LOCAL PRESS

US also to take Kosovo off the UN Security Council in September (Novosti)

The US, which will assume the chairing of the UN Security Council in September, will not include the quarterly report of the Secretary-General in this month, Novosti learns. The report by UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres, covering the period between 16 April and 15 July 2018, was supposed to have been debated in August but Great Britain, which held the chair, took it off the agenda.  Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic told Novosti that the report could be on the agenda of the SC in October or November. “We hope that report will be on the agenda in October when Bolivia chairs the SC or in November at the latest when China takes over,” Dacic said.

Dacic: Pristina lost support of great powers (Blic)

The fact that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Donald Trump discussed Kosovo and gave support for talks that lead to the resolution of this issue is a big step and proof that things have changed, to the benefit of Serbia, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic told Blic.

“Still, a difficult battle awaits us, and Germany is the most one of all those who need to be influenced furthermore,” said Dacic. He reacted to Hashim Thaci’s statement – that he opposes ethnic borders, but that he is not naïve and that he knows that it suits Serbia not to hurry with the unavoidable recognition of Kosovo. “Pristina lost support, there is no more the position that everything has been resolved. They cannot grasp this at all, so this is why they are understanding so tragically all these statements from the world, as well as withdrawals of recognition,” said Dacic. Dacic says that the statement of Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic – that he supports respect of borders in reference to the opinion of the Banditer Commission, is hypocritical. “When it comes to the Banditer Commission, it referred to inter-republic borders, it mentioned nowhere provinces, so that all those who recognized the so-called Kosovo have done so against the position of the Banditer Commission. Croatia also belongs here and it is hypocritical that they refer to this commission,” says Dacic.

Odalovic: The figure of 10,250 missing shows how serious the problem is (RTS)

The Chairperson of the government Commission on Missing Persons Veljko Odalovic has expressed dissatisfaction with the efforts to find the people missing in the wars of the 1990s in the former Yugoslavia. “The figure of 10,250 people missing shows how serious the problem is,” he said.  Odalovic said that one of the problems the Commission faces is that lack of readiness by some countries to face the consequences of the wars and crimes committed on their territory and urged the opening of all records in the countries of the region. According to Commission data, there are no mass graves in Serbia with the remains of people missing from the wars in the former Yugoslavia, he said and added that the remains are in mass graves in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.

Sava Janjic: Delineation is a model in line with the ethnic cleansing policy (Vreme/Beta)

Abbot Sava Janjic of the Visoki Decani monastery told Vreme in an interview that relations between Albanians and Serbs have deteriorated following irresponsible statements about changes to borders. “Those irresponsible statements and especially the media campaign which is attempting to impose that solution on the public as the only right one made relations between Albanians and Serbs worse,” Abbot Janjic said. He expressed special concern over statements about a delineation between Serbs and Albanians which, he says, means “that where one of them lives, the others will not and vice versa”. Janjic said that was in line with the policies of ethnic cleansing in the wars in the former Yugoslavia.  A delineation between Serbs and Albanians, which was announced at the opening of a meat plant, would be a huge factor of instability for the region and for Europe and a great tragedy for the Serbs who mainly live south of the Ibar River. He said the church opposes a frozen conflict as a long-term danger. “A so-called frozen conflict is a term no one in the church has ever used to denote a solution for the Kosovo problem. Every conflict has to be resolved in peace and understanding and frozen means being static. As responsible people, especially as Christians we are obliged to be active peacemakers,” Sava Janjic said adding that the alternative to a frozen conflict is not a return to the ideology of ethnically compact and pure territories.

REGIONAL PRESS

Zvizdic: Instead of changing borders, it is necessary sign border demarcation agreements (TV1)

Chairman of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Council of Ministers (CoM) Denis Zvizdic underlined on Wednesday that messages saying that borders and territorial integrity of all Western Balkans countries have been established and are inviolable is one of most important messages conveyed during his recent meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Zvizdic stressed that instead of changing borders in the Western Balkans through the transfer of territory, it is necessary for the abovementioned countries to sign border demarcation agreements with their neighbors.  “In this way we will prove that our statements on respect of territorial integrity and sovereignty of countries in the Western Balkans are credible,” emphasized Zvizdic.

