kardzhali. Füle said that the Western Balkans’ progress so far, on the way to EU enlargement, was still too fragile to acknowledge that the point of no return has been reached. Any disengagement by the EU from the region would result in “other forces engaging immediately”, he said. Füle also argued that since the Brexit referendum, with an EU member disengaging, the countries of the Western Balkans (Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Macedonia, Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina) no longer could buy the argument that they are “part of Europe”.

Goran Svilanović, a Serbian diplomat who leads the Regional Cooperation Council, a Sarajevo-based centre fostering euro-Atlantic integration in the Western Balkans, was perhaps even more critical. He said that since the Dutch referendum on the Ukraine association agreement, Western Balkans states no longer believed that their EU accession was credible.

‘A huge bell ringing’

On 6 April, Dutch voters rejected a European pact with Ukraine in a referendum seen as a barometer of anti-EU feeling, dealing an embarrassing blow to the government in charge of the rotating EU presidency, sending shockwaves throughout the Union. Many diplomats take the view that ratification of international agreements by national parliaments, including on EU enlargement, where unanimity is required, could in the future block the whole process. The Serbian diplomat deplored the fact that the foreign ministers of the region had been invited to meet their EU colleagues only once, in order to discuss the refugee crisis. He also voiced his disappointment with the Commission’s decision to present the next enlargement package, a yearly ritual of assessing the EU hopefuls, only in 2018. Although the idea seems unrealistic, he advised the EU to start accession talks with all six countries (currently talks have been started only with Serbia and Montenegro). As an easier alternative, he proposed at least conducting pre-screening for opening chapters 23 and 24 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights and Justice, Freedom and Security) with all six countries. “Keep us busy, help us be successful,” he said.

Svilanović cited data according to which at least 30% of people in the region didn’t believe that their countries will ever join the EU. Referring to the uncertainty around the EU itself, which could partly explain the concern, he advocated that Western Balkan countries should use the funds earmarked for enlargement, “and then we will see about the EU”.

Gordon Duguid, Senior Advisor for South Eastern Europe in the US State Department, spoke of the need to address nationalism, which in his view was often exacerbated in the region in an effort to return to the previous authoritarian system. “Nationalism does need to be addressed and as progress is made on the economic front with the help of the EU, some of the nationalism will subside. There are outside forces that are trying to block that process as we recently saw in Montenegro.”

Turkey’s Role in the Western Balkans (SWP, by Alida Vračić, December 2016)

Since the early 1990s, Turkey has come a long way in reasserting itself in the Balkans. The end of the Cold War transformed Turkish foreign policy strategies, which were aimed at securing greater political influence in the Balkans. A lack of coherent policies from the European Union (EU) and the lack of clear goals for the former Yugoslav countries opened up new possibilities for Turkey. Using its so-called soft power, Turkey has created an efficient network of institutions across the region focused on religion, culture, and history. Schools and universities, the Hizmet movement, and Fethullah Gülen’s advocates and networks have flourished in the Balkans and nowadays constitute a network of NGOs and religious centers. Using a sentimental interpretation of common history, Turkey has gained considerable influence among Muslim communities, but not much elsewhere. Turkey’s public discourse favoring Muslim communities has proved to be a self-imposed limitation, incapacitating Turkey from more meaningful influence in the region as a whole. Moreover, a long-promised economic boost for the region has not been realized. The strong economic growth that Turkey experienced in the early 2000s, which enabled it to make more commitments to the region in the first place, did not help it surpass the economic possibilities offered to the region by the EU. Recent developments in Turkey and its growing authoritarianism make Turkey a less desirable future model to be followed. On the other hand, Turkey’s current regime may be appealing to the Western Balkan leaders, who themselves feature more anti-democratic practices. With poor economic prospects and the missing strength of an EU anchor in the Western Balkans, there is a great necessity to synchronize approaches in the Western Balkans.

Croatian President’s Year Sees High and Lows (BIRN, by Sven Milekic, 8 December 2016)

Croatian President Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic’s statements over 2016 have caused controversy and drawn media attention, delighting some and infuriating others both at home and in the region.

Croatian President Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic has angered some and delighted others with her statements and actions over the year.

1. The wrong kind of chocolate:

Visiting the southern coastal resort of Dubrovnik – marking the 25 anniversary of the attack on the town by the Yugoslav People’s Army, JNA, and Serbian paramilitaries – Grabar Kitarovic visited a local kindergarten and gave out signed photos of herself to the children.

