LOCAL PRESS
Brnabic and Cerar no Kosovo (Tanjug)
Responding to journalists’ questions at the joint address to the media with Slovenian Prime Minister Miro Cerar, Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said: “What we heard concerning the legally-binding agreement is nothing new, we have heard this in the past as well, President Vucic also spoke about that, Minister Jokismovic also spoke about that…I think that the EP President Tajani unequivocally said that Serbia will not have to recognize independence of Kosovo in order join the EU. It seems this is a clear and unambiguous message,” said Brnabic. “Normalization with Pristina and finding a long-term sustainable relationship with Pristina is an obligation of us politicians who are leading Serbia,” she said. Cerar replied to the same question and said that Slovenia extremely respects and strongly supports every attempt for the resumption of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue and for ensuring stability in this part of the region.
Vucic: Spain’s position logical, agreement on Kosovo does not imply recognition (Tanjug)
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says the decision of the Spanish government to exclude Kosovo from the EU accession talks is logical and that EU Parliament President Antonio Tajani said Wednesday a binding agreement on Kosovo and Metohija does not imply recognition.
Responding to a reporter’s comment that Tajani had said the agreement did not imply independence, Vucic noted Tajani said the agreement did not imply a recognition. “No, he said ‘it doesn’t imply recognition’, if I may say so,” said Vucic, adding there is still not specific form in which this agreement should be signed, and that some countries, for example, insist on the model of former East and West Germany.
Djuric: It is very difficult to say what is the legally-binding document (Tanjug)
The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric has stated there is not something that would be a harmonized legally-binding document, which Belgrade is expected to sign with Pristina on the EU path. “The member states do not have a harmonized stand on this issue,” said Djuric in response to a journalist’s question as to what the legally-binding document implies.
“It is very difficult to say what the legally-binding document is because the EU member states do not have a harmonized stand on this issue. But, if they have it at one moment and when they have it and when they present it to us, we will give our opinion on it,” Djuric told journalists.
Kosovo in EU only as region of Serbia (Novosti)
Spain resolutely opposes any kind of indication of statehood in mentioning Kosovo on its EU path, so that it had sent to top EU officials not only one written objection, as mentioned over the previous days, but several protest documents ahead of the upcoming new enlargement strategy, Novosti has learned at the Spanish Foreign Ministry. “Spain’s position on the non-recognition of the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo is based on the defense of the principles of the territorial integrity of states, respect for international law, and the rule of law,” the Public Relations Office of the Spanish Foreign Ministry told Novosti. The position of Madrid, Novosti learned, is that Kosovo can become a part of the EU only as a separate administration within Serbia. “We have nothing against that territory and its population and we maintain a constructive stand in all forums, primarily inside the EU, as long as certain principles are respected. In that sense, Spain has always supported the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina under EU auspices,” stated the Spanish Foreign Ministry. The situation with Catalonia has permanently reaffirmed Spain’s attitude towards the Kosovo issue. Madrid does not want to hear of any precedents, because that could, among other things, be used by some of its own regions.
Vulin: We expect KFOR role not to reduce (Politika)
Serbian Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin met with the NATO Joint Force Commander in Naples, Admiral James Foggo on Wednesday, the Serbian Defense Ministry announced. “Serbia especially appreciates the role of the NATO Pact through its participation in the KFOR forces, which is an institution of greatest importance and trust for Serbia. That is why Serbia expects that the role and mandate of KFOR will not be reduced, without the establishment of the so-called Kosovo Army, which is unacceptable for Serbia,” Vulin said. “We will continue to intensify our cooperation with the NATO Command in Naples, especially in terms of terrorist threats in our region,” added Vulin.
Admiral Foggo: I am not worried for stability in Kosovo and Metohija (RTS)
NATO Joint Force Commander in Naples, Admiral James Foggo, has said in an interview for Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS) that NATO respects Serbia’s neutrality and its political and military ties with Russia. He says there are no conflicts between Serbia’s interests and NATO. “We are in the Partnership for Peace and this is excellent,” says Foggo, adding that NATO is clearly expressing the desire for expanding in the region. He underlines that it is written in the Statue of the Alliance that an attack on one member state is an attack on all members. “Still, the NATO Mission is first of all defense and prevention of conflicts. Admission of Montenegro contributed to security of borders in the region,” says Foggo. Asked whether NATO was sufficiently performing its job when it comes to security in Kosovo and Metohija and the region, Foggo responds that more than 4,000 KFOR soldiers are doing extremely well to preserve security. “First the Kosovo police, then EULEX and KFOR, are in charge for this security. Their task is to prevent instability and violence,” said Foggo. “The assassination of Oliver Ivanovic is a crime and the perpetrators should be tried. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic significantly calmed down the situation after that by going to Kosovo. This also contributed to the determination for continuing the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. The State Department occasionally issues security warnings for other part of the world as well. I am not concerned for stability in Kosovo. I am going there tomorrow,” concluded Foggo.
