LOCAL PRESS
Dacic: Kosovo not a UN member so it cannot sue Serbia (Beta/RTS)
Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic accused Kosovo President Hashim Tachi of continued provocation on 5 April, because of his statement about Kosovo intending to sue Serbia for genocide, adding that it was not possible because Kosovo was not a UN member. “Hashim Tachi is continuing with provocation. After experiencing a debacle with his idea about forming the so-called Army of Kosovo and after the draft law was withdrawn under pressure from the international community, Tachi immediately tried to shift the domestic public’s attention onto another subject – the genocide lawsuit against Serbia. Tachi knows that it will be to no avail, because Kosovo is not a UN member and has no right to sue before the International Court of Justice in The Hague,” Dacic said in a statement. The statement also reads that it is well known that Serbia did not commit any genocide in Kosovo and that it was the KLA that committed genocide against the Serbian people. “The proof of this is the fact that there are fewer Serbs in Kosovo than there were before 1999. After all, not even the Hague tribunal and its prosecution ever accused Serbia of genocide. Instead, a special court for the crimes of the KLA has been formed. So the criminals from the KLA will stand trial, not Serbia,” Dacic stated.
Dacic: Serbia-Spain relations at high level (Beta)
At a centennial ceremony marking the establishment of diplomatic relations between Serbia and Spain, held at the Archive of Serbia, Dacic said the two nations had very good and friendly relations and that they had numerous forms of cooperation, mutual respect and common values connecting them, the Foreign Ministry said in a press release. The Serbian minister thanked Spain for not recognizing an independent Kosovo, stating that, through the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, Serbia remained committed to a just and lasting solution which would contribute to stability and security in the region.
Drecun: New game by Pristina (B92)
Pristina continues to play a game regarding the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO) and doesn’t adhere to the agreed in Brussels, the Chairman of the Serbian parliamentary Committee for Kosovo and Metohija Milovan Drecun told B92. “Everything they need to do is to adopt the decree on the formation of the ZSO, after which the Serb management team would present the statute to Brussels,” says Drecun.
“Tachi wishes to radicalize the Albanians. The indictment for genocide against Serbia is pointless, but we will prove before the Special Court the genocidal intention of the KLA. We will prove that it existed, but also that the genocidal plan against the Serbs, Roma and other non-Albanians in Kosovo is still being implemented,” says Drecun. He says that the working group is working on that case and that a ‘good meeting’ was recently held in the Security Information Agency (BIA) headquarters, where they were presented “the data base on the crimes”. Drecun says that underway is the first attempts to unite in one place all data on the crimes, which will alleviate the processing of responsible.
Asked about the Serb List and the controversial return of Jablanovic at its helm, Drecun responds: “Rational behavior of every Serb representative is not to act in isolation, but in accordance with other MPs and firm agreements with the Belgrade authorities. I think that nobody will be ready to enter a risk and act against Serbia’s interests.”
Jablanovic again heads Serb List (Politika)
Former state secretary in the Serbian Labor Ministry and former Kosovo minister for communities and returns Aleksandar Jablanovic is again the head of the Serb List that has 11 MPs in the Kosovo Assembly. He replaced Slavko Simic who was only the acting head of the Serb List, as Leposavic Mayor Dragan Jablanovic confirmed to Politika. “Aleksandar Jablanovic has never left the post of the Serb List head, and Simic was only the acting head, and during this time, he managed to dismiss certain personnel, while he was also preparing a new ‘cleansing’ of individuals for whom he had already found replacements,” Mayor Jablanovic told Politika, noting that yesterday was the first working day in Pristina for the Serb List Head.
Vulin not informed about replacement at helm of Serb List (Beta)
Asked whether Jablanovic is heading the Serb List, Serbian Labor Minister Aleksandar Vulin said that he saw this news and that MPs of the Movement of Socialists (PS) will always be in the caucus that is supported by the Serbian government. “What the Serbian government says who will be at the helm of the Serb List, that person will head this list. For me this is the only truth and this is the only truth for the MPs of the Movement of Socialists,” said Vulin, who is the leader of the Movement of Socialists.
Stojanovic: Jablanovic doesn’t have support of Serb List (RTS)
Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister from the Serb List Branimir Stojanovic tells RTS that Jablanovic doesn’t have the support of Serb representatives. Serb List MPs will meet in Pristina at an extraordinary meeting in order to discuss and take the stand regarding the turn at the helm of that list. “Jablanovic is not and will not be the head of the Serb List. This shows that he accepted to be an instrument in the hands of Kosovo politicians and that he is working against Serb interests,” Stojanovic told the RTS morning news. The post of the head of the Serb List is more formal and, apart from managing and delegating in electoral boards, it doesn’t have great significance. “But it does have symbolic significance. There are around 300.000 Euros that are paid annually for the activities of MPs and it is obviously interesting as a prize for individuals. What is written in some register doesn’t mean it has the support of the Serbs and Jablanovic doesn’t have this support,” says Stojanovic.
