LOCAL PRESS

Pristina’s plan B: Unification with Albania (Politika, by Biljana Bakovic and Nikola Belic)

Something is obviously happening, concluded the Chairperson of the Serbian parliamentary Committee for Kosovo and Metohija Milovan Drecun, commenting the latest announcements on unification of Albania and the southern Serbian province. While the influential Atlantic Council is proposing permanent US military presence in South-East Europe and Washington’s more active role in preventing a new Balkan crisis, Tirana and Pristina are talking about organizing a referendum in Kosovo and joining Albania. Albanian academician Rexhep Cosja, for example, stated that unification of Kosovo and Albania should be the first next goal of the Albanians, which should be achieved before joining the EU. “Just as it doesn’t allow member states division into two countries, the EU also doesn’t allow that its two members unite into one state,” Cosja told the Albanian TV Vision plus, RTS reports.

Drecun says it is possible to organize a referendum, and to “fix” the result, they have experience with this, adding that the fact of the matter is that Albania is now reinforcing the story on unification with Kosovo, openly expressing Greater Albania pretensions, while at the same time Kosovo Albanian politicians are trying to drag the US into the story on the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. Is this some well-conceived campaign that should enable the creation of a “Greater Albania”, or the Albanians are trying to use Serbia’s EU membership negotiations in order to get something? Or is this preparation for some international conference, in order to set already now some maximalist demands and get at least half of that? “Creation of a ‘Greater Albania’ certainly cannot pass without the partitioning of Macedonia. Apart from that, a referendum that would be eventually held in Kosovo would not be legitimate, and the result could simply not be implemented peacefully,” says Drecun, adding that “Serbia certainly will not allow for Albania, under the guise of some referendum and unification, to conduct forceful annexation of part of our territory and thus drag the Serbs living in Kosovo and Metohija into some greater Albania”.

US Embassy: We have no information on Rice’s potential engagement (Tanjug)

The US Embassy in Belgrade told Tanjug on Tuesday it had no information about former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice being considered for the role of a special Balkans envoy.

At the same time, on the occasion of the announcements by the NGO sector such as the Atlantic Council, about the intention of the US to join the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and engage stronger in Western Balkans, the US Embassy underlines that many institutions in the US are included the public debate on the US foreign policy on a daily basis but that they have no formal role in shaping the government policy towards Serbia or some other country.

EU: No change of format without consent of both sides (Tanjug)

Any change of format in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue – including US involvement – must also be supported by Serbia, Brussels announced Tuesday. The EU is a facilitator in the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and it is up to the two sides to agree on the content, format, pace and agenda, European Commission spokesperson Maja Kocijancic told Tanjug.

Internal dialogue on Kosovo and Metohija: Resolution 1244 is the only legally binding document (Politika)

The Institute of International Politics and Economics (IIPE) organized a scholarly debate within the so-called internal dialogue on Kosovo and Metohija, initiated by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic aimed at providing the academic views on plausible solutions for the final status of Kosovo. After introductory address given by the Director of the IIPE Professor Branislav Djordjevic, Professor Milenko Dzeletovic and Vladimir Ajzenhamer, both from the Faculty of Security, University of Belgrade – and Vladimir Trapara, the IIPE Research Fellow, offered their opinions and responded to the audience questions and comments. Professor Dzeletovic emphasized the vital importance of a proper perception of the economic aspect of the Kosovo issue particularly regarding the value of the property of the Republic of Serbia and economic resources trapped in the southern Serbian province. He also presented empirical evidence to support his claim that Albanian economic actors and population are still tightly connected to economic processes in the rest of Serbia. Vladimir Ajzenhamer shared his concerns that less visible risks to the national security of Serbia and neighboring countries might arise from the home-grown religious radicalization of young Albanians in Kosovo. Vladimir Trapara presented his own proposal for a solution to the final status of the southern Serbian province that takes into account the Albanian and Serbian interests as well as the policy of great powers towards the Western Balkans. Professor Ivo Viskovic has proposed the third phase of the dialogue in three scenarios. “From the most to the least favorable for us, where we would analyze the feasibility or possibility of feasibility of such ideas. If we don’t have this, I am afraid that this is similar to what is called in science the Delphi method, that it will stay unfinished, a series of ideas that will not be summarized,” said Viskovic.

Former foreign minister of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Zivadin Jovanovic thinks that Resolution 1244 would be the only legally binding document for Serbia and that no other paper should be signed. He says that Serbia should not recognize the independence of the southern province over possible EU membership. “I don’t know why the issue of the return of 250,000 displaced Serbs has so far not been launched in the dialogue,” said Jovanovic.

