LOCAL PRESS

Dacic, Scott raise Serbian flag (Beta)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic and US Ambassador to Serbia Kyle Scott raised the Serbian flag at the ambassadorial residence in Belgrade in honor of the anniversary of the day when the Serbian flag was raised on the White House one hundred years ago, on July 28, 1918, as the first foreign flag to be flown from the White House. Dacic said Washington and Belgrade had been remembering their alliance and paving the way for further partnership ties in the past few days. “You have a reliable partner in our country, but it is our desire to be allies like one hundred years ago,” Dacic said. Dacic said the US policy toward Serbia and Kosovo had been on “autopilot”, but that this had changed when Wess Mitchell took office as the assistant US secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia. “They firmly support dialog and our efforts to reach a

compromise. That is a big change. It means that the door has opened to seeking a new compromise solution for which the US was not ready in previous years, believing the issue closed,” Dacic said, adding that the support of the US, like several large EU countries, were giving impetus to a successful wrap-up of the dialogue with Pristina. Dacic said Pristina’s policy as it had been conducted to date had failed and that Serbia had never had a better standing in relations with the great powers. He also stressed that there was no chance for the negotiations to end with Kosovo getting a chair in the UN or with it being recognized as a state. Ambassador Scott said the solution for Kosovo needed to be reached through dialogue and that Washington was ready to consider any deal between Belgrade and Pristina.

Dacic: Who says Kosovo will receive UN membership? (Tanjug)

On the occasion of Vuk Jeremic’s initiative to launch the collection of signatures for preventing Kosovo from UN membership, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic has wondered who had said that this would occur. “I see that Jeremic launched the collection of signatures. During Tadic and Jeremic more than 80 countries recognized Kosovo. Why these signatures now? Six countries withdrew recognition during my mandate, so let’s see who needs and why to collect signatures,” Dacic told journalists. He says there can be objections to President Vucic and him, just as any other person, regarding many things, but not that they are not paying attention to national and state interests. “Recognition of independence of Kosovo’s UN membership has never been on the agenda,” said Dacic, reiterating that Serbia wants a lasting solution. Asked whether Russia will join the dialogue with Pristina, Dacic says that the format will remain as it is and that it will not expand. “There are no plans,” says Dacic, pointing there is no need for the US to join because they support the dialogue that leads to the EU. He reminds that Russia had presented the stand that it will join the dialogue process if somebody requests this.

Djuric: We don’t have any offers for Kosovo (B92/Prva TV)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric spoke on Monday morning for Prva TV about the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. “Most Western countries think that the issue of Kosovo is a rounded off story. We are talking both with the Russians and with the Americans and with the Chinese and with everyone who has the idea of ​​a compromise solution,” said Djuric. He added that there is still no solution for the issue of Kosovo, and that when one is in sight, the citizens of Serbia will be informed about it. “For me as a citizen and the Head of the KiM Office, the most important thing is that we chose to jointly decide on the issue of Kosovo. At the moment we do not have any offers, but once we do the citizens will be informed. Any solution we’ll have, we will share with the citizens,” Djuric said. “I notice that the Albanians are nervous, they still think they live in 1999. That pressure can be put on Serbia – yet the situation has changed dramatically,” he said. “There are many fights and conflicts between Thaci and Haradinaj. For 18 years they have had under control of a part of our territory. They administer Kosovo in a clan-like fashion, they divided up parts of our southern province in a feudal manner. They rely on ingratiating themselves to the international community in order to keep that control,” said Djuric.

Djuric: Visits of Pristina officials only if they refer to agreements on visits (Novosti)

Officials from Pristina can visit Serbia proper if they refer to agreements on visits and under condition that their post exists according to international regulations, said the Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric. “All officials that exist according to international regulations can freely refer to the agreements on visits and to move on the territory of their country. However, the so-called foreign minister or so-called minister of Kosovo security forces are not this, because the southern province does not have these kinds of posts. The others will not have any kind of problems,” Djuric told Novosti. Asked whether UNSCR 1244 will remain in force if Belgrade and Pristina reach agreement, Djuric says that without agreement with Serbia, they cannot affirm their position in the international community. “With the approach they have presently, the UN will remain only an imaginable noun for them,” said Djuric.