Chepurin: Vucic received mandate to continue his policy (RTS)
Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic received yesterday Russian Ambassador to Serbia Aleksandr Chepurin. Ambassador Chepurin, along with personally congratulating Prime Minister Vucic on his victory at the presidential election, handed him letters of congratulations from President and Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev respectively. The Russian Ambassador said that the victory in the presidential election is a sign that voters in Serbia positively assessed the policy of Prime Minister Vucic and gave him a mandate to continue this policy in order to ensure the country’s peace, security and economic progress. Ambassador Chepurin said that Russia will continue to develop the overall relations with Serbia in the mutual interest. Vucic confirmed the participation of the Serbian delegation at the Saint Petersburg forum in June this year at the highest level, saying that this will be an opportunity to deepen military-technical, industrial, agricultural and scientific cooperation between the two countries.
On the occasion of the terrorist attack in Saint Petersburg, Vucic extended his deepest condolences once more to Chepurin, the state leadership and the people of the Russian Federation, with the belief that the Russian state will know how to deal with security challenges.
Improving overall strategic partnership between China, Serbia (RTS)
Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic received today Chinese Ambassador to Serbia Li Manchang, who congratulated him on his victory in the presidential election in Serbia and conveyed cordial greetings of the Chinese state leadership and handed him a congratulatory message from Chinese President Xi Jinping. The message of the Chinese President says, among other things: “Serbia is a great friend and an important partner of China. At present, relations between China and Serbia are developing strongly and have a great future. I attach great attention to Sino-Serbian relations and highly appreciate your important contribution to the advancement of friendly cooperation between the two countries. I am willing to make efforts with you for the constant improvement of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Serbia to a higher level in order to increase the welfare of the two peoples. I expect to meet you in May this year in Beijing, during the Belt and Road Forum,” reads the congratulatory message of the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping. Vucic accepted the invitation with deep gratitude, noting that this will be an opportunity to agree new projects with Chinese friends and strengthen economic and other cooperation, to which the establishment of direct flights between Serbia and China would contribute the most. Vucic said that Serbian citizens increasingly understand the importance of cooperation with China and support the close and friendly relations between the two countries, whose development will be one of his priorities as president of the country.
Dikovic, Benko meet in Hajdukovo (Beta)
The chief of the general staff of the Army of Serbia, Ljubisa Dikovic, met in Hajdukovo, near Subotica, with the Hungarian chief of general staff, Tibor Benko, and discussed the current security situation in the region and the security challenges caused by the migrant crisis, the Defense Ministry has stated. According to the statement, the two generals also discussed the development of bilateral military cooperation. They particularly considered the joint participation in the multinational UN operation in Cyprus, the joint exercises of the two militaries and other exercises in which the armed forces of Hungary and Serbia are participating.
RIK announces repeat voting after which it will announce final results (RTV/RTS)
The Republic Election Commission (RIK) ordered repeat presidential election at eight polling stations where it had annulled the voting.The repeat elections are scheduled to take place on April 11 at polling stations in Kraljevo, Pancevo, Vrsac, Vrbas, Topola, Zrenjanin, Backa Palanka and the Belgrade municipality of Zvezdara. RIK will announce the final results 96 hours after the polling stations close on 11 April.
List with students’ demands (Danas/Beta)
On third day of the protest dubbed “Protest against the Dictatorship” concrete political demands appeared, although it is still not clear who have organized the protests. Students of the University of Novi Sad suggested and their Belgrade colleagues accepted that the list of demands included
-dismissal of members of the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) for contempt of the Constitutional Court decision on voting in Kosovo,
-replacement of the Regulatory Authority of Electronic Media (REM) members for failing to react to hundreds complaints,
-replacement of parliament speaker Maja Gojkovic due to blockage of the work of the parliament.
-dismissal of the editor-in-chief of news office of the public broadcasting services – Radio and
Television of Serbia (RTS) and Radio and Television of Vojvodina (RTV) – because of what they said, biased reporting and unequal representation of candidates in the election campaign.
Around 1,000 students and mostly young people assembled in downtown Novi Sad to protest and seek a fair and free election and the stepping down of the entire cabinet, which they accused of trying to stage incidents. Belgraders also took to the streets for the third night in a row to express their protest. Before the rally, a group of protesters began to repair a billboard in front of the parliament, showing the pictures and names of civilians and security forces members killed or kidnapped in Kosovo, knocked down on the first evening of the protest.
