LOCAL PRESS

Brnabic, Hahn: Preservation of regional stability needed (Beta)

Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic spoke with EU Commissioner for Enlargement Negotiations and Neighborhood Policy Johannes Hahn, who was in Serbia on the occasion of the opening of the Zezelj Bridge in Novi Sad, in which the EU invested more than 30 million Euros. Brnabic and Hahn discussed the necessity of preserving regional stability and agreed that all bilateral issues with neighbors must be resolved through dialogue, while developing economic cooperation as a common basis for the progress of all countries in the region.

When it comes to dialogue with Pristina, Hahn recalled the informal ministerial meeting in Vienna and reiterated that any agreement must contribute to the peace and stability of the Western Balkans. Brnabic highlighted Belgrade’s readiness to continue the dialogue, but also the necessity of forming the Community of Serb Municipalities, which is an obligation of Pristina under the Brussels agreement which it had not fulfilled.

Dacic: Delineation one of the ideas, there are no other (Tanjug/TV Pink)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic has stated that a solution for the Kosovo issue is being sought and that delineation with the Albanians is only one idea, but that there are no other ideas.

He says that now the door is being opened to dialogue, but that they will certainly not discuss two issues – for Kosovo and Metohija to be an autonomy within Serbia and for Serbia to recognize the unilaterally declared Kosovo. “A compromise is being sought. We are now in this phase, but the question is what is compromise. Delineation is one of the ideas, but there are no other ideas. That is why there is an avalanche of resistance both in Pristina and in Belgrade,” Dacic told TV Pink. He assesses that European countries are also dissatisfied with this idea since this shows that they, nevertheless, had recognized independence of Kosovo too fast and now they need to re-examine their decisions. According to him, viewed from the angle of political analysts, if the dialogue doesn’t go in this direction, one can expect pressure to continue on Serbia to recognize Kosovo as it is and for the north to go to Kosovo.  “That pressure will manifest itself by slowing down the EU path,” says Dacic, adding that this could also lead to somebody in Kosovo and Metohija making plans for a Kosovo “Storm”, that Serbia might have to react to this, that perhaps in enters a conflict with KFOR, that Serbia requests assistance from Russia… According to him, new winds are now blowing in the US, the possibility is being opened for the Serbs and Albanians to find a compromise solution. “These things that I am talking about now have not arrived out of the blue, we have been searching for this for years. Our goal is an international conference and for everybody, apart from the EU, to be a guarantor of what had been agreed. Serbia will maintain its military neutrality,” said Dacic. Those who oppose delineation should know that an integral Kosovo is only possible as an independent state.

“We will never give north of Kosovo and Metohija, there is no dilemma about it. What else can we do? We do not have territorial linkage for all Serb-inhabited regions to remain inside Serbia,” said Dacic.

Dacic: Dialogue precondition for regional stability (RTS)

Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic said on Friday that the unilaterally declared independence of Kosovo and Metohija is the biggest security challenge for our country, bearing in mind the discrimination and violence that the members of the Serbian community in the province are exposed to. Speaking at the informal meeting of EU foreign ministers and candidate countries held in Vienna, Dacic reiterated that Serbia sees EU membership as its main strategic position.

We believe that the EU also has a strategic commitment that Serbia and our region be a part of it, in order to make our continent safer and jointly act on the international scene, advocating effective multilateralism, Dacic underlined. He said that the making of the Brussels agreement was motivated by the desire to find opportunities for a systematic, institutional protection of the Serbian and other non-Albanian communities in the province, due to the lack of adequate institutional mechanisms and that this was supposed to be the task of the Community of Serb Municipalities, which has not been formed even after five years. That is why the support of the international community is crucial for the success of the dialogue, Dacic said, voicing his expectation that all participants in the process will work on establishing trust, because without trust it will not be easy or at all possible to build a better future.

