LOCAL PRESS

Chapters 5, 25 opened (Beta)

At an inter-governmental conference on Serbia’s accession to the EU two chapters were opened on Dec. 13 – 5 on public procurements and 25 on science and research, while Chapter 25 was closed at the same time. Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic told a news conference in Belgrade that only Croatia had not supported opening Chapter 26. “I have been given no reason as to what Serbia has not done. There is no answer – there is silence,” he said. “We will not be the ones whom anyone, at any time, will be able to humiliate. You will never be able to trample on Serbia, neither to trample on it or humiliated it. That is the table of our values, with it we entered into the negotiations, with that we shall come out, I hope as an EU member. If not, then as modern country,” he stated.

Sarcevic: Serbia has done everything to open Chapter 26 (Tanjug)

Serbia has done everything – fully and flawlessly – to open Chapter 26 in its EU accession talks, with all demands of national minorities met not because of the chapter, but for the sake of lasting standards in the country, Serbian Minister of Education, Science and Technological Development Mladen Sarcevic said Wednesday. “It is a purely political whim of a different kind – ask the other 27 EU member states why they have no objections. There is no veto from Bulgaria – I have met with the country’s minister, we were together in Bosilegrad and agreed there is not the slightest problem there,” Sarcevic told reporters in Kragujevac after Croatia vetoed the opening of the chapter, which deals with education and culture.

Serbia ends BSEC presidency (Beta)

At a conference in Belgrade, Serbia handed over to Turkey a six-month presidency over the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). Dacic said that the priorities of the Serbian presidency had been to develop economic cooperation between the BSEC members, transportation and infrastructure links, cooperation with other international organizations, the European Union and the United Nations in particular, a reform of the organization, including restrictive financial measures, the consolidation and simplification of the BSEC structure.

Procedure for allocating dialing code for Kosovo begins (Politika)

The procedure for allocating the dialing code +383 “for the geographical region of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija” has commenced with the letter sent by official Belgrade to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). The annex of the ITU technical documentation mentions Kosovo, but with an asterisk and footnote stating “this name does not prejudge the status and is in accordance with Resolution 1244 and the ICJ opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence”.

Serbian judges and prosecutors in the Kosovo system as of 10 January 2017 (Politika)

Official Belgrade has informed the EU that employment will cease as of 10 January 2017 for judges, prosecutors and administrative staff who receive salaries from the Serbian budget and that they will be able to work under the Kosovo judicial system afterwards.

REGIONAL PRESS

Inzko: Principle of ethnic representation in appointments to posts in judicial bodies is exception from appointments based solely on credits (FTV)

High Representative Valentin Inzko reacted on Tuesday to the statement of President of the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council (HJPC) of B&H Milan Tegeltija given on the eve of appointment of new President of the Court of B&H. To remind, Tegeltija said that when appointing the presidents of judicial institutions at the level of B&H there is no a single legal or constitutional provision or any regulation that obliges the HJPC to make sure that any ethnicity must or cannot be at the helm of the Court of B&H. Inzko stated that the Article 9, Paragraph 3 of the Constitution of B&H stipulates that officials appointed to posts in B&H institutions usually reflect the structure of B&H peoples. “I am convinced that the appointments in judicial bodies should be performed on grounds of merits, as well as that the constitutional principle of representation represents an exception from the appointments made solely on grounds of merits. At the same time, representation of peoples of B&H is still of crucial interest in a multi-ethnic society and a country which is based on equality and coexistence of constituent peoples and Others,” Iznko pointed out.

Commenting the issue of Mostar and a promise made by SDA and HDZ B&H to the Peace Implementation Council, High Representative Valentin Inzko said: “They promised to resolve all the open issues by the end of the year, more precisely, to resolve all open issues that are on the Federation of B&H Government agenda in the Federation of B&H Parliament by the end of the year. We received a promise, not only I, but all PIC members who came to the Presidency… There is still time until December 31.” He noted that the PIC was very clear when it comes to Stolac – it must not become second Mostar.

