LOCAL PRESS

Special parliament session scheduled (Beta/Tanjug)

Outgoing President Tomislav Nikolic will hand over his duties to President-elect Aleksandar Vucic during a ceremony in the Presidency building on Wednesday. The handover of presidential duties will take place at 1:10pm in the ceremonial hall of the Presidency after Vucic takes his oath of office in the Serbian parliament, the presidential press office announced in a statement quoted by Tanjug. Assembly President Maja Gojkovic on Tuesday scheduled a special session for 11am on Wednesday. Vucic won in the first round of the presidential election held on 2 April. Beta is reporting that several organizations and movements announced they would organize protests on Wednesday.

Vucic holds last news conference as prime minister (B92)

The Serbian government would not have been able to do anything if there were not for citizens and their support, says Aleksandar Vucic. Speaking in front of Villa Mir in Belgrade, he recalled that 2014 was an extremely difficult year, when Serbia was hit by devastating floods – and a year from which his government emerged “without a single affair.” “We spent all the money making new cities, towns, villages,” said Vucic. He thanked outgoing President Tomislav Nikolic for supporting the government “in the harshest measures of consolidation”, as well as ministers and public servants who “worked and didn’t whine.” According to him, the reputation of Serbia today is significantly higher “than it has ever been.” However, Vucic continued, he is “still not satisfied and we have much more to do.” Speaking about the international community, Vucic said that Serbia’s goal “should not be only Western Europe – although the EU is one of the main objectives – but also to have strongest relations with Russia, China and the US.” “We have been protecting our interests through the talks on Kosovo and Metohija, but much that is not easy awaits us in the future. It is important that we have been conducting a decisive and reasonable policy of preserving peace and stability,” Vucic said. When it comes to the military and the police, he said that much has been done in the form of procurement of equipment and weapons, while “the plan is to continue the same way, because the goal of the government of Serbia is to have a modern army, which should be the prevention of attacks and aggression, as well as a modern police, which will confront and fight the most serious forms of crime – and to understand that the state is the only one that has a monopoly on physical force.” Vucic also touched on what has been done in the field of culture, sports and education, which he said he has not had much opportunity to mention. “In sport we have, compared to the last 12, 13 years, won two or three times more medals. One of the reasons is that we have invested a lot more money,” said Vucic. He also invited all social actors to join the government and engage in a comprehensive reform of education, “because it is a very important issue that the government is not able to complete alone.” Speaking about EU accession negotiations, Vucic said Serbia faces “great struggle” over chapters 22 and 23. “The Ministry of Justice should accelerate activities,” he added. “It is also important to fill all regulatory bodies engaged in the fight against corruption, and to adopt appropriate laws. This is necessary, not only for our sake, but also for foreign investors, who find it very important,” Vucic said. On the foreign policy front, Vucic said that Serbia will continue on its path towards the EU, but it will keep its traditional friends. “In the coming months we expect to open new chapters on the road towards the EU,” said Vucic. Speaking about changes to the Constitution, he said it was “our obligation in accordance with the (EU) chapters that we have opened.” “I’m ready to involve all parties, to consider where we see Serbia in 20 or 30 years – not us in politics, but Serbia. If possible, to achieve a consensus about it – but that someone forcing it through and adopting against the will of the people, that you won’t see. ” “I did not lie to citizens, better times are coming every day,” he also said during the news conference. In addition, Vucic said that his message to the people of Serbia and the future government is “to believe in themselves, to love their Serbia and have faith in it.” “I belived in Serbia, I believe in it, and always will. I am certain that Serbia will be a good place to live,” said Vucic.

Vucic: Three options for prime minister (TV Pink)

Vucic told TV Pink that he has in mind three candidates for the prime minister. “One option is somebody from the SNS. The second option is the SPS, i.e. Ivica Dacic. We have built good relations of trust with them, and I am grateful for their support. The third option is somebody who is not a member of any part,” said Vucic, noting that he will discuss this on 11, i.e. 12 June.