Djuric: Unity needed for solution to Kosovo issue (RTS)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric told RTS that unity is needed when it comes to Kosovo and Metohija. Asked to comment his statement that finding of solution for relations with Pristina is farther than before, Djuric said that his statement is grounded on hysteric reactions from Kosovo, some international circles and some political subjects in Serbia to initiative regarding delinieation in Kosovo. He said a critical mass of people opposed to a solution is being formed which he feels is opposed to Serbia’s interest.  Djuric said that the independence of Kosovo is set in stone for many Western countries and accused opposition leaders of sharing that view. Commenting statement of the Foreign Minister of Germany Heiko Maas, saying that Berlin opposes any changes of borders, Djuric said that this is evidence that President Aleksandar Vucic was right when he said that Serbia needs unity if it wants to get anything for Serbia and Serb people regarding issue of Kosovo. Djuric explained that Germany, the UK and some other powerful countries deem that entire territory of Kosovo belongs to the so called independent state of Kosovo. Asked to comment statement of Metropolitan Porfirije saying that issue of Kosovo must not be misused for achieving of some political interests, Djuric stressed that majority of those in the Serbian Orthodox Church have reasonable views regarding Kosovo issue.

Alliance for Serbia (SzS) officially formed (Beta)

The Alliance for Serbia (SzS) was formed officially on 2 September in Belgrade, at the initiative of former Belgrade mayor Dragan Djilas, gathering nine other opposition parties and movements. The list includes the People’s Party, the Democratic Party, the Dveri Movement, Healthy Serbia, the Serbian Left, Together for Serbia, Movement for Turnaround, the Homeland Movement, and the Sloga United Labor Unions of Serbia. The founders of the SzS stated that the political scene in Serbia “is not the same any more” and that now “all opposition voters have hope that change can happen.” In a joint statement, in connection with the founders assembly, the leaders of the opposition bloc stated that they did not come together just to change the government headed by Aleksandar Vucic, the president of Serbia and president of the Serbian

Progressive Party, but to “replace the policy of humiliation of all the citizens of Serbia.”

They called on all other parties, movements and citizens who think alike to join them.

Djilas: The future lies in cooperation (N1)

The number of political parties to join the opposition bloc Alliance for Serbia (SzS) is expected to grow bigger, because this is the foundation for democracy, one of the opposition leaders, Dragan Djilas, told N1. Djilas, who is one of the founders of the SzS, said the bloc was not formed to be against the currently ruling party but because they had ideas. “I think we all are patriots and that the future lies in cooperation, reconciliation and dialogue. We tried hard to be fair, to deal with economic issues. I think that the authorities are deliberately keeping the citizens’ salaries low and that we should rely on our wisdom, to spend the money for the education of children, to create the prosecution for corruption,” Djilas said adding that those who are in power now keep on accusing the opposition of what they actually do. Djilas is convinced he and his team can make the life in Serbia better. “We must learn the lessons from what we did, to accept that people have a different opinion, to have a dialogue, to reduce the heavy words, to fight instead of whining,” he added. Speaking about the Kosovo issue, Djilas recalled that he was against it when Kosovo was being pushed into the war. According to him, as long as the current President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, is in power, Serbia will gain nothing. “Serbia has its Constitution if you want to change it do it. There is the Resolution 1244, we said in the Alliance we are ready to talk to Albanians, we said we don’t want a seat in the UN for Kosovo. Our idea is to work on reconciliation. The north of Kosovo is being terrorized by Serb criminals today, and its south by Albanian ones,” Djilas underlined.

REGIONAL PRESS

OHR expresses support to open letter sent to Mogherini by former HRs (FTV)

Recently three former High Representatives Paddy Ashdown, Carl Bildt and Christian Schwarz-Schilling sent an open letter to EU High Representative Federica Mogherini in which they stated that the EU should not allow territory exchange between Kosovo and Serbia, as it might seriously affect the stability of the region by further increasing the divide between nations. The Office of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina stated that the opinion of the three former representatives should be taken very seriously.