Serbs support Dodik’s suggestion on forming of international commission to establish truth on Srebrenica (EuroBlic)

Following a suggestion of the Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik that an international commission should be formed to establish the truth on wartime events in Srebrenica, Director of the RS Center for Research of War, War Crimes and Search for Missing Persons Milorad Kojic stated that the international community would have to accept new evidence on crimes committed in July 1995 in Srebrenica if foreign experts conducted the investigation. Kojic also noted that an international commission would give a greater legitimacy to arguments which have been established so far or disputed by Bosniaks and Sarajevo. Kojic claimed that the RS did not act late in determining of truth in Srebrenica and he added that Dodik’s suggestion is good. The daily reminded that the RS authorities accepted a disputable report back in 2004, which noted that some 8,000 persons were killed or went missing in the area of Srebrenica. Kojic argued that the exact number of killed Bosniaks has never been established in processes carried out by the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

“The Federation of B&H keeps insisting that boys and men were killed in Srebrenica, while we have established that majority of them were killed in military operations”, Kojic claimed. Head of Srebrenica Municipality Mladen Grujicic stated that Serbs wish for establishment of an independent commission which would most probably send a different image of Srebrenica to the world”.

Plenkovic says has talked with Biden in general on Serbia’s EU negotiations (Hina)

Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said on Tuesday that he had talked with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden about Serbia’s EU membership negotiations in general and that the talks actually referred to how Croatia could assist southeastern European countries on their journey towards the EU and NATO.

After Serbia opened two and not three policy chapters in Brussels on Tuesday, Serbia’s Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic accused Croatia of being the sole country that opposed the opening of the Policy Chapter on education and culture. Vucic also claimed that on Tuesday afternoon Biden telephoned Croatia’s office holders to underscore the need to open the said policy chapter. In comment on Vucic’s claims, Plenkovic confirmed that he had talked with the U.S. Vice President and that Serbia’s membership talks had been considered in general. “No concrete mention of the blockade was made. We talked about the process of the accession negotiations and that in the context of those relations Croatia could offer its experience to help its neighbors,” Plenkovic told reporters. “Serbia is in the process of accession negotiations. There is a set of policy chapters, a set of criteria that need to be fulfilled. We think that Serbia is on the way to fulfilling them,” the Croatian premier said. Croatia expects progress in Serbia’s accession negotiations with the European Union to happen at the beginning of 2017, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said

Earlier on Tuesday, the White House reported about the telephone conversation between Plenkovic and Biden on the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans. The conversation took place on the day that Croatia blocked the opening of a policy chapter in Serbia’s EU accession negotiations.

Invitation to opposition remains valid (RTCG)

Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Government of Montenegro Srdjan Darmanovic said that the invitation of Prime Minister Dusko Markovic to the part of the opposition that supports Montenegro’s accession to EU and NATO remains valid. He added that the opposition boycott is a fact which cannot be ignored. ”We cannot ignore the fact that the opposition is outside parliament, that they are challenging the legitimacy of the elections and seeking new ones. However, on the other hand, all relevant international addresses, and above all the best placed ODIHR, assessed that the elections were fair and in accordance with the highest standards,” said Darmanovic. ”You will agree that this is highly original move to give the opposition such an opportunity, all with the aim to relax the political scene,” said Darmanovic.

SEC confirms VMRO-DPMNE is winner of the elections (Republika)

The State Election Commission has confirmed that VMRO-DPMNE is the winner of the elections in Macedonia. According to the calculations using the D’Hondt method, VMRO-DPMNE won 51 seats, while its coalition partner DUI won 10 seats. Thus, the ruling coalition in the country has kept majority in the new composition as well. SDSM won 49 seats, BESA won 5 seats, the Alliance for Albanians 3 seats and DPA 2 seats in the new parliament.