However, she inadvertently angered one local parent who said it “was sad” that on such a day she was also giving out chocolate produced in Serbia, the dominant force in the old Yugoslavia – whose army had bombarded Dubrovnik. The President sounded mortified. “I was extremely disappointed to find some products in the basket that were not products of Croatia, which is just fine, they are there on the Croatian market, but as the Croatian President I must promote Croatian products,” she apologised on Wednesday, pledging that it would not happen again.

2. ISIS fighters swarm back to Bosnia:

In a comment to Al Jazeera Balkans this Tuesday, the Croatian President claimed that “thousands of [ISIS] fighters” were returning to Bosnia, quoting an alleged report of the Bosnian State Investigation and Protection Agency, SIPA. She angered many in Bosnia – whose Security Minister, Dragan Mektic, insisted no SIPA report made any such claim.

3. Putting her feet up:

Is the Croatian President a secret advertiser? When Croatia and Argentina played the Davis Cup tennis finals in Zagreb in late November, Grabar Kitarovic put her feet up on the fence while sitting in the stands. She may have been just relaxing – but some claimed that she was promoting the firm that made her sneakers, which were produced by the Croatian footwear company, Borovo.

4. A land of few resources, apparently:

How well informed is the Croatian head of state? On her visit to Canada in late November, she caused some suprise by claiming that Canada had kept hold of its young people, while attracting other youngsters worldwide, despite its “lack of natural resources”. That was news to Canadians. Business Insider has ranked Canada as the fourth country in the world in terms of its immense natural resources, including oil, gas, gold and uranium.

5. Not the right flag:

The media also reported how Grabar Kitarovic, on meeting some Croats in Canada, her her photograph taken with a group of men holding a Croatian flag. Unfortunately, it resembled the flag used by the Ustasa, the Fascist movement that rule Croatia in World War Two, rather than the official flag.

6. Dangerous Russia:

The Croatian President is not making any friends in Moscow. During her visit to Canada, she gave an interview for the US media outlet Defense News, in which she said Russia might well help Bosnia’s Serb-led entity, Republika Srpska, in its push for independence, which would cause a potential conflict with the rest of Bosnia. Visiting the western town of Delnice earlier in November, meanwhile, Grabar Kitarovic read out stories to local children, giving them her favourite chapters from a children’s book.

7. Their President … or ours:

In late October, just before the US presidential elections, she made a slip while commenting on who would win. “Americans will decide who will be our next president – I mean, their next president,” she said and quickly corrected herself.

8. Those hooligans are just like Yugoslavs:

During the Euro Cup in France in June, Grabar Kitarovic wrote a post on Facebook after some Croatian fans tried to disrupt a football match between Croatia and the Czech Republic by throwing flares on the field. “Bravo, Croatian fans! And to you, enemies of Croatia, who hate their team and country … you’ll answer for this and for the swastika [placed by unknown perpetrators on the pitch in Split in June 2015]! Shame on you,” she wrote. She also likened the hooligans who threw flares on the pitch to members of a militant pro-Yugoslav group from the 1920s, the Organisation of Jugoslav Nationalists, or Orjuna, who used violence and terror to repress both Croatian nationalists and communists. The term is usually used by the far right in Croatia to discredit people seen as lacking patriotism.

9. Not much sympathy for Serbs:

Even this year, in February, she harshly replied to the Croatian Serbian politician Milorad Pupovac, when he complained to her about the pressures that face activists, journalists and directors in Croatia. Grabar Kitarovic responded that some of the figures who Pupovac had mentioned as targets were people who “provoke, irritate and even offend most of the Croatian public”. She accused them of mocking Croatia’s 1991-95 war of independence and of denying “the very idea of the Croatian state, creating an atmosphere of tension, exclusion, and intolerance”. She also insisted that “insults to the national sentiments of the Croatian people” cannot be seen as “‘acts of performance’, ‘journalistic and artistic freedoms’, or ‘satire’”.