REGIONAL PRESS
B&H HoR rejects both HDZ B&H’s and SDA’s proposals of amendments to Election Law of B&H (FTV)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) House of Representatives (HoR) rejected on Wednesday both of the existing proposals of changes to the Law on Elections of B&H, i.e. the one proposed by the Croat People’s Assembly (HNS) and SDA. The reporter reminded that B&H House of Peoples (HoP) adopted the HNS’ proposal in July without votes of Bosniaks and noted that representatives of HDZ B&H, HDZ 1990 and SNSD in B&H HoR voted for this proposal at the session of B&H HoR on Wednesday. At the same time, only representatives of SDA supported SDA’s proposal. Representative Nikola Spiric (SNSD) said that SNSD voted for HNS’ proposal not because of HDZ B&H but, among other things, in order to improve the status of Serbs who live in the Federation of B&H. The Alliance for Changes (SzP) voted against both proposals and urged HDZ B&H to finally solve the status of Serbs as the constituent people in four cantons of the Federation of B&H.
Representative Aleksandra Pandurevic (SDS) said that it is not her intention to dispute legitimacy of Serbs from SDP but they should not dispute legitimacy of Zeljko Komsic (DF) as a Croat.
Speaker of B&H HoR Borjana Kristo (HDZ B&H) said that if there is an intention to accept B&H as the state of three constituent peoples, then the peoples must have equal rights both in line with the Constitution and the Law on Elections of B&H. “If there is willingness to accept decisions of the Constitutional Court, then principles are clear and a solution can be easily reached”, Kristo added. The reporter noted that SDA is of the view that an agreement on at least minimal changes to the Law on Elections of B&H, which would enable implementation of the decision of the Constitutional Court of B&H upon the motion of Bozo Ljubic is necessary.
Deputy Speaker of B&H HoR Sefik Dzaferovic (SDA) said he thinks that the international community should react in case no agreement can be reached because “I think that the international community, primarily the Office of the High Representative (OHR), has the obligation to intervene in such situations,” Dzaferovic said and added that this would remove any dilemma about implementation of election results.
Covic not surprised with the outcome of the voting on changes to Law on Elections, Bosniak parties’ tactics is to change nothing (Fena)
Chairman of the B&H Presidency and President of HDZ B&H Dragan Covic stated that he is not surprised with the outcome of voting on proposals of changes to the Law on Elections of B&H in the B&H House of Representatives. Covic told that ‘we’ will present ‘our’ proposals and try to reach a compromise, stressing that the Bosniak parties’ tactics is to change nothing and “to play the card of cosmetic changes”, in essence to have the elections in the current environment. “That would be the worst solution. Our minimum is to secure that constituent peoples can elect legitimate representatives into the Presidency and the House of Peoples”, said Covic.
Ivanic, Cormack discuss political situation, Election Law (Oslobodjenje)
Member of the B&H Presidency Mladen Ivanic and US Ambassador to B&H Maureen Cormack discussed on Wednesday the current political situation in the country and the region. Statement issued by the Presidency of B&H reads that Ivanic and Cormack also talked about the Election Law of B&H and preparations for the upcoming general elections in October. Daily reported that Ivanic also held a meeting with Palestinian Ambassador to B&H Rezeq Namoora, who expressed hope that B&H will support Palestinian efforts to resolve the crisis in the Gaza Strip. Ivanic and Namoora also agreed that there is a room for improvement of economic cooperation between B&H and Palestine.
Zvizdic: All answers to EC’s Questionnaire harmonized (BHT1)
Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers (B&H CoM) Denis Zvizdic stated in Sarajevo on Wednesday that all answers to the European Commission’s (EC) Questionnaire are ready and harmonized within the Coordination Mechanism. However, the answers are yet to be verified, which is expected to be completed in the next several days, he added. After that, the answers in English will have to be reviewed and verified in accordance with the EC’s requirements. “Within this verification, all those participating in process of Coordination Mechanism, which is very complex – I think it is the most complex in the entire EU and maybe even on the planet – come to the verification through consensus in these answers. This will be completed in next few days,” said Zvizdic. The CoM Chairman commented on the fact that B&H Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations Mirko Sarovic warned on Tuesday that the EC’s Questionnaire has not been completed, primarily in the chapters related to regional cooperation. In this regard, the CoM Chairman noted that Sarovic only provided information about what was reported about at Tuesday’s session of the CoM. DF’s representative in B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Damir Becirovic assessed that there is obviously a problem and that answers to all questions have not been provided. According to Becirovic, there is an issue in harmonization when it comes to the number of residents of B&H.