Chinese Ambassador: No deadlines for Kosovo, Chian waited 100 years to resolve Hong Kong (RTS)

Chinese Ambassador to Serbia Li Manchang has told RTS that the resolution of the Kosovo issue is most important for Serbia and its territorial integrity and thinks that deadlines should not be set for the resolution of such a big issue. “This is my personal opinion, it is not official. When it comes to the Kosovo issue, this refers to sovereignty, territorial integrity of Serbia, this is the most important issue for one country, government and nation,” the Chinese Ambassador told RTS. He says that present China is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council but still hasn’t resolved its own problem, the province of Taiwan. “For this kind of large issue, one should not allow for it to be resolve for only several months. Naturally, if Belgrade and Pristina agree in ten days, I support, welcome,” said Li.

Moscow reacts to Putin, Trump, and Kosovo story: Lies (B92/Tanjug)

Russian and US leaders Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump did not reach any agreement regarding Kosovo during their recent summit in Helsinki. All reports to the contrary constitute complete misinformation, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said in a comment published on Friday. “We have noted lengthy Russian media stories based on Kosovo’s Gazeta Express publication,” the comment said, and added: “Citing ‘diplomatic sources’, this publication claims that, during the July 16 Russian-US summit held in Helsinki, the president of the United States allegedly agreed to proposals (that had reportedly been discussed) that Belgrade would recognize the independence of Kosovo if Serbia retains the northern territories where ethnic Serbs live.” “We are stating with all responsibility that, just like other latest media conjectures around certain special agreements reportedly reached in Helsinki, this is absolute misinformation,” the Russian ministry announced. “All matters regarding the final status of Kosovo should be resolved on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 1244. In this context, Belgrade and Pristina agreed to conduct direct dialogue with the mediation of the European Union. Russia consistently supports this negotiating process, insists that all agreements reached during this process be fulfilled, and it will never try and discuss this subject behind both sides’ backs,” the comment said. “We are urging the media community to refrain from outright speculations on the existence of alleged covert agreements between Moscow and Washington. One should not pander to a highly dangerous trend aiming to destabilize Russian-US relations on whose state international security now largely depends. Nor should one incite tension in such a complicated region as the Balkans,” the Russian MFA said.

Jeremic: Vucic plans extraordinary elections and referendum (Nasa TV)

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic planned to call a referendum on Kosovo together with extraordinary Parliamentary elections on 4 November, the leader of People’s Party (NS) Vuk Jeremic said for Nasa TV on Saturday. “The West needs Serbia’s signature on an agreement that

would enable Pristina a seat in the UN. Vucic plans to finish the talks on the agreement and then say that ‘the paper will be signed if Serbian Progressive Party wins’. He is exclusively interested in another four years in power and he is ready to give up on Kosovo for that goal,” Jeremic said.

He emphasized that the referendum would not be so important for Vucic, because it would “certainly be completely manipulated” and the referendum issue could be something like “are you for peace or war” or “do you agree with the compromise solution for Kosovo that would enable peace and stability in the region”. “Powerful regime propaganda machine would present the surrender of Kosovo as a victory of peace and anyone against it would support war. There is no a bigger lie than this. Serbia is not threatened by any war, it is just Vucic who is threatened by loss of support of the West if he should not fulfill what he has promised,” Jeremic stated.

REGIONAL PRESS

Dodik: Issue of status of Kosovo should not be separated from issue of status of RS (RTRS)

Republika Srpska (RS) Milorad Dodik stressed that the issue of the status of Kosovo should not be separated from the issue of the status of the RS, once again concluding that the RS and Serbia will welcome a century in state unity. Dodik underlined that the RS and its officials are doing what they can when it comes to the issue of the status of Kosovo. “First of all, we said that we do not recognize Kosovo and that it will not be recognized within B&H… Muslims want that. They would recognize Kosovo right away. But, if we were to mention the RS, they would be ready to take rifles (into their hands), which shows that they are two-faced and cynical. If you want to recognize a state in Kosovo to the Albanians, then you should recognize the RS as a state,” Dodik stressed. Dodik warned that the RS cannot lose any more competences, adding that, on the other hand, the RS needs to strengthen its autonomy. Dodik said that the Serbian national issue is very complex, referring to the issue of “Kosovo and Metohija”. “Our stance is that this issue should not be separated from the status of the RS. I have publicly asked Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic himself to raise this issue several times. There should be no double standards for Serbs,” Dodik stressed.

