Serbian formula “Both the EU and Russia”, by which Belgrade answered to the Ukrainian crisis, so far, has proved as a very good policy, but, according to analysts, it is unlikely that Serbia will be able to keep this position forever. One of the reasons for this opinion is that these days Brussels announced a new, third round of sanctions against Moscow. This means that the Ukrainian crisis enters a new phase, in which the dispute between Russia on one side and Brussels and Washington on the other will be more severe than so far.
At the same time, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic repeated for the Russian media that Serbia has not and will not introduce any sanctions against the Russian Federation. “Serbia is an independent state and it brings decisions about its relations with traditional friends independently,” said Vucic in an interview broadcasted on the television channel Russia 1. He added that Serbia, in a difficult period, confirmed to Russia that it is its best friend in Europe, and that two countries will continue to develop joint projects.
Serbia’s stance towards the situation in Ukraine was commented during the meeting of Serbian officials with John Baird, Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Serbian Foreign Minister, Ivica Dacic, reiterated that Serbia supports the territorial integrity of Ukraina, but because of its economic interests did not participate in sanctions against Russia, or in Russian sanctions against the EU.
Former president of Serbia and leader of the New Democratic Party, Boris Tadic stated that he supports this government policy, but he is still convinced that “next year we can face a difficult situation, because conflicts do not subside, but contrary to it, grow.” Serbia, he said, cannot become member of the Eurasian Union, since it does not belong geographically to that bloc of countries. As he said, Serbia cannot belong to other political alliances, so that its foreign policy should be extremely balanced, when it comes to economic and strategic interests, but always reconciled with the EU policy.
Analyst Dragomir Andjelkovic considers the term “balanced policy” as wrong. “You can lead a balanced policy when it comes to foreign interests and to try to reposition own interest between the interests of the others. But when it comes to Serbia, the essence is in its survival and protection of vital national and state interests,” said Andjelkovic. He added that the vital national interests of Serbia are the support for the survival of Republika Srpska, support for blocking entry of Kosovo in the UN, and development of economic processes.
He is convinced that opting against Russia would be masochistic act of Serbia. The West, as he says, may ask us anything, like once the Nazis asked Milan Nedic to send troops to the eastern front, what he refused. “When we resist pressures to turn against Russia we are not doing it for the Russians; we are doing it in order to protect Serbian interests. If we would turn against Russia, we would work directly against us,” stated Andjelkovic.
For now, the West and Russia treat Belgrade in a delicate way and there are no excessive pressure from either side, evaluates Dusan Lazic, a long-time diplomat. “A strong pressure on Serbia is not in the interest of the West, or Russia. Neither of them wants to aggravate situation with Serbia. Both want to provide the highest possible influence in Serbia, and such avoid the pressures, even when politically it does not quite suit them. But if the crisis continues and further deepen, Serbia will have to opt. And then Serbia will have to start from facts, and not from sympathies,” Lazic said.