Zvizdic invited Croatia and Serbia to sign an agreement on demarcation such as the one B&H signed with Montenegro. Zvizdic warned that that any changes made to territorial borders in the region could deepen the gap among peoples in the region and seriously affect international relations. He underlined that creating new borders based on ethnic criteria is not in line with international standards. Zvizdic believes that B&H and Croatia should ratify their border agreement determining the international corridor with the access to international waters, while the border agreement between B&H and Serbia should be based on the border defined in 1991.

Three former High Representatives address Mogherini and warn that possible change of borders between Serbia and Kosovo could lead to instability in B&H (TV1)

Three former High Representatives in B&H, namely Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown and Christian Schwarz-Schilling sent an open letter to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini and warned the EU that transfer of territory between Serbia and Kosovo through “border correction” could lead to instability in B&H and annulling of everything positive done in the previous period. The letter reads that former High Representatives are deeply concerned with suggestions made by the EU officials that the EU may be willing to support agreement between Serbia and Kosovo that involves transfer of territory and change of borders between the two countries. It further reads that Bildt, Ashdown and Schilling know the situation in the region “well enough to know that moving borders like this will not solve divisions, but only deepen them.” Three former High Representatives underlined that although there cannot be comparison between the case of Kosovo and the situation in B&H, they know the Western Balkans well to know that such policy would be misused by nationalist politicians to further challenge borders and destabilize other countries in the region. “We know B&H well enough to know that this will give comfort and support to those who would break up the country, who are already calling for a return to the status quo before the Dayton Peace Agreement, unraveling all we and our Bosnian partners have worked for over more than two decades,” reads the letter signed by three former High Representatives. Bildt, Ashdown and Schwarz-Schilling emphasized that they know the EU and the Europe well enough to know that sustainable peace can only come when “we learn to live in multi-ethnic communities” and not when borders are re-drawn. The letter concludes that policies supporting new changes of borders put in risk current agreements, such as in Macedonia, undermining unity of states such as B&H, encouraging those who wish to see exchange of territory elsewhere, such as in Ukraine and is likely to lead to exodus of minorities from their existing communities. Three former High Representatives called on the EU to reject the abovementioned initiative.

Governments of RS and Serbia adopt 16 conclusions and sign a number of inter-govt. memorandums and agreements at joint session in Trebinje (RTRS)

Republika Srpska (RS) Government and the Serbian Government held the ninth joint session in Trebinje on Wednesday. The two delegations agreed that the first joint energy project of the RS and Serbia will be the hydro power plants ‘Foca’ and ‘Paunci’, as part of the project ‘Hydro Power Plants on Drina River’ worth EUR 200 million. RS Prime Minister Zeljka Cvijanovic and Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic announced that this project will pave the way for future cooperation in this field with enormous resources, all in order to improve the life of both “republics”. “Of course, we want all of this to be aimed at development of both Serbia and the RS, as well as our society as a whole and all our citizens,” Cvijanovic said, adding that concrete activities will begin as early as in September. “Intensified activities and preparations for complete implementation of these projects will be conducted in 2019,” she added. Brnabic assessed this project as a major project of historic importance, which she thinks will have an impact on economic development of both Serbia and the RS. “It will certainly mean a lot in terms of our energy stability and energy independence and it will also give a political signal of how much we can closely cooperate,” Brnabic said. Participants of the session also stressed the importance of cooperation in the field of defense industry, in which the RS already has a lot of potential. Besides, competent ministers signed memorandums of cooperation in the fields of energy, civil engineering and information-communication technologies. Serbia has invested EUR 21.5 million in the RS since 2014, EUR 9 million of which has been invested over the past year. Cvijanovic expressed her gratitude to the Serbian Government for all the money it has invested in order to support development of municipalities in the RS. Brnabic stressed that such cooperation would have been impossible without extraordinary results that the RS Government has achieved in terms of fiscal consolidation, budget stability and increase of the number of employed persons in the RS, for which she congratulated to both Cvijanovic and RS President Milorad Dodik.