OHR, US Embassy say postponing of adoption of changes to B&H Law on Criminal Procedure is unacceptable (N1)

The Office of the High Representative (OHR) and the US Embassy to B&H jointly reacted to a decision of B&H Parliament to postpone adoption of changes to B&H Law on Criminal Procedure. According to the OHR and the Embassy, certain political parties in B&H HoP decided to jeopardize fight against organized crime, corruption, terrorism and other forms of severe crime. The statement reads: “Instead of adoption of amendments to the Law on Criminal Procedure that would have allowed police, prosecutors and judges to efficiently investigate, indict, and convict criminals, the HoP postponed the decision-making process, although the state Parliament has long missed the deadline established by the Constitutional Court. This is unacceptable; in particular as the amendments – which the HoR has already approved – are in line with international standards, and were drafted by a B&H expert working group, and not by politicians”. RS President Milorad Dodik has reacted to the criticism coming from the OHR and the US Embassy to B&H. “I dismiss any kind of story we had an opportunity to hear from the High Representative, who is not doing anything except for making the situation more complicated, who is interfering again and saying that SNSD is allegedly responsible for the failure in adoption of the Law on Criminal Procedure,” Dodik said. “We have been saying for 20 years that they are thieves who imposed the Law on the Court and the Prosecutor’s Office on us. Let them form their own group of MPs. They had the Alliance for Changes. Anyone who puts themselves at disposal of foreigners ends up being a loser,” Dodik was quoted as saying.

RS ruling coalition discusses migrant crisis, political and financial situation in RS, upcoming general elections in B&H (ATV)

Leaders of the SNSD-DNS-SP RS ruling coalition met on Saturday. They discussed the migrant crisis, the political and financial situation in Republika Srpska (RS) and the upcoming general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The leaders announced that the RS will form an operational body that will control the movement of migrants via the RS. RS President and SNSD leader Milorad Dodik stated that this body will include police structures, civil protection services and local communities. He noted that the only thing the migrants can in the RS is food, assessing that it is quite indicative that migrant centers are being built in the Federation of B&H areas where Serbs have lived. Dodik concluded that the goal is to permanently populate these areas with migrants and to ethnically cleanse that territory from Serbs. “Europe should not speak about humanity since it has secured itself very well with closed borders. If they want humanity, they should open their borders and accept migrants in order to show their humanity. We have responsibility towards our people here and the RS will not be a collective center for migrants”, Dodik asserted. DNS leader Marko Pavic also stated that the RS cannot accept migrants in its territory as it still copes with its own refugees who have arrived from the Federation of B&H and Croatia long time ago. He reminded that the RS still has many soup kitchens in many municipalities where the RS refugees are beneficiaries, and it has no capacities to take care of migrants.  The leaders assessed that political and financial situation in the RS is stable and reminded of important infrastructural projects that have been implemented in the past four years and projects that are yet to be realized. They said that of all previous elections, the RS welcomes the upcoming general elections in October with the most stable situation. Dodik stressed that he sure the coalition, its candidates and lists will win the general elections, reminding that all the polls indicate that.

Dodik says SIPA should be disbanded (TV1)

Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik stated on Friday that he would gladly disband the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). Dodik stressed that SIPA was “imposed outside the Constitution by the will of some foreigners”, adding that SIPA’s work did not prove to be objective. “It (SIPA) serves for political showdowns in B&H and it should be disbanded the first opportunity we get” Dodik underlined.