Beware of the Russian Bear in the Balkans (Atlantic Council, by Harriet Salem, 7 December 2016)

On October 16, just hours before Montenegrins were due to head to the polls, the government made an alarming announcement. It claimed security services had foiled a Russian nationalist attempt to seize control of the parliament and assassinate Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic (who has since resigned). The Kremlin undoubtedly has an axe to grind with the Montenegrin leader. Djukanovic’s support for economic sanctions on Russia over the annexation of Crimea, and his determination to take his country into NATO, have not won him any friends in Moscow. But politics in the Balkans is rarely a straightforward affair. As critics were quick to point out, the alleged assassination plot came at a convenient moment for Djukanovic and his Democratic Party of Socialists, who had been under pressure from anti-government demonstrators in the build-up to the election. Or as the Democratic Front, Montenegro’s main pro-Russian opposition party, put it, the incident was “a cheap, staged and performed vaudeville coup” aimed at scaring voters into maintaining the status quo. While the claim that a prime minister staged a coup to win an election may seem outlandish, investigative journalists and opposition parties have long accused him of corruption, including vote-rigging, and having ties to organized crime. Djukanovic, who has ruled the country for most of the last two and half decades, was awarded the dubious title of ‘2015 Man of the Year in Organized Crime’ by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. Nearly two months on, details of the alleged coup plot remain murky. Last month, Montenegro announced it had made twenty arrests, but most of the suspects were later released. Among them was Aleksander Sindjelic, a veteran Serbian nationalist and fighter in east Ukraine, who was granted ‘protected witness status’—a fact that proves the coup was faked, according to Montenegro’s opposition. “I think what a lot of people are saying right now is, if I’m going to believe the Montenegrin government, I want some damn sight better evidence than they’re providing,” says James Ker-Lindsay, a senior research fellow on the politics of southeast Europe at the London School of Economics. “On the one hand you say there might be a plausible case that Russia’s hand is in this, but on the other hand this came precisely at the right moment, and I wouldn’t put anything past [Djukanovic] to try and stay in power,” he adds. Coup aside, what is not in doubt is that Russia has been steadily working to regain a foothold in the western Balkan region by promoting a Pan-Slavic identity through cultural and political channels. The approach, which frames Moscow as the protector and natural leader of Orthodox Slavs, seeks to challenge EU and NATO expansion into the region, particularly in Montenegro and neighboring Serbia. In Belgrade, Serbia’s capital, Russia’s growing influence can be felt on the street. Putin souvenirs sold in kiosks on the main shopping strip are “best-sellers,” according to vendors. Among them are fridge magnets with a photoshopped image of Russian President Vladimir Putin in a Chetnik hat, and T-shirts featuring him in camouflage gear with the slogan ‘the politest of people’ —a hat-tip to the so-called ‘little green men’ that invaded Ukraine’s southern peninsula in 2014. The western Balkans, however, are not Crimea or east Ukraine. At the most basic level, Moscow is more than 1,200 miles from Podgorica and Belgrade, with several EU countries in between. Rolling tanks across the border is clearly not an option. And while support for the EU in the region may be lackluster, it is for now at least the route being pursued by both countries; recent elections in Serbia and Montenegro have returned governments that campaigned on pro-West platforms. That said, the prospect of EU membership has lost allure in recent years. In Serbia, support for the bloc has dropped by 32 points since 2009, and currently hovers around 41 percent. In Montenegro, it’s a slightly better 54 percent, but still down three points as of 2014. The reasons for this are manifold. The accession process for both countries has dragged on for years, and will likely do so for several more. The EU has put a freeze on enlargement until at least 2020, but even this seems an optimistic deadline given the current rate of progress. Tumultuous times in Europe, from the financial crisis to the migrant crisis and the rise of the far-right, have also served to further dampen public support for joining the bloc. But it’s not just geopolitical circumstance that is making public support so lukewarm. While the EU is distracted with its own internal problems, Moscow has quietly stepped up its efforts to win hearts and minds.

In January, Sputnik, a Kremlin-backed online media outlet, celebrated its first anniversary of publishing in Serbian with an announcement that its app had been downloaded more than 100,000 times. The publication, which also has a locally-syndicated radio show, promotes Russia’s worldview and often runs virulently anti-Western content. Recent articles in its Europe section included a piece on a secret deal between Turkey and the EU to trap a “tsunami” of migrants in Serbia, and another on the end of the “epoch of Western dominance.” Deepening their impact, its stories are often picked up by Serbia’s burgeoning tabloid press, which is also a popular source of news for Serbian speakers in Montenegro, Macedonia, and North Kosovo.

“These [Russian] news services in the Serbian language are very proactive, and they’re filling a void because of the nature of media here—there’s a lack of investment in real journalism,” says Daniel Sunter, a defense and security analyst. Alongside its media campaign, Russia has also pursued a low-cost, high-impact effort at the United Nations. There, it has used its veto power to block resolutions opposed by Belgrade, most notably on the recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign state and, more recently, on the condemnation of the Srebrenica massacre as an act of genocide.