Izetbegovic meets with Palestinian President Abbas, calls for respecting of all UN resolutions and stopping of violence (TV1)

Chairman of B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic paid a visit to Palestine and met with President of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas. Among other things, two officials confirmed friendly and bilateral relations between B&H and Palestine. Izetbegovic reminded that B&H supported the UN Resolution calling for protection of Palestinian civilians. Prior to meeting with Abbas, Izetbegovic visited Mausoleum dedicated to late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Following the meeting, Abbas and Izetbegovic addressed media. Abbas called for organizing of an international peace summit aimed to renew peace process that would enable forming of two countries and resolving of a conflict between Israel and Palestine. Abbas added that he informed Izetbegovic about recent US’ decisions concerning Jerusalem that proved biasness of the US towards Israel. Izetbegovic stressed that B&H strongly supports organizing of peace conference that will bring long-term and just resolution of the conflict grounded on principles of the international law and aimed to establish two independent countries. He called for respect of the UN resolutions and to end construction of settlements on occupied Palestinian territories, adding that this is precondition to renew peace negotiations.

NATO’s Gottemoeller discusses Western Balkans with EU defense ministers (Dnevni avaz)

Deputy NATO Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller attended an informal meeting of defense ministers of the EU member countries on Wednesday in Vienna. According to NATO press statement, the officials discussed situation in the Western Balkans. An informal meeting of the ministers of foreign affairs of the EU member countries was scheduled for today (Thursday), at which the main focus was the possible agreement between Kosovo and Serbia about territory exchange. The statement reads that this agreement represents a dangerous path that can lead to a butterfly effect and violence.

Prime Minister warns about rise of populism in EU (Hina)

Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, who was on a working visit to Germany, on Tuesday evening held a lecture on Croatia and the future of the European Union in the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Berlin, and informed the institution of the priorities of Croatia’s presidency over the Union in the first half of 2020. The European Union must be able to fulfill the expectations of its citizens and be more self-confident in its actions on the international scene, and in parallel honor the values on which it was based: the respect for human rights, freedoms, democracy and the rule of law, Plenkovic said in his speech he delivered in German. As for the topics on which Croatia will focus during its EU chairmanship, the Prime Minister pointed out economic growth, measures to reduce youth unemployment, regional development, safety and security and the EU enlargement. In his comment on the forthcoming elections for the next EU parliament, Plenkovic warned against a rise in popularity of populist parties throughout Europe. It is our task to halt that negative trend and its negative impact on the next European elections, he said. Earlier on Tuesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who received Plenkovic for bilateral talks, commended Croatia for protecting the European Union’s external borders and supported its accession to the Schengen Area.

Rudovic announces formation of Montenegrin opposition alliance (Pobjeda)

Former president of the Civic Movement URA, Nedjeljko Rudovic, announced talks about the unification of the part of pro-Montenegrin opposition forces, organizations and individuals which would result in the formation of the Montenegrin opposition alliance. “The sense of my future political activity is in the unification of opposition political subjects, organizations and individuals who are unquestionably committed to Montenegro and further emancipation of the Montenegrin society, taking developed European democracies as a role model,” said Rudovic. Since the opposition pole of the political scene in Montenegro is too fragmented, it cannot be expected that any changes will happen soon. Journalists asked if URA would be part of that union. Rudovic said that he would remain member of that party as long as he believed that there was a chance that this party might come back to its original objective. He lost hope that political representatives of our citizens who were against the independence of Montenegro would now dedicate to their country. “Instead of civil Montenegro, a country respected by everybody, they are still trying to turn it into a dominantly Serbian country. That’s a regressive policy which has denial of Montenegrin identity at its core. We all have to adopt some attitude about that policy. And that means that there’s no way that the government will be constituted according to the model used so far. Key functions at all levels at the moment of the change of the government can be performed only by those who have the best references, and who are dedicated to reinforcement of Montenegro and healing of Montenegrin society,” said Rudovic.

Radulovic: Guests from Serbia don’t swallow terrible lies (Dnevne novine)

The alleged story that Serbs in Montenegro are under threat hasn’t affected the arrivals of tourists from Serbia to Montenegro, despite the efforts of one part of the politicians to make a big deal out of that. Luckily, people aren’t ignorant and all these stories are in vain, says the President of the Montenegro Tourist Association, Zarko Radulovic. He reminds that almost every year, right before the beginning of the season, media announce texts about illnesses, sharks, about snakes on the streets of Montenegro and alike. “For people who do business, there’s always a certain dose of fear that political situation might affect their activities but, fortunately, that hasn’t happened so far, not even in 2006, after the Referendum, when Montenegro regained independence. Number of tourists from Serbia didn’t reduce. The same goes for tourists from Russia. We all remember the negative campaign conducted against Montenegro in 2016. But the IT helped the truth to come out,” said Radulovic. He says that there are two main reasons for the story about the Serbs in Montenegro being endangered. “One of the reasons is the Law on religious communities. The epilogue of this story is quite evident and that’s why Serbia is trying to provoke conflict and stop the process. The second reason is Kosovo. Serbia is trying to shift the focus from what is going in Belgrade- Pristina relation, their burning issue. I am not an analyst, just impartial observer,” says Radulovic.