Reporter noted that Chairman of B&H Presidency Dragan Covic also claims that questions to the EC’s Questionnaire have not been harmonized.
18 members of B&H House of Representatives (HoR) signed a letter and addressed it to the EU’s officials, warning about use of unconstitutional data on population census in answers to the European Commission’s Questionnaire.
Izetbegovic: Vucic demanded from me to respect the Inter-Entity Boundary Line and borders of RS (RTRS)
Bosniak member of the B&H Presidency and SDA leader Bakir Izetbegovic, asked to comment on his meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, said that he believes the meeting in Turkey was arranged by Erdogan and Vucic during Erdogan’s recent visit to Serbia. Izetbegovic explained that he received the invitation to the meeting where they were supposed to discuss primarily the relations between Bosniaks and Serbs and the construction of Sarajevo-Belgrade motorway. According to Izetbegovic, he and Vucic were unable to reach an agreement regarding possible route, at which point Erdogan told them that Turkey is willing to construct two motorways. He argued that those two sections of the motorway would form a ring from Sarajevo to Belgrade but it would also connect B&H with Sandzak but also with Kosovo, Macedonia and Turkey. Izetbegovic claims that Vucic demanded from him to respect the Inter-Entity Boundary Line (IEBL) and borders of Republika Srpska (RS). “I was a bit surprised by that because I am not a man who does not recognize constitution of B&H as it was created in Dayton. I am not the enemy of Serbs. Of course, I defend the position of B&H and its sovereignty like I did recently in Belgrade. I defend my people in B&H and their equality, as well as territorial integrity and sovereignty of this country and nothing more. I have nothing against Serbs. On the contrary, I have many Serb friends from childhood and youth,” Izetbegovic said. He pointed out that he and Vucic also discussed how to relax the relations between Bosniaks and Serbs. Izetbegovic argued that Vucic admitted his mistakes from the past and Vucic can do a lot to improve the relations between Bosniaks and Serbs.
Ivantsov announced a visit of the delegation of the Russian Duma to Banja Luka and Sarajevo (Nezavisne)
Speaker of the Republika Srpska (RS) Assembly Nedeljko Cubrilovic met with Russian Ambassador to B&H Petr Ivantsov on Wednesday in Banja Luka and discussed the stability of the institutions of the RS, underlining they are functioning without any obstacles in accordance with the Constitution of the RS. Cubrilovic underlined that the RS Assembly is dedicated to respecting the Dayton Peace Agreement, and that it is adopting reform laws in order to create more favorable environment for development of the RS and progress in the process of the EU integration. Ivantsov announced a visit of the delegation of the Russian Duma to Banja Luka and Sarajevo in April. The Ambassador also met with RS President Milorad Dodik who said that the RS is maintaining political and economic stability. He also added that the RS has been achieving economic progress, which can be seen in all the reports. Ivantsov met with RS Minister of Interior Dragan Lukac, and the two officials agreed it is necessary to further develop cooperation between the RS and Russia.
Canton 10 Assembly adopts Declaration denying ICTY’s verdict in case ‘Prlic et al.’ (TV1/N1)
The Assembly of Canton 10 adopted on Monday the Declaration denying the ICTY’s verdict in the case of ‘Jadranko Prlic et al.’ Namely, the Declaration refers to the ICTY convicts in this case, qualification of the Joint Criminal Enterprise (JCE) and the act of suicide of convicted Slobodan Praljak. This Declaration was included into the Assembly’s agenda at the Croat Caucus’ proposal. According to the Declaration, Croat representatives in the Canton 10 Assembly emphasize that Croat Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia was not established with the intention to separate but rather to defend Croat areas. The Declaration also reads that the ICTY’s decisions have shown that this court does not care about peace or truth. It further states that Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) are used to being persecuted and humiliated. Due to the Declaration, the Bosniak Caucus in the Canton 10 Assembly has invoked the mechanism for protection of Vital National Interest (VNI) with the Federation of B&H Constitutional Court (CC).