REGIONAL PRESS
B&H HoR’s majority votes against adoption of amendments to Law on Excise Duties in urgent procedure (N1/TV1/RTRS)
The House of Representatives (HoR) of the Parliament of B&H held a session in Sarajevo on Wednesday, at which it failed to discuss the Law on Excise Duties in urgent procedure, which stipulate increase of excise duties on fuel and oil and whose adoption is among conditions for continuation of the arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Thus, the law was sent back to regular parliamentary procedure. B&H HoR Stasa Kosarac pointed out that the Wednesday vote on the set of laws under the Reform Agenda showed that the majority at the state level does not exist, adding that Chairman of B&H CoM Denis Zvizdic should resign. Head of SDA Caucus in B&H HoR Amir Fazlic stressed that this party regrets the fact that the IMF arrangement and implementation of a number of infrastructural projects in B&H has been jeopardized. SDA MP in B&H HoR Senad Sepic argued that it would be absurd to vote in favor of additional burdens without developing a mechanism of protection first. Head of SDS Caucus in B&H HoR Aleksandra Pandurevic welcomed the fact that the parliamentary majority in the Parliament of B&H opposed SNSD and foreigners, who according to her, exerted pressure on MPs to pass this law. Deputy Head of SBB B&H Caucus in B&H Parliament Mirsad Isakovic said that B&H cannot survive without IMF’s loan at this moment. President of Republika Srpska (RS) and leader of SNSD Milorad Dodik told that there is nothing more that B&H can do at the moment, adding that the country will have to continue negotiations with the IMF in the forthcoming two years in order to obtain the loan arrangement. According to Dodik, due to the inappropriate behavior of representatives of the RS in the joint institutions, the healthcare and agricultural sector will face consequences and construction of roads and highways will be negatively affected. Furthermore, the President of the RS criticized the parties gathered around the Alliance for Changes (SzP) coalition, noting that they are the culprit for the current difficult situation, reminding that they were hiding behind the story about alleged protection of agricultural producers. UK Ambassador Edward Ferguson said that the vote against the excise duties is a vote against the Reform Agenda and European road. He also warned that hundreds of millions for new roads and jobs would be jeopardized.
Johnson meets Zvizdic, Crnadak, affirms UK’s support on reform path (N1)
UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Boris Johnson arrived for an official two-day visit to Sarajevo on Wednesday. On that occasion, Johnson held meetings with Prime Minister of Republika Srpska (RS) Zeljka Cvijanovic, Minister of Foreign Affairs of B&H Igor Crnadak and Chairman of the Council of Ministers of B&H Denis Zvizdic. The Foreign Secretary was paying a visit to Sarajevo in order to reiterate the UK’s strong support to B&H and to urge the country’s political leaders to put aside ethnic divisions and implement urgent socio-economic reforms to promote prosperity for all its citizens. Addressing reporters at a press conference in Sarajevo after the meetings, Johnson underlined that the UK is leaving the EU, but not Europe and B&H. According to him, the UK is committed to playing an active and supportive role in B&H. The UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs also emphasized that it is important to do everything to support and to encourage B&H to move even faster on the path of economic reforms. On the other hand, Minister Crnadak pointed out that cooperation between B&H and the UK continues to grow. “As he (Johnson) said, the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union, but the United Kingdom is not leaving Europe. The United Kingdom remains a very important partner for us and it remains a friendly country for us with which we continue to develop and improve relations. As one of the most influential countries, both in Europe and in the world, the United Kingdom remains among our priorities when it comes to foreign policy, cooperation and further development of relations,” Crnadak underlined.
Poll: HDZ losing support, SDP and MOST gaining (Hina)
The Agrokor case has still not had a significant impact on government’s popularity. The regular monthly poll of the Promocija Plus agency on social and political preferences “CRO Demoskop” was conducted in the period between 1 and 3 April. As much as 71.6 percent of respondents said that the Agrokor case was the most important topic in the last month. It seems that the issue has not had a substantial impact on government’s popularity, reports HRT on April 5, 2017.
Among political parties, the first place belongs to HDZ which is the choice of 31.3 percent of respondents (32.8 percent in March). However, this is the largest monthly decline in electoral support for the ruling party since the beginning of this term. At the same time, SDP has stopped its negative trend and is now supported by 22.8 percent of voters (21.6 percent in March). MOST is third with 9.6 percent (8 percent in March), followed by Zivi Zid (7.1 percent), HNS (3.6 percent), HSS (2 percent), and smaller parties.
Asked who the most positive Croatian politician is, the plurality of respondents chose Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic (21.8 percent). Second place was won by “no one” (14.6 percent), followed by President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic (10.7 percent), HNS candidate for Zagreb Mayor Anka Mrak Taritas (9.7 percent), SDP president Davor Bernardic (5.2 percent), and Speaker of Parliament Bozo Petrov (4.5 percent).
About 30.5 percent of respondents think that Croatia is moving in the right direction, while 60.8 percent say that country is on the wrong track. The HDZ voters are mostly optimistic (69.4 percent), much more so than MOST voters (42.1 percent).
The level of support for the policies and activities of the government in the sixth month of its term stands at 46.2 percent. In comparison, Prime Minister Milanovic’s government had the support of 44.7 percent of respondents at the same point in its term.
On the 1-5 scale, in this month’s poll Andrej Plenkovic’s government received an average mark of 2.54 (2.56 in March). President Grabar-Kitarovic received 3.0 (same as in March). The average mark for Parliament is 2.31 (2.25 in March).