Vucic said that, by assuming the post of the head of state, he intends to open the Kosovo issue, although he doesn’t intend to surrender it. “I will swear on the Constitution. I don’t have the right to surrender Kosovo, but we need to open this topic,” said Vucic in response to the question posed by LDP leader Cedomir Jovanovic on whether he will break off, as the president, Gordian knots that are blurring the EU perspective of the country, primarily when it comes to Kosovo. “I will not recognize Kosovo, this is my policy, but I am prepared to talk and to accept the fact that we have many myths and legends,” said Vucic.  He adds that as the president he will also deal with some other strategic issues, such as amendments to the Serbian Constitution, in view of the jurisdictions of the President of the Republic, for example, and education. He called on Serbian citizens in Kosovo and Metohija to vote for the Serb List, noting it was important for the life of Serbs in Kosovo.

Responding to the criticism of former Serbian president Boris Tadic in regard to Kosovo and Metohija, Vucic said that Tadic had done something that dramatically limited us – introduction of a border at Jarinje, but that had to occur to a greater of lesser extent. “The Community of Serb Municipalities is the key part of the Brussels agreement, this was the wisest document in difficult times,” said Vucic. He says that Tadic didn’t like to pass decisions. “We passed the decision that all policemen will be Serb nationality, that the Albanian boot will not set foot in north Kosovo,” said Vucic. He added that German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Tadic that he had deceived her for everything he had said. “She can’t stand those who lie and deceive, and some from Tadic’s team were constantly lying her,” said Vucic.

Dacic: Dedication to European integration, good neighborly relations (RTS/Beta)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said that the Serbian government will continue to fight to preserve the sovereignty and territorial integrity, and commitment to European integration, good neighborly relations and military neutrality. Speaking at a ceremony marking the Day of Serbian Diplomacy, Dacic underlined that in order to keep pace with the world, requires a constant modernization of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is necessary, which will allow a timely response, both on the topical as well as sudden and unexpected events. With a realistic assessment of security and political challenges it is facing, firmly resolved to solve all disagreements and problems through dialogue and other diplomatic means, with the primary goal of preserving regional peace and stability, Serbia has once again shown that it has the capacity for pragmatic and responsible action, he added. The Serbian government, as he pointed out, will continue the principled struggle for the preservation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will oppose the hints of the formation of the so-called Kosovo army and other attempts of membership in international organizations.

It will also remain committed to continuation of the negotiation process with the European Union, further development of good neighborly relations and military neutrality, Dacic stated.

Macedonian ambassador to Serbia to be summoned (Tanjug)

Macedonian Ambassador to Serbia Vera Jovanovska-Tipko will be summoned to the Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tanjug reports. The agency said it learned that Jovanovska will be asked today to provide answers about the wiretapping of journalists and representatives of Serbs in Macedonia. She will also be asked to explain how transcripts of the wiretapped conversations became public, and whether other ambassadors posted in Skopje – whose countries’ security services were present in the Macedonian Assembly (during the April 27 incident) – had been summoned to the Macedonian MFA along with the Serbian ambassador – or whether this had been done selectively, only with the Serbian ambassador.

REGIONAL PRESS

Cubrilovic: DNS will not support removal of RS government (ATV)

“All those who want and expect to take over the authority in the RS should prepare for the next year’s elections. It is unrealistic for this to happen now because the election process does not predict snap or early elections,” speaker of the RS Assembly and DNS Vice-president Nedeljko Cubrilovic told ATV and noted that the opposition’s proposal is frivolous. “Removal of the government would lead us into new political crisis,” he said and underlined that DNS delegates will be against adoption of daily agenda of the RS Assembly that would include the removal request.