Osmanovic: It would be irresponsible to draw a parallel between Kosovo and B&H; Issue of internal organization of B&H will have to be raised soon (Dnevni list)

B&H Minister of Civil Affairs Adil Osmanovic (SDA), said that ‘we’ would like to see a peaceful solution between Kosovo and Serbia, arguing it would be irresponsible to draw a parallel between Kosovo and B&H, arguing “we will not have a discussion about it”. Osmanovic went on to say that Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik is demonstrating nervousness regarding demarcation between Serbia and Kosovo, arguing it is obvious B&H is strengthening its institution ever since the signing of the Dayton agreement. “What Dodik is doing shows that the RS is becoming a serious problem”, added Osmanovic. Osmanovic told Federationn of B&H-based media that the issue of internal organization of B&H will have to be raised soon because, as Osmanovic put it, the RS is becoming a serious problem on B&H’s Euro-Atlantic road and a burden to the whole region. Osmanovic said that external border of B&H are unquestionable, whilst internal borders could be subjected to a new international agreement – ‘Dayton 2’. RS parliament deputy speaker Nenad Stevandic (Napredna Srpska) said the Bosniak leadership should not create tensions with stories about abolition of the RS, arguing that centralization of B&H is not possible. SNSD representative in the B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Stasa Kosarac said Osmanovic’s statement is a new attack on the RS and its institutions. Head of the PDP Caucus in the RS parliament Miroslav Brckalo said this is about wishful thinking of certain Bosniak politicians.

Consistent and wise politics of SBB regarding protection of B&H borders (Dnevni avaz)

With regards to increased number of statements regarding retailoring of borders between Serbia and Kosovo and possible effects for B&H, SBB B&H issued a press release, reminding of the wise, consistent and firm policy that this party has been conducting for years for the sake of protection of every inch of B&H territory. With regards to this, SBB B&H reminded that they were the only party, seated in Sarajevo, which three years ago opposed the idea of SDP’s Denis Becirovic regarding returning of Sutorina. The party stressed that this idea would result in retailoring of B&H’s historic borders and they also reminded that other parties, including SDA and parties from Republika Srpska (RS), supported Becirovic’s idea. Two years after this, SBB B&H prevented SDA’s attempts in B&H Parliament, according to which the parliament’s Resolution would include the threat that B&H will withdraw from the agreement on border with Croatia, which was signed by Alija Izetbegovic under auspices of USA and the EU and which fully protects sovereignty of B&H. Party stressed that this proves that SBB B&H has knowledge and capacity to protect strategic interests of B&H, rejecting populistic and rushed initiatives and that SBB BIH is able to resist any attempt of stealing of B&H’s territory.

Crnadak: RS and Kosovo are not connected; No reason for RS position within B&H to be obstacle for agreement between Serbia and Kosovo (Oslobodjenje)

B&H Foreign Minister Igor Crnadak attended the annual international conference ‘Dubrovnik Forum’ and he participated in the ministerial forum, opened by Croatian Foreign Minister Marija Pejcinovic- Buric. The Forum, which dealt with challenges caused by migration, terrorism and climate changes, was opened by Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. According to the statement issued by Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) Foreign Ministry, Crnadak participated in the forum on ways for the states to strengthen resistance to crisis. The tone of the forum was however set by Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, who stated that any kind of retailoring of borders in the Balkans would represent an invitation to new tragedies in the Balkans. Crnadak said that the most important thing is for “Belgrade and Pristina to talk as much as possible”, but he did not want to comment in advance something that did not happen. The Minister said that he looks forward to the agreement that would be acceptable to both sides. Asked if Serbia and Kosovo agreement could cause consequences for B&H, Crnadak said that he does not see the connection: “I think that the RS has enough of protection mechanisms within B&H to protect its position. There is no a single reason to enter some things that are risky for RS. The RS position in B&H should not be a form of obstacle for an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina”, said Crnadak. Asked if he deems that some in B&H would like for the borders to be retailored, Crnadak said that the thing that someone would like is one thing and political and international reality is a completely different thing.