Analysts: Vucic’s victory will not change relations between Montenegro and Serbia (Pobjeda)
The fact that current Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has been elected president of the country will not change relations between Montenegro and Serbia, Serbian analysts Zoran Stojiljkovic and Dusan Janjic told Pobjeda newspaper. Stoiljkovic said that he did not expect any problems in the future relations between Serbia and Montenegro. “I do not expect provocations in these relations, at least when it comes to Serbia. Good neighborly relations and regional cooperation are in the common interest of all the countries in the region, despite differences in some elements of their policies, such as NATO integration. I do not see what could be Serbia’s problems in relations with Montenegro,” said Stojiljkovic. He said that he expected Vucic would propose to someone “who has the capacity of an expert” to be Serbian Prime Minister and that the decision would “stay in Vucic hands”. “We should not think that Vucic will leave it to anyone else. It will be a sort of alpha and omega for relations in the region, including Montenegro. So, I do not expect that the future Prime Minister, even if he was Dacic, would change anything in the relations between the two countries,” said Stojiljkovic. Dusan Janjic expects Vucic to continue current personal communication with Montenegro. “I expect that the current personal involvement in improving relations between Serbia and Montenegro to get a new level. The President is extremely important in that communication. Nikolic participated in it as much as he had to. I expect that Vucic will be more committed to improving good relations between Serbia and Montenegro than Nikolic was,” said Janjic. However, he believes certain problems might arise after Montenegro’s accession to NATO. “It is absolutely clear that in the policies, primarily those run by executive authorities, lies the problem in relations between Serbia and Montenegro. As prime minister, Vucic made those relations better than they had been before, but in recent months there were ‘stalemates’ because of NATO. Montenegro will enter NATO soon, and Vucic will be under even stronger pressure not to go to the alliance, which will indirectly have to reflect on that part of the communication between the two countries,” said Janjic. According to him, it is in the interest of foreign powers, especially Russia, to prevent NATO expanding to the Balkans. “It will be a largely taboo subject for Vucic. Whenever he cooperates with Montenegro, he will have to solve the issue and have in mind that Montenegro is a full member of NATO,” said Janjic. According to him, whoever is Prime Minister, he/she will have to align his policy with Vucic’s. “You do not have anyone in the Serbian government who was directly against Montenegro or its authorities, or someone who fiercely supported the opposition that was on the streets. However, I cannot imagine that someone may be elected Prime Minister without being approved by Moscow. Again, the PM will have the same problem as Vucic,” said Janjic.
Government is preparing law on protocol ratification (Pobjeda)
Montenegrin government started preparing the law on NATO accession protocol ratification, Pobjeda daily learns. According to a newspaper’s source close to the government the draft law would be presented in one of the forthcoming cabinet meetings and then forwarded to Parliament for adoption. The draft law may be discussed on the cabinet meeting scheduled for 13 April. According to the Rules of Procedure, the government schedules the Parliament’s session at which the protocol ratification will be discussed. Prime Minister Dusko Markovic said during his meeting with his Albanian colleague Edi Rama that Montenegrin parliament would ratify the protocol before the NATO summit in May. Montenegrin Constitution and Parliament’s Rules of Procedure stipulate that international agreements such as NATO Accession Protocol shall be confirmed by law. “The draft law on ratification of international treaties must be explained. The explanation includes the reasons why the ratification of an international treaty has been proposed and evaluation of needed financial assets, if an international agreement creates liabilities for the budget of Montenegro,” the Rules of Procedure reads.
Montenegro was invited to join NATO at the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in 2015. After the US protocol ratification, the only NATO member country still to ratify it is Spain. In addition, it is necessary to complete the full procedure in the Netherlands.
Under the Constitution of Montenegro, the ratification of international treaties requires a simple majority of MPs present in the session, which actually means that theoretically NATO accession protocol may be ratified by 22 MPs. In addition to the ruling coalition, four SDP MPs announced they would also support the protocol ratification, so that the document is expected to be ratified with a majority of 46 MPs.
EP mediators again urge for formation of new Macedonia’s government without delay (MIA)
MEPs Eduard Kukan, Knut Fleckenstein and Ivo Vajgl, EP mediators for the 15 July 2015 Przino Agreement, met with Foreign Minister Nikola Poposki before the Wednesday’s plenary debate in Strasbourg on Macedonia and issued a statement, saying they can see no justification for the delaying tactics being used in the Parliament that hinder the appointment of a new Speaker and the formation of a government without further delay. “As Members of the European Parliament that have supported all efforts to overcome the current crisis and that have worked hard to support the European perspective for the Macedonian people, it is with deep concern that we see the crisis being unduly prolonged with growing consequences for the country, including the worsening of inter-ethnic relations. We have already seen the vote on the 2016 Country Report being postponed twice as a direct consequence of the uncertainty in the country and tonight in the plenary of the European Parliament we will debate this situation. Despite this we still strongly believe that the situation in the country can improve by pursuing a democratic course and, as a result, the political crises can be overcome,” reads the statement.