Dodik: I can have different stances than Vucic, but this does not bother our good relation (RTRS/Srna/Alo)

RS President Milorad Dodik told Alo that he expects the upcoming visit of B&H Presidency members to Serbia and meeting with President Aleksandar Vucic, to demonstrate good intentions of Serbia, which wants cooperation in the region, most notably with B&H. However, Dodik deems that this will not hit “fertile ground” with Bakir Izetbegovic, who will “continue to demonstrate his position of schemer, as well as the fact that he is not in favor of reconciliation of two peoples”. Dodik rejected speculation that Vucic is exerting pressure over him, noting that he and Vucic can have different political stances, but this does not bother good relations between them. “I am known for not being able to suffer the pressure, but I accept rational arguments”, said Dodik. He confirmed that he has good cooperation with Serbia and Vucic. RS President noted that B&H and Izetbegovic cannot recognize Kosovo, adding that they would have done that if they were able, stressing that the RS follows Serbian policy in regards to preserving of territorial integrity. “Our stance on this is proven. RS did not allow recognition of Kosovo, we have sacrificed our own position for that, hypothetically, if this story about independent Kosovo was successful, we would maybe have a change to ask- what about the RS”, said Dodik. He deems that forming of alleged paramilitary structures in B&H, present a threat to the RS, as they are formed with intention to jeopardize the RS. “Naturally that Bakir Izetbegovic is doing that, but that is a complete nonsense that can bring nothing good”, said Dodik, adding that the RS is facing the necessity of raising its security to higher level and significant funds have been invested in construction of new camp for special police force in Zaluzani, which will present one of the most contemporary police training camps in the region. As for recent death threats, Dodik said that he deems that verdict to Ratko Mladic and his stance on this, were probably reason for some to threaten him , but he pays no attention to this and leaves it to law enforcement. As for the verdict to Mladic, Dodik said that this verdict cannot change position of the RS, which has stable institutions and political structure. Asked if he dreams about RS independence, Dodik said that the RS can be forced to live within B&H for the time being, but B&H will abolish itself by its lack of functionality. He stressed that pressures over him and the RS never ended, adding that the RS is asking for returning of its constitutional competencies. “The imposed things never function. The EU will also have to give up the concept that is imposed,” said Dodik.

FT: Why EU fears China (B92)

“Brussels rattled as China reaches out to Eastern Europe,” writes the Financial Times, in an article about Monday’s China-Central and Eastern Europe summit. “This sub-regional (16+1) approach is meeting a great deal of suspicion not only in Brussels but also in the capitals of many member states,” the newspaper cited “a European diplomat” who wished to remain anonymous “because of the sensitive nature of the topic.” Another high-ranking European diplomat, who spoke under the same condition, called it “only see the tip of the iceberg.” “The (16+1 is) dealing with many things. Some of them are touching on EU competences, or they are going into new areas where there are already initiatives between the EU and China,” he said. According to the report, the EU is worried that Beijing’s closer ties with some poorer nations in Europe will influence the entire bloc’s policy. “In Hungary it is hailed as the ‘Eastward Opening’. Serbian authorities see it as the glue in a ‘reliable friendship’, while the Polish government describes it as a ‘tremendous opportunity’,” the article said, and added: “Yet the 16+1, a grouping of 16 central and eastern European countries led by China, receives more caustic reviews in leading EU capitals, with diplomats fearing it could be exploited by Beijing to undermine union rules and take advantage of growing east-west tensions in the pact itself.”

“It is clear that Beijing’s star is rising” in central and eastern European nations – including in Serbia, which has already has large infrastructure contracts, writes the FT. “For some in the EU there are two main concerns. The first is that China may intensify efforts to use the influence it is building in central and eastern Europe to frustrate aspects of the EU’s common China policy. The second is that some 16+1 countries may exploit strong ties with China to buttress negotiating positions against Brussels,” the newspaper said, and added: “European diplomats say such dynamics could undermine Brussels’ effectiveness in often fractious relations with its second-largest trade partner. One concern is that China’s push for guaranteed contracts for its companies will undermine the EU’s single market rules on public procurement.” “Passions are already running high,” notes the article – German Vice-Chancellor and Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel in September called on Beijing “to respect the concept of ‘one Europe’,” and said that “if we do not succeed for example in developing a single strategy towards China, then China will succeed in dividing Europe.” The EU is also wary of the deals made during the summit, including “Hungary’s failure to open its section of a USD 2.9bn, 350km high-speed rail line from Belgrade to Budapest to competitive tender” that has triggered “an investigation by the commission into whether the project violated EU laws.” In Serbia, writes the FT, “the lure of China on one side and the tug of the EU on the other is creating a division of loyalties.”