In a similar vein, earlier this year, Moscow also backed a controversial referendum in Republika Srpska, the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The vote was so widely seen as stoking ethnic tensions that even Belgrade refused to endorse it. Moscow’s unwavering support for these issues creates the idea in people’s minds that “Russia is providing real unconditional friendship,” says Ker-Lindsay. “Of course that’s not true, Russia has demanded to get into Serbia’s energy industry… and Serbia now owes Moscow for two security council vetoes.” Other stunts, such as a ‘Slavic Brotherhood’ war games drill held jointly with Serbian, Montenegrin, and Russian troops in October, and the inauguration in Podgorica of a ‘Balkan Cossack Army’ attended by the Night Wolves, a motorbike gang with close ties to Putin, are more for show. Neither Montenegro or Serbia have an army of any real size. Nonetheless, the combined impact of all these endeavors is significant. A 2015 International Republican Institute poll found 94 percent of Serbs support maintaining strong ties with Russia. Moscow’s support on the Kosovo issue, and its willingness to “stand up to” the West, were cited as key reasons. Around a third of respondents also incorrectly identified Russia as the biggest financial donor to their country.

In Montenegro, too, the EU has struggled to get its message across. Although the bloc has poured some 235 million euros into the country over the last decade, Montenegro’s ambassador to the EU, Mitja Drobnic, admitted that “not enough people know that Montenegro benefits from EU funds… let alone that the EU is the largest international donor.” According to a recent poll, only 11 percent of Montenegrins feel they have access to comprehensive information about accession. For the EU, the situation is not yet a disaster, but policy makers must act now to end a culture of complacency that sees countries on Europe’s periphery as reflexively wanting to join the bloc. In fact, if referendums on membership were held in Montenegro and Serbia tomorrow, the results could well kibosh the two countries’ accession bids. Yet the solution is not as simple as expediting the process. Doing so could, at worst, mean ushering in countries that may later pivot back toward Russia. At best, it would risk repeating the mistakes of 2007, when woefully underprepared Bulgaria and Romania were given entry, leaving a wide range of corruption and governance issues unresolved.

Key issues relating to EU accession such as corruption and press freedom are far from resolved in both Serbia and Montenegro. Human Rights Watch recently warned that western Balkan countries had “failed to take concrete action” to address “impediments to media,” and Freedom House rates the press in both as only “partly free.” For the EU, the road to further enlargement, and indeed the role it wants to play in the region, will require plenty of soul searching. In part, this means doing a better job of promoting the good it is doing in the region, particularly in terms of financial investment, but it must also move swiftly to pressure governments it has aligned itself with to improve democratic standards and tackle corruption. If the EU fails to do this, it will ultimately undermine itself much more than Moscow is ever able to.

Harriet Salem is Belgrade-based freelance journalist covering Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Macedonia Leader Slated for Urging Rival’s Assassination (BIRN, by Sinisa Jakov Marusic, 8 December 2016)

An election rally statement by Nikola Gruevski, leader of Macedonia’s ruling party, at which he appeared to suggest his main political rival ought to be assassinated, has been widely condemned.

Nikola Gruevski, leader of Macedonia’s main ruling VMRO DPMNE party, has been condemned for suggesting that if 19th and 20th century Macedonian freedom fighters were alive today, they would assassinate his main political opponent, Zoran Zaev, head of the Social Democrats.