Danielsson: Referendum offers unique opportunity for citizen to shape their future (MIA)

The European Commission welcomes the courageous agreement reached with Greece on the name issue, as it historic breakthrough and recognized as such by the entire international community. It sets an example not only to the region, but to Europe as a whole. On 30 September the citizens will have the unique opportunity to shape the future of this country, EC Director-General of Neighborhood and Enlargement Policy Christian Danielsson told a press conference on Wednesday in Skopje. ‘The message we are sending is that we strongly encourage all citizens to make their own informed opinion about the content of the name agreement, which is now available online, and the consequences of the referendum. At such very important time for the country I think it would be very clear that it’s significant to exercise the democratic rights and cast a vote. It’s one in a lifetime opportunity to decide on this important issue. It is also clear that the referendum would be essential for the future steps when it comes to Euro-Atlantic integration,’ Danielsson said. The road ahead for this country is clear – it leads towards the EU membership, he said, notifying that the European Commission is strongly committed to accompany the country in its reform efforts and to turn its EU-perspective into reality. ‘And as a sign of our support and as part of the preparation for opening the accession negotiations Commissioner Johannes Hahn, during his visit in July, launched the screening process for the ministries here to be further familiarized with the EU legislation. And the Commission will be able to evaluate the preparedness for implementing the EU legislation, starting with the crucial area – the rule of law. That’s we are going to focus on in the coming weeks and months – it is very demanding process and this is in parallel with the reform agenda, which we’ve also discussed today- important one in areas, such as fighting corruption, international organized crime, improving the situation of the judiciary, addressing the issue when it comes to public administration, reforming the electoral legislation,’ Danielsson said. Asked to comment the opposition’s reluctance to present its stance on the referendum in public, Danielsson once again underlined the significance of the process, saying that ‘it is essential and the issue being raised is vital for the future Euro-Atlantic path of this country.’

Zaev expects vast citizens’ support for Macedonia’s future (MIA)

A vast majority of citizens will vote in favor of Macedonia’s future within the European Union and NATO at the upcoming referendum, Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said on Wednesday.

Speaking to reporters after the launch of EU campaign ‘Imagine Future Together’, Zaev expressed hope that the opposition might also vote ‘for’, considering its support of the country’s accession to the EU and NATO. ‘I am aware of their objections to the (name) agreement with Greece, but I wish to say once again there were no guarantees for getting a better deal if the settlement of the name row would have been postponed’ Zaev said. The agreement is fair, Zaev said, notifying that it safeguards the Macedonian identity, language, anthem, coat of arms. He also announced a ‘pleasant, educational and mobilizing’ referendum campaign, nothing alike the ones of political parties for general elections.

Pendarovski: Macedonia expects to join NATO in Q1 of 2020 (MIA)

Macedonia expects to become a full-fledged NATO member in the first quarter of 2020, National Coordinator Stevo Pendarovski told a press conference on Wednesday.

In the next few months Macedonia should confirm that it accepts all provisions of the Alliance’s founding document – the North Atlantic Treaty, Pendarovski said. ‘We expect for the accession talks to be completed by the end of this year and than the entire process will be transferred to the Greece’s and the parliament of all other NATO members. The ratification process should take one year for Macedonia to become a member in the first quarter of 2020,’ Pendarovski said. He also notified that the government adopted a concept of the National Structure for running the process of Macedonia’s accession to NATO. The structure will comprise of three bodies: the highest one is dubbed NATO Integration Committee; followed by NATO Integration Working Committee and the Secretariat for Operational/Logistic Plan. Prime Minister Zoran Zaev will chair the highest body, which is to bring together officials of all state institutions that have any connection with the country’s NATO accession process, Pendarovski said. He also notified that Macedonia, as the Alliance’s member, would allocate 0.1-0.2 percent of its GDP, or about EUR 500,000, for the NATO budget.