B&H Constitutional Court to meet in early June, official agenda does not include Bosniak VNI (Vecerjni list)

The B&H Constitutional Court, which is scheduled to meet in early June, will not discuss the issue of failure to implement the Court’s earlier decision regarding motion submitted by former Speaker of the B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Bozo Ljubic. According to the daily, despite the fact the Court passed its decision on 1 December 2016, the decision was published in the Official Gazette of B&H on 6 January 2017, which means the Parliament of B&H will have additional one month to implement the Court’s decision. Daily further reads that the official agenda of the Court’s session does not say the Court will discuss the vital national interest (VNI) invoked by the Bosniak Caucus in the B&H House of Peoples (HoP) regarding adoption of changes to the Law on Elections. Daily goes on to say that despite the fact some foreign diplomats and ‘political machinery from Sarajevo’ claim that nothing could jeopardize holding of the 2018 general elections, High Representative Valentin Inzko stated before the UN Security Council that keeping current unconstitutional provisions (in Law on Elections) could cause big problems and crisis. Namely, Inzko said that without election of the FB&H HoP, it would be impossible to elect delegates into the B&H HoP, it would be impossible to elect members of the FB&H Presidency, which in turn would mean it would be impossible to appoint new FB&H government after the 2018 elections.

A demarche to Gritsay: Montenegrin diplomat was hardly allowed to help Vukovic (CDM)

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro issued a demarche to Moscow over detention and deportation of DPS MP Miodrag Vukovic. “On the occasion of last night’s detention of MP Miodrag Vukovic at the Domodedovo airport in Moscow, Russian Ambassador to Montenegro Sergei Nikolayevich Gritsay has been summoned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where acting director general for bilateral affairs Ivan Lekovic and acting director general for consular affairs Selim Lika handed him the demarche. On that occasion, they pointed to the inappropriate conduct of the competent Russian authorities during the unjustified detention of Vukovic. The relevant Russian authorities then failed to provide basic conditions, particularly having in mind his deteriorated health condition,” the ministry told CdM. The Ministry also emphasized inappropriate treatment of diplomatic representative of the Montenegrin Embassy in the Russian Federation. “Initially, the representative was not allowed to communicate with the Montenegrin MP. After insisting and urging the competent authorities at the airport, she was able to meet with Vukovic and provide the necessary help to him. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expects establishing the true facts and reasons related to the event, bearing in mind that on this occasion, basic rules of international law and rules of good diplomatic communication were violated,” the ministry stated. In a brief statement to CdM, Vukovic said he was “very tired and exhausted because he had not slept and that he would comment on the situation after a night of sleep”.

Brajovic expects Moscow to apologize for detaining Vukovic (CDM)

The parliament speaker of Montenegro, Ivan Brajovic, expressed grave concern and condemned the undiplomatic treatment towards DPS MP Miodrag Vukovic. “Retention, harassment and preventing MP Vukovic from continuing his trip, although he was in the Moscow airport in transit, is contrary to international law and diplomatic practice. In addition, not allowing him to communicate and use his personal things can be considered as a violation of basic human rights,” said Brajovic. He expects official explanation and apology for the improper relation towards the representative of the supreme legislative body of Montenegro.

Russian Embassy admitted: There is a list of Montenegrin officials declared persona non grata (CDM)

In its response to CdM’s questions, the Russian Embassy in Montenegro admitted that there was a list of Montenegrin officials who were denied entry to Russia. However, it did not want to disclose who they were. This is the first official confirmation that there is a list of people from our country that had been declared persona non grata in Russia. The Embassy said that this was a reciprocal response to Montenegro’s initiative to impose sanctions in bilateral relations. On the occasion of the DPS MP Miodrag Vukovic’s deportation, the Embassy of the Russian Federation also stated that Vukovic had not been detained, but that he had not been allowed to enter the territory of the Russian Federation. The Embassy confirmed that Vukovic was on the list of people declared persona non grata. “As for the names of other persons who have been declared as non grata in Russia, the embassy does not comment on that issue,” said the Embassy.