REGIONAL PRESS

ICTY Appeals Chamber renders second-instance verdict to Herzeg-Bosnia leadership; session adjourned (Klix.ba)

ICTY Appeals Chamber is rendering the second-instance verdict to leadership of the so called Herzeg- Bosnia, on which occasion the Chamber confirmed that Republic of Croatia participated in wartime events in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) territory. It is established that joint criminal enterprise (JCE) included domination of Croats in Herzeg- Bosnia and that JCE was main goal of Herzeg- Bosnia and Croatian leaderships. The Chamber described final purpose of the JCE and defense parties denied that Franjo Tudjman and other leadership of Croatia, shared this goal. The Appeals Chamber also concluded that Republic of Croatia had true power in certain municipalities in Herzeg- Bosnia territory and that international conflict was led in this region.

When it comes to destruction of Old Bridge in Mostar, the Chamber concluded that this facility had combat importance and was military target, and its destruction resulted in cutting off of the supplies for B&H Army.

The Appeals Chamber confirmed prison sentences to Jadranko Prlic (25 years of imprisonment), Bruno Stojic (20 years of imprisonment) and Slobodan Praljak (20 years).

Following the verdict Praljak said: “Slobodan Praljak is not a war criminal, I reject your verdict with contempt”, after which he drunk the liquid, Praljak said he drank poison after which judge Agius adjourned the session.  The ambulance with rotation lights was sent to the ICTY building after the session got adjourned. According to the unofficial information, Praljak is currently being resuscitated.

Ljubic: Hague Tribunal judgment is slap in the face of Croatia (Nezavisne)

Croatian National People’s Party (HNS) President Bozo Ljubic said that he rejects today’s Hague Tribunal’s ruling for the six Herceg-Bosna leaders as unfounded and considers that, according to the court’s verdict, no command and personal responsibility has been proven.

“And they are convicted of a joint criminal enterprise. The ideological political context has been used, for I do not know what goals, to condemn the Croatian political and military leadership in B&H, the representatives of Croatia were also mentioned,” Ljubic told reporters in Zagreb. From the 2004 indictment through the first instance verdict to this day, says Ljubic, everything said that this was a part of an “international joint venture”. Asked whether Croatia had used all legal possibilities or could do more, Ljubic said that she could and should do more. “This is a slap in the face to the Republic of Croatia. Croatia’s allies the EU and NATO played a decisive role in the decision of the Court in The Hague. Croatia could have done more,” Ljubic pointed out. He said that Croatian President Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic did everything they could, but that in the last 13 years, not enough was done. “I am referring to the period of the last 13 years and the period of the President Stjepan Mesic. They selectively shared and used the documents that were issued from the president’s cabinet, which enabled the trial chambers to make such conclusions” believes Ljubic.

Pandurevic: I feel bitter because Croatia is not condemned for aggression (Nezavisne)

Aleksandra Pandurevic, the head of the Club of Deputies of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) in the House of Representatives of the B&H Parliamentary Assembly, told reporters in Sarajevo today that she feels bitter because Croatia was not convicted of aggression and the first war crime which happened in B&H – Sijekovac, a village near Bosanski Brod. This is how she commented on the second-instance verdict of the International Court of Justice in The Hague in the “Prlic and others” case, in the case of the six former Herceg-Bosna officials, the existence of a joint criminal enterprise, an international conflict as well as an occupation. “Croatia has not been convicted of crimes where they actually happened, and that is in Krajina. The regular army of Croatia came just a few kilometers from Banja Luka, it was not sentenced for the horrible war crime that took place in Mrkonjic, when they have been amnestied for all, the only thing you can only feel is bitterness,” concluded Pandurevic.

Brammertz: I am satisfied with sentence given to Mladic (BHRT)

Asked to comment on the first-instance verdict in the case of Ratko Mladic, ICTY Chief Prosecutor Serge Brammertz said that he is satisfied with the sentence given to Mladic. Brammertz stressed that Mladic’s case was one of the most important cases in history of the ICTY and the ICTY Prosecutor’s Office deems Mladic, together with former Republika Srpska (RS) President Radovan Karadzic, to be “the architect of many crimes committed during the war in B&H”. He reiterated his content with the verdict in Mladic’s case, adding that the ICTY Prosecutor’s Office will first examine the verdict and then decide about possible appeal.