The Office of the High Representative (OHR) called for respect of the decision of the ICTY and to refrain from politicking.
EU Special Representative (EUSR) and Head of the EU Delegation (EUD) to B&H Lars-Gunnar Wigemark underscored that verdicts must be respected.
The Office of the Public Affairs of the US Embassy to B&H told N1 that support to convicted war criminals is unacceptable. The US Embassy also stated: “It is unacceptable to base political platforms on verdicts that refer to individuals who are convicted for serious crimes. Support to convicted war criminals undermines the principle of legality and international order and in no way, this contributes to meeting interests of citizens of B&H, who deserve justice and reconciliation from their political leaders”.
Speaker of B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Borjana Kristo (HDZ B&H) said that resolutions and declarations have become a trend due to the overall situation in B&H.
SDP B&H’s representative in B&H HoR Sasa Magazinovic considers that disregard for decisions of international courts represents “political madness”.
SDA delegates in the Assembly characterized the Declaration as scandalous, saying that this document contains many accusations at expense of the Bosniak people and open threats of destabilization of B&H. President of the SDA Cantonal Board Sead Hadzijahic argued that the Declaration sends inappropriate messages, such as the one that Bosniaks strive for a Caliphate in the heart of Europe.
Possible consequences because of failure to cooperate with EUROPOL (Oslobodjenje)
B&H Minister of Security Dragan Mektic met with Head of Unit for Albania and B&H in the Directorate General for Neighborhood and Enlargement Negotiations Michela Matuella on Wednesday. Mateulla expressed her concern over the deadlock in implementation of the operative agreement between B&H and the EUROPOL, underlining that the implementation of the agreement represents a significant step forward for B&H in the process of establishment of the rule of law. Mektic stated he will do everything in his power to prevent suspension of the agreement, because that would lead to many negative consequences for B&H, as the country would become the only country without established full cooperation with the EUROPOL. “That cooperation is very important to us in fight against terrorism, extremism, organized crime and corruption. Unfortunately, we are the only country in the region that failed to send its liaison officer to the EUROPOL headquarters in The Hague,” said Mektic. Matuella also presented the plan of activities the European Commission is planning in the upcoming period related to the rule of law.
Court of B&H confirms indictment against four members of Vlasenica Brigade for Srebrenica genocide (BHT1)
The B&H Court confirmed on Wednesday the indictment against four former members of the Vlasenica Brigade of the Republika Srpska (RS) Army Mile Kosoric, Borislav Stojisic, Momcilo Tesic and Rajko Drakulic, who are charged with genocide in Srebrenica in 1995. According to the indictment, they were helping the participants in the joint criminal enterprise aimed at apprehension and execution of Bosniak men from Srebrenica, as well as forced displacement of women, children and elderly, from July 6 to July 19, 1995. They are also charged with unlawful apprehension and execution of 21 Bosniak men, as well as robbery of a convoy transporting civilians after the defeat of Srebrenica. Besides, they are charged with having raped women and girls who were taken out of the convoy. Stojisic and Drakulic are unavailable to law enforcement bodies, given the fact that they are currently in other countries.
Eleven Bosnian Croats indicted for war crimes in Mostar area (Hina)
The B&H Court has upheld the indictment against 11 former members of the Croatian Defense Council (HVO) for war crimes against Bosniaks, committed as part of a joint criminal enterprise in the Mostar area in 1993 and 1994, the news website Dnevnik.ba said on Wednesday.
The accused are charged with involvement in widespread and systematic HVO attacks on Bosniak civilians with aim of expelling them from Croat controlled territory. They were involved in an attack in which more than 70 Bosniak civilians were illegally arrested and taken to the Vojno camp outside Mostar where the prisoners were subjected to torture and humiliation.
Croatian Prime Minister criticizes Serbia’s behavior (Hina)
By staging its exhibition about the Ustasha-run Jasenovac camp in New York, Serbia attempted to make associations between the (1941-1945) Independent State of Croatia (NDH) and the present-day Croatia, and the Croatian government will never allow that, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said at the beginning of his cabinet’s meeting in Zagreb on Thursday. At the beginning of the meeting, the Prime Minister gave an overview of significant events in the period since the previous session, however, he made no mention of the announced visit of Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic to Croatia whom Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic invited to come to Zagreb in mid-February. Plenkovic again criticized Belgrade for trying to instrumentalise the topic of the Jasenovac camp victims when staging the exhibition in New York on the occasion of Holocaust Remembrance Day. He said that with the exhibition, Belgrade tried to make associations between the present day Croatia and the NDH. “We all know that the present-day Croatia is founded on absolutely other values.” This has been evidenced by Croatia’s Constitution and the Homeland Defense War and we will not let any instrumentalisation that would depict Croatia negatively, Plenkovic added. “We will articulate this position to our neighbors and the international community.”