Moscow brings down opposition agreement in Herceg Novi (Pobjeda)

Part of Democratic Front (DF), led by the Democratic People’s Party (DNP) conditioned its support to the opposition candidate for the mayor of Herceg Novi with the adoption of a declaration on lifting sanctions to Russia in the Herceg Novi city council, Milan Knezevic’s DNP told Pobjeda. The declaration on lifting sanctions to Russia that is supposed to be adopted in Montenegrin municipalities where the opposition is in power has been agreed on in Voronezh, Russia. The declaration was conceived and adopted during DF leaders’ Andrija Mandic and Milan Knezevic visit to Russia in May. The contents of the declaration is known to the high officials of the United Russia party and Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A member of the DNP Presidency and Milan Knezevic’s closest associate, Vladislav Bojovic, told Pobjeda that the party would require including the draft declaration in the coalition agreement on forming local government in Herceg Novi. ”We will demand that this initiative is one of the basic principles in the formation of government in Herceg Novi. If all political entities during the election campaign in Herceg Novi were in favour of the best relations with Russia, lifting sanctions and attracting Russian investments, then the draft declaration shall be included in the coalition agreement as one of the main guidelines for governing the town. After all, Herceg Novi residents confirmed this when they supported us,” Bojovic said.

The government in Herceg Novi has not been constituted yet. On 26 May, only Milos Bigovic (PzP) was elected the chairman of the city council. The Democrats representative Stevan Katic was supposed to be elected as president of the municipality on the same day, but his election was postponed for the first week of June, probably 8 June. According to Pobjeda’s reliable information, the New Serb Democracy (NOVA) supports DNP’s request. Therefore, Katic’s election, as well as opposition’s agreement in the city is in question, since DNP and NOVA have a total of three councilors – enough to block the selection of Herceg Novi mayor. Bojovic has gone a step further by announcing that the party will initiate a draft declaration in all local governments where the opposition is in power. “The initiative coming from the Russian-Serbian-Montenegrin association Slovenski Most (Slav Bridge) fully corresponds to the mood of the majority of citizens of Montenegro. As far as DNP is concerned, it is not only acceptable, but will initiate it in all local governments, particularly where we are in power,” said Bojovic. “If the declaration is not adopted, we are ready to review further participation in local governments in Budva, Kotor, and other municipalities where the opposition is in power,” Pobjeda’s source from DNP said. DF told Pobjeda that the declaration was sent to all parliamentary parties, as well as all potential coalition partners in Herceg Novi. Among other things, the document says that “the government’s decision to join the EU sanctions against Russia drastically worsened relations with the most important economic partner”. Sanctions have significantly harmed the economy of Montenegro and our municipalities are suffering significantly. In addition to great political benefit to the overall relations, a positive decision on the abolition of sanctions against Russia in certain cities would be of a great economic importance, both for the cities and Montenegro as a whole. The declaration also states that Russia could freeze or terminate its counter-sanctions (which might be intensified) towards those cities that adopt this or a similar declaration.

President Ivanov meets EU diplomats, calls for opening of EU accession talks (Republika)

Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov held a meeting with the Ambassadors from European Union countries accredited to Macedonia, at which he called for the opening of EU accession talks. President Ivanov said that it is necessary that the European Union makes a step forward and determines a date to open accession talks with the Republic of Macedonia, and to open the Chapters 23 and 24. “Opening these chapters which cover the judiciary, basic human rights, justice, freedom and security will give the necessary impetus to intensify the reform process. We can’t have the status quo situation. We need the transformative power of the negotiating process and the unifying power of this process to confront the deep political polarization,” President Ivanov told the ambassadors, while also urging the political parties to show their commitment to European integration and to prioritize reforms that will drive the EU accession. According to the press release, the EU diplomats welcomed President Ivanov’s decision to give the mandate to form a government to SDSM leader Zoran Zaev, which opened the way to politically stabilize the country. They also expressed an expectation that the next government will push a pro-EU agenda of reforms that will integrate Macedonia closer to the Union. The diplomats said that they highly value President Ivanov’s open approach and gave their assurances that the EU will put Macedonia and the region in general high at its agenda. President Ivanov also discussed his recent visits to Jordan, the Russian Federation and the Vatican and the forthcoming regional summits Brdo – Brioni and the South East European cooperation process.