Zaev expects change in MP seats’ distribution (MIA)

SDSM leader Zoran Zaev said Tuesday the final results of the parliamentary elections were still to come and added the opposition coalition would file complaints to the State Election Commission (SEC). Zaev said at a press conference the data from the records coming from polling stations differed from the data released by SEC and voiced expectation that the number of MP seats in the sixth election district would be altered. “Since the preliminary unofficial results baffled citizens, I would like to stress that the final results are yet to come. If the numbers are corrected, SDSM has more MP seats in the sixth election district, thus bringing the seat ratio with the ruling coalition to 50:50”, added Zaev. SDSM would lodge complaints to the SEC due to noted irregularities, with the final results providing the real state of the MP seats’ distribution.

“I expect SEC to be transparent before the eyes of the entire nation”, said Zaev, expecting everyone to respect “the real will of the majority”. According to the SDSM leader, the ruling party and its leader should not form a government. “We urge all parties who got MP seats, except for VMRO-DPMNE, to not even think of violating the clear will by the majority of people in Macedonia, the will for change. Nikola Gruevski must not form a government in Macedonia. If Gruevski fails to form the government, everyone knows who will”, underlined Zaev.

BESA Movement, SDSM file complaints to SEC (MIA)

BESA Movement and SDSM on Tuesday filed eight and six complaints respectively to the State Election Commission (SEC) related to the election process, namely the voting, counting and verifying the results. The complaints of BESA Movement refer to the possible irregularities in the municipalities of Aracinovo, Tetovo, Lipkovo and Gazi Baba, SEC said in a press release.

VMRO-DPMNE: SDSM leader cannot decide who will form government; Victory of VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition was verified by all international institutions (Republika)

Opposition SDSM leader Zoran Zaev is not the one to decide who will form a government but citizens via expressing their free will, Vlatko Gjorcev, member of the VMRO-DPMNE Executive Committee, told a press conference on Tuesday.

“VMRO-DPMNE scored a crystal clear victory in terms of parliamentary seats, number of municipalities, election districts, votes” Gjorcev said. He notified that the electoral victory of VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition was verified by all international institutions – the EU, OSCE/ODIHR… Let’s extend congratulations in a European manner and end this scenario for destabilizing the country, he said.

Home of Kumanovo police chief appointed by the SDSM, raided after election fraud suspicions (MIA)

Police raided the home of Kumanovo police Stojance Velickovic on Tuesday evening, on suspicions of involvement in vote buying during the elections on Sunday. During the raid, a large group of SDSM party supporters surrounded the home and threatened the police, before eventually dispersing. The Interior Ministry informed that the officers seized official records from his home and announced more details about the charges during the day. Velickovic was appointed police chief in Kumanovo by the SDSM party, which managed the Interior Ministry during the election and got to appoint a number of police chiefs across the country. During the tense stand-off, at one point Velickovic called on the crowd of SDSM supporters to disperse, assuring them that he is not being arrested. Speaking to the media, Velickovic said that police looked through official records he had in his house. Kumanovo Mayor Zoran Damjanovski, also from SDSM, expressed his support to the police chief.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Serbia Furious at Croatian Block on EU Negotiations (BIRN, by Natalia Zaba, 13 December 2016)

Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic cut short a visit to Brussels and anti-Croatian posters appeared in Belgrade after Zagreb blocked the opening of a negotiating chapter in Serbia’s EU accession talks.

Protest posters were plastered on Belgrade supermarkets run by a Croatian company on Tuesday morning after media reported that Zagreb had blocked the opening of the latest negotiating chapter in Serbia’s EU accession talks and Serbian premier Vucic ended his visit to Brussels early. The posters, which were put up by unknown protesters on at least nine Idea supermarkets operated by Croaian company Konzum, featured the slogans: “Buy domestic” and “Do you have any idea where your money is going?” Media reported that Croatia on Friday blocked the opening of Chapter 26 in the EU negotiations – which covers education and culture – because of its concerns about the lack of progress in producing textbooks for pupils from Serbia’s Croat minority, among other issues. Vucic left Brussels on Monday after a meeting with EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who he urged to exert her influence on Croatia’s position. The Serbian premier had been due to attend a meeting of the EU Intergovernmental Conference on Tuesday, which was expected to approve the opening of three new accession chapters in Serbia’s application for membership. “Serbia was patient all along and was trying not to react, but from now on, we’ll talk differently,” Vucic told media.

Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic told media on Tuesday that Belgrade wants good relations with Zagreb, and insisted that contrary to Croatia’s objections, the Serbian law on minority rights conforms to the highest international standards. “Croatia is interrupting Serbia’s EU path because of unsolved bilateral issues. This is not the way cooperation should look,” Tomislav said.

Meanwhile Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic, after meeting his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Belgrade, said that Croatia’s intervention could sour Belgrade’s aspirations for EU membership. “If Croatia is the one who will decide whether Serbia will join the EU, I immediately feel somewhat less interested,” Dacic told Serbian state broadcaster RTS on Monday.

Croatian Foreign Minister Davor Ivo Stier argued however that Serbia had an obligation to improve its treatment of ethnic minorities. “There are things Serbia must implement along its EU path. Full protection of national minorities is one of those matters,” he was quoted as saying by news agency Tanjug.

Reuters has reported that Croats account for less than one per cent of Serbia’s population. The Serbian and Croatian languages are very similar and were part of a common language before the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. This not the first time that Serbia and Croatia have had disputes over Belgrade’s EU agenda. In April this year, the European Council working group pulled from its agenda debates on Serbia’s opening of accession chapters 23 and 24, dealing with the rule of law, the judiciary and human rights, after Croatia failed to give them a green light. After months of delay, chapters 23 and 24 were finally opened in July this year.

Croatia Unveils Military Monument at Prison Camp Site (BIRN, by Sven Milekic, 13 December 2016)

Croatian officials and veterans opened a monument to a military police battalion at the former Lora prison camp, where several Serbs were tortured and killed by battalion members in 1992.

Several hundred people including war veterans and politicians gathered on Tuesday in front of the Lora military base in the coastal city of Split to inaugurate a monument dedicated to the 72nd battalion of Croatia’s 1990s military police, some of whose members have been convicted of war crimes. On the 25th anniversary of the founding of the unit and in memory of 12 of its members who were killed during the 1990s war, the large monument in the shape of a giant letter ‘H’ has been installed next to the base, which was also the site of a wartime prison camp where several Serb civilians and soldiers were tortured and killed by members of the 72nd battalion.

Along with local politicians and representatives of the government, the president and parliament, members of various 1990s units were present, including the Knight Rafael Boban unit of the Croatian Defence Forces, which started as a paramilitary force and was later integrated into the Croatian Army. The Knight Rafael Boban unit has the Croatian World War II fascist slogan ‘Za dom spremni’ (‘Ready for the Home(land)’) on its officially registered coat of arms.

One of the main speakers at the event was the president of its veterans’ association, Zlatko Cipcic, who dedicated the opening of the monument to the members of the unit and all Croatian soldiers who died in the 1990s war. “This letter ‘H’ can only annoy the wicked and enemies of the Croatian state. The letter ‘H’ represents Hrvatska [Croatia], heroes and the hrabrost [courage] shown by our fighters,” Cipcic said. Cipcic also said that his thoughts went out to six former Bosnian Croat officers, awaiting final judgement before the Hague Tribunal for crimes committed in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He added that it was “incomprehensible that Tomislav Mercep, Emilio Bungur and Tomislav Duic are in our [Croatian] prisons”. Mercep, former assistant to the interior minister in the 1990s and the unofficial commander of a reserve police battalion, who was sentenced to five-and-a-half years in prison in June for war crimes against Serb civilians committed in 1991 and 1992, while Bungur and Duic are former members of battalion who were convicted for war crimes in their absence and are now undergoing a retrial.