Palmer: Official Washington respects RS (BNTV)

On the sidelines of Dubrovnik Forum 2018, B&H Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Crnadak held a meeting with US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Palmer in Dubrovnik on Saturday. Palmer affirmed the US’ strong support to the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA), as well as the EU integration process and continuation of reforms in B&H. He stressed that the US wants to see strong development of economy and democracy in B&H, based on the Constitution of B&H and internal agreement among the three peoples and two entities. He also said that official Washington respects Republika Srpska (RS) and its role and constitutional capacity within B&H, adding that the claims that the US is hostile towards the RS are incorrect, reads a statement issued by the B&H Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Crnadak stressed that the EU membership and regional cooperation remain the foreign-policy priorities of B&H, adding that development of relations with the US is equally important to B&H. “For me, it is very important that relations between the RS and the US are open and friendly and that the RS, as part of B&H, is an important factor of permanent peace and long-term stability in the region,” Crnadak stressed, reads a statement issued by the B&H Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Dacic: Official Sarajevo obstructs B&H-Serbia border demarcation (Hayat)

Serbian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dacic stated on Saturday that official Sarajevo has been obstructing the progress in the process of border demarcation between B&H and Serbia for months. According to Dacic, the invitation of Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers Denis Zvizdic for B&H and Serbia to sign a border agreement – is actually aimed at being heard in Republika Srpska RS rather than having real effects.

Issue of the border between B&H and Serbia: statements and reactions (ATV)

RS President Milorad Dodik stated on Sunday that, when it comes to the border issue between Serbia and B&H, the matter will be resolved as Serbia decides to resolve it. According to Dodik, if the RS has an interest in regulating the border issue with Serbia, with which it shares border in full-length, then officials on B&H level do not have to come up with any solutions of their own, but only accept what Serbia proposes. “The RS and Serbia are one, as far as we are concerned. We do not have a problem with that. I believe that what Serbia proposes is functional, represents regulating things in the right way and Sarajevo has nothing to do with that. They are just formally halting this matter. It would be better if we did not inhibit one another,” said Dodik.

In a response to Dodik’s claims that Serbia will have the final say about the border with B&H, Chairman of the Council of Ministers of B&H (B&H CoM) Denis Zvizdic issued a statement on Sunday and it reads that Dodik’s populistic statement represents new ruthless assault on sovereignty of B&H, deliberate undermining of good neighboring relations and provocation which is not based on true facts. The statement further reads that the time when decisions about B&H’s best interest were made in B&H’s neighborhood have passed, while Serbia and the RS will never be one as suggested by Dodik. Zvizdic reminded that the border between B&H and Serbia is already defined, internationally recognized, confirmed by the Badinter Arbitration Committee and the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA), adding that the border cannot be changed without consent of both B&H and Serbia, unlike Dodik dreams and insinuates. Serb member of the Presidency of B&H Mladen Ivanic (PDP) said that the border between B&H and Serbia is defined but certain corrections are required in the area of Rudo. Ivanic deems that the issue of the border can be resolved through equal territory swap and abolition of illogic solutions, which would be in the best interest of the citizens living in border areas. Ivanic claims that politicians from Sarajevo lacked courage to accept Serbia’s proposal about territory swap, which was a big mistake. Ivanic stressed that he would solve this issue on behalf of B&H in accordance with the principle square meter in exchange for a square meter, along with correcting illogicalities.

SDA candidate for the post of the Bosniak member of the B&H Presidency Sefik Dzaferovic accused Ivanic of subjecting his role of the B&H Presidency member, which obliges him to protect B&H’s interests, to the interests of Serbia. “Exchange of territory in accordance with the principle square meter in exchange for a square meter which Serbia offered and which Ivanic is advocating is actually an attempt of deception to the detriment of B&H. For the value of hydro potential of Drina River does not in any case correspond to the value of some forest on the territory of the Serbian Municipality of Priboj, which Serbia offered to B&H. Offering a square meter of forest for a square meter of river or reservoir lake is the same as offering a kilogram of coal for kilogram of gold,” Dzaferovic said. Minister of Foreign Affairs of B&H Igor Crnadak (PDP) stated that the issue of the border between B&H and Serbia could have been resolved during the latest round of talks if these talks had not been held so close to the elections in B&H. “However, I must say that politicians from Sarajevo did indeed lack courage and decisiveness to truly put an end to this issue,” Crnadak said.