Xhaferi opened parliament session in Albanian language (MIA)

With an opening speech in Albanian language, parliament speaker Talat Xhaferi opened Tuesday’s second parliamentary session with a single point on the agenda, election of a new government. Immediately thereafter, he addressed the MPs in Macedonian language and said that he will run the session in Macedonian language. The first remark was made by VMRO-DPMNE MP Antonio Milososki, who said to MP Talat Xhaferi that he was violating the Law on languages, because a session in Albanian language can be run in a working body, but not in the parliament. Xhaferi’s answer was that as long as he is referred to as MP Talat Xhaferi,” he would exercise the right to deliver address in his native language.

Xhaferi held a coordination meeting with the exception of VMRO-DPMNE (Republika)

Speaker Talat Xhaferi held Monday a coordination meeting with representatives of political parties represented in the parliament with the exception of VMRO-DPMNE. Speaker Xhaferi and representatives of SDSM, DUI, Alliance of Albanians, DPA and Besa referred to the order in which party representatives would deliver their remarks following the address of the PM-designate at the session over the government election scheduled for Tuesday.

According to the Rules of Procedures, the PM-designate elaborate the government program and its composition before the MPs. The order of the MPs taking part in the debate is determined by the speaker. The debate can last two days at most, followed by a public vote by midnight at the latest on the second day. The government is elected if supported by a majority of MPs, i.e. at least 61. Afterwards, the speaker notifies the President over the government election.

Gruevski says new government created to satisfy ambitions of party leaders (Republika)

The composition of new government, proposed by PM-designate Zoran Zaev, has been set in a rush to satisfy the appetite of parties’ top officials, VMRO-DPMNE leader Nikola Gruevski told reporters on Monday. The election of new cabinet’s members has not been made on the basis of expertise and experience, he said, pointing out that many of them during their previous posts had been involved in corruption affairs. “Hence, we can’t say that it will be a reform government. It can only be an anti-reform cabinet that has been proposed to be illicitly approved by the parliament,” Gruevski says. SDSM members, who have suffered electoral defeat and do not enjoy the citizens’ support, will now hold governmental posts to create policies and decide on Macedonia’s future, the VMRO-DPMNE leader said. SDSM has proven that it doesn’t intend to work seriously on reforms, as the party has relinquished the spheres of justice and health care, it says that are in urgent need of reforms, to the coalition partners, Gruevski said. He also criticized SDSM for failing to nominate ministers for attracting foreign investments and the diaspora.

Council of Europe will support free and fair elections in Albania (ATA)

The Council of Europe assures Albania that it will support it in organizing a free and honest process on 25 June. This was announced by the head of this institution in Tirana, Claus Neukrich during a meeting that he had with the chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC), Klement Zguri. The two interlocutors discussed on the coordination of the projects that CEC is holding with the support of the Council of Europe for the parliamentary elections. On his part, the head of the election administrating body in Albania, considered the support of international organizations, such as the Council of Europe, as crucial to achieve a successful process and a credible one not only by the political parties, but also by the Albanian people.

CEC, lot drawn for parties ranking in ballot paper (ADN)

The lot for electoral subjects ranking in the ballot paper for the next month’s parliamentary elections was drawn on Tuesday by the Central Election Commission (CEC). The parties ranking in the ballot paper for the June 25 elections will be as below:

1. Socialist Movement for Integration (SMI)

2. Socialist Party (SP)

3. Christian Democratic Party (CDP)

4. The Challenge

5. Republican Party (RP)

6. Democratic Party (DP)

7. Democratic National Front Party (DNFP)

8. Demo-Christian Alliance (DCA)

9. Social-Democrat Party (PSD)

10. Democratic Alliance Party (DAP)

11. New Democratic Alliance (NDA)

12. Social-Democracy Party (SDP)

13. Justice, Integration and Unity Party (JIUP)

14. National Arber Alliance (NAA)

15. Greek Ethnic Minority (GEM)

16. Albanian Communist Party (ACP)

17. People’s Alliance for Justice (PAJ)

18. LIBRA

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Trump’s Presidency Keeps US Balkan Policy Unchanged (BIRN, by Florian Bieber, 30 May 2017)

While many expected US foreign policy to undergo some U-turns under Trump, his lack of engagement in international affairs – with a few exceptions – seems to mean Washington’s role in the Balkans is tantamount to “leading from behind”.