Cipcic also took a swipe at anti-fascist activists who have criticised right-wing apologists for the WWII-era Nazi-allied regime in Croatia. “Hereby I am sending a message to so-called anti-fascists that the only anti-fascists in Croatia are the participants of the Homeland War [the name used in Croatia for the 1990s war] that fought against Greater Serbian fascism,” he said.

“Croatia is created on the foundations of anti-fascism, but the [anti-fascism] of the Homeland War,” Cipcic concluded, implicitly dismissing the anti-fascist struggle during World War II.

The mayor of Split, Ivo Baldasar spoke after Cipcic and said he agreed with the definition of Croatian anti-fascism. “Sure, I feel sorrow and regret for the victims; I am sure that somebody mentioned them [in a speech], I didn’t; it’s not my place to mention them. I am really sorry this happened, but you can’t criminalise the whole Homeland War,” Baldasar told journalists.

So far, two cases have been launched at county court in Split for war crimes committed against Serb civilians held at the Lora prison camp in 1992.

In the case dubbed ‘Lora 1’, six former military policemen have been convicted of involvement in torture which resulted in the deaths of two men. Two other defendants still on trial.

In the ‘Lora 2’ case, five former military policemen are accused of killing three prisoners.

All those put on trial were members of the 72nd battalion of the Croatian military police, which was honoured with the memorial on Tuesday. Another case known as ‘Lora 3’, which centres on alleged war crimes committed against Yugoslav People’s Army prisoners, mostly Montenegrins, is still being investigated by the Croatian state attorney’s office.

Macedonia Faces Uncertainty over New Government (BIRN, 14 December 2016)

The formation of a new Macedonian government will be a daunting task, observers said after Sunday’s elections ended with a near-tie between the ruling party and the opposition.

Political observers suggest that after the Sunday’s polls almost ended in a dead heat, a renewal of the past government coalition between the main ruling VMRO DPMNE and its junior ethnic Albanian partner, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI – although technically possible – is very unlikely. On the other hand they see little chance that the main opposition Social Democrats, SDSM could gather all Macedonia’s ethnic Albanian parties under one roof in a possible government of their own. Both of these options lead to a conclusion that the country may have to repeat the elections in near future to resolve the current gridlock. The next opportunity is in May, along with the local elections.

All options look like ‘mission impossible’

At a press conference on Monday, the State Electoral Commission, DIK said that the main ruling VMRO DPMNE party won 51 seats in the 120-seat parliament while the main opposition Social Democrats won 49 seats. The junior ruling Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, has won 10 seats. The Albanian opposition BESA party has won five seats, the opposition Alliance for Albanians has won three seats, while the opposition Democratic Party of Albanians will get two MPs. The minimum number of MPs needed to form a new government is 61, which the VMRO DPMNE and DUI currently have. However, observers say that the DUI, which suffered a tremendous blow at Sunday’s voting, winning only half of the votes compared to the last elections in 2014, will now have a very hard time convincing its members to again join the VMRO DPMNE. “The DUI is vulnerable right now after this political knockdown.  We can expect some internal turmoil there. Some information say that some of its MPs and members will strongly oppose the idea for a renewed coalition with VMRO,” political analyst and former MP Ismet Ramadani said.Ramadani said that he sees all current options for forming a government as ‘mission impossible’. A major reason for the DUI’s downfall is attributed to the party’s insistence on staying in power over the last eight years with the centre-right VMRO DPMNE whose leader Nikola Gruevski, in the eyes of most Albanians, is seen as a promoter of anti-Albanian policies.

“It will be very hard to renew this coalition because the DUI at these elections received a message from its voters that they are very unhappy from the policies this party had implemented while in coalition with the VMRO DPMNE,” said political analyst Mitko Gadzoski. Analysts say that the DUI’s decision will depend much on their calculations for the forthcoming local elections in May. They say that should the DUI enter the government despite Albanians’ discontent, their downfall at the local polls is likely to continue. Observers suggest that Gruevski, who has been accused of being corrupt and an ethnic Macedonian nationalist, has even less hope of attracting other opposition Albanian parties, which have strongly criticised him during the election campaign.

Insurmountable rifts within the Albanian bloc

The big rift between the DUI and the other three Albanian opposition parties spells trouble for a potential government attempted by the opposition leader Zoran Zaev, according to observers.

Observers say that while in theory, the SDSM could attempt to attract to a coalition all the Albanian parties in parliament, which would result in a total of 69 MPs, it is practically impossible to convince BESA and the other smaller parties to enter an alliance including the DUI, which they hold responsible for its subordination to Gruevski and for cultivating corruption. BESA already stated on Monday that it has no intention of sharing power with the DUI, nor “with any politicians which are currently being investigated for [high level] crimes by the Special Prosecution.” The opposition Democratic Party of Albanians’ leader Menduh Thaci said that for him, BESA was the moral winner at the elections and he would concede the party’s two MPs to BESA so that it can have a better negotiating position during possible talks for a new government. Whatever the future government, observers agree that it will not be a long-term solution. “The most probable thing that will happen in the period to come is [the formation of] a government that will not be political. It may be a technical government, it may be a wide coalition [supported by all parties] that will be tasked with preparing new elections, political analyst Nikola Dujovski told 24 News TV. According to the constitution, the new parliament should be established by the end of this month at the latest. The deadline for forming a government is February 16.

Macedonia’s elections: how the EU continues to fail the Western Balkans (Open Democracy, by Timothy Less, Roland Gjoni, 13 December 2016)

It may seem like nothing has changed in Macedonia after Sunday’s elections, but look closer and you will see the cracks forming inside the country.

There is no particular reason why outsiders should pay much attention to early elections in a small, impoverished Balkan state like Macedonia, especially when the story is that nothing much has changed. But the outcome of yesterday’s elections tells an important truth about the strategic limbo which a crisis-stricken EU has created in the Western Balkans. Worse, as Brussels’ influence declines, the consequences of the election could turn Macedonia into a geopolitical battleground which extends beyond the country’s borders.

More of the same

With the votes now counted, the ruling Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation (VMRO-DPMNE), has won its fifth parliamentary election in a row with 51 seats in Macedonia’s 123-member parliament. Meanwhile, within Macedonia’s large Albanian community, the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) has again emerged as the largest party, with ten of the 20 seats that have gone to Albanian parties, its sixth consecutive parliamentary election victory. Two diaspora seats have not been allocated due to low turnout.

After ten years of this ethnic duopoly, the latest results should not be remarkable. The difference this time, however, is that elections were preceded by the most serious political scandal in Macedonia’s short history as a state. This broke last year when the opposition Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDSM) leaked wiretapped recordings that apparently revealed evidence of espionage, corruption, criminality, electoral fraud and even the cover up of murder by the governing parties.

That the two should still win out against this damning backdrop says much about the state of Macedonian politics.

Most significantly, it speaks of the ruling parties’ ability to sustain a large support base by colonising the state and exploiting the local patronage system to reward allies and destroy opponents. Not only have the parties brought an array of institutions such as the civil service, the judiciary, prosecutor and the police under their direct control by reserving employment for party activists. But they have also extended their influence deep into the notionally private sector, forcing businesses to pay tribute and the media to pay homage to keep a predatory state at bay.

None of this is surprising for those familiar with the old Yugoslavia. What is remarkable is only that Macedonia has managed to preserve the essential dynamics of the communist system, with its all-pervasive ruling party, so far into the twenty-first century.

European culpability

Although domestic factors play a part, primary responsibility for this situation lies with the EU, which has kept Macedonia at arm’s length for much of the last decade, allowing VMRO-DPMNE and DUI to capture the Macedonian state.

Initially, the obstacle was Macedonia’s esoteric name dispute with Greece, which froze the country’s incipient accession to the EU and NATO. Subsequently, the crisis in the EU has deadlocked the entire enlargement process, destroying whatever residual hope Macedonia might have had for joining the union.

In the background to this, some European governments have been happy to tolerate their capture of the state if government keeps migrants out and lets foreign investors in.

The upshot is that the EU has been singularly unable to promote liberal reform inside Macedonia. VMRO-DPMNE and DUI have had little reason to co-operate with Brussels’ demands to open up the political system and instead have enjoyed free rein to pursue their interests, unencumbered by external pressure.

The Albanian factor

This situation would be bearable for the rest of Europe if the effects of its actions could be contained within Macedonia’s borders Unfortunately, that may not be the case because, behind the façade of apparent stasis, a perfect storm is now brewing.

The key actor in Macedonia’s drama is the large Albanian minority which is deeply disaffected; discriminated by a political system which relegates them to second-class status in a state run in the interests of Macedonians.

For years, Albanians parked their grievances on the assumption that their political representatives, former paramilitaries from a short-lived struggle for Albanian rights back in 2001, had the interests of their community at heart. Albanians have also put their faith in Macedonia’s eventual arrival in the sunlit uplands of the European Union.

However, first EU enlargement was suspended. Then, with the wiretapping scandal, it became clear that DUI was far more concerned with making money by corrupt means than standing up for Albanian rights.

As a result, a wave of Albanian anger has been unleashed, manifest in street protests, defections from DUI and new insurgent parties. Two of these polled well in yesterday’s elections on a platform of greater rights and territorial autonomy including, potentially, the federalisation of the Macedonian state – but not, apparently, enough to break into the captured political institutions.

This is highly significant. If enough Albanians conclude that the formal means to realise political change are blocked, there is a real risk that some will once again resort to violent agitation, as they did when their patience last snapped, back in 2001.

Even if they do break the blockade on the institutions, matters will not rest. Having fallen one seat short of a majority, it is possible that VMRO and DUI fail to form a government, allowing SDSM, which has just won 49 seats, to form a coalition involving every other party – perhaps even DUI too, if it decided to recalculate its interests.

But while this would end the current political duopoly, it would also bring the Albanian question to a head. To woo Albanian voters ahead of the ballot, SDSM committed to a new deal for Albanians, which it would be under pressure to honour, especially from the insurgent Albanian parties which would join the coalition. Failure by SDSM to meet its promises would cause bitter disappointment and compel some Albanians to resort to violence.

The Macedonian vortex

This is where the EU’s neglect of Macedonia would become an encouragement to others to fill the void that Brussels has vacated. Turkey for one is keen to fill the emerging political vacuum. For years, it has invested energy in winning the hearts and minds of disaffected Muslims as an alternative to the West and a bulwark against Russia.

To complicate matters further, if Macedonia’s Albanians press their demands for a new deal, then VMRO-DPMNE is likely to rally Macedonians in opposition to this, supported by Russia which, like Turkey, views Macedonia as an open front on which it can advance.

For the moment, Russia and Turkey may be allies but their temporary marriage of convenience is unlikely to survive the end of Islamic State and the question of who rules Syria. In such circumstances, Macedonia could easily become a proxy for a new contest for influence in the Middle East, this time in the EU’s backyard.

In the meantime, regional states are unlikely to stand idly by and let Turkey and Russia decide the fate of Macedonia. Too much is at stake. As its hopes of joining the EU evaporate, Albania is already starting to focus on the plight of Albanians in the region – and will do so even more if they call on Tirana for help. The same goes for Kosovo. Meanwhile Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece – all concerned neighbours of Macedonia – are carefully monitoring developments.

The next phase

All this leads to a worrying conclusion. Not only is Macedonia’s journey from a relatively stable and Western-orientated multi-ethnic democracy to a captured semi-autocracy a graphic testament to the failings of the EU project. But with the EU unable to exert any meaningful influence in the Balkans, the internal stability of the country is becoming increasingly precarious.

Sunday’s election is probably not the end of the political crisis as the EU intended. More likely, it is the beginning of a new and more dangerous phase which could spread far beyond Macedonia’s borders.

Timothy Less is the Director of the Nova Europa political risk agency and a former British diplomat in Macedonia.

Roland Gjoni is a researcher on ethnic conflict and nationalism.

Defence Urges UN Court to Acquit Ratko Mladic (BIRN, by Radosa Milutinovic, 13 December 2016)

On the final day of closing arguments at Ratko Mladic’s trial in The Hague, defence lawyers urged the UN court to acquit the former Bosnian Serb Army commander of war crimes and genocide.

On the final day of closing arguments at Mladic’s trial in The Hague, his defence lawyer Dragan Ivetic told the court that “the only fair and just outcome is an acquittal due to the fact the prosecution has failed to meet its burden of proof”. Mladic is accused of the genocide of Bosniaks from Srebrenica in 1995, the persecution of Bosniaks and Croats throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina, which allegedly reached the scale of genocide in several other municipalities in 1992, terrorising the population of Sarajevo during the 44-month siege of the Bosnian capital, and taking UN peacekeepers hostage.

Ivetic concentrated his final remarks on the Srebrenica genocide charge, insisting that Mladic could not be found responsible for the executions of more than 7,000 Bosniaks after Bosnian Serb forces took over the enclave. “The defence does not dispute that some men and boys were tragically killed in acts of personal vengeance in Srebrenica, but those murders have nothing with any commander or the intentions of Mladic,” he said. He insisted that the real truth about Srebrenica will never be known, but that the perpetrators of crimes were not acting under Mladic’s command, but “avengers”. Prosecutors have demanded a life sentence for Mladic. Earlier on Tuesday, the defence refuted the charge that Ratko Mladic’s troops terrorised the population of Sarajevo during the 1992-95 siege of the city. Mladic’s lawyer Ivetic argued that the idea that Bosnian Serb forces operated a reign of terror was fabricated by the Bosniak authorities to win international sympathy.

He quoted a report from the UN peacekeeping force UNPROFOR report which said that “the shelling has been significantly reduced… but the authorities continue creating a myth that the city is bombed”. Ivetic claimed that perpetuating the ‘myth’ was so important that the Bosniak side “shelled and sniped at its own people”. Contrary to the accusations, the Bosnian Serb Army was “careful not to attack civilians”, he insisted. He said that the Bosnian Army had an obligation to “separate civilians from military facilities”, but did not do that, and indeed prohibited civilians from leaving the city. Ivetic did not deny that “a large number of grenades” were fired at Sarajevo, but argued that Bosnian Serb Forces responded to Bosnian Army attacks from inside the city proportionally. “A complete cessation of hostilities in Sarajevo was the main military goal,” he said. Mladic is accused of terrorising the population of Sarajevo during the 44-month siege of the Bosnian capital, the genocide of Bosniaks from Srebrenica in 1995, the persecution of Bosniaks and Croats throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina, which allegedly reached the scale of genocide in several other municipalities in 1992, and taking UN peacekeepers hostage. The defence also argued that Fadila Tarcin, the only surviving witness presented by the Hague Tribunal’s prosecution at the trial, was severely wounded by a grenade fired by Bosniak leader Alija Izetbegovic’s forces and not the army under Mladic’s command. “It seems as if the prosecution tries to conceal the crimes committed by Izetbegovic’s forces,” Ivetic said. The defence lawyer accused Izetbegovic of being responsible for the outbreak of the war in Sarajevo, reminding the court that the Bosniak leader once said that he was “ready to sacrifice peace for a sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina”. According to Ivetic, Izetbegovic’s forces used the presence of civilians in the capital to protect themselves, hiding their command premises in shops and post offices, opening workshops for weapons repair in residential buildings and basements and training recruits in elementary school buildings. Ivetic also said there was no joint criminal enterprise aimed at terrorising the city’s population. He insisted that the prosecution’s allegation that Mladic deprived civilians in Sarajevo of humanitarian aid, water, electricity and gas was “a conspiracy theory”. On Thursday, Mladic’s defence and Hague Tribunal prosecutors will be given time to comment on the closing remarks made by the other side. The first-instance-verdict is expected in November 2017.