Poposki: Restoring of EU prospect necessary for settling Macedonia’s political crisis (MIA)
The lack of clear prospect for joining the European Union is one of the reasons for the deep political crisis in Macedonia, Vice-Premier and Foreign Minister Nikola Poposki said Wednesday in Strasbourg to the Joint Macedonia – EU Parliamentary Committee.
Yesterday’s session of the Joint Macedonia – EU Parliamentary Committee, chaired by MEP Alojz Peterle, was also attended by EP Rapporteur for Macedonia Ivo Vajgl and representatives of the European Commission. The session tackled the political developments in Macedonia and the country’s EU-integration process, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a press release. “The solutions we should seek in the future are also related to restoring the credibility and opening the negotiations on Macedonia’s future EU membership. Otherwise, it would be very difficult to surpass the country’s present challenges. Rules of the game – on election of Parliament Speaker, government formation and the election process – must be set for a sustainable solution to the political crisis. Along with this homework the EU should finally make the membership status attainable for Macedonia,” Poposki said. On the session’s sidelines, Poposki held talks with several MEPs and the Council of Europe Secretary General, Thorbjorn Jagland, the press release reads.
Almost all of SDSM MPs left parliament session (Meta)
Most of the MPs from SDSM and their coalition left the eighth continuation of the constitutive session of parliament, because, as they put it, they talk about everything but the agenda. At the session, only a few MPs from SDSM’s 49 remained, including party leader, Zoran Zaev. Aleksandar Kiracovski, an MP for SDSM announced the walkout and said that what’s going on in Parliament is a joke and announced that SDSM MPs will stop addressing Parliament. “I declare that my fellow MPs and I will give up addressing Parliament, but we will point out any procedural objections. Eight working days have passed, yet nothing constructive has been done. We are just wasting the time and money of the people. Trajko Veljanoski is responsible for this. If he worked in accordance with the rules of procedure, by now we would have selected a Commission for Elections and Appointments, we would have chosen a Parliament Speaker and we would have debated the new government” said Kiracovski. MPs from VMRO-DPMNE made their remarks and counter remarks concerning the platform of the Albanian parties and the preservation of the Macedonian language.
Political crisis in Albania, everyone prepared for a solution, no concrete steps (ATA)
Political crisis in Albania, everyone prepared for a solution, no concrete steps in Albania, the political crisis continues with the same intensity and in the recent hours, there have been repeated declarations suggesting readiness for dialogue and for a solution. However, none of the sides, Socialist Party led by PM Rama and opposition leader Lulzim Basha, don’t seem to have a will to give way to a solution to the crisis. At this point, a new idea has been launched for the solution of the crisis by Rama’s ally in the governing coalition, Socialist Movement for Integration. Its leader, Ilir Meta, announced the decision to sacrifice his mandate and those of the ministers with the aim of finding a solution to the crisis. According to SMI, the political situation is very tense. The electoral reform and judicial reform have come to a standstill, while there’s an evident drop of public confidence on politics and institutions. The political, aggressive, provocative and conflictual situation is dominating the current political developments. Under these circumstances, Mr. Meta says that urgent dialogue and political solution is imperative.
“Any delay leads the country to unknown, uncontrolled and unpredictable situations”, Meta warns. Meta is requesting for negotiations to take place for a so called “government of confidence”, explaining that this must be an acceptable government by all political sides. Meanwhile, Meta warns that SMI will not participate in the elections if the leader of SP doesn’t show “maximum responsibility and political will to guarantee free and fair elections and offer all the necessary guarantees for the opposition, in order for it to be part of the electoral process. Otherwise, according to Meta, “SMI cannot be part of an electoral farce”. Rama’s reaction was quick. He said that he praises Meta’s efforts “to find a solution that satisfies the opposition”. Rama said that he is and remains prepared for any solution that makes it easier for the opposition to return to parliament. He said that he’s “open to any demands or solution, which doesn’t threaten the Constitution and which is not against democratic standards.” The opposition considered this declaration issued by Rama as an invitation for dialogue, but conditional dialogue. The democrat leader, Lulzim Basha, said on Tuesday evening that “the only way to solve the crisis is the creation of a technocrat government, with broad political support, which will work for free and fair elections”. “The opposition invites Edi Rama to withdraw its conditions and put the interests of the country and Albanian citizens above his personal interests”, was the official stance expressed in response to Rama’s invitation, insisting for a technocrat government which indirectly was offered as a solution by SMI.
INTERNATIONAL PRESS
Serbia’s president-elect on his critics, Merkel and the outlook for the region (Politico, by Matthew Karnitschnig, 6 April 2017)
Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic sat down with POLITICO on Wednesday for his first extensive interview since winning his country’s presidential election in a landslide.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and EU leaders regard Vucic, 47, as the guarantor of stability in an unstable region. But Vucic’s detractors say the conservative president-elect has consolidated power to the detriment of Serbian democracy. In the interview, he responded to those criticisms, discussed his admiration for Tito and the outlook for the western Balkans.