Croatia hosts 13th Dubrovnik Forum; main topics were issue of migrations, rise of populism and threats to EU’s fundamental values (N1)

Croatia has hosted the 13th Dubrovnik Forum, which took place this weekend. This year’s forum is dedicated to the subject of ‘Strengthening resilience – The Mediterranean, Europe and the Western Balkans’ focusing on the issues of migration, terrorism, climate change and related topics. The forum will include three panel discussions: Defining Challenges – Considering solutions; Increasing Crisis Resilience through Improved Interconnectivity; and Increasing Crisis Resilience by Countering Fake News and Media Manipulation. This year, the forum brought together 250 participants: politicians, diplomats, nongovernmental activists and political analysts. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic opened the 13th Dubrovnik Forum calling for cooperation and continuation of the European integration process as a way for making Europe more resilient to the challenges it is faced with, such as migrations, the rise of populism and threats to the EU’s fundamental values. The 2015 migration wave had the biggest impact on the European political landscape, Plenkovic said in his address on Saturday. Plenkovic said that Croatia has its role in dealing with those challenges, namely it did not decide to put up physical barriers on its borders but has significantly boosted the capabilities of its border police, with more than 6,500 officers working day and night to prevent illegal migrations and ensure compliance with EU and Croatian regulations. Croatian Foreign and European Affairs Minister Marija Pejcinovic-Buric stated that the problem of migrations should be tackled from its roots and it requires a comprehensive approach.

Zaev and Vucic discuss implementation of ‘one stop shop’ project at border crossing (MIA)

Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic met Sunday at the Tabanovce-Presevo border crossing to announce the implementation of a project on joint border management, i.e. so called One Stop Shop. The project is expected to cut down customs controls by half. By pulling up at a joint customs post, waiting time for people, vehicles and goods will be reduced. The project is in its final stages and the institutions in the two countries are prepared to implement it. The concept will be applied for the first time at this border crossing between Macedonia and Serbia, PM Zaev said thanking the World Bank for supporting the project through the International Finance Corporation (IFC). “It is included in the joint economic agenda of the Western Balkans after being completed by the EU and verified by us, the premiers of Western Balkan countries at the Trieste summit. I’m glad that we are introducing Schengen mechanisms here, in fact bringing Europe here, in the Balkans,” noted Zaev. This is yet another example of the strong friendship between Macedonia and Serbia, according to him. Zaev said he hoped the friendship in the future would be strengthened by the opening of new border crossings and by advancing cooperation. President Vucic stated that the joint management would cut down time needed to cross, because all check-ups would be carried out in one place. “This is especially important for the two countries and for businesses as well for tourists. It will further stimulate people to use this crossing, to pass across our two countries very quickly and very easy,” said Vucic. He said that he had discussed with Zaev the establishment of a regional zone. Vucic said that he was confident that the first such zone would be opened at the crossing. Serbia and Macedonia, the President said, are two friendly countries, two friendly nations fostering close relations. The objective, according to Vucic, is Belgrade and Serbia to have the ‘best relations’. This is one of the examples that demonstrates cooperation, which has resulted in reducing costs both of the people and transporters, he said. “With this project, the two countries become more competitive,” President Vucic concluded. PM Zaev said that bilateral agreements should be signed by the customs administrations, interior ministries, phytosanitary offices, veterinary services before being adapted. It will be followed by their signing at a joint session of the government, which will officially inaugurate the project. Waiting at borders results in loses of close to billion euros, according to data presented by Zaev and Vucic. Asked when the two governments would hold a joint session, PM Zaev said that a session hadn’t been held due the busy agenda both in Macedonia and Serbia. “We had serious negotiations with Greece, an agreement was reached. Now, we have just launched a campaign ahead of the referendum. At the same time, Serbia is committed to finding a solution to the issue with Kosovo. All is set for the session, I believe that at the next session we will discuss the project with all the protocol for signing the treaties and launching cooperation. The joint session will be held by the end of the year, said Vucic.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIA SOURCES