Brammertz stated that he met with many survivors and victims of war crimes in B&H and he had the impression that they were very content Mladic’s arrest and rendering of the verdict. However, he claims that high expectations of survivors and victims are justified and they, as well as the ICTY Prosecutor’s Office, would have been more content if Mladic was found guilty of genocide in six other municipalities in B&H. He stressed that the ICTY Prosecutor’s Office had evidence to prove that genocide was committed in six municipalities in B&H. According to Brammertz, the ICTY Prosecutor’s Office believes that genocidal intent existed in the case of Srebrenica and it was partially recognized by the ICTY but it also existed in the case of six other municipalities.

“The judges did not share our viewpoint and this is definitely something we will examine in details before any decision on an appeal is taken,” Brammertz said. He underlined that the associations of victims will obviously be content with rendering of verdict in an important case, such as the case of Mladic, but he did see statements of many RS officials and he is aware that they are discontent with the verdict. He pointed out that the verdicts rendered by the ICTY were always satisfying for one group of people in B&H and unacceptable for other group of people. “I think this is a part of the judicial process where, of course, the objective is not to have everyone pleased but to determine individual criminal responsibility,” Brammertz stated.

Praljak died in a hospital in The Hague (Hina)

Former Chief of the HVO Main Staff, General Slobodan Praljak, died in a hospital in The Hague after drinking a poison in the Hague courtroom after the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) confirmed his sentence of 20 years in prison for war crimes, confirmed the source close to Praljak.

Reiner: ICTY verdict is historically untrue, unjust and inconceivable (Hina)

The Deputy Speaker of the Croatian Parliament, Zeljko Reiner, said on Wednesday that the verdict for Bosnian Croat General Slobodan Praljak, handed down by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague, was historically untrue, unjust  and inconceivable.

SDP leader calling for the PM to declare a state of emergency if Croatia is at war (HRT)

Davor Bernardic, the leader of the SDP has said that if it was true that Croatia was at war, or better, that hybrid warfare was being waged against it, PM Andrej Plenkovic should declare a state of emergency There was more discussion of hybrid warfare with SDP leader Davor Bernardic saying that he was expecting PM Andrej Plenkovic to declare a state of emergency, following his claims of hybrid media warfare being waged in Croatia. The members of the ruling coalition have meanwhile warned that there are many different examples of such warfare. Interior Minister Davor Bozinovic said that every country has the right to protect itself from such warfare and one of the ways of doing this was to publically speak about the issue.

SDP leader Bernardic said that if there are existing indications provided by the secret services of hybrid warfare being waged against Croatia, which Plenkovic would not be saying off the top of his head, just like that, he (Bernardic) was expecting that Plenkovic summons the highest bodies of the state and declares a state of emergency. Bernardic added that anything less would mean running away from the truth. Meanwhile, Nikola Grmoja of the opposition MOST party has said that he did not know who Croatia was at hybrid war with, but wondered if this was just a way to describe all those who dare criticize moves by the governing coalition. Commenting on these latest claims, HDZ’s Miroslav Tudjman said that soft was stronger than hard or better that information was more powerful than tanks.

Local election analysis: Who was right and whose campaign boomeranged? (CDM)

The political battle for Cetinje has not been completed. Despite the strongest campaign, the biggest commitment, promises made, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) won only 16 seats in the old capital’s assembly and cannot form the government itself. It lacks one councilor to have absolute power, because the Cetinje Assembly has 33 council seats. This is a big drop compared to 2013, when DPS won 19 seats. However, the last local elections show a clear picture of opposition’s actions. The citizens punished narratives without concrete solutions and repeated allegations. Opposition representatives have no chance of forming power. Some of them even risk the disappearance from the political scene. One of the questions is why DPS failed to fully succeed in Cetinje despite the most committed campaign and promises made in Cetinje?

One of the explanations could be that URA Civic Movement attracted votes of citizens who support Montenegro’s sovereignty, thus depriving DPS of several seats and winning five of them. However, unfulfilled promises also left DPS without significant number of votes. One of those used by the opposition in the campaign against DPS is the most famous chocolate factory, which should have been built in 2014. More than 70 citizens of Cetinje were supposed to work in it. It seems that the Cetinje wanted another scenario in these elections – to prevent the DPS from governing the city. And they succeeded. New Cetinje government will depend on Ivan Brajovic’s Social Democrats (SD) who won two seats. The state level of the coalition now moves to the local one in the old capital. SD will soon present its requirements to DPS.