What follows is an edited transcript:
Politico: You won Sunday’s election with 55 percent of the vote. Everyone expected you to win, but were you surprised by how commanding your victory was in the end?
Vucic: It went a bit better than I expected. There is always analysis that needs to be done to see whether we could do it better or not. But all in all it went well. It was really a clear victory because there were no objections to the election process. They (the other campaigns) signed all the minutes.
Politico: There have been some reports of irregularities. What do you make of them?
Vucic: There were only two real objections from two polling stations, which means nothing. It’s not a big issue. They all know it. It was the calmest day so far in Serbia on an election day. That’s why some people are so nervous.
Politico: Are you referring to this week’s protests over the elections in Belgrade and other cities?
Vucic: Yes. There were 4,700 yesterday (Tuesday) in Belgrade. There are always people not satisfied with election results. It’s a democratic process. Nobody intervened, we allowed them to protest. It’s … a real sign of democracy and when you have all your rights to protest against someone without any kind of disturbance and interruption that it is a sign of democracy. I’m very proud of that.
Politico: And yet, opposition to you here remains quite emotional and intense. Critics say you are concentrating too much power in your hands.
Vucic: If you carefully read all the remarks against me you will see that it’s more or less personal hatred. Can they say something about our economic growth, about first slowing and then changing the trajectory of our public debt? They can’t. We cut unemployment from 25.9 percent to 13 percent. If that’s not good enough, then tell me what’s good enough. I’m still not satisfied. I’m always craving to do something better and they just don’t get it.
Politico: On the economic front, you’ve spoken of the need for more cooperation within the region. The EU supports your idea for a free-trade area in the western Balkans. Given your aspirations to join the EU, why is this a priority?
Vucic: We need to live before we enter the EU. We need to stay firmly on the EU path, but at the same time we need to do something to boost regional cooperation … I’ll give you a very practical example. We have a dairy plant, let’s say. They export yoghurt, milk and cheeses to Bosnia. Their trucks have to wait for no less than 36 hours at a border between Bosnia and Serbia for all the inspections and we don’t know why. All of our companies and others would save at least 7 percent of all operational costs if we agree on this.
Politico: So far, the plan hasn’t gotten much traction. Will that change now that you will be president?
Vucic: If all the others will agree on it, we’ll become a market of 20 million people. That’s quite a significant market. We will be able to attract many more investors than we were able to do so far. That’s something I think the others understand.
Politico: Are you trying to recreate Yugoslavia?
Vucic: It’s the old Yugoslavia, plus Albania. It’s a political idea but without jeopardizing their sovereignty. It will boost our economies. We need growth rates of 4 percent to 5 percent on an annual basis, not 3 percent. That’s not enough.
Politico: Given the tensions in the region, what makes you think your neighbors will accept this sort of cooperation?
Vucic: Tito did it. He was a communist dictator, but a very smart guy. A locksmith, can you imagine? But he was very smart. He knew how to connect the people…That’s what we need. We need to connect people.
Politico: There’s been a lot of discussion in Brussels and elsewhere in Europe recently about the risk of renewed conflict in the western Balkans. Where do you see the greatest danger?
Vucic: Whatever might happen in Kosovo, it’s always between Serbs and Albanians. If you have at least one side that’s reasonable, you’ll avoid most of the problems. But in Bosnia, there are three sides and it’s not easy to deal with that. Not at all…It’s Bosnia that’s a real barrel of gunpowder.
Politico: Are you worried the Bosnian Serbs will hold a referendum to secede?
Vucic: There won’t be any referendums on secession. That’s what I heard from (Bosnian Serb leader Milorad) Dodik two days ago in Mostar where we had a dinner with prime ministers from the region. There will be some new jeopardy — the Croatian-Bosniak relationship. That could spark some other issues.
Politico: Is it not a good sign that all of Bosnia’s leaders are sitting down and eating dinner together?
Vucic: They were kind to each other, decent and polite. But I didn’t see that they got along on important issues. I saw more rifts… Two good sentences from all of them and when you go into details you see that there are no possible arrangements on the horizon…They all fight for their territories, their rights.
Politico: You were just in Berlin to confer with Angela Merkel. What is her view of the situation here and how important is her role in keeping the peace?
Vucic: She and her advisers know everything about the tiniest detail in the western Balkans. She is worried, and I’m profoundly grateful to her. She takes care of the region. Without her support and presence here … we’d be lost in space. We’d have more very huge problems.
Politico: Today’s the 25th anniversary of the start of the Bosnian war, which left more than 100,000 dead and displaced more than one million. You were a young Serb nationalist then. What lessons do you take from that experience?
Vucic: I learned all the lessons. I’m a Serb, a very proud Serb and will always be with my people, but I learned to put myself in the shoes of all the others and see what they feel, what they think. We need to respect their views as well. We can’t see only ourselves.
Brussels is Letting Bosnia’s Reform Agenda Slip Away (BIRN, by Bodo Weber, 6 April 2017)
It will be a disaster for both Bosnia and the EU if Brussels continues its policy of abandoning conditionality in the country.