EU eyes Kosovo and Serbia enlargement deal (EUobserver, by Andrew Rettman, 1 September 2018)

EU institutions have voiced hope of a new breakthrough in Western Balkans enlargement, despite “nerves” about land swaps for ethnic reasons. Kosovo and Serbia might normalise relations in a binding agreement in 2019, EU foreign relations chief Federica Mogherini said after EU talks in Vienna on Friday (31 August). “We’re all committed to finalise negotiations in the coming months, before the end of the mandate of this commission … it’s still very difficult, but it’s not impossible,” she said, referring to the European Commission, whose current mandate expires in October next year. “There’s a possibility to finally move on,” Mogherini said. Speculation is mounting that Kosovo and Serbia plan to exchange ethnic enclaves in a territorial swap, paving the way to Serbia’s recognition of Kosovo and, later down the line, to their EU memberships. The US backed the idea earlier in August, saying: “We wouldn’t stand in the way, and I don’t think anybody in Europe would stand in the way”. A Kosovo-Serbia deal would “help those [EU] member states who have not yet recognised Kosovo to arrive at a final decision about it,” Teodor Melescanu, Romania’s foreign minister, said also in Vienna on Friday. Romania, Cyprus, Greece, Slovakia, and Spain as well as Serbia do not recognise Kosovo. But Serbian recognition would still be a leap forward for Western Balkans enlargement, Belgian foreign minister Didier Reynders said. “We need an accord between the two partners, so that, on the Serbian side, we can recognise Kosovo, and the two countries [Serbia and Kosovo] can progress toward the European Union,” Reynders said in the Austrian capital. The importance of the breakthrough would be comparable to the Greece-Macedonia name deal earlier this year, he said. Greece and Macedonia ended a decades-old dispute on Macedonia’s name in June, unlocking Macedonia’s EU and Nato bids. Macedonia now hopes to become an EU member by 2030 and to join Nato next year.

Ethnic purity

Mogherini, who is brokering talks between Kosovo and Serbia’s presidents, said “whatever outcome is mutually agreed [by them] would get our support, provided that it is … in line with international law and with the European Union acquis [laws]”. “European history is based on overcoming and preventing any idea of ethnically pure nation states,” she said. “I hope this reassures people who are getting nervous about some ideas floating around,” she added, as she prepared to resume the Kosovo-Serbia negotiations in Brussels next week. Some Western Balkans foreign ministers, who attended Friday’s EU meeting, echoed Europe’s top diplomat.

“This process ought to be finalised with mutual recognition [by Kosovo and Serbia] in a legally binding agreement,” Albania’s Ditmir Bushati said. Serbia’s Ivica Dacic said: “Serbia is committed to reaching a compromise between Pristina and Belgrade because this would increase stability in the region and would open our path toward the EU”.

Nerves

The deal in the air is to exchange ethnic Serb parts of north Kosovo for the ethnic Albanian Presevo Valley in Serbia. It risks a backlash by nationalists in Kosovo and Serbia. It also risks emboldening Albanians in Macedonia and Croats and Serbs in Bosnia to try to redraw borders fewer than 20 years after the Western Balkan wars ended. Mogherini still had “nervous” heads to “reassure” as the talks move from Vienna to the EU capital next week. “We believe that this [a territorial swap] can tear open too many old wounds in the population and so we’re very sceptical,” German foreign minister Heiko Maas told reporters on Friday. “It could be a little bit risky if it isn’t handled properly”, Finland’s Timo Soini said in Vienna. There could be “very negative consequences”, Luxembourg’s Jean Asselborn said.