“This breaks all the limits … It is inhumanely low and shameful to threaten an opposition leader with a death sentence, whatever he might be … There are radicals from all political sides who may interpret this as a call for a lynch,” university professor Nenad Markovic said. While Markovic sees Gruevski’s statement as a message directed mainly to VMRO DPMNE supporters to close ranks ahead of the December 11 elections, he said that such “sloppy political messages” could also motivate people to vote against them. “Everyone who sees him or herself as at least a mild critic of a politician who sends these messages is now probably more motivated … to come out and vote against him,” Markovic said. On Monday, addressing a party rally in the town of Delcevo, Gruevski claimed that if the leader of the Ottoman-era guerrilla organisation VMRO, Goce Delcev, were alive today, he would have sent one of his top revolutionaries to “end the story” with Zaev. “If Delcev were alive today, he [Zaev] would not be able to even say hello to him. He would have been assigned only to Kjoseto [one of his henchmen] to end the story with this kind of man,” Gruevski told the rally. Delcevo, a town named after the Macedonian national hero, was the site of an opposition rally just several days before at which Zaev said that Gruevski had broken all of Delcev’s principles for a free and prosperous Macedonia over the ten years since his party had been in power. Andon Kjoseto is a controversial figure in Macedonian history as, according to historical records and his own memoirs, he acted as an assassin for VMRO, mainly targeting people who were pronounced traitors to the cause of freeing Macedonia from Ottoman rule, including his own brother. In 2014, the government courted controversy when it backed the erection of his bronze statue in front of Skopje’s main criminal court in which Kjoseto is depicted with a dagger in his hand. Journalist and government critic Saso Ordanovski on Tuesday told A1 On news portal that Gruevski was trying to infuse fear among his critics and added that, “in a normal country, that alone would result in his election defeat”. The high stakes elections comes against a backdrop of a longstanding crisis that revolves around opposition accusations that Gruevski masterminded the illegal wiretapping of some 20,000 people, including his own ministers. Gruevski has denied the claims. One of Gruevski’s main punchlines in these elections has been that if Zaev, whom he deems a a traitor, comes to power, he would put into effect a secret plan to turn Macedonia into a federal state and formally divide it along ethnic lines between Macedonians and Albanians, who make up a quarter of the population. Zaev has denied this as a fabrication. The opposition insists that since Gruevski’s party came to power in 2006, he has established a regime based on corruption and injustice. The allegations of high-level crime, which the opposition insists are contained in the wiretaps they released in batches in 2015 are being investigated by the Special Prosecution, SJO,which was established last year as part of an EU-brokered political crisis deal. Among other things, the SJO charges that Gruevski ordered a physical attack on the opposition mayor of the Centar municipality in Skopje, Andrej Zernovski [which he evaded], during protests in front of the municipal HQ in 2013.

Right-wing Strongman Set for Political Comeback in Macedonia (Reuters, 7 December 2016)

SKOPJE/BELGRADE — Macedonia’s veteran nationalist leader Nikola Gruevski looks set for a comeback in Sunday’s parliamentary election, posing a challenge to the European Union and its strategy of coaxing Balkan nations to make painful reforms in exchange for aid.

Gruevski, who led the tiny ex-Yugoslav republic for almost a decade as head of the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE, stepped down in January as part of an EU-brokered deal to end a crisis that began in early 2015, when the opposition accused the government of widespread wiretapping and exposed recorded conversations that appeared to show corruption at the highest levels.

The EU has long criticized Gruevski’s record on safeguarding democracy and the rule of law in Macedonia, but it needs Skopje’s cooperation in tackling Europe’s migrant crisis, in which more than 1 million people, mostly Muslims fleeing wars in the Middle East, have entered the bloc in the past 18 months. Many of those migrants entered the EU along the so-called Balkan route, passing from Turkey to Greece and then up via Macedonia, Serbia and Croatia toward Western Europe. “This has become a test of the EU’s ability to rein in the growing authoritarianism in southeastern Europe,” said James Ker-Lindsay, senior research fellow on the politics of southeast Europe at the London School of Economics. “The key in all of this is the refugee crisis. Macedonia, I think very cleverly, realized this was its way out.” Macedonia’s status as a front-line state in the migrant crisis has strengthened its bargaining position with the EU, whose leverage over Skopje has in any case weakened because of the complete lack of progress in the country’s bid to join the bloc. Greece has long blocked Skopje’s application to join both the EU and NATO because of a row over the name of Macedonia, which is also the name of a northern Greek province. Athens’ stance has discouraged Skopje from implementing EU-backed reforms and has fostered distrust of Brussels among Macedonians.

Indifference to EU

“I care about the EU as much as they care about me, and that is: We both don’t care. I have my problems, they have theirs,” said Dimitar Petkovski, 41, a civil servant. In its latest draft document on Macedonia’s progress toward EU membership, Brussels says the new government must respect judicial independence and media freedom and tackle graft and the blurring of lines between the state and political parties. But Cvete Koneska, a senior analyst and Macedonia specialist at Control Risks, a London consultant on security and other types of risk, said the prospect of EU accession would move even further down the agenda under a new Gruevski government. “That one lever there was, as weak as it was, might be removed,” she said, referring to the possibility that Macedonia might turn its back completely on the EU. The latest opinion polls gave VPRO-DPMNE a lead of up to 12 percentage points over its main rival, the center-left Social Democrats. Three ethnic Albanian parties are also contesting the election, the most successful of which is likely to become the junior partner in a future government. Ethnic Albanians make up about one-third of Macedonia’s total population of 2 million.