Since US President Donald Trump’s election, the country’s foreign policy has been in disarray. With his erratic statements, dismissive attitude towards NATO and other traditional allies, open disdain for the EU and preference for autocrats, the level of geopolitical uncertainty has been higher than with any incoming US president for decades. The US State Department still lacks key appointments, including the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, a post that Victoria Nuland held during the Obama Administration. In this void of no discernible Balkan policy from the Trump administration, controversial statements by congressmen have gained more weight, such as a claim by Dana Rohrabacher from the House of Representatives that Macedonia is not a country or Rand Paul in the Senate opposing Montenegrin NATO membership. Finally, two letters penned by conservative congressmen questioned the use of US AID assistance through Open Society network projects. Macedonia subsequently raised the important question of whether these forays reflected the administration’s actual policies or had just been the product of lobbying efforts.

A number of articles also were published by people considering themselves Balkan experts, who argued for a redrawing of boundaries, such as Timothy Less in Foreign Affairs and John Schindler writing for Jared Kushners old newspaper, the Observer.  Recent weeks seem to have put these initial worries to rest. First, the Senate backed Montenegrin NATO membership 97 to 2, a clear and overwhelming majority, despite considerable (and still murky) efforts by Russia to derail the process. Afterwards in rapid succession, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Hoyt Yee visited the Balkans and made rapid progress. His visit was crucial in “convincing” Macedonian President Ivanov to give opposition leader and representative of the parliamentary majority a mandate in forming a government after months of dithering. Furthermore, he also helped broker an agreement in Albania where the opposition Democratic Party had threatened to boycott the upcoming elections. Thus, even with a president of unclear commitment to NATO, the Euro-Atlantic Alliance, even after his visit to Brussels, the US has been more effective than the EU.

Despite a series of high-level visits to Macedonia, including Donald Tusk, Federica Mogherini and Johannes Hahn, none of these efforts resulted in any resolution of the crisis and President Ivanov even refused to meet enlargement commissioner Hahn.

So has the US regained its clout and direction?

The recent successes are largely suggest that US policy in the Balkans will continue as it has been under the Obama administration, largely described as “leading from behind”, meaning supporting EU policy in the region and preventing crises and supporting the overall reform effort. The hope of some in the region that the Trump administration would shift policy was never more than a pipe-dream. Trump is clearly not interested in foreign policy and when he is, it is limited to larger questions of direct importance for the US. Disinterest, if in doubt supports the status quo and the work of the professionals. The appointment of the missing links in the State Department between the Secretary of State and the professional diplomats is unlikely to lead to a strategic shift for the Balkan policy.

The role of Russia in the region as a power that opportunistically supports the erosion of the regions Euro-Atlantic integration has been crucial in triggering recent US engagement. While the president has an ambiguous role with Russia, to be put it mildly, Congress and the State Department have been clearly seeing Russian intervention as a threat. In particular the Russian involvement in Montenegro, unclear as it is, has drawn US attention, as has the vocal Russian support for the outgoing Macedonian government led by Nikola Gruevski. Of course, the status quo also does not mean that the US administration is likely to find renewed energy to help tackle the problem of stabilitocracy in the region and the rise of autocratic strong men. The current administration lacks the interested and endurance to pursue any new policies, but at least it seems unlikely to abandon previous one.

Furthermore, the willingness to be blunter than its European counterparts and also to use sticks when the EU is limited, such as against Milorad Dodik, can help. Mostly, the effect of US mediation and pressure in Albania and Macedonia reveals the weakness of the EU.

Considering the prominent role of the EU in the region, the high-level visits to Albania and Macedonia, it should have been the EU and not a professional diplomat form a distant US to resolve the crisis. While it is easy to mock Trump and the US and take a moral high ground, especially after the French presidential elections, the leverage of the EU has reached a low point in the Western Balkans. Thus, the real lesson of recent US policy in the Balkans is for the EU: How to become relevant again and make the recent breakthroughs sustainable? Without a renewed EU perspective, the incoming Macedonia government will have a hard time to keep on track and without further EU involvement in Albania the deal will sooner or later disintegrate again. Getting the reforms going again and moving to a positive dynamic will require a renewed US-EU engagement and greater coordination between the two, irrespective of president Trump.