US-backed Kosovo land-swap border plan under fire from all sides (The Guardian, by Shaun Walker in Skopje and Andrew MacDowall in Sarajevo, 3 September 2018)

Deal on exchange of territory could pave way for settlement between Belgrade and Pristina

A US-backed land-swap plan to redraw the borders of Kosovo is facing a growing chorus of criticism inside the republic, in the wider region and internationally. The Kosovan president, Hashim Thaçi, and his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vučić, have suggested an exchange of territory could be part of a deal that would pave the way for a final settlement between Belgrade and Pristina. Kosovo broke from Serbia in 1999, and declared its independence in 2008, which Belgrade has never recognised. Vučić and Thaçi have met regularly under the auspices of the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, to hammer out a deal that could put Kosovo on the path to a seat at the UN and improve EU accession prospects for both countries. While neither Vučić nor Thaçi has made the detail of their plans public yet, both acknowledged at a discussion forum in Austria last weekend that border changes were under consideration. A swap would probably involve exchanging territory in southern Serbia, predominantly populated by ethnic Albanians, for part of northern Kosovo with a largely ethnic Serbian population.

The US administration recently gave a boost to the plans when the national security adviser, John Bolton, said Washington would not stand in the way if Belgrade and Pristina reached a deal, reversing a long-held US policy that further border changes in the Balkans are undesirable.

According to two sources familiar with Trump administration’s thinking, the new policy is “no red lines but no blank cheques”, meaning the US is willing to look at any solution, including border changes, but will not necessarily endorse it in the end. Some EU officials have hinted they may also be willing to back a deal that involves border changes. Vučić will face opposition from many at home who would see a deal as admission that Kosovo is lost forever. There is also strong criticism inside Kosovo, notably from the prime minister, Ramush Haradinaj, who on Friday referred to the discussions as “disastrous ideas”. He tweeted: “The public discussion on the redesign of borders & exchange of territories is an invitation for new tragedies in the Balkans.” Many regional and international observers have noted the potential for knock-on effects in the region, where some borders remain fragile and open to nationalist challenges.

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has come out strongly against the idea, and three former high representatives to Bosnia have written an open letter to Mogherini, urging her not to back any plans involving land swaps. “We can in short, think of no policy more likely to lead us back to division and conflict in the Balkans than the one which some are apparently now supporting,” wrote Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown and Christian Schwarz-Schilling in the letter. Milorad Dodik, the president of the Serb-dominated autonomous Republika Srpska (RS) entity and a candidate for the national presidency in October elections, has regularly called for RS independence. “I think the EU likes this plan because it’s ‘simple’,” said Lejla Ramić-Mesihović, the executive director of Foreign Policy Initiative BH, a Sarajevo-based thinktank that has been working on the issue. “But what logic will the international community have against an RS referendum? Is now really the time to give up on multi-ethnic states in Europe?” An adviser to Dodik said the concerns were exaggerated. “President Dodik is one of the most experienced politicians in the region and he will do nothing, knowing how important it is for Serbia to close the story with Pristina,” said Ana Trišić-Babić, a former deputy foreign minister of Bosnia. However, there are fears that simply by putting the issue back on the table, it will give fuel to those who wish to reopen questions that had appeared to be long resolved. In Macedonia, which has a large ethnic Albanian minority and was the scene of inter-ethnic clashes in 2001, politicians are wary of any deal involving land swaps. “These ideas have been floating around throughout the Balkan wars, and this country has always been very firm in supporting political solutions to political problems that do not require ethnic borders,” said Radmila Šekerinska, Macedonia’s minister of defence. “We need to remind ourselves that the biggest atrocities were committed with that aim, or with that excuse, in mind.” Another key question is whether Russia can be brought onside for any deal. Vučić is due to meet the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, twice in the coming months, and so far Moscow has given little indication of whether it is ready to drop its long-held opposition to Kosovan independence. Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, said it was down to Belgrade and Pristina to agree a deal, but pointedly said “the deal has to reflect the interests of the Serb people” if Russia is to back it. She declined to clarify how Russia would assess these interests.

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