DPS is aware that it might be a challenge since DPS and SD Cetinje committees do not get along well. This was demonstrated even during the pre-election campaign when the SD list leader in Cetinje elections Ivan Gazivoda fiercely attacked DPS on several occasions, particularly with regard to unfulfilled promises. Aleksa Becic’s Democrats (DCG) are in shock because of Cetinje. Despite the campaign that was tougher than the one of all the other players in the political race, this party won only five seats, although it expected to get more.

It seems that citizens responded to the Democrats’ aggressive campaign. Perhaps the best testimony is the message on social media, in which citizens had a clear message for a campaign that did not offer a solution, but only attacked the government: “You made us vote for DPS”.

These local elections show that Ranko Krivokapic’s SDP is facing a fierce political fall. The most serious failure occurred in Petnjica where the party used to have 11 seats. Now it won only one and barely crossed the threshold. This is a huge shock, but it seems to be a declining trend of support for this party at all levels. It did not cross the threshold in Mojkovac and Tuzi, and in Cetinje SDP won three seats compared to five seats it won in 2013 local elections.

According to analysts, Ranko Krivokapic’s party was punished for “political roaming” from government to opposition and even reconciling positions with Democratic Front (DF). DF showed signs of life only in Mojkovac. It won four seats. Although they were omnipresent most active during the campaign there (even helping people in the works in their households), citizens did not support DF as the political alliance expected. This time, it seems that Prime Minister Dusko Markovic was a game changer, who was supported by fellow citizens. And not just that – it appears that the judicial proceeding against the DF leaders leaves a sharp cut. DF has no representatives in Cetinje, Petnjica and Tuzi assemblies. With this trend, DF could face the fate of some of the marginalized parties. Finally, after the results of the election, one thing is clear – DPS remains in power because the opposition has failed.

Ivanov: There must be responsibility for 27 April, but human rights must be respected (Meta)

President Gjorge Ivanov, in his evening speech, said that responsibility must be held for the violent events of 27 April this year, however, that human rights and the presumption of innocence until proven guilty must be respected. Ivanov repeated that, as before and now, he still supports the initiative “For a United Macedonia”, which, as he said, is “made up of citizens who have rallied behind the idea of protecting the country”. He stated that these citizens cannot be treated like terrorists. Ivanov said that in the upcoming period, when the necessary reforms need to be fulfilled, a national consensus and dialogue will be needed to fulfill the reforms.

“With revanchism, the situation in society is polarized. I call on the competent institutions to respect the Constitution and the legal order of Macedonia”, said Ivanov. He emphasized that the people expect solutions, not problems, after all, all political subjects should serve in the interests of all citizens. Ivanov went on to say that “there is nothing more tragic and more dangerous than an inter-Macedonian clash,” stressing that throughout history, always at such moments, evil was brought upon us. Ivanov’s address comes after the Ministry of Interior, by order of the Basic Public Prosecutor’s Office, took into custody 36 people yesterday, for the violence that occurred in parliament on 27 April this year.

Gruevski: They are spreading bad blood and we will fight for justice (Meta)

“Zaev and SDSM are brutally attacking those who think and act Macedonian. This is the last act of a free-thinking Macedonian and citizens who dare to state their position against the Tirana platform and the violence of this government against anyone who thinks as a Macedonian”, said the opposition leader of VMRO-DPMNE today at a press conference at the party’s headquarters.

Gruevski reacted to the action of the Ministry of Interior and the Prosecution who arrested 36 people this morning – participants in the violence in parliament on 27 April 2017. “It’s a matter of our country. This is not justice, and the laws and the Constitution do not apply. This country is being held captive. This is being done to open a path to change the name, identity and history. The same day the government discusses amnesty, an opera singer, actor, director, doctor and architect are being charged with terrorism. There are no laws or rules. It is like the ‘Wild West’, this is elimination of free thought,” said Gruevski. “They are spreading bad blood across the whole of our society; a process against people who love their country. This is the last hour to react, to protect the people because justice is on our side, this is the peoples’ struggle of this country, against the junta in power,” emphasized Gruevski.

Mickoski’s statement about the protests at the Criminal Court (Meta)

The next steps that will be taken by VMRO-DPMNE and their followers who are protesting in front of the Criminal Court due to the detention of MPs and participants involved in the violent events at the parliament on 27 April will depend on future developments, said VMRO-DPMNE’s General Secretary, Hristian Mickoski. “We still don’t know and everything depends on how the situation will develop. According to information, at least half of the arrested have given statements in front of a judge and depending on the situation, we shall decide what we shall do further. We have 3-4 scenarios at our disposal, but we shall decide about that later. According to what people from all over Macedonia have told us, a tremendous pressure is put on people not to protest here,” said Mickoski. A large police presence was evident and in front of the court there were around 200 people.