Florian Bieber is professor for Southeast European History and Politics at the University of Graz and Coordinator of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG). Florian Bieber was part of a BiEPAG group visiting the USA recently to discuss Balkan policy in Congress, the State Department, as well as the Atlantic Council and Freedom House.

The opinions expressed in the comments section are those of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.

Could Balkan nations become the new hotbeds of Islamist extremism? (DW, by Boris Georgievski, 30 May 2017)

Muslim communities in the Balkans are facing a growing problem – Islamist radicalism. Both the US and Germany have voiced concerns about extremism taking root in a region still struggling to heal war wounds. At last week’s OSCE meeting in Vienna, official statements from Bosnian and Albanian representatives seemed to confirm that the trend for Balkan jihadis to join the so-called “Islamic State” (IS) and other radical networks in Syria and Iraq has died down. Estimates of the number of Balkan jihadis that joined IS vary, from one thousand to several thousand militants, but hardly any Balkan fighters have left the region for Middle Eastern battlefields in the past two years. Regardless of this success, a small but significant domestic radical presence in Balkan nations, aided by returning IS fighters, is proving an even bigger headache for some western capitals and experts. “There are hardly any extremists who left for Syria and Iraq in the last two years,” Vedran Dzihic, scholar and Balkan expert at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs told DW. “But what’s left is the local phenomenon.” “Salafist, jihadi and Islamist extremists that are here – their infrastructure is intact, and now they are focused on certain countries and on the region as a whole.” Dzihic estimates that around 30 to 40 percent of those who left Kosovo or Bosnia for Syria or Iraq were either killed or stayed there. Around 150 are thought to have returned to Bosnia and less than 120 to Kosovo. “The problem of these returnees exists and they are definitely a security threat,” Dzihic says. The US government is also aware of the problem. Deputy Assistant Secretary Hoyt Yee recently told a hearing in Washington that “more needs to be done.” “As converts to extremism return home from the battlefield or are radicalized in place, Balkan governments worry that they will see a surge in violence, intolerance, and extremism in the region – and perhaps see it exported north and west,” Yee told the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats on May 17.

Spread of Salafism

The same day, during a parliamentary session in Berlin, the German government acknowledged the existence of yet another problem that might further accelerate the radicalization of the Muslim population in the Western Balkans: the growing influence of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. “Saudi Arabian missionary organizations are also active in Kosovo, spreading the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam by sending preachers,” the government said in a written statement. Fundamentalist Salafism, along with different radical branches of Islam, first entered the Balkans through Saudi-sponsored preachers and mosques during the wars in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s. Its influence has spread more dramatically in the last decade, fed in part by the dire economic and social situation in the region and the general lack of opportunities, especially for youth. The six Western Balkan countries (Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Montenegro) have over 50 percent unemployment rates among the youth population and an average monthly salary of around 300 euros ($335). Balkan Muslims are considered to be among the world’s more moderate Islamic communities, meaning radical interpretations of Islam remain alien to most of the region’s population. Still, Balkan countries with Muslim-majority populations, such as Kosovo, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, are often mentioned as possible breeding grounds for religious fanatics and violent extremism. And neighboring Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro are not immune to the problem.

In the recently published book “Between Salvation and Terror: Radicalization and the Foreign Fighter Phenomenon in the Western Balkans,” author Vlado Azinovic claims that radicalization in the region has occurred primarily in the context of militant Salafism. “In essence, the principal goal of militant Salafism in the region is to hijack the ethnic identities of Bosniaks and Albanians, each marked by centuries-old traditions of tolerance, with the aim of eventually absorbing them into a single, illusive global community – an Ummah, defined by religious identity,” Aznovic wrote.