On Wednesday, April 5, Bosnia’s parliament rejected the request of the Council of Ministers – the government – to approve in urgent procedure a draft law on raising the excise tax on fuel – despite pressure from the EU Delegation, individual member states’ ambassadors and the IMF.
The measure is part of the Reform Agenda 2015-18 that forms the centerpiece of the EU’s current initiative for BiH. It is also part of the conditionality in the IMF’s current credit arrangement that it agreed with Bosnia in September 2016 as a support for reforms to be undertaken within the Reform Agenda framework. With their decision, that seems in part to be connected to the slowly [unofficially] starting campaign for the 2018 general elections, MPs have not only prevented the payment of the second tranche of the IMF credit so direly needed by the entities to keep their budgets stable. They have also thrown the EU’s initiative for Bosnia into crisis only half a year after the EU congratulated itself for having allegedly unlocked the country’s EU integration process and restored reform momentum.
New approach, old problems:
The current EU initiative was launched in November 2014 by Germany and Britain and was subsequently adopted as the EU’s new initiative for BiH. Earlier, in February 2014, violent social protests had broken out in Bosnia and they marked the failure of the EU’s previous policy approach in catalyzing real change in the country. They enabled Berlin and London, whose dispute over the correct course of action to take in BiH had blocked the Union from having any meaningful policy, to get together behind a joint initiative. The focus of the new initiative was on structural socio-economic reform. Sensitive political issues like constitutional reform were pushed aside, for consideration at a later stage, in order to unblock BiH’s long-stalled EU integration process. From a distance, the initiative may appear successful; in September 2016, less than two years after the start of the initiative, the EU’s General Affairs Council, GAC, referred BiH’s membership application to the European Commission to prepare an Opinion.
This marked the last of three steps in the EU integration process, originally foreseen as a reward for the fulfillment of certain reforms. However, close examination of the state of reform within the scope of the EU initiative, undertaken by the author in a recent report, challenges this impression. Bosnia’s authorities were able to agree with the EU and the International Financial Institutions, IFIs, on a broad agenda for socio-economic reform, the Reform Agenda 2015-18.
If fully implemented, the Agenda could profoundly undermine the country’s patronage system – the system that forms the raison d’être of the political elites and is the main cause of the state’s dysfunctionality and resistance to reform. The Agenda has indeed brought some momentum to reforms not seen in a decade. Most of the reform momentum is due to the actions of the IFIs, especially the IMF, which put in place new credit arrangements to support the Agenda and imposed strict financial conditionality. However, the reforms achieved so far are limited and fragile, the sustainability of the reforms is highly questionable and the long-term socio-political outlook remains tenuous. In almost all reform areas covered by the Agenda, structural reforms are still at an early stage. Numerous delays have occurred since 2015 in the implementation of Reform Agenda measures, resulting from disputes among the ruling elites over their entrenched interests, which are endangered by the reforms. The year 2018 is an election year, which means that only a limited time slot remains to implement those multiple structural reforms. It is simply impossible for many of them to be completed within that timeframe. With respect to other conditions the EU made on BiH’s progress toward EU integration, the EU has continued its practice of retreating from conditionality in the face of resistance to reform. EU institutions have compromised on their own conditions, lowered conditionality, ignored self-set deadlines and in some cases, have dropped conditionality entirely. When the conditions were fulfilled, it was mainly due to the EU’s inattention to the substance [or lack thereof] of the “solutions” agreed among BiH political leaders, thus turning conditionality into an exercise in mere box-ticking.
The result is that some of the solutions may never function in practice, like the coordination mechanisms or the published results of the 2015 census. Finally, the relationship between the EU and BiH in implementing the EU initiative has turned into a closed-shop operation. Parliaments, civil society and the public at large have largely been bypassed in terms of policy development and policy-making. The EU’s unwillingness to develop – and its unfamiliarity with developing – a popular constituency has weakened its leverage and increased that of Bosnia’s recalcitrant politicians.
Outlook for EU initiative is grim:
Given this background, the prospects for the further implementation of the Reform Agenda appear grim, even more so because there are a multitude of uncertainties regarding the way forward. At the time it adopted the UK-German initiative in 2014, the EU weakened conditionality for the last step of its BiH initiative – referral of BiH’s membership application to the European Commission – from “full implementation” to “meaningful progress” in implementing the Reform Agenda. Currently, no plan is in place to press for full implementation as an absolute condition for further progress in EU accession. The impact of this loss of leverage is visible in the EU’s failure to convince the members of BiH’s parliament to adopt the law on excise tax. Also, on December 9, 2016, the European Commission handed the Questionnaire over to BiH authorities, the answers to which will enable the preparation of its Opinion on the membership application. Already there are signs that they will lose focus on implementing the Reform Agenda, or worse, that political elites could use the Questionnaire as an excuse to dodge further reforms. However, the Reform Agenda process has proven that the leading international actors in BiH can successfully push for the country to get on a sustainable reform track – as demonstrated by the IMF’s application of tough conditionality. It is not because conditionality doesn’t or cannot work in BiH – as many EU officials argue – that the EU initiative has yielded only limited results. It is rather because the EU has lacked the political will to consistently signal and apply tough, strict conditionality. A collapse of the Reform Agenda may not be just another failure of the EU in BiH. Loss of the EU initiative risks leading to renewed violent social unrest, with the likelihood that politicians will succeed this time in deflecting it in an ethnic direction, unlike 2014. Such intentional diversion into ethnic violence would pose a direct security risk to the EU. To prevent such a scenario requires political will and leadership by the EU, primarily by Germany, to genuinely lead the Reform Agenda towards successful completion. No substantial additional resources are needed, but a strategic re-thinking and adjustment of the initiative is required. This process must include the EU’s acceptance and inclusion of BiH’s citizens as its allies in pushing for structural socio-economic reforms.