US High Representative Hoyt Brian Yee the new US ambassador to Macedonia (MIA)

US High Representative Hoyt Brian Yee will be the new US ambassador to Macedonia, confirmed the State Department. Hoyt Brian Yee will replace Jess Bailey, who was appointed as the US ambassador to Skopje in December 2014. He is a current deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and European affairs of the US administration in Washington. He is in charge of United States relations with the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe. Prior to his appointment to this post, Yee was Deputy Head of Mission of the US Embassy in Zagreb, Croatia, from 2010 to 2013.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

Li pledges to expand cooperation with Serbia, Slovenia, BiH (Xinhua, 29 November 2017)

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Tuesday pledged to expand cooperation in various fields with Serbia, Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on the sidelines of a meeting of China and 16 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC).

In a meeting with Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic, Li said that under a comprehensive strategic partnership, China and Serbia have achieved fruitful win-win cooperation in many fields. The Hungary-Serbia railway, for instance, has seen a “major progress” on Tuesday with the start of construction from Belgrade to Stara Pazova in Serbia, Li noted. The premier said he hopes the design work for the Novi Sad to Subotica section in Serbia would speed up, so as to complete the flagship project of 16+1 cooperation at an early date and inject impetus into the construction of China-Europe land-sea express line and into regional connectivity. The Hungary-Serbia railway will connect Budapest with Belgrade, with a total length of 350 km, reducing traveling time between the two capitals from eight hours to three hours. Meanwhile, China stands ready to work with Belgrade to push for such infrastructure and industrial cooperation projects as road, steel plant and industrial parks, as well as extend the industrial chain to achieve win-win results, he said. For her part, Brnabic thanked for China’s support for the Serbian economy and called bilateral cooperation results “outstanding” in 16+1 cooperation. The Serbian side is willing to work with Beijing to jointly speed up the construction of the Hungary-Serbia railway and conduct cooperation in such fields as industrial parks, e-commerce and logistics, she said. Belgrade welcomes Chinese firms to take part in its transportation and infrastructure construction, and hopes for the opening of direct flights at an early date to promote tourism and people-to-people exchanges, she added.

On the same day, Li also met with Slovenian Prime Minister Miro Cerar, expressing his hope that both countries would work together to make full use of the 16+1 platform to bolster China-CEEC cooperation and China-EU cooperation. China is satisfied with the rapid growth of bilateral ties, Li said, noting that the two countries have witnessed many outcomes of agricultural, tourism, research cooperation. China is ready to import competitive agricultural products from Slovenia, support more Chinese tourists to go to the Central European country, and help Chinese firms to participate in car manufacturing in Slovenia, and people-to-people exchanges to further expand bilateral cooperation. Cerar, for his part, said the two countries have maintained friendly relations and achieved remarkable progress in economy and trade cooperation. Slovenia is willing to strengthen cooperation in agriculture, automobile, tourism, aviation, scientific research, education and winter sports, increase the added value of their cooperation, and expand cultural and people-to-people exchanges, he said. Slovenia appreciates China’s proposals to promote 16+1 cooperation and stands ready to partner with Beijing to promote CEEC’s or even the EU’s cooperation with China, he added.

Li also met with Denis Zvizdic, BiH Chairman of Council of Ministers. Noting the continuous growth of practical bilateral cooperation, Li said his country would work together with BiH to maintain high-level contact, promote bilateral ties and facilitate cooperation. China eyes to speed up energy cooperation, a pillar of their practical cooperation, and hopes to facilitate such energy projects as power plants, Li said. The two countries should also deepen cooperation in infrastructure, make use of BiH’s location advantage to facilitate cooperation between China and the Balkan region, expand cooperation in agricultural product processing and equipment manufacturing, Li said. Moreover, the two countries should step up cooperation on people-to-people exchanges and tourism, given the opportunity presented by the visa-exempt agreement signed during the 16+1 meeting. Stressing that developing ties with China is a critical part of his country’s diplomacy, Zvizdic said the BiH government attaches great importance to cooperation with China and win-win cooperation under the 16+1 mechanism. The country is ready to implement the consensus reached so far, and push ahead with cooperation in inter-connectivity, transportation infrastructure, power plant, agriculture, tourism, and culture.

Li arrived in Budapest on Sunday for the sixth meeting of heads of government of China and 16 Central and Eastern European countries and an official visit to Hungary.