IRI poll: 57% support EU, NATO membership under the name ‘Republic of North Macedonia’ (MIA)

A majority of Macedonians favor resolving the name dispute with Greece and support Macedonia becoming a member of the European Union and NATO, shows a poll of the International Republican Institute (IRI) ahead of the name referendum on September 30.

A combined 57 percent “completely support” (37 percent) or “somewhat support” (20 percent) the proposal for Macedonia to join the EU and NATO under the new name “Republic of North Macedonia.” The same proportion (57 percent) believe that the benefits of accession justify the acceptance of the new name. Half of the respondents (49 percent) intend to vote in favor of resolving the name dispute, compared to 22 percent who intend to vote against the proposed change, show findings of the opinion poll. Support for EU and NATO membership has continued to rise. Those in favor of Macedonia becoming a member of the EU rose to 83 percent—a six-point increase from August 2017 and an eleven-point increase from March 2017. Support for NATO also remains strong at 77 percent.

Slovenia’s support for the Euro-Atlantic integration of Macedonia reaffirmed (MIA)

Slovenia reaffirms its support for the Euro-Atlantic integration of Macedonia. It hopes, as well as other NATO member nations, that Macedonia will successfully conclude the process and that the citizens will make the right decision in the September referendum, which will allow you to sit at the NATO table as a full-fledged member. This was stated Wednesday by Slovenia’s Minister of Defense Andreja Katic, who is paying an official visit to Macedonia. “Slovenia welcomes the name agreement with Greece. The two parties have had to make concessions, however the language remains Macedonian, the nationality is Macedonian and I hope the Macedonian citizens in the referendum will make the right choice. All EU members think that the Macedonian government is good in conducting activities crucial for its future membership into the Alliance. The referendum is an institute of democratic progress and gives the citizens a chance to express their will. Which makes it more important for the citizens of Macedonia to take part and express their will,” Minister Katic told a press conference in Skopje alongside her Macedonian counterpart Radmila Sekerinska. Macedonia, Sekerinska stated, should follow Slovenia’s example and apply its formula for success. “Macedonia and Slovenia after declaring independence had chosen the same path, but unfortunately at a different pace. Slovenia was the first country in the region that became a NATO member and the first that joined the EU. It’s no coincidence that Slovenia now has the highest average and minimum salary in the region and the best standards. Slovenia’s example is the best indicator for a success formula for us. Macedonia knows it is the right way. We are confident that on Sept. 30, the citizens in a referendum will reaffirm that they want this kind of future for themselves and for their families, their children,” she said. The two ministers signed a memorandum of cooperation that improves the already solid defense cooperation between Macedonia and Slovenia.  “By the time the memorandum is implemented, I expect the countries to foster cooperation as two full-fledged members of NATO despite starting off as a NATO member and a NATO aspirant,” Minister Sekerinska concluded.

Albanian deported from Italy for connection with ISIS (ADN)

A 28 years old man was deported to Albania from Italy for connection with terrorism and ISIS. He was banned to live in Italy from this August 23 and actually he is in Tirana controlled by the authorities. The young man was in Ravena, Italy without legal documents. His Albanian girlfriend with Italian citizenship stayed in Italy and the reason of the 28 years old man staying in the same state was to ca be equipped with legal documents after the birth of his first child.

But according to the Italian authorities he is a dangerous person with connection with terrorist’s part of ISIS.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

Kosovo premier warns border change with Serbia ‘would mean war’ (Irish Times, by Daniel McLaughlin, 29 August 2018)

Ramush Haradinaj says land swap would help Russia destabilise the Balkans

Kosovo prime minister Ramush Haradinaj has warned that any land swap with Serbia “would mean war” and called on world leaders to swiftly quash an idea that he believes only boosts Russian efforts to destabilise the Balkans. Mr Haradinaj acknowledged that his stance puts him on a collision course with Kosovo president Hashim Thaci, who with his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic is open to border changes as part of a deal to normalise their countries’ relations. In recent days senior EU and US officials have said they would not oppose such an agreement as long as it did not cause problems elsewhere in the Balkans, where many people fear that altering frontiers – especially along ethnic lines – would trigger a domino effect of dangerous territorial claims in a region still recovering from the wars of the 1990s.