The United Nations, where Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic recently officially opened the exhibition, has distanced itself from the content of the exhibition. The UN has said that the content of the exhibition is the organizers’ responsibility and that its staging on UN premises does not imply acceptance by the UN.
Croatian government wants to deal with open issues with Serbia (Hina)
The Croatian government wants to deal with outstanding issues with Serbia, as indicated by a meeting of the Croatia-Serbia committee on minority protection, the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs said in a statement on Wednesday. While members of the Croatian parliament from all political parties on Wednesday commented on the sudden invitation by Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to pay an official visit to Croatia in mid-February, after relations between the two countries have become seriously strained again, and they were agreed that dialogue and better relations were necessary.
Orav: We want to see Montenegro in the EU (CDM)
The EU wants to see Montenegro in the EU, said the head of the EU Delegation to Montenegro Aivo Orav. He believes that the EU has certain work to do in Montenegro as a candidate country. He mentioned 2025 as a possible date for our country’s EU membership. According to Orav, nobody said Montenegro and Serbia had to join the EU together. “The best way to prepare is to do your homework in terms of closing negotiation chapters and in terms of the key elements of the fight against corruption, freedom of the media, the rule of law, to do your homework well and then contact us and say we are ready,” he said.
Djukanovic invited to Trump’s National Prayer Breakfast (Pobjeda)
DPS leader Milo Djukanovic is invited to US President Donald Trump’s National Prayer Breakfast, on 8 February. Apart from Djukanovic, also invited to attend the traditional event are the speaker of the parliament and his deputy, Ivan Brajovic and Branimir Gvozdenovic, MP Aleksandar Damjanovic, Employment Bureau’s director Suljo Mustafic, former National Parks’ director Uros Andrijasevic as well as businessmen Marko Carevic and Rade Ljumovic. The event will be attended by 3,500 guests from more than 100 countries.
Nimetz: After Athens, I expect good discussions in Skopje (MIA)
We had good meetings in Athens. We are hoping to have good ones as well in here. I look forward to the meetings at the government and with the other leaders, said the UN’s mediator, Matthew Nimetz after his arrival in Skopje. The meetings between Nimetz with the Macedonian political leadership are set for today. As was announced, Nimetz will be meeting with the Head of the Macedonian diplomacy, Nikola Dimitrov, the President of the country, Gjorge Ivanov, Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and the party leaders of DUI and VMRO-DPMNE, Ali Ahmeti and Hristijan Mickoski. An official statement about the visit and the results from the talks in Skopje with mediator Nimetz, according to the announcement issued by MFA, will be given by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikola Dimitrov, after the meetings.
Self-proclaimed ‘patriotic’ associations stage protest, call on UN name mediator to resign (MIA)
Several civic associations labeling themselves as ‘patriotic’ stage a protest Wednesday in front of the parliament building in Skopje, calling on UN name mediator Matthew Nimetz to resign. The UN mediator in Skopje-Athens name negotiations has arrived to Macedonia’s capital for talks with state officials. The protesters also demanded for Nimetz to distance himself from the shameful, undignified proposals for renaming Macedonia, as ‘the people of Macedonia will not accept such solutions’. They view the name issue as an imposed, asymmetrical and absurd matter. The protesters urged Nimetz to submit a report to the United Nations, saying that the people of Macedonia wish for his irrevocable resignation, as well as for the country to be admitted to the UN under its constitutional name.
Donald Lu message to politicians, police and prosecutors (ADN)
January is already over and the ‘big fish’ of Albania are still free. The US Ambassador to Tirana, Doland Lu, who was very confident earlier that the judicial reform and implementation of the vetting law would be successful and there would be many arrests in January this year, reacted on Wednesday saying that there should be results before this spring. “To the Politicians, Police, and Prosecutors: You made promises to the Albanian people and to us. We invested the resources to help you fight organized crime and corruption. Where are your results? The Albanian people want an end to impunity. The international community wants concrete results before big decisions this spring. Tick-tock,” reacted Lu.