Address by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson: “The U.S. And Europe: Strengthening Western Alliances” (Wilson Center, 28 November 2017)

Selected Quotes

On U.S.-Europe relations:

“Our security commitments to European allies are ironclad.”

“Over the past 10 months, we have embarked on new strategic policy shifts that bolster European and American security — namely, a recommitment to Europe in the wake of the failed “Russia reset”; a new effort to adapt security institutions to combat emerging threats like terrorism, cyberattacks, and nuclear proliferation; and an expectation that European nations accept they are more secure when they contribute more toward their own defense.”

“Our expenditures are, in some ways, a reflection of how much we seek to protect peace and freedom. We once again urge European partners who have not done so already to meet the two percent of GDP target for defense spending.”

“It’s a recommitment, but it’s also a redefinition of what this alliance means. The message President Trump carried early on when he went to Europe, and received a lot of criticism for it, was to demand of our allies that you care as much about your freedom and you care as much about the security of your people as we care about you.”

On Russia:

“Russia continues its aggressive behavior toward other regional neighbors by interfering in election processes and promoting non-democratic ideals. We, together with our friends in Europe, recognize the active threat of a recently resurgent Russia.”

“In view of Russia’s Zapad military exercises conducted near the borders of Baltic States in September, our ability to respond to an attack in concert with our allies is more important than ever.”

“Russia has often employed malicious tactics against the U.S. and Europe to drive us apart, weaken our confidence, and undermine the political and economic successes that we have achieved together since the end of the Cold War. Playing politics with energy supplies, launching cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns to undermine free elections, and serially harassing and intimidating diplomats are not the behaviors of a responsible nation.”

“Russia can continue to isolate and impoverish itself by sowing disorder abroad and impeding liberty at home, or it can become a force that will advance the freedom of Russians and the stability of Eurasia.”

“We’re working hard [with Russia] in Syria to defeat ISIS and we’re on the cusp of having ISIS once and for all defeated in Syria. We’ve got work yet to do. And we’re working hard with Russia on how to prevent the civil war from re-erupting.”

On Russia/Ukraine: 

“Let me be clear: Minsk-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia reverses the actions that triggered them.”

“We’re never going to get this relationship [with Russia] back to normal unless we solve Ukraine.”

On energy:

“The United States will continue to support European infrastructure projects… to ensure that no country from outside Europe’s Energy Union can use its resources or its position in the global energy market to extort other nations.”

“We continue to view the development of pipelines like Nord Stream 2 and the multi-line Turkstream as unwise, as they only increase market dominance from a single supplier to Europe.”

On the Balkans:

“To the people of the Balkan countries, we say: abandon old animosities so that peace may become permanent. You have a chance to direct a new course of history. Bloodlines should no longer be battle lines.”

“The United States and the world long to see a new generation of Serbs, Croatians, Albanians, Bosnians, Kosovars, and others who will forgive the past, even if they cannot forget it.”

On Iran:

“The JCPOA is no longer the only point of U.S. policy toward Iran. We are committed to addressing the totality of the Iranian threat. We ask our European partners to join us in standing up to all of Iran’s malign behavior.”

On Turkey:

“We ask Turkey, as a NATO ally, to prioritize the common defense of its treaty allies. Iran and Russia cannot offer the Turkish people the economic and political benefits that membership in the Western community of nations can provide.”

On terrorism:

“We must take action so that areas like the Sahel or the Maghreb do not become the next breeding ground for ISIS, al-Qaeda, or other terrorist groups.”

“Our fight is increasingly located on the internet, at passport checkpoints, and in the hearts and minds of young people in Europe and around the globe.”

On Brexit:

“We will not attempt to influence the negotiations, but we urge the EU and UK to move this process forward swiftly and without unnecessary acrimony.”

On the U.S. State Department:

“Part of this was just a reality check; can we really keep this [level of spending] up? And the truth of the matter is it would be very difficult to keep it up and do it well. Secondly, part of this bringing the budget numbers back down is reflective of an expectation that we’re going to have success in some of these conflict areas, getting these conflicts resolved and moving to a different place in terms of the kind of support that we have to give them.”

“There is no hollowing out. These numbers that people are throwing around are just false. They’re wrong.”

On the Arctic:

“The Arctic is important today and it’s going to be increasingly important in the future, particularly as those waterways have opened up. What I can tell you is [that] the United States is behind… We’re behind all the other Arctic nations… We’re late to the game.”