Grabar-Kitarovic: B&H should be treated as sui generis case (N1)

Discussions on the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and relations within B&H do not stop, as Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic said that B&H should be treated in a special way, while Brussels said that the solution must be found within the country.

In a statement given to Deutsche Welle, Grabar-Kitarovic said that she informed colleagues in the EU and the NATO that everyone is slowly giving up on B&H. According to Grabar-Kitarovic, B&H should be treated as a “sui generis” case and integrated within the EU, regardless of the process of realization of reforms. She reminded that changes to B&H Election Law did not happen and expressed hope that the Election Law will not be changed prior to the elections in a rapid way. Commenting on Grabar-Kitarovic’ statement that everyone gave up on B&H, leader of DF Zeljko Komsic reacted by saying that B&H will defend itself from attacks. Komsic said: “Maybe Grabar-Kitarovic is right. Maybe we are left on our own, but she should know that we will defend from their hands. Citizens of B&H know very well how it looks like when ‘friendly Croatian hand lays to their chests”. SDP B&H MP Damir Masic characterized the statement as insolent saying that this does not go in favor of good neighborly relations. Masic reiterated that the proposal of the law on constituencies and the number of mandates in the Federation of B&H Parliament is in line with all laws, recommendations and rules. Masic added that the fact that HDZ B&H and Croatian HDZ do not like some things in political sense of the word, is their own problem. European Commissioner for Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn stated that on its way to the EU, B&H will have to change its structure, especially the tripartite divisions. According to announcements, B&H is expected to answer to follow-up questions in the upcoming month.

“Croatia and Russia have solid foundations for development of relations” (Hina)

Croatia and Russia have resolved several important issues since last October, Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic said in interview with the HRT. Grabar-Kitarovic paid an official visit to Russia in October 2017, meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. They also met on the margins of the football World Cup, which ended earlier this month. Grabar-Kitarovic confirmed that the two sides were discussing Putin’s reciprocal visit to Croatia, which will depend on the schedules of both presidents, but stressed that the visit was not in question. “It will happen when we agree the agenda and timetable.” Speaking of Russia as a global power, she said that Croatia supported the two-track approach by the European Union and NATO, which insist on respect for international law, including the national sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of any state, while at the same time taking account of the fact that burning global issues, such as the Syria crisis, which is also affecting Croatia through the migrant crisis, cannot be solved without Russia. “Russia is also an important player in Southeast Europe, and what is important to me is to ensure that the Russian Federation fully supports the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its European path,” the Croatian president said. Grabar-Kitarovic said that Croatia wants to do what’s best for its economy, which is partly affected by the existing sanctions against Russia, adding that Croatia should find those products that can be exported outside the sanctions regime.

Zaev: Opposition to engage and call citizens to vote at referendum (MIA)

Prime Minister Zoran Zaev expects support from MPs of the ruling majority over the referendum initiative, reiterating that September 30 is the target date for the vote. “Procedures have been launched in the Parliament. A large majority of MPs have signed the initiative for scheduling of the referendum,” Zaev told reporters in Kumanovo on Monday. He urged the opposition to engage and call citizens to vote at the referendum. “The referendum question is the one we unveiled – Are you in favor of EU and NATO membership by supporting the agreement between Macedonia and Greece? The referendum will be a consultative one and I once again urge the opposition to get engaged and call on citizens to vote,” said Zaev. According to him, this is a historic decision that defines the country’s future. “This is a historic decision not only because it is put for a referendum vote, but because it defines the future of the Republic of Macedonia,” added Zaev. He stressed that all stakeholders are obliged to create the conditions so that people are motivated to vote. “I am convinced that we are on the right path and know that the referendum will be a success,” underlined Zaev.

Kosovo tariffs: No agreement yet on full revocation (MIA)

No concrete agreement has been reached for Kosovo to fully lift the increased tariffs after Friday’s meeting in Pristina between Macedonian Economy Minister Kresnik Bekteshi and Kosovo’s Minister of Trade and Industry Bajram Hasani. “Hasani and I have held a lengthy but very constructive meeting, where we were presenting arguments to elaborate our position on why it is necessary to fully revoke the tariffs. Even though the measure has been partially lifted for most produces, 21 in total, it is still in force for seven produces, including tomatoes, pepper, grapes, plums, apples, pears and raspberries. These goods are in fact one of the most traded between Macedonia and Kosovo,” Minister Bekteshi said after the meeting. The Kosovo government, he added, will review Macedonia’s remarks at an upcoming session in a bid to seek a solution that is mutually acceptable. “I personally believe that very soon we will resume our excellent trade cooperation in the interest of the farmers and the business community in the countries,” the Macedonian Minister noted. The meeting came as a result of an official letter sent by Bekteshi to his Kosovo counterpart one week ago. It also followed the meeting of CEFTA countries in Belgrade, which welcomed the decision of the Kosovo government to partly lift trade barriers all the while urging Pristina to fully revoke tariffs for the remaining produces.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

A Russian Attack on Montenegro Could Mean the End of NATO (Foreign Policy, by Jeffrey A. Stacey, 27 July 2018)

Trump doesn’t think the country is worth defending. Putin has already tried to destabilize it once—the West can’t let it happen again.

Russia has repeatedly outsmarted the West in recent years, managing to play a weaker hand with remarkable skill. Moscow has finely honed its skills in information warfare and hybrid warfare, relying on methods including pressure diplomacy, fake news, and foreign electoral intervention. Along the way, it has taken parts of Georgia and Ukraine by force and knocked both the United States and Britain down several pegs geopolitically. Russia is not as powerful as it was in the Soviet era but, thanks to President Vladimir Putin’s strategic thinking, it is now regularly punching above its weightRussia is not as powerful as it was in the Soviet era but, thanks to President Vladimir Putin’s strategic thinking, it is now regularly punching above its weight in global affairs. Russia is far more effective than China in kneecapping the West whenever it can, while constantly seeking and frequently finding ways to undermine it. Most worryingly for the West, the coup de grâce could come in the Balkans, long the stage for Russian competition with the West. No one knows what Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to in their two-hour private meeting in Helsinki earlier this month. Trump may have handed Putin a list of key marginal congressional races in which he needs Russia to interfere. It’s more likely that they talked about NATO, Crimea, and Ukraine—and that Putin got what he wanted from Trump.

Indeed, Trump appears to be playing along with a Russian ploy that could shatter the NATO alliance by going after its newest member. “Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people,” the president told the Fox News host and Trump admirer Tucker Carlson, the day after meeting with Putin. “They have very aggressive people. And they may get aggressive, and congratulations, you are in World War III,” he added. An armed Russian incursion in Montenegro—involving hybrid or traditional warfare—would give Trump an opportunity to make good on his word to Fox News and tell NATO allies that Washington will not honor Article 5 of the NATO treaty and join its allies in coming to Montenegro’s aid. Without U.S. involvement in an operation by the NATO Response Force—NATO’s multinational high-readiness attack force—Europe would likely back off and not respond to a surprise assault. Russia’s attack would not occur via land-based forces, which would have to travel through multiple countries that lean Western. Instead, the attack would likely come by sea and air.

Such a scenario would do mortal damage to NATO, irrevocably splitting the alliance. Russia has already attempted a coup in Montenegro to prevent it from joining NATO in the first place, and more recently, developments in Macedonia have led to Russian intelligence agents from the FSB—the main successor to the KGB—deploying in order to attempt to foment unrest there, as well as in Greece, where two diplomats were just expelled for ginning up opposition to a Greek deal with Macedonia to change the latter’s name and put to rest a long-simmering dispute. Although Russia will never attack U.S. or Western forces directly—the several hundred Russian mercenary soldiers killed by U.S. forces in Syria recently are a case in point—it actually doesn’t have to. Russia can mortally wound NATO without ever engaging its forces head-on. Not only are the FSB and GRU—Russia’s military intelligence unit—increasingly targeting the Balkans, but Russia has also now deployed the bulk of its most effective military forces on its western border. Montenegro is NATO’s newest and, in many ways, its weakest member. Having only become independent from Serbia in 2006, its minuscule population of about 630,000 features armed forces that number only around 2,000. It is a small and peaceful country, the only one of the former Yugoslav republics that did not get caught up in the violent aftermath of the breakup of Yugoslavia. However, even before it was independent and well before becoming a member of NATO, Montenegro was and continues to be a contributor to NATO forces in Afghanistan, making a significant contribution in per capita terms. In fact, at Washington’s request, Montenegro actually increased its deployment in Afghanistan in 2017. But Russia has been pressuring Montenegro for the past decade. In 2017, after the Montenegrin Parliament voted in favor of joining NATO, the Russian Foreign Ministry said the government had “ignored the voice of reason and conscience” and that Russia reserved “the right to take steps aimed at defending our interests and national security.” Russia rapidly banned imports of all Montenegrin wine and declared an advisory for Russians traveling there, while Putin’s spokesman threatened further “retaliatory actions.” Montenegro holds Russia responsible for attempting to carry out a coup against the current president, Milo Djukanovic (when he was still prime minister), on election day in October 2016, accusing 14 individuals—Russian and Serbian nationalists, including two members of the GRU—of planning to attack state buildings and kill Djukanovic. Fittingly, it was Montenegro’s current prime minister, Dusko Markovic, whom Trump literally pushed out of his way in his first visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels. Montenegro has already joined the Council of Europe, as well as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The European Union is also seriously considering inviting it to join as a full-fledged member, which, along with its newfound NATO membership, is why Russia is so concerned. Moscow doesn’t want another pro-Western country in the geographical zone it defines as its “near abroad.” In hindsight, it appears Russia’s assertiveness in the region goes all the way back to the aftermath of the Kosovo War in 1999, when, after Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic’s capitulation to NATO, there was a surprising race between Russian and NATO forces to occupy an airfield on the outskirts of Pristina in Kosovo. Russia got there first, and a direct confrontation was narrowly avoided after high-level British and U.S. officials intervened. With Russia resentful of NATO’s expansion, the next major inflection point came when it invaded NATO applicant Georgia in 2008. Senior U.S. officials, including former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, have publicly admitted it was a mistake not to respond to this incursion in a concrete manner. Russia still occupies part of Georgia to this day. This was a turning point, allowing the Kremlin to conclude that it could challenge Western interests with minimal response, so long as it didn’t take the West on directly. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and occupation of eastern Ukraine occurred in response to the Ukrainian revolution in 2014 and the EU invitation for Ukraine to join it. Since then, Russia has engaged in hundreds of near-miss provocations of NATO forces in the air and at sea. It also appears that Moscow successfully interfered in the Brexit vote and the 2016 U.S. election and poisoned a former Russian spy on British territory. Having already achieved this degree of damage to the West, it is possible Russia is now beginning to misjudge the NATO allies’ tolerance and is overplaying its hand. The reason the Helsinki summit amounts to a full-blown national security crisis is that the Russians have announced they are moving forward on agreements made in the meeting, while top U.S. officials and military commanders remain totally in the dark. Hints from the Russian side suggest that a new referendum in eastern Ukraine, a Putin visit to Washington, and Syrian refugee resettlement were all discussed. The real question is whether Trump is simply acting on his whims to harm U.S. national security interests or if strings are actually being pulled from Moscow. Already, during the 2016 campaign, Trump spoke on multiple occasions about how NATO was taking advantage of the American people, specifically mentioning the Baltic countries by name, further casting doubt on whether he would honor Article 5 as president. Now, he is singling out Montenegro. At the very least, Trump’s comments about Montenegro serve to weaken the alliance, giving Russia further latitude to destabilize NATO’s newest member and increasing the risks of renewed conflict in the Balkans. At worst, these words reflect Putin’s own views, raising serious concerns that the two presidents arrived at some form of understanding about Montenegro behind closed doors. Unless NATO is fully prepared to counter the threat militarily, the immediate consequence of a Russian attack on Montenegro would be the effective end of the most powerful military alliance in world history.

Jeffrey A. Stacey is a national security consultant, a former State Department official in the Obama administration, and the author of the book, “Integrating Europe.”