The problem will grow

The US-based Balkan expert Gordon N. Bardos recently compared the current situation in Balkan countries “with that of the Weimar years in Germany in the 1920s and 30s.”

It is similar in that “we are dealing with a collection of countries with weak democratic institutions, depressed economies, and high levels of popular dissatisfaction,” Bardos said.

Such prolonged socioeconomic downturn and rampant corruption, combined with the security risks and weak state institutions, might bring even more people closer to the radical movements.

Dzihic doesn’t think the current situation in the Balkans should be a cause for great concern, but he warned that the signs should be taken seriously. “It is clear that this phenomenon exists,” Dzihic says. “That phenomenon will stay and follow the development of the Balkan countries in the coming years and decades. It is also clear that Islam in the Western Balkans will never have the same form again” as it did before the 1990s. Dzihic predicted that possible further radicalization will go hand-in-hand with developments in the region’s countries. “If the security problems, instability and the economic difficulties continue to grow, this phenomenon will also grow.”

Albania Socialist Party Launches Election Program to Bring EU Membership Closer (PRNewswire, 30 May 2017)

TIRANA, Albania — Edi Rama, the Prime Minister and leader of the Socialist Party of Albania (SP), has outlined an election program aimed at increasing economic growth, reducing unemployment and generating new jobs. The policies were launched over the weekend following settlement of a three-month stalemate over the opposition Democratic Party’s resistance to a program to remove corrupt judicial system officials from office. Under the agreement, the judicial vetting system, a European Union requirement before Albania’s accession negotiations can begin, will now proceed before the elections. Mr. Rama said the breakthrough means that he will be asking the EU to begin negotiations as soon as possible after the June 25 vote. Deploying the slogan “For the Albania we want,” the SP plans to extend its achievements in state-building and job creation to ensure that Albania continues on the right path to the future. “These elections have historical value,” Mr. Rama said. “The elections on June 25 will decide who will be governing for the next four years, but also what Albania will be for those who are born today. Four years ago we found an Albania without a state, filled with debts, tired of injustice and a place where those who didn’t respect the law were considered strong. The Albania that we have now is a candidate for membership in the EU. The Albania we want must sit at the negotiating table and become a member of the EU as soon as possible.” Recently released Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) figures show that the government’s first term, which focused primarily on institutional reform and improved governance, is now starting to show results — in investment, business expansion and in job creation with 3.5% GDP growth in 2016 and 10.5% rise in foreign direct investment. The Socialist Party will now pour all its efforts into economic expansion and generating rewarding jobs for citizens. According to the program, the next SP government’s priorities will include:

• The largest investment portfolio ever within a term, including EUR 2.8 billion in investments from the state budget.

• A reduction in public debt to below 60% of GDP for the first time in 10 years.

• 40% salary increase for public sector workers.

• Raising the minimum monthly wage from 24,000 lek, to 30,000 lek

• Economic growth averaging 4.5% during the next four years, with a target of 5.5% in the final year of the term.

• Unemployment of below 10%, reaching 8.2% in the final year. Some 220,000 new jobs are to be created.

• Gender equality, with women averaging at least 40% in the government, Parliament and key state institutions.

The Socialist Party came to power in September 2013, promising a comprehensive reform of the judicial system and will focus full attention and effort on its successful implementation. “We finally start a new chapter for Albania,” Mr Rama said. “This is good news, but it’s only the start of what we hope to achieve. My government’s first term has focused primarily on institutional reform and improved governance. Now we must pour all our efforts into economic expansion and generating rewarding jobs for our fellow citizens.”

About the Socialist Party of Albania

The Socialist Party of Albania, led by PM Edi Rama, is a social democratic political party which came to power in 2013 pledging extensive institutional reform and a stronger economy. As a result of the government reforms, the nation’s budget deficit has been reduced substantially, tax revenues have risen dramatically and restored confidence in the economy has led to a 10.5% rise in foreign direct investment and 3.5% GDP growth in 2016.

The Socialist Party of Albania is an associate of the Party of European Socialists (PES) and a member of the Socialist International.