Germany: Keeping an Eye on the Balkans (Geopolitical Futures, by Antonia Colibasanu, 29 November 2017)

Germany’s foreign intelligence agency is increasingly turning its attention to the Balkans, according to a report by German newspaper Berliner Zeitung. The agency, the BND, has not confirmed the story, but the media rarely report on the BND’s work. That they did in this case could indicate that the agency wants the public to know where its focus lies. Either way, the report is consistent with Germany’s broader foreign policy, which has increasingly focused on the Balkans in recent years. Germany is among the top three export destinations for Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo and is one of the top European investors in the region, making Berlin the most important EU partner for the Balkan states.

Over the past few years, Germany has strengthened its relationship with Serbia in particular, although Croatia has historically had the closer ties to Berlin. Germany’s improving relations with Serbia are partly due to the economic links between the two countries. Germany is the second-largest importer of Serbian exports and among the top five investors in Serbia. Serbians themselves recognize the benefits of stronger ties with Berlin. A survey released on Nov. 15 indicated that a third of Serbians think German companies are the most desirable investors, offering good salaries and opportunities for career advancement.

Germany has taken the lead within the EU on relations with the Balkans states. In 2008, when the financial crisis exposed social and political cracks in the union, hopes started to fade of the Balkan states ever joining the bloc. As less EU funding became available to these states, modernization and reform efforts also diminished. Russia was another important source of external funding for the region, but with the onset of the Ukraine crisis, as well Moscow’s own financial problems, it became clear to the Balkan states that they couldn’t depend on Russia for financial support. They thus turned to the EU – and this meant turning to Germany, the de facto leader of the EU. At the time, Germany couldn’t afford another crisis in Europe and thus wanted to maintain some degree of control and stability in the Balkans, often a source of volatility on the Continent. Berlin was already involved in negotiations over Ukraine and had to deal with the eurozone’s banking crisis, which threatened Germany’s own economic stability. It therefore had to take the lead on the EU’s policy toward the Balkans and help the region avoid economic problems that could destabilize these countries and pose a security threat throughout Europe.

In August 2014, Germany established the so-called Berlin Process, a diplomatic initiative to strengthen ties between the Balkan states and the EU. Through this initiative, Germany has made it clear that it sees Serbia as the most important state in the region because of its strategic location. It has put a lot of effort into not only supporting Serbia’s relations with Brussels but also facilitating dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo. In 2017, Germany announced that it would expand the Berlin Process into the Berlin Process Plus, which should increase funding for the region from European countries interested in infrastructure and development projects. Among the planned projects is a highway linking Serbia with Bosnia-Herzegovina and another linking Belgrade to Tirana, Albania, via Pristina, Kosovo.

Germany’s interest in the Balkans and in Serbia has grown since 2015, when the migration crisis hit Europe. The main route for migrants trying to reach Germany was through the Balkans. The northern part of Serbia is flat and especially easy to traverse, making the country a particular concern. In fact, Germany views the Balkan states as a critical component of its security, and it is partly for this reason that Berlin has been an outspoken supporter of their accession into the EU. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said in September that Montenegro and Serbia could join the EU by 2025 – a statement likely influenced by Germany. Germany recognizes that there are obstacles to making that happen, but keeping the Balkan states’ EU hopes alive will encourage them to adopt a more pro-Western, pro-modernization stance.

Interestingly, the report on the BND’s focus on the Balkans was published the same day that German Chancellor Angela Merkel attended an EU-Africa summit focused on migration. The German government’s handling of the migration crisis has increased public support for Germany’s far right. Mainstream parties, including Merkel’s, lost seats to the nationalist Alternative for Germany party in elections in September, and the chancellor has been under pressure to prevent another influx of migrants. Working with non-EU states, such as those in the Balkans, can help block the route to Western Europe and stop another crisis from emerging. The report on the BND may be a signal to the German electorate that Merkel is serious about controlling migration, a key part of which is keeping an eye on the Balkans.

There is another dimension to Germany’s interest in the region. The concept of the Intermarium, an alliance involving countries from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, has been building, and the group’s members in Eastern Europe discussed expanding southwest to the Adriatic Sea by including Austria, Croatia and Slovenia. But adding Croatia and Slovenia to this larger alliance, referred to as the Three Seas Initiative, might anger Serbia, which would be left surrounded by members of a group from which it has been excluded.

Germany understands this very well. By maintaining a close relationship with Serbia, Berlin may be sending a message to the Intermarium’s Eastern European members as well as to the United States, which has supported the alliance, that it is still a powerful European nation and has an interest in Eastern Europe’s future. In a world where the EU and NATO are weakening, Germany needs to act independently to secure its own interests.