Denmark supports Albania’s European integration (ADN)
Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Ditmir Bushati, held a meeting on Wednesday with his counterpart of the Kingdom of Denmark, Anders Samuelsen. The main topics of the discussion were the process of European integration for Albania, the dynamics of bilateral relations, regional cooperation and European security issues and beyond. Minister Samuelsen, confirmed during this meeting Denmark’s support for the European perspective of the Western Balkans and praising the work done, said that the European Commission is the best institution to assess progress and that Denmark will support the European Commission’s recommendation in its report on Albania in April. During his visit in Denmark, Bushati had a meeting even with the Permanent Under-Secretary of the Prime Minister, Michael Starbaek Christensen, during which were discussed issues of bilateral co-operation and European integration. Right after that he held another meeting with representatives of the Committee on European Affairs and Foreign Policy in the Danish Parliament. During the meeting, opinions were exchanged regarding the European perspective of Albania.
INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES
EU to map out membership path for western Balkan six (Financial Times, by Michael Peel in Brussels and Neil Buckley in London, 1 February 2018)
2025 target for Albania and former Yugoslav nations to join bloc
The EU will hold out the prospect of membership to six western Balkan countries by 2025 as it seeks to breathe new life into enlargement of the bloc, strengthen controls on migration, and counter Russian influence in the volatile region. A European Commission paper to be published on Tuesday setting the target for what would be the bloc’s biggest single expansion in two decades may go down badly with some existing EU members wary of further enlargement.
But European diplomats say the ambitious timeline, albeit one that is more motivational than realistic, is crucial to tighten the embrace between Brussels and nations that emerged from the collapse of Yugoslavia, plus neighbouring Albania. The prospect of future membership, however distant, has long been a spur for reform and reconciliation in the region after the Balkan wars of the 1990s. But “enlargement fatigue” after the 2008 financial crisis and eurozone debt problems — and the vote by the UK to leave the EU, previously a proponent of expanding the union — have cast doubt on that prospect. “In a way, [the six] are not outsiders, they are already inside, and we need them,” said one pro-enlargement EU diplomat. “That’s why we need to re-energise the enlargement process, without providing any short-cuts.” He stressed that the 2025 target was indicative and subject to change. The commission is also expected to call on the western Balkans six to resolve outstanding bilateral disputes and tackle corruption, in recognition of problems that have dogged other new members in the past decade. Serbia and Montenegro, which have already begun EU accession talks, are viewed as the two most likely western Balkan aspirants to make the 2025 milestone, ahead of Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo.
The enlargement push is an attempt to deliver on a pledge made in September by Jean-Claude Juncker, commission president, to expand the 28-member union after Britain leaves. Mr Juncker is expected to tour the western Balkans next month to start the run-in to a summit dedicated to the region in Sofia in May. The EU launched accession talks with Montenegro in 2012 and with Serbia two years later, while Macedonia and Albania are awaiting commission recommendations to start negotiations to join. Mr Juncker said in November that he expected Serbia and Montenegro to be EU members by 2025. The western Balkans have loomed ever larger for the EU as one of the main migration routes that helped trigger a crisis in 2015-16, when more than 2.5m people sought asylum in the bloc. EU strategists also fear that Russia is expanding influence in a region where it has traditional allies. Moscow has started to play on growing cynicism over the EU’s membership promises by touting itself as an alternative partner.
“A significant number of citizens of the region believe they will never join the EU,” said Florian Bieber, a south-east Europe specialist at the university of Graz. “People have kind of given up on it to a large degree.” But Mr Bieber said there was a chance that the EU strategy paper, followed by the Sofia summit, could start to convince the western Balkans states that hopes for future membership still remained. Unusually, both Bulgaria, which holds the rotating EU presidency in the first half of this year, and Austria, which will follow it in the second six months, have made the region a priority. While many EU member states, including newer central and eastern European joiners, are pro-enlargement, the western Balkans territories may run into opposition from some powerful countries. Spain has historically refused to recognise Kosovo, the breakaway former Serbian province, as an independent state because of worries about the potential implications for the status of Catalonia. EU enlargement must also be conditional on new members resolving bilateral problems, European diplomats say, pointing to the destabilising impact of the border dispute between union members Croatia and Slovenia. Greece has for decades opposed the use of the name Macedonia, which the country took when it declared independence from Yugoslavia in 1991. The commission will also task the western Balkans six to tackle corruption, after problems led to both Romania and Bulgaria being placed under special monitoring when they joined the EU in 2007. Brussels last week raised concerns about the threat to judicial independence and the fight against corruption in Romania.
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