Tragic wars

“It would mean war,” Mr Haradinaj told The Irish Times in Pristina. “If we re-open what has already been agreed, it means re-opening the past, and in our region re-opening the past means re-opening wars. All these borders are the result of tragic wars.” Kosovo broke from Belgrade’s rule in a 1998-9 conflict, declared independence in 2008 and its status has been recognised by more than 110 states; Serbia refuses to accept its sovereignty, however, and its stance is backed by Russia. After years of grinding EU-backed talks on a resolution to the impasse, Mr Thaci and Mr Vucic now suggest that a change to their countries’ borders could help them reach a deal and allow Serbian acceptance of Kosovo’s independence, removing a key obstacle to their hopes of EU accession. Mr Thaci is calling for a “border correction” that would see Kosovo absorb the largely ethnic Albanian Presevo valley in southern Serbia, while senior Serbian officials want mostly Serb northern Kosovo to come back under Belgrade’s rule. The European Union and United States now seem willing to consider such a plan, despite a multitude of warnings from the Balkans and beyond that it could embolden separatist claims in Bosnia and elsewhere in a region that is still scarred by the bloody collapse of Yugoslavia. “It would mean opening Pandora’s box, and threatening not only our own stability but the stability of our neighbours,” said Mr Haradinaj, who was a rebel commander during the Kosovo war. “I think it’s the wrong direction to even allow discussion and rhetoric on borders and territory. I hope world leaders come out as soon as possible and are crystal clear in asking all parties to respect past agreements and stop talking about this.”

Failed coup

Asked whom such a solution would benefit, Mr Haradinaj replied: “Only one man – Putin.”

Russian president Vladimir Putin opposes Nato expansion in the Balkans, and Moscow’s agents are accused of backing a failed coup in Montenegro before it joined the alliance last year.

Russia has also criticised a historic pact between Greece and Macedonia to change the latter’s official name, which would allow it join Nato if votes on the deal succeed this autumn. The Kremlin is also a key ally of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who wants his region to split from ethnically divided Bosnia. Several Kosovo political parties that oppose Mr Thaci’s plan want to hold a special session of parliament on the issue next week, to vote on a resolution before he travels to Brussels to meet Mr Vucic on September 7th.

Serbia, Kosovo and the Prospect of Partition (Geopolitical Futures, by Jacob L. Shapiro, 30 August 2018)

Their presidents are moving forward with the most serious attempt yet to resolve their long-running conflict.