Bodo Weber is Senior Associate of the Democratization Policy Council, based in Berlin.
The opinions expressed in the comments section are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.
Croatia Opposition MPs Take ‘Agrokor Law’ to Task (BIRN, by Sven Milekic, 6 April 2017)
Croatian opposition MPs have said they fear the government’s new ‘special law’ on the troubled giant Agrokor will not help the company and its employees, or the economy in general.
Croatia’s parliament on Thursday was set to pass a new “special law”, which is generally believed to have been designed to help the troubled private company Agrokor. However, some opposition MPs insist the law will not help the company in the long term, or its smaller suppliers and employees, or the economy in general. The proposed Law on Procedures for Extraordinary Management in Companies of Systematic Significance was immediately labelled “Lex Agrokor”, as the criteria for giving the state a role in company crisis management practically fits only Agrokor. The first draft envisaged such procedures applying only to companies employing over 8,000 staff – with Agrokor being the only private company in Croatia with that number of employees. The threshhold for intervention was later cut to 5,000 people, to potentially include a few more private companies. Additionally, another criterion is that the companies must have debts of over one billion euros, which also only fits Agrokor. “This law isn’t designed to help small suppliers and workers but exclusively and only to secure the survival of … the banks in Croatia that credited Agrokor … and the bigger suppliers,” Pedja Grbin, an MP from the main opposition Social Democratic Party, SDP, told BIRN. He explained that besides imposing an extraordinary manager on the company, controlled by the Economy Ministry, the law proposal envisages installing a “creditors’ council”. “When we know that for any settlement [of debts] a majority is needed in that council – a majority that the banks and the biggest suppliers have – then we know there won’t be any conclusion of the process without the consent of these banks,” the MP said. The MP emphasised his conviction that the banks in the end will decide whose debts are paid off. “According to the proposed law, all financial claims towards the company can be put ‘on hold’ for up to 15 months … but once when the claims are ‘unfrozen’, Agrokor will again meet the same scenario,” Ivan Pernar, another opposition MP, from the leftist group Living Wall, told BIRN. Pernar also claimed that Agrokor “cannot avoid bankruptcy” even with the passage of the new law. He also emphasised that while Agrokor’s debts will be put “on hold”, the debts of its suppliers – to which Agrokor owes over 2.2 billion euros – “won’t be put ‘on-hold’, as the banks will activate promissory notes because they won’t be able to get the money from Agrokor”. The account of the one of Agrokor’s bigger suppliers, the coffee, tea and snacks company Franck was blocked on Wednesday for this reason. The same problem of blocked accounts has been reported with some other supplying companies. “Suppliers will lose the chance the get back their 2.2 billion euros if the law comes in action … as the proposed extraordinary manager can only repay suppliers for the current debt created in this [law’s] 15-month process,” Pernar concluded. Claiming the law was “clearly written with Agrokor” in mind, SDP MP Grbin noted that a similar law passed in Italy, which has much bigger and stronger economy, included all companies with over 1,000 employees and 300 million euros of debt.
Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic denied that the new law was written for the purposes of rescuing Agrokor while presenting it to parliament on Thursday. However, he added, “If the actors around Agrokor don’t find a solution that provides new liquidity, wages for employees, tax liabilities, payment of debts to suppliers, then we [the government] will build a legal framework for a plan ‘B’,” he told the media the same day. Plenkovic mentioned a likely meeting with Antonio Alvarez III, Agrokor’s new chief restructuring officer – whose appointment was a result of the standstill agreement hatched between the company and its main creditors. Alvarez, head of restructuring in the global consultancy agency Alvarez & Marsal, presented himself to the Croatian public on Tuesday, saying he “cannot make any promises” that there would be no layoffs. The company’s role in the economy of Croatia is massive, with revenues of 6.5 billion euros in 2015 – almost 16 per cent of Croatia’s total GDP – and around 40,000 employees. Agrokor employs another 20,000 people in neighbouring Bosnia and Serbia, while it is believed that suppliers and companies for the Slovenian retailer Mercator – which Agrokor bought in 2014 – employ around 70,000 people in Slovenia as well.