Conferences, meetings and summits are usually forgettable. If GPF covered the comings and goings of every leader at every European get-together, we wouldn’t have time to write about much else. But some are due a certain amount of respect. What if, say, two enemies-turned-statesmen actually agreed with each other in potentially redrawing their countries’ boundaries? Such was the case last weekend, when the presidents of Serbia and Kosovo spoke at the European Forum Alpbach 2018 in Austria. Whispers of partition have been audible for a few months now, but this marks the first public utterings of the possibility on both sides – and it happened before EU-mediated talks resume Sept. 7. It’s not especially surprising that Serbia and Kosovo would consider partition. There are pockets of ethnic Albanians in Serbia, and pockets of ethnic Serbs in Kosovo, and any serious deal to end their dispute, the most current iteration of which dates back to the early 1990s, needs to take that into account. These pockets of political opposition may well keep a deal from getting off the ground, but the presidents are nonetheless pushing forward with what is, so far, the most serious attempt yet to resolve this long-running conflict. What is surprising is how well received partition has been. Last Sunday, an official at the European Commission said it was the commission’s job to support whatever solution is agreed to by the two sides. The official made clear this should not be considered a “blueprint for other issues” – EU institutions are terrified that land-swaps between Kosovo and Serbia will set a precedent for border issues across Europe – but in principle agreed to support partition. The United States, meanwhile, said at the end of last week that it would not stand in the way of the measure. Interestingly, this newfound position of the European Union and the U.S. is the same position Russia has had for years. Russia has not come out in support of border changes, but its official stance has always been to support fulfillment of whatever agreements are reached between Belgrade and Pristina, within the EU-mediated negotiation process. If Serbia, one of Moscow’s friendliest European allies, decides it is in its best interest to make a deal with Kosovo, it’s unlikely Russia will stand in the way. In fact, whatever Serbia is doing, it is likely doing it with Russia’s tacit approval. Perhaps Russia hopes to engender some goodwill in the EU that its members will keep it in mind when Russian sanctions come to a vote again. The only country still holding the line now is Germany – breaking with the European Union, for a change. For Germany, border change in the Balkans is anathema to the “territorial inviolability” of the Western Balkans. In German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s own words, the impossibility of border changes “has to be said again and again because again and again there are attempts to perhaps talk about borders and we can’t do that.” Germany, for which maintaining the coherence of the EU is second to none, has the most to lose if a Kosovo-Serbia arrangement encourages Catalan separatists in Spain, or Hungarian separatists in Romania, or perhaps even inside Germany itself, to follow suit later on. Such heady consequences, though important, are indeed far-off. The more immediate issue here is that the West is attempting to gain something of a foothold in this part of the world. Macedonia and Greece may soon vote on a name agreement that would pave the way to Macedonia’s accession to NATO and the EU. (Germany is the most important supporter of Macedonia’s EU accession.) Montenegro has already been inducted into NATO, and while Greece may be paying debts for the next 40 years, it’s still in the EU, and it’s stable for now. Bosnia-Herzegovina is still a basket-case, but then, not all problems can be solved at once. An internationally recognized agreement on Kosovo that could enable Belgrade to tilt to the West would be a boon to this broader strategy. This is not to say that a Kosovo-Serbia deal would by itself unify the Balkans or cement the West’s influence there. After all, Kosovo is ethnic Albanian – and Serbia has always feared that making a deal with Kosovo could encourage separatist movements inside Serbia, or worse, create an opening for a pursuit of a “Greater Albania” by Tirana. And if negotiations collapse out of mutual distrust – a distinct possibility – it could also lead to violence. (The Israel-Palestine conflict comes to mind. Camp David II included provisions for land swaps, and when it failed to materialize, violence erupted.) Sometimes negotiations lead to the very problems they are meant to prevent because they are too intractable to be solved. Germany’s position is not unreasonable – once one border can be changed, other separatist-minded groups in Europe will take notice and perhaps take action, no matter what a European Commission official says. Yet insisting that nothing can change isn’t especially practical. Like it or not, Kosovo and Serbia are considering land swaps to make peace, however risky it may be. More important is that Serbia, Kosovo, the EU, the U.S. and Russia all seem willing to support the decision – which means they all see a benefit for doing so.

Kammenos: The Greek people will have the last word on FYROM-Greece accord (To Vima, 30 August 2018)

Many Greeks are vehemently opposed to the agreement’s recognition of a Macedonia language and ethnicity

Just hours after the cabinet reshuffle, and as the post-memorandum government is beginning its work, Defence Minister Panos Kammenos once again declared his opposition to the FYROM-Greece accord. Kammenos, responding to what he considered provocative statements by top government officials in Skopje, said that the Greek people will have the last word, apparently implying that Greece should conduct a referendum on the agreement, as FYROM will do at the end of September. Many Greeks are vehemently opposed to the agreement’s recognition of a Macedonia language and ethnicity, and FYROM Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov’s statement, before the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, that he is a Macedonian and speaks Macedonian, rekindled the anger of opponents of the accord in Greece. Kammenos, whose Independent Greeks party according to the polls will not have enough support to enter parliament in the next general election, is banking on the backlash against the accord in order to rally his right-wing electoral base. In his remarks at a meeting of EU defence ministers in Vienna, Kammenos said that the “provocative statements” by FYROM’s prime minister and foreign minister [regarding the existence of a Macedonian language and ethnicity] are torpedoing every effort to find a solution, as if the Greece-FYROM agreement had not already been signed.

“The reference to a ‘Macedonian nation’ contravenes every agreement. The only thing they manage to do is to enrage the Greek people, who will have the last word, regardless of the referendum and the constitutional revision in FYROM,” Kammenos declared. It is unclear whether he was referring to the prospect of a referendum in Greece, or his threat that if the agreement is tabled in parliament he will revoke his party’s trust in the government and demand snap elections, which in part would be viewed as a referendum on the Greece-